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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Zhihui Li (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences); Chao Li (University of Auckland); John Gibson (University of Waikato); Xiangzheng Deng (Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences) |
| Abstract: | China has experienced unprecedented largescale internal migration since the late 1970s. We analyse spatiotemporal changes in migration for 284 prefectural-level cities in China using the 2000, 2010 and 2020 censuses. These cities have over 90% of China's population. Attractiveness of cities varies with amenities, so we use econometric models to identify city-level and province-level economic characteristics and social and natural amenities that drive net migration. Inter-city migration in China is still growing rapidly, with striking regional disparities. China's three urban mega-regions (Beijing-Tianjin, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta) received most migrants over these two decades, with many coastal and tier-2 cities, especially inland provincial capital cities, emerging as new destinations since 2010. Conversely, inland lower-tier cities have experienced large population losses, especially in Northeast China recently. The importance of amenities in affecting migration patterns differs between all sample cities and 35 major cities, and changes over time. Employment opportunities, and higher wages and development levels still attract migrants, but migrants trade off levels versus growth (source areas are poorer but faster growing than destinations). Booming housing markets have not pushed migrants away. Both city and province fiscal pressures have negative impacts on the net migration rate, while province-level fiscal decentralization enhances attractiveness. Cities with better public transportation services and more pleasant climate are more attractive to migrants. These factors matter less for the major cities, apart from economic opportunities and transportation services. Air quality and province-level economic development significantly contribute to differences in net migration rates among the major cities. Findings from this study can help policymakers to formulate governance measures for sustainable city development during the largest rural-to-urban population flow in human history. |
| Keywords: | inter-city migration;net migration rate;migration patterns;urban amenities;China |
| JEL: | R12 |
| Date: | 2024–07–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:24/05 |
| By: | Anand Chopra; Ronit Mukherji |
| Abstract: | This paper illustrates the role of low-skilled immigrants' location choice as a channel through which local labour markets adjust to automation. We employ a shift-share instrumental variable approach to demonstrate that low-skilled immigrants are more mobile than low-skilled native born in response to robot exposure. Low-skilled immigrants are less likely to enter and more likely to exit from highly robot-exposed regions. Immigrants' location decisions attenuate wage losses due to robot exposure for low-skilled natives. Low-skilled native workers experience a 0.07 percentage point smaller decline in wages comparing commuting zones at the 50th and 25th percentiles of low-skilled immigrant shares. |
| Keywords: | Automation, Geographic labour mobility, Immigrants, Technology |
| JEL: | J15 J23 J31 J61 O33 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–06–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:liv:livedp:202409 |
| By: | Simone Maxand; Hend Sallam |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of immigration on public budgets using administrative data from German districts (Kreise). While previous literature suggests that the fiscal benefits of migration depend on government spending responses to immigration, the local-level effects in Germany remain relatively unexplored. Our study analyzes how immigration influences public spending, the provision of public goods, and public revenues from 2010 to 2019. Employing the post-double selection LASSO method for model identification and instrument generation, our results suggest that an increase in the foreign population proportion at the district level does not significantly affect public investment spending or collected tax revenues. Overall, along with 2011 results at the community level (Gemeinde), this research discusses the importance of distinguishing between different local levels, migration groups, and expenditure categories, when studying the gains and burdens of immigration in Germany. |
| Keywords: | immigration, size of the government, welfare state, local budgets, spatial economy, public revenues, public spending |
| JEL: | H53 I38 H70 H72 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11162 |
| By: | Richard Hornbeck; Guy Michaels; Ferdinand Rauch |
| Abstract: | We examine “agglomeration shadows” that emerge around large cities, which discourage some economic activities in nearby areas. Identifying agglomeration shadows is complicated, however, by endogenous city formation and “wave interference” that we show in simulations. We use the locations of ancient ports near the Mediterranean, which seeded modern cities, to estimate agglomeration shadows cast on nearby areas. We find that empirically, as in the simulations, detectable agglomeration shadows emerge for large cities around ancient ports. These patterns extend to modern city locations more generally, and illustrate how encouraging growth in particular places can discourage growth of nearby areas. |
| JEL: | N9 R12 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32634 |
| By: | Keyoung Lee; David Wylie |
| Abstract: | Institutional investors that buy and rent out single family homes have continued to increase their presence after the Great Recession. We examine their neighborhood entry choices and rent charging behavior by leveraging tax and deed transfer records and Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data for 2010-2021. We find that investor share is higher in markets with lower housing values and higher shares of Black and noncollege residents, but higher median income. We also find that investors raise rents at 60% higher rates than the average increase when first acquiring the property, and higher investor share in a neighborhood is correlated with faster rent increases for non-investor landlords. We do not find evidence that investor entry is associated with gentrification, as neighborhoods with high investor activity saw reductions in White and college educated resident share relative to other neighborhoods in their metro area. |
| Keywords: | real estate; institutional investors; single family residential market; rentals |
| JEL: | G23 R21 R23 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–07–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:98521 |
| By: | Victor Lavy (Department of Economics, University of Warwick, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and NBER); Rigissa Megalokonomou (Department of Economics, Monash University, University of Queensland, CESifo, and IZA) |
| Abstract: | A recent critique of using teachers’ test score value-added (TVA) is that teacher quality is multifaceted; some teachers are effective in raising test scores, others are effective in improving long-term outcomes This paper ex-ploits an institutional setting where high school teachers are randomly assigned to classes to compute multiple long-run TVA measures based on university schooling outcomes and high school behavior. We find substantial correlations between test scores and long-run TVA but zero correlations between these two TVA measures and behavior TVA. We find that short-term test-score TVA and long-run TVA are highly correlated and equally good predictors of long-term outcomes. |
| Keywords: | teacher quality, quasi-experimental random assignment, university quality, choice of university study, panel information on teachers |
| JEL: | J24 J21 J16 I24 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2024-12 |
| By: | Johnsen, Julian V. (SNF, Bergen); Khoury, Laura (PSL Université Paris Dauphine) |
| Abstract: | Peer interactions play a key role in the criminal sector due to its secrecy and lack of formal institutions. A significant part of criminal peer exposure happens in prison, directly influenced by policymakers. This paper provides a broader understanding of how peer effects shape criminal behavior among prison inmates, focusing on co-inmate impacts on recidivism and criminal network formation. Using Norwegian register data on over 140, 000 prison spells, we causally identify peer effects through within-prison variation in peers over time. Our analysis reveals several new insights. First, exposure to more experienced co-inmates increases recidivism. Second, exposure to "top criminals" (i.e. those with extreme levels of criminal experience) plays a distinctive role in shaping these recidivism patterns. Third, inmates form lasting criminal networks, as proxied by post-incarceration co-offending. Fourth, homophily intensifies these peer effects. These findings contribute to the theoretical understanding of peer influences in criminal activities and offer practical insights for reducing recidivism through strategic inmate grouping and prison management policies. |
