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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Stephan D. Whitaker |
| Abstract: | This Data Brief updates the figures that appeared in “Urban and Regional Migration Estimates: Will Your City Recover from the Pandemic?” with data for 2023:Q4 for all series. Migration estimates enable us to track which urban neighborhoods and metro areas are returning to their old migration patterns and where the pandemic has permanently shifted migration trends. |
| Keywords: | urban migration; Regional migration; COVID-19 pandemic |
| Date: | 2024–03–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:c00003:97961&r=ure |
| By: | Natalia Fabra; Catarina Pintassilgo; Mateus Souza |
| Abstract: | Free-Floating Car-Sharing (FFCS) services allow users to rent electric vehicles by the minute without restrictions on pick-up or drop-off locations within the service area of the rental company. Beyond enlarging the choice set of mobility options, FFCS may reduce congestion and emissions in cities, depending on the service’s usage and substitution patterns. In this paper, we shed light on this by analyzing the universe of FFCS trips conducted through a leading company in Madrid during 2019. We correlate FFCS usage patterns with data on traffic conditions, demographics, and public transit availability across the city. We find complementarities between FFCS and public transport in middle-income areas with scarce public transport options. Moreover, we find that the use of FFCS peaks earlier than overall traffic and is broadly used during the summer months. This suggests that FFCS may have smoothed road traffic in Madrid, contributing to a reduction in overall congestion. |
| Keywords: | Car-sharing, shared mobility, road congestion, electric vehicles. |
| JEL: | R41 Q52 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_512&r=ure |
| By: | Matías Braun; Francisco Gallego; Rodrigo R. Soares |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of renovating deteriorated public spaces on local socioeconomic outcomes. We analyze the impacts of a randomized experiment implemented in 28 fragile neighborhoods of Santiago, Chile. Our findings indicate that the renovation of local squares led to increased use and maintenance of the public space, enhanced neighborhood engagement, and a stronger sense of ownership among residents, along with a reduction in leisure activities outside the neighborhood. Moreover, treated neighborhoods experienced improvements in public security perceptions both within the square and in the broader neighborhood area. We also observe positive effects on trust (among acquaintances) and participation in community organizations. By exploring heterogeneous treatment effects across neighborhoods, we do not find evidence supporting theories emphasizing the joint determination of public security and social capital. Instead, our results suggest that the effects are better explained by increased neighborhood use, particularly in areas that are densely populated and have a higher proportion of social housing. |
| Keywords: | public space recovery, crime, social capital, urban infrastructure |
| JEL: | K42 O18 R53 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ioe:doctra:571&r=ure |
| By: | Tilley, J. Lucas (Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies a large-scale educational expansion to assess whether shocks to educational inputs affect the academic achievement of adult education students. I analyze the effects of a Swedish program that rapidly doubled enrollment in adult education, thus straining school resources. The program targeted low-educated, unemployed adults aged 25 and older. Therefore, my analysis focuses on students under age 25 to reduce the risk that changes in the characteristics of the study sample drive my findings. First, I show that students in regions subject to stronger enrollment expansions experienced stronger negative shocks to educational inputs, including teacher credentials, per-pupil expenditure, and peer quality. Second, I show that the stronger negative shocks to these inputs coincided with larger in- creases in course dropout. Taken together, the two sets of results suggest a causal link between educational inputs and students’ academic progress in adult education. |
| Keywords: | adult education; educational expansion; peer inputs; school resources; student performance; teacher credentials |
| JEL: | I20 I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2023–07–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sofiwp:2023_013&r=ure |
| By: | Ross M. Batzer (Federal Housing Finance Agency); Jonah Coste (Federal Housing Finance Agency); William M. Doerner (Federal Housing Finance Agency); Michael J. Seiler (Federal Housing Finance Agency) |
| Abstract: | People can be "locked-in" or constrained in their ability to make appropriate financial changes, such as being unable to move homes, change jobs, sell stocks, rebalance portfolios, shift financial accounts, adjust insurance policies, transfer investment profits, or inherit wealth. These frictions---whether institutional, legislative, personal, or market-driven---are often overlooked. Residential real estate exemplifies this challenge with its physical immobility, high transaction costs, and concentrated wealth. In the United States, nearly all 50 million active mortgages have fixed rates, and most have interest rates far below prevailing market rates, creating a disincentive to sell. This paper finds that for every percentage point that market mortgage rates exceed the origination interest rate, the probability of sale is decreased by 18.1%. This mortgage rate lock-in led to a 57% reduction in home sales with fixed-rate mortgages in 2023Q4 and prevented 1.33 million sales between 2022Q2 and 2023Q4. The supply reduction increased home prices by 5.7%, outweighing the direct impact of elevated rates, which decreased prices by 3.3%. These findings underscore how mortgage rate lock-in restricts mobility, results in people not living in homes they would prefer, inflates prices, and worsens affordability. Certain borrower groups with lower wealth accumulation are less able to strategically time their sales, worsening inequality. |
| Keywords: | housing, interest rate, lock-in, monetary policy, mortgages |
| JEL: | C50 D10 E50 G21 G50 R23 R31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hfa:wpaper:24-03&r=ure |
| By: | Elacqua, Gregory; Figueroa, Nicolas; Fontaine, Andrés; Margitic, Juan Francisco; Méndez, Carolina |
| Abstract: | Due to an unprecedented rise in demand, in 2020 the Peruvian Ministry of Education implemented a centralized assignment mechanism that allowed thousands of students at various levels of education to move from the private to the public sector. In this paper, we empirically explore the determinants of accepting a public school assignment and, subsequently, remaining in the public system. Specifically, we exploit the randomness in the assignment of students to new public schools to causally estimate the influence of distance on the decision to accept a public school placement, and we explore its role in the decision to remain there. We also provide insights into various determinants of parental preferences. Our findings reveal that families care about distance from home to the assigned public school as well as the relative academic and peer quality with respect to their school of origin. Parents weigh these factors differently based on their familiarity with them. Consequently, experiencing a new school environment can alter the significance of specific attributes when it comes time to decide whether to stay at the assigned school. These findings offer valuable insights into how governments can strengthen the supply of public schooling. |
| Keywords: | Centralized Assignment Systems;private-public schooling;COVID-19;school choice |
| JEL: | A20 D12 D83 I28 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13353&r=ure |
| By: | Arthur Grimes (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research); Conal Smith (K?t?t? Insight); Kimberley O’Sullivan (University of Otago); Philippa Howden-Chapman (University of Otago); Lydia Le Gros (University of Otago); Rachel Kowalchuk Dohig (University of Otago) |
| Abstract: | The micro-geography of people’s wellbeing depends on house and neighbourhood characteristics. We show that the form of tenancy is also important. Identical people in identical settings may have different wellbeing outcomes depending on their security of housing tenure. Our findings utilise a survey administered to residents in public rental housing, private rentals and owner-occupiers in New Zealand, focusing on the capital city, Wellington. Despite selection effects which are likely to bias findings against higher wellbeing for public housing tenants, we find that public tenants have higher subjective wellbeing (WHO-5 and Life satisfaction) than do private tenants, and similar wellbeing to owner-occupiers. Length of tenure helps to explain wellbeing differences between public and private tenants, likely reflecting New Zealand law under which private renters have insecure tenure (relative to many overseas jurisdictions). We find also that wellbeing is associated with residents’ perceptions of house suitability and neighbourhood suitability. House suitability reflects house quality, condition, cold and dampness. Neighbourhood suitability reflects the importance of social capital and of living in a safe area. Some characteristics are more important for certain population groups than for others; hence analysts should be wary of generalising about relationships between microgeographic factors and wellbeing. |
