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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Fernando Borraz (Banco Central del Uruguay, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Universidad de la República, & Universidad de Montevideo); Felipe Carozzi (Department of Geography and the Environment. London School of Economics); Nicolás González-Pampillón (What Works Centre for Local Economic Growth - LSE & Institut d’Economia de Barcelona (IEB)); Leandro Zipitría (dECON, FCS, Universidad de la República, Uruguay) |
| Abstract: | We study how retail prices within a city are affected by changes in local housing markets. Our empirical strategy is based on an exogenous shift in the spatial distribution of the construction activity induced by a large-scale, place-based tax exemption in the city of Montevideo. We provide differences-in-differences and instrumental variable estimates showing that the price of retail goods decreases in areas within the city that experience more residential development. We use a multi-product model of imperfect competition to relate this change to an expansion in either product varieties or firm entry. We report evidence in support of the varieties channel, with new development causing an increase in the number of varieties available locally. Our results have implications for urban planning policy and the broader discussion about winners and losers from neighborhood change. |
| Keywords: | Retail Prices, Housing Stock, Neighborhood Change |
| JEL: | R23 R32 |
| Date: | 2021–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ude:wpaper:0821&r= |
| By: | Stojcic, Nebojsa; Pylak, Korneliusz; Jurlina Alibegovic, Dubravka |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of a decade-long large public entrepreneurial infrastructure investment programme in an emerging European economy. Using a unique dataset, we examine the short-run firm, city and inter-city effects of entrepreneurial zones (EZs). EZs have a positive impact on business investment, sales and especially export revenues of firms located within them. Positive economic effects of EZs are limited on host and neighbouring towns and cities, decrease with distance and eventually become negative. This points to the localised nature of EZs effects and their potential for spatial redistribution and clustering of economic activity. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurial zones; spillover effects; firm performance; exports; economic incentives; emerging economies |
| JEL: | L26 O12 R38 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:112395&r= |
| By: | Federica Daniele; Mariona Segu; David Bounie; Youssouf Camara (Université de Cergy-Pontoise, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | Cities are increasingly interested in developing cycling infrastructure. Yet, little is known about the (potentially heterogeneous) economic impact of such investments. We evaluate the economic impact of a large-scale cycling infrastructure investment in Paris, the Plan V´elo. Using geolocated data covering nearly the universe of French card transactions we estimate a positive and statistically significant elasticity of local revenues to bike market access. We find a larger elasticity in areas with smaller and younger establishments. The project increased the non-tradables consumption share of central/less densely populated neighborhoods at the disadvantage of peripheral/more densely populated ones. |
| Keywords: | cities, cycling, infrastructure investment, local economic activity |
| JEL: | D12 L81 L83 R2 R4 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2022-09&r= |
| By: | Adu, Providence; Delmelle, Elizabeth C. |
| Abstract: | While the Fair Housing Act prohibits discrimination in the rental housing market on the basis of race, color, or religion, there exist ample opportunities for landlords to restrict their rental units to individuals with various backgrounds using exclusionary screening practices. These criteria, such as minimum credit scores, criminal history, source of income, or prior evictions, for instance, are often correlated with race and thus hold the potential to perpetuate spatial patterns of racial and income segregation. In this article, we analyzed online rental listings from Zillow and Craigslist in a case study of Charlotte, North Carolina to examine the proliferation and spatial variation in exclusionary criteria by neighborhood race and income. Overall, we found criminal background, credit score, housing voucher, eviction, and minimum income restrictions to be greater in poorer and minority neighborhoods. However, when distinguishing by platform, we found the presence of corporate landlords, who did not advertise on Craigslist, to be a significant driver of these results. Corporate landlords represented nearly 60 percent of advertisements on Zillow and were more common in poorer and minority neighborhoods - they also systematically included nearly all restrictions. Craigslist, by contrast, had fewer criteria that correlated with race and income. |
| Date: | 2022–02–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:8g4sv&r= |
| By: | HAMAGUCHI Nobuaki; KONDO Keisuke |
| Abstract: | This study examines the extent to which spatial gaps in real minimum wages affect the location choice in job search of new high school graduates in Japan. We exploit the exogenous shock related to the 2007 amendment of the Minimum Wage Act which expanded variations in real minimum wage between urban and rural prefectures. We propose Bartik-like instruments for differential exposure to these shocks to perform a causal inference of the impact of spatial gaps in real minimum wages on the location choice in job search of unskilled young workers. Our estimation results show that the real minimum wage gaps partially motivate job search outside resident prefectures. Our counterfactual evaluation for the uniform minimum wage across prefectures shows that approximately 10-25% of new high school graduates in rural prefectures seek jobs outside their resident prefectures even under the uniform minimum wage setting. This result suggests that the simple correlation overestimates the impact of minimum wage on outmigration because other factors than wages such as urban amenity may explain spatial behavior in job search. |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:22022&r= |
| By: | Mikula, Stepan (Masaryk University); Reggiani, Tommaso G. (Cardiff University) |
| Abstract: | Through a correspondence study, this paper investigates whether employers discriminate job applicants based on their living conditions. Exploiting the natural setting provided by a Rapid Re-housing Program, we sent 1,347 job applications for low-qualified front-desk jobs in Brno, Czech Republic. The resumes exogenously differed in only one main aspect represented by the address of the applicants, signaling both the quality of the neighborhood and the quality of the housing conditions in which they were living. We found that while the higher quality of the district has a strong effect in increasing the hiring chances (+20%) the actual improvement of the living conditions standards, per se, does not generate any significant positive effect. |
| Keywords: | correspondence study, labor discrimination, housing conditions, Rapid Re-housing |
| JEL: | C93 J08 J71 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15142&r= |
| By: | Fiala, Nathan; Garcia-Hernandez, Ana; Narula, Kritika; Prakash, Nishith |
| Abstract: | Reducing the gender gap in education is a primary goal for many countries. Two major challenges for many girls are the distance to school and their safety when commuting to school. In Zambia, we studied the impact of providing a bicycle to a school-going girl who lives more than 3 km from the school. We randomized whether a girl received a bicycle with a small cost to her family to cover replacement parts, a bicycle where these costs are covered by the program, and therefore is zero cost to the family, or a control group. One year after the intervention, we find that the bicycle reduced average commuting time to school by 35%, reduced late arrival by 66%, and decreased absenteeism by 27%. We find continued improvement in girls' attendance and reduction in dropouts two, three, and four years after the intervention. We also find evidence of improved math test scores, girls expressing higher feelings of control over their lives and, for those who received bicycles with a small cost to her family, higher levels of aspirations, self-image, and a desire to delay marriage and pregnancy. Heterogeneity analysis by distance to school shows an inverted U-shape for most of the schooling and empowerment results, suggesting greater impact for girls that live further away from school. These results suggest that empowerment outcomes worked through increased attendance in school. |
| Keywords: | Girls’,education,attendance,dropout,grade transition,test scores,bicycles,female aspiration,female empowerment,safety,Zambia |
| JEL: | H42 I21 I25 J16 O15 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:943&r= |
| By: | INOUE Atsushi; TANAKA Ryuichi |
| Abstract: | We examine whether and how teachers' major fields of study affect students' achievement, exploiting the within-student variation across subfields in natural science (i.e., physics, chemistry, biology, and earth science). Using middle-school students' data from the Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study and controlling student-teacher fixed effects, we find that teachers with college majors in the natural sciences improved students' achievement of subfields in the natural sciences corresponding to their own subfields of college majors. Teaching practices explain about half of the effect of teachers' major fields, and the majority of the effects through teaching practices is accounted for by teachers' preparation for teaching science topics. The results are robust to potential endogenous matching between students and teachers. |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:22004&r= |
| By: | Jaiswal, Sreeja; Bensch, Gunther; Navalkar, Aniket; Jayaraman, T. |