| Keywords: | prison inmates, incarceration, criminal behavior, criminal experi- ence, criminal networks, recidivism |
| JEL: | K14 K42 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17114 |
| By: | Andrea Ramazzotti (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF) |
| Abstract: | Should minimum wages adjust to local productivity? Italy’s sectoral collective agreements make no adjustment, as they establish national wage floors irrespective of regional variation in income or cost of living. While some favour its equalizing action, many have argued that this approach causes inefficiencies that include low migration to more productive areas and high structural unemployment in less productive ones. This paper addresses these concerns by studying the spatial equalization of minimum wages in 1972, when the system was first introduced, using an original dataset of labour market variables covering the period 1962-1981. First, the paper presents an augmented gravity model of internal migration showing that spatial differentials in nominal minimum wages were a strong pull factors for both short- and long-distance migration before the reform, but not afterwards. Then, discussing potential mechanisms, the paper shows that the decrease in internal migration during the 1970s was associated with the inception of the spatial mismatches that characterize Italy’s labour markets to this day. |
| Keywords: | Wage Differentials, Internal Migration, Labor Economic History. |
| JEL: | J31 J61 N34 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–06–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:716 |
| By: | Artz, Benjamin (University of Wisconsin, Oshkosh); Welsch, David M. (University of Wisconsin. Whitewater) |
| Abstract: | We employ a unique 10-year panel dataset from California to examine both the effect crime has on homelessness as well as the effect homelessness has on crime. Our main estimator accounts for endogeneity by incorporating dynamics, controlling for time invariant unobserved heterogeneity, and relaxing the strict exogeneity assumption for our key variables of interest. We find strong evidence that regions experiencing increases in property crime, but not violent crime, should expect a practically significant increase in homelessness, whereas increases in homelessness increases the number of violent crimes, but not property crimes. Robustness and falsification checks confirm the results. |
| Keywords: | homeless, crime, instrumental variables |
| JEL: | K14 R20 C23 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17086 |
| By: | Jaime Arellano-Bover; Shmuel San |
| Abstract: | We study how job mobility, firms, and firm-ladder climbing can shape immigrants’ labor market success. Our context is the mass migration of former Soviet Union Jews to Israel during the 1990s. Once in Israel, these immigrants faced none of the legal barriers that are typically posed by migration regulations around the world, offering a unique backdrop to study undistorted immigrants’ job mobility and resulting unconstrained assimilation. Rich administrative data allows us to follow immigrants for up to three decades after arrival. Differential sorting across firms and differential pay-setting within firms both explain important shares of the initial immigrant-native wage gap and subsequent convergence dynamics. Moreover, immigrants are more mobile than natives and faster at climbing the firm ladder, even in the long term. As such, firm-to-firm mobility is a key driver of these immigrants’ long-run prosperity. Lastly, we quantify a previously undocumented job utility gap when accounting for non-wage amenities, which exacerbates immigrant-native disparities based on pay alone. |
| Keywords: | immigration, firms, job mobility, labor market assimilation |
| JEL: | J31 J61 F22 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11177 |
| By: | Eric A. Hanushek; Andrew J. Morgan; Steven G. Rivkin; Jeffrey C. Schiman; Ayman Shakeel; Lauren Sartain |
| Abstract: | Using rich Texas administrative data, we estimate the impact of middle school principals on post-secondary schooling, employment, and criminal justice outcomes. The results highlight the importance of school leadership, though striking differences emerge in the relative importance of different skill dimensions to different outcomes. The estimates reveal large and highly significant effects of principal value-added to cognitive skills on the productive activities of schooling and work but much weaker effects of value-added to noncognitive skills on these outcomes. In contrast, there is little or no evidence that middle school principals affect the probability a male is arrested and has a guilty disposition by raising cognitive skills but strong evidence that they affect these outcomes through their impacts on noncognitive skills, especially those related to the probability of an out-of-school suspension. In addition, the principal effects on the probability of engagement in the criminal justice system are much larger for Black than for nonBlack males, corresponding to race differences in engagement with the criminal justice system. |
| JEL: | I20 J45 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32642 |
| By: | Valerie Preston; John Shields; Valerie Pruegger; Mireille Paquet; Sivakamy Thayaalan; Gabriel Eidelman; Spencer Neufeld; Kass Forman (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | As of June 2024, Canada’s population exceeded 41 million when including temporary foreign workers. Less than two years ago, the federal government announced that Canada would aim to welcome 500, 000 permanent residents per year by 2025, a growth in population that excluded temporary foreign workers, asylum seekers, and others. The vast majority of these new residents will reside in cities resulting in a rising demand for services to support and integrate newcomers. While many of the settlement services required fall within the purview of local government, municipalities do not enjoy any formal powers related to immigration, nor the funds to handle these increased pressures. The ninth report in the Who Does What series from the Institute on Municipal Finance and Governance (IMFG) and the Urban Policy Lab examines the role that municipalities play in immigration and their ability to fund, manage, and deliver services and implement policies to respond to new arrivals. Valerie Preston and John Shields show how non-governmental organizations and municipalities support international migrants, the complex links between them and the other orders of government, and the tensions and challenges in these relationships, using examples from Ontario. Valerie Pruegger explores the journey to get a municipal immigration policy approved by Calgary City Council, how it was subsequently implemented, and the various barriers encountered along the way. She identifies the strategies that were successful in overcoming these challenges. Mireille Paquet and Sivakamy Thayaalan examine what is needed to help municipalities handle the situation of residents who live with precarious immigration status or without any immigration status. They argue that municipalities need to have a role in the governance of immigration in Canada. |
| Keywords: | Canada, municipalities, immigration, intergovernmental relations, newcomers, precarity |
| JEL: | J15 J18 H70 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mfg:mfgwdw:9 |
| By: | Yu Aoki (University of Aberdeen and Institute for Study of Labor); Lualhati Santiago (Office for National Statistics) |
| Abstract: | This study aims to identify the causal effects of English proficiency on residential location choices of immigrants. Based on the ideas that immigrants whose mother tongue is linguistically close to English learn the language more easily and that young children learn a new language more easily than older children, we construct an instrument for English proficiency, exploiting linguistic distance from English and age at arrival in the United Kingdom for childhood migrants. Using a unique dataset, we construct various measures of residential clustering aimed at capturing different types of immigrant enclave and find a negative impact of better English skills on residency in a language enclave but a positive impact on residency in an ethnic enclave. We also find strong evidence of an impact of poorer English proficiency on living in a neighbourhood of lower quality. |
| Date: | 2024–06–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:fsug24:27 |