| Keywords: | Public housing, tenant wellbeing, house quality, neighbourhood characteristics |
| JEL: | I31 I38 R23 R28 R38 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mtu:wpaper:23_08&r=ure |
| By: | Elacqua, Gregory; Kutscher, Macarena |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we aim to understand some of the mechanisms behind the low impact of a Chilean educational reform on socioeconomic integration within the school system. We focus on pre-kindergarden (pre-K) admissions, which account for the highest volume of applications since all students (except those applying to private schools) must seek admission through the centralized system. We employ a discrete choice model to analyze parents school preferences. Our analysis reveals that the school choices of low-SES families are more strongly influenced by a schools non-academic attributes which are often omitted from analyses of parental preferences due to data availability constraints rather than academic quality. For instance, low-SES parents tend to prefer schools with fewer reported violent incidents, schools where students report facing less discrimination and exclusion, and schools where students demonstrate higher levels of self-efficacy. Disadvantaged families also tend to favor schools that have a religious affiliation, offer more ”classical” sports (e.g. soccer), or have a foreign name. These results have significant implications for understanding the preferences of disadvantaged families and the impact of centralized admission systems on reducing segregation. By recognizing the non-academic factors driving school choices, policymakers can better design admission systems that truly foster school diversity and equality. |
| Keywords: | school choice;Centralized Assignment Systems;Segregation |
| JEL: | A20 D12 I24 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:13340&r=ure |
| By: | Glewwe, Paul (University of Minnesota); Li, Zhigang (Asian Development Bank); Loyalka, Prashant (Stanford University); Rahman, Khandker Wahedur (University of Oxford); Sharma , Uttam (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impact on children’s learning of one specific education technology (EdTech) intervention in Bangladesh: providing tablets with educational software, combined with private tutoring, to out-of-school students using a randomized control trial. The provision of tablets and tutors led to positive impacts on both the math and the Bangla language scores of out-of-school children, increasing math scores by approximately 0.25 standard deviations (SDs) of the distribution of test scores, and Bangla scores by approximately 0.17 SDs. The effects of the intervention were especially strong for girls compared to boys. Rural out-of-school children, but not urban out-of-school children or out-of-school children in urban slums, benefited greatly from the program. The program has little effect on noncognitive traits such as competence, self-esteem, and grit. These findings have broader implications for implementing programs targeted to out-of-school children and distance education during school closures, such as those caused by pandemics. |
| Keywords: | educational technology (EdTech); out of school child (OOSC); distance tutoring; teaching at the right level; foundational literacy and numeracy |
| JEL: | I21 I25 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2024–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0718&r=ure |
| By: | Darling, Wesley; Cassidy, Michal J. PhD |
| Abstract: | We explore how rail transit’s first- and last-mile issue might be addressed by partnering with transportation network companies (TNCs) like Uber and Lyft. The goal is to lure high-income commuters to shift from cars to TNCs and rail. We also explore how rail and TNC partnerships can improve travel for low-income commuters who currently rely on low-frequency bus service. We parametrically test subsidizing TNC fares for feeder services in the San Francisco Bay Area in an idealized fashion. Inputs such as the residents’ value of time and vehicle ownership were taken from various local data sources. The communities that were selected for our study are served to different degrees by the BART rail system. We found that the optimal policy must be tailored to the characteristics of the community it serves. In dense, walkable communities with strong bus service near rail stations, TNC subsidies should be targeted to less-accessible neighborhoods and low-income commuters to not compete with bus transit and active modes like walking. For lower-density communities with limited dedicated bus feeder service, TNC subsidization can be applied more broadly, although disincentives, like increasing rail parking fees, must be considered carefully, because they can induce commuters to drive directly to work instead. We conclude with a discussion of how subsidies might be covered by reallocating existing resources in different ways. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Ridesourcing, rail transit, first mile and last mile, user side subsidies, commuters, value of time, transportation equity |
| Date: | 2024–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt9937d817&r=ure |
| By: | Engdahl, Mattias (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Willis, Sébastien (Uppsala University and Uppsala Center for Labor Studies); Åslund, Olof (Uppsala University, IFAU, UCLS, CReAM, IZA.) |
| Abstract: | We study how professional networks are related to immigrant labour market integration. Matched employer-employee data for Sweden show that networks grow with time in the host country and that their composition changes from immigrant toward native network members. A firm-dyadic analysis of re-employment of displaced workers suggests that conational connections have a much larger positive effect than native connections. However, the employment effect of native connections grows with years since migration. Furthermore, native connections tend to be associated with higher earnings and increased hires in connected local industries. After 20 years in Sweden, the built-up connections raise immigrant re-employment rates by 0.7 to 1.1 percentage points, amounting to 10–20 percent of the observed difference by years since migration. Our findings indicate complete assimilation in the total productivity of professional connections for displaced workers. |
| Keywords: | labour market integration of immigrants; networks; job search |
| JEL: | J15 J20 J60 |
| Date: | 2024–03–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2024_009&r=ure |
| By: | Luis Ayala (Facultad de Derecho, UNED); Ana Herrero-Alcalde (Facultad de Derecho, UNED); Jorge Martinez-Vazquez (Economics Department, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University,); Carolina Navarro-Ruiz (Facultad de Derecho, UNED) |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to the existing literature on vertical externalities in fiscally decentralized settings by analyzing the impact of a quite unique experience in the vertical composition of welfare spending in a country. We study the reactions of subnational governmentsÕ spending in the transitioning from a context of complete decentralization of welfare benefits to another where a parallel central government program targeting the same population is implemented. Using data from Spanish regional and central welfare programs and the canonical model specification of multilevel government externalities, we find that regional governments reacted negatively to the introduction of the new central welfare benefits by significantly reducing their own welfare expenditures. However, this crowding-out effect is weaker in relatively richer regions and those headed by left-wing regional administrations. |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper2402&r=ure |
| By: | Yvonne Giesing; Björn Kauder; Lukas Mergele; Niklas Potrafke; Panu Poutvaara |
| Abstract: | We examine how cultural norms shape attitudes toward immigration. Our causal identification relies on comparing students who moved across the East-West border after German reunification with students who moved within former East Germany. Students who moved from East to West became more positive toward immigration. Results are confirmed among students whose move was plausibly exogenous due to national study place allocation mechanisms. Evidence supports horizontal transmission as the difference between East-West movers and East-East movers increases over time and is driven by East German students who often interacted with fellow students. Effects are stronger in less xenophobic West German regions. |
| Keywords: | cultural transmission, migration, attitudes toward immigration, German division and unification, political socialization |
| JEL: | D72 D91 J15 J20 P20 P51 Z10 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10985&r=ure |
| By: | Kevin A. Park (Fannie Mae); Liyi Liu (Freddie Mac); Robert Avery (Federal Housing Finance Agency); Lawrence Costa (Federal Housing Finance Agency) |
