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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Quentin Lepetit (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Vincent Viguié (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Charlotte Liotta (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, TU - Technical University of Berlin / Technische Universität Berlin) |
| Abstract: | This work presents a gridded dataset on real estate and transportation in 192 worldwide urban areas, obtained from the Google Maps API and the web scraping of real estate websites. For each city of the sample, these data have been associated with the corresponding population density and land cover data, extracted from the GHS POP and ESA CCI data respectively, and aggregated on a 1 km resolution grid, allowing for an integrated analysis. This dataset is the first to include spatialized real estate and transportation data in a large sample of cities covering 800 million people in both developed and developing countries. These data can be used as inputs for urban modeling purposes, transport modeling, or between-city comparisons in urban forms and transportation networks, and allow further analyses on e.g. urban sprawl, access to transportation, or equity in housing prices and access to transportation. |
| Keywords: | Cities, Urban form, Land cover, Urban economics, Real estate, Transportation |
| Date: | 2023–02–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04433873&r=ure |
| By: | Greaves, Ellen (European University Institute); Turon, Hélène (University of Bristol) |
| Abstract: | Geographic school admissions criteria bind residential and school choices for some parents, and could create externalities in equilibrium for non-parents through displacement or higher rent. Through a dynamic structural model, we show that the policy decision of geographic versus non-geographic school admissions criteria has important implications for equilibrium outcomes in school and housing markets. Geographic admissions criteria segregate schools, but integrate neighborhoods according to income. Incorporating non-parents into the model challenges the existing understanding of how public schools affect the housing market: non-parent households dampen the equilibrium price premium around popular schools; non-parent households are never better off under geographic admissions. |
| Keywords: | school choice, residential choice, school admissions criteria |
| JEL: | I21 I24 R21 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16805&r=ure |
| By: | Hyunseung Oh; Choongryul Yang; Chamna Yoon |
| Abstract: | Using a novel data set of U.S. residential land developments, we document that the average time to develop residential properties-which includes both the time spent preparing land infrastructures and construction-is about three years, consistent with sizable lags in housing investment projects. We show that the time to develop is highly dispersed across locations, a finding that helps quantify the housing supply elasticity that is relevant for assessing local housing variations over the business cycle. We also show that incorporating long and dispersed time to develop into an otherwise standard housing investment model helps rationalize some empirical facts on the housing market. Our model implies that policies to boost housing supply are less effective in immediately stabilizing house prices for regions where land development takes a long time. |
| Keywords: | Housing supply; House price dynamics; Residential investment |
| JEL: | E22 E32 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–02–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-10&r=ure |
| By: | Borys Grochulski; Zhu Wang |
| Abstract: | We construct a model of home search and buying in the U.S. housing market and evaluate the commission paid to homebuyers' agents. In the model, as in reality, homebuyers enjoy free house showings without having to pay their agents out of pocket. Buyers' agents receive a commission equal to 3% of the house price only after a home is purchased. We show this compensation structure deviates from cost basis and may lead to elevated home prices, overused agent services, and prolonged home searches. Based on the model, we discuss policy interventions that may improve housing search efficiency and social welfare. |
| Keywords: | Search and matching; Housing market; Real estate commission |
| JEL: | D4 L1 L8 R3 |
| Date: | 2024–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedrwp:97893&r=ure |
| By: | Michele Cascarano (Bank of Italy); Filippo Natoli (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | Climate and weather variations affect search and matching processes. We provide evidence for the housing market by combining daily temperatures in Italian cities with online search for 2 million ads and in-person appointments with real estate agents. Two results stand out. First, extremely hot temperatures reduce search, both online and physical, increasing time to sale and delaying housing transactions. Second, they induce a preference shift away from properties that are not climate-safe, leading to persistently lower prices. Extreme temperature effects are asymmetric as colder months induce an increase in online (but not physical) search. |
| Keywords: | climate change, temperatures, housing search, house prices |
| JEL: | C78 G1 Q54 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1419_23&r=ure |
| By: | Milena Almagro (University of Chicago); Felipe Barbieri (University of Pennsylvania); Juan Camilo Castillo (University of Pennsylvania); Nathaniel Hickok (MIT); Tobias Salz (MIT) |
| Abstract: | We characterize optimal urban transportation policies in the presence of congestion and environmental externalities and evaluate their welfare and distributional effects. We present a framework of a municipal government that implements different transportation equilibria through its choice of public transit policies—prices and frequencies—as well as road pricing. The government faces a budget constraint that introduces monopoly-like distortions. We apply this framework to Chicago, for which we construct a new dataset that comprehensively captures transportation choices. We find that road pricing alone leads to large welfare gains by reducing externalities, but at the expense of consumers (travelers), whose surplus falls even if road pricing revenues are fully rebated. The largest losses are borne by middle income consumers, who are most reliant on cars. We find that the optimal price of public transit is close to zero and goes along with a reduction in the frequency of buses and an increase in the frequency of trains. Combining these transit policies with road pricing eliminates budget constraints. This allows the government to implement higher transit frequencies and even lower prices, in which case consumer surplus increases after rebates. |
| Keywords: | Urban transportation, public transit subsidy design, road pricing, spatial equilibrium, Ramsey pricing |
| JEL: | L91 L5 L13 H23 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2024–02–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pen:papers:24-004&r=ure |
| By: | Gennaro Catapano (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a new agent-based model (ABM) of the real estate and credit sectors. The main purpose of the model is to study the effects of introducing a borrower-based macroprudential policy on the banking system, households, and the real estate market. The paper describes a comprehensive set of policy experiments simulating the effects of introducing different loan-to-value (LTV) caps on newly issued mortgages. The analysis sheds light on the relevance of the degree of heterogeneity in household indebtedness tolerance and its mean level. Moreover, it studies the impact of the phase-in period length and of the timing of the introduction of such a measure. While generally effective in reducing credit risk and curbing both house prices and household indebtedness growth, these measures may also have transitory negative side effects on banks’ balance sheets and real estate markets. The results suggest the scenarios, calibration, and timing under which the introduction of an LTV cap might have the most favorable outcomes. |
| Keywords: | agent based model, housing market, macroprudential policy |
| JEL: | D1 D31 E58 R2 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_822_23&r=ure |
| By: | Kenneth P. Brevoort |
| Abstract: | Concerns have lingered since the 2007 subprime crisis that government housing policies promote risky mortgage lending. The first peer-reviewed evidence of a causal effect was published by the Review of Financial Studies in a paper (Saadi, 2020) linking the crisis to changes in the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) in 1995. A review of that paper, however, shows that it misrepresents the policy changes as having taken effect in mid-1998, 2.5 years after they were implemented. When the correct timing is used, a similar analysis yields no evidence of a relationship between CRA and riskier mortgage lending. Instead, the results are shown to reflect an unrelated confounding event, the first collapse of the U.S. subprime mortgage market following Russia's debt default in August 1998. |
| Keywords: | Community Reinvestment Act (CRA), House prices; Mortgage lending; Subprime crisis |
| JEL: | G21 G28 R38 |
| Date: | 2024–02–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2024-09&r=ure |
| By: | Elisa Facchetti; Lorenzo Neri; Marco Ovidi |
| Abstract: | Understanding parental response to non-test score attributes is crucial to design effective school choice systems. We study an intervention providing hard-to-find information on the school environment at local institutions, while holding information on school performance constant. Outflow to private education is reduced by 17%, with larger responses among advantaged students. Parents respond by increasing take-up of offers from local schools, intensifying competition for seats. Social interactions increase the program’s impact by 40%. Consistent with our interpretation, the intervention does not affect parental demand for school performance. We conclude that simple, low-cost interventions can improve state schools’ finances and peer quality. |
| Keywords: | school choice, non-test score school attributes, information intervention |
| JEL: | I24 I28 H75 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10926&r=ure |
| By: | Gaetano Basso (Bank of Italy); Salvatore Lo Bello (Bank of Italy); Francesca Subioli (Roma 3 University) |