| By: | Rainald Borck; Peter Mulder |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of energy and transport policies on pollution in two developing country cities. We use a quantitative equilibrium model with choice of housing, energy use, residential location, transport mode, and energy technology. Pollution comes from commuting and residential energy use. The model parameters are calibrated to replicate key variables for two developing country cities, Maputo, Mozambique, and Yogyakarta, Indonesia. In the counterfactual simulations, we study how various transport and energy policies affect equilibrium pollution. Policies may be induce rebound effects from increasing residential energy use or switching to high emission modes or locations. In general, these rebound effects tend to be largest for subsidies to public transport or modern residential energy technology. |
| Keywords: | pollution, energy policy, discrete choice, developing country cities |
| JEL: | Q53 Q54 R48 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11152 |
| By: | Lee, Wang-Sheng (Monash University) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of single-sex versus coeducational schooling on students' decisions to pursue STEM fields at the university level. Using administrative data from eight undergraduate cohorts (2012-2019) at a prominent Australian university, we compare students with similar Australian Tertiary Admissions Ranks (ATARs) who could have feasibly enrolled in either school type of comparable quality under different circumstances. We control for individual characteristics and the academic quality of the high schools attended. Our primary outcomes are the proportion of students from each school type choosing a STEM major and their weighted average marks for each year of university studies. Contrary to expectations, we find no evidence that a single-sex high school background increases STEM participation among girls at the university level. Interestingly, students from single-sex high schools show a higher propensity to choose a business major. Additionally, we find that the linear correlation between ATAR scores and first-year university grades is approximately 0.4. However, our analysis suggests that this relationship is better characterized as nonlinear rather than linear. |
| Keywords: | single-sex schooling, coeducational, STEM, academic performance, Australia |
| JEL: | I21 I23 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17084 |
| By: | Salvatore Carrozzo; Alessandra Venturini; Elisabetta Lodigiani |
| Abstract: | The consumption of cultural goods can play a crucial role in the social and economic integration of immigrants into their destination country. In this paper, we investigate the effect of the cultural national program, IoStudio, designed to enhance the consumption of cultural goods among upper secondary students in Italy, on post-secondary investment in education and early labor market conditions among young immigrants. Using data from a unique survey conducted by the Institute for Multiethnic Studies (ISMU) on a repre-sentative sample of the entire immigrant population in the Italian Lombardy region and employing a difference-in-differences estimator, we find that the IoStudio policy has pos-itive effects on investment in post-secondary education. Additionally, young foreigners exposed to the policy exhibit higher earnings, at least in the short run, when they enter the labour market. We claim that cultural consumption by immigrants is a relevant concern, deserving close attention in terms of increasing social capital and labour market inclusion. |
| JEL: | Z11 J61 J62 I26 |
| Date: | 2024–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:dpaper:69 |
| By: | Christopher S. Carpenter; Brandyn F. Churchill |
| Abstract: | We provide novel evidence on the role of social comparisons in shaping adolescent body misperception. Using an instrumental variables approach leveraging variation in relative age generated by school entry cutoff months and data from the Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children study, we show that relatively older students are more likely to misperceive their weight harshly relative to their BMIs compared to their same-age counterparts who are relatively younger within their classrooms. Meanwhile, relatively younger students are more likely to misperceive their weight leniently relative to their BMIs. We then show that relatively older students are less likely to be overweight or obese, consume more low-calorie foods, and report higher levels of physical activity. Overall, our results suggest that relatively older students base their weight-related expectations and behaviors on their younger peers, while relatively younger students compare themselves to their older peers. |
| JEL: | I1 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32629 |
| By: | Fisher, Jack; Gavazza, Alessandro; Liu, Lu; Ramadorai, Tarun; Tripathy, Jagdish |
| Abstract: | In household finance markets, inactive households can implicitly cross-subsidize active households who promptly respond to financial incentives. We assess the magnitude and distribution of cross-subsidies in the mortgage market. To do so, we build a structural model of household mortgage refinancing and estimate it on rich administrative data covering the stock of outstanding mortgages in the UK. We estimate sizeable cross-subsidies that flow from relatively poorer households and those located in less-wealthy areas towards richer households and those located in wealthier areas. Our work highlights how the design of household finance markets can contribute to wealth inequality. |
| Keywords: | mortages; refinancing; cross-subsidies; wealth inequality; household inaction and inertia; household finance |
| JEL: | G21 G00 N20 R21 R31 L51 |
| Date: | 2024–08–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:123686 |
| By: | Lange, Jan-Hendrik; Speth, Daniel; Plötz, Patrick |
| Abstract: | Battery electric trucks (BETs) are the most promising option for fast and large-scale CO2 emission reduction in road freight transport. Yet, the limited range and longer charging times compared to diesel trucks make long-haul BET applications challenging, so a comprehensive fast charging network for BETs is required. However, little is known about optimal truck charging locations for longhaul trucking in Europe. Here we derive optimized truck charging networks consisting of publicly accessible locations across the continent. Based on European truck traffic flow estimates for 2030 and actual truck stop locations we construct a long-term minimum charging network that covers the expected charging demand. Our approach introduces an origin-destination pair sampling method and includes local capacity constraints to compute an optimized stepwise network expansion along the highest demand routes in Europe. For an electrification target of 15% BET share in long-haul and without depot charging, our results suggest that about 91% of electric long-haul truck traffic across Europe can be enabled already with a network of 1, 000 locations, while 500 locations would suffice for about 50%. We furthermore show how the coverage of origin-destination flows scales with the number of locations and the size of the stations. Ideal locations to cover many truck trips are at highway intersections and along major European road freight corridors (TEN-T core network). |
| Keywords: | charging infrastructure, battery trucks, megawatt charging |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:300275 |
| By: | Andrea Ramazzotti (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF) |
| Abstract: | Do minimum wages influence post-compulsory school enrollment and educational choices? This paper studies the effect of sectorally-bargained minimum wages using a quasi-natural historical experiment from Italy around 1969, when labour unions obtained steep wage raises for manufacturing workers. Italy’s weakly-selective educational system—whereby students choose specialist educational curricula at age fourteen—allows to separately identify the impact on enrollment from that on educational choices. Absent microdata for the period under study, I present original estimates of education and labour-market variables at the province level with annual frequency between 1962 and 1982. Exploiting exogenous spatial variation in the intensity of the minimum wage hike between provinces with an instrumental variable approach and flexible Difference-in-Differences, I find a temporary increase in early school leaving and a permanent substitution away from vocational schools preparing for manufacturing jobs. The length of the adjustment might have caused a significant long-term loss for Italy’s human capital stock. |
| Keywords: | Wage Differentials, Education, Schooling, Economic History: Europe post-1913. |
| JEL: | J24 J31 N34 |
| Date: | 2024–06–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:717 |
| By: | Ina Ganguli; Jennifer R. Withrow |
