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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Eli Beracha; Wintoki Babajide; Kim Emily; Xi Yaoyi |
| Abstract: | This study explores the extent to which highly skilled immigrants affect local housing prices by exploiting exogenous inflow of highly skilled immigrants to an area through the H-1B visa lottery program. Our results suggest that an influx of highly skilled and high-income immigrants increases the demand for housing. Specifically, our findings show that greater inflow of highly skilled immigrants leads to higher local housing price appreciation. This positive relationship between the influx of highly skilled immigrants and housing price appreciation is stronger in areas with faster overall population growth and in areas with inelastic land supply. However, additional findings show that the inflow of highly skilled workers does not significantly affect local rent prices. |
| Keywords: | H-1B visa program; housing; housing appreciation; real estate return |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-049 |
| By: | Vahid Saadi; Omar Rachedi |
| Abstract: | We show in this paper that tax exemptions on income from municipal bonds distort bank mortgage lending standards. Banks in states with a larger tax exemption hold more municipal bonds on their balance sheets. These holdings expose banks to local risks, in particular to real estate risk as municipal bonds are financed to a large extent via property tax revenues with a large elasticity with respect to house prices. We show that banks with a higher share of municipal bonds on their balance sheets divert their mortgage originations out of their home states by relaxing their mortgage lending standards. We provide evidence that this geographical diversification is costly in that banks with higher municipal bond holdings lend to low FICO score and high debt-to-income ratio borrowers away from their home states without a corresponding risk premium in interest rates charged. |
| Keywords: | Geographical diversification; Lending standards; Mortgage originations; municipal bonds |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-042 |
| By: | Eugenio Muccio; Hilde Remoy; Maria Cerreta |
| Abstract: | In the active landscape of contemporary urban development, the intricate interplay between tourism dynamics and the real estate market has emerged as a critical area of concern. Tourist cities, characterized by their diverse urban functions and services, face complex phenomena that reverberate through the real estate markets. This research addresses the need to make explicit and quantify the impacts of tourism on residential real estate values within the context of these multifaceted urban environments.The purpose of this work is further to spatially evaluate the urban impacts on housing prices resulting from tourism dynamics, taking into account the shift of residential real estate from the ordinary market to the short-term market. By tracking changes over time, this research aims to unveil the spatial patterns and trends in real estate market dynamics in response to touristification processes, ultimately assessing the correlation between tourism dynamics and housing prices change.This work is part of a research that aims to develop a valuation framework that enables decision-makers to understand and visualize the complexities of tourism and real estate issues comprehensively. This integrated approach acknowledges the need for decision-makers to navigate the intricate relationship between tourism and real estate values relying on robust multi-scalar and multi-dimensional monitoring tools, offering a practical solution for informed policy formulation and urban planning strategies.The research methodology considers a data-driven approach in a GIS environment, within the perspective of developing an innovative Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) capable of informing decision-makers in a structured way by means of a spatial-temporal analysis of market values to be overlaid with different variables (housing market, short-term rentals, activities development and cultural processes).These issues are addressed through a case study of Rotterdam, starting from a mapping conducted from fine-grained spatial data on housing transactions over the past dozen years.The resulting maps, obtained through specific data aggregation procedures and classification methods, show the overlay of the considered variables, bringing out spatial patterns, new tourism hotspots and areas of (non-)homogeneous growth with respect to short- and long-term market values, facilitating an effective way of reading the city and its complex evolutionary dynamics.This work provides an advancement in implementing a variable set for evaluating real estate evolutionary dynamics of tourist cities within a spatial-temporal framework, acknowledging such a tool as a key instrument for fostering sustainable urban development models, providing actionable insights for informed decision-making in the complex intersection of tourism and real estate. |
| Keywords: | Housing Prices; Real Estate Market Values; Short-Term Rentals; Tourist Cities |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-170 |
| By: | Justyna Tanas |
| Abstract: | This article aims to determine buyers' revealed preferences in the secondary housing market in Warsaw. The study was conducted based on data on transactions of real estate premises made on the secondary market in Warsaw in 2016-2020. These data were supplemented with the information contained in land and mortgage registers (section II - ownership), in the real estate cadastre, and using Google Street View. After a tidying-up exercise, a database of over 35, 000 residential property transactions was created.The vast majority of buyers' preferences in the residential market in Poland conducted in recent years have been studies of local markets, usually in the largest cities. Most of the time, surveys of declared preferences were conducted using a survey questionnaire, usually targeted surveys that did not meet the sample’s representativeness. The unique database built this way allows the preferences of different buyers (e.g., young people, seniors, singles, married couples, etc.) to be identified in a previously impossible way due to the lack of such databases. |
| Keywords: | buyers' preferences; housing market; revealed vs. stated preferences |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-216 |
| By: | Adam Polko; Wiktoria Jdrusik; Radoslaw Cyran |
| Abstract: | The past three years have witnessed a dynamic surge in prices and rents within Poland's housing markets. The primary macroeconomic drivers behind this escalation are primarily attributed to high inflation, the influx of refugees from war-stricken Ukraine, and government initiatives that include subsidies for housing loans. These factors collectively contribute to an augmented demand in both primary and secondary housing markets, surpassing the current supply. The prevailing trend in the housing market is the dominance of investors viewing housing as a financial asset. In contrast, households perceiving housing as a consumer good face a discernible disadvantage in the current market dynamics.The dynamics within housing markets, inherently confined to local spatial contexts, exhibit non-uniformity. This heterogeneity is particularly pronounced in polycentric metropolises, where substantial variations in housing prices between neighbouring cities are prevalent. The primary objective of this research article is to elucidate the causes and effects of spatial disparities in prices within a polycentric metropolitan housing market. Employing transaction prices as exemplified over the past three years within housing markets of the Upper Silesian Metropolitan Region, the article seeks to address the following research questions: Do housing prices in central areas experience a more rapid escalation compared to those in the periphery? In instances of swift growth in housing prices, do discrepancies between prices in diverse cities intensify? What distinguishing characteristics define areas witnessing the most substantial price hikes, and conversely, those exhibiting minimal increases or even a decline in prices?The search for the reasons for the variation of housing prices in the metropolitan housing market will allow us to better understand the principles of the functioning of housing markets that are located in the immediate vicinity and differ due to the polycentricity of the metropolis. The interest of researchers and practitioners is usually focused on housing markets in the largest cities (in Poland, such as Warsaw, Krakow, Wroclaw, or Katowice) and neglects the analysis of price formation in medium and small cities located in metropolitan areas. Due to their immediate vicinity, transport connectivity, proximity to labour markets, medium and small cities often become an alternative for households unable to buy apartments in the centre of the metropolis. Spatial analysis of housing prices will allow the final section of the research paper to make recommendations for households to purchase housing in diverse metropolitan housing markets. |
| Keywords: | Housing Markets; metropolitan regions; spatial economics |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-135 |
| By: | Adam Polko |
| Abstract: | Urban commons emerge through collective actions by urban communities utilizing shared resources to collaboratively create and share various goods, both material and immaterial (Foster 2013; Polko et al. 2021). Establishing and sustaining commons involves three essential components: shared resources, a community, and a set of rules (social protocol), rendering it a complex phenomenon (Bollier 2014; Harvey 2012). This underscores a unique connection between the community and resources, reflected in the need to safeguard resources and an awareness of their value (Bollier 2014; Bollier, Helfrich (Eds.) 2015). Numerous instances of urban commons exist, ranging from community gardens, community land trusts (CLTs), and repair cafes to friends' park groups, among others (Feinberg et al. 2021). In urban settings, residents in neighbourhoods are increasingly forming communities to enhance the quality of their neighbourhoods or protect places from threats, such as preventing the appropriation of a park by developers. These residents are adopting commoning practices that extend beyond market and state mechanisms to manage shared urban spaces. This research article aims to deepen the understanding of how the process of urban commoning impacts the management of shared spaces in urban residential areas, with a focus on improving quality. The article addresses key research questions: Why and when do residents initiate the commoning process in residential areas? Does the structure, size, and spatial layout of a housing development influence the creation of urban commons? What types of urban commons are produced, and do they enhance housing quality and impact housing prices?Scientific studies have been conducted in various Polish cities, and the research results aim to provide a comprehensive understanding of the interactions among residents of housing estates. Additionally, the findings will offer recommendations on principles for managing shared spaces within housing estates, including squares, parks, backyards, parking lots, etc. |
| Keywords: | commoning; residential area; urban commons |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-153 |
| By: | Ion Anghel; Costin Ciora; Elena Ionascu |
| Abstract: | Urban economic theory predicts that house prices decline with distance from the central business district. Although the price premium in the housing market has been extensively researched, it remains unclear what the influence of central business district (CBD) has on housing prices. This paper aims to provide new insights into the impact of the CBD proximity to dwellings on house prices by focusing on the Bucharest residential market. Over the past few years, Bucharest’s office space market experienced significant growth, but with a greater concentration in certain city areas, affecting the entire real estate market surrounding the office centers. Using transaction data on the Bucharest residential market, this study explores, for the first time, the influence of proximity to the central business district on housing prices, quantifying the price premium and the difference in market time for residential apartments. |
| Keywords: | central business district; housing market; pricing premium |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-202 |
| By: | Konrad Zelazowski; Alina Jdrzejczak; Anna Miklaszewska; Katarzyna Olbinska; Dorota Pekasiewicz; Magdalena Zaczna |
| Abstract: | The mortgage market in majority of developed countries is the foundation of an effective housing finance system. For many households, an available mortgage loan is the only option to achieve housing independence, and it also enables more effective adjustment of the scope and quality of housing services to their needs and expectations. The developed mortgage market also favors increased transaction activity in the housing market, which is particularly important in improving its efficiency and optimal allocation of capital. In the long term, a stable inflow of credit capital stimulates construction investment and has a positive impact on the housing stock.The Polish banking sector has been witnessing the dynamic growth of mortgage market for many years. Despite this, we are still not able to fully answer the basic questions: How many Poles can afford a housing loan? How sensitive is the demand for mortgages to changes in interest rates, real estate prices or the financial capabilities of potential borrowers?The aim of the paper is to measure the affordability of mortgage loans for Poles, taking into account their financial situation and economic reality at the end of 2022. Using CSO microdata, we estimated the percentage of households that, due to their financial constraints, would not be able to take out a mortgage loan to purchase an average-sized dwelling. |
| Keywords: | Housing Finance; mortgage affordability; mortgage market; Polish housing market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-168 |
| By: | Julius Range; Lars Jagemann |
| Abstract: | This study examines the linkage between political uncertainty and residential real estate market behavior in Germany. Using spatial regression techniques to address neighborhood spillover effects, we identify county level residential real estate transaction activity to be negatively associated with increased political uncertainty. We measure political related uncertainty by applying the media-based Uncertainty Perception Index (UPI). We find the results to appear robust in various applied regression specification. Controlling for a broad range of market fundamentals, we find rural areas to be influenced significantly stronger by increasing political uncertainty than urban areas. Further, we use the quarterly flow of building permits to isolate the effect of uprising uncertainty on residential construction activity. Our results indicate a strong negative impact of political uncertainty on issued building permits. The results suggest that political uncertainty not only has a significant impact on the behavior of real estate investors, but also on residential developers. |
| Keywords: | Real Estate Development; Spatial regression; uncertainty measures |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-180 |
| By: | Andrea Delle Foglie; Massimo Biasin |
| Abstract: | Smart Cities are urban areas that leverage technological solutions to enhance the management and efficiency of traditional networks for the benefit of their residents and businesses. This paper presents a systematic literature review based on the SPAR-4-SLR protocol, aimed at analyzing the literature and the progress in Smart Cities research. It specifically focuses on the impact of blockchain technology on the urban environment and its potential to contribute to the development of inclusive and sustainable communities, including financial systems with similar characteristics to serve these societies. The findings reveal a lack of research on practical applications of Distributed Ledger Technologies (DLTs) and blockchain in developing the financial ecosystem of Smart Cities. To address this gap, a future research agenda is proposed, highlighting several research questions that could be useful for academics and practitioners interested in exploring the development of Smart Cities' financial systems. It also highlights the potential of blockchain technology for the real estate market, which is a crucial component of urban organization in smart city constructions. Blockchain can provide a secure and transparent land registry system that reduces fraud, streamlines property transactions, and enhances land management. Therefore, research is needed to develop blockchain-based solutions for land registration, title verification, and property taxation in smart city governance. |
| Keywords: | Distributed Ledger Technologies; real estate; Smart Cities; Sustainable urban environment |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-209 |
| By: | Nicola Stalder; Michael Mayer; Martin E. Hoesli; Steven Bourassa |
| Abstract: | What factors impact residential rents, and how? We use a large dataset of offered rents and of explanatory variables for Switzerland to provide insights concerning the dynamics of the country's residential real estate landscape. Rents are modeled by boosted trees (LightGBM) and analyzed with typical tools from explainable AI. We then focus on an innovative application of SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) values to assess the combined location effect of all geographic variables. Thanks to their additivity, the SHAP values of all geographic variables can be summed up and visualized as heatmaps providing full transperency on local and regional rent levels. We further highlight the impact of considering interaction constraints to bring additional structure to the results and achieving a high interpretability of the model. The methods used for the Swiss market are then applied to a dataset of rents and prices for the largest cities in Poland, including the city of Gdansk. |
| Keywords: | Automated Valuation Models; Boosted Trees; Residential Real Estate; Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-169 |