| Abstract: | We study how local labor demand shocks affect internal migration using the universe of labor market flows for Italy. First, we document two novel facts: i) large and systematic differences between gross and net job and internal migration flows arise both across space and over time; ii) each gross flow is an important driver of the net growth rates. We estimate the causal impact of different-sign labor demand shocks on internal migration flows using as instrumental variable plausibly exogenous large mass hire and layoffs events. Our estimates reveal that job creation has a strong effect on the in-migration rate, whereas job destruction has a much milder effect on the out-migration rate. Crucially, we document that the large responsiveness of in-migration does not work through an increase in the number of relocating workers, but rather through changes in their chosen destination alternatives. We also find that the effects of job creation on in-migration flows have a much larger geographical reach than those of job destruction, as out-migration flows are locally concentrated. |
| Keywords: | labor demand, turnover, layoff, geographic labor mobility |
| JEL: | J23 J61 R23 J63 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1430_23&r=ure |
| By: | Higgins, Brian E. |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how mortgage borrowers and house prices react to a tightening of mortgage limits following a policy change in Ireland in 2015. The policy introduced limits to the loan-to-income and loan-to-value ratios of new mortgages issued. In response to a tightening borrowing constraint, borrowers can choose to purchase a cheaper house or to reduce the leverage (LTV) of the mortgage. Using a difference-in-difference methodology, I find that groups of (poorer) borrowers, who were more likely to be above the loan-to-income threshold before the policy, responded primarily by buying cheaper houses after the policy change. On the other hand, groups of (richer) borrowers, who were more likely to be above the loan-to-value threshold, responded primarily by reducing the LTV of the mortgage. Borrowers who purchase cheaper houses could be buying smaller houses or the same size houses at a lower equilibrium price. To test for changes in equilibrium prices, I compare prices across postcodes and find that houses prices fell after the policy change in postcodes where a higher fraction of borrowers were above the loan-to-income threshold before the policy. JEL Classification: G21, E21, E44, E58, R21, R30 |
| Keywords: | household leverage, house prices, macroprudential regulation, residential housing markets |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242909&r=ure |
| By: | Enrico Campos de Mira; Wilfredo Leiva Maldonado |
| Abstract: | This research examines the dynamics of commercial real estate prices in the Brazilian market, exploring the potential presence of speculative movements within the real estate market for the period 2012-2023. The study utilizes a conventional present value asset pricing model with a consistent discount factor and employs established bubble tests from the finance literature. These tests encompass assessments for explosive bubbles, periodic bubbles, multiple explosive bubbles and intrinsic bubbles. As a result, this approach allows us to diagnose unsustainable trends in the trajectory of real estate asset prices, should speculative bubbles be detected within the series. Utilizing data from the Fipezap survey provided by the Institute of Economic Research Foundation (FIPE), the study identifies evidence of periods marked by price exuberance, as indicated by the explosive bubble test and the multiple bubble test for some cities and the national price index. However, using the corresponding tests, no evidence of neither periodically collapsing bubbles nor intrinsic bubbles was found across any of the considered cities |
| Keywords: | Real Estate; Speculative Bubbles; Brazilian Empirical Analyses |
| JEL: | C32 G12 |
| Date: | 2024–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spa:wpaper:2024wpecon8&r=ure |
| By: | Benton, Eleanor; Russell, Ruby; Power, Anne |
| Abstract: | This report sets out the potential for small, community-based housing organisations to deliver homes for people in housing need, within their own communities. It uncovers innovative examples and models for how this can be done. The case study section is followed by a discussion, highlighting the unique role of small and community-led housing organisations, the barriers to their development, and recommendations for future policy action. |
| JEL: | R00 I00 |
| Date: | 2022–04–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121496&r=ure |
| By: | Hyunduk Suh (Inha University); So Jung Hwang (Inha University) |
| Abstract: | We estimate housing policy uncertainty (HPU) in Korea, employing the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) method by Baker et al. (2016). The uncertainty index is measured by the frequency of texts in Korean newspapers that imply housing policy uncertainty during 1997-2022. The HPU index has been high in Moo-hyun Roh's and Myung-bak Lee's administrations and has risen again since 2020. Also, HPU tends to increase during large housing market policy announcements, political instability, and administrative regime changes. We also analyze the effect of HPU on housing markets by estimating a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The VAR results suggest that a rise in HPU negatively affects housing prices and residential constructions but increases housing price volatility. Meanwhile, a positive shock in the housing prices endogenously raises HPU, which suggests that uncertainty was typically more significant in policies that aim to stabilize the housing market overheating. |
| Keywords: | housing policy, uncertainty, EPU, HPU, VAR |
| JEL: | E6 R31 R38 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inh:wpaper:2024-1&r=ure |
| By: | Aimable Nsabimana; Muthoni Nganga; Christine Niyizamwiyitira |
| Abstract: | In this study, we explore the impact of a smart classroom (SCM) programme on student performance in science subjects in a high-stakes national exam for middle-high school students in Rwanda. To do this, we leverage plausibly exogenous variations in programme exposure induced by the staggered implementation of the programme across schools and students. Overall, the study finds a positive effect of the programme on student performance. |
| Keywords: | Education, Technology, Rwanda |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2024-7&r=ure |
| By: | Shoko Yamane (Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University); Michiko Nakabayashi (Faculty of Economics, Kindai University) |
| Abstract: | We reveal the effect of education on academic performance and preferences by analyzing a special selection system for high school entrance examinations in Japan, the “school grouping policy.†Owing to the random assignment of students, the difference in performance between the schools in a group was due to their educational features. Education affected both academic performance and hometown loyalty, and the instruction on how to choose a college to apply to strongly influenced students’ choices. While there is significant selection bias in most empirical studies, our findings are free from such bias and are important when considering educational policies. |
| Keywords: | Natural experiment, Education, School choice, Hometown loyalty |
| JEL: | I26 I28 J24 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osk:wpaper:2402&r=ure |
| By: | Gulia Bovini (Bank of Italy); Niccolò Cattadori (Zurich University); Marta De Philippis (Bank of Italy); Paolo Sestito (Bank of ItalyClassification-JEL: H40, I21, I24, J13, J21) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the short- and medium-term effects of longer school days in primary education on student learning and on mothers’ labor supply. To tackle selection into the full-time (FT) scheme, we rely on a novel data set of primary-school application forms. We are thus able to control for parental preferences and to exploit the non-linear variation in the probability of attending the FT scheme that stems from the mix of FT and part-time applications a school receives and caps on class-sizes set by law. We show that attendance in the FT scheme does increase test scores in Math in grades 2 and 5 and scores in Italian in grade 2, but also that these effects are completely offset by the time students reach grade 8. Conversely, there is a positive and long-lasting impact on maternal labor force participation. Finally, we find some evidence of negative selection on gains, as the groups of students and mothers who would stand to benefit the most from FT are neither those more likely to apply for the FT scheme nor those whose applications for FT are more likely to be accepted. |
| Keywords: | School hours, Female labor supply, Selection into treatment, Student learning |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1423_23&r=ure |
| By: | Bolgherini Silvia (Department of Political Sciences, University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy;); Mollisi Vincenzo (Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics, University of Torino, Torino, Italy;) |
| Abstract: | Evidence on the electoral participation at the municipal level usually points to a detrimental effect of an enlarged size (due to amalgamation) at the following municipal elections. Contrary to previous studies, our results show an overall positive effect of amalgamation on municipal turnout: larger units do not necessarily vote less than smaller ones. In a quasi-experimental Difference-in-difference design following Callaway and Sant'Anna (2020), we find that the final municipal size per se does not explain turnout after amalgamation. Hence the traditional claim that a larger size should depress municipal turnout does not always hold. Cross- and within municipal heterogeneity emerges instead as a crucial lens for explaining such evidence. In particular, municipalities with higher dissent towards amalgamation show higher turnouts at the following municipal election. This article is the first study relative to Southern Europe and considers all municipalities merged between 2013 and 2019 in Italy. |
| Keywords: | Municipal amalgamations, Turnout, Local institutions' Size, Referendum, Consent/dissent, Political efficacy, Difference-in-Difference |
| JEL: | H7 H70 H77 D7 D72 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tur:wpapnw:091&r=ure |
| By: | Garcez, Lucas N. (University of Tennessee); Padilla-Romo, María (University of Tennessee); Peluffo, Cecilia (University of Florida); Pineda-Torres, Mayra (Georgia Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | We study the causal relationship between educational attainment and teenage birth rates by focusing on a large-scale, country-wide reform that made high school compulsory and removed previously existing school capacity constraints in Mexico. Relying on administrative data on schools and births, we implement a difference-in-differences strategy that exploits variation across time and municipality-level exposure to the reform to explore the effects of expanding educational opportunities on teenage fertility. We find that teenage birth rates decreased by 2.8 percent after the education reform in municipalities with high increases in high school availability relative to municipalities with low increases. This decline is not driven by a decline in the time teenagers had to engage in risky behaviors (incapacitation effect) but a potential change in expectations for the future. |