| Abstract: | Railways are a key infrastructure that facilitates trade and regional integration with potential consequences on local development and the environment in hitherto backward regions. In this article, we study the medium- to long-term socio-economic and environmental infrastructure impacts for the case of the Konkan Railway, which is one of the biggest railway construction endeavours in independent India. We employ a quasi-experimental mixed-methods design to explore the impact of the Konkan Railway on population, workforce composition and land cover types using census and satellite data. We find that the Konkan Railway led to an increase in the female-to-male sex ratio and a negative effect on the share of male workers among the working population. In combination with qualitative evidence, this suggests that the railway access has reinforced the pre-existing pattern of high levels of male migration. We also find an increase in population and the workforce participation rate without disparate workforce effects across sectors suggesting that the railway had moderate effects across the local economies. In terms of land use, the analysis could not substantiate concerns regarding substantive loss of forest cover induced by the railways. The findings encourage policy makers - in assessing the effects of transport infrastructure - to take into consideration the impact on migration, labour mobility and labour market outcomes in sending and receiving regions. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure,railway access,migration,impact evaluation,mixed methods,India |
| JEL: | N75 O18 O40 R11 R41 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:936&r= |
| By: | Volker, Jamey; Thigpen, Calvin |
| Abstract: | Accessory dwelling units (ADUs) are small, self-contained housing units that share the same lot as a primary dwelling, usually a single-family detached house. In places with major housing shortages ADUs can be an efficient and cost-effective way to increase supply. Over the last few years, the California Legislature has passed laws to reduce barriers to permitting ADUs, and some California cities have liberalized their regulations even further. However, loosening ADU regulations—particularly those related to parking—can spark neighborhood opposition to ADUs. Recent surveys indicate that both homeowners and local government staff remain concerned that ADUs will overwhelm neighborhood parking supplies. Whether these concerns are justified is unclear. A UC Davis-led research team surveyed 396 homeowners in Sacramento and collected lot size and other data to investigate whether the total effective parking supply of the average single-family detached home is sufficient to accommodate the vehicles associated with the residents of both a primary dwelling and a potential ADU. This policy brief summarizes the findings from that research and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Parking, Garage, Accessory Dwelling Units, Single-Family Home |
| Date: | 2022–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2rv3k8g0&r= |
| By: | Mette Foged (Mette Foged); Cynthia van der Werf (Cynthia van der Werf) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether proximity to language classes raises refugees’ language proficiency and improves their social and economic integration. Our identification strategy leverages the opening, closing and gradual expansion of local language training centers in Denmark, as well as the quasi-random assignment of the refugees to locations with varying proximity to a language training center. First, we show that refugees’ distance from the assigned language training center is as good as random. Second, we show that language skills decrease monotonically with commuting time such that a one-hour decrease in commuting time increases fluency in the Danish language by 4 to 6 percent relative to the sample mean. The exogenous variation in language proficiency generates substantial positive effects on post language training human capital acquisition and on the integration of the refugees in the local communities where they were initially placed, as measured by the lower exit rates from those same communities and lower mobility to the largest, most immigrant-dense, cities in Denmark. |
| Keywords: | refugee integration, language skills |
| JEL: | J24 J60 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2210&r= |
| By: | Michaels, Guy; Lin, Yatang; McDermott, Thomas K. J. |
| Abstract: | Construction on low elevation coastal zones is risky for both residents and taxpayers who bail them out, especially when sea levels are rising. We study this construction using spatially disaggregated data on the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts. We document nine stylized facts, including a sizeable rise in the share of coastal housing built on flood-prone land from 1990-2010, which concentrated particularly in densely populated areas. To explain our findings, we develop a model of a monocentric coastal city, which we then use to explore the consequences of sea level rise and government policies. |
| Keywords: | cities; climate change; sea level rise |
| JEL: | R11 Q54 R14 |
| Date: | 2021–04–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:114428&r= |
| By: | Roy, Avipsa; Law, Mankin |
| Abstract: | Electric vehicles (EV) are an emerging mode of transportation that has the potential to reshape the transportation sector by significantly reducing carbon emissions thereby promoting a cleaner environment and pushing the boundaries of climate progress. Nevertheless, there remain significant hurdles to the widespread adoption of electric vehicles in the United States ranging from the high cost of EVs to the inequitable placement of EV charging stations (EVCS). A deeper understanding of the underlying complex interactions of social, economic, and demographic factors which may lead to such emerging disparities in EVCS placements is, therefore, necessary to mitigate accessibility issues and improve EV usage among people of all ages and abilities. In this study, we develop a machine learning framework to examine spatial disparities in EVCS placements by using a predictive approach. We first identify the essential socioeconomic factors that may contribute to spatial disparities in EVCS access. Second, using these factors along with ground truth data from existing EVCS placements we predict future ECVS density at multiple spatial scales using machine learning algorithms and compare their predictive accuracy to identify the most optimal spatial resolution for our predictions. Finally, we compare the most accurately predicted EVCS placement density with a spatial inequity indicator to quantify how equitably these placements would be for Orange County, California. Our method achieved the highest predictive accuracy (94.9%) of EVCS placement density at a spatial resolution of 3 km using Random Forests. Our results indicate that a total of 74.18% of predicted EVCS placements in Orange County will lie within a low spatial equity zone – indicating populations with the lowest accessibility may require the highest investments in EVCS placements. Within the low spatial equity areas, 14.86% of the area will have a low density of predicted EVCS placements, 50.32% will have a medium density of predicted EVCS placement, and only 9% tend to have high EVCS placements. The findings from this study highlight a generalizable framework to quantify inequities in EVCS placements that will enable policymakers to identify underserved communities and facilitate targeted infrastructure investments for widespread EV usage and adoption for all. |
| Date: | 2022–02–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:hvw2t&r= |
| By: | ViforJ, Rachel Ong; Singh, Ranjodh; Baker, Emma; Bentley, Rebecca; Hewton, Jack |
| Abstract: | This research examines how the bi-directional relationship between housing precariousness and wellbeing varies across population subgroups and over time; sheds light on the dimensions of housing precariousness that affect wellbeing, and vice versa; and considers how policy interventions to effectively minimise negative impacts of precarious housing on wellbeing. |
| Date: | 2022–02–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ezf83&r= |
| By: | Hanushek, Eric Alan; Jacobs, Babs; Schwerdt, Guido; van der Velden, Rolf; Vermeulen, Stan; Wiederhold, Simon |
| Abstract: | The extensive literature on intergenerational mobility highlights the importance of family linkages but fails to provide credible evidence about the underlying family factors that drive the pervasive correlations. We employ a unique combination of Dutch survey and registry data that links math and language skills across generations. We identify the connection between cognitive skills of parents and their children by exploiting within-family between-subject variation in these skills. A causal interpretation of the between-subject estimates is reinforced by novel IV estimation that isolates variation in parent cognitive skills due to teacher and classroom peer quality. The between-subject and IV estimates of the key intergenerational persistence parameter are strikingly similar and close at about 0.1. Finally, we show the strong influence of family skill transmission on children's choices of STEM fields. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility,parent-child skill transmission,causality,STEM |
| JEL: | I24 I26 J12 J24 J62 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cexwps:09&r= |
| By: | Stefano Falcone |
| Abstract: | Property rights are a central feature of well-functioning economic systems. By shaping incentives to participate in economic activities, property rights lead to investment, development and growth. However, the exercise of property rights over assets necessary to our daily lives may come at a social cost. Employing quasi-experimental designs, I show that the exclusion of individuals from secure access to land and housing leads to the forcible appropriation of these assets for subsistence purposes. First, the expansion of commercial farming induced by a market-oriented reform in the mid-90s in Brazil led to an increase in cases of contested land. Results suggest that the effect on land disputes is mainly driven by the reduction of land informally accessible to local communities. Second, in the same context, local organizations facilitated political mobilization and this latter advanced land redistribution by the government. Third, the adoption of a policy inducing evictions in Ohio's cities from 2000 to 2016 led to an increase in property crime over potentially inhabitable assets. Findings seems to be driven by evicted women losing employment, hence leading to a reduction in income. Overall, this dissertation shows that individuals excluded from access to land and housing are pushed to employ force to use these assets. |
| Keywords: | Conflict, Contested Land, Property Rights, Property Crime |
| Date: | 2021–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/333197&r= |
| By: | Julio César Daly |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the causal impact of the Venezuelan migration on the price level of goods and services in Colombian host cities. The inflow of migrants to a city have a demand shock through an increase in consumption levels, and a supply shock through a decrease in the production costs. I use an Enclave instrumental variable strategy, which exploits the tendency of migrants to settle in places with previous migrant networks. I find that the Venezuelan migration increases averages prices in the non-tradable sector and has no effect on the price of food, tradable goods, transport and energy sectors. I provide evidence that this result may be related to the effect migration has on the price of education and housing. My estimates suggests that a 1 percentage point increase in the migration rate is associated with an 0.913% average increase in the price of the nontradables. This result is consistent with a demand side shock. |