| By: | Radoslaw Trojanek |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates Poland's potential house price bubbles from Q1 1996 to Q1 2024 using new house and rent price indices based on over 4 million listings. The recursive housing bubble identification procedures developed by Phillips, Shi, and Yu (2015) test will be used to test whether the explosive behaviour of house prices in Poland is linked to household incomes and rents. Earlier studies confirmed explosive house price behaviour during the 2006–2007 period, which was not justified by fundamentals on the city level. The paper aims to investigate the phenomenon of a longer time and aggregated housing price data in Poland. |
| Keywords: | Bubbles; House Price Indices; Housing Prices; rental indices |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-213 |
| By: | Zeynep Onder; dil Ayberk |
| Abstract: | We estimate the price elasticity of housing supply and then provide empirical evidence on the determinants of the estimated elasticities at the province level in Turkey for the 2008Q1–2017Q4 period. The price elasticity of housing supply is a measure that provides information on how housing supply responds to price increases, and it plays a crucial role in urban development. The motivation for studying housing supply elasticity in Turkey stems from several reasons. First, over the last two decades, the construction industry has been the booster of the growth of the Turkish economy, and legal reforms support the rise of the sector by lifting regulatory restrictions on property development. Second, housing affordability has become one of the hot topics in Turkey due to rising house prices and an inflationary environment. We contribute to the housing studies literature by estimating housing supply elasticity and determining the factors that explain the elasticities in an emerging economy. The studies on housing supply elasticities agree that barriers to residential construction in the form of land availability or regulations are the main causes of low supply elasticity. Our results suggest that Turkish provinces have relatively low housing supply elasticity, and in line with the literature, geographical constraints seem to be associated with lower elasticities. We also provide evidence that demographic characteristics and local regulatory conditions matter in this environment. |
| Keywords: | emerging economies; Housing Supply; Price Elasticity; Undevelopable Land |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-211 |
| By: | Cynthia Aubert; Charles Séguin; Andrée De Serres |
| Abstract: | The transportation industry is a vector of important change to meet the challenges of sustainability and resilience of our societies. It is the second largest GHG emitter in Canada, accounting for nearly 28% of the country's total emissions. Among these emissions, 57% were attributable to the travel of Canadians in 2021, of which 30% are linked solely to the use of private cars. To limit their circulation, the development of public transit infrastructure is an effective way. However, such infrastructure has indirect effects on GHG emissions due to its interdependence with the urban planning and its socio-economic characteristics. This research paper aims to evaluate the impact of the commissioning of a public transit infrastructure on the evolution of a city's GHG emissions over time. The case of the Vancouver SkyTrain's Canada Line was analyzed. The methodology used to carry out this study is a synthetic control. This is one of the contributions of this research to the existing literature, whose studies generally only assess the direct effects of a transportation infrastructure from the emissions avoided by the modal shift of passengers. The data analyzed was collected from the open databases of Canadian cities and Statistics Canada. These include GHG emissions in CO2 equivalent, GDP, gasoline and fuel tax revenues, construction investments, number of inhabitants and their transportation habits in the cities in the control group. The results show that the introduction of the Canada Line resulted in an increase of approximately 8.6% in Vancouver's GHG emissions in 2011. This increase could be explained by the redevelopment of neighborhoods around infrastructure stations to the detriment of their gentrification, accentuating urban sprawl. For an investment in a sustainable means of transport to effectively reduce GHG emissions in the long term, more emphasis should be placed on the interactions between transport, urban development (to be built or renovated) and the socio-economic characteristics of neighborhoods. Studies with more spatial precision would provide a better understanding of the interweaving of social, economic, and environmental changes generated by transportation infrastructure and affecting a city's GHG emissions. |
| Keywords: | Greenhouse gas emissions; Public transportation infrastructure; Sustainable city; Sustainable mobility |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-150 |
| By: | Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; Henry de Frahan, Rosalie |
| Abstract: | Education plays a crucial role in promoting innovation, entrepreneurship, and equal opportunities in society, acting as a “social elevator.” However, an inequitable educational system can perpetuate inequalities, leading to significant social consequences. This paper examines two mechanisms through which schooling systems may generate or reinforce inequalities: private schooling and school composition. Earlier studies often suggested that private schooling, particularly government-dependent private schools, had a positive impact on student achievement. However, more recent research has challenged this view, highlighting the importance of contextual factors such as school composition and socio-economic background. Building on these findings, our analysis explores how the advantages attributed to private schools are shaped by the demographic profiles of their students. Using data from the OECD Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2015 and employing an education production function, we assess the effects of private schooling and school composition on student performance. Our findings contribute to the growing body of research questioning the comparative advantage of private schools, demonstrating that their perceived superiority often arises from the socio-economic advantages of the students they enroll, rather than the quality of education provided. The study also reveals significant variations across countries, underscoring the urgent need to address the segregation issues linked to private school networks. |
| Keywords: | education; private schooling; school composition effect; segregation; inequalities |
| JEL: | I21 I28 J24 H52 |
| Date: | 2024–10–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125628 |
| By: | Anett Wins; Marcelo Cajias; Rebecca Restle |
| Abstract: | Using artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms, modern location analysis evaluates attractiveness almost in real time. In this paper we explore the relationship between amenities and residential asking rents in several large European cities. The study introduces the Amenities Magnet Score (AMS) differentiated by seven basic living needs as crucial metric for assessing and evaluating the attractiveness of urban locations. Research results emphasize the critical role of amenities and their impact on residential rental prices: It highlights that the AMS directly correlates with rental prices in European cities, with higher AMS associated with rental premiums. Different types of amenities affect rental prices variably, and there are threshold effects where rental premiums stabilize or sharply increase as the AMS reaches certain thresholds, highlighting the nuanced relationship between amenities and rental values.Findings offer valuable insights for real estate investors seeking to understand and navigate the dynamics of urban rental markets and developing strategies for asset allocation that capitalize on the demand for amenities. |
| Keywords: | AI; Amenities Magnet Score (AMS); GAM; residential rental pricing |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-191 |
| By: | Chiara Mazzarella; Hilde Remoy |
| Abstract: | This study delves into the significance of temporary uses initiated by non-profit entities in vacant real estate assets, with a particular focus on the diverse benefits arising from community management. Certain non-profit entities serve as intermediaries between urban communities and property owners, facilitating the temporary utilization of real estate. Through these initiatives, a variety of activities are activated, thereby enhancing community engagement, social cohesion, and local initiatives. However, traditional valuation methods often fail to fully capture the values derived from such endeavors, which encompass social, cultural, and environmental dimensions.To address this gap, the research employs a methodology that blends qualitative assessments with quantitative analyses to comprehensively evaluate the value of experimental temporary uses. By integrating qualitative assessments such as community impact evaluations and stakeholder engagement with quantitative metrics like economic impact analysis, a more holistic understanding of the multidimensional value of these temporary uses is attained.The beneficiaries of these values are diverse, spanning various sectors including the local community, residents, businesses, and policymakers. Community-driven initiatives significantly contribute to social cohesion, cultural enrichment, and environmental sustainability, thereby enhancing the overall quality of life in the neighborhood. Businesses may experience benefits such as increased foot traffic and heightened consumer engagement resulting from community activities. Policymakers and urban planners can leverage insights from this study to inform decision-making processes, urban development strategies, and policies that acknowledge the pivotal role of temporary communities in creating value from vacant spaces and revitalizing neighborhoods.Through the integration of diverse perspectives and valuation techniques, this study aims to explore the multiple outcomes of community-managed temporary uses in vacant real estate. Understanding and quantifying the multidimensional values generated by non-profit-led initiatives can inform policy decisions, urban planning strategies, and real estate development practices to recognize the agency of temporary communities in creating value from vacancies and enhancing the neighborhood. |
| Keywords: | non-profit entities; temporary uses; vacant real estate; Value Creation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-217 |
| By: | Thiemo Fetzer; Jacob Edenhofer; Prashant Garg |
| Abstract: | Support for right-wing populist parties is characterised by considerable regional heterogeneity and especially concentrated in regions that have experienced economic decline. It remains unclear, however, whether the spatial externalities of local decline, including homelessness and crime, boost support for populist parties, even among those not directly affected by such decline. In this paper, we contribute to filling this gap in two ways. First, we gather novel data on a particularly visible form of local decline, high-street vacancies, that comprise 83, 000 premises in England and Wales. Second, we investigate the influence of local decline on support for the right-wing populist UK Independence Party (UKIP) between 2009 and 2019. We find a significant positive association between high-street vacancy rates and UKIP support. These results enhance our understanding of how changes in the lived environment shape political preferences and behaviour, particularly in relation to right-wing populism. |
| Keywords: | local economic conditions, populism, high-street vacancies, spatial externalities |
| JEL: | Z13 R23 D72 C83 P36 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11325 |
| By: | Julius Range; Albert Erasmus Grafe |
| Abstract: | Economic profitability of land development is a major driver for land consumption but is prone to increasing political scrutiny and environmental concerns. Our paper aims to quantify the income tax effects of increases in residential areas in Germany. We estimate the effect based on a detailed synchronized panel database for German counties. Applying a spatial regression approach, we address the heterogeneity of regions as well as neighboring and spill-over effects. Our findings suggest that an increase in residential areas has a significant positive effect on income tax revenue. We relate these estimates to average costs for green- and brownfield development. Our research sheds new light on the interplay between revenues and costs in residential land development. |
| Keywords: | Land Consumption; Spatial regression; tax revenues; Urban Development |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-078 |
| By: | Sviatlana Engerstam |
| Abstract: | Despite the extensive international interest in house price dynamics and the growing body of research in this area, until now it was not that evident what is the size of the fundamental factors potential impact on house price dynamics over the long run. This study provides an overview of empirical studies on the fundamental determinants of house prices in advanced economies at the aggregated level. The synthesis includes 67 selected journal articles published in 58 top-tier housing, urban and real estate journals during the last five decades (1973-2023) and represents a summary of the developments in the field of housing economics related to house price dynamics.The results of the study suggest that most of the research on house price determinants employed quantitative methodology with a wide variety of econometric techniques. The study defines fundamental determinants of house prices over the long run, classifies them in relation to the size of their elasticities and emphasizes the differences between them. In addition, the study describes the role of data sources as well as quality and modelling techniques, and discusses the impact of inflation, momentum, mean reversion and housing market efficiency. |
| Keywords: | advanced economies; fundamental determinants; House price dynamics |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-219 |
| By: | Fetzer, Thiemo (University of Warwick & Bonn and affiliated with CEPR, CAGE, NIESR, ECONtribute, Grantham Institute.); Edenhofer, Jacob (University of Oxford); Garg, Prashant (Imperial College London) |
| Abstract: | Support for right-wing populist parties is characterised by considerable regional heterogeneity and especially concentrated in regions that have experienced economic decline. It remains unclear, however, whether the spatial externalities of local decline, including homelessness and crime, boost support for populist parties, even among those not directly affected by such decline. In this paper, we contribute to filling this gap in two ways. First, we gather novel data on a particularly visible form of local decline, high-street vacancies, that comprise 83, 000 premises in England and Wales. Second, we investigate the influence of local decline on support for the right-wing populist UK Independence Party (UKIP) between 2009 and 2019. We find a significant positive association between high-street vacancy rates and UKIP support. These results enhance our understanding of how changes in the lived environment shape political preferences and behaviour, particularly in relation to right-wing populism. |
| Keywords: | Local Economic Conditions, Populism, High-street Vacancies, Unemployment, Urban Transformation JEL Classification: D72, R11, R12, R23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:716 |
| By: | Elizabeth Setren |
| Abstract: | School assignment policies are a key lever to increase access to high performing schools and to promote racial and socioeconomic integration. For over 50 years, the Metropolitan Council for Educational Opportunity (METCO) has bussed students of color from Boston, Massachusetts to relatively wealthier and predominantly White suburbs. Using a combination of digitized historical records and administrative data, I analyze the short and long run effects of attending a high-performing suburban school for applicants to the METCO program. I compare those with and without offers to enroll in suburban schools. I use a two-stage least squares approach that utilizes the waitlist assignment priorities and controls for a rich set of characteristics from birth records and application data. Attending a suburban school boosts 10th grade Math and English test scores by 0.13 and 0.21 standard deviations respectively. The program reduces dropout rates by 75 percent and increases on-time high school graduation by 13 percentage points. The suburban schools increase four-year college aspirations by 17 percentage points and enrollment by 21 percentage points. Participation results in a 12 percentage point increase in four-year college graduation rates. Enrollment increases average earnings at age 35 by $16, 250. Evidence of tracking to lower performing classes in the suburban schools suggests these effects could be larger with access to more advanced coursework. Effects are strongest for students whose parents did not graduate college. |
| JEL: | I20 I21 I23 I24 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11320 |
| By: | Alba Miñano-Mañero |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how geography shapes the legacy of redlining, the systemic mortgage lending bias against minority us neighborhoods. On average, redlined neighborhoods lag behind adjacent, less-discriminated areas in home values, income, and racial composition. Yet, redlined neighborhoods near parks and water fare better. To help understand convergence, we inventory waterfront renovations, apply machine learning to historical imagery to track tree canopy changes, and instrument such changes exploiting tree replacements due to geographic variation in tree plagues and susceptible species. Findings suggest that enhancing waterfronts and increasing tree canopy can mitigate the long-lasting effects of institutionalized discrimination. |
| Keywords: | redlining, geography, natural amenities, waterfronts, tree canopy. |
| JEL: | R23 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03532024 |
| By: | Adam Czerniak; Patrycja Graca-Gelert |