| Keywords: | education reform, teenage birth rate, human capital |
| JEL: | I12 I21 I28 J13 J16 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16791&r=ure |
| By: | Furbach, Nina |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how demographics affect aggregate labor market power, the urban wage premium and the spatial concentration of population. I develop a quantitative spatial model in which labor market competitiveness depends on the demographic composition of the local workforce. Using highly disaggregated administrative data from Germany, I find that firms have more labor market power over older workers: The labor supply elasticity decreases from more than 2 to 1 from age 20 to 64. Calibrating the model with the reduced-form elasticity estimates, I find that differences in labor supply elasticities across age groups can explain 4% of the urban wage premium and 2% of the spatial concentration of population. Demographics and skill together account for 10% of the urban wage premium and 2% of agglomeration. JEL Classification: J11, J31, J42, R23 |
| Keywords: | demographics, Germany, monopsonistic competition, spatial equilibrium, urban wage premium |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20242906&r=ure |
| By: | Diego Aycinena; Francisco B. Galarza Arellano; Javier Torres |
| Abstract: | Sudden massive migration influxes have been a new driving force of migration increases in recent decades. These types of migration flows present potential challenges to social and economic integration. In this paper we study socioeconomic integration using controlled laboratory experiments in a context of massive inflow of Venezuelan migrants in Peru, where the share of Venezuelan immigrants in the country’s population increased from almost zero in 2016 to 2.5 percent in 2019. Using adult (non-student) native-born Peruvians and Venezuelan immigrants as subjects, we conducted homogeneous (same nationality) and mixed (different nationality) experimental sessions in Lima, to examine interactions that require cooperation, coordination, trust, and reciprocity to achieve a Pareto efficient outcome. We find no evidence of in-group versus out-group (based on nationality) difference in those measures of pro-social behavior. Within this context, we also find no differentials in normative or empirical expectations in behavior of non-nationals relative to those of nationals, and only small to moderate implicit bias. This lack of differential treatment is suggestive of short-run economic integration between immigrants and natives, in a challenging context of massive influxes of migrants. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Cooperation, Coordination, Trust, Economic Interactions, Lab Experiments |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apc:wpaper:199&r=ure |
| By: | Boffa Federico (Faculty of Economics and Management, Free University of Bozen/Bolzano and Collegio Carlo Alberto, Italy;); Mollisi Vincenzo (Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics, University of Torino, Torino, Italy;); Ponzetto A. M. Giacomo (CREI, UPF, IPEG and BSE, Spain;) |
| Abstract: | Poor performance by the established political class can drive voters towards anti- establishment outsiders. Is the ineffectiveness of incumbent politicians an important driver of the recent rise of populist parties? We provide an empirical test exploiting a sharp discontinuity in the wage of local politicians as a function of population in Italian municipalities. We find that the more skilled local politicians and more effective local government in municipalities above the threshold cause a significant drop in voter support for the populist Five-Star Movement in regional and national elections. Support for incumbent governing parties increases instead. |
| Keywords: | Populism, Government efficiency, Politician quality, Political agency. |
| JEL: | D72 D73 H70 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tur:wpapnw:087&r=ure |
| By: | Michele Loberto (Bank of Italy); Alessandro Mistretta (Bank of Italy); Matteo Spuri (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | Mitigating the negative impact of climate change implies a drastic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions: moving towards the net-zero target requires, among other things, a dramatic improvement in the energy efficiency of residential buildings, which account for 12.5 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions in Italy. This paper estimates the extent to which energy efficiency labels are capitalized into house prices. We find that the most energy-efficient houses sell at a 25 per cent premium over the least efficient ones. Our contribution is relevant for two reasons. First, we provide granular estimates of the impact of energy labels on house prices in Italy and show that the energy efficiency premium is significantly heterogeneous across provinces due to differences in climate conditions and regulatory frameworks. Second, energy labels play a key role and are used as a benchmark for several policies, and the heterogeneity in the energy efficiency premium may call for more targeted public policies that promote investment in energy efficiency. |
| Keywords: | housing, energy efficiency |
| JEL: | O1 Q5 R3 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_818_23&r=ure |
| By: | Effrosyni Adamopoulou; Jeremy Greenwood; Nezih Guner; Karen A. Kopecky |
| Abstract: | The role of friends in the US opioid epidemic is examined. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health (Add Health), adults aged 25-34 and their high school best friends are focused on. An instrumental variable technique is employed to estimate peer effects in opioid misuse. Severe injuries in the previous year are used as an instrument for opioid misuse in order to estimate the causal impact of someone misusing opioids on the probability that their best friends also misuse. The estimated peer effects are significant: Having a best friend with a reported serious injury in the previous year increases the probability of own opioid misuse by around 7 percentage points in a population where 17 percent ever misuses opioids. The effect is driven by individuals without a college degree and those who live in the same county as their best friends. |
| Keywords: | opioid; peer-group effects; friends; instrumental variables; Add Health; severe injuries |
| JEL: | C26 D10 I12 J11 |
| Date: | 2024–02–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwq:97764&r=ure |
| By: | John C. Williams |
| Abstract: | Remarks at Long Island Association Regional Economic Briefing, Garden City, New York. |
| Keywords: | price stability; employment; economic outlook; inflation |
| Date: | 2024–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsp:97871&r=ure |
| By: | Couts, Spencer J. (U of Southern California); Goncalves, Andrei S. (Ohio State U) |
| Abstract: | Private Commercial Real Estate (CRE) funds provide institutional investors an opportunity to access the CRE market, but most of them are inaccessible to typical individual (retail) investors. In this paper, we study the early performance (2016 to 2023) of a special and emerging class of non-listed CRE funds that are accessible to individual investors. These funds, referred to as Net Asset Value (NAV) Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), have grown in importance over the last decade. They now represent a major alternative to publicly traded REITs in providing individual investors a way to access CRE investments without direct ownership. We find that the observed returns from these NAV REITs suffer from smoothness due to lagged pricing updates, and thus unsmoothing returns is important for studying their risk-adjusted performance. We then show that NAV REITs have delivered large alphas relative to public indices over our sample period. Finally, we highlight that traditional alpha analysis may not be adequate for a short sample like ours and provide an alternative alpha analysis that indicates the alphas of NAV REITs over our sample period were economically meaningful, albeit substantially lower than traditional alpha analysis suggests. |
| JEL: | G11 G23 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2024-01&r=ure |
| By: | Anton E. Bobrov; Rupal Kamdar; Mauricio Ulate |
| Abstract: | U.S. monetary-policy decisions are made by the 12 voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Seven of these members, coming from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, inherently represent national-level interests. The remaining five members, a rotating group of presidents from the 12 Federal Reserve districts, come instead from sub-national jurisdictions. Does this structure have relevant implications for the monetary policy-making process? In this paper, we first build a panel dataset on economic activity across Fed districts. We then provide evidence that regional economic conditions influence the voting behavior of district presidents. Specifically, a regional unemployment rate that is one percentage point higher than the U.S. level is associated with an approximately nine percentage points higher probability of dissenting in favor of looser policy at the FOMC. This result is statistically significant, robust to different specifications, and indicates that the regional component in the structure of the FOMC could matter for monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy; Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC); regional economics; Taylor Rule |
| JEL: | E32 E52 E58 E61 |
| Date: | 2024–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfwp:97860&r=ure |
| By: | Su Y. Jang (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Silvia Loi (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Frank J. van Lenthe; Anna Oksuzyan (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Mikko Myrskylä (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2024-003&r=ure |
| By: | Abrahamsson, Sara (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | How smartphone usage affects well-being and learning among children and adolescents is a concern for schools, parents, and policymakers. Combining detailed administrative data with survey data on middle schools’ smartphone policies, together with an event-study design, I show that banning smartphones significantly decreases the health care take-up for psychological symptoms and diseases among girls. Post-ban bullying among both genders decreases. Additionally, girls’ GPA improves, and their likelihood of attending an academic high school track increases. These effects are larger for girls from low socio-economic backgrounds. Hence, banning smartphones from school could be a low-cost policy tool to improve student outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Smartphones; mental health; grade point average; bullying; test scores |