| Keywords: | Migration, Prices, Enclave, IV. |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J23 |
| Date: | 2021–03–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000089:019102&r= |
| By: | Eberle, Mira; Oberrauch, Luis |
| Abstract: | A large body of literature documents that school-based financial education generally improves financial knowledge, yet little is known about the effect of instruction in the broader economic domain. This paper evaluates the effect of a curriculum reform introducing mandatory economic education on economic competence and knowledge in German lower-track schools, in which students have lower socio-economic status and end up having lower incomes when entering the workforce. While we find small but positive effects on basic economic knowledge and interest in economic matters, we observe no effects on competences, i.e., factual and procedural knowledge in the economic domain. Quantile regressions reveal that the effect on students’ knowledge is widely consistent across the entire distribution. With regard to socio-demographic characteristics, we observe strong gender differences already before adulthood. |
| Keywords: | Economic education,economic knowledge,gender gap |
| JEL: | A21 I21 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:250909&r= |
| By: | Vonnahme, Christina |
| Abstract: | The integration of foreign origin students in host countries' educational systems has mostly been studied based on cross-sectional data. In contrast, I use data from a national longitudinal education study to calculate achievement gaps in vocabulary, reading and math tests for foreign origin relative to native students over the school career in Germany for the years 2010 to 2018. In line with previous research, the raw gaps are substantial and can be explained to one to two thirds by school characteristics and the socio-economic background of the child. Taking a longitudinal perspective reveals that both raw and conditional gaps slightly decrease over several parts of the school career. However, the unexplained part of the decomposed gaps tends to increase as children grow older. The findings demonstrate that initial disadvantages of foreign origin students reduce rather than accumulate, but partly prevail until the end of school. |
| Keywords: | Integration,achievement gaps,educational performance,immigrants |
| JEL: | I24 J15 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:932&r= |
| By: | Berbée, Paul; Braun, Sebastian Till; Franke, Richard |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that 19th-century industrialization is an important determinant of the significant changes in Germany's economic geography observed in recent decades. Using novel data on regional economic activity, we establish that almost half of West Germany's 163 labor markets experienced a reversal of fortune between 1926 and 2019, i.e., they moved from the lower to the upper median of the income distribution or vice versa. Economic decline is concentrated in northern Germany, economic ascent in the south. Exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in access to coal, we show that early industrialization turned from an advantage for economic development to a burden after World War II. The (time-varying) effect of industrialization explains most of the decline in regional inequality observed in the 1960s and 1970s and about half of the current North-South gap in economic development. |
| Keywords: | Industrialization,Economic development,Regional Inequality |
| JEL: | N91 N92 O14 R12 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:250876&r= |
| By: | E. Jason Baron; Brian Jacob; Joseph P. Ryan |
| Abstract: | Roughly one in four juveniles arrested in the U.S. spend time in a detention center prior to their court date. To study the consequences of this practice for youth, we link the universe of individual public school records in Michigan to juvenile and adult criminal justice records. Using a combination of exact matching and inverse probability weighting, we estimate that juvenile detention leads to a 31% decline in the likelihood of graduating high school and a 25% increase in the likelihood of being arrested as an adult. Falsification tests suggest the results are not driven by unobserved heterogeneity. |
| JEL: | H76 I2 K42 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29861&r= |
| By: | Lavy, V (University of Warwick, Hebrew University, and NBER); Goldstein, Y (Tel Aviv University) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the short-run and longer-term effects of gifted children programs (GCP) in high schools in Israel. The program tracks the most talented students into gifted children classes, starting 10th grade. They receive more resources in smaller classes, a unique curriculum, access to high-quality teachers, and courses in universities. We use test scores in exams that measure cognitive achievements or intelligence and ability, measured in different ages, to select a comparison group of equally gifted students from other cities where GCP was not offered at the time. Based on administrative data, we follow 22 cohorts of GCP participants who graduated high school in 1992-2013. We measure treatment effects on outcomes, ranging from high school to the labor market in their 30s and 40s. Remarkably, the results we obtain do not vary when using alternative measures of ability or in the age, they are assessed. The evidence on the impact of GCP on academic achievements in high school is mixed, some compulsory subjects are affected negatively, and fewer are affected positively. However, these estimates are very small, implying a tiny effect size. These results stand in contrast to the abundance of educational resources enjoyed by GCP participants, in addition to better peers in terms of SES background and outcomes. We discuss in this context the objective of the program to widen the scope and area of interest of its participants beyond the regular curriculum. We also highlight the potential adverse effect of the Big-Fish-Little Pond Effect. In the longer run, we find meaningful positive effects of GCP on higher education attainment. All gifted children achieve a BA degree, but a much higher share of GCP participants graduate with a double major. The effect of getting a Ph.D. is also positive, driven by more Ph.D. degrees in Elite Universities. GCP participants study more math, computer, and physical sciences but engage less in engineering programs. The net effect on STEM degrees is, therefore, zero. However, a much higher share of GCP participants graduated with two STEM majors. This evidence, along with the significant effect on a double major, suggests that GCP enhances the impact of “multipotentiality,†which characterizes many gifted adolescents. We find no effect of GCP on employment and earnings. Nor do we find that they work more than other equally talented children in the various sectors of the knowledge economy: hi-tech manufacturing, hi-tech services, and academic institutions. Finally, we examine marriage and family formation patterns as mediating effects and find no discerned GCP effects. In the short-term, medium-run, and into adulthood, these comprehensive sets of results are not qualitatively different for females and males gifted children who participated in GCP. Treatment heterogeneity by giftedness level allows us to compare our results to earlier studies that used regression discontinuity designs to identify GCP effects on only marginally eligible students for such programs. We find meaningful differences in treatment effect between marginal and inframarginal gifted children, suggesting that it is essential to examine GCP’s impact over the whole spectrum of Giftedness. Importantly, we find that GCP similarly affects low and high-SES students. Half of the students among the six youngest cohorts in our sample started the program in middle school, while the others did that in high school. We find no differences in GCP effect on high school and university outcomes by the length of the program. |
| Keywords: | JEL Classification: |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:609&r= |
| By: | Van Reenen, John |
| Abstract: | If innovation is to be subsidized, a natural place to start is to increase the quantity and quality of human capital. Innovation, after all, begins with people. Simply stimulating the “demand side” through R&D subsidies and tax breaks may only drive up the price, rather than the volume of research activity. By contrast, increasing the supply of potential inventors can both directly increase innovation and reduce its cost. This paper examines the evidence on human capital policies for stimulating innovation such as expanding the home-grown workforce, fostering immigration, boosting universities and reducing barriers to entry into inventor careers, especially for under-represented groups. The evidence suggests targeting high ability but disadvantaged potential inventors at an early age is likely to have the largest long-run effects on growth. |
| Keywords: | innovation; R&D; intellectual property; tax; competition |
| JEL: | O31 O32 |
| Date: | 2021–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:114433&r= |
| By: | Hugo Salas Rodríguez (IPA); Pedro I. Hancevic (CIDE) |
| Abstract: | Approximately 70 countries worldwide implement a daylight-saving time (DST) policy: setting their clocks forward in the spring and back in the fall. The main purpose of this practice is to save on electricity. However, by artificially changing the distribution of daylight, this practice can have unforeseen effects. This document provides an analysis of the impact of DST on traffic accidents in Mexico, using two empirical strategies: regression discontinuity design (RDD) and difference-in-differences (DD). The main finding is that setting the clocks forward an hour significantly lowers the total number of traffic accidents in the country’s metropolitan areas. However, there is no clear effect on the number of fatal traffic accidents. |
| Keywords: | : traffic accidents, daylight saving time, difference-in-differences, regression discontinuity, municipalities in Mexico |
| JEL: | O18 R41 D04 |
| Date: | 2022–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:106&r= |
| By: | Oberrauch, Luis; Kaiser, Tim; Seeber, Günther |