| Abstract: | Goal: To jointly analyse different approaches to housing inequality in search of similarity patterns across various coexisting housing regimes in Europe.Research hypothesis: Each variety of residential capitalism (i.e. housing regime) exhibits its own pattern of housing inequalities.Research method: Using microdata from the newest Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) wave 2021 [for Poland, data from the wave 2017 was used], we calculated various measures of housing inequality for 20 EU member states. We consider housing space inequality and the size of multiple homeownership, as well as gross and net housing wealth inequality, both for the whole population and for homeowners only. Additionally, we have added Eurostat data on housing cost overburden and housing over- and undercrowding rates. On this data set we performed k-means cluster analysis to search for patterns of similarity between the analysed countries.Main findings: The calculations showed that the k-means cluster composition almost perfectly overlapped with the classifications of housing regimes in Europe. In other words, we have identified that each variety of residential capitalism exhibits its own distinct housing inequality patterns. In statist countries such as Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, and France, there are high housing wealth inequalities but much lower inequalities in housing space and costs. In turn, corporatist countries such as Belgium, Ireland, and Finland exhibit medium wealth inequalities but high housing space and cost inequalities. Mediterranean member states, also denoted as countries with a commodified familial model of residential capitalism, have developed the largest class of homeowners, where, on average, 18% of households own two or more residential estates. This increases housing wealth inequalities, especially when considering mortgage debt, but has no effect on space inequalities which is one of the lowest among all analysed countries. Finally, Central and Eastern European countries, also called super-ownership states, which exhibit a non-commodified familial model of residential capitalism, have the lowest housing wealth inequalities, with 72% of households owning just one residential property, which they occupy, but they have very high space inequalities, with almost a quarter of the population living in overcrowded dwellings and medium to large housing cost inequalities. These results indicate that each housing regime requires a unique housing policy approach to mitigate future housing inequalities. |
| Keywords: | housing inequality; housing regimes; Housing Wealth; varieties of residential capitalism |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-221 |
| By: | Ka Man Leung; Lennon Hung Tat Choy |
| Abstract: | This study examines if metro served major housing estates in Hong Kong gentrify faster than non-metro served ones. If so, in what distance does this effect last? Data of the latest population censuses conducted in 2016 and 2021 are employed in the analyses. Controlling the changes in population characteristics, the results show that major housing estates with metro served within 250m gentrified faster than non-metro served ones (in terms of all three gentrification indicators). The effects lessened when larger sized buffers are employed. Meanwhile, the effects of new stations are also revealed through the analyses. These results provide a fuller picture of how gentrification happens in rental housing with different metro accessibility, which are important references for academic research and policy implementations. |
| Keywords: | Difference-in-differences approach; Gentrification; Major housing estates; Metro accessibility |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-192 |
| By: | Dauth, Wolfgang (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung); Mense, Andreas (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg); Wrede, Matthias (Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the employment effects of living in affordable housing. We develop a unique administrative data set of labor market biographies linked to affordable housing projects in five German cities. This allows us to follow individuals in affordable housing over almost 20 years. The funding scheme is similar to the American LIHTC program, so the results are applicable beyond Germany. We use an event study design to exploit the quasi-random timing and allocation of applicants to units. Our findings show that access to affordable housing increases labor income and job quality while decreasing the likelihood of being unemployed. We explain these results by four mechanisms. These mechanisms work through a higher centrality of affordable units, enabling investment in work-related skills, improved housing stability, and increasing work incentives due to reduced housing benefit payments. |
| Keywords: | affordable housing, unemployment, urban labor market access, labor supply, housing policy |
| JEL: | I31 I38 J13 R23 R38 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17359 |
| By: | Alexander Daminger; Simon Wiersma |
| Abstract: | We examine foreclosure discounts and their subsequent impact on investor returns in Berlin's housing market from 1984 to 2022. Utilizing hedonic regression models and matching techniques on a data set of housing transactions, we determine that foreclosure discounts, ranging from 20% to 50%, are significant and persist over time. A repeat sales approach, which considers the sequence of sales, shows that initial investments in foreclosed properties yield average annualized returns surpassing matched non-distressed counterparts by 20.5 percentage points. However, when a foreclosure follows a regular sale, the average annualized returns are 9.6 percentage points lower than in matched non-distressed transaction pairs. Our ability to control for both observed and unobserved property characteristics via repeat sales suggests that these disparities may be attributed to both a foreclosure stigma and the format used for foreclosure auctions in Germany. Consequently, our paper not only advances the foreclosure literature with new insights from a global city but also contributes to the discourse on auctions in a real estate context. |
| Keywords: | distressed properties; foreclosure auction; foreclosure discount; Real Estate Investment |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-188 |
| By: | Cueto, Santiago; Beuermann, Diether; Cristia, Julian P.; Malamud, Ofer; Pardo, Francisco |
| Abstract: | This paper examines a large-scale randomized evaluation of the One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) program in 531 rural primary schools, as implemented by the Peruvian government starting in 2009. We use administrative and survey data on academic achievement and grade progression through 2019 to estimate the long-run effects of educational technology on i) academic performance and grade progression in schools over time and ii) student trajectories as they progress from primary school to university. We find negative and significant effects on completing primary and secondary education on time but no effects on achievement. We find positive and significant impacts on students' computer skills but no effects on broader cognitive skills. Information on teacher training and computer utilization suggests limited benefits of providing educational technology without sufficient pedagogical support. |
| Keywords: | Education;technology;Evaluation |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13786 |
| By: | Johannes Braun; Karim Rochdi |
| Abstract: | Despite the existence of alternative, more sophisticated approaches, the capitalization rate (cap rate) constitutes the centre of practitioners’ evaluation of real estate assets to this date. A cap rate translates the current income of a property into a justified transaction price, considering both risks of the respective property as well as its growth opportunities. In light of the importance of the concept for practitioners world-wide, availability of recent academic research on the constituting factors of cap rates is rather sparse.Several existing studies focus on the intertemporal variance in cap rate time series (see for example Evans (1990), or Jud and Winkler (1995)). Another branch of research seeks to explain differences in the cap rate cross-section of different real estate sub-sectors (see for example Ambrose and Nourse (1993), Plazzi et al. (2010), or Beracha et al. (2017)). The third aspect evoking past academic research interest is the geographic cross-sectional variance of cap rates. Chichernea et al. (2008) use Real Capital Analytics (RCA) multifamily cap rate data and find a strong relationship to supply constraints for the cross-section of U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Fisher et al. (2021) perform an analysis on U.S. equity real estate investment trusts, showing that those companies with property portfolios in high-density areas have lower implied cap rates. Biakowski, Titman, and Twite (2023) find for the office sector that cap rates are lower for wealthier cities, and lower for CBD markets compared to suburban markets, utilizing data for 33 developed and developing countries.Taking up the existing research on geographic variance in cap rates, this study attempts to analyse the impact of economic diversification on cap rates. More precisely, the relationship between the degree of diversification across different NAICS industries in U.S. MSAs and the cap rates of the sub-sectors office, retail, industrial, and multi-family is studied. For this means, cap rate averages by sub-sector are regressed on a measure for economic diversification by MSA, using RCA transaction cap rate data as the dependent and NAICS industry diversification as the independent variable, along with a sample of controls in a panel framework for the time period between 2011 and 2022.Preliminary results suggest a negative relationship between economic diversification and cap rates, indicating real estate in MSAs with higher focus on specific industries are traded at a discount compared to real estate in diversified MSAs. Market participants seem to consider industry diversification as a systematic risk factor and therefor demand a premium for properties in well-diversified areas. |
| Keywords: | CAP rate; Diversification |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-140 |
| By: | Hannah Salzberger; Tobias Just |
| Abstract: | Following the Covid-19 pandemic, the future of office buildings has become a popular topic, heightened by the pervasive adoption of the work-from-home model. As remote work transitions from being a rare obscurity to a part of daily routines, the spatial dynamics of office locations undergo a profound reassessment in terms of cost-benefit analysis for central and peripheral office space. This research presents a model that illustrates the optimal or minimum aggregated travel cost location based on distinct working modes. Initially, a city model is introduced, operating on the premise that individuals prioritize proximity to their workplace. The central focus revolves around the dichotomy between central business districts (CBD) and peripheral office locations, envisioning at first a monocentric city with higher population density near the CBD. This framework compares aggregated commuting costs to the CBD against those associated with travel to peripheral office locations. Subsequently, four satellite office locations are evaluated in relation to the Central Business District (CBD) based on their aggregated commuting costs. The analysis distinguishes between two distinct working models: team-dependent tasks and tasks that can be performed independently, suggesting a transformative shift in the role of office spaces towards collaborative hubs on the one hand and traditional space facilitating single-desk office work. A simulation is employed to vary team sizes, determining whether, for each size and working model, offices are better situated in the city center or on the outskirts. By contributing to the ongoing discourse on the evolution of office spaces, this study aims to provide valuable insights into the optimal office location based on commuting costs, considering the nature of collaborative and individual work models. |
| Keywords: | Aggregated travel costs; Monocentric city model; Office location; Spatial Allocation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-143 |
| By: | Klaudia Tomasik |
| Abstract: | The affordability of housing in Poland has been declining in recent years. According to data from the National Census, the population of Poland in 2021 was more than 38.036 million, while the number of housing units was more than 15.227 million. Using the indicator of the number of housing units per 1, 000 residents, it can be calculated that the numerical dimension of housing availability is 400.35, of which 12.1% are unoccupied. The average size of housing stock for EU countries is 501.95 housing units per 1, 000 citizens. Which means that Poland does not compare well in this comparison. There are many reasons contributing to this situation, such as the rising cost of housing, the increase in mortgage interest rates, and the country's housing policy. In Poland, the insufficient number of dwellings is a serious social, economic and political problem. Also under discussion is how to measure housing affordability. Previous methods were based mainly on the economic aspect, while as described above in this also represents a social and political problem. The main reason for addressing this topic is the ever-increasing problem of housing affordability and the ongoing debate in the scientific and political community over the shape of Polish housing policy. The main problems of Polish housing policy are the lack of a coherent housing policy, lack of stability and long-term action. The main objective is to identify recommendations and courses of action for Polish housing policy that could help improve the housing situation of Polish society. |
| Keywords: | Housing Affordability; housing affordability index; Housing Policy |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-204 |
| By: | Xing, Yan; Pike, Susan; Waechter, Maxwell; DeLeon, Graham; Lipatova, Liubov; Handy, Susan; Wang, Yunshi |
| Abstract: | Transportation-disadvantaged populations often face significant challenges in meeting their basic travel needs. Microtransit, a technology-enabled transit mobility solution, has the potential to address these issues by providing on-demand, affordable, and flexible services with multi-passenger vehicles. The ways in which microtransit supports underserved populations and the factors influencing its adoption are not well-studied, however. This research examines SmaRT Ride, a microtransit pilot program in the Sacramento, California, area operated by Sacramento Regional Transit. The project evaluates a broad range of factors influencing microtransit adoption and travel behavior among underserved populations using original revealed choice survey data collected from February – May 2024 with online and intercept surveys. A descriptive analysis revealed that SmaRT Ride has improved transportation access for these communities, complements the transit system by connecting fixed-route transit, and offers a cost-effective alternative to other transportation modes. A binary logistic regression was employed to explore differences between microtransit users and non-users with microtransit awareness. The results indicate that homeownership, employment status, frequency of public transit service use, and attitude towards transit significantly affect microtransit use. Homeowners are more likely to use microtransit, while households without employed members are less likely. In contrast, part-time employees show a higher inclination to use microtransit. Regular public transit users are also more likely to incorporate microtransit into their routines, with a positive attitude toward public transit further increasing the likelihood of its use. The nuanced understanding of microtransit adoption presented here can inform targeted strategies to promote its use among transportation-disadvantaged groups. The results suggest that integrating microtransit with existing transit, outreach programs, discounted or free access, extended service hours, and supporting homeownership and affordable housing in transit-rich areas can encourage microtransit adoption by low-income and/or underserved individuals. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, underserved populations, SmaRT Ride, microtransit adoption, transportation access |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9863j1fz |
| By: | Edmark, Karin (Stockholm University); Hussain, Iftikhar (University of Sussex); Haelermans, Carla (Maastricht University) |
| Abstract: | Research on voucher schools has mainly focused on whether students experience improved academic results in these schools and whether they generate competitive pressure for public schools. In this paper we focus instead on the role voucher schools might play in altering the menu of options available to students, for example with respect to vocational and academic tracks for adolescents. The setting for this paper is the period of rapid expansion of voucher schools in Sweden. Exploiting fine‐grained geographical information on students’ home location as well as variation in exposure across siblings, we uncover new evidence demonstrating that the introduction of voucher schools induces greater vocational education participation, and not simply a substitution of public for private vocational schools. In effect, voucher school penetration leads to a switch away from academic tracks, including academic science subjects, in favor of vocational options. We then assess the impact on medium‐ and long‐term outcomes. The results demonstrate that voucher school penetration has a negative impact on the probability that the highest qualification is in a STEM subject by age 30. The results also reveal a negative impact on long‐term labor market outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Private provision; independent schools; voucher school reform; vocational education; upper secondary education. |
| JEL: | H44 I21 I26 I28 |
| Date: | 2024–10–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2024_017 |
| By: | Till Kösters (Institute of Transport Economics, Muenster); Jan Wessel (Institute of Transport Economics, Muenster); Sebastian Specht (Institute of Transport Economics, Muenster) |