| JEL: | I12 I21 I31 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2024_001&r=ure |
| By: | Aristide Houndetoungan; Asad Islam; Michael Vlassopoulos; Yves Zenou |
| Abstract: | Social networks play an important role in various aspects of life. While extensive research has explored factors such as gender, race, and education in network formation, one dimension that has received less attention is the gender of one's child. Children tend to form friendships with same-gender peers, potentially leading their parents to interact based on their child's gender. Focusing on households with children aged 3-5, we leverage a rich dataset from rural Bangladesh to investigate the role of children's gender in parental network formation. We estimate an equilibrium model of network formation that considers a child's gender alongside other socioeconomic factors. Counterfactual analyses reveal that children's gender significantly shapes parents' network structure. Specifically, if all children share the same gender, households would have approximately 15% more links, with a stronger effect for families having girls. Importantly, the impact of children's gender on network structure is on par with or even surpasses that of factors such as income distribution, parental occupation, education, and age. These findings carry implications for debates surrounding coed versus single-sex schools, as well as policies that foster inter-gender social interactions among children. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.04474&r=ure |
| By: | Shuping Shi (Macquarie University); Peter C. B. Phillips (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | Australian housing markets experienced widespread and, in some cases, extraordinary growth in prices between 2020 and 2023. Using recently developed methodology that accounts for fundamental economic drivers, we assess the existence and degree of speculative behaviour as well as the timing of exuberance and downturns in these markets. Our findings indicate that speculative behaviour was indeed present in six of the eight capital cities at some time over the period studied. The sequence of events in this nation-wide housing bubble began in the Brisbane market and concluded in Melbourne, Canberra, and Hobart following the interest rate hike implemented by the Reserve Bank of Australia in May 2022. As of March 2023, the housing markets in Sydney, Canberra, and Hobart had broadly regained stable conditions, while Melbourne is more gradually returning to its normal state. In addition, over-corrections against fundamentals are evident in the housing markets of Brisbane, Adelaide, Darwin, and Perth. For regular updates on the housing markets, readers may visit the authorsÕ website at www.housing-fever.com. |
| Date: | 2023–07–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2381&r=ure |
| By: | Paul Hurlet (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Ouassim Manout (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Azise Oumar Diallo (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles - IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles) |
| Abstract: | This work addresses the challenges of implementing shared e-scooter services (SSS) in urban areas. Despite their potential for sustainable mobility, issues like road safety and street cluttering persist. Policy regulation is crucial, and recent efforts have focused on free-floating e-scooter parking legislation. To assist decision-making, this paper proposes an agent-based framework to design SSS parking supply and evaluate its impact. The methodology is applied in Lyon, France, where the SSS is gaining more and more territory. The main outcomes show parking regulation can introduce conflicting objectives, with a reduction of SSS use due to an increase in the access and egress walking distance. |
| Keywords: | Shared e-Scooter Services (SSS), Micromobility, Regulation, Parking, Agent-Based Model (ABM), MATSim |
| Date: | 2024–04–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04422427&r=ure |
| By: | Fan, Ying (Department of Building and Real Estate, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University); Wang, Yidi (Department of Economics, Communication University of Beijing, China); Yang, Zan (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of offspring’s income uncertainty associated with college enrollment on intergenerational decisions. We exploit the experiment of the national college entrance examination (NCEE) reform in China, which increases the uncertainty of households containing students of compulsory education age. Based on comprehensive survey data, we find that 1) offspring’s uncertainty arising from the NCEE reform significantly decreases household total consumption and shifts consumption structures toward intergenerational inputs and housing purchases; 2) additional housing demand can be attributed to a dynastic precautionary motivation, which has heterogeneous effects based on a status quo bias toward exposure to and perception of the reform; 3) the inclusion of illiquid housing assets tilts the portfolio of households toward safe and liquid financial assets, and this allocation adjustment makes households financially worse off. |
| Keywords: | offspring’s uncertainty; national college entrance examination; consumption; asset allocation; China |
| JEL: | D81 G51 R21 |
| Date: | 2024–02–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:kthrec:2024_004&r=ure |
| By: | Taryn Dinkelman; Grace Kumchulesi; Martine Mariotti |
| Abstract: | Between 1967 and 1974, a bilateral treaty increased circular labor migration from Malawi to South Africa by 200%, bringing over 53 million USD in earnings into origin communities. A deadly migrant worker plane crash in 1974 ended these flows and led to migrant repatriation. We study how this shock affected local labor markets. In regions receiving more migrant capital after the crash, workers, particularly women, shifted from farming into non-farm work over thirty years. Investments in non-farm physical and human capital contribute to these sectoral changes. This natural experiment shows that temporary capital inflows can permanently reshape rural labor markets. |
| JEL: | J21 J24 O15 O55 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32144&r=ure |
| By: | Burchardt, Tania; Provan, Bert; Cooper, Kerris |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this note is to share with the research community the lessons we feel we have learned from a public engagement exercise that we undertook, in collaboration with Sense about Science, as part of the Social Policies and Distributional Outcomes in a Changing Britain (SPDO) programme, funded by the Nuffield Foundation. |
| Keywords: | social security; employment; early childhood; compulsory school age education; higher education; health; social care; physical safety and security; homelessness; complex needs; social mobility |
| JEL: | I00 |
| Date: | 2022–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121510&r=ure |
| By: | Katrine Jakobsen; Henrik Kleven; Jonas Kolsrud; Camille Landais; Mathilde Muñoz |
| Abstract: | Using administrative data on wealth, firm ownership structure, and migration in Sweden and Denmark, we document international migration patterns among the very wealthy, their impact on the economy, and how they respond to wealth taxation. We show that more than 20% of taxpayers liable to pay wealth tax are business-owners, and that the employment, investments, and value-added of these businesses are negatively affected when their owner migrates out of the country. Exploiting three large reforms, we then isolate the causal effect of wealth taxation on the international location choices of the wealthy. We find significant effects on out-migration flows from increases in the effective wealth tax. But, we also document that the overall level of these migration flows is remarkably small, with annual net-migration rates below .01%. As a result, we find that the aggregate economic effects of tax-induced migration are modest in Scandinavia: a one percentage point increase in the average wealth tax rate on the top 2% decreases the stock of wealthy taxpayers by at most 2% in the long run, and lead to a reduction of at most .03% in aggregate employment and at most .1% in aggregate value- added. Hence, our results suggest that trickle-down effects of tax-induced migration by the wealthy do exist, but that they are quantitatively small. |
| JEL: | D31 E21 H20 H31 L26 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32153&r=ure |
| By: | Dela Cruz, Nina Ashley (Lanzhou University); Adona, Ann Jillian (University of San Francisco); Molato-Gayares, Rhea (Asian Development Bank); Park , Albert (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This systematic review covers 56 studies that measure the effects of school closures on learning outcomes during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and 20 studies that evaluate the impact of measures to reduce learning loss. It restricts attention to evaluations with credible control groups and provides the first meta-analysis of learning losses that covers more developing countries (21) than developed ones (15). We find that a year of school closure is associated with learning loss equivalent to 1.1 years’ worth of learning and that school reopening mitigates these losses down to 0.5 years. With regard to measures to reduce learning loss, we find that tutoring delivered either in-person or through mobile phones has positive, statistically significant effects on mitigating learning loss. |
| Keywords: | learning loss; COVID-19; education; systematic review; meta-analysis |
| JEL: | I20 I21 I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2024–03–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0717&r=ure |
| By: | Sahab Zandi; Kamesh Korangi; Mar\'ia \'Oskarsd\'ottir; Christophe Mues; Cristi\'an Bravo |