| Abstract: | We present a 12-item scale measuring the cognitive component of economic competence and document the psychometric properties of the scale. Using a data set with more than 12,000 secondary school students in Germany, the scale shows high discriminatory power and covers a wide range of ability levels. Analyses of `Differential Item Functioning´ show no item bias across key demographic characteristics, and scores show meaningful associations with scores obtained from adjacent test instruments. Student-level correlates mirror estimates documented in earlier literature on economic and financial literacy as well as results relying on a more extensive scale with over 30 items. The presented short scale enables researchers and practitioners to efficiently measure economic competence of youth. |
| Keywords: | economic competence,economic literacy,IRT,measurement |
| JEL: | A21 I21 G53 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:251057&r= |
| By: | Briole, Simon (Paris School of Economics); Gurgand, Marc (Paris School of Economics); Maurin, Eric (Paris School of Economics); McNally, Sandra (University of Surrey); Ruiz-Valenzuela, Jenifer (London School of Economics); Santín, Daniel (Universidad Carlos III de Madrid) |
| Abstract: | With the rise of polarization and extremism, the question of how best to transmit civic virtues across generations is more acute than ever. In this paper, we test the hypothesis that schools can be the place for this transmission by empowering students and gathering them around concrete and democratically chosen objectives. We draw on an RCT implemented in a large sample of middle schools in three European countries. The evaluated program leads students to carry out collective citizenship projects in their immediate communities under the supervision of teachers trained in student-centered teaching methods. The program significantly increases student altruism, their political self-efficacy as well as the quality of their relationship with their classmates and their respect for the rules of school life (less sanctions and absenteeism). In all three countries, the benefits are greater for students with the highest level of altruism and interest in politics at baseline. Investments made at an early age appear to be complement to those made during adolescence for the production of civic virtues. |
| Keywords: | citizenship, education, teaching practices, project-based learning, RCT, youth |
| JEL: | I20 I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15141&r= |
| By: | Luis Ángel Monroy-Gómez-Franco,; Roberto Vélez Grajales; Luis Felipe López-Calva |
| Abstract: | This paper use a new database for Mexico to model the possible long-run effects of the pandemic on learning. First, based on the framework of Neidhöfer et al. (2021), the authors estimate the loss of schooling due to the transition from in-person to remote learning using data from the ESRU Survey on Social Mobility in Mexico 2017 (ESRU-EMOVI-2017), census data and national statistics of COVID-19 incidence. Secondly, the authors estimate the potential long-run consequences of this shock through a calibrated learning profile for five Mexican regions following Kaffenberger and Pritchett (2021). Assuming the distance learning policy adopted by the Mexican government is entirely effective, the results indicate that a learning loss equivalent to the learning during a third of a school year in the short run translates into a learning loss equivalent to an entire school year further up the educational career of students. On the other hand, if the policy was ineffective, the short-run loss increases to an entire school year and becomes a loss of two years of learning in the long run. |
| Keywords: | Temas selectos |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:auk:ecosoc:2021_08&r= |
| By: | Bizopoulou, Aspasia (VATT, Helsinki); Megalokonomou, Rigissa (University of Queensland); Simion, Stefania (University of Bristol) |
| Abstract: | In several countries, students who fail end-of-high-school high-stakes exams are faced with the choice of retaking them or forgoing postsecondary education. We explore exogenous variation generated by a 2006 policy that imposed a performance threshold for admission into postsecondary education in Greece to estimate the effect of retaking exams on a range of outcomes. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and novel administrative data, we find that low-achieving students who retake national exams improve their performance by half a standard deviation, but do not receive offers from higher quality postsecondary placements. The driving mechanism for these results stems from increased competition. |
| Keywords: | postsecondary education admission, low-achieving students, exogenous policy, fuzzy regression discontinuity design |
| JEL: | J16 I21 I23 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15139&r= |
| By: | Mike Cassidy (Princeton University); Janet Currie (Princeton University) |
| Abstract: | Housing is one of the areas where it may be most critical for poor people to have access to legal representation in civil cases. We study the roll-out of New York City’s Universal Access to Counsel program (UA), using detailed address-level housing court data from 2016 to 2019. The program, which became law in August 2017, offers free legal representation in housing court to tenants with income at or below 200 percent of the federal poverty guideline. We find that tenants who gain access to lawyers are less likely to be subject to possessory judgments, face smaller monetary judgments, and are less likely to have eviction warrants issued against them. Lawyers have larger effects in poorer places and in those with larger shares of non-citizens. UA also reduces executed evictions in these locations. Our results support the idea that legal representation in civil procedures can have an important positive impact on the lives of poor people. |
| Keywords: | Housing, Legal, Universal Access to Counsel program, Legal Representation |
| JEL: | R39 K40 K49 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pri:econom:2022-4&r= |
| By: | Abhay Aneja; Guo Xu |
| Abstract: | We use newly digitized records from the U.S. Post Office to study how strengthening state capacity affects public service delivery and innovation in over 2,800 cities between 1875-1905. Exploiting the gradual expansion of a major civil service reform, cities with a reformed postal office experience fewer errors in delivery, lower unit costs and an increase in mail handled per worker. This improvement goes with greater information flow, as measured by increased volumes of mail and newspapers. We observe more joint patenting involving inventors and businesses from different cities, suggesting that a more effective postal service contributed to innovation and growth during the Gilded Age. |
| JEL: | D73 M5 N4 N41 O3 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29852&r= |
| By: | Gabe, Todd |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the economic performance of U.S. cities (i.e., metropolitan areas) and states over the period immediately before and throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. The U.S. economy experienced a 14 percent reduction in year-over-year employment from April 2019 to 2020, and the nation’s employment level in December 2021 was about two percent below its employment two years earlier. The economic performance of U.S. regions varied widely at the beginning of the pandemic (e.g., year-over-year employment growth of U.S. metropolitan areas ranged from a 3 percent to 35 percent decline between April 2019 and 2020) and the months that followed. In general, the regions that experienced the least severe employment impacts associated with COVID-19 had considerably more robust employment in December 2021 compared with pre-pandemic levels two years earlier. Perhaps the most striking feature of the analysis presented in this study is how the past performance of U.S. regions had very little bearing on the relative impacts of COVID-19 on state and metropolitan area employment declines. In other words, the economic impacts of COVID-19 were almost totally unrelated to the economic performance of regions between 2011 and 2018. By the end of 2021, however, the pre-pandemic patterns of a high correlation between past and future employment growth rates began to reemerge. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Employment Growth; U.S. States; U.S. Metropolitan Areas |
| JEL: | I19 R1 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2022–03–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:112437&r= |
| By: | Julia Lyskawa; Seth Morgan; Betsy Keating; Armando Yañez; Madhavi Jayanthi; Russell Gersten; Joseph Dimino; Mary Jo Taylor; Rebecca Newman-Gonchar; Sarah Krowka; Kelly Haymond; Samantha Wavell |
| Abstract: | This practice guide provides four evidence-based recommendations that teachers can use to deliver reading intervention to meet the needs of their students. |
| Keywords: | Reading Intervention, reading instruction, literacy, reading difficulties, reading disabilities, comprehension, fluency, decoding, comprehension monitoring, world knowledge, word knowledge, vocabulary, stretch text, grade 4, grade 5, grade 6, grade 7, grade 8, grade 9 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:637afdee9be2420c91adc641b669bd40&r= |
| By: | Eyles, Andrew; Blanden, Jo; Machin, Stephen |
| Abstract: | Prior research on trends in intergenerational mobility in economic status has focused chiefly on income and earnings. There is hardly any research on trends in intergenerational wealth transmission, at least in part because of the rarity of cross-generational data with wealth measures good enough for a crosstime analysis to be undertaken. In the intergenerational setting, housing tenure data is more widely available than good data on total wealth. This paper uses cross-time changes in intergenerational associations in home ownership to generate evidence on trends in intergenerational wealth mobility. Both home ownership and the value of main residence are shown to be strongly associated with wealth accumulation. The strength of the intergenerational link in home ownership in the UK has grown over time and, as parental home ownership displays a strong relationship with an individual’s future wealth, this can be informative about trends in intergenerational wealth transmission. Taken together, the results indicate that intergenerational wealth transmission has strengthened over time in Britain. |
| Keywords: | housing; intergenerational mobility; wealth; cohorts |
| JEL: | R31 J11 D31 J62 |
| Date: | 2021–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:114426&r= |
| By: | Circella, Giovanni; Jaller, Miguel; Sun, Ran; Qian, Xiaodong; Alemi, Farzad |