| Abstract: | The fundamental diagram of traffic congestion states that driving speed generally decreases with traffic flow, and that marginal decreases become more pronounced for higher flows. We find, however, that this seemingly fundamental relationship breaks down when only very few cars are on the road, and speed actually increases with traffic flow. To reveal this surprising finding, we use a unique large-scale real-world dataset with per-minute traffic observations from the German Autobahn, and control for confounders of the speed-flow relationship in a fixed-effects regression model. By linking our robust results to psychological research on social interaction effects in traffic, we then discuss potential reasons for this behaviour. |
| Keywords: | speed-flow relationship, fundamental diagram of traffic congestion, traffic psychology |
| JEL: | R41 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mut:wpaper:41 |
| By: | Lars Jagemann; Steffen Sebastian; Laurenz Wörner |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the developments of asking rents and public rent indices in a sample of selected German cities. As the rent indices compiled by local authorities serve as regulatory bases for rent controls in Germany, the analysis aims at quantifying the gap between rent prices offered by landlords and price ceilings determined by local rent indices. Using data manually drawn from rent index reports and a nationwide asking rent database, we identify a growing gap, both in absolute and relative terms: while asking rents have risen sharply, official rent indices have been more reserved due in parts to their methodology. This gap appears to be more pronounced in dense cities, while the gap shrinks in more scarcely populated cities. We find the results to be significant over time. Our results suggest that the current regime of rent price indices is ineffective, stressing the need for future reforms. |
| Keywords: | Asking rents; German Housing Market; Rent Control; rent development |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-182 |
| By: | Robert Lasser; Fabian Hollinetz |
| Abstract: | In the realm of Automated Valuation Models (AVM) for real estate, incorporating nuanced features can significantly enhance the accuracy of property valuation. We are introducing a novel feature in our AVM framework aimed at capturing the impact of heating energy demand on the market value of real estate properties. Leveraging a combination of machine learning techniques and statistical modeling, our approach involves two key steps.First, utilizing a robust dataset of real estate transactions, we employ XGBoost models to predict heating energy demand for properties lacking such information. This imputation process enables us to generate comprehensive estimates of heating energy demand across a diverse range of properties.Secondly, we integrate tensor interaction effects within Generalized Additive Models (GAM) to analyze the relationship between heating energy demand and property value, considering crucial factors such as the construction year of the real estate objects. By incorporating tensor interaction effects, we are able to capture complex nonlinear relationships and interactions, allowing for a more nuanced understanding of how heating energy demand influences property valuation over time.Through the implementation of this advanced feature, our AVM framework offers real estate practitioners and stakeholders a more comprehensive tool for accurately assessing property values. This research contributes to the evolving landscape of real estate valuation methodologies, demonstrating the efficacy of combining machine learning with statistical modeling techniques to capture multifaceted influences on property value. |
| Keywords: | Automated Valuation Models (AVM); Heating Energy Demand, ; Machine Learning; Real Estate Valuation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-196 |
| By: | Bernhard Funk |
| Abstract: | US commerical real estate markets have shown very low transaction activity in 2023. The begin of year 2024 has not brought significant change to this trend. 2024 will show an increase in commercial real estate debt volumes coming due. Following lower transaction activity, loan extensions and loan modifications are in demand from property owners. At the same time higher interest rates have prompted developers struggling to secure suitable funding from lenders.As property cash flow fundamentals detoriate especially in parts of the office sector, distressed debt volumes have increased. So have delinquency rates, including delinquencies for CMBS. During the Great Recession financial turmoil originating in the CMBS markets has triggered widespread banking failures.This paper looks at the current state of US markets for commercial real estate finance. It covers three fundamental questions:How do US lenders react to current changes in commercial real estate market fundamentals?How do US supervisory authorities react to current market distress? What are the medium-term expectations for the changes in the supply side of markets for commercial real estate finance? |
| Keywords: | Banks; Cmbs; Real Estate Finance; US Real Estate Markets |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-218 |
| By: | Lena Abou El-Komboz; Thomas A. Fackler; Moritz Goldbeck; Thomas Fackler |
| Abstract: | Software engineering is prototypical of knowledge work in the digital economy and exhibits strong geographic concentration, with Silicon Valley as the epitome of a tech cluster. We investigate productivity effects of knowledge worker agglomeration. To overcome existing measurement challenges, we track individual contributions in software engineering projects between 2015 and 2021 on GitHub, the by far largest online code repository platform. Our findings demonstrate individual productivity increases by 2.8 percent with a ten percent increase in cluster size, the share of the software engineering community in a technology field located in the same city. Instrumental variable and dynamic estimation results suggest these productivity effects are causal. Productivity gains from cluster size growth are strongest for clusters hosting between 0.67 and 13.5% of a community. We observe a disproportionate activity increase in high-quality, large, and leisure projects and for co-located teams. Overall, software engineers benefit from productivity spillovers due to physical proximity to a large number of peers in their field. |
| Keywords: | high-skilled labor, geography, innovation, peer effects, collaboration |
| JEL: | D62 J24 O33 O36 R32 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11277 |
| By: | Hessami, Zohal (Ruhr University Bochum); Schirner, Sebastian (Ruhr University Bochum) |
| Abstract: | We study whether the arrival of a new immigrant wave changes natives' acceptance of former immigrants and their descendants. We exploit the 2015 European refugee crisis and the context of German open-list local council elections where voting for immigrant-origin candidates represents a consequential revealed preference. We combine hand-collected candidate-level election data with administrative asylum seeker data. Continuous difference-in-differences estimations (based on municipal %∆ in asylum seekers) reveal that immigrant-origin candidates receive more votes the more asylum seekers arrived locally. This shift in social group boundaries is driven by candidates with a Southern/Eastern European origin being culturally similar to Germans. |
| Keywords: | immigration, immigrant-origin candidates, local elections, social acceptance, cultural similarity |
| JEL: | D72 F22 J11 J15 N34 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17343 |
| By: | Peter Parlasca |
| Abstract: | The upswing of the housing markets started in Europe around 2014 even without being hampered by the Covid crisis. However, from summer 2022, signals for the end of the house price bubbles could be seen in many European countries due to Ukraine war related effects supply shortages, increasing inflation and raising interest rates. The down turn affected first Denmark and Germany. In the third quarter 2023 already 10 countries showed house price levels below the previous year.New statistics at the European level and the availability of house sales figures not only in indices for numbers and volume but in physical numbers and the turnover in national currency allows better analysis in particular an earlier detection of downturns and upswings. The development of house prices differed widely between European countries and will be put into perspective with the development of economic activity within Europe.In contrast to the economic developments, housing markets in a small number of European countries did not yet reach the pre-crisis level until 2023 although the upswing of the housing markets started in Europe around 2014. On the other hand, in a significant number of European countries house prices doubled between 2008 and 2023.The data on quarterly house sales (indices of number of transactions and volume) now complemented by additional information seem to be a promising data source to develop projections of the housing market in many European countries. |
| Keywords: | Data Analysis; House Prices; house sales statistics; Real Estate Statistics |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-151 |
| By: | Ksenija Bogosavljevic; Steve Caudill; Anita Pennathur |
| Abstract: | Setting the list price when selling a house is generally a finely-honed decision for both the seller and the real estate broker. An accurate initial price provides the optimal balance between setting the price that is low enough to attract several buyers while pricing it high enough to receive what she believes is the true value of the property. Yet, the initial pricing decision is not set in stone. A seller may set the price too low, and then realize that she has underpriced, given the interest shown by potential buyers of her property. On the other hand, she may have overestimated the value of her property, and her listing may not have much activity. In either scenario, the seller has the option to change the price to reset to the market interest, either by increasing or decreasing the initial list price. Our study examines the influence of price fluctuations on the results of sales transactions. We analyze a sample of transactions that took place in Clayton, Cobb, DeKalb, Fayette, Forsyth, Fulton, Henry, and Rockdale counties from 2016 to 2018. Our analysis reveals that 27% of transactions display a drop in price, while 5% show an increase in price relative to the initial listing price. We apply Inverse Probability Regression Adjustment to estimate the average causal effect of a binary treatment (Change in Price) on sales outcomes, specifically sales price and time on the market. Our analysis indicates that promptly reducing the price of an overvalued property will lead to a higher selling price and shorter marketing time. |
| Keywords: | causal effect; Housing Markets; list price; time on the market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-136 |
| By: | Daria Denti (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Alessandra Faggian (Gran Sasso Science Institute) |
| Abstract: | Which are the effects of hosting refugees on hate events, the most extreme acts against minorities? While growing research considers the link between refugees and voting behaviors, little is known about the influence of refugee reception on radicalization of anti-immigrant attitudes. Exploiting a novel database on geotagged hate events in Italy and the geography of refugee hosting centers, this paper provides novel evidence on the effect of exposure to refugees on hate in Italian provinces. Using instrumental variable estimation, we show that provinces with bigger refugee hosting capacity experienced higher incidence of hate |
| Keywords: | immigration, refugee crisis, hate, Italy, proximity |
| JEL: | D74 F22 J15 P16 R23 |
| Date: | 2022–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp36 |
| By: | Farley Ishaak; Peng Liu; Egbert Hardeman; Hilde Remoy |
| Abstract: | In commercial real estate, it is common to trade entire portfolios of real estate instead of single objects one by one. A portfolio refers to a set of real estate objects and, unlike the residential real estate market, the commercial real estate market is characterized by these constructions. Trading portfolios can be efficient as it requires one agreement instead of many. It is, however, unknown whether trading portfolios is also financially beneficial. A better understanding of this market behaviour enables better monitoring of financial stability as the share of portfolio sales fluctuates over time. The aim of this study is to determine whether trading real estate portfolios involves a premium or discount in the transaction price. We used Dutch Land Registry Office data to identify portfolio transactions and examine the relationship between real estate portfolios and transaction prices with a hedonic regression. We find that real estate portfolios are most often traded with a price discount. Many portfolio sales in a certain period, therefore, indicate a “buyer’s” market and a price-lowering effect. |
| Keywords: | commercial real estate; Portfolio sales; Transaction price |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-206 |
| By: | Frédéric Docquier; Ariane Gordan; Michel Tenikue; Aleksa Uljarevic |
| Abstract: | We study the factors that shape attitudes toward immigration in Luxembourg, a wealthy country with a long history of immigration, where 74\% of the population has a foreign background. Overall, a large majority of respondents acknowledge that immigration enriches national identity and has a positive impact on the economy. These attitudes are shaped by characteristics such as age, education and foreign background. Pro-immigration attitudes are stronger among second-generation immigrants and even more pronounced among first-generation immigrants from Portugal, neighboring and non-European countries. In addition, we find that the total share of immigrants in the immediate neighborhood does not significantly influence attitudes towards the economic and identitarian implications of immigration. However, local exposure to immigration influences natives' perceptions of the optimal level of immigration. We provide suggestive evidence that the latter effect is largely driven by recent inflows of non-European immigrants, indicating that acceptance of diversity and multiculturalism might take time. |
| Keywords: | Immigration; Attitudes; Well-being; Neighborhood |
| JEL: | J15 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irs:cepswp:2024-08 |
| By: | Mirosaw Beej; Agnieszka Szczepaska |
| Abstract: | The main idea of this work is that the dynamics of the housing market is derived from the society's behaviour and the data obtained from Google Trends, allows monitoring the activity of the information society in terms of interest in housing. Obtaining and analysing data on the dynamics of internet searches for specific words related to the housing market can provide a basis for forecasting housing price dynamics. An increase in searches can suggest a future increase in prices and a decrease a stagnation or slump. The study used a vector autoregressive model (VAR) together with causality analysis in the Granger sense. The method developed allows more accurate forecasting of housing prices than traditional methods using only macroeconomic data. |
| Keywords: | Forcasting; Google Trends; housing; real estate |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-044 |
| By: | Marzia Morena; Tommaso Truppi; Alberto Celani |
| Abstract: | Real Estate is a strategic framework for value creation in the territory; it is the infrastructure which generates innovation, employment, real value, social value and economies of scale in welfare services.In this scenario, Politecnico di Milano – Dip. ABC wants to be a leader and a promoter of innovation and change in Real Estate and does so through the consolidation of a structured network of synergies among universities, students, professors, operators, institutions, market demand, private and social private sector, by creating the REAL ESTATE CENTER. |
| Keywords: | Attractiveness; Challenge; real estate; Territories |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-062 |
| By: | Riley K. Acton; Kalena Cortes; Camila Morales |
| Abstract: | We study how geographic access to public postsecondary institutions is associated with students’ college enrollment decisions across race and socioeconomic status. Leveraging rich administrative data, we first document substantial differences in students’ local college options, with White, Hispanic, and rural students having, on average, many fewer nearby options than their Black, Asian, suburban, and urban peers. We then show that students are sensitive to the distance they must travel to access public colleges and universities, but there are heterogeneous effects across students. In particular, we find that White and non-economically disadvantaged students respond to living far from public two-year colleges primarily by enrolling in four-year colleges, whereas Black, Hispanic, and economically disadvantaged students respond primarily by forgoing college enrollment altogether. Lastly, in a series of decomposition and simulation exercises to inform public policy efforts to increase college enrollment, especially among underrepresented minorities and low-income students, we find that differences in students’ sensitivity to distance, rather than differences in distance to the nearest college, primarily contribute to observed four-year college enrollment gaps across racial and ethnic groups. |
| JEL: | I21 I23 I24 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33085 |
| By: | Jonas Hurm; Johannes Raabe; Sebastian Stefani |