| Abstract: | Homeownership is often expressed as a simple static number. Most reports or studies are unable to track a homeowner over time and they cannot follow a person after a home is sold to see what happens next. We craft new and dynamic statistics based on first-time homebuyers (FTHBs) using a nationally representative panel. FTHBs tend to remain homeowners through time. Additionally, we follow them through the mortgage market to describe their experiences with subsequent mortgages, including other purchase mortgages and refinances. We provide statistics about three measures of homeownership “sustainability†: current homeownership, time until first exit from homeownership, and cumulative time since first purchase that individuals have remained owners. Across all three measures, we see that most homebuyers remain homeowners and the persistence has increased over time across all homeowner demographics like race or ethnicity, regions of the country, and mortgage lending submarkets. |
| Keywords: | NMDB, homeownership, mortgage, first-time homebuyer |
| JEL: | R21 G21 C80 D10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hfa:wpaper:24-02&r=ure |
| By: | Umut Özek |
| Abstract: | Public policies targeting individuals based on need often impose disproportionate burden on communities that lack the resources to implement these policies effectively. In an elementary school setting, I examine whether community-level interventions focusing on similar needs and providing resources to build capacity in these communities could improve outcomes by improving the effectiveness of individual-level interventions. I find that the extended school day policy that targets lowest-performing schools in reading in Florida significantly improved the effectiveness of the third-grade retention policy in these schools. These complementarities were large enough to close the gap in retention effects between targeted and higher-performing schools. |
| Keywords: | educational interventions, complementarities, disadvanted communities |
| JEL: | I20 I28 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10986&r=ure |
| By: | Vasily Astrov (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Vladislav L. Inozemtsev; Ambre Maucorps (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Roman Römisch (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | Chart of the Month Russian migration wave reaches Europe by Vasily Astrov Opinion Corner How should the EU treat arriving Russian migrants? by Vladislav Inozemtsev Since the start of the war in Ukraine, no fewer than 1 million people have left Russia – arguably the biggest wave of ethnic Russian emigration since the 1920s. European governments should treat this as an opportunity and should welcome most Russian migrants by offering them residence and work permits. Russians may constitute the most affluent and prosperous European diaspora, and that could benefit the host economies. The role of manufacturing in regional economic growth and convergence in the EU by Roman Römisch This article focuses on the role of the manufacturing sector in regional economic development in the EU. Its findings indicate that the development of the manufacturing sector has positive growth effects, independent of a region’s degree of urbanisation. This suggests that policies focused on industrialisation could foster regional growth and the convergence of less-developed regions. However, there are many obstacles to such policies. European integration? How borders (still) matter for the development of EU regions by Ambre Maucorps The ambition of the EU to become ‘an ever closer union among the peoples of Europe’ has been the main rationale for its far-reaching policy action towards economic, social and territorial cohesion. Yet EU border regions lag behind their so-called inner peers economically and socially, pointing up the persistent negative impact of country borders on regional growth, despite European integration efforts. Whereas in Western Europe this gap has generally been narrowing, in most of EU-CEE it is continuing to widen, sometimes significantly. This has important implications not only for the cross-border consolidation of the EU single market, but also for the EU enlargement process. Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe |
| Keywords: | Russian migration, first residence permits, remittances, labour market integration, political migrants, regional economic growth, convergence, manufacturing, mean logarithmic deviation index, border regions, inner regions, regional convergence |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:mpaper:mr:2023-09&r=ure |
| By: | Chen, Natalie (University of Warwick, CEPR and CESifo); Novy, Dennis (University of Warwick, CEPR, CEP/LSE and CESifo); Perroni, Carlo (University of Warwick and CEFiso); Chern Wong, Horng (Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | Using firm-level data from France, we document that the shift of economic activity from manufacturing to services over the last few decades has been urban-biased: structural change has been more pronounced in areas with higher population density. This bias can be accounted for by the location choices of large services firms that sort into big cities and large manufacturing firms that increasingly locate in suburban and rural areas. Motivated by these findings, we estimate a structural model of city formation with heterogeneous firms and international trade. We find that agglomeration economies have strengthened for services but weakened for manufacturing. This divergence is a key driver of the urban bias but it dampens aggregate structural change. Rising manufacturing productivity and falling international trade costs further contribute to the growth of large services firms in the densest urban areas, boosting services productivity and services exports, but also land prices. |
| Keywords: | Agglomeration, Cities, Export, Firm Sorting, Manufacturing, Productivity, Services, Trade Costs JEL Classification: F15, F61, R12, R14 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:694&r=ure |
| By: | Keisuke Kondo (Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry and Research Institute for Economics and Business Administration, Kobe University, JAPAN) |
| Abstract: | This study bridges the gap between the urban wage premium and human capital externalities. Merging the worker-level microdata with the geographical data in Mexico and taking the two-step approach of the Mincer wage equation, this study finds that the spatial sorting and human capital externalities entirely explain the urban wage premium in Mexico. This study finds heterogeneous effects of human capital externalities on wages between high- and low-skilled workers. Low-skilled workers benefit from human capital externalities, whereas high-skilled workers do not. Instead, high-skilled workers get more than twice as high private return to education anywhere they work as low-skilled workers. |
| Keywords: | Urban wage premium; Human capital externalities; Spatial sorting; Social returns to education |
| JEL: | J31 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2024-09&r=ure |
| By: | Darling, Wesley; Cassidy, Michael J. |
| Abstract: | Commuter rail is known to have a “first- and last-mile” problem (i.e., a lack of options for getting commuters to and from a rail station). The first- and last-mile dilemma creates inequalities in access. For example, high-income commuters drive to work (forgoing transit altogether), middle-income commuters drive to a rail station and pay to park, and low-income commuters rely on feeder buses or walking to reach a rail station. Transportation network companies (TNCs), like Uber and Lyft, are a viable option for connecting travelers to rail stations, especially for those who don’t own a car, however, their high fares make them attractive only to higher-income travelers. To close this equity gap, subsidies could be provided for TNC rides that connect travelers to commuter rail. To explore this concept further, we developed idealized (but physically realistic and rational) models to describe communities in the San Francisco Bay Area, and simulated the effects of various subsidization policies (i.e., providing subsidies for TNC rides to and from rail stations, increasing rail stations parking fees) using real-world data representative of Bay Area commuter populations. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2024–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt1nf4n76r&r=ure |
| By: | Andrés Rodríguez-Pose; Lewis Dijkstra; Hugo Poelman |
| Abstract: | While in recent times many regions have flourished, many others are stuck —or are at risk of becoming stuck— in a development trap. Such regions experience decline in economic growth, employment, and productivity relative to their neighbours and to their own past trajectories. Prolonged periods in development traps are leading to political dissatisfaction and unrest. Such discontent is often translated into support for anti-system parties at the ballot box. In this paper we study the link between the risk, intensity, and duration of regional development traps and the rise of discontent in the European Union (EU) —proxied by the support for Eurosceptic parties in national elections between 2013 and 2022— using an econometric analysis at a regional level. The results highlight the strong connection between being stuck in a development trap, often in middle- or high-income regions, and support for Eurosceptic parties. They also suggest that the longer the period of stagnation, the stronger the support for parties opposed to European integration. This relationship is also robust to considering only the most extreme Eurosceptic parties or to including parties that display more moderate levels of Euroscepticism. |
