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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Benedict Guttman-Kenney; Andreas Fuster (Schweizerische Nationalbank; Federal Reserve Bank of New York; National Bureau of Economic Research); Eilidh Geddes (Research and Statistics Group); Andrew F. Haughwout |
| Abstract: | Housing is by far the most important asset for most households, and, not coincidentally, housing debt dwarfs other household liabilities. The relationship between housing debt and housing values figures significantly in financial and macroeconomic stability, as events during the housing bust of 2006-12 clearly demonstrated. This week, Liberty Street Economics presents five posts touching on various aspects of housing, from the changing relationship between mortgage debt and housing equity to the future of homeownership. In today?s post, we provide estimates of housing equity and explore how vulnerable households are to declines in house prices, using methods introduced in our paper ?Tracking and Stress Testing U.S. Household Leverage.? |
| Keywords: | Mortgages; Stress Testing; Leverage |
| JEL: | D1 G2 E2 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:87173&r=all |
| By: | Huang, Bin (Nanjing University of Finance and Economics); He, Xiaoyan (Nanjing University of Finance and Economics); Xu, Lei (National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR)); Zhu, Yu (University of Dundee) |
| Abstract: | We explore recent policy changes which aim to equalize access to elite elementary schools in Beijing, to identify the effect of access to quality education on house prices based on a unique dataset. Using property transaction records from Beijing over the period 2013-2016, we construct a balanced 4-wave panel of residential complexes, each of which linked to its designated primary schools. Whereas the multi-school dicing policy involves randomly assigning previously ineligible pupils to key elementary schools through lotteries, the policy of school federation led by elite schools consolidates ordinary primary schools through alliance with elite schools. Moreover, the designated primary school for a residential complex can change from an ordinary primary school to a key elementary school without involving neighbouring schools in surrounding residential complexes through a "pure" re-designation effect. We allow for systemic differences between the treated and non-treated residential complexes using the Matching Difference-in-Differences (MDID) approach. Our estimates indicate that the effect on house prices of being eligible to enrol in a municipal-level key primary school is about 4-6%, while the premium for being eligible for a less prestigious district-level key primary school is only about 2-3%. Our findings are robust to an alternative measure of primary school prestige based on an unofficial ranking from a popular parenting support website, which is shown to be closely related to the number of awards in academic tournaments. |
| Keywords: | quality school designation, house price premium, Matching DID, China |
| JEL: | R21 I28 H44 |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12897&r=all |
| By: | Yifan Gong (University of Western Ontario); Charles Ka Yui Leung (City University of Hong Kong) |
| Abstract: | A simple spatial equilibrium model with the peer group effect and local public finance can match several stylized facts of the labor market and housing market in the United States. Our counter-factual policy analyses generate further insights. First, the welfare of households can change as the government varies the location of public housing units with a neighborhood. Second, even though the public housing policy and housing voucher program deliver similar results at the household level, they are different as the former tends to benefit the offspring more, while the latter is the reverse. Third, combining school finance consolidation policy with public housing policy can lead to a Pareto improvement. Unfortunately, a policy that can benefit all agents, in the long run, may not be implemented as it can hurt some agents in the short run. |
| Keywords: | school finance consolidation, public housing, housing voucher, endogenous sorting mechanism, short-run rigidity versus long-run flexibility |
| JEL: | H00 I20 R00 |
| Date: | 2019–12–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cth:wpaper:gru_2019_031&r=all |
| By: | Shenzhe Jiang (Peking University); Jianjun Miao (Boston University); Yuzhe Zhang (Texas A&M University) |
| Abstract: | China’s housing prices have been growing rapidly over the past few decades, despite low growth in rents. We study the impact of housing bubbles on China’s economy, based on the understanding that local governments use land-sale revenue to fuel infrastructure investment. We calibrate our model to the Chinese data over the period 2003-2013 and find that our calibrated model can match the declining capital return and GDP growth, the average housing price growth, and the rising infrastructure to GDP ratio in the data. We conduct two counterfactual experiments to estimate the impact of a bubble collapse and a property tax. |