| Abstract: | The Swedish residential real estate market has undergone significant trans- formations over the years, with historical structural shifts driven by evolving regulations leading to market fluctuations. Analyzing these changes, we can categorize the market’s evolution into four distinct phases: pre-1993 marked by market liberalization, the 2008 global financial and economic crisis, and the 2016 increase in the main refinancing rate. Understanding these historical mile- stones is crucial for shaping our perspective on the current state of the market and forecasting its future trajectory.Key determinants influencing the Swedish real estate market are drawn from literature, encompassing factors such as banks’ refinancing rates, household in- come, welfare indicators, and price factors. These determinants have historically played crucial roles in shaping market trends and dynamics. The question arises: do these determinants persist over time, and can we derive predictive models based on this knowledge? Of particular interest is the proactive stance taken by the Swedish central bank, which raised the main refinancing rate earlier than its European and American counterparts. This divergence raises intrigu- ing questions about the unique characteristics of the Swedish market and how it responds to external economic factors.A hypothesis emerges: despite substantial changes, the identified determi- nants retain their long-term significance in influencing the Swedish real estate market. This hypothesis forms the basis for our exploration into the continu- ity of these determinants amidst evolving economic landscapes and regulatory frameworks. Understanding the historical context and determinants allows us to navigate the complexities of the market. It also provides a foundation for devel- oping robust forecasting models that can adapt to changing circumstances. As we delve into this exploration, we aim to unravel the enduring factors that shape the Swedish real estate landscape, contributing valuable insights to stakeholders navigating this dynamic and resilient market.Our research focuses on the Swedish residential housing market due to its distinct features, notably diverse transition processes. This market oers a com- pelling case study due to its unique blend of regulatory frameworks, monetary policies, and historical trends. By selecting this dataset, we aim to validate robust methodologies while gaining insights into a market that holds relevance on both national and international scales.Our data modeling approach involves a systematic application of Vector Auto-regressive (VAR) and Error Correction Model (ECM) frameworks, as out- lined in existing literature. Simultaneously, we constructed these models, align- ing with established methodologies, to gain insights into the complex relation- ships within the dataset. The VAR models capture dynamic interdependence’s among variables over time, providing a comprehensive understanding of the data’s behavior. In parallel, the ECM models address long-term equilibrium re- lationships and short-term dynamics, contributing to a nuanced understanding of underlying patterns.The integration of these models does not involve providing them with data in the traditional sense but rather focuses on their structural construction and alignment with recognized methodologies. This methodical approach allows us to uncover relationships, trends, and patterns within the dataset without ex- plicitly mentioning the providing process. By adopting this approach, we aim to derive robust insights and contribute to the advancement of knowledge within the domain, adhering to well-established methodologies in the literature.The results of our models underscore the enduring significance of determi- nants in the market. Through a comprehensive analysis of both the aggregate and individual phases within the models, we observed that the identified influ- encing factors continue to play a pivotal role in shaping market dynamics. These findings serve as the foundation for our aspiration to construct more precise and reliable forecast models.The holistic analysis enabled us to track the dynamics of determinants across various phases. Despite changes in the market over time, our models demon- strate that certain influencing factors remain consistently eective. This under- standing of long-term stability empowers us to develop informed forecast models based on reliable data and structured assumptions.Our primary focus now is to build precise forecast models based on the in- sights gained from our existing models. These models aim not only to consider current market conditions but also to integrate long-term stability and histori- cal development patterns. By employing rigorous methodologies and carefully incorporating the identified determinants, we aim to create models that are not only robust but also future-oriented. Our goal is to contribute valuable insights to strategic decision-making in an ever-evolving market environment through these forecast models.In an upcoming study, our aim is to develop a model for forecasting the development of net asset values of REIT’s and the market capitalization of shares of real estate companies in relation to the Swedish and later the European economic area. This requires modeling the performance of commercial and residential real estate and thus transferring the models to the commercial sector. |
| Keywords: | Prediction; Residential housing market; Sweden; VAR and ECM |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-187 |
| By: | Bowen Yan |
| Abstract: | Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance (ESG) has garnered significant attention in the economic realm, yet its exploration within the real estate sector, particularly in the London office market, remains under-researched. This paper delves into the influence of ESG factors on the London office market, scrutinizing the dynamics from both occupiers' and investors' perspectives. Employing a quantitative methodology, the study meticulously examines various facets: the inclination of tenants across diverse industries to lease green buildings, the interplay between a firm's ESG rating and its occupancy costs, the impact of ESG performance on attracting and retaining tenants, and the influence of ESG considerations on rental pricing strategies.Preliminary findings suggest a positive correlation between ESG ratings and occupancy costs, highlighting that offices with superior BREEAM ratings command significant rental premiums. Additionally, the research uncovers a heightened willingness among tenants in specific sectors to pay a premium for green features. By integrating stakeholder theory, the study offers a comprehensive view of the London office market's societal role, underscoring the imperative of creating value for all stakeholders. The insights from this research augment the understanding of ESG's importance in the London office market and hold substantial implications for real estate professionals, investors, and policymakers pursuing sustainable and socially responsible real estate practices. |
| Keywords: | ESG in Commercial Property; Green Building Certification; Sustainable Real Estate; Tenant Preferences |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-141 |
| By: | Piergiorgio Pilo (Gran Sasso Science Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between the presence of Multinational companies (MNCs) and urban life satisfaction. The aim is to understand the implications of MNCs by looking at the (i) degree of MNCs’ embeddedness in the local economic structure, (ii) the role of the MNCs’ heterogeneity in terms of sectors and activities, and (iii) and the cultural context of the location where MNCs invest. The empirical analysis employs a novel panel dataset of 101 European cities for 2012, 2015, and 2019 that integrates information from Eurostat's Perception Survey, Orbis-Bureau van Dijk, Eurobarometer, and World Input-Output Dataset. Results suggest that urban life satisfaction might be positively associated with MNC's degree of embeddedness in the local economic fabric. However, this depends on MNCs' sector and activity heterogeneity and the local cultural context. Areas with a closed cultural context seem to benefit less from the presence of embedded MNCs. |
| Keywords: | urban life satisfaction; globalization; multinational companies; embeddedness; input-output tables |
| JEL: | R10 I31 F60 F23 D57 Z13 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp41 |
| By: | Steinhoff, Brigitte |
| Abstract: | The social and affordable housing situation across Europe is characterised by a high degree of complexity, with a number of challenges emerging from a number of different factors. These include the rising costs of housing, the reduction in public funding, and the evolution of housing models. The term “affordable housing” is defined in different ways in various countries. The effectiveness of these definitions in meeting the needs of different population groups influences the perception of what constitutes affordable housing. The central research questions examine the relationship between national and sub-national definitions of affordable housing and their impact on housing policy outcomes. A mixed-methods approach is employed in four countries, combining desk research, policy analysis, key informant interviews, and stakeholder workshops. The countries under consideration are England, Italy, Poland and the Netherlands. This methodology permits a comprehensive examination of the policy framework and emerging trends within the affordable housing sector. The principal findings demonstrate that the affordable housing sector has become a distinct entity, targeted middle-income households and exhibiting considerable variation across countries. The research underscores the necessity for precise definitions of affordable housing and advocates for augmented government intervention and private sector involvement to enhance housing affordability. |
| Keywords: | affordable housing definition; affordable housing policies; social housing; England; Italy; Poland; The Netherlands |
| JEL: | M14 M38 O18 |
| Date: | 2024–09–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122429 |
| By: | Fabrice Kreuzbichler; Wolfgang Brunauer; Karin Wagner; Ronald Weberndorfer |
| Abstract: | The Austrian Central Bank (OeNB) has been publishing the Austrian residential property price index for many years now. Several years ago, there has been a change in the underlying methodology, from the “dummy method” to a “double imputation method”. While with the former approach, the regionalization of the index had been bound to the model regions (as it is derived from an evaluation of model parameters), the new methodology allows for arbitrary granularization. Now we explore methods for regionalization, and their impact on the bias-variance trade-off. Furthermore, we investigate the possible impact on the construction of early warning systems for the Austrian housing markets, which can in turn be used for systemic risk analyses. |
| Keywords: | Bias variance trade-off; Double Imputation; Price Index; regionalization |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-174 |
| By: | Seyedeh Fatemeh Mottaghi; Bertram Steininger |
| Abstract: | Based on real estate token data, we investigate the long-term relationships between real estate tokens, other real estate investment vehicles, and asset classes (i.e. equities, bonds). Employing not only the conventional cointegration method but also a sophisticated analysis employing COINtensity VECM, specifically tailored for examining complex and dynamic relationships within financial markets. Our findings show the quantitative dynamics of how this novel investment vehicle interfaces with established assets. This research strives to offer fresh perspectives into the transforming investment landscape of traditional assets coexisting with tokenized real estate assets, emphasizing the potential impact and role of real estate tokens in the evolving financial environment. |
| Keywords: | blockchain; Cointegration; Real Estate Tokens; VECM |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-096 |
| By: | Francesca Ghinami (Gran Sasso Science Institute) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the spatial heterogeneity that factors misallocation reveals in nine EU-member countries (Germany, France, Austria, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Czech Republic, Slovenia and Poland) during the years 2011-2020. Misallocation, as in the degree of efficiency with which inputs are allocated across firms, is increasingly regarded as one main source of aggregate productivity differences across countries. Nevertheless, its within-country spatial and regional dimensions are still largely overlooked, notwithstanding numerous reasons for allocative efficiency to vary across different administrative units. This article aims at filling this gap by firstly performing an exploratory analysis of allocative efficiencies at different levels of territorial aggregation (NUTS0-3). Secondly, it provides evidence for the across-regions disparities in allocative efficiency to account for large shares of aggregate misallocation for all the examined European countries. Finally, it investigates and finds support for the hypothesis that variations in local institutional quality may help explaining regional differences in allocative efficiencies |
| Keywords: | Total factor productivity, Misallocation, Regional disparities, Institutional Quality |
| JEL: | D24 L25 O47 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp43 |
| By: | Rowe, Francisco; Cabrera-Arnau, Carmen; González-Leonardo, Miguel; Nasuto, Andrea; Neville, Ruth |
| Abstract: | The COVID‐19 pandemic has impacted population movement around the world. Existing work has focused on countries of the Global North and restricted to the immediate effects of COVID-19 during 2020. Data have represented a major limitation to monitor changes in mobility patterns in Latin American countries. Drawing on aggregate anonymised mobile phone location data from Meta‐Facebook users, we aim to analyse the extent and persistence of changes in the levels (or intensity) and spatial patterns of internal population movement across the rural-urban continuum in Argentina, Chile and Mexico over a 26-month period from March 2020 to May 2022. We reveal an overall systematic decline in the level of short- and long-distance movement during the enactment of nonpharmaceutical interventions in 2020, with the largest reductions occurred in the most dense areas. We also show that these levels bounced back closer to pre-pandemic levels in 2022 following the relaxation of COVID-19 stringency measures. However, the intensity of these movements remained below pre-pandemic levels in many areas in 2022. Our findings lend some support to the idea of an urban exodus. They reveal continuing negative net balances of short-distance movements in the most dense areas of capital cities in Argentina and Mexico, reflecting a pattern of suburbanisation. Chile displays limited changes in the net balance of short-distance movements but reports a net loss of long-distance movements. These losses were, however, temporary, moving to neutral and positive balances in 2021 and 2022. This contrasts with a systematic pattern of net migration losses observed for the Metropolitan Region of Santiago over the last 20 years. |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecr:col045:80723 |
| By: | Martin Hoesli; Jackline Kraiouchkina; Richard Malle |
| Abstract: | Although public and private real estate have common economic drivers, the response of their returns to crises often differs in time and in magnitude. Whereas the listed real estate market tends to react quickly and sharply to a shock, the impacts are usually more muted and are lagged for the direct market. Against this background, limited research has investigated whether it is beneficial to combine listed real estate and direct investments in a mixed-asset portfolio and what the optimal allocation to real estate should be during crisis and non-crisis periods. Using U.K. and U.S. monthly data from 2006 to 2023, this research seeks to dig deeper into the benefits of combining public and private real estate in a mixed-asset portfolio in periods of market turmoil and in periods of stability. For each country, we also aim to explore the composition of the real estate bucket by considering the main property sectors. In this context, the paper should inform U.K. and U.S. investors about the breakdown between public and private real estate and about how the allocations vary across sectors. Specifically, we aim to answer the following research questions. Can the combination of public and private real estate generate superior risk-adjusted performance in a mixed-asset portfolio and do the benefits change with market conditions? How does the allocation to public and private real estate in a mixed-asset portfolio change in crisis versus non-crisis periods? What is the composition of the real estate bucket across sectors in crisis versus non-crisis periods? Are there differences in portfolio compositions for U.K. versus U.S. investors and how can these be explained? The period under investigation is of interest as it includes three significant crises: the global financial crisis and its aftermath leading to the European sovereign debt crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Ukraine conflict and subsequent periods of rising interest rates. |
| Keywords: | Crisis; Mixed-asset Portfolio; Private real estate; REITs |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-144 |
| By: | Ager, Philipp; Pedersen, Maja U.; Sharp, Paul; Tsoukli, Xanthi |
| Abstract: | This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the Great Fire’s effects on London’s economic geography. Our analysis reveals both continuity and change. There was a swift postfire recovery accompanied by some shift in economic activity towards the City of Westminster by 1690, with markets spreading outside the City, but financial services largely remaining inside. Analysis of London Hearth Tax records further illustrates a significant change in the wealth distribution, with wealthier households returning to fire-impacted areas, reshaping the city’s housing and social structure. |
| Keywords: | Great Fire of London, Economic geography, Location of economic activity JEL Classification: N23, N93 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:719 |
| By: | Clare Branigan |
| Abstract: | We explore the role of repressed ancestral suffering in driving institutional and broader societal responses to contemporary events. We demonstrate how a traumatic past becomes interwoven in the fabric of the social order, rendering state and parastatal organizations and their leaders powerless. This is manifest in the recent destructive Irish real estate bubble, and its associated economic and social consequences. The concept of intergenerational transmission of trauma is key to our analysis. We show how the Irish obsession with owning property and land is a psychic attempt to transcend the traumatic past to ‘inhabit’ an idealized pre-colonial land leading to emergent feelings of empowerment, euphoria and omnipotence. We also explain why the property bubble is being re-enacted so soon with no apparent learning. In addition, we highlight the potential for an enhanced understanding of this bubble with insights from novels, drama, and poetry. |