| Keywords: | discontent, Euroscepticism, development trap, economic growth, employment, productivity, regions, EU |
| JEL: | D72 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2405&r=ure |
| By: | Lee, Neil; Fransham, Mark; Bukowski, Pawel |
| Abstract: | Spatial inequality in economic outcomes is increasingly seen as a problem for national economies. This paper considers spatial inequality in the UK labour market, its causes, and potential policy solutions. Relative to other European countries, the UK is highly spatially uneven, but it is not as unequal as the United States. The most common explanations for growing spatial inequality are economic, in particular the linked processes of manufacturing decline, the rise in knowledge-based services, and London’s growth as an international service hub. However, these explanations ignore the importance of spatial labour market institutions on different local economies. In this paper we argue that labour market institutions are one of the key missing explanations for the changing patterns of spatial inequality in the UK, and that the impact of labour market policy is likely to dwarf the limited funding provided for local economic development policy. We conclude with some suggestions for how policy might better address spatial labour market inequality in the UK and start to create good jobs across the country. |
| Keywords: | public policy; labour markets; inequality; regions; ES/V013548/1 |
| JEL: | J08 N90 R00 |
| Date: | 2024–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122224&r=ure |
| By: | Gabriele Lucchetti; Alessandro Ruggieri |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how aggregate labor market conditions affect the intra-generational assimilation of immigrants in the hosting country. Using data from the American Community Survey, we leverage variation in the national unemployment rates in the U.S. at the time of arrival of different cohorts of immigrants to identify short- and long-run effects of recessions on their careers. We document that immigrants who enter the U.S. when the labor market is slack face large and persistent earnings reductions: a 1 p.p. rise in the unemployment rate at the time of migration reduces annual earnings by 4.9 percent on impact and 0.7 percent after 12 years since migration, relative to the average U.S. native. Change in the employment composition across occupations with different skill contents is the key driver: were occupational attainment during periods of high unemployment unchanged for immigrants, assimilation in annual earnings would slow down on average by only 3 years, instead of 12. Slower assimilation costs between 1.7 and 2.4 percent of lifetime earnings to immigrants entering the U.S. labor market when unemployment is high. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notgep:2023-09&r=ure |
| By: | Eiglsperger, Martin; Ganoulis, Ioannis; Goldhammer, Bernhard; Kouvavas, Omiros; Roma, Moreno; Vlad, Aurelian |
| Abstract: | The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) currently only includes rentals for housing (paid by tenants) and auxiliary housing expenditures (paid by both tenants and owners). The inclusion of an item for owner-occupied housing (OOH) would be desirable for both representativeness and cross-country comparability. This paper reviews the potential options for including OOH in the HICP to derive a new inflation index. We discuss the conceptual and measurement issues involved. Additionally, we present our analytical calculations on the impact and economic properties of this index as compared to the HICP. We show that since 2011 the estimated impact of including OOH in HICP annual inflation, based on either the “net acquisition” approach or the “rental equivalence” approach, would have been within a band of between -1.2 and +0.4 percentage points. The net acquisition approach could result in bigger differences in future, should the fluctuations in the housing market cycles in the euro area be more pronounced and synchronised. The results should be interpreted keeping in mind that the period of observation is relatively short in relation to housing market cycles. In general, the empirical evidence suggests that including OOH based on the rental equivalence approach decreases the cyclicality of the new inflation index, while the net acquisition approach implies a small amplification of its cyclical properties compared to the HICP. JEL Classification: C43, E31, E51 |
| Keywords: | euro area, inflation, owner-occupied housing |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbsps:202447&r=ure |
| By: | Bruno Conte |
| Abstract: | How will future climate change affect rural economies like sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in terms of migration and welfare losses? How can policy enhance SSA’s capacity to adapt to this process? I answer these questions with a quantitative framework that, coupled with rich spatial data and forecasts for the future, estimates millions of climate migrants and sizeable and unequal welfare losses in SSA. Investigating migration and trade policies as mitigating tools, I find a tradeoff associated with the former: reducing SSA migration barriers to the European Union (EU) standards eliminates aggregate welfare losses at the cost of more climate migration and high regional inequality. Reducing tariffs to the EU levels attenuates this cost. |
| Keywords: | climate change, migration, economic geography |
| JEL: | O15 Q54 R12 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1880&r=ure |
| By: | Terhi Maczulskij; Ohto Kanninen; Hannu Karhunen; Ossi Tahvonen |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the impact of involuntary job loss on severe debt problems in Finland, where up to 50% of income may be subject to wage garnishment for 25 years. We use linked employer-employee data combined with unique administrative records covering debt enforcements from 2007 to 2018. Our event study analysis uncovers a robust and persistent impact of job loss, characterized by plant closures and mass layoffs, on debt-related challenges. Specifically, displaced workers have a 5% higher likelihood of enforced debts in the year of displacement compared to the control group. This effect increases, peaking at 16% four years post-displacement and maintaining a substantial level of roughly 10% nine years afterwards. Effects are particularly large for unpaid taxes, penal orders and fines, while job loss demonstrates only a modest impact on unpaid social or healthcare payments and alimonies. Moreover, these effects are more profound among males, less educated, and individuals already burdened with excessive debt, such as mortgages, prior to displacement. |
| Keywords: | anonymous applications, discrimination, employment |
| JEL: | D14 G51 J64 J65 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pst:wpaper:339&r=ure |
| By: | Ohto Kanninen; Hannu Karhunen; Jeremias Nieminen |
| Abstract: | We exploit admission cutoffs to secondary schools to study the effects of general academically oriented, versus vocational secondary schooling on cognitive and non-cognitive skills using a regression discontinuity design. We measure these skills using the Finnish Defence Forces Basic Skills Test that due to compulsory military service covers the vast majority of Finnish men and is a strong predictor of later labor market success. We find that large differences in average skills across students that differ in their schooling when entering military service are due to selection rather than causal effects of secondary schooling on either cognitive or non-cognitive skills. |
| Keywords: | public employment services, cost-shifting, fiscal federalism, decentralization |
| JEL: | H11 H75 J48 J64 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pst:wpaper:337&r=ure |
| By: | Fanyu Liu (Tulane University); Kerui Geng (Tulane University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of health insurance subsidies on the financial investments of low-income households. Specifically, we estimate the impact of Affordable Care Act (ACA) health insurance exchange (Marketplace) subsidies on mortgage applications and originations using comprehensive mortgage application record data. We use a difference-in-differences approach that exploits variation in county health insurance coverage rates at the time of reform. We find that the subsidies increased the amount of residential mortgages applied for by low-income households and the amount actually originated by financial institutions. To explore potential mechanisms, we use survey data and find that these subsidies increased low-income households' health insurance coverage rates, reduced large-scale household medical expenditures and mortgage delinquency rates. These findings highlight an aspect of the broader economic impact of the ACA health insurance subsidies beyond increasing coverage rates among the targeted group. |
| Keywords: | Residential Mortgage, ACA Marketplace, Health Insurance |
| JEL: | I13 R31 G21 I18 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tul:wpaper:2406&r=ure |
| By: | Rodier, Caroline PhD; Tovar, Angelly J.; Fuller, Sam; D'Agostino, Mollie C.; Harold, Brian S. |