| Abstract: | California sits at the epicenter of self-driving vehicle technology development, with numerous companies testing connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) in the state. CAVs have the potential to improve safety and increase mobility for children, the elderly, and people with disabilities. These vehicles will operate more efficiently, use less space on the roadway, and cause fewer crashes, all of which are expected to relieve traffic congestion. However, CAVs will also likely bring about complex changes to travel demand, urban design, and land use. The degree to which these changes will affect vehicle miles traveled, energy use, and air pollution in California is unknown and could have wideranging implications for the state’s ability to meet its climate goals. Researchers at the University of California, Davis investigated the range of potential impacts that rapid adoption of CAVs in California might have on vehicle miles traveled and emissions. The researchers estimated the vehicle miles traveled and emissions of each scenario using a statewide travel demand model, emissions factors from California agencies, and assumptions derived from the scientific literature and expert input. This policy brief summarizes the findings from that research and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Autonomous vehicles, Connected vehicles, Energy consumption, Forecasting, Impact, Modal split, Pollutants, Pricing, Simulation, Travel demand, Vehicle miles of travel, Zero emission vehicles |
| Date: | 2022–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0rb439tv&r= |
| By: | von Borries, Alvaro (CIRCLE, Lund University); Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University); Lundquist, Karl-Johan (CIRCLE, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we explore the (changing) spatial concentration of low-income jobs throughout the last 30 years in Sweden, a period that has been characterized by the rise of what has become known as the knowledge economy. In particular, we describe (map) and try to understand what drives the concentration of low-income jobs in certain regions and how that has changed in time. We observe an overall decrease of the prevalence of low-income jobs during the last three decades. Moreover, regions have also converged, meaning that the great differentiator between places is less and less about how many low-income jobs they host, but how many very well paid there are. We also find that labor market polarization does not seem to lead to a greater incidence of low-income jobs when measured against a threshold related to the national income distribution, but, as expected, it does when we move towards a regional threshold, thus accounting for regional income differences. Finally, regions with a larger knowledge economy have tended to have a lower incidence of low-income jobs, both measured with respect to the national and to the regional income. This points towards the knowledge economy being a source of regional prosperity either through the upgrading of jobs or rising the wages of low- income workers. Despite all the discourse about the degradation of the Nordic model, we provide some evidence for it to be still working in Sweden under this new and complex knowledge-dominated era. |
| Keywords: | low-income jobs; regional development; inequality; knowledge economy; labor market polarization |
| JEL: | D31 J21 P25 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2022–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2022_004&r= |
| By: | KIYOTA Kozo; NAKAJIMA Kentaro; TAKIZAWA Miho |
| Abstract: | This study examines the local labor market effects of offshoring on manufacturing activities. One of the contributions of this study is that it develops matched foreign affiliate-domestic parent-domestic plant data on Japan from 1995 to 2016 to measure the manufacturing employment and offshoring of manufacturing activities at the local level. Our results indicate that while exposure to Chinese import competition negatively affects local manufacturing employment, offshoring exposure contributes to mitigating such negative effects. We find that a 10 percent increase in foreign manufacturing employment drives a 1 percent increase in local employment. We also find that offshoring exposure has a significantly positive effect on the employment of non-offshoring firms in the same local labor market. Our results indicate that offshoring has a negative impact on local employment. |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:22013&r= |
| By: | Duygu Buyukyazici; Leonardo Mazzoni; Massimo Riccaboni; Francesco Serti |
| Abstract: | We quantify the general equilibrium effects on economic growth of improving the quality of institutions at the regional level in the context of the implementation of the European Cohesion Policy for the European Union and the UK. The direct impact of changes in the quality of government is integrated in a general equilibrium model to analyse the system-wide economic effects resulting from additional endogenous mechanisms and feedback effects. The results reveal a significant direct effect as well as considerable system-wide benefits from improved government quality on economic growth. A small 5% increase in government quality across European Union regions increases the impact of Cohesion investment by up to 7% in the short run and 3% in the long run. The exact magnitude of the gains depends on various local factors, including the initial endowments of public capital, the level of government quality, and the degree of persistence over time. inked to higher mortality. Accounting for a host of potential confounders, we find robust support that regions with lower levels of both social and political trust are associated with higher excess mortality, along with citizen polarization in institutional trust in some models. On the ideological make-up regional parliaments, we find that, ceteris paribus, those that lean more ‘tan’ on the ‘gal-tan’ spectrum yielded higher excess mortality. Moreover, although we find limited evidence of elite polarization driving excess deaths on the left-right or gal-tan spectrums, partisan differences on the attitudes towards the EU demonstrated significantly higher deaths, which we argue proxies for (anti)populism. Overall, we find that both lower citizen-level trust and populist elite-level ideological characteristics of regional parliaments are associated with higher excess mortality in European regions during the first wave of the pandemic. |
| Keywords: | Skill relatedness; Economic complexity; Industrial specialisation; Regional capabilities; Regional diversification. |
| JEL: | J24 O18 R10 R23 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2207&r= |
| By: | Fanny Magnoni (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon); Pierre Valette-Florence (UGA INP IAE - Grenoble Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes - Grenoble INP - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology - UGA - Université Grenoble Alpes); Virginie de Barnier (CERGAM - Centre d'Études et de Recherche en Gestion d'Aix-Marseille - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - UTLN - Université de Toulon) |
| Abstract: | Based on branding and place branding frameworks, we build a comprehensive model which allows the unraveling of the mechanism by which behavioral intentions toward a place brand are formed. Two serial mediation hypotheses are proposed and tested from the perspective of (prospective) residents. Conducted on a sample of residents of a French city (N = 571), this study shows that place brand heritage and place brand experience positively influence place brand equity, which in turn positively influences place attachment. Place attachment then influences residents' behavioral intentions toward the city. Thanks to a Bayesian assessment of the uncertainty and plausibility of competing mediation models, the results also validate our more parsimonious relationships network, hence reinforcing the mediating role of both place brand equity and place attachment. Our findings also provide local governments and city brand managers with recommendations regarding how to maintain and enhance relationships with residents. |
| Keywords: | Behavioral intentions,Place brand,Residents,Serial mediations,Comprehensive model |
| Date: | 2021–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03591700&r= |
| By: | Barbara Biasi; Song Ma |
| Abstract: | This paper documents differences across higher-education courses in the coverage of frontier knowledge. Comparing the text of 1.7M syllabi and 20M academic articles, we construct the "education-innovation gap," a syllabus’s relative proximity to old and new knowledge. We show that courses differ greatly in the extent to which they cover frontier knowledge. More selective and better funded schools, and those enrolling socio-economically advantaged students, teach more frontier knowledge. Instructors play a big role in shaping course content; research-active instructors teach more frontier knowledge. Students from schools teaching more frontier knowledge are more likely to complete a PhD, produce more patents, and earn more after graduation. |
| JEL: | I23 I24 I26 J24 O33 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29853&r= |
| By: | Pedro Elosegui (BCRA); Marcos Herrera-Gómez (IELDE - UNSa/CONICET); Jorge Colina ((Instituto para el Desarrollo Social Argentino) |
| Abstract: | This paper is part of a broader agenda and constitutes a first step to empirically understand the main determinants of the inter-provincial trade in Argentina. We use a novel database of regional trade flows between the 24 Argentinean provinces for 2017. Using a structural gravity model and novel econometric techniques we analyze the main variables influencing trade between the provinces. In addition to the traditional variables of the canonical gravity model we add some variables of interest that ca possible affect trade between sub national jurisdictions. With an especial focus in financial flows we analyze the impact of co participation transfers, income distribution and household’s payment methods, among other variables that may be correlated with formal trade. Additionally, we analyze the potential impact of trade concentration in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires (CABA) and Buenos Aires. Trade flows are analyzed considering both, origin and destination. The results indicate that national transfers from the redistribution federal arrangement are an important determinant of inter provincial trade generating relevant (and negative in the origin) spillover effects between the provinces. Also, the concentration in CABA and Buenos Aires discourages inter-provincial trade. |
| Keywords: | Gravity Model, Spatial Interactions, Redistribution Federal Arrangement |
| JEL: | R10 F14 C21 |
| Date: | 2021–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:103&r= |