| Abstract: | On February 5, 1917, the United States passed the Immigration Act of 1917, which included a test for all migrants arriving to the U.S. to prove they were literate. The Literacy Test was one of the first and few times the U.S. used a broad ‘skill-based’ immigration policy in an attempt to limit migration. We assess whether the Immigration Act had any measurable impacts on immigration to the U.S. Using a differences-in-differences approach and digitized data from Ellis Island ship manifests from directly before and after the Act’s passage and enactment, we show that the Act significantly altered selection into migration to the U.S. from Europe through Ellis Island, reducing migration from low literacy countries by 70 percent compared to arrivals from high-literacy countries. We also discuss other provisions of the Act that had the potential to influence the gender composition of arrivals. We show that women – and in particular single women – were less likely to arrive after its passage. Our analysis suggests that even during this period of lower immigration due to WWI and rising literacy levels, the 1917 Act was a consequential moment in immigration history in the United States. |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J61 N32 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32624 |
| By: | Bram van der Kroft; Juan Palacios; Roberto Rigobon; Siqi Zheng |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effect of sustainable shareholder engagement on firm's investments. We study the real estate industry where investments are sporadic and occur following depreciation cycles. SEC restrictions (rule 240.14a-8) on shareholder proposals, in combination with the asset depreciation cycles, create random variation enabling us to identify firms' sustainable investment decisions. Using unique micro-data tracking investments in all public US commercial real estate properties over the past two decades, we find that sustainable engagement effectively steers firms to initiate tangible and long-lasting sustainable retrofits. However, engagement is ineffective or impairs such investments when it does not coincide with reinvestment periods, or investors vote down the proposal. |
| JEL: | G11 M14 Q56 R0 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32646 |
| By: | Parisa Ghasemi (University of Coimbra, Faculty of Economics); Paulino Teixeira (University of Coimbra, Centre for Business and Economics and Faculty of Economics); Carlos Carreira (University of Coimbra, Centre for Business and Economics and Faculty of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we investigate the impact of the share of the foreign labor force on the wage of native workers in Portugal between 2010 and 2019 using linked employer-employee data from Quadros de Pessoal. By leveraging job characteristics from the O*NET skill taxonomy, we create more homogeneous skill groups, enabling a precise analysis of immigration's impact on specific skill sets. The empirical analysis, focusing on occupation-experience groups, reveals a positive association between native wages and immigrant shares. In contrast, when groups are based on education-experience, the relationship appears negative. These contradictory findings suggest that the impact of immigration on native wages varies significantly depending on how labor markets are segmented. Furthermore, our analysis demonstrates a positive and statistically significant effect on native wages in high-skilled occupations, while native wages in low-skilled occupations are negatively affected due to increased competition. Our findings highlight the importance of considering occupation classification over simple education levels and suggest that diverse results in existing literature may be due to sample averaging. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, native wages, native-immigrants’ complementarities |
| JEL: | J24 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gmf:papers:2024-02 |
| By: | Evan Herrnstadt; Byoung Hark Yoo |
| Abstract: | This paper uses data on mortgages and expected flood damage for each residential property in the United States to examine how much flood damage is expected to increase the cost of federally backed mortgages (referred to as the subsidy cost). The Congressional Budget Office uses its estimate of the subsidy cost to determine the budgetary effects of mortgages guaranteed directly by the federal government and through entities such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The analysis focuses only on costs to the federal mortgage programs and does not consider any costs borne by |
| JEL: | G21 H60 H81 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024–07–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:wpaper:60167 |
| By: | Sumedha Gupta; Dario Salcedo; Kosali I. Simon |
| Abstract: | Schools enhance the lives of families in various ways, and one potential consequence of their closures is worsened parental well-being. We study the effects of COVID-19 pandemic school closures on parental mental health by measuring consumption of products that are often used to cope with increased stress and depression. Using a cohort based difference in difference (DID) design and commercial claims data, we find an increase in maternal anti-depressant use by 1.5%, in zip codes with above median school closures; there are no statistically significant effects for paternal antidepressant use, and we are able to rule out fairly small values. Some parents may "self-medicate" as a coping mechanism rather than seek formal medical care. Using a county based DID design and retail scanner data, we find alcohol sales increased by 2% in counties with above median school closures. Both anti-depressant prescriptions and alcohol sales returned to base line levels as in-person schooling resumed. We explore whether the burdens of school closures were disparately concentrated in minoritized communities, and find that anti-depressant and alcohol use increases were concentrated in zip codes with above median Black and Asian populations, but not in zip codes with a predominantly White or Hispanic population. Overall, these results suggest that the school system plays an important role in maintaining population mental well-being outcomes and in helping families cope with stress. |
| JEL: | I0 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32516 |
| By: | Zachary Porreca |
| Abstract: | I analyze the demand side impacts of a supply side intervention into the market for illegal drugs in what has been described as America’s largest open air drug market. Beginning in 2018, the Pennsylvania Attorney General’s office and the Philadelphia Police Department engaged in an ambitious effort to shut down the drug market in Philadelphia’s Kensington neighborhood. The intervention involved increased police presence in the targeted area alongside a series of targeted “kingpin” sweeps which were intended to remove the most pervasive operators from the market. I employ highly granular Safegraph cell phone location data to track changes in traffic flows between census block groups, observing that the initiative led to sizable and persistent reductions in traffic flows to the target area. Additionally, in contrast to substitution effects observed in other work, I observe that the initiative led to reductions in traffic flows to other regional drug markets and large declines in overdose mortality in the Philadelphia metropolitan area as a whole, suggesting a genuine reduction in the demand for illegal narcotics. With a combination of theory and empirics, I argue that this reduction in regional demand is able to be achieved due to the initiative disrupting a supply-chain that data indicates flows from the target area outwards to smaller satellite markets. Together this all suggests that, despite the inelastic demand for narcotics, regionally linked markets can be impacted broadly by location specific interventions. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:baf:cbafwp:cbafwp24227 |
| By: | Becka Brolinson (Federal Housing Finance Agency); Jessica Shui (Federal Housing Finance Agency); November Wilson (Federal Housing Finance Agency) |
| Abstract: | We estimate residential energy use and CO2 emissions for single-family homes using administrative data from approximately 45 million property appraisals, or 1.8 billion property-month observations. First, we find that from 2013 to 2021, CO2 emissions decreased by 11.5 percent in aggregate in our sample. Emissions from electricity use decreased by 20.8 percent, while emissions from natural gas use for home heating increased by 11 percent over the same time. Second, we estimate that the majority of the decline in CO2 emissions from properties in our sample can be attributed to the greening of US energy generation, rather than changes over time to property-level characteristics. Third, we show that aggregate emissions estimates from the property-level data closely align with aggregate emissions estimates using publicly available state-level data in 2020, providing validation of our approach using property-level data and demonstrating that for aggregate estimates, state-level data is sufficient. |