| Keywords: | Housing Bubble, Infrastructure, Economic Growth, Chinese Economy, Property Tax |
| JEL: | O11 O16 O18 P24 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2019–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bos:iedwpr:dp-332&r=all |
| By: | Andrew F. Haughwout; Andreas Fuster (Schweizerische Nationalbank; Federal Reserve Bank of New York; National Bureau of Economic Research); Nima Dahir (Research and Statistics Group); Michael Neubauer (Research and Statistics Group) |
| Abstract: | Home price growth expectations remained stable relative to last year, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York?s 2018 SCE Housing Survey. Respondents expect mortgage rates to rise over the next year, and perhaps as a result, the share of owners who expect to refinance their mortgages over the next year declined slightly. In addition, homeowners view themselves as more likely to make investments in their homes, and renters? perceived access to mortgage credit has tightened somewhat. Although the majority of households continue to view housing as a good financial investment, there are some persistent and large differences across regions in the pervasiveness of this view, as this post will discuss. |
| Keywords: | Expectations; Housing |
| JEL: | R3 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:87253&r=all |
| By: | Richard Kalis; Daniel Dujava |
| Abstract: | We analyse commuting patterns in Bratislava’s fast growing sub-urban region with suboptimal developed infrastructure. Standardized discrete choice model is used to estimate demand for individual car transport as well as for public buses and trains and to obtain corresponding elasticities with respect to travel costs, times and income. We find low rate of substitution between available modes. Direct price elasticity for public modes is in accordance with often cited rule of thumb -0.3. Negative income elasticities of demand for buses and trains, together with low direct price elasticity for car transport can be hard to overcome when looking for solution of current traffic problems in the region. We use modelled demand to predict effects of two recently proposed policies - new parking system in Bratislava city and construction of highway D4R7. In case of first policy, we expect massive reduction in car usage due to increased costs for car commuters. On the other hand, new highway would have only limited impact on mode choice and could reduce number of train commuters. |
| Keywords: | Elasticities, Mode-choice, Nested Logit Model, Transportation |
| JEL: | R41 R42 R48 |
| Date: | 2019–08–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:brt:depwps:019&r=all |
| By: | Miriam Steurer (University of Graz, Austria); Caroline Bayr (Joanneum Research, Policies, Graz, Austria) |
| Abstract: | Digital land use data, generally derived by remote sensing and often organized in grid form, have become widely available for even the most remote areas of the globe. Here we investigate how to use land use data to measure three of the most characteristic aspects of urban sprawl: low density, low continuity of land use type (scatteredness), and low compactness of the shape of the city. For each of these categories we present multiple urban sprawl indicators. Some of these indicators have been used in the literature before, others we developed ourselves. For density measurements we illustrate how simple changes to common density indicators can improve their meaningfulness. With respect to scatteredness we show that the interpretation of entropy measures can be ambiguous. Using a variant on Moran’s I index does a better job at measuring scatteredness. When it comes to measuring compactness, the grid structure of land use data can inflate the boundary of the measured area. We introduce new compactness indices that correct for this problem. To illustrate the discussed indices, we apply them to Graz, the second largest city in Austria, using data from the CORINE Land Cover (CLC) Project [1]. |
| Keywords: | surban sprawl, density, entropy, GIS, remote sensing, urban dynamics, spatial analysis, compac |
| JEL: | R11 R52 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grz:wpaper:2020-02&r=all |
| By: | Lucas Gortázar; David Mayor; José Montalbán |
| Abstract: | We test how changes in the design of public school choice mechanisms affect the level of segregation by nationality and parents' educational level across schools in the Madrid region using data from two reforms undertaken in the 2012 and 2013 school years. |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2020-06&r=all |