| By: | Koike, Atushi; Sakaguchi, Takuhiro; Seya, Hajime |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the relationship between road infrastructure stock and total factor productivity (TFP) using R-JIP2017, a database of productivity by industry for each prefecture in Japan, which allows us to estimate TFP with considering the quality of inputs. Specifically, using the growth accounting method, we estimated TFP for each industry in each prefecture from 1972 to 2012, after the period of high economic growth. Afterwards, we conducted a panel data analysis to explain the estimated TFP by road stock. The results of a panel unit root test indicated the existence of unit roots in the road infrastructure stock. Therefore, unlike many previous studies, a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was used as the empirical model, considering the nonstationarity of the variables. The results of the analysis indicated that road stock had a positive and significant relationship with TFP at the 5% level in the majority of industries, even after the period of rapid economic growth. Further, we found that the two-way fixed effects model, which does not consider the non-stationarity of road infrastructure stock, could produce misleading results. |
| Keywords: | Total factor productivity (TFP); R-JIP; Road infrastructure; ARDL model |
| JEL: | R11 R40 R42 |
| Date: | 2022–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:112375&r= |
| By: | Hollingsworth, Alex; Jaworski, Taylor; Kitchens, Carl; Rudik, Ivan (Cornell University) |
| Abstract: | We develop a spatial equilibrium model to evaluate the efficiency and distributional impacts of the leading air quality regulation in the United States: the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS). We link our economic model to an integrated assessment model for air pollutants which allows us to capture endogenous changes in emissions, amenities, labor, and production. Our results show that the NAAQS generate over $23 billion of annual welfare gains. This is roughly 80 percent of welfare gains of the second-best NAAQS design, but only 25 percent of the first-best emission pricing policy. The NAAQS benefits are concentrated in a small set of cities, impose substantial costs on manufacturing workers, improve amenities in counties in compliance with the NAAQS, and reduce emissions in compliance counties through general equilibrium channels. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for geographic reallocation and equilibrium responses when quantifying the effects of environmental regulation. |
| Date: | 2022–03–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:x6fuw&r= |
| By: | Tanya Araújo; R. Vilela Mendes |
| Abstract: | Long range connections play an essential role in dynamical processes on networks, on the processing of information in biological networks, on the structure of social and economical networks and in the propagation of opinions and epidemics. Here we review the evidence for long range connections in real world networks and discuss the nature of the nonlo- cal diffusion arising from different distance-dependent laws. Particular attention is devoted to exponential and power laws. |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp02212022&r= |
| By: | Jessica Barnes-Najor; Meryl Barofsky; Sara Bernstein; Lana Garcia; Laura Hoard; Lizabeth Malone; Laura McKechnie; Ethan Petticrew; Christine Sims; Allison Walker |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this report is to share the Native Culture and Language in the Classroom Observation (NCLCO), which is a measure that records the types of cultural materials that surround children in Region XI Head Start classrooms. |
| Keywords: | Native Culture , Language in the Classroom Observation , NCLCO, head start, AI/AN FACES |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:daac8e53cdc34244910f7f4e0f594e4d&r= |
| By: | Johnson, Shane; Nikolovska, Manja |
| Abstract: | Theories of crime emphasize the role of different causal factors. Some focus on what psychological (or similar) factors motivate offending, ignoring the role of crime opportunity, while others focus on the latter, taking offender motivation as a given. Testing such theories is difficult absent significant events that influence both, but the COVID-19 pandemic has created such conditions. As a consequence of government containment policies, we have seen dramatic changes to people’s day-to-day activities, with people spending more time at home (ONSa, 2020; ILO 2020) and more time online (Kemp et al., 2021), reducing opportunities for crime in urban environments but increasing them online. Equally, by restricting mobility, containment policies have had the potential to cause economic and emotional strain that would affect offender motivation – in the short-term at least. Here, we test if and how COVID-19 containment policies impacted upon different types of fraud committed online and in a physical context. According to offender-focused explanations, the strain caused by the pandemic would be expected to lead to increases in crime, which should largely persist regardless of subsequent variation in macro level changes to people’s routine activities. According to opportunity theories of crime, we would also expect crime to change, but for levels to closely follow changes to mobility and online activity – increasing as restrictions are imposed and declining as they are relaxed. Using data for online crime and doorstep fraud, online sales, mobility data and an Autoregressive Conditional Hetroskedasticity (ARCH) statistical modelling framework, our findings provide striking evidence consistent with routine activity theory (Cohen & Felson, 1979), with oscillations in people’s day-to-day activities appearing to shape peaks and troughs in levels of crime committed online. |
| Date: | 2022–03–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:ze49b&r= |
| By: | Efendic, Adnan; Kovaéc, Dejan; Shapiro, Jacob N. |
| Abstract: | We investigate the long-term relationship between conflict-related migration and individual socioeconomic inequality. Looking at the post-conflict environment of Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), a former Yugoslav state most heavily impacted by the conflicts of the early 1990s, the paper focuses on differences in educational performance and income between four groups: migrants, internally displaced persons, former external migrants, and those who did not move. The analysis leverages a municipality-representative survey (n≈6,000) that captured self-reported education and income outcomes as well as migration histories. We find that individuals with greater exposure to conflict had systematically worse educational performance and lower earnings two decades after the war. Former external migrants now living in BiH have better educational and economic outcomes than those who did not migrate, but these advantages are smaller for individuals who were forced to move. We recommend that policies intended to address migration-related discrepancies should be targeted on the basis of individual and family experiences caused by conflict. |
| Keywords: | conflict,education,forced migration,inequality |
| JEL: | D74 F22 K42 Z18 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:112022&r= |
| By: | TOKUI Joji; MIZUTA Takeshi |
| Abstract: | From the evidence of the R-JIP database we know that the main sectors driving recent productivity differentials among regions in Japan are not manufacturing but service sectors. At the same time, it is well known that in many service sectors locational convenience is crucial for productivity, and this characteristic of each region is supposed to be reflected in its land price. But land input as a factor of production is not usually accounted in the KLEMS-type productivity factorization. Thus, the calculated difference of total factor productivity in service sectors among regions may actually include the contribution of land input, which is expected to vary with the relative convenience of each location. In this paper we estimate land input of each industry in each prefecture in accordance with the R-JIP database 2021 and conduct a new analysis of productivity differentials among regions in Japan taking land input as well as labor and capital into account. To estimate the stock value of land we start from prefectural total value of commercial and industrial land, which is surveyed by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications for the purpose of assessing real estate tax revenue of each municipality, and we correct the gap between market land price and government valuation for tax purposes. Then prefectural total value of land is multiplied by the industrial ratio of capital stock from the R-JIP database, and land to capital stock ratio from the Statistics of Corporations by Industry, and within manufacturing it is divided by land input from the Census of Manufacturers to get the value of land used by each industry. We then convert the estimated stock value of land into the value of land service input by applying the concept of user cost. |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:22014&r= |
| By: | Casilda Lasso de la Vega (University of the Basque Country); Oscar Volij (Ben Gurion University); Federico Weinschelbaum (UTDT/CONICET) |
| Abstract: | We provide a necessary and sufficient condition on the equilibrium of a Walrasian economy for an iincrease in police expenditure to induce an increase in crime. This perverse effect is consistent with any appropriation technology and could arise even if the level of police protection is the socially optimal one. |
| JEL: | D72 D74 H23 K42 |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aoz:wpaper:117&r= |
| By: | Felix Schaff (London School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | What was the impact of urban political structure on economic inequality in preindustrial times? I document that more closed political institutions were associated with higher economic inequality in a panel of early modern German cities. To investigate the mechanisms behind that macro-relationship, I construct a unique individual-level panel-dataset, containing c.27,000 observations on personal wealth and political office-holding in the city state of Nördlingen from 1579 to 1700. I employ a difference-in-differences setting to show that political elites enriched themselves substantially after entering office. Individuals with higher political power enriched themselves more. These private gains from public office contributed to economic inequality. To mitigate concerns about reverse causality, I exploit the Thirty Years' War (1618-1648) as a plausibly exogenous shock to elites' potential for rent-seeking. Political office-holders manipulated this crisis to enrich themselves further, contributing to an unequal wealth distribution. The results are hard to square with a common historical narrative suggesting that urban political elites were "civic-minded" guardians of the common good. |