| Keywords: | energy use, carbon emissions, housing |
| JEL: | Q54 R11 R30 |
| Date: | 2024–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hfa:wpaper:24-05 |
| By: | Vivas Flores, Alexis E.; Beatty, Timothy |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Labor And Human Capital, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:343954 |
| By: | Elena Pirani (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze); Maria Veronica Dorgali (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze); Valentina Tocchioni (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze); Alessandra Petrucci (Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", Università di Firenze) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we contribute to the growing, albeit still limited, body of research on the importance of the living environment for individual well-being, focusing on the population aged 65 and over in Italy. We explore life satisfaction, a cognitive component of an individual’s well-being that may help evaluate individuals’ ability to adapt to life changes and challenges of ageing. We investigate various aspects of the living environment, both the indoor characteristics of the housing – its quality and adequacy – and the outdoor features of the immediate neighbourhood environment – its liveability and accessibility. The study provides robust evidence that adequate housing conditions might positively influence the life satisfaction of Italian older adults. Besides, we found that aspects relative to the living environment – namely area friendliness, its maintenance and (absence of) pollution, and the ease of access to shops and services are valuable for a satisfying life. Importantly, whether an inevitable overlap between these characteristics may exist, both housing and neighbourhood living conditions, in their various facets, exert a separate, specific, and substantial role in life satisfaction. Our results might inform city planning interventions about the advantages of creating friendly communities and well-designed urban spaces to support active ageing. |
| Keywords: | living environment, well-being, older adults, composite indicators, Italy |
| JEL: | I31 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fir:econom:wp2024_06 |
| By: | Federico S. Mandelman; Yang Yu; Francesco Zanetti; Andrei Zlate |
| Abstract: | We document a steady decline in low-skilled immigration that began with the onset of the Great Recession in 2007, which was associated with labor shortages in low-skilled service occupations and a decline in the skill premium. Falling returns to high-skilled jobs coincided with a decline in the educational attainment of native-born workers. We develop and estimate a stochastic growth model with endogenous immigration and training to account for these facts and study macroeconomic performance and welfare. Lower immigration leads to higher wages for low-skilled workers and higher consumer prices. Importantly, the decline in the skill premium discourages the training of native workers, persistently reducing aggregate productivity and welfare. Stimulus policies during the COVID-19 pandemic, amid a widespread shortage of low-skilled immigrant labor, exacerbated the rise in consumer prices and reduced welfare. We show that the 2021-2023 immigration surge helped to partially alleviate existing labor shortages and restore welfare. |
| Keywords: | immigration, skill premium, task upgrading, heterogeneous workers |
| JEL: | F16 F22 F41 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:camaaa:2024-46 |
| By: | Francis Wong |
| Abstract: | Using high-frequency administrative data covering millions of US homeowners, I document three novel facts about homeowner responses to property tax increases driven by rising home values. First, non-migrating homeowners cut consumption, exhibit financial distress, and do not borrow against their higher home values. These responses run contrary to the predictions of frictionless models, in which homeowners should borrow to avoid costly adjustments. Second, heterogeneity analysis shows that consumption responses do not vary by liquidity, consistent with savings target behavior. In contrast, distress responses are concentrated among liquidity-constrained homeowners. Many homeowners report being debt averse and therefore unwilling to borrow in order to avoid illiquidity and distress. Third, tax hikes induce migration—partly by displacing illiquid homeowners—but do not accelerate neighborhood change. A simple welfare framework reveals that the largest costs of property taxes arise from financial distress among liquidity-constrained homeowners. |
| Keywords: | property taxes, housing, household finance |
| JEL: | H20 G51 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11185 |
| By: | Gustaf Bruze; Alexander Kjær Hilsløv; Jonas Maibom |
| Abstract: | Individuals with extensive debt may be granted debt relief in court. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of the Danish debt relief program with data from court records linked to nationwide register data. Using event-study methods and quasi-random assignment of applicants to court trustees with varying admission rates, we show that debt relief leads to a large increase in earned income, employment, assets, real estate, secured debt, home ownership, and wealth that persists for more than 25 years after a court ruling. The net transition of workers into employment accounts for two thirds of the increase in earned income. |
| Keywords: | debt relief, personal bankruptcy, household finance |
| JEL: | D14 D31 K35 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11159 |
| By: | Ribas, Rafael Perez (Boise State University); Sampaio, Breno (Universidade Federal de Pernambuco); Trevisan, Giuseppe (Universidade Federal de Pernambuco) |
| Abstract: | The ranking system within academic environments may impact future professional trajectories. Examining the influence of class rank on college students' managerial attainment is crucial for understanding some determinants of career advancement. This paper estimates the effect of a low rank in a highperforming class on the probability of college students attaining a managerial position in the future. Our data combine administrative records from a highly selective university in Brazil and employment registries. For most programs, this university divides first-year students into two classes based on their preferences and admission scores. In a regression discontinuity design, we control for students' preferences and inherent skills by comparing the last student admitted to the high-score class (the 'first class') with the first student excluded from this class, who joins the 'second class.' Results show that the last student in the first class is 10 percentage points less likely to attain a managerial position soon after graduating than a similar student in the second class. Although this effect is initially similar between genders, it diminishes for men over time while persisting for women. Overall, our study indicates that better-performing peers can hinder a student's managerial career by lowering their relative rank in the classroom. |
| Keywords: | leadership, relative performance, learning environment, peer effect, ranking effect |
| JEL: | D91 I23 J16 J24 M51 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17082 |
| By: | Samuel Ligonnière (Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée); Salima Ouerk (National Bank of Belgium) |
| Abstract: | Is current monetary policy making the distribution of credit more unequal? Using French household-level data, we document credit volumes along the income distribution. Our analysis centers on assessing the impact of surprises in monetary policy on credit volumes at different income levels. Expansionary monetary policy surprises lead to a surge in mortgage credit exclusively for households within the top 20% income bracket. Monetary policy then does not impact mortgage credit volume for 80% of households, whereas its effect on consumer credit exists and remains consistent across the income distribution. This result is notably associated with the engagement of this particular income group in rental investments. Controlling for bank decision factors and city dynamics, we attribute these results to individual demand factors. Mechanisms related to intertemporal substitution and affordability drive the impact of monetary policy surprises. They manifest through the policy's influence on collaterals and a larger down payment. |
| Date: | 2024–06–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:fsug24:08 |
| By: | Wang, Haoying; Young, Michael |
| Keywords: | Resource/Energy Economics And Policy, Environmental Economics And Policy, Land Economics/Use |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:343990 |
| By: | Hoyt Bleakley; Paul Rhode |