| Keywords: | real estate bubble; social unconscious; socio-economic crisis |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-030 |
| By: | Kola Akinsomi; Oguntona Olusegun; Andersson Magnus; Lundin Andrea |
| Abstract: | Several works have investigated sustainable communities globally. Turner-Skoff and Nicole Cavender (2019) examine the role of trees and their role for people and the planet. Their study shows that trees are essential for healthy communities and people, and they benefit and can help cities meet 15 of the 17 United Nations sustainable development goals. Schweizer-Ries (2008) examines the role of energy sustainability and the environmental and psychological aspects of the change in energy supply and demand. The paper examines energy-sustainable communities and examines a case study as an example of a community in Germany. Duxbury and Jeannotte (2011) discuss the role of culture and sustainable communities and its benefits to people who live in these communities.Therefore, this literature review attempts to fill the gap in the literature on sustainable communities, which are still quite unpopular globally, by examining the best practices in sustainable communities by examining past literature, exploring and having a clearer understanding of how it impacts real estate value. |
| Keywords: | Global climate; real estate; Sustainable communities; Valuation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-223 |
| By: | Laura Gabrielli; Aurora Greta Ruggeri; Massimiliano Scarpa |
| Abstract: | The energy performance of buildings has emerged as a critical factor in the real estate sector, intertwining environmental sustainability with market pricing. Therefore, this study aims to explore the relationship between a building's energy performance, as indicated by its energy class, and its market value. Leveraging a web-parsing automated procedure, the authors gathered approximately 200, 000 observations of properties currently listed for sale across Italy, capturing both asking prices and energy class specifications. Through the analysis of this extensive dataset, an Artificial Neural Network was trained to develop a predictive tool for estimating property market values based on various building characteristics, with particular emphasis on understanding the impact of energy class on market prices. In conclusion, this research opens the debate on the significance of energy class in evaluating the market value of buildings, especially within the context of the European Green Homes Directive. |
| Keywords: | Artificial Neural Network; Energy class; Market Value; Property Valuation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-198 |
| By: | Smith, Cory (University of Maryland (AREC)); Kulka, Amrita (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | We study the process of long-run urban growth using a unique setting of close elections that determined “county seats†(capitals) in the frontier United States. Employing a regression discontinuity design, we show that winning towns rapidly became the economic and population centers of their counties as new migrants coordinated on them as destinations. This coordination was largest in the early years of a county’s history, but limited in later decades. Using generalized random forests, we show that the economic changes were not zero sum locally: specific choices of county seat could increase long-run county population and income. As county administration was limited in this era, the public sector did not play a substantial role in this growth. Instead, these results illustrate how a political process can select spatial equilibria through a shock that is neither related to locational fundamentals nor confers direct productivity advantages on the location. |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:724 |
| By: | Javier Bianchi; Alisdair McKay; Neil Mehrotra |
| Abstract: | A persistent rise in rents has kept inflation above target in many advanced economies. Optimal policy in the standard New Keynesian (NK) model requires policy to stabilize housing inflation. We argue that the basic architecture of the NK model—that excess demand is always satisfied by producers—is inappropriate for the housing market, and we develop a matching framework that allows for demand rationing. Our findings indicate that the optimal response to a housing demand shock is to stabilize inflation in the non-housing sector while disregarding housing inflation. Our results hold exactly in a version of the model with costless search and quantitatively in a version with housing search costs calibrated to match US data on housing tenure, vacancy rates, and the size of the real estate sector. |
| Keywords: | Housing; Monetary policy; Stabilization policy; Inflation |
| JEL: | E24 E30 E52 |
| Date: | 2024–10–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedmwp:99022 |
| By: | Mateusz Tomal |
| Abstract: | Housing goods and housing market decisions are extremely complex. This complexity means that standard economic theory is inadequate to fully understand housing market mechanisms. Mainstream economics assumes that buyers and sellers are willing to transact at market price. However, friction between the demand and supply sides of the housing market is often evident, leading to an imbalance and, consequently, a reduction in the number of transactions. Behavioural economics offers an attempt to explain housing market disequilibrium. Behavioural economists emphasise that the deviation of sellers' and buyers' valuations from the market price is, among others, due to the so-called endowment effect. The endowment effect is defined as a behavioural bias resulting in higher valuations of goods we own relative to goods we do not own. To date, empirical studies have mostly looked at the endowment effect for simple goods such as mugs or pens. There is a lack of theoretical and empirical considerations of the endowment effects in different segments of the housing market. Consequently, the purpose of this paper is twofold: (ii) to develop a theoretical model explaining the magnitude of endowment effects in the sales and rental housing markets, with a distinction between primary and secondary markets; (ii) to assess the presence of endowment effects in Poland’s sales and rental housing markets. The empirical research indicated that the endowment effect significantly shapes the Polish residential market. On the sales housing market it amounts on average to 11.95%, i.e. PLN 72, 086, while in the rental market, it amounts on average to 7.69%, that is, PLN 212. This difference in the strength of the endowment effect between the sales and rental markets proved to be statistically significant in favour of the former. The endowment effect is also significantly smaller, on average, in primary markets, where sellers treat the dwellings they sell as exchange goods. In this case, its magnitude averaged 10.46% (PLN 63, 199) in the sales market and 6.20% (PLN 170) in the rental market. When the supply side treated the object of the transaction as a consumer good, the endowment effect averaged 13.45% (PLN 80, 973) in the sales market and 9.17% (PLN 254) in the rental market. Finally, the study did not confirm the hypothesis that the endowment effect varies depending on the housing market cycle phase. |
| Keywords: | Behavioural Economics; endowment effect; market disequilibrium; Polish housing market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-181 |
| By: | Martin Schnauss; Laura Archer-Svoboda |
| Abstract: | The imperative for energy efficiency in real estate investments has been amplified by growing environmental awareness and economic factors. The escalation of energy costs has led to a critical re-evaluation of energy efficiency and the need for property upgrades, particularly in Switzerland. Here, a significant portion of residential real estate is managed by real estate funds, pension funds, and other financial institutions, which are under increasing pressure from investors and regulators to improve the environmental sustainability of their portfolios. In addition, newly enacted regulations imposing rent caps on properties that have not undergone energy-efficient renovations pose a risk to future rental income streams. This context underscores the critical need for improved methods of measurement and accountability. Our presentation addresses the formulation of modern, transparent and data-centric strategies for valuing Swiss real estate assets, with a focus on energy efficiency, combating obsolescence and projecting future market values. Our research highlights ways to assess and manage changing environmental and regulatory requirements. |
| Keywords: | Energy Efficiency; Rating; sustainability |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-201 |
| By: | Julius Range; Benedikt Gloria; Albert Erasmus Grafe |
| Abstract: | The rapid increasing demand for freight transport has precipitated a critical need for expanded infrastructure, particularly in Germany, where a significant crisis in Heavy Goods Vehicle (HGV) parking facilities is emerging. Our study aims to determine the optimum supply of HGV parking lots required to mitigate this problem. Utilizing state-of-the-art object detection techniques in satellite imagery, we conduct a comprehensive analysis to assess the current availability of HGV parking spaces. Our machine learning-based approach enables an accurate and large-scale evaluation, revealing a considerable undersupply of HGV parking lots across Germany. These findings underscore the severity of the infrastructure deficit in the context of increasing freight transport demands. In a next step, we conduct a location analysis to determine regions, which are impacted acutely. Our results therefore deliver valuable insights to specialized real-estate developers seeking to cater to the demand and profit from this deficit. Based on the results, we develop industry and policy recommendations aimed at addressing this shortfall. |
| Keywords: | Machine Learning; satellite image analysis; specialized real estate; Transportation |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-164 |
| By: | Acton, Riley (Miami University); Cortes, Kalena E. (Texas A&M University); Miller, Lois (University of South Carolina); Morales, Camila (University of Texas at Dallas) |
| Abstract: | Leveraging rich data on the universe of Texas high school graduates, we estimate how the relationship between geographic access to public two- and four-year postsecondary institutions and postsecondary outcomes varies across race-ethnicity and socioeconomic status. We find that students are sensitive to the distance they must travel to access public colleges and universities, but there are heterogeneous effects across students – particularly with regard to distance to public two-year colleges (i.e., community colleges). White, Asian, and higher-income students who live in a community college desert (i.e., at least 30 minutes driving time from the nearest public two-year college) substitute towards four-year colleges and are more likely to complete bachelor's degrees. Meanwhile, Black, Hispanic, and lower-income students respond to living in a community college desert by forgoing college enrollment altogether, reducing the likelihood that they earn associate's and reducing the likelihood that they ultimately transfer to four-year colleges and earn bachelor's degrees. These relationships persist up to eight years following high school graduation, resulting in substantial long-term gaps in overall degree attainment by race-ethnicity and income in areas with limited postsecondary access. |
| Keywords: | college accessibility, college proximity, college choices, college enrollment, college attainment, associate's degree, bachelor's degree, college enrollment patterns, two-year colleges, four-year colleges, public postsecondary institutions |
| JEL: | I21 I23 I24 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17338 |
| By: | Daria Denti (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Marco Di Cataldo (Ca' Foscari University of Venice) |
| Abstract: | Being strongly related to certainty of punishment, efficient justice is expected to matter more than the severity of punishment in deterring crimes. However, the evidence supporting this perspective is scarce. This paper estimates the effect of a reform of the criminal justice system that took place in Italy in 2012, evaluating its impact on justice efficiency and crime deterrence. Event study and difference-in-difference estimates reveal that the reform significantly improved the efficiency of criminal courts and deterred property crimes and organised crimes, while violent crimes were not affected. These results support the idea that the deterrence effect of justice efficiency applies particularly to “rational†crimes, while criminals acting under impulsive and less-rational circumstances do not internalise information about justice in their decision-making |
| Keywords: | crime, justice, justice efficiency, deterrence, Italy. |
| JEL: | K14 K42 P43 Z18 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp47 |
| By: | Ewelina Nawrocka; Micha Eckstein |
| Abstract: | In Polish law, which regulates the valuation of real estate, four main approaches are distinguished: comparative, income, cost, and mixed. Each approach encompasses specific valuation methods. This presentation focuses on the comparative approach. Within this approach, three methods are recognized: pairwise comparison, median price adjustment, and market statistical analysis. Recent amendments in legal provisions, among other changes, pertain to the method of adjusting the average price. The objective of this study is to develop a new methodology to support Polish property appraisers in real estate valuation. The research outcome comprises mathematical formulas recommended for practical application in adjusting the average price method, while considering the location of the average price within the range between the minimum and maximum prices of similar real estate. |
| Keywords: | average price; Location; Methods |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-102 |
| By: | Giulia Iannone (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Andrea Ascani (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Alessandra Faggian (Gran Sasso Science Institute); Alexandra Tsvetkova (OECD Trento Centre for Local Development) |
| Abstract: | There is an increasing need for today’s economies to be both productive and resilient, but the interplay between these two fundamental factors for economic growth has been neglected in the literature. This paper aims at filling this gap by adopting an evolutionary framework for the joint study of productivity and resilience and proposes a regional taxonomy based on characteristics of the industrial structure. Data on European regions at the NUTS2 level are used first to classify regions as productive and/or resilient and then to analyze how certain regional features, in particular related and unrelated variety, relate to a combined measure of productivity and resilience. Results show that the spatial distribution of productive and resilient regions follows a core– periphery pattern and that related and unrelated variety have significant but heterogeneous effects on regions’ economic performance. |
| Keywords: | productivity, regional resilience, industrial structure, relatedness |
| JEL: | B52 O4 R1 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp44 |
| By: | Martin Schnauss; Patrick Spieler |
| Abstract: | Real estate valuation involves a variety of methodologies, but the recursive dynamics inherent in real estate development are often overlooked. These dynamics involve feedback effects that significantly affect the life cycle of a property. This paper presents the application of system dynamics methodology to real estate valuation, highlighting its utility in setting priorities for sustainable real estate development. Moreover, this approach facilitates the projection of a property’s evolution in terms of its environmental, social and governance (ESG) compliance, taking into account the evolving nature of a property’s rating. Such ratings are critical to investors, including funds, who need to make informed decisions about the long-term development of properties and their fit within investment portfolios. Therefore, the methodology discussed here goes beyond traditional Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methods by providing a more holistic and dynamic framework for understanding and predicting the multiple impacts on real estate valuations. |
| Keywords: | Rating; Simulation; sustainability; System Dynamics |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-200 |
| By: | Banerjee, Ritwik; Blunch, Niels-Hugo; Cassese, Daniele; Gupta, Nabanita Datta; Pin, Paolo |
| Abstract: | An enduring question in education is whether team-based peer learning methods help improve learning outcomes among students. We randomly assign around 10, 000 middle school students in Karnataka, India, to alternative peer learning treatments in Math and English that vary the intensity of collaboration. Teamwork with co-coaching outperforms simple teamwork and incentive treatments by increasing the test scores by about 0.25 standard deviation, but only in Math. This is both statistically and economically significant for students at the bottom of the ability distribution. We develop theoretical conditions under which teamwork with co-coaching outperforms simple teamwork as a peer-learning method. |
| Keywords: | cooperative learning methods, jigsaw, peer effects |
| JEL: | I20 I24 C93 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1506 |
| By: | Effrosyni Adamopoulou; Jeremy Greenwood; Nezih Guner; Karen Kopecky |
| Abstract: | The role of friends in the US opioid epidemic is examined. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health (Add Health), adults aged 25-34 and their high school best friends are focused on. An instrumental variable technique is employed to estimate peer effects in opioid misuse. Severe injuries in the previous year are used as an instrument for opioid misuse in order to estimate the causal impact of a person’s best friends’ opioid misuse on their own misuse. The estimated peer effects are significant: Having a best friend with a reported serious injury in the previous year increases the probability of own opioid misuse by around 7 percentage points in a population where 17 percent ever misuses opioids. The effect is concentrated among non-college graduates and peers with strong ties who are central in their friendship networks. Peer opioid misuse leads to deteriorating health, opioid addiction, and eventually death. |