| Keywords: | Wealth, Inequality, Elites, Political Economy, Rent-Seeking, Cities |
| JEL: | D31 D72 H20 N43 N93 P48 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0225&r= |
| By: | Jia, Ruixue; Ma, Xiao; Xie, Victoria Wenxin |
| Abstract: | Flood events and flood risk have been increasing in the past few decades and have important consequences on the economy. Using county-level and ZIP-code-level data during 1998–2018 from the U.S., we document that (1) increased flood risk has large negative impacts on firm entry, employment and output in the long run; (2) flood events reduce output in the short run while their impact on firm entry and employment is limited. Motivated by these findings, we construct a spatial equilibrium model to characterize how flood risk shapes firms’ location choices and workers’ employment, which we use to estimate the aggregate impact of increased flood risk on the economy. We find that flood risk reduced U.S. aggregate output by 0.52 percent in 2018, 80% of which stemmed from expectation effects and 20% from direct damages. We also apply our model to studying the distributional consequences and forecasting the impact of future changes in flood risk. Our results highlight the importance of considering the adjustment of firms and workers in response to risk in evaluating the consequences of natural disasters. |
| Keywords: | flood risk; flood events; productivity damage |
| JEL: | Q5 R1 |
| Date: | 2022–03–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:112367&r= |
| By: | Hande Inanc; Megan Caruso |
| Abstract: | Compared to 2020, in which youth unemployment rates spiked due to the COVID-19 pandemic, youth unemployment rates in 2021 decreased in every state. |
| Keywords: | Youth Unemployment, COVID, pandemic |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:706ac76f894c46088a932bf64acfca9f&r= |
| By: | Brüderle, Mirjam Anna; Peters, Jörg; Roberts, Gareth |
| Abstract: | South Africa has one of the highest crime rates in the world. This paper examines the effect of weather shocks on various types of crime. Using a 12-year panel data set at monthly resolution on the police ward level, we observe a short-term effect of temperatures on violent crime, supporting the heat-aggression link suggested by psychological research. Furthermore, we find evidence for a subtle medium-term effect of weather on crime via droughts and agricultural income, which is in line with the economic theory of crime. Yet, we also emphasize often neglected but well-documented limitations to the interpretability of weather data and weather-induced mechanisms. Recognizing these limitations, we conclude with a cautious interpretation of our findings to inform police deployment strategies. |
| Keywords: | South Africa,weather,crime,income shocks |
| JEL: | C33 O55 Q54 R11 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:940&r= |
| By: | Odmaa Narantungalag (School of Economics and Finance, Massey University, Palmerston North) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the local economic impacts of a large-scale copper-gold mine in Mongolia. Employing household data from 2008 to 2016, we find positive economic effects of the mine and its corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities. A ten percent increase in mining activities resulted in 2.2 and 2.3 percent increases in income and food consumption, respectively. Mining activities enabled households to increase their medical expenditures, while sickness did not increase significantly. In contrast, education expenditures reduced while educational attainments improved in mining areas. Both expenditure patterns indicate that large-scale extractive industries can generate positive welfare outcomes for residents, and CSR activities further enhance the mining sector’s traditional benefits. |
| Keywords: | Mining, Natural Resources, Regional Economy, and Economic Development |
| JEL: | L72 O12 O13 Q32 R11 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mas:dpaper:2101&r= |
| By: | Luz, Gregorio; Barboza, Matheus Henrique Cunha; da Silva Portugal, Licinio; Giannotti, Mariana; van Wee, Bert |
| Abstract: | Most of the transport equity and TRSE studies assume that increasing accessibility levels lead to increased activity participation and, therefore, a reduction in social exclusion. Although this assumption makes sense from a theoretical point of view, this causal relationship has not yet been validated in practice. Previous studies investigating the accessibility-participation relationship were inconclusive, indicating that increasing accessibility has a limited impact on activity participation levels, if any. Moreover, the existing empirical evidence in the literature in the Global South context is scarce, is merely correlational and fails to infer causality between both variables. The contributions of the paper are threefold. First, (a) to provide a conceptual model of the causal relationship between accessibility, activity participation and risk of transport-related social exclusion (TRSE); second, (b) to summarise the available empirical evidence about the accessibility-activity participation relationship through a systematic literature review; and third, (c) to provide evidence of the causal relationship between accessibility and activity participation levels in a Global South context. Three Poisson regression models associated with an instrumental variable identification strategy were used to assess the causal effect between accessibility and participation in total, mandatory and discretionary activities in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. The three models showed a highly significant, strong correlation between an individuals’ accessibility level and their actual participation in total, mandatory and discretionary activities. Based on our results, we argue that low accessibility levels may severely restrict individuals’ life chances and add evidence that accessibility has to be an important instrument to support transport policies' decision-making. |
| Date: | 2022–02–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2p896&r= |
| By: | Doran, Kirk (University of Notre Dame); Gelber, Alexander (University of Pennsylvania); Isen, Adam (U.S. Department of the Treasury) |
| Abstract: | We compare winning and losing firms in lotteries for H-1B visas, matching administrative data on these lotteries to administrative tax data on U.S. firms and to approved U.S. patents. Winning one additional H-1B visa crowds out about 1.5 other workers at the firm. Additional H-1Bs have insignificant and at most modest effects on firm innovation. More general evidence from the universe of U.S. firms and the universe of H-1B visas using alternative estimation strategies is consistent with these results. Firms that hire H-1Bs grow faster and innovate more because they are different in other ways from firms that do not. |
| Keywords: | immigration, highly skilled workforce, innovation, employment |
| JEL: | J00 J08 J15 J23 J24 J48 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15146&r= |
| By: | Bijwaard, Govert (NIDI - Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute); Wahba, Jackline (University of Southampton) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of unemployment on out-migration by distinguishing between return and onward migration and controlling for total earnings. We use Timing-of-Events models and control for the endogeneity of total earnings, unemployment and out-migration using administrative data from the Netherlands. Our findings suggest that unemployment triggers return migration more than onward migration. When total earnings are low unemployment increases the hazard of return migration. When total earnings are high the hazard rate of onward migration for unemployed immigrants increases. Thus, these findings highlight that out-migration is affected both by unemployment and by total earnings as well as by the interaction between the two. |
| Keywords: | migration dynamics, temporary migration, target savers, unemployment |
| JEL: | F22 J61 C41 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15148&r= |
| By: | Diego Marino Fages (University of Nottingham); Matias Morales (New York University) |
| Abstract: | Anti-immigrant sentiment is frequently motivated by the idea that migrants are a threat to the host country’s culture (Rapoport et al., 2020). We contribute to the discussion by investigating whether migrants adapt their social preferences (SPs) to those prevalent in their host country. For this, we rely on a global and experimentally validated survey to show that migrants’ preferences strongly correlate with their host population’s SPs and provide some evidence of a causal relationship. |
| Keywords: | Migration, Assimilation, Social Preferences |
| Date: | 2022–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:not:notcdx:2022-07&r= |
| By: | Pesaran, M. H.; Pick, A.; Timmermann, A. |
| Abstract: | We develop novel forecasting methods for panel data with heterogeneous parameters and examine them together with existing approaches. We conduct a systematic comparison of their predictive accuracy in settings with different cross-sectional (N) and time (T) dimensions and varying degrees of parameter heterogeneity. We investigate conditions under which panel forecasting methods can perform better than forecasts based on individual estimates and demonstrate how gains in predictive accuracy depend on the degree of parameter heterogeneity, whether heterogeneity is correlated with the regressors, the goodness of fit of the model, and, particularly, the time dimension of the data set. We propose optimal combination weights for forecasts based on pooled and individual estimates and develop a novel forecast poolability test that can be used as a pretesting tool. Through a set of Monte Carlo simulations and three empirical applications to house prices, CPI inflation, and stock returns, we show that no single forecasting approach dominates uniformly. However, forecast combination and shrinkage methods provide better overall forecasting performance and offer more attractive risk profiles compared to individual, pooled, and random effects methods. |
| Keywords: | Forecasting, Panel data, Heterogeneity, Forecast evaluation, Forecast combination, Shrinkage, Pooling |
| JEL: | C33 C53 |
| Date: | 2022–03–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cam:camdae:2219&r= |
| By: | Kozhaya, Mireille (University of Wuppertal); Martínez Flores, Fernanda (RWI) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the effect of a unique child labor ban regulation on employment and school enrollment. The ban implemented in Mexico in 2015, increased the minimum working age from 14 to 15, introduced restrictions to employ underage individuals, and imposed penalties for the violation of the law. Our identification strategy relies on a DiD approach that exploits the date of birth as a natural cutoff to assign individuals into treatment and control groups. The ban led to a decrease in the probability to work by 1.2 percentage points and an increase in the probability of being enrolled in school by 2.2 percentage points for the treatment group. These results are driven by a reduction in employment in paid activities, and in the secondary and tertiary sectors. The effects are persistent several years after the ban. |