| By: | Pastore, Francesco (Università della Campania Luigi Vanvitelli); Semerikova, Elena (National Research University) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to assess the role of migration as an adjustment mechanism device to favor convergence across states and regions of Russia. In contrast to previous studies, we use variations in the population of a region as a proxy of its net migration rate and apply spatial econometric methodology in order to distinguish the effect from the neighbouring regions. We provide descriptive statistical evidence showing that Russia has more/less/the same intense migration flows than the USA and EU. The econometric analysis shows that migration flows are sensitive to both regional income and regional unemployment differentials. Nonetheless, we find that internal migration is sensitive to regional unemployment and income differentials of neighbouring regions. Dependent on the welfare, pre- or after-crisis period, income in neighbouring regions can create out- or in-migration flows. The relatively high degree of internal mobility coupled with the low sensitivity of migration flows to the local unemployment rate of distant regions might explain why migration flows tends not to generate convergence, but rather divergence across Russian regions. |
| Keywords: | internal and international migration, adjustment mechanism, spatial econometrics, Russia |
| JEL: | F15 F22 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12901&r=all |
| By: | Boeing, Geoff (Northeastern University); Besbris, Max; Schachter, Ariela; Kuk, John |
| Abstract: | Housing scholars stress the importance of the information environment in shaping housing search behavior and outcomes. Rental listings have increasingly moved online over the past two decades and, in turn, online platforms like Craigslist are now central to the search process. Do these technology platforms serve as information equalizers or do they reflect traditional information inequalities that correlate with neighborhood sociodemographics? We synthesize and extend analyses of millions of US Craigslist rental listings and find they supply significantly different volumes, quality, and types of information in different communities. Technology platforms have the potential to broaden, diversify, and equalize housing search information, but they rely on landlord behavior and, in turn, likely will not reach this potential without a significant redesign or policy intervention. Smart cities advocates hoping to build better cities through technology must critically interrogate technology platforms and big data for systematic biases. |
| Date: | 2020–01–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:n5zws&r=all |
| By: | Geoff Boeing; Max Besbris; Ariela Schachter; John Kuk |
| Abstract: | Housing scholars stress the importance of the information environment in shaping housing search behavior and outcomes. Rental listings have increasingly moved online over the past two decades and, in turn, online platforms like Craigslist are now central to the search process. Do these technology platforms serve as information equalizers or do they reflect traditional information inequalities that correlate with neighborhood sociodemographics? We synthesize and extend analyses of millions of US Craigslist rental listings and find they supply significantly different volumes, quality, and types of information in different communities. Technology platforms have the potential to broaden, diversify, and equalize housing search information, but they rely on landlord behavior and, in turn, likely will not reach this potential without a significant redesign or policy intervention. Smart cities advocates hoping to build better cities through technology must critically interrogate technology platforms and big data for systematic biases. |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2001.11585&r=all |
| By: | Basit Zafar (Bank of Italy; Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit; Arizona State University); Andreas Fuster (Schweizerische Nationalbank; Federal Reserve Bank of New York; National Bureau of Economic Research); Matthew Cocci; Wilbert Van der Klaauw |
| Abstract: | In February 2014, we administered a survey on housing-related issues to the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) panelists. Our primary goal was to secure rich and high-quality information on consumers? experiences and expectations regarding housing. The survey, among other things, collected data on households? perceptions and expectations of the growth in home prices, their intentions regarding moving or buying a new home, and their access to credit. In addition, for homeowners, we collected detailed information on their mortgage debt, past experiences such as foreclosure or refinancing, and expectations regarding future actions, such as taking out new debt or investing in the home. We are releasing the findings as a chart packet today, and in this post summarize some findings. |
| Keywords: | housing; survey; expectations |
| JEL: | R3 D1 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:86971&r=all |
| By: | Donghoon Lee; Graham Campbell (Research and Statistics Group); Andrew F. Haughwout; Joelle Scally; Wilbert Van der Klaauw |