| Abstract: | To engage with the large literature on the economic effects of slavery, we use antebellum census data to test for statistical differences at the 1860 free-slave border. We find evidence of lower population density, less intensive land use, and lower farm values on the slave side. Half of the border region was half underutilized. This does not support the view that abolition was a costly constraint for landowners. Indeed, the lower demand for similar, yet cheaper, land presents a different puzzle: why wouldn't the yeomen farmers cross the border to fill up empty land in slave states, as was happening in the free states of the Old Northwest? On this point, we find evidence of higher wages on the slave side, indicating an aversion of free labor to working in a slave society. This evidence of systemically lower economic performance in slavery-legal areas suggests that the earlier literature on the profitability of plantations was misplaced, or at least incomplete. |
| JEL: | N31 N51 N91 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32640 |
| By: | Gay, Victor; Dazey, Margot |
| Abstract: | How is support for right-wing populist parties affected by exposure to Muslim visibility? Using an original database on French mosques, this article analyzes the relationship between the presence of mosques and support for the Front National at the polling station level in the late 2000s. It finds that the propensity to vote for the Front National increases in polling stations up to intermediate distances from mosques and then decreases, suggesting a spatial mechanism known as the halo effect. The analysis also shows that larger mosques and those with minarets are associated with an accentuated halo effect, suggesting the importance of the salience of minority groups rather than their relative size in influencing political behavior. |
| Keywords: | Radical right; mosque; immigration; France; halo effect |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tse:iastwp:129453 |
| By: | Khanal, Nabin Babu; Elbakidze, Levan |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics And Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Resource/Energy Economics And Policy |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:343889 |
| By: | Terenzio Fava (Department of Economics, Society & Politics, Università di Urbino Carlo Bo) |
| Abstract: | The nowadays narratives show us a strict combination between bullying and school that seems indissoluble. The latter is "imposed" on us as its natural environment. Its “natural area†. But is this really the case or is it perhaps that the main context of bullying is elsewhere? Outside it? In circles of acquaintances, friendships and recreational ctivities? Other questions are important. Is this a form of deviance or, more simply, a normal expression of a specific phase of life? Are we facing with individual pathologies related to internal deficits or more realistically with the dynamics of interaction typical of adolescence? We will try to analyze all these aspects by observing the data collected thanks to field research conducted in high schools in central Italy. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:urb:wpaper:23_03 |
| By: | Alvin Christian; Matthew Ronfeldt; Basit Zafar |
| Abstract: | We survey undergraduate students at a large public university to understand the pecuniary and non-pecuniary factors driving their college major and career decisions with a focus on K-12 teaching. While the average student reports there is a 6% chance they will pursue teaching, almost 27% report a nonzero chance of working as a teacher in the future. Students, relative to existing statistics, generally believe they would earn substantially more in a non-teaching job (relative to a teaching job). We run a randomized information experiment where we provide students with information on the pecuniary and non-pecuniary job characteristics of teachers and non-teachers. This low-cost informational intervention impacts students' beliefs about their job characteristics if they were to work as a teacher or non-teacher, and increases the reported likelihood they will major or minor in education by 35% and pursue a job as a teacher or in education by 14%. Linking the survey data with administrative transcript records, we find that the intervention had small (and weak) impacts on the decision to minor in education in the subsequent year. Overall, our results indicate that students hold biased beliefs about their career prospects, they update these beliefs when provided with information, and that this information has limited impacts on their choices regarding studying and having a career in teaching. |
| JEL: | D80 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32641 |
| By: | Andrew Leigh |
| Abstract: | What are the economic returns to education in Australia? Using data from the 2018- 2022 waves of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey, and taking account of existing estimates of ability bias and social returns to schooling, I estimate the economic return to various levels of education. As in Leigh (2008), which used data from the 2001-2005 waves of the same survey, I report large returns. Across high school, vocational education and university qualifications, an additional year of schooling raises hourly wages by 7 percent, boosts annual earnings by 13 percent, and increases the probability of reporting positive earnings by 4 percentage points. In terms of hourly wages, the largest per-year returns are from completing a Bachelor degree. In terms of annual earnings, the largest per-year returns are from completing year 12. Testing for changes in returns to schooling over time provides little evidence of systematic trends over the period 2001-2022. Over the lifecycle, returns to education tend to decline from age 60 for high school and vocational qualifications, and tend to decline from age 55 for university qualifications, suggesting that the value of education diminishes as workers approach retirement age. |
| Keywords: | returns to education, ability bias, high school, vocational training, university |
| JEL: | I28 J31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11146 |
| By: | Madeline Duhon; Lia Fernald; Joan Hamory; Edward Miguel; Eric Ochieng; Michael W. Walker |
| Abstract: | This study exploits experimental variation in parent human capital (early-life school-based deworming) and a shock to schooling (extended Covid closures) to estimate how these factors interact in the production of child human capital within a sample of 3, 500 Kenyan 3-8 year olds. Parents with additional exposure to childhood deworming have children with improved human capital, including in health, non-cognitive development, and cognition; cognitive scores are +0.26 standard deviation units higher among treated parents' school-age children, only prior to school closures. Findings are interpreted through a model where home-based and school inputs are complements in the production of child cognition. |
| JEL: | I00 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32617 |
| By: | Diedicke, Martin; Janssen, Gerold; Klaus, Manfred; Krätzig, Sebastian; Ortmann, Clemens; Scharmann, Ludwig; Sponer, Wolf-Uwe; Thäger, Frank; Zettwitz, Wolfgang |
| Abstract: | Die nachhaltige Raumentwicklung im Sinne des Raumordnungsrechts strebt den Zustand einer dauerhaft großräumig ausgewogenen Ordnung mit gleichwertigen Lebensverhältnissen in den Teilräumen an (§1 Abs. 2 ROG). Mit der räumlichen Bezugsgröße der Teilräume ist die Länderebene adressiert. Im vorliegenden Positionspapier richtet sich der Blick auf Sachsen, SachsenAnhalt und Thüringen. Ein bedeutendes raumordnerisches Handlungsfeld und prägend für die Lebensverhältnisse vor Ort ist zuvörderst die Daseinsvorsorge. Es gilt, die Herausforderungen und Konsequenzen für diesen Belang aufzuzeigen. Dabei stehen die Definition von Mindeststandards, die Rolle der Mittelzentren und die Digitalisierungsinfrastruktur für die Herstellung gleichwertiger Lebensverhältnisse im Fokus. Angesichts der wachsenden Bedeutung räumlich eingesetzter Fördermittel ist zudem deren Verwendung in den vorgenannten Feldern einzubeziehen und zu würdigen. Der erarbeitete Katalog an Vorschlägen soll der Raumentwicklung insbesondere bei der Aufstellung und Fortschreibung von Raumordnungsplänen neue Grundlagen und Anregungen in Bezug auf das Postulat der Herstellung gleichwertiger Lebensverhältnisse bieten. |
| Abstract: | Sustainable spatial development within the meaning of spatial planning law strives to achieve a permanently balanced large-scale organisation with equivalent living conditions in the sub-regions (Section 1 para. 2 ROG). The spatial reference value of the sub-regions is primarily a challenge for the federal state level. This position paper focusses on Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia. The most important field of action in spatial planning and the one that characterises local living conditions is first and foremost the provision of services of general interest. The challenges and consequences of this need to be identified. The focus here is on the definition of minimum standards, the role of medium-sized towns and cities and the digitalisation infrastructure for the creation of equal living conditions. Against the background of the growing importance of spatially deployed funding, its use in the aforementioned fields will be included and recognised. The list of proposals is intended to provide new foundations and suggestions for spatial development and, in particular, for the preparation and updating of spatial development plans. |