| Abstract: | Whereas traditional credit scoring tends to employ only individual borrower- or loan-level predictors, it has been acknowledged for some time that connections between borrowers may result in default risk propagating over a network. In this paper, we present a model for credit risk assessment leveraging a dynamic multilayer network built from a Graph Neural Network and a Recurrent Neural Network, each layer reflecting a different source of network connection. We test our methodology in a behavioural credit scoring context using a dataset provided by U.S. mortgage financier Freddie Mac, in which different types of connections arise from the geographical location of the borrower and their choice of mortgage provider. The proposed model considers both types of connections and the evolution of these connections over time. We enhance the model by using a custom attention mechanism that weights the different time snapshots according to their importance. After testing multiple configurations, a model with GAT, LSTM, and the attention mechanism provides the best results. Empirical results demonstrate that, when it comes to predicting probability of default for the borrowers, our proposed model brings both better results and novel insights for the analysis of the importance of connections and timestamps, compared to traditional methods. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.00299&r=ure |
| By: | Francesco Scotti; Andrea Flori; Piercesare Secchi; Marika Arena; Giovanni Azzone |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to explore the factors stimulating different tourism behaviours, with specific reference to same-day visits and overnight stays. To this aim, we employ mobile network data referred to the area of Lombardy. The paper highlights that larger availability of tourism accommodations, cultural and natural endowments are relevant factors explaining overnight stays. Conversely, temporary entertainment and transportation facilities increase municipalities attractiveness for same-day visits. The results also highlight a trade-off in the capability of municipalities of being attractive in connection to both the tourism behaviours, with higher overnight stays in areas with more limited same-day visits. Mobile data offer a spatial and temporal granularity allowing to detect relevant patterns and support the design of tourism precision policies. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.05679&r=ure |
| By: | Andrea Bernini; Giovanni Facchini; Marco Tabellini; Cecilia Testa |
| Abstract: | We review the literature on the effects of the 1965 Voting Rights Act (VRA), which removed formal restrictions to Black political participation. After a brief description of racial discrimination suffered by Black Americans since Reconstruction, we introduce the goals that the VRA was meant to achieve. Next, we discuss the local level impact of the law on political participation and representation, on public goods provision and policing practices, and on labor market outcomes. We then turn to whites’ reactions, from political realignment to electoral counter-mobilization to changes in voting rules and arrests patterns. We conclude by discussing how the evidence reviewed in this article can inform policy-making and the design of legislation aimed at reducing racial discrimination and inequality. |
| Date: | 2024–02–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:1035&r=ure |
| By: | Paola Azar (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía); Carolina Roman (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the Uruguayan epidemiological transition from a regional perspective. It covers the period between the end of the 19th century and the end of the 1960s. Using an especially elaborated database on total mortality and cause of death rates at the department level, we compute beta and sigma convergence, identify regions featured by high or low mortality rates and implement a shift-share analysis on the components of the mortality rate for the 19 departments. Our results show that the pace of beta convergence was heterogeneous across regions while dispersion measures displayed no statistically significant sigma convergence both for total and non-preventable deaths. The local component played a role to explain the mortality level particularly after 1930 and regional income levels are not enough to explain why preventable deaths remained high in some territories. The analysis provides new insights on the dynamics of the epidemiological transition and the extent at which the improved living conditions, typical of this historical period, effectively reached the whole territory. |
| Keywords: | epidemiological transition, mortality, Latin America, Uruguay, 20th century |
| JEL: | I14 N36 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-23-23&r=ure |
| By: | Hongbin Li; Lingsheng Meng; Kai Mu; Shaoda Wang |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the unintended effect of English language requirement on educational inequality by investigating how the staggered rollout of English listening tests in China’s high-stakes National College Entrance Exam (NCEE) affected the rural-urban gap in college access. Leveraging administrative data covering the universe of NCEE participants between 1999 and 2003, we find that the introduction of English listening tests significantly lowered rural students’ exam score percentile ranks relative to their urban counterparts, resulting in a 30% increase in the rural-urban gap in college access. Our back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that, as a result of this policy change, more than 54, 000 rural students lost college seats to their urban peers between 1999 and 2003, and another 11, 000 rural students who elite colleges could have admitted ended up in non-elite colleges, causing them significant future income losses. |
| JEL: | F69 I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32162&r=ure |
| By: | Daniela, Antonescu; Ioana, Florescu |
| Abstract: | The outbreak of COVID-19 has induced economic and financial disruptions to global economies, consistent with those experienced during previous episodes of economic or financial crises. This article offers a global perspective into the spread of the virus by investigating the convergence patterns of COVID-19 across 242 regions NUTS 2 in European Union, in period 2019 - 2022. The analysis presents regional imbalances evaluated by statistical techniques and methods that can reflect the evolution concerning the main economic aspects. Using the Gini coefficient for the last four years we demonstrated there was a slow convergence process in the NUTS 2 regions interrupted by the pandemic global crisis. Also, the evolution of the GDP per capita in PPS at regional level in the case of all the Member States for the 1997-2021 was analyzed in order to show the intensity between the crises. The pandemic crisis was also compared to the economic crisis (2008-2009) which demonstrated that the COVID-19 didn’t have the same impact as the financial one, pandemic had the lower intensity. |
| Keywords: | regional convergence, Gini Coefficient, NUTS 2 Regions, COVID-19 pandemic crisis, economic-financial crisis |
| JEL: | R0 R11 R15 R19 |
| Date: | 2023–11–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120224&r=ure |
| By: | Bassier, Ihsaan |
| Abstract: | How important are firms for wage inequality in developing countries where structural unemployment is high? Research focused on contexts close to full employment has suggested a substantial role of firms in labor market inequality. Using matched employer-employee data from South Africa, I find that firms explain a larger share of wage variation than in richer countries. I consider drivers of this, documenting first a higher productivity dispersion as found for other developing countries. Secondly, I estimate the separations elasticity by instrumenting wages of matched workers with firm wages, and I find a low separations elasticity. This generates a high degree of monopsony, and the correspondingly high estimated rent-sharing elasticity helps explain the important role of firm wage policies in inequality. Monopsony may be driven by higher unemployment, and regional heterogeneity provides suggestive evidence for this. Such firm-level competitive dynamics may exacerbate inequality in developing countries more generally. |
| Keywords: | inequality; firm wage premia; unemployment; monopsony |
| JEL: | D31 J31 J42 J63 J64 |
| Date: | 2022–10–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121970&r=ure |
| By: | Agnese Bafundi (Bank of Italy); Antonio Sparacino (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the relationship between the procurement methods adopted by Italian municipalities for the purchase of electricity and gas and the cost per capita incurred for these supplies. It empirically evaluates the effect of centralized purchasing for these expenditure categories. Using a unique dataset including payments made by Italian municipalities between 2019 and 2022, recorded on the Siope+ platform, we find that purchasing through Consip or regional procurement centres is associated with cost savings compared with direct procurement. Our analysis confirms the effectiveness of centralized procurement in the context of energy expenditures and highlights the potential efficiency gains associated with the ongoing increase in the rate of adoption of such systems. |
| Keywords: | centralization, procurement, energy expenses, local public finance |
| JEL: | H57 H76 K23 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_826_23&r=ure |
| By: | Pushkar Maitra; Sandip Mitra; Dilip Mookherjee; Sujata Visaria |
| Abstract: | It has been argued that since 2014, under the BJP-led central government, welfare benefits in India have become better targeted and less prone to clientelistic control by state and local governments. Arguably this has helped to increase the vote share of the BJP vis-a-vis regional parties. We test these hypotheses using longitudinal data from 3500 rural households in the state of West Bengal. We fail to find evidence that the new “central” programs introduced after 2014 were better targeted than traditional “state” programs, or that the targeting of state programs improved after 2014. Households receiving the new “central” benefits introduced since 2014 were more likely to switch their political support to the BJP. However, changes in the scale, composition or targeting of these programs, in clientelistic effectiveness of traditional state programs or in household incomes, fail to account for the large observed increase in the voters' support for the BJP. Non-Hindus, especially recent immigrant non-Hindus, were much less likely to switch support to the BJP, even after controlling for benefits received and changes in household incomes. Our results suggest that ideology and identity politics were more important factors explaining the rising popularity of the BJP. |
| JEL: | H53 H75 O17 O23 P43 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32157&r=ure |
| By: | Whitehead, Savannah Jolie |