| Abstract: | The Federal Reserve Bank of New York?s Center for Microeconomic Data today released its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the second quarter of 2016. It showed that overall household debt increased modestly over the period, with subdued mortgage originations and moderate but continued increases in non-housing related credit?particularly auto loans and credit cards. The total outstanding credit card balance now stands at $729 billion, up $17 billion from the first quarter, but still well below the peak of $866 billion reached in the fourth quarter of 2008. Credit card delinquency rates have continued to improve since peaking in 2008. We have previously ?looked under the hood? of auto loans, and in this post, we present analysis that provides new insight into credit card debt by examining trends in credit card issuance and usage. The Quarterly Report and the following analyses are based on data from the New York Fed?s Consumer Credit Panel, which is a nationally representative sample drawn from Equifax credit reports. |
| Keywords: | credit cards; household finance |
| JEL: | D1 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:87143&r=all |
| By: | Alicia H. Munnell; Abigail N. Walters; Anek Belbase; Wenliang Hou |
| Abstract: | As retirees live longer, spend more on medical care, and get less income replaced by Social Security, many may need to tap their home equity to be comfortable in retirement. The most direct way to access home equity is downsizing, but few choose this option because they generally prefer to stay in their house. The alternative is withdrawing equity through a reverse mortgage or a property tax deferral, but few households use these options either. A potential reason that homeowners are reluctant to borrow against their house is that, if they do decide to move, they have to pay back the loan with interest, which could leave them with inadequate resources at a vulnerable time in their life. This paper assesses how likely households are to move as they age to see if borrowing against one’s home is a viable financial strategy. The analysis uses the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) to analyze three cohorts: the HRS cohort (ages 50-54 in 1992), the AHEAD cohort (ages 70-74 in 1993), and a synthetic cohort covering the whole lifespan from age 50 to death. The analysis identifies typical housing trajectories in retirement and explores how often, and for whom, tapping home equity would be a viable strategy. |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crr:crrwps:wp2020-7&r=all |
| By: | Becker, Raphael Niklas; Henkel, Marcel |
| Abstract: | We discuss the role of key regions in spatial development. Local productivity shocks can affect the entire economy as they expand via tight connections in the domestic production network and in uence the geographical allocation of labor. In particular, we identify the set of key regions with the highest potential to affect aggregate productivity, output, and welfare. Key regions are central locations with strong spatial linkages in the production network but are not too large and congested so they can still attract additional labor in response to positive productivity shocks without local rents and input costs rising too much. Using a spatial equilibrium model and data from German districts, we find that a relatively modest development of productivity in key regions lowered German output and welfare growth by a factor of two from 2010 to 2015. |
| Keywords: | Regional trade,Input-output linkages,Labour mobility,Spatial economics,Economicgeography,Regional productivity,Sectoral productivity |
| JEL: | R10 R12 R15 F10 F1 F16 O4 O51 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:dicedp:331&r=all |
| By: | Federico Boffa (Free University of Bolzano‐Bozen, Faculty of Economics and Management); Alessandro Fedele (Free University of Bolzano‐Bozen, Faculty of Economics and Management); Alberto Iozzi (Università di Roma 'Tor Vergata' and SOAS University of London) |
| Abstract: | Following the development of autonomous vehicles (AVs) and GPS systems, fleets will gain prominence over private vehicles. We analyze the welfare effects of the transition from a fully decentralized regime, in which all travelers are atomistic and do not internalize the congestion externality, to a centralized regime, where all travelers are supplied by a fl eet of AVs controlled by a monopolist. In our model, heterogeneous individuals differing in the disutility from congestion may travel on one of two lanes, which may endogenously differ in the level of congestion, or they may not travel. We show that the monopolist sorts travelers across the two lanes differently than the decentralized regime. Moreover, depending on the severity of congestion costs, it may also exclude some travelers. We find that centralization is always welfare detrimental when the monopolist does not ration travel. If instead rationing occurs, centralization may be welfare beneficial, provided that congestion costs are sufficiently high. We then analyze how to restore first best with road taxes. While congestion charges are optimal under decentralization, taxes differ markedly in a centralized regime, where restoring first best may require subsidizing the monopolist. |