| Keywords: | Gleichwertige Lebensverhältnisse, Raumordnung, Raumentwicklung, Daseinsvorsorge, Mindeststandards, Mittelzentren, Digitalisierung, Equivalent living conditions, Spatial planning, Spatial development, Services of general interest, Minimum standards, Mid-sized cities, Digitalisation |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:arlpos:300233 |
| By: | Joris Wauters (National Bank of Belgium); Zivile Zekaite (Central Bank of Ireland); Garo Garabedian (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | The ECB concluded its strategy review in 2021 with a plan to include owner-occupied housing (OOH) costs in its inflation measure in the future. This presentation uses the Bundesbank's online household panel to study how household expectations would react to this change. We conducted a survey experiment with different information treatments and compared long-run expectations for Euro-area overall in |
| Date: | 2024–06–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:fsug24:11 |
| By: | Luis F. Faundez; Robert Kaestner |
| Abstract: | In this article, we examine the association between family wealth and academic achievement and socioemotional behaviors of children ages 5 to 12. We examine whether wealth prior to birth and at ages 4 or 5 affects academic test scores and behavioral problems during two periods of childhood, ages 5 to 8 and ages 9 to 12, for a large and relatively recent cohort of children. We also examine associations between different forms of wealth (e.g., home equity) and child achievement and behaviors. Finally, we assess whether wealth prior to birth mediates racial/ethnic disparities in child achievement and disparities in achievement by maternal education/ability (AFQT). Results of our analysis indicate that wealth, particularly financial wealth that is the most liquid, has a modest positive association with achievement test scores. We also find that wealth is associated with fewer behavioral problems, but these results are less robust. |
| JEL: | H40 I24 I30 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32628 |
| By: | Fu, Yufei; Boys, Kathryn A.; Cengiz, Ezgi |
| Keywords: | Marketing, Demand And Price Analysis, Agribusiness |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:343991 |
| By: | Giorgio Fabbri (GAEL - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Silvia Faggian (Université de Venise Ca’ Foscari | Università Ca’ Foscari di Venezia); Giuseppe Freni (PARTHENOPE - Università degli Studi di Napoli “Parthenope” = University of Naples) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the dynamics of the exploitation of a natural resource distributed among and flowing between several nodes connected via a weighted, directed network. The network represents the locations and interactions of the resource nodes. A regulator decides to designate some of the nodes as natural reserves where no exploitation is allowed. The remaining nodes are assigned (one‐to‐one) to players, who exploit the resource at the node. It is demonstrated how the equilibrium exploitation and resource stocks depend on the productivity of the resource sites, the structure of the connections between the sites, and the number and preferences of the agents. The best locations to host nature reserves are identified per the model's parameters and correspond to the most central (in the sense of eigenvector centrality) nodes of a suitably redefined network that considers the nodes' productivity. |
| Keywords: | Harvesting, spatial models, differential games, nature reserves |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04612475 |
| By: | Luca Barbaglia (European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra (VA), Italy); Serena Fatica (European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra (VA), Italy, Money and Finance Research Group); Caterina Rho (European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra (VA), Italy) |
| Abstract: | We document that banks charge higher interest rates on loans granted to European small and medium-sized firms located in areas at high risk of flooding. The risk premium, at 6.4 basis points on average, rises with loan duration, and in the case of smaller borrowers and local specialised banks. By contrast, at-risk firms that rely heavily on intangible and movable assets do not face a higher cost of credit, reflecting lower vulnerability to physical risk. Realised flood risk increases SMEs’ financial vulnerability, as firms in flooded counties are more likely to default on their loans than non-disaster borrowers. |
| Keywords: | climate change, loan default, loan pricing, natural disasters |
| JEL: | G24 F21 D81 E22 E44 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wmofir:186 |
| By: | Sergi Basco; Jair N. Ojeda-Joya |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically examines the effects of international remittances on local house prices. International remittances are one of the main drivers of capital inflows in emerging economies. We consider the salient case of Colombia. In the last two decades, remittances have represented, on average, 2% of GDP. One main advantage of studying the Colombian housing market is that we are able to construct a panel of housing returns at the project level. By exploiting the regional and temporal variation of international remittances, we document that they have large heterogeneous effects across regions and housing types. In particular, we find that remittances inflows have positive effects on house prices growth in high unemployment municipalities and low-quality housing. These results hold when considering an IV-strategy using remittances to Latin America countries (excluding Colombia). We develop a stylized model with borrowing constrained households and segmented housing markets to rationalize these results. Our findings suggest that international remittances are an important source of liquidity for credit constrained households. RESUMEN: Este artículo examina empíricamente el efecto de las remesas internacionales en los precios de la vivienda en Colombia. Las remesas internacionales son uno de los principales componentes de los ingresos de capital en economías emergentes. Consideramos el caso relevante de Colombia ya que, en las últimas dos décadas, los ingresos de remesas han representado, en promedio, el 2% del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB). Una de las principales ventajas de estudiar el mercado de vivienda colombiano es la posibilidad de construir un panel de precios de vivienda nueva al nivel de proyectos individuales. Mediante el estudio de las variaciones temporales y regionales de las remesas internacionales, documentamos que estas tienen efectos heterogéneos significativos para las diferentes regiones y tipos de vivienda. En particular, encontramos que los ingresos de remesas tienen efectos positivos en los precios de la vivienda en regiones con alto desempleo y en zonas de estrato bajo. Los resultados se mantienen cuando usamos una estrategia de estimación con variables instrumentales mediante el uso de ingresos de remesas a Latinoamérica (excluyendo a Colombia). Desarrollamos un modelo estilizado con restricciones de endeudamiento para las familias y mercados segmentados de vivienda para entender estos resultados. Estos resultados sugieren que las remesas internacionales son una fuente importante de liquidez para las familias con restricciones de endeudamiento. |
| Keywords: | House Prices, International Remittances, Borrowing Constraints, Instrumental Variables, Precios de vivienda, remesas internacionales, restricciones de endeudamiento, variables instrumentales |
| JEL: | F32 F41 F44 O15 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1273 |
| By: | Sangyup Choi (Yonsei University); Kimoon Jeong (University of Virginia); Jiseob Kim (Yonsei University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the call option-like mortgage refinancing structure can generate sign-dependent effects of monetary policy shocks on consumption. Utilizing European data, we confirm that consumption declines more significantly with a higher share of adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) in response to contractionary monetary policy shocks. However, we uncover that consumption does not necessarily increase more in response to expansionary shocks in the same countries, resulting in asymmetry. Both household-level microdata and model-based quantitative analysis indicate that refinancing in response to a decline in the interest rate—akin to exercising call options—is the key to rationalizing the asymmetric responses between monetary tightening and easing. Since the incentive to refinance heavily depends on its exercising cost, this mechanism is ineffective in economies where the refinancing cost is high. |