| Abstract: | A lack of reliable and affordable transportation exacerbates socioeconomic inequities for low-income individuals, especially people of color. Universal Basic Mobility (UBM) pilots or programs are a relatively new approach to addressing financial barriers to travel among the transport-disadvantaged. UBMs provide individuals with funds for various mobilityoptions, including transit and shared modes. This study reviews the UBM programs and pilots implemented in the United States. It also reviews international applications of Mobility as a Service (MaaS) platforms. These platforms may reduce the administrative cost of implementing UBMs and help users identify and compare available travel options. In addition, the review describes critical program design tradeoffs to consider when developing a UBM program or pilot. Finally, key UBM elements and lessons learned are summarized to assist other communities considering UBMs. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Universal Basic Mobility, Mobility as a Service, transportation disadvantaged persons, transportation equity, pilot studies, user side subsidies |
| Date: | 2024–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9q08w58z&r=ure |
| By: | Lange, Martin; Schmidt, Alexander |
| Abstract: | This study analyses the impact of a high-profile crime event on perceived public safety. At the 2015 New Year's Eve celebrations in Cologne (NYE), Germany, refugees allegedly committed over a thousand crimes, ranging from theft to sexual assault. The widespread media coverage of these incidents made a shift in the public's perceived safety plausible. We empirically analyze this proposition using a difference-in-differences strategy. Using the European Social Survey, we estimate the differential response of German respondents to those of other European countries in terms of perceived safety after NYE. We find that Germans feel less safe after the NYE incidents. Women and individuals leaning toward the political right are affected the most. An analysis of search queries suggests that the loss of perceived safety may also translate into changed behavior, indicated by a higher demand for defense goods. |
| Keywords: | Crime, Perceived Safety, Immigration, Refugees |
| JEL: | J15 K42 Z13 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:283590&r=ure |
| By: | Nelson, Clare; Rowangould, Gregory |
| Abstract: | In the United States, mileage fees, or road user charges, are being explored as an alternative to motor fuel taxes, often called “gas taxes.” The search for alternatives is motivated by rising fuel efficiency standards and the increasing number of electric vehicles on the road. These factors have diminished the revenue-generating capacity of gas taxes. While mileage fees are a more stable and fuel-agnostic transportation funding source, they face criticism and low levels of public support due to concerns about costs, protection of drivers’ location and privacy, and perceptions that they would raise taxes on low-income and rural households. Researchers from the University of Vermont Transportation Research Center used data from over 360, 000 Vermont vehicles to assess the financial and equity impacts of replacing the Vermont state gas tax with a revenue-neutral mileage fee of 1.5 cents per mile. The researchers then surveyed 623 car drivers in northern New England and 2, 114 drivers around the US, before and after offering them an educational experience about mileage fees. The educational experience included videos and quiz-style questions. It covered reasons for a switch to mileage fees, fairness across income and community types, and a personalized cost comparison between the gas tax and mileage fee, based on each respondent’s vehicle and travel information. This brief summarizes the findings from that research and provides implications for the field. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Mileage fees, gas tax, transportation funding, information choice questionnaire, equity, education |
| Date: | 2024–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt88k6z1zq&r=ure |
| By: | David Knapp (University of Southern California); Francisco Perez-Arce (University of Southern California) |
| Abstract: | Imperfect knowledge of public programs influences use and can lead to suboptimal decisions. We quantify significant disparities in Social Security program knowledge across race and ethnic groups. Differences in knowledge are not explained by differences in income, wealth, employment history, or educational achievement. We find evidence that there are racial/ethnic differences between perceived and actual knowledge of Social Security programs as well as differences in financial literacy, an important component of retirement planning. To identify mechanisms for alleviating these disparities, we investigate how knowledge relates to information sources about Social Security across race and ethnic groups. We find that Black and Hispanic respondents, on average, have fewer information sources. This gap corresponds to a difference in the ability to collect information from friends and family. Additional sources of information predict knowledge scores, even after accounting for confounders. The impact of racial and ethnic disparities in Social Security knowledge on post-claiming outcomes remains unclear. We present some suggestive evidence from retirement beneficiaries of a relationship between knowledge differences and subjective perceptions about the benefit claiming decision. Understanding causal mechanisms connecting racial and ethnic disparities in knowledge and outcomes likely requires an experimental design. |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrr:papers:wp449&r=ure |
| By: | Katherine Carman (RAND); Samer Atshan (RAND); Jhacova Williams (American University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we develop a new survey that seeks to better understand how differences in information sources (both formal and informal) across racial and ethnic groups contribute to knowledge and planning for retirement. We consider several scenarios where people might be eligible for Social Security benefits in times of need and seek to understand where individuals turn for information in these scenarios. Overall, we find that there are a wide variety of information sources that people approach in these times. Notably, different racial and ethnic groups expect to make use of different information sources. Furthermore, knowledge is associated with where people turn for information. To address disparities in knowledge, information campaigns could consider differentiating channels of information to better engaged less well-informed groups. This research doesn’t identify a single information source that would reach all people. |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrr:papers:wp458&r=ure |
| By: | Fabian Dvorak; Urs Fischbacher |
| Abstract: | Despite strong evidence for peer effects, little is known about how individuals balance intrinsic preferences and social learning in different choice environments. Using a combination of experiments and discrete choice modeling, we show that intrinsic preferences and social learning jointly influence participants' decisions, but their relative importance varies across choice tasks and environments. Intrinsic preferences guide participants' decisions in a subjective choice task, while social learning determines participants' decisions in a task with an objectively correct solution. A choice environment in which people expect to be rewarded for their choices reinforces the influence of intrinsic preferences, whereas an environment in which people expect to be punished for their choices reinforces conformist social learning. We use simulations to discuss the implications of these findings for the polarization of behavior. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.18452&r=ure |
| By: | Cesarini, David (New York University); Lindqvist, Erik (Swedish Institute for Social Research, Stockholm University); Östling, Robert (Stockholm School of Economics); Schroeder, Christofer (European Central Bank) |
| Abstract: | There is a well-established negative gradient between economic status and crime, but its underlying causal mechanisms are not well understood. We use data on four Swedish lotteries matched to data on criminal convictions to gauge the causal effect of financial windfalls on player`s own crime and their children`s delinquency. We estimate a positive but statistically insignificant effect of lottery wealth on players`own conviction risk. Our estimates allows us to rule out effects one fifth as large as the cross-sectional gradient between income and crime. We also estimate a less precise null effect of parental lottery wealth on child delinquency. |
| Keywords: | economics of crime; juvenile crime; income and wealth inequality |
| JEL: | J13 K42 |
| Date: | 2023–11–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sofiwp:2023_016&r=ure |
| By: | Fuchs, Michaela (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Jost, Ramona (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Weyh, Antje (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany) |
| Abstract: | "In the year 2017, women needed an average of 11.6 minutes to commute from their place of residence to their place of work, whereas men needed an average of 13.4 minutes. Based on detailed geo-referenced data, we discuss selected dimensions underlying gender-specific differences in commuting behaviour. They cover socio-demographic characteristics, occupations, wages, and commuting patterns between and within urban and rural areas." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Bundesrepublik Deutschland ; IAB-Open-Access-Publikation ; Auswirkungen ; Berufsgruppe ; Einkommenseffekte ; erwerbstätige Frauen ; erwerbstätige Männer ; IAB-Beschäftigtenhistorik ; ländlicher Raum ; Lohnhöhe ; Pendler ; regionale Mobilität ; Stadt ; Zeitverwendung ; Arbeitsweg ; 2000-2017 |