| Keywords: | Autonomous vehicles; congestion externality; eets; sorting; rationing |
| JEL: | R41 R11 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bzn:wpaper:bemps67&r=all |
| By: | P. GIVORD (Insee - Crest - Liepp); M. SUAREZ CASTILLO (Insee - Crest) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a new method that goes beyond the measurement of average value-added of schools by measuring whether schools mitigate or intensify grades dispersion among initially similar students. In practice, school value-added is estimated at different levels of final achievements’ distribution by quantile regressionswith school specific fixed effects. This method is applied using exhaustive data of the 2015 French high-school diploma and controlling for initial achievements and socio-economic background. Results suggest that almostone-sixth of the high schools significantly reduce, or on the contrary increase, the dispersion in final grades which were expected given the initial characteristics of their intake. |
| Keywords: | Value added; quantile regression; Student Growth Percentiles |
| JEL: | I20 C21 C50 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nse:doctra:g2019-14&r=all |
| By: | Giorgetti, Isabella; Picchio, Matteo |
| Abstract: | In 2007 the Italian central government started a program by transferring funds to regional governments to develop both private and public early childcare services. Exploiting the different timing of program implementation across regions, we evaluate its effectiveness in boosting the public supply of early childhood educational services. We find that the ratio between the available slots in public early childhood education and the population of those aged 0-2 increased by 17.2% three years after the start of the program, with respect to the pre-program level. The program impact was however limited in the South and mostly driven by the Center-North. |
| Keywords: | Early childcare services,public early childhood education,government transfers,difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | C23 H52 H70 I28 J13 R10 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:459&r=all |
| By: | Bernhard C. Dannemann (University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | In the research on peer effects, unweighted mean classroom performance is the predominant measure used in the estimation of education production functions. In this paper, based on the sociological concept of homophily, I introduce social network matrices that correspond to a weighting scheme for peers in the same class at school. Using spatial regression techniques, I confirm the presence of peer effects for the eighth grade population in the USA in the TIMSS 2015 student assessment. For students, the likelihood of cooperation increases conditionally on visible and non-visible characteristics, such as age, gender,migratory background, and attitudes towards scholastic achievement. This grouping behavior is found to affect the spillover effects of student variables, such as gender and language skills. The main findings are robust to various definitions of the social network matrix, as well as to the inclusion of teacher fixed effects. |
| Keywords: | Human Capital, Cognitive Skills, Peer Effects, Spatial Model, Class Heterogeneity, Education Production Function |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:old:dpaper:428&r=all |
| By: | Geoff Boeing; Jake Wegmann; Junfeng Jiao |
| Abstract: | Traditional US rental housing data sources such as the American Community Survey and the American Housing Survey report on the transacted market - what existing renters pay each month. They do not explicitly tell us about the spot market - i.e., the asking rents that current homeseekers must pay to acquire housing - though they are routinely used as a proxy. This study compares governmental data to millions of contemporaneous rental listings and finds that asking rents diverge substantially from these most recent estimates. Conventional housing data understate current market conditions and affordability challenges, especially in cities with tight and expensive rental markets. |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2002.01578&r=all |
| By: | Ira Nichols-Barrer; Nicholas Ingwersen; Camila Fernandez; Elena Moroz; Matt Sloan |
| Abstract: | This interim report describes a preliminary set of evaluation findings on the school rehabilitation activity and the training activity for teachers and school directors. |
| Keywords: | Republic of Georgia, School infrastructure rehabilitation, STEM, teacher training, school director training |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:0ba19e2b66244ade9c38ff0ab580a417&r=all |
| By: | Sripad Motiram; Vamsi Vakulabharanam |