| Keywords: | opioid, peer-group effects, friends, instrumental variables, Add Health, severe injuries. |
| JEL: | C26 D10 I12 J11 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_493v2 |
| By: | Jukka Puhto; Osku Torro |
| Abstract: | The aim of the study was to identify the drivers and challenges of digitalisation in the real estate sector among different actors. The research methodology has been based on interviews. The organisations interviewed consisted of property owner organisations from both the residential and commercial sectors, as well as property management companies. The key drivers of digitalisation were identified as growing customer demands, increasing competition and efficiency targets. Key challenges were an old property stock, where data is challenging to access, siloed systems and lack of open interfaces, low maturity of data management. |
| Keywords: | DigitalisationReal Estate Business |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-139 |
| By: | Bernardi, Martino (Fondazione Giovanni Agnelli); Bertoni, Marco (University of Padova); Brunello, Giorgio (University of Padova); Crocè, Clementina (University of Padova); Rocco, Lorenzo (University of Padova) |
| Abstract: | In 2015, school-work alternation programmes (alternanza scuola lavoro) became compulsory in all Italian high schools, with the purpose of enabling students to combine theoretical learning at school with work-based learning. A distinctive feature of this reform was that the intensity of school-work-alternation programs varied across school tracks, higher for technical schools and lower for academic schools. Using a difference–in–differences approach, we show that female students in more intensively treated tracks experienced a decline in the probability of employment during the year following high school graduation, relative to females in less intensively treated tracks. The decline was accompanied by an increase in full-time higher education. These results could be driven by the relatively unattractive conditions offered by the Italian labour market to high school graduates without college education. |
| Keywords: | work-based learning, employment, college enrolment, Italy |
| JEL: | J60 J68 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17352 |
| By: | Murat Tinic; Zeynep Ö. nder |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether the bank-affiliated brokerage houses actively use the private information they possess about their affiliated publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs) around earnings announcements in Borsa Istanbul (BIST) between 2005 and 2015. The legal framework surrounding Turkish Real Estate Investment Trusts makes it particularly interesting to investigate the secondary market implications of the information asymmetry between majority and minority shareholders within BIST. We propose bank affiliation as a potential mechanism for disseminating private information about the official quarterly earnings announcements for the first time in the literature by assigning exogenous classifications across different investor types at high frequency. Our results indicate a substantial informed trading activity passing through bank-affiliated brokerage houses around earnings announcements, especially with the increase in earnings (when the announcement carries good news). Through intraday panel regressions, we also document that private information attributed to trades submitted through affiliated brokerage houses significantly enhances market quality by increasing future liquidity and reducing future volatility levels, whereas private information percolated through unaffiliated brokerage houses demand liquidity and increases volatility, reducing overall market quality. |
| Keywords: | emerging economies; Housing Supply; Price Elasticity; Undevelopable Land |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-210 |
| By: | Sofoklis Goulas; Bhagya N. Gunawardena; Rigissa Megalokonomou; Yves Zenou |
| Abstract: | Using Greek administrative data, we examine the impact of being randomly assigned to a classroom with a same-gender top-performing student on both short- and long-term educational outcomes. These top performers are tasked with keeping classroom attendance records, which positions them as role models. Both male and female students are influenced by the performance of a same-gender top performer and experience both spillover and conformist effects. However, only female students show significant positive effects from the presence of a same-gender role model. Specifically, female students improved their science test scores by 4 percent of a standard deviation, were 2.5 percentage points more likely to choose a STEM track, and were more likely to apply for and enroll in a STEM university degree 3 years later. These effects were most pronounced in lower-income neighborhoods. Our findings suggest that same-gender peer role models could reduce the underrepresentation of qualified females in STEM fields by approximately 3 percent. We further validate our findings through a lab-in-the-field experiment, in which students rated the perceived influence of randomized hypothetical top-performer profiles. The results suggest that the influence of same-gender top performers is primarily driven by exposure-related factors (increased perception of distinction feasibility and self-confidence) rather than direct interactions. |
| Keywords: | gender gap, lab-in-the-field experiment, natural experiment, random peer group formation, role models, self-confidence, STEM |
| JEL: | J24 J16 I24 I26 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11330 |
| By: | Banerjee, Ritwik (Indian Institute of Management Bangalore); Blunch, Niels-Hugo (Washington and Lee University); Cassese, Daniele (University of Cambridge); Datta Gupta, Nabanita (Aarhus University); Pin, Paolo (University of Siena) |
| Abstract: | An enduring question in education is whether team-based peer learning methods help improve learning outcomes among students. We randomly assign around 10, 000 middle school students in Karnataka, India, to alternative peer learning treatments in Math and English that vary the intensity of collaboration. Teamwork with co-coaching outperforms simple teamwork and incentive treatments by increasing the test scores by about 0.25 standard deviation, but only in Math. This is both statistically and economically significant for students at the bottom of the ability distribution. We develop theoretical conditions under which teamwork with co-coaching outperforms simple teamwork as a peer-learning method. |
| Keywords: | cooperative learning methods, jigsaw, peer effects |
| JEL: | I20 I24 C93 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17362 |
| By: | Mickael Melki; Hillel Rapoport; Enrico Spolaore; Romain Wacziarg |
| Abstract: | We argue that migrants played a significant role in the diffusion of the demographic transition from France to the rest of Europe in the late 19th century. Employing novel data on French immigration from other European regions from 1850 to 1930, we find that higher immigration to France translated into lower fertility in the region of origin after a few decades - both in cross-region regressions for various periods, and in a panel setting with region fixed effects. These results are robust to the inclusion of a variety of controls, and across multiple specifications. We also find that immigrants who themselves became French citizens achieved lower fertility, particularly those who moved to French regions with the lowest fertility levels. We interpret these findings in terms of cultural remittances, consistently with insights from a theoretical framework where migrants act as vectors of cultural diffusion, spreading new information, social norms and preferences pertaining to modern fertility to their regions of origin. |
| Keywords: | migration, fertility control, social influence, cultural change, diffusion |
| JEL: | J13 F22 N13 O40 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11357 |
| By: | Davide Lunardon (Gran Sasso Science Institute) |
| Abstract: | The paper provides a comprehensive analysis on the multiple linkages that connect urbanization economies with job quality. The empirical analysis uses EWCS 2015 individual-level data for 35 European countries. Three spatial mechanisms -urban rat race, better job matching, and job satisfaction externalitiesare explored on six job quality indicators. Overall, rural workers report higher job quality as compared to urban. More specifically, the analysis corroborates the extant/emerging evidence on the detrimental mechanisms associated to the urban rat race which engenders competition and rivalry behaviours. Urban workers are partially compensated from higher job matching possibilities but, apart for selfemployees, an urban career premium never emerges. A set of robustness checks confirm the main results, yet highlighting heterogeneities associated to different occupational groups and type of urbanization. |
| Keywords: | Job quality, Urban-Rural divide, Urban Rat Race, EWCS |
| JEL: | J22 J28 J32 J81 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ahy:wpaper:wp49 |
| By: | Robert Fairlie; Daniel Oliver; Glenn Millhauser; Randa Roland; Robert W. Fairlie |
| Abstract: | An extensive literature in the social sciences analyzes peer effects among students, but estimation is complicated by several major problems some of which cannot be solved even with random assignment. We design a field experiment and propose a new estimation technique to address these estimation problems including the mechanical problems associated with repeated observations within peer groups noted by Angrist (2014). The field experiment randomly assigns students to one-to-one partnerships in an important gateway STEM course at a large public university. We find no evidence of peer effects from estimates of exogenous peer effect models. We push further and estimate outcome-on-outcome models which sometimes reveal peer effects when exogenous models do not provide good proxies for ability. We find some limited evidence of small, positive outcome-on-outcome peer effects (which would have been missed without our new estimation technique). Standard estimation methods fail to detect peer effects and even return negative estimates in our Monte Carlo simulations because of the downward bias due to mechanical problems. Simulations reveal additional advantages of our technique especially when peer group sizes are fixed. Estimates of non-linear effects, heterogeneous effects, and different measures of peer ability and outcomes reveal mostly null effects but we find some evidence that low-ability peers negatively affect low-ability and medium-ability students. The findings in this setting of long-term, intensive interactions with classroom random assignment and “throwing everything at it” provide evidence of, at most, small positive peer effects contrasting with the common finding of large peer effects in previous studies in education. |
| Keywords: | peer effects, higher education, STEM, field experiment |
| JEL: | I21 I23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11404 |
| By: | Alain Coen; Philippe Guardiola |
| Abstract: | The aim of this article is to analyze the impact of the monetary policies of the UK, US and EU on the UK’s real estate market, during the last two decades, since 2000. Using unsmoothed returns, we examine the effect of variations of money supply and government bond yields on office, retail and industrial total returns, using REITs as an investment channel. More precisely, with a dynamic VAR modeling, we shed new light on the comovements of REITs prices, stock prices and real estate prices. Our results report that UK money supply growth and interest rate decrease have a strong positive impact on office and retail prices across the country, while limited for industrial. The ECB’s decisions have the opposite effect as they seem to create a capital flight toward the EU. |
| Keywords: | Carry trade; Monetary policies; Real estate prices; REIT |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-111 |
| By: | Samnguinetti, Angela |
| Abstract: | The concept of Universal Basic Mobility (UBM) calls upon policymakers to ensure all people have access to transportation services for basic needs like work, food, and healthcare. Pilot programs in California and beyond are testing UBM as a means to address the problem of transport poverty, often defined as a household spending more than 10% of their income on transportation (the average American household spends 16%). Transport poverty also encompasses issues of mobility access (e.g., how far a person can travel and what types of destinations they can reach in a defined amount of time) and transportation experience (e.g., safety). Those particularly vulnerable to transport poverty include low-income households, communities of color, undocumented immigrants, persons with disabilities, and youth who are neither working nor in school. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt07c3c678 |
| By: | David Frayman; Christian Krekel; Richard Layard; Sara MacLennan; Isaac Parkes |
| Abstract: | Choosing policies that most improve wellbeing would radically change government priorities. David Frayman, Christian Krekel, Richard Layard, Sara MacLennan and Isaac Parkes explain the science behind the new approach. |
| Keywords: | wellbeing, public spending, community wellbeing, mental health, schools, apprenticeships, police, crime, research and development, roads, rail, pension, house building, planning |
| Date: | 2024–10–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:687 |
| By: | Fetzer, Thiemo (University of Warwick and Bonn & CEPR); Guin, Benjamin (Bank of England); Netto, Felipe (Bank of England); Saidi, Farzad (University of Bonn & CEPR) |
| Abstract: | This paper uncovers if and how insurance companies react to shocks to collateral in their portfolio of securitized assets. We address this question in the context of commercial real estate cash flow shocks, which are informationally opaque to holders of commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). Using detailed micro data, we show that cash flow shocks during the COVID-19 pandemic predict CRE mortgage delinquency, especially those stemming from lease expiration of offices, reflecting lower demand for these properties. Insurers react to such cash flow shocks by selling more exposed CMBS—mirrored by a surge in small banks holding CMBS—and the composition of their CMBS portfolio affects their trading behavior in other assets. Our results indicate that institutional investors actively monitor underlying asset risk, and even gain an informational advantage over some banks. |
| Keywords: | Insurance Sector, Risk Management, Mortgage Default, Commercial Real Estate, CMBS, Work-from-home JEL Classification: G20, G21, G22, G23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:721 |
| By: | Michal Hebdzynski |
| Abstract: | In micro-level data concerning the housing market, the apartment quality may be signaled via textual statements or the attached descriptions/photos. It may be done using hard information related to the easier-to-measure structural characteristics or soft information related to the apartment condition and design - soft quality. This paper checks whether the choice of the approach to handling the issue of soft quality of apartments influences the properties of hedonic models and the course of hedonic rent indices. The study shows that hedonic models that account for soft quality have better statistical properties than those without soft-quality-related variables. Among them, the models that include the information on quality extracted from descriptions of apartments prove to be the best. Still, considerable differences in the indicated course of hedonic rent indices have not been detected. However, the paper concludes that utilizing information on apartments’ soft quality may be crucial to understanding the market adjustment process to economic shocks. It has been proven that the price reaction of the rental market in Pozna (Poland) to the COVID-19 pandemic and the shock related with the Russian aggression on Ukraine has been diversified in the quality-related market segments. |
| Keywords: | Hedonic methods; Price Index; quality signaling; Rental market |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-214 |
| By: | Stephen Lee |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between the return dispersion of two types of real estate funds (Balanced and Specialist) and the return dispersion of the UK commercial real estate market. Using quarterly data over the period from 2002:Q1 to 2022:Q4, we draw a number of conclusions. First, we find that market dispersion is time varying and dominated by non-market risk. Second, Specialist funds show greater fund dispersion than Balanced funds. Third, when we regress Balanced fund dispersion against market dispersion and the two types of risk, we find that Balanced fund dispersion is significant related to beta risk. In contrast, Specialist display a significant relationship with non-market risk. In other words, Balanced funds offer “beta” performance while Specialist funds offer “alpha” performance. Lastly, the empirical results show that the relationship between market dispersion and real estate fund dispersion is not straight forward, it depends on the type of fund and type of dispersion. |
| Keywords: | Beta risk; Dispersion; Non-market risk; Real Esate Funds |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-022 |
| By: | Scott Fulford (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau); Fabio Schiantarelli (Boston College; IZA) |