| Date: | 2024–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabkbe:202404&r=ure |
| By: | César Huaroto; Francisco Gallego |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the persistent effect on social unrest of the Mining Mita- a colonial forced labor and migration institution that affected indigenous communities in Peru between 1573 to 1811. Using a geographical regression discontinuity design for identification, we provide causal evidence that Mita areas have experienced higher levels of social unrest since the end of the 18th century. We present a simple conceptual rationale with historical and causal evidence indicating that at least part of the roots of such persistence is cultural. Specifically, people living in Mita districts identify more with the indigenous groups and indigenous institutions, are more likely to speak native languages, are less likely to migrate, and have different beliefs about development and democracy. |
| JEL: | D74 I38 J15 N26 O10 O43 P14 Z10 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ioe:doctra:568&r=ure |
| By: | Florencia Jaccoud; Fabien Petit; Tommaso Ciarli; Maria Savona |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the labor market implications of investment in automation over the life cycle of ICT and robot technologies from 1995 to 2017 in 163 European regions. We first identify major technological breakthroughs during this period for these automation technologies and identify the phases of acceleration and deceleration in investment. We then examine how exposure to these automation technologies affects employment and wages across these different phases of their life cycle. We find that the negligible long term impact of automation on employment conceals significant short term positive and negative effects within phases of the technology life cycle. We also find that the negative impact of ICT investment on employment is driven by the phase of the cycle when investment decelerates (and the technology is more mature). The phases of the technology life cycles are more relevant than differences in regions’ structural characteristics, such as productivity and sector specialization in explaining the impact of automation on regional employment. |
| Keywords: | automation, technology life cycle, employment, wages, ICT, robot |
| JEL: | J21 O33 J31 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10987&r=ure |
| By: | Dariel, Aurelie (New York University, Abu Dhabi); Ham, John C. (New York University, Abu Dhabi); Nikiforakis, Nikos (New York University, Abu Dhabi); Stoop, Jan (Erasmus University Rotterdam) |
| Abstract: | There are pronounced racial, ethnic, and gender gaps in income in the U.S. We investigate whether these correspond with differences in competitiveness, risk tolerance, and confidence relative to performance in a large, stratified sample of the U.S. prime-age population. We find substantial differences in all three traits across Black, Hispanic, and White males and females. These traits predict individual income. Competitiveness and risk tolerance help explain the White gender income gap. Competitiveness also affects the Black-White income gap between men. Confidence about one's performance helps explain a substantial and significant portion of all five race-gender income gaps with White men. |
| Keywords: | racial/gender income gaps, overconfidence, competitiveness, risk tolerance |
| JEL: | C90 D03 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16818&r=ure |
| By: | Jennifer De la Cruz (Departamento de Economía de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.) |
| Abstract: | Empirical studies suggest that credit constraints prevent the development of Micro and Small Enterprises (MSEs). This study contributes to the analysis by exploring whether higher regional financial development affects the creation and growth of MSEs in Peru. Based on four cross-sectional databases, mainly the 2018 National Household Survey on Living Conditions and Poverty, this paper finds that there is a positive impact on entrepreneur profits; however, the effect is negative on the likelihood of running a business. Interactions between informality and financial frictions may explain this result. Informal financing emerges as an alternative in this context. This study addresses endogeneity issues by using the number of commercial bank branches per 1, 000 inhabitants in 1995 as an instrument of the degree of regional financial development in 2018. JEL Classification-JE: G20, O16, R11. |
| Keywords: | Financial Development, Micro and Small Enterprises, Informal Finance, Instrumental Variables. |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00532&r=ure |
| By: | Cai, Xiaoming (Peking University); Gautier, Pieter A. (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Wolthoff, Ronald P. (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | This paper considers a random search model where some locations provide sellers with better chances of meeting many buyers than other locations (for example popular shopping streets or the first page of a search engine). When sellers are heterogeneous in terms of the quality of their product and/or the probability that a given buyer likes their product, it is desirable that sellers of high-quality niche products sort into the best locations. We show that this does not always happen in a decentralized market. Finally, we allow for endogenous location distributions and show that more trades are realized when locations are similar (in which case the aggregate matching function is urn-ball) but that quality weighted trade can be higher when locations are heterogeneous. |
| Keywords: | search frictions, spatial equilibrium, sorting |
| JEL: | C78 D44 D83 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16824&r=ure |
| By: | Ekaterina Prytkova (Côte d’Azur University and University of Sussex); Fabien Petit (Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, UCL); Deyu Li (Utrecht University); Sugat Chaturvedi (Ahmedabad University); Tommaso Ciarli (United Nations University, UNU-MERIT and University of Sussex, SPRU) |
| Abstract: | This paper measures the exposure of industries and occupations to 40 digital technologies that emerged over the past decade and estimates their impact on European employment. Using a novel approach that leverages sentence transformers, we calculate exposure scores based on the semantic similarity between patents and ISCO-08/NACERev.2 classifications to construct an open–access database, `TechXposure'. By combining our data with a shift–share approach, we instrument the regional exposure to emerging digital technologies to estimate their employment impact across European regions. We find an overall positive effect of emerging digital technologies on employment, with a one-standard deviation increase in regional exposure leading to a 1.069 percentage point increase in the employment-to-population ratio. However, upon examining the individual effects of these technologies, we find that smart agriculture, the internet of things, industrial and mobile robots, digital advertising, mobile payment, electronic messaging, cloud storage, social network technologies, and machine learning negatively impact regional employment. |
| Keywords: | Occupation Exposure; Industry Exposure; Text as Data; Natural Language Processing; Sentence Transformers; Emerging Digital Technologies; Automation; Employment |
| JEL: | C81 O31 O33 O34 J24 O52 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucl:cepeow:24-01&r=ure |
| By: | Takahiro Akita (IUJ Research Institute, International University of Japan) |
| Abstract: | Using decomposable inequality measures, this study presents quantitatively the inverted U-shaped pattern of income inequality that emerges during a population shift from the low-income rural to the high-income urban sector (Kuznets process of urbanization). It investigates the effects of changes in the urban-rural income ratio and within-sector inequalities on the Kuznets process of urbanization. This study also examines urbanization and expenditure inequality in Indonesia using household-level data for 1996-2018. Our analysis reveals that if the urban-rural income ratio is relatively small while the urban-rural difference in income inequality is relatively large, then overall income inequality is likely to increase for a longer period of time as urbanization proceeds. Conversely, if the urban-rural income ratio is relatively large while the urban-rural difference in income inequality is relatively small, then overall income inequality is likely to peak at earlier stages of urbanization. Our analysis also reveals that the contribution of urban inequality to overall income inequality tends to increase as urbanization proceeds, though there may be some fluctuations due to changes in within- and between-sector inequalities. In Indonesia, the share of urban households has risen gradually from 36% to 55%. However, no systematic relationship is observed between the share of urban households and overall expenditure inequality, meaning that Indonesia fs household-level data does not support the Kuznets inverted-U hypothesis. However, Indonesia fs household-level data shows that urbanization has been associated with a rising contribution of urban inequality and a declining contribution of between-sector inequality. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: urbanization, income inequality, Kuznets process of urbanization, decomposition of the Theil indices, household survey, Indonesia |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2024_01&r=ure |