| Keywords: | Adjustable-rate mortgages; Refinancing; Monetary policy; Consumption; Call option. |
| JEL: | E21 E32 E44 E52 G21 G51 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yon:wpaper:2024rwp-228 |
| By: | Salla Kalin; Ilpo Kauppinen; Kaisa Kotakorpi; Jukka Pirttilä |
| Abstract: | We contribute to the literature on taxation and international mobility by estimating the impact of labour income taxation on the migration decisions of the entire working population in a high-tax source country, Finland. We find that the average domestic elasticity of migration with respect to the domestic tax rate is very small (around 0.0005). We also examine the income gradient of the semi-elasticity of migration, shown to be the key sufficient statistic in Lehmann et al. (2014). Our estimates indicate that the migration semi-elasticities are increasing for top earners, but remain small at least up to top permille of income earners. |
| Keywords: | taxation, migration |
| JEL: | J61 H31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11165 |
| By: | Fuad, Syed; Farmer, Michael C. |
| Keywords: | Political Economy, Public Economics, Institutional And Behavioral Economics |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:343965 |
| By: | Pérez Pérez, Jorge; Nuño-Ledesma, José; Meléndez, Jorge |
| Keywords: | Labor And Human Capital |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea22:343593 |
| By: | Attar, Itay (Ben Gurion University); Cohen-Zada, Danny (Ben Gurion University); Elder, Todd E. (Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | Instrumental variables estimators typically must satisfy monotonicity conditions to be interpretable as capturing local average treatment effects. Building on previous research that suggests monotonicity is unlikely to hold in the context of school entrance age effects, we develop an approach for identifying the magnitude of the resulting bias. We also assess the impact on monotonicity bias of bandwidth selection in regression discontinuity (RD) designs, finding that "full sample" instrumental variables estimators may outperform RD in many cases. We argue that our approaches are applicable more broadly to numerous settings in which monotonicity is likely to fail. |
| Keywords: | monotonicity, selection, entrance age, regression discontinuity, instrumental variable |
| JEL: | C21 C26 C1 I2 I28 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17088 |
| By: | Kevin Riehl; Anastasios Kouvelas; Michail Makridis |
| Abstract: | City road infrastructure is a public good, and over-consumption by self-interested, rational individuals leads to traffic jams. Congestion pricing is effective in reducing demand to sustainable levels, but also controversial, as it introduces equity issues and systematically discriminates lower-income groups. Karma is a non-monetary, fair, and efficient resource allocation mechanism, that employs an artificial currency different from money, that incentivizes cooperation amongst selfish individuals, and achieves a balance between giving and taking. Where money does not do its job, Karma achieves socially more desirable resource allocations by being aligned with consumers' needs rather than their financial power. This work highlights the value proposition of Karma, gives guidance on important Karma mechanism design elements, and equips the reader with a useful software framework to model Karma economies and predict consumers' behaviour. A case study demonstrates the potential of this feasible alternative to money, without the burden of additional fees. |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2407.05132 |
| By: | Tom Kirchmaier; Ekaterina Oparina |
| Abstract: | Partners or family members are responsible for nearly half of the women killed each year in the UK, and many of these deaths follow long periods of domestic abuse. Yet in recent years, the rate of statement withdrawal by victims of such violence has been rising. Tom Kirchmaier and Ekaterina Oparina highlight the potential role of police workload. |
| Keywords: | Crime, domestic abuse, Police |
| Date: | 2024–06–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:681 |
| By: | Congressional Budget Office |
| Abstract: | CBO examines how the share of properties at risk of flooding that are covered by policies purchased through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) varies across communities with different economic and demographic characteristics. The agency found that most at-risk properties did not have flood insurance through the NFIP in 2023. Properties were more likely to have such coverage in communities with higher median income, in communities in which most dwellings were secondary residences, and in coastal communities. |
| JEL: | G18 G21 G22 G28 H12 H84 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–07–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbo:report:60042 |
| By: | Ho, Christine (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Wang, Yutao (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Zuo, Sharon Xuejing (Fudan University) |
| Abstract: | Daughters may be less likely to migrate with parents because they tend to have more sib-lings in societies with strong son preference. Exploiting exogenous variation in twinning as an instrument, we find that a one unit increase in family size decreases the probability that a daughter migrates by 12.5 percentage points but has negligible effects on sons in China. The negative associations for daughters are stronger when migration restrictions are more stringent. The results are indicative of gendered family size trade-offs in a novel aspect of parental in-vestment and highlight the need to relax migrant children’s education constraints. |
| Keywords: | Child Migration; Family Size Trade-offs; Son Preference; Parental Investment |
| JEL: | D13 J13 J16 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–01–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:2024_001 |
| By: | John H.Y. Edwards (Tulane University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of education quality on income inequality among men and on female labor force participation. I introduce a new dataset on local education expenditures for a 64-year period. By matching education spending to the time and place where each person went to school, the data allow for a much more granular measurement of human capital differences than measures like level of schooling or years of school attainment. They also permit measurement of human capital differences and evolution over a much longer time period than the data that are typically available. I show that differences in the quality of education received during childhood become significant determinants of income differences among fully employed adult men. In a finding that is new to the literature, I report that school quality differentials are significant determinants of how adult women allocate their time between domestic labor and formal wage work. |
| Keywords: | Female Labor Force Participation, Women and Economic Development, Brazil, Education Quality, Income Distribution, Education |
| JEL: | I24 I25 O15 J24 J16 D31 D63 H75 N16 |
| Date: | 2024–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:wpaper:2409 |
| By: | Celhay, Pablo (Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile); Gallegos, Sebastian (Universidad Adolfo Ibañez) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents new evidence on schooling mobility across three generations in six Latin American countries. By combining survey information with national census data, we have constructed a novel dataset that includes 50, 000 triads of grandparents, parents, and children born between 1890 and 1990. We estimate five intergenerational mobility (IGM) measures, finding that (i) the empirical multigenerational persistence in our six countries is twice as high as in developed countries, and 77% higher than what the theoretical model by Becker & Tomes (1986) predicts; (ii) Clark's (2014) theory of high and sticky persistence provides a better approximation for describing mobility across multiple generations in our sample; (iii) Even with high persistence, we uncover significant mobility improvements at the bottom of the distribution by estimating measures of absolute upward mobility (Chetty et al., 2014) and bottom-half mobility (Asher et al., 2022) over three generations. This novel evidence deepens our understanding of long-term mobility, and we expect future research to replicate it as more multigenerational data becomes available in different contexts. |
| Keywords: | developing countries, Latin America, intergenerational mobility, educational policy, multiple generations, compulsory schooling |
| JEL: | J62 N36 I24 I25 I28 |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17072 |