| Abstract: | The research question at hand delves into the disparities in income or yearly earnings among racial and ethnic groups in the United States, while holding all other variables constant. This question is of paramount importance as it explores the existence of racial discrimination within the United States' supposedly equal-opportunity meritocratic society. By investigating the potential differences in income between individuals with the same level of education, we can shed light on the presence of systemic racial bias and its impact on economic outcomes. The population of interest in this study encompasses individuals from various racial and ethnic backgrounds residing in the United States (Sandefur, G. D., & Pahari, A. (1989). By examining different racial and ethnic groups, such as African Americans, Hispanics, Asians, and Caucasians, we can gain a comprehensive understanding of income disparities across the nation . A diverse sample will provide a nuanced perspective on the influence of race in determining economic success (Greenman, E., & Xie, Y. (2008).To address the question at hand, it is crucial to distinguish between causality and correlation. While it may be tempting to attribute income disparities solely to racial discrimination, it is important to consider other factors that contribute to these disparities. Socioeconomic background, education, occupation choice, and geographic location are just a few examples of variables that may confound the relationship between race and income. Recognizing the distinction between causality and correlation allows for a more accurate analysis of the impact of race on earnings. |
| Date: | 2024–02–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:kgzad&r=ure |
| By: | Hiilamo, Aapo; Luotonen, Niilo; Mäkinen, Lauri; Ristikari, Tiina |
| Abstract: | Monitoring the ways in which childhood socioeconomic environment is associated with adult outcomes is fundamental in terms of informing evidence-based policy debates. However, we know little about the cohort differences in the association of childhood income with adult outcomes in Finland, a country of low income-inequality and one of the most desegregated educational systems in the OECD countries. We use longitudinal FOLK register data on complete population cohorts born in 1981-89. We divide these cohorts into tenths by their parental, school and postcode-level aggregated income at the age of 15. We focus on five demographic and socioeconomic adult outcomes at the age of 30. On average across the cohorts, compared to the highest income groups, the lowest tenth of parental, school and postcode income had, respectively, a 1.8, 1.7 and 1.4-fold risk of death, 3, 1.3 and 0.9-fold risk of low education, 2.5, 1.8, and 1.4-fold risk of long-term unemployment. People with a lower childhood parental or school income were more likely to live with a partner and have children than people from higher income backgrounds. The differences by school and postcode income in the education outcome were small, indicating limited school and area segregation in the country. However, we observe increasing absolute and relative differences in the education and employment outcomes by parental and, to a lesser extent, school aggregated income. |
| Date: | 2024–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:3a4gq&r=ure |
| By: | Heizler (Cohen), Odelia (Academic College of Tel-Aviv Yaffo); Israeli, Osnat (Ashkelon College) |
| Abstract: | Dramatic events can evoke feelings of compassion, fear, or threat, and can affect public opinion regarding controversial issues. Such an event was the drowning of 3-year-old Alan Kurdi, a Syrian boy whose body washed up on a Turkish shore, and was photographed, producing an iconic image that was seen worldwide. The image evoked empathy and compassion that neuroscience and psychological research associate with a motivation to help. This paper examines the impact of this event on four different aspects of attitudes toward immigration, some of which are more closely linked to pro-social behavior than others. The timing of the European Social Survey in Portugal allowed us to use this tragic event as a natural experiment. Our results show that Kurdi's drowning had a significant effect on emotion-related sentiments, but no such impact was detected on other attitudes. The results suggest that the event did not change the respondents' opinion regarding the possible negative consequences of immigration on the host country's economy, crime level, or culture, nor did it change their perception of the skills required by immigrants. On the other hand, the empathy induced by the tragic event increased their willingness to have a less restrictive immigration policy and their openness to having close social relationships with immigrants. |
| Keywords: | European Social Survey, anti-immigration attitudes, natural experiment, social distance, threat perceptions |
| JEL: | F22 J15 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16802&r=ure |
| By: | Batabyal, Amitrajeet; Beladi, Hamid |
| Abstract: | We think of the cleanup of water pollution in the Ganges river in India as a local public good and ask whether this cleanup ought to be decentralized or centralized. We depart from the existing literature on this subject in two important ways. First, we allow the heterogeneous spillovers from cleaning up water pollution to be positive or negative. Second, we focus on water pollution cleanup in three cities---Kanpur, Prayagraj, Varanasi---through which the Ganges flows. Our model sheds light on two broad issues. First, we characterize efficient water pollution cleanup in the three cities, we describe how much water pollution is cleaned up under decentralization, we describe the set of cleanup amounts under decentralization, and we discuss why pollution cleanup under decentralization is unlikely to be efficient. Second, we focus on centralization. We derive the tax paid by the inhabitants of the three cities for pollution cleanup, the benefit to a city inhabitant from water pollution cleanup, how majority voting determines how much pollution is cleaned up when the spillovers from cleanup are uniform, and finally, we compare the amounts of pollution cleaned up with majority voting with the efficient pollution cleanup amounts. |
| Keywords: | Centralization, Cost Sharing, Decentralization, Ganges River, Water Pollution |
| JEL: | O13 Q53 |
| Date: | 2024–01–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:120175&r=ure |
| By: | Brown, Dan (GiveWell); De Cao, Elisabetta (University of Bologna) |
| Abstract: | Child maltreatment is pervasive, often undetected, yet harmful. We investigate whether it is impacted by unemployment by leveraging unique administrative data including all reported cases of child abuse and neglect in the United States from 2004 to 2012. Using an industry shift-share instrument to identify county-level unemployment effects, we find a substantial rise in neglect. The likely channel is lower quality-time spent with children rather than decreased financial investments. Expenditures on children remain stable during recessions. Instead, higher local-area unemployment rate reduces parental childcare time, worsens mental health, and contributes to an increase in one-parent households. |
| Keywords: | child abuse and neglect, unemployment rate, recession, Bartik, mental health |
| JEL: | I10 D10 J12 J13 K42 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16799&r=ure |
| By: | Pranab Bardhan; Sandip Mitra; Dilip Mookherjee; Anusha Nath |
| Abstract: | Using rural household survey data from West Bengal, we find that voters respond positively to excludable government welfare benefits but not to local public good programs, while reporting having benefited from both. Consistent with these voting patterns, shocks to electoral competition induced by exogenous redistricting of villages resulted in upper-tier governments manipulating allocations across local governments only for excludable benefit programs. Using a hierarchical budgeting model, we argue these results provide credible evidence of the presence of clientelism rather than programmatic politics. |
| JEL: | H40 H75 H76 O10 P48 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32158&r=ure |
| By: | Akira IGARASHI (Faculty of Human Sciences, Osaka University); Charles CRABTREE (Department of Government, Dartmouth College); Yoshikuni ONO (Faculty of Political Science and Economics, Waseda University) |
| Abstract: | Many studies argue that intergroup relations between immigrants and natives are influenced by perceptions of cultural distance. They claim that natives tend to favor immigrants who are fluent in the host society’s language, which is operationalized by researchers as a sign of cultural assimilation and identification with the host society. This work assumes that language proficiency is a reasonable manifest indicator of the latent trait of national identification, even though these two concepts, although potentially related, are theoretically distinct. Our study aims to disentangle the relationship between immigrants’ language proficiency and their national identification in the context of the United States. We conducted pre-registered vignette and conjoint experiments to achieve this goal with national samples of 3, 325 and 4, 201, respectively. The results from the vignette experiment indicate that natives exhibit a preference for immigrants who not only possess fluent English skills but also independently strongly identify with the United States. Notably, the effect size for national identification is significantly larger than for language proficiency. These findings are further supported by the results from the conjoint experiment, which incorporates a broader range of immigrant attributes. Our results highlight the interrelated yet distinct nature of national identification and language proficiency. The broader takeaway is that relying solely on language proficiency as a measure of national identification can yield biased results and lead to misleading conclusions. Our findings have implications for the literatures on immigration and for experiments that use language proficiency as an experimental treatment. |
| Keywords: | immigrants; national identification; language proficiency; survey experiments |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wap:wpaper:2312&r=ure |
| By: | Cooper, Kerris; Obolenskaya, Polina |
| Abstract: | Published crime statistics show that following a long-term decline in violent crime there has been a flattening out in recent years and certain types of violent crime have increased. This research note examines who is most at risk of violence and how this has changed over time, focusing on the characteristics of sex, age, disability and ethnicity. Findings show that while violence significantly declined overall between 2004/05 and 2018/19, it did not decrease across all groups in the population. |
| JEL: | I00 |
| Date: | 2022–09–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121519&r=ure |
| By: | Patrick Welch (Lincoln Institute of Land Policy); Enrique Silva (Lincoln Institute of Land Policy); Martim Smolka (Lincoln Institute of Land Policy); Amy Cotter (Lincoln Institute of Land Policy) |