| By: | Toossi, Saied |
| Abstract: | School meals are typically served to children for free, at a reduced price, or at full price, depending on their household’s income. In response to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, the U.S. Department of Agriculture issued a waiver allowing schools to provide meals for free to all students regardless of household income in the 2020–21 and 2021–22 school years. This waiver expired on June 30, 2022, leading some advocates and policymakers to express concern that the reintroduction of prices for school meals could make it difficult for some households to meet their other expenses. However, it is unclear whether having to pay for school meals makes it difficult for households to meet their other spending needs. Using new data from the Household Pulse Survey, this economic brief finds that overall, nearly one-third of households with children aged 5–17 that paid for school meals in December 2022 reported that doing so made it difficult for them to pay for other usual expenses. The share reporting the same among households with children aged 5–17 and incomes below 225 percent of the Federal poverty level, and among non-White households with children aged 5–17, was higher than the overall share. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Consumer/Household Economics, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uerseb:340805&r=ure |
| By: | Pietro Bomprezzi; Axel Dreher; Andreas Fuchs; Teresa Hailer; Andreas Kammerlander; Lennart Kaplan; Silvia Marchesi; Tania Masi; Charlotte Robert; Kerstin Unfried |
| Abstract: | We investigate the informal influence of political leaders’ spouses on the subnational allocation of foreign aid. Building new worldwide datasets on personal characteristics of political leaders and their spouses as well as on geocoded development aid projects (including new data on 19 Western donors), we examine whether those regions within recipient countries that include the birthplace of leaders’ spouses attract more aid during their partners’ time in office. Our findings for the 1990–2020 period suggest that regions including the birthplaces of political leaders’ spouses receive substantially more aid from European donors, the United States, and China. We find that more aid goes to spousal regions prior to elections and that developmental outcomes deteriorate rather than improve as a consequence. For Western aid but not for China, these results stand in some contrast to those for leader regions themselves. This suggests that aid from Western donors is directed from serving obvious political motives to promoting more hidden ones. |
| Keywords: | informal influence, ODA, favouritism, birth regions, development, political economy |
| JEL: | D72 F35 O19 O47 P33 R11 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10969&r=ure |
| By: | Hu, Bowei (University of California, Los Angeles) |
| Abstract: | Racial minorities, often sidelined by traditional financial systems, are a primary demographic for alternative financial services (AFS). While promoting financial inclusion is seen as a way to address racial disparities in the use of AFS, this claim is often complicated by selection and post-treatment biases. Drawing on data from the National Survey of Unbanked and Underbanked Households (2015–2019) with over one hundred thousand households and adopting causal decomposition analysis, this study investigates the effect of bank account ownership on racial disparities in three AFS channels: payday lending, pawn shop loans, and check cashing. Results confirm that Black and Hispanic households are more inclined to use these AFS compared to their White counterparts. Notably, the results uncover a distinct impact of hypothetically increased bank account ownership for unbanked households. While it decreases the reliance on nonbank check cashing among banked racial minority households, it paradoxically escalates payday loan usage within Black households when they become banked. These results suggest that while expanding bank account ownership can reduce certain AFS dependencies, it inadvertently perpetuates a form of exclusive inclusion that leads more financially included Black households to opt for payday loans. |
| Date: | 2024–03–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:mcew5&r=ure |
| By: | John Sabelhaus (Brookings Institution, University of Michigan) |
| Abstract: | The large and persistent gap by race in U.S. household wealth is a well-established empirical fact, though the causal mechanisms for wealth differentials are still a subject of much debate. Previous research on wealth inequality has shown that expanding the concept of wealth to include Social Security reduces overall wealth inequality (Sabelhaus and Volz, 2022a). These two observations motivate the questions and empirical approach in this study. Focusing on individuals born between 1936 and 1965 and observed at ages 51 to 56 in two household data sets, I first study wealth ratios and wealth rankings by race using conventional household wealth measures, and then study the implications of expanding the wealth measure to include Social Security. In the wealth measures excluding Social Security there is 23 percentage-point average wealth rank gap between Black and White individuals, and that falls to 13 percentage points after controlling earnings and other observables. Adding Social Security reduces racial wealth gaps, but also draws our attention to the fact that resolving expected Social Security funding shortfalls could have first order implications for wealth inequality and the racial wealth gap. Adding Social Security does not impact wealth rank gaps by race, however, which reinforces the need for further research on differences in wealth accumulation dynamics. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrr:papers:wp459&r=ure |
| By: | Jiri Gregor |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the calibration of borrower-based measures using a semi-structural modelling framework and defines two approaches to the setting of these measures. The first approach takes into account the magnitude of losses in the mortgage portfolio and the associated absorption potential of banks, while the second, preferred approach, considers both the benefits of regulation in terms of loss reduction and its costs manifested as foregone profits. This approach thus facilitates the optimization of the macroprudential strategy to minimize Type I error (no regulation) and Type II error (excessive regulation). The case of the Czech Republic serves as an illustrative example, demonstrating that borrower-based regulation appears unnecessary and costly during periods of low credit growth, specifically in the downward phase of the credit cycle. However, if any regulation is preferred with respect to other factors and circumstances that are not captured by the modelling framework, a purely loan-to-value regulation shows the best results in terms of cost-benefit analysis. |
| Keywords: | Borrower-based measures, macroprudential policy, mortgage lending, stress testing, systematic risk |
| JEL: | C63 E58 G21 G28 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2024/2&r=ure |
| By: | Mary Di Santolo (UMR LEDa, DIAL, PSL, Université Paris Dauphine, IRD); Isabelle Guérin (IRD, CESSMA (Paris, France), IFP (Pondicherry, India)); Sébastien Michiels (IFP (Pondicherry, India)); Cécile Mouchel (CESSMA (IRD, INALCO, and Université Paris Cité), UMR LEDa, DIAL, PSL, Université Paris Dauphine, IRD); Arnaud Natal (BSE (University of Bordeaux, CNRS, and INRAE), French Institute of Pondicherry (IFP)); Christophe Jalil Nordman (IRD, UMR LEDa, DIAL, PSL, Université Paris Dauphine, IFP (Pondicherry, India)); Govindan Venkatasubramanian (IFP (Pondicherry, India)) |
| Abstract: | Indian society has been experiencing significant changes since the nineties brought by a gradual set of reforms in favour of a market economy and the country’s integration into the global economy. However, despite outstanding economic growth for the last decades, India continues to be gripped by strong inequalities and the burden of social institutions such as caste, family or gender. Regarding the time pace of such changes, longitudinal studies appear to be particularly useful and revealing in analysing the extent of socio-economic dynamics. This paper aims to propose a new longitudinal data collection tool and a broad picture of socio-economic dynamics in rural areas of Tamil Nadu for the last decade. Data have been collected using the NEEMSIS survey. It is focused on more than 600 households from 10 villages in Tamil Nadu at three points in time; 2010, 2016-17 and 2020-21. The NEEMSIS survey encompass key topics including employment, indebtedness, agriculture, wealth, formation of skills, social networks, or social and spatial mobilities. |
| Keywords: | Panel data, household survey, caste, Tamil Nadu, labour, debt, gender, migration. |
| JEL: | C81 C83 D1 O1 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt202402&r=ure |
| By: | Brian Gill |