| Abstract: | We construct the first estimates of U.S. county nominal and real GDP by broadly defined industrial sectors from 1870 to 2018. Counties tended to converge from 1870 until 1970, but subsequently grew apart. Falling inequality between states explains most of the fall in county inequality from 1870 to 1970. After 1970, increasing inequality within states explains most of the overall inequality increase. Before 1970, more productive states were more equal, after 1970 more productive states were more unequal. U.S. geographic inequality is no longer primarily about differences between regions or states, but instead about differences within them. We show how the changing industrial composition affects inequality. The path to riches has changed from manufacturing to tradable services. From 1870 to 1950, manufacturing became increasingly concentrated in the richest counties. The manufacturing share is now the highest in middle income counties, while the richest counties increasingly produce tradable services. Manufacturing’s contribution to inequality is the largest before 1960 and its decline is the main explanation for the fall in inequality from 1930 to 1970, while the growth of tradable services and their concentration in top metropolitan areas contribute to the nominal inequality increase after 1970. Agriculture used to be the primary activity of the poorest counties. Now, the poorer the county, the larger the share in government, education, and health. Government services decrease county inequality. We show that population growth and education used to be strongly pro-convergence, but after 1970 became neutral or anti-convergence. At the same time, agglomeration effects in manufacturing and tradable services appear to have increased. |
| Keywords: | Regional Growth; Inequality; Productivity; Industrial Composition; County growth; United States; GDP |
| JEL: | R12 O4 N9 |
| Date: | 2024–10–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:1081 |
| By: | Fairlie, Robert W. (University of California, Los Angeles); Oliver, Daniel (Washington State Student Achievement Council); Millhauser, Glenn (University of California, Santa Cruz); Roland, Randa (University of California, Santa Cruz) |
| Abstract: | An extensive literature in the social sciences analyzes peer effects among students, but estimation is complicated by several major problems some of which cannot be solved even with random assignment. We design a field experiment and propose a new estimation technique to address these estimation problems including the mechanical problems associated with repeated observations within peer groups noted by Angrist (2014). The field experiment randomly assigns students to one-to-one partnerships in an important gateway STEM course at a large public university. We find no evidence of peer effects from estimates of exogenous peer effect models. We push further and estimate outcome-on-outcome models which sometimes reveal peer effects when exogenous models do not provide good proxies for ability. We find some limited evidence of small, positive outcome-on-outcome peer effects (which would have been missed without our new estimation technique). Standard estimation methods fail to detect peer effects and even return negative estimates in our Monte Carlo simulations because of the downward bias due to mechanical problems. Simulations reveal additional advantages of our technique especially when peer group sizes are fixed. Estimates of non-linear effects, heterogeneous effects, and different measures of peer ability and outcomes reveal mostly null effects but we find some evidence that low-ability peers negatively affect low-ability and medium-ability students. The findings in this setting of long-term, intensive interactions with classroom random assignment and "throwing everything at it" provide evidence of, at most, small positive peer effects contrasting with the common finding of large peer effects in previous studies in education. |
| Keywords: | peer effects, higher education, STEM, field experiment |
| JEL: | I21 I23 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17358 |
| By: | Alessandra Drigo (University of Milan and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei) |
| Abstract: | This study addresses the presence of an environmental justice issue along the dimensions of income and ethnicity in the urban context of Bologna, Italy. Among other Italian cities, Bologna has historically had a left-leaning political tendency and has made considerable substantial efforts to address social issues extensively. This makes it a useful cross-section dataset links gridded PM2.5 concentration data at 0.01°x0.01° resolution with census demographic characteristics and income per capita information for the year 2011. This study presents two main findings. i) It confirms the existence of an environmental justice gap, which affects vulnerable segments of the population along both income and ethnicity dimensions. A 1% increase in income per capita is associated with a 0.09% decrease in PM2.5 levels (a rise of 1 standard deviation of income per capita in the census corresponds to a reduction of -0.53 mg/m³ in PM2.5); whereas a 1% increase in the share of non-white individuals living in the census tract leads to a 0.13% increase in PM2.5 levels (+3.92 mg/m³ increase associated with a rise of 1 standard deviation in the proportion of non-whites in the census). ii) There is currently no evidence to suggest that exposure disparities for nonwhite individuals are changing depending on income level, whether it is lower or higher. Residence in lower/higher income areas of the city does not significantly exacerbate/alleviate these disparities for non-white communities. Overall, these results highlight the widespread occurrence of environmental injustice across various geographical and political settings, including those that have historically prioritized social concerns. |
| Keywords: | Environmental inequality, Environmental justice, Air pollution, Racial disparities, Socioeconomic status |
| JEL: | Q53 Q56 I14 C21 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2024.24 |
| By: | Vikram Maheshri (University of Houston); Kenneth Whaley (University of South Florida) |
| Abstract: | Neighborhood boundaries are often determined by physical topography, transportation networks, or the administration of public goods (e.g., school attendance zones). We present a simple model of boundaries that predicts discontinuities in household demographics, the supply of amenities, and home prices at physical and administrative boundaries. We take these predictions to the data and find abundant evidence of discontinuities in a wide range of observable dimensions – the universe of variables available in the 2020 Census at the Block group level – and six different types of boundaries. We draw two important conclusions from these findings: (1) researchers should implement boundary discontinuity designs with caution because the key identification assumption may not hold except in narrow applications, and (2) even narrowly targeted place-based policies may have much broader impacts if they involve a new administrative boundary. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usf:wpaper:2024-04 |
| By: | Michelle Norris (Geary Institute for Public Policy, University College Dublin, Ireland) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the ways in which land supply and price, the policies and mechanisms used to manage them and changes to these arrangements over time have influenced the long-term trajectories of social housing systems in three Western European countries. The argument offered here is that land policy has exerted a major, and underappreciated, influence on the resilience and fragility of social housing systems – meaning their tendency to expand (in resilient cases) or contract (which indicates fragility) over the long run in terms of the proportion of all households accommodated. Land policy can provide a valuable ‘invisible’ subsidy for social housing which plays a particularly important role in enabling the sector to withstand adverse changes in the wider political economy such as economic or fiscal crisis and growing ideological and political opposition. These ideas are explored in comparative and historical perspective by examining changes in land policy and social housing supply in Austria, England, and the Netherlands since the early twentieth century. The analysis focuses on the extent to which arrangements for providing land for social housing and land policy more broadly focus on replacing, steering, subsidising, or enabling land markets. |
| Keywords: | Land Policy, Social Hoousing Systems |
| Date: | 2024–10–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucd:wpaper:202407 |
| By: | Menaka Hampole; Francesca Truffa; Ashley Wong |
| Abstract: | Women continue to be underrepresented in corporate leadership positions. This paper studies the role of social connections in women's career advancement. We investigate whether access to a larger share of female peers in business school affects the gender gap in senior managerial positions. Merging administrative data from a top-10 U.S. business school with public LinkedIn profiles, we first document that female MBAs are 24% less likely than male MBAs to enter senior management within 15 years of graduation. Next, we use the exogenous assignment of students into sections to show that a larger proportion of female MBA section peers increases the likelihood of entering senior management for women but not for men. This effect is driven by female-friendly firms, such as those with more generous maternity leave policies and greater work schedule flexibility. A larger proportion of female MBA peers induces women to transition to these firms where they attain senior management roles. A survey of female MBA alumnae reveals three key mechanisms: (i) information sharing, especially related to gender-specific advice, (ii) higher ambitions and self-confidence, and (iii) increasing support from male MBA peers. These findings highlight the role of social connections in reducing the gender gap in senior management positions. |
| Keywords: | gender, peer effects, corporate leadership |
| JEL: | I21 J16 J24 J44 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11295 |
| By: | Farley Ishaak; Peng Liu; Egbert Hardeman; Hilde Remoy |
| Abstract: | Recent literature has shown how dynamic factor models (DFM) can be used successfully to predict real estate price returns. In this paper, we take it a step further. In a two-step approach we estimate (1) a dynamic factor model over multiple markets to extract a few common trends, and (2) estimate a per-market Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model including the dynamic factors, in a LASSO framework. In total we estimate 7 different variants (for example by also utilizing macroeconomic explanatory variables) of this model for rents and prices for a selection of Polish cities. Compared to a vanilla ARDL model, our LASSO-DFM augmented ARDL, reduces the prediction error by more than 60% on average. What is more, the prediction errors are relatively "stable." With this we mean that the size of the error is comparable over time and over markets, without any large outliers. This holds true even for forecasts over very long horizons. |
| Keywords: | Autoregressive Distributed Lag; LASSO; Poland |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-207 |
| By: | Aleksandra Koszarek-Cyra |
| Abstract: | Green space management is part of taking care of the environment at the municipal level . Green space management can be viewed as an investment in ecosystem services, defined as society's benefits from ecosystems. The services offered by green spaces include providing raw materials (a provisioning service), influencing the microclimate (a regulating service), increasing biodiversity (a supporting service) or influencing human health and mental condition (a cultural and social service) [Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, MEA, 2005]. Caring for the state of greenery is therefore not only a matter of nature conservation but concerns a broader dimension. The purpose of the study is to carry out a diagnosis of the advancement of the process of greenery management in municipalities as an element of spatial management. Data will be obtained from polish publicly available sources, such as the local data bank (BDL). |
| Keywords: | greenery management; spatial management; urban greenery |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-016 |
| By: | Xinyan Liu; Yu Bai; Yanjun Li; Yajie Sun |
| Abstract: | Child trafficking is a deep-seated social issue with enduring consequences that remain concealed or less obvious to the general public. We argue that the intensity of child trafficking increases as an indirect and unintended consequence of improved urban infrastructure, such as the construction of highways that facilitate the expedient transfer of victims between cities. To establish a causal relationship, we analyze data on child abduction and combine it with geo-referenced information on China’s highway routes. Using a staggered difference-in-differences approach and a city-to-city analysis, we find that the construction of highways in a city significantly leads to an increase in abducted children. Changes in both demand and supply factors following the highway construction could explain the increase in child trafficking. |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:tupdaa:56 |
| By: | Pascal Michaillat |
| Abstract: | Immigration is often blamed for increasing unemployment among local workers. However, standard models, such as the neoclassical model and the Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides matching model, inherently assume that immigrants are absorbed into the labor market without affecting local unemployment. This paper presents a more general model of migration that allows for the possibility that not only the wages but also the unemployment rate of local workers may be affected by the arrival of newcomers. This extension is essential to capture the full range of potential impacts of labor migration on labor markets. The model blends a matching framework with job rationing. In it, the arrival of new workers can raise the unemployment rate among local workers, particularly in a depressed labor market where job opportunities are limited. On the positive side, in-migration helps firms fill vacancies more easily, boosting their profits. The overall impact of in-migration on local welfare varies with labor market conditions: in-migration reduces welfare when the labor market is inefficiently slack, but it enhances welfare when the labor market is inefficiently tight. |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J2 J6 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33047 |
| By: | Benjamin Schneider; Jane Whittle |
| Abstract: | The location of work has received renewed scholarly and public interest since the increase in working from home during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this survey we explore how historians have discussed the location and circumstances of work as well as the distance and relationship between home and work, and we consider why analysis of workplaces in historical research has been limited to few dimensions and questions. We propose a terminological distinction between worksites, which are the geographical places of work, and workspaces, the physical surroundings in which work occurs. Beyond a limited set of examples that we discuss, worksites and workspaces have received relatively little sustained attention in historical research on work and labour. We survey contemporary research on changing worksites, the impacts of new travel-to-work patterns on quality of life, and the effects of workspace arrangements. We then highlight three workplace-related topics that have attracted interest from historians: the transition from home-based work to factories during industrialization; the history of commuting; and the locations of women’s work. We observe that interest has emerged in response to fundamental changes in work, but that there is much scope for further investigation. As the current moment contains similar shifts, we suggest directions for research into historical patterns of work that can contribute to the contemporary debate over the effects of remote working and changing workspace arrangements. |
| Date: | 2024–10–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_213 |
| By: | Julia Angerer; Wolfgang Brunauer |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an analysis of short-term real estate trades in Austria, focusing on speculation with real estate prices and the involvement of intermediary companies. The study examines the location, timeframe, and companies participating in transactions occurring within short time spans, ranging from same-day transactions to those spanning several days or weeks. Sell-resell activities are analyzed using a comprehensive dataset of transactions in the time frame from 2019 up to 2024. Additionally, it investigates the financial gains facilitated by intermediary firms, considering characteristics such as company age. The analysis extends to exploring potential patterns in dedications and other relevant metrics for presenting results. At the geospatial level, the frequency of such cases can be aggregated to provide broader insights. The paper points out the value and highlights the potential of the combined and enriched data sources we are using at Data Science Service GmbH. Suggestions for practical applications, in exploration tools to identify affected properties, are also discussed. Furthermore, potential benefits for clients, and financial regulatory bodies, are considered. However, the paper acknowledges potential limitations stemming from unidentified shares, and discrepancies due to temporal mismatch. Despite these challenges, the study underscores the overall robustness of the dataset while emphasizing the importance of careful interpretation. |
| Keywords: | Austrian real estate market; sell-resell analysis; short-term trades; transaction data analysis |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2024–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2024-197 |
| By: | Elsby, Michael W.L.; Smith, Jennifer C.; Wadsworth, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | This article provides a first synthesis of population flows and labor market dynamics across immigrant and native-born populations. We devise a novel dynamic accounting methodology that integrates population flows from two sources-changes in birth cohort size and immigrant flows-with labor market dynamics. We illustrate the method using data for the United Kingdom, where population flows have been large and cyclical, driven first by the maturation of baby boom cohorts in the 1980s and later by immigration in the 2000s. New measures of labor market flows by migrant status uncover the flow origins of disparities in the levels and cyclicality of immigrant and native labor market outcomes and their more recent convergence. An application of our accounting framework reveals that population flows have played a nontrivial role in the volatility of labor markets among the UK-born and, especially, immigrants. |
| Keywords: | immigration; labor market dynamics; worker flows |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:125889 |