| Abstract: | The urgent need to address climate change has prompted subnational governments worldwide to explore innovative financing mechanisms to fund climate investments. This paper examines land value capture (LVC) as a potential source of financing for local climate action, reviewing instruments and implications associated with their implementation. It demonstrates how public climate interventions, including low-carbon transportation and green infrastructure, can positively impact land values and how subnational governments can recover those increments through LVC for additional public benefit. The paper examines common LVC instruments and their rationale, exploring how these mechanisms have been employed in different jurisdictions to fund climate mitigation and adaptation efforts. The paper underscores the potential of LVC as a viable financing mechanism for subnational climate action, offering insights into its practical implementation. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper2401&r=ure |
| By: | Canavire Bacarreza, Gustavo J. (World Bank); Puerta-Cuartas, Alejandro (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid); Beverinotti, Javier (Inter-American Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | A decline in poverty generally masks regional disparities that are due to varying efficiency among states. Using a generalized true random-effects model, we distinguish between persistent and transient inefficiencies on subnational efficiency to reduce poverty and its determinants in Bolivia. Our findings reveal that states differ in terms of efficiency, with some excelling and others facing challenges. Persistent inefficiency emerges as pivotal, emphasizing the need for long-term policy recalibration. We find that when the macroeconomic conditions in Bolivia allow for a 10 percent reduction in the poverty rate, states can achieve at most an 8.2 percent reduction, and on average, they reduce it by 7.3 percent. Efficiency correlates positively with the tertiary sector's size; relationships with the primary and secondary sectors depend on their size, showing positive associations only if these sectors are fairly large. Additionally, states with lower unemployment and informality tend to be more efficient, highlighting the labor market's crucial role. |
| Keywords: | poverty, Bolivia, efficiency analysis |
| JEL: | C23 D63 I32 O41 |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16794&r=ure |
| By: | Richa Richa; Ilan Noy; Subir Sen |
| Abstract: | Extreme weather induced migration is a growing concern for low and middle income countries due to the increased variability in the weather and the increase in the number of extreme weather disasters associated with climate change. The objective of this paper is to examine the inter-linkages between weather, disasters, and migration, in India. To examine the bidirectional flow of migrants across Indian states, we estimate gravity models with Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML), in line with previous studies’ methodology. We find that agriculture-dependent states and states with low level of human development are more likely to face out-migration driven by weather variations and disasters. Internal migration is seasonal, temporary and often short-distance in nature. We find statistical evidence that repeated exposure of vulnerable populations to extreme weather and disasters may ultimately lead to more permanent migration. This raises urgent questions concerning the efficacy of disaster risk management and climate change adaptation policies at the sub-national level. |
| Keywords: | climate, disasters, bilateral migration, NELM, gravity model |
| JEL: | O15 Q54 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10919&r=ure |
| By: | Chiaki Moriguchi; Yusuke Narita; Mari Tanaka |
| Abstract: | What happens if selective colleges change their admission policies? We answer this question by analyzing the world's first introduction of nationally centralized meritocratic admissions in the early twentieth century. We find a persistent meritocracy-equity tradeoff. Compared to the decentralized system, the centralized system admitted more high-achieving applicants, producing a greater number of top elite bureaucrats in the long run. However, this impact came at the distributional cost of equal regional access to elite higher education and career advancement. Several decades later, the meritocratic centralization increased the number of urban-born career elites (e.g., top income earners) relative to rural-born ones. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.04429&r=ure |
| By: | Anne A. Gharaibeh (Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan); Tareq N. Aldela’a (Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan) |
| Abstract: | The global population has grown rapidly, causing urbanization and rural habitat loss. Current research investigates the causes for habitat loss and fragmentation in the Bani-Kinanah County, Irbid, Jordan. It defines loss and fragmentation as natural or anthropogenic separation of green land. It also examines decision-makers' challenges and proposes greenways to reduce habitat loss and fragmentation. The study utilized snowball sampling to interview decision-makers and ArcGIS software to digitize aerial photographs. A literature review and criteria analysis determined greenway and green corridor locations. The study compared digitized aerial photos from 2005 and 2021 for several villages to assess built-up areas, street construction, and ecological natural corridors. Agricultural footprints were also examined. Interviewing the decision-makers revealed that habitat loss and fragmentation are attributed to physical and non-physical factors. they suggested modifications to natural habitat regulations and laws, public awareness of their importance and the causes of fragmentation, and physical interventions to minimize negative effects to prevent habitat fragmentation and loss. This study provides a foundation for understanding habitat fragmentation and loss and proposing solutions. The study recommends community involvement and collaboration with nature/environmental associations to monitor and prevent changes. It also proposes greenways and green corridors to sustain natural habitats. |
| Keywords: | Habitat loss and Fragmentation, greenway planning, rural development, Jordan |
| Date: | 2023–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0295&r=ure |
| By: | Fergusson, Leopoldo; Robinson, James A.; Torres, Santiago |
| Abstract: | We investigate how economic inequality can persist in Latin America in the context of radical falls in political inequality in the last decades. Using data from Colombia, we focus on a critical facet of democratization - the entry of new politicians. We show that initial levels of inequality play a significant role in determining the impact of political entry on local institutions, policy, and development outcomes, which can impact future inequality. A vicious circle emerges whereby policies that reduce inequality are less likely to be adopted and implemented in places with relatively high inequality. We present evidence that this is caused both by the capture of new politicians and barriers to institution and state capacity building, and also by the fact that politicians committed to redistribution are less likely to win in relatively unequal places. Our results, therefore, help to reconcile the persistence of economic inequality with the new political context. |
| Keywords: | political entry; public policy; development |
| JEL: | D72 D78 H40 H50 P00 |
| Date: | 2023–12–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:122083&r=ure |
| By: | Stefano Pietrosanti (Bank of Italy); Edoardo Rainone (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | We present a simple model of a credit market in which firms borrow from multiple banks and credit relationships are simultaneous and interdependent. In this environment, financial and real shocks induce credit reallocation across more and less affected lenders and borrowers. We show that the interdependence introduces a bias in the standard estimates of the effect of shocks on credit relationships. Moreover, we show that the use of firm fixed effects does not solve the issue, may magnify the problem and that the same bias contaminates fixed effects estimates. We propose a novel model that nests commonly used ones, uses the same information set, accounts for and quantifies spillover effects among credit relationships. We document its properties with Monte Carlo simulations and apply it to real credit register data. Evidence from the empirical application suggests that estimates not accounting for spillovers are indeed highly biased. |
| Keywords: | credit markets, shocks propagation, networks, identification |
| JEL: | C30 L14 G21 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1436_23&r=ure |
| By: | Matthieu Bunel; Dominique Meurs; Élisabeth Tovar |
| Abstract: | This article uses a 15-year panel data set from a large French industrial firm to investigate the role of intra-firm job-driven residential mobility on the gender pay gap of executives. We find that job-driven residential mobility is highly profitable for both male and female workers due to a generous mobility bonus policy, but that it does not affect their careers. We also find that female executives are less likely than males to experience job-driven residential mobility, and that it brings higher gains to male relative to female executives. However, these differences between men and women linked to the mobility allowance make limited contribution to the total gender pay gap, which is almost entirely due to other bonuses linked to the positions held. |
| Keywords: | insider econometrics, personnel economics, gender pay gap, job mobility, residential mobility |
| JEL: | J16 J31 M12 R23 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2024-6&r=ure |
| By: | Nicol\'as Ure\~na; Antonio M. Vargas |
| Abstract: | This work studies a parabolic-ODE PDE's system which describes the evolution of the physical capital "$k$" and technological progress "$A$", using a meshless in one and two dimensional bounded domain with regular boundary. The well-known Solow model is extended by considering the spatial diffusion of both capital anf technology. Moreover, we study the case in which no spatial diffusion of the technology progress occurs. For such models, we propound schemes based on the Generalized Finite Difference method and proof the convergence of the numerical solution to the continuous one. Several examples show the dynamics of the model for a wide range of parameters. These examples illustrate the accuary of the numerical method. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.02197&r=ure |
| By: | Giulia Montresor (University of Verona); Lucia Schiavon (Department of Economics, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice; CHILD - Collegio Carlo Alberto, Torino) |