| Abstract: | Educational accountability for schools based on their performance of their students has been a core element of federal policy since the passage of the federal No Child Left Behind Act (NCLB) two decades ago. |
| Keywords: | educational accountability, student performance, education |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:b91e2c4f8c6a4df6a44d752b47d8ef5a&r=ure |
| By: | Baraldi, Anna Laura; Cantabene, Claudia; De Iudicibus, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | It is well documented that organized crime heavily affects the waste management system. This paper focuses on examining the impact of Law 164/1991, one of Italy’s most stringent measures against organized crime. The law, designed to counteract suspected mafia infiltration by mandating the dissolution of city councils, is investigated for its role in reinstating a more efficient waste management system. This involves an increase in selective waste collection for recycling purposes. We exploit the staggered enforcement of Law 164/1991 to show that both the percentage and the per-capita tonnes in selective waste collection, measured for municipalities in Apulia, Calabria, Campania and Sicily, increase sharply starting from the first election after compulsory administration in dissolved municipalities compared to the control group of those never dissolved; the average treatment effect of the anti-mafia policy is measured in a 5 percentage points and 17.5 Kg increase in the percentage and in per-capita tonnes of selective waste collection, respectively. This outcome is influenced by the city council dismissal, as it severs the connections between organized crime and local politicians. The resulting refreshed pool of elected officials, characterized by lower levels of corruption, then implements policies that are unfavorable to organized crime. This leads to a more effective allocation of public funds in sectors specifically targeted by organized crime, such as waste management. |
| Keywords: | Selective waste collection, Anti-mafia policies, Staggered Diff-in-diff, Corruption |
| JEL: | C2 D73 D78 I38 K42 Q53 |
| Date: | 2023–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120296&r=ure |
| By: | Alfano, Maria Rosaria; Cantabene, Claudia; de Iudicibus, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | Over the past decade, Italy has enacted a variety of measures to combat organized crime. White lists of legitimate businesses, established within each Italian prefecture, are a strategic tool to thwart mafia encroachment in the sectors most susceptible to infiltration. By replacing anti-mafia documentation, this mechanism fosters trust in the legality of enterprises among potential clients, suppliers, and financial institutions. Drawing on an extensive firm-level dataset, we employ a comprehensive, generalized difference-in-differences design to investigate the consequences of such certification on firms’ access to credit and their profitability. Our findings indicate that this certification engenders tangible positive effects on firms’ performance, manifested in improved credit access and enhanced profitability. Notably, the impact on banking obligations is particularly pronounced in regions where organized crime is more prevalent, such as the Southern regions of Italy. Conversely, the effect on profitability appears to be more accentuated in the North. These effects are more pronounced for firms that maintain certification over multiple years. |
| Keywords: | White List, Organized crime, Certification, Reputation, DID |
| JEL: | C21 H40 H81 R38 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120306&r=ure |
| By: | Yoko Ibuka (Faculty of Economics, Keio University & Department of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa); Junya Hamaaki (Faculty of Economics, Hosei University) |
| Abstract: | Studies suggest that mortality increases after income receipt. To examine whether the adverse effect of income on health is induced by economic activities and how certain economic activities are related to specific health conditions, we investigate within-month cycles in ambulance transport, utilizing detailed information on the locations of the origin and timing of the transports. Our analysis exploits the difference in the number of patients on the same day between payment and non-payment months, using the Japanese National Pension for the elderly that is distributed bi- monthly. We observe a 4.5% increase in ambulance transports on the day of pension payment, primarily attributed to heightened economic activities such as gambling or amusement, shopping, and dining out. We have suggestive evidence indicating that this increase in transport is linked to a relaxation in liquidity. These findings have implications for healthcare system preparedness and the optimal design of public benefit payment. |
| Keywords: | Emergency Medical Services, Social Security Payment, Time Stamp, Excess Sensitivity |
| JEL: | H55 H75 I12 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hai:wpaper:202401&r=ure |
| By: | Emilio Depetris-Chauvin; Ömer Özak |
| Abstract: | We explore the effect of historical ethnic borders on contemporary conflict in Africa. We document that both the intensive and extensive margins of contemporary conflict are higher close to historical ethnic borders. Exploiting variations across artificial regions within an ethnicity’s historical homeland and a theory-based instrumental variable approach, we find that regions crossed by historical ethnic borders have 27 percentage points higher probability of conflict and 7.9 percentage points higher probability of being the initial location of a conflict. We uncover several key underlying mechanisms: competition for agricultural land, population pressure, cultural similarity, and weak property rights. |
| Keywords: | Borders, Conflict, Territory, Property Rights, Landownership, Population Pressure, Migration, Historical Homelands, Development, Africa, Voronoi Tessellation, Thiessen Tessellation |
| JEL: | D74 N57 O13 O17 O43 P48 Q15 Q34 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ioe:doctra:573&r=ure |
| By: | OECD; UNU-CPR |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of mobilising political will in establishing the conditions necessary for economic and social inclusion of refugees, internally displaced persons, and formerly displaced persons who achieve durable solutions such as voluntary return. It investigates the role and conditions to mobilise political will for more comprehensive and inclusive policies that can lead to long-term local development in contexts of forced displacement in low- and middle-income countries (LICs and MICs). Case studies from Bangladesh, Cameroon, Ecuador, Iraq and Lebanon illustrate the ways in which political will, or its absence, can shape the approach to supporting the forcibly displaced and hosting communities. The paper also proposes a conceptual model for mobilising political will to facilitate sustainable development support in contexts of forced displacement. |
| Keywords: | development co-operation, development effectiveness, development planning, forced displacement, internal displacement, refugees, social and economic inclusion |
| JEL: | F35 F5 J15 O2 O19 |
| Date: | 2024–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:dcdaab:53-en&r=ure |
| By: | Rachel Scarfe; Daniel Schaefer; Thomas Sulka |
| Abstract: | We examine who bears the costs of mandated workplace pension programs, exploiting the quasi-experimental rollout of automatic enrollment in the UK. Total compensation (take-home pay plus employer contributions) increases, driven by employer contributions, while the amount of take-home pay decreases. These effects differ by employer size, with take-home pay declining to an extent in the largest firms that we can rule out a pass-through to employees of more than 47%, significantly less than in smaller firms. Our findings provide the first evidence that large employers shift the cost of mandated automatic enrollment onto employees. |
| Keywords: | Employer-sponsored retirement savings; Incentive design; Mandated benefits; Staggered difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | D21 H22 J32 J38 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jku:econwp:2024-02&r=ure |
| By: | Racek, Daniel; Thurner, Paul; Kauermann, Goeran |
| Abstract: | Political armed conflict is responsible for thousands of fatalities every year. Facilitated by advancements in conflict event databases, research studies have moved towards predicting conflict and understanding its determinants subnationally. However, existing statistical and predictive models do not (fully) account for the diffusion and thus dependence of armed conflict across both time and space. As a result, predictive performance deteriorates, and predictors of interest are potentially biased. To address these shortcomings, this paper introduces a statistical regression model that captures both the spatial as well as temporal dimension of conflict diffusion, while its effects remain fully interpretable. Using conflict data from Africa, we demonstrate the importance of accounting for conflict diffusion and quantify its effects. We observe that conflict exhibits relevant dependence up to a distance of 522.5 km. Studying more complex diffusion patterns, we find that conflict tends to originate in high population areas and from there diffuses to lower population areas. |
| Date: | 2024–03–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:q59dr&r=ure |