| Keywords: | child labor, ban, minimum working age, schooling |
| JEL: | I38 J22 J23 J82 O12 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15144&r= |
| By: | Pike, Susan; D’Agostino, Mollie; Flynn, Kailey |
| Abstract: | Transit agencies are looking for ways to save costs and improve transit rider experiences. One strategy to accomplish this is to replace legacy payment systems that accept cash and in-network agency-issued tickets or cards with fully digital open-loop payments systems, which accept all debit, credit, and mobile payments and are more readily interoperable between different transit agencies and shared mobility operators. This transition will not come without confronting a number of equity and logistical challenges to ensure all riders benefit from this transition. The state of California’s California Integrated Travel Project (Cal-ITP) aims to help transit agencies make this digital payment transition. Researchers at UC Davis partnered with Cal-ITP to explore this question: how can California transit agencies modernize fare payment while ensuring transit systems are open and accessible to un-and underbanked riders? Researchers collected 200+ intercept surveys in the Davis-Sacramento-Woodland area of California to assess the potential for un-and underbanked passengers to use digital payment tools, such as contactless cards, and smartphone-based apps. This research finds that among unbanked riders who typically pay with cash, more than half of respondents would be open to paying with a prepaid debit card or a prepaid government-issued debit card, and about a third are open to paying with a mobile phone. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Business, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Public transportation, un-and underbanked, open payments, transit payments, transit equity, transit access |
| Date: | 2022–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt8hb738wd&r= |
| By: | Bruno Albuquerque; Alexandra Varadi |
| Abstract: | We use UK transaction-level data during the Covid-19 pandemic to study whether mortgage payment holidays (PH) can act as a mechanism for smoothing household consumption following negative aggregate shocks. Our results suggest that mortgage PH were accessed by both households with pre-existing financial vulnerabilities and by those with stronger balance sheets, including buy-to-let investors. We also find that the temporary liquidity relief provided by PH allowed liquidity-constrained households to maintain higher annual consumption growth compared to those non-eligible for the policy. Finally, we find that mortgage PH led to higher saving rates for more financially-stable households. |
| Keywords: | Mortgage payment holidays; Household behaviour; Consumption; High-frequency data; Difference-in-differences; Panel data |
| Date: | 2022–02–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2022/044&r= |
| By: | Toshiki Tamai (Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya University; Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya University; Graduate School of Economics, Nagoya University) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the efficiency of equilibrium policies and public expenditure composition under labor market imperfection in fiscal competition model. The sources of the inefficiency for supplying public goods and inputs with capital tax are the employment- stimulus and fund-raising effects of public inputs and fiscal and unemployment-exporting externalities. Our main findings are explained as follows. First, if public expenditure is financed by capital and lump-sum taxes, public goods are efficiently provided while public inputs are overprovided in the first-best sense because jurisdictional governments seek to attract capital for creating employment and tax revenue. However, public inputs are efficiently provided in the second-best sense. After that, we focus on financing by capital tax. If the capital tax is solely available, public goods are undersupplied in the second-best sense as with previous studies. In contrast, public inputs can be either undersupplied and oversupplied in the second-best sense, depending on positive effects of public input on employment and tax revenue through attracting capital. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal Competition; Unemployment; public inputs; public goods. |
| Date: | 2022–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:1072&r= |
| By: | Aizhamal Rakhmetova; Roman Hoffmann; Mariola Pytlikova |
| Abstract: | Despite an increasing number of studies, there is no scientific consensus on the extent and conditions under which environmental factors influence migration. In particular, little is known about the role played by financial resources that may facilitate or hinder migration under environmental stress. Empirical evidence shows that some households migrate in response to environmental hazards while others remain in place, potentially being trapped due to lack of resources, i.e. poverty constraints. However, little is known about how access to financial resources influences the decision of a household to stay or migrate. On one hand, financial resources can help to alleviate poverty constraints and to cover migration costs, thereby increasing migration (climate-driver mechanism); on the other hand, financial resources can also improve the adaptation capacities of households at the place they reside, and thus reduce migration responses to environmental changes (climate-inhibitor mechanism). To shed light on households’ migration decisions in response to climate shocks depending on their access to financial resources, we utilize rich micro-data from Indonesia and exploit two sources of variation in climate and cash transfers. Our results suggest that better access to financial resources facilitates the climateinhibitor mechanism for short-term rainfall shocks and natural disasters. At the same time, better accessibility to financial resources enhances the climate-driver mechanism for accumulated rainfall shocks and temperature anomalies. |
| Keywords: | climate change; migration; financial resources; adaptation; |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp724&r= |
| By: | Amaia Palencia-Esteban (University of Vigo) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the effect of immigrants on the women-men gap in several labor market outcomes, focusing on their role as child caretakers and substitutes for women’s domestic work. We use administrative Spanish Social Security records from 1998 to 2008 and follow a spatial correlations approach with instrumental variables, based on the distribution of early migrants across provinces. We exploit the presence of children and its interaction with immigrants share to capture the home-care substitution effect. We find that one percentage point increase in the regional share of immigrants rises the women-men differential in employment probability by 0.6 points in families with children, while the effect equals 0.2 for the childless. The additional effect of 0.4 points on families with children is attributed to the impact of immigrants through the supply of childcare services. This effect also applies to the work intensity (days and hours worked) and labor earnings. Our results are largely driven by individuals below tertiary education. |
| Keywords: | D10, F22, J22, J31 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inq:inqwps:ecineq2022-610&r= |
| By: | William J. Collins; Nicholas C. Holtkamp; Marianne H. Wanamaker |
| Abstract: | The US Civil War ended in 1865 without the distribution of land or compensation to those formerly enslaved—a decision often seen as a cornerstone of racial inequality. We build a dataset to observe Black households’ landholdings in 1880, a key component of their wealth, alongside a sample of White households. We then link their sons to the 1900 census records to observe economic and human capital outcomes. We show that Black landowners (and skilled workers) were able to transmit substantial intergenerational advantages to their sons. But such advantages were small relative to the overall racial gaps in economic status. |
| JEL: | N0 N21 |
| Date: | 2022–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29858&r= |
| By: | Esteban J. Quiñones; Sabine Liebenehm; Rasadhika Sharma |
| Abstract: | The authors investigate the extent to which droughts impact migration responses of rural households in Thailand and Vietnam, as well as the role of underlying mechanisms such as risk aversion and socioeconomic status that may affect the response. |
| Keywords: | migration, droughts, Thailand, Vietnam, International |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:ac2ba236e1b8428fbeb6d8b4366e5477&r= |
| By: | Luca Colombo (Deakin University, Burwood, Australia - Deakin University [Burwood]); Paola Labrecciosa (Monash Business School); Agnieszka Rusinowska (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | The paper presents a novel approach based on di¤erential games to the study of criminal networks. We extend the static crime network game (Ballester et al., 2004, 2006) to a dynamic setting. First, we determine the relationship between the Markov Perfect Equilibrium (MPE) and the vector of Bonacich centralities. The established proportionality between the Nash equilibrium and the Bonacich centrality in the static game does not hold in general in the dynamic setting. Next, focusing on regular networks, we provide an explicit characterization of equilibrium strategies, and conduct comparative dynamic analysis with respect to the network size, network density, and implicit growth rate of total wealth in the economy. Contrary to the static game, where aggregate equilibrium increases with network size and density, in the dynamic setting, more criminals or more connected criminals can lead to a decrease in total crime, both in the short run and at the steady state. We also examine another novel issue in the network theory literature, i.e., the existence of a voracity e¤ect, occurring when an increase in the implicit growth rate of total wealth in the economy lowers economic growth. We do identify the presence of such a voracity e¤ect in our setting. |
| Keywords: | differential games,Markov Perfect Equilibrium,social networks,criminal networks,Bonacich centrality |
| Date: | 2022–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-03601580&r= |