| Abstract: | Exploiting high-frequency vaccination data for COVID-19 and social capital measures at the municipal level in Italy between January and October 2021, this paper estimates the effect of social capital on vaccination compliance. We find that vaccination coverage increased significantly more in municipalities with higher social capital. Results do not differ by gender and the effect is mainly driven by younger generations. Our findings shed light on the role of social capital as a driver of health protective behaviour. |
| Keywords: | Social Capital, Vaccination, Health behaviour, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | I10 I18 D80 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2024:04&r=ure |
| By: | Andrea Cintolesi (Bank of Italy); Edoardo Frattola (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | We study whether female leaders appoint more women to executive positions than their male counterparts. We use mixed-gender close elections in Italian municipalities since 1993 and observe the share of women appointed by mayors to the local government (visible appointments) and to the boards of directors of municipal state-owned enterprises (hidden appointments). We find that when a woman narrowly defeats a man, the share of women appointed to visible positions drops by 5.7 percentage points, while the share of women appointed to hidden positions does not change. The effect does not appear until the early 2000s, when gender issues began to receive attention, and it occurs earlier in regions where public opinion is more sensitive to gender equality. These findings suggest that male leaders appoint more women to visible positions because they are subject to greater scrutiny on gender issues than female leaders. |
| Keywords: | gender, female leaders, close elections, appointments |
| JEL: | J16 D72 M50 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1432_23&r=ure |
| By: | Macmillan, Lindsey; Mcknight, Abigail Ann |
| Abstract: | This paper presents new estimates of recent social mobility in the UK by gender, education and ethnicity, and their intersections. We measure absolute social class mobility using data from the Labour Force Survey 2014-2018. Overall, little change in social mobility occurred over this short period but sub-group analysis using a pooled sample reveals some important new findings. Education is associated with greater chances for upward mobility and lower risk of downward mobility, particularly for men. There are also stark ethnic differences in social mobility prospects in the UK. Opportunities for upward absolute social mobility appear to be more limited for some ethnic groups; particularly Black African men and women, and Black Caribbean men, even after accounting for origin class and disadvantage associated with first generation immigrant status. By contrast, Indian men and women enjoy higher rates of upward social mobility. Risks of downward absolute social mobility are also higher for Black African men and women, and Black Caribbean men, as well as Pakistani/Bangladeshi men and women, even after accounting for origin class and first generation status. But similarities in patterns among those from Black African and Black Caribbean origins mask different initial conditions: much of the reason for the experience of Black African men and women comes down to higher social class origins and a large proportion of first-generation immigrants, whereas for Black Caribbean men, they have low (high) rates of upward (downward) mobility despite lower social class origins and being more settled in terms of immigration status. |
| Keywords: | social mobility; education; gender; ethnicity; intersectionality |
| JEL: | J60 |
| Date: | 2022–05–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:121554&r=ure |
| By: | Hertrich, Tobias Johannes; Brenner, Thomas |
| Abstract: | The concept of “left behind” places encompasses economic, demographic, infrastructural, social and political aspects. Different studies of the left behind place concept focus on different aspects or combinations of these. Hertrich and Brenner (2024) assume an interplay of many aspects that lead to the left behind feeling but emphasize the emerging dynamics of opinion. The purpose of this paper is to analyze this interaction of individual factors in detail in a case study and thus gain a deeper understanding of the processes that presumably play a role in many other regions. Contrary to perception, the labor market region (LMR) Gera is developing dynamically in many parameters. We find that although the reasons for the left behind feeling can be assigned to the pillars of the model, in most cases they relate to the past. We conclude that the political measures and developments in the LMR to date have not had an effect due to the strong formation of opinion based on historical events. In addition, the dynamics of opinion formation play a major role in left behind places, which has so far been neglected in politics. |
| Abstract: | Das Konzept der zurückgelassenen" Orte umfasst wirtschaftliche, demografische, infrastrukturelle, soziale und politische Aspekte. Verschiedene Studien zum Konzept der zurückgelassenen Orte konzentrieren sich auf unterschiedliche Aspekte oder Kombinationen dieser Aspekte. Hertrich und Brenner (2024) gehen von einem Zusammenspiel vieler Aspekte aus, die zum "Left behind"-Gefühl führen. Das Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, dieses Zusammenspiel einzelner Faktoren in einer Fallstudie detailliert zu analysieren und so ein tieferes Verständnis für die Prozesse zu gewinnen, die vermutlich in vielen anderen Regionen eine Rolle spielen. Entgegen der Wahrnehmung entwickelt sich die Arbeitsmarktregion (AMR) Gera in vielen Parametern dynamisch. Wir stellen fest, dass zwar die Gründe den Säulen des Modells zugeordnet werden können, sich aber in den meisten Fällen auf die Vergangenheit beziehen. Wir schließen daraus, dass die politischen Maßnahmen und Entwicklungen in der AMR aufgrund der starken Meinungsbildung aufgrund historischer Ereignisse kaum Wirkung entfalten. Die Dynamik der Meinungsbildung spielt eine große Rolle, die in der Politik bisher vernachlässigt wurde. |
| Keywords: | left behind place, feeling left behind, case study, lagging region, policy measures, regional development, territorial inequality |
| JEL: | O18 O20 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:283319&r=ure |
| By: | Audinga Baltrunaite (Bank of Italy); Enza Maltese (Bank of Italy); Tommaso Orlando (Bank of Italy); Gabriele Rovigatti (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies whether and how much procurement managers matter for effective procurement outcomes. We utilize detailed data on Italian procurement for public works, and on the identity of public officials responsible for their tendering and execution. Our analysis shows that, ceteris paribus and even within the same procuring agency, the managers' identity matters for effective procurement. We further leverage institutional reforms that tightened the eligibility criteria for procurement managing roles as a natural experiment to evaluate the correlation between managerial quality and procurement performance. Key performance indicators include the duration of administrative procedures for tender awarding and the completion time for public works. Our findings suggest a direct positive relationship between the caliber of procurement managers and the expediency of both tender awarding and project completion. |
| Keywords: | public procurement, public works, public managers |
| JEL: | D73 H54 H57 R58 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_803_23&r=ure |
| By: | Bühler Mathias (LMU Munich); Andrew Dickens (Brock University) |
| Abstract: | We document the importance of local information in mass media for the political engagement of citizens and accountability of politicians. We study this in the context of Canada, where until 1958, competition in television markets was suppressed—Canadians received either public or private television content, but never both. While public television provided national-level informational content, private television content was distinctly local and more politically relevant to voters. We find that the introduction of television reduced voter turnout, but that this effect is exclusive to public television districts. Our findings qualify existing knowledge about the political effects of the rollout of new media, by allowing the informational content to vary while holding the media type constant. We support this argument with evidence from parliamentary debates: politicians from districts with private television are more likely to speak and act on behalf of their constituents in Parliament. Our findings thus suggest that politicians are held accountable by relevant media content. |
| JEL: | D72 L82 N42 |
| Date: | 2024–02–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:496&r=ure |
| By: | Tomasz \.Z\k{a}d{\l}o; Adam Chwila |
| Abstract: | The use of machine-learning techniques has grown in numerous research areas. Currently, it is also widely used in statistics, including the official statistics for data collection (e.g. satellite imagery, web scraping and text mining, data cleaning, integration and imputation) but also for data analysis. However, the usage of these methods in survey sampling including small area estimation is still very limited. Therefore, we propose a predictor supported by these algorithms which can be used to predict any population or subpopulation characteristics based on cross-sectional and longitudinal data. Machine learning methods have already been shown to be very powerful in identifying and modelling complex and nonlinear relationships between the variables, which means that they have very good properties in case of strong departures from the classic assumptions. Therefore, we analyse the performance of our proposal under a different set-up, in our opinion of greater importance in real-life surveys. We study only small departures from the assumed model, to show that our proposal is a good alternative in this case as well, even in comparison with optimal methods under the model. What is more, we propose the method of the accuracy estimation of machine learning predictors, giving the possibility of the accuracy comparison with classic methods, where the accuracy is measured as in survey sampling practice. The solution of this problem is indicated in the literature as one of the key issues in integration of these approaches. The simulation studies are based on a real, longitudinal dataset, freely available from the Polish Local Data Bank, where the prediction problem of subpopulation characteristics in the last period, with "borrowing strength" from other subpopulations and time periods, is considered. |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2402.07521&r=ure |