| Abstract: | How do neighborhood characteristics influence economic development? How do social cleavages operate within cities in developing countries? This study is among the first of its kind to be conducted in the developing world, and focuses on India to provide answers. Given the limitations of publicly available sources of secondary data, we rely on a spatially representative household survey that we designed and conducted in the cities of Hyderabad and Mumbai. We conduct an inequality decomposition exercise to show that a substantial portion of intra-city income inequality is explained by social cleavages such as classes and social groups (caste and religion). While urban inequalities are stark, we show that spatial co-existence of classes and social groups (a phenomenon that we term as “Grayness†) is pronounced. At the neighborhood level, Grayness has a strong and positive impact on development outcomes. We establish this result by using an instrument that captures intra-city variations in the history of industrialization in these two cities. We discuss the policy implications of our findings. |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mab:wpaper:2020-01&r=all |
| By: | Zou,Bo; Choobchian,Pooria; Rozenberg,Julie |
| Abstract: | The increasing cyber connectivity of vehicles and between vehicles and infrastructure will drastically reshape mobility in the coming decades. Although the advent of connected mobility is expected to benefit travelers and society by smoothing traffic, improving rider convenience, and reducing accidents, the augmented cyber components in connected and autonomous vehicles and related infrastructure also give rise to cyber attacks on the transportation system. Yet, little attention has been paid to transportation cyber resilience. This paper thus proposes an investigation on this topic with a comprehensive literature review. Cyber components and plausible autonomous mobility systems operation scenarios are discussed, before identifying possible cyber attacks to autonomous mobility systems at the vehicle and system levels. The discussion then moves to existing practices to enhance cybersecurity, and several strategies are investigated toward enhancing autonomous mobility system cyber resilience. At the vehicle level, creating layers and separation to reduce cyber component connectivity and deploying an independent procedure for data collection and processing are important in vehicle design and manufacturing. At the system level, recommended strategies include keeping redundancy in transportation capacity, maintaining a separate road network, and deploying different sub-autonomous mobility systems. |
| Date: | 2020–01–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9135&r=all |
| By: | Bjerre-Nielsen, Andreas; Gandil, Mikkel H. |
| Abstract: | What is the efficacy of redrawing school attendance boundaries as a desegregation policy? To provide causal evidence on this question we employ novel data with unprecedented detail on the universe of Danish children and exploit changes in attendance boundaries over time. Households defy reassignments to schools with lower socioeconomic status. There is a strong social gradient in defiance, as resourceful households are more sensitive to the student composition of schools. We simulate the efficacy of desegregation policies and find that in areas with large levels of segregation, behavioral responses of households almost completely offset the intended effects of boundary changes. |
| Date: | 2020–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:3g2u6&r=all |
| By: | Nóra Révai (OECD) |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates two – often disconnected – policy questions: how can we scale the use of evidence in teaching practice, and how can we generate and scale innovation? Both questions necessitate understanding how teachers and schools connect with each other, and with other organisations and professionals. The paper thus explores the role of networks in scaling evidence and innovation through a review of literature and a number of short case descriptions. Through the lens of networks, the analysis shows how the mobilisation, construction and diffusion of knowledge are of central importance in both policy issues. It suggests that scaling evidence and innovation should be treated as one ecosystem, in which mechanisms that allow effectively blending research and practical knowledge are key. Further, the paper proposes a framework for studying knowledge dynamics in networks to better understand how their context, characteristics and devices can contribute to facilitate these dynamics. |
| Date: | 2020–02–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaab:215-en&r=all |
| By: | Outes-Leon,Ingo; Sanchez,Alan; Vakis,Renos |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the academic impact of a growth-mindset intervention on students starting the secondary level in public schools in urban Peru. ¡Expande tu Mente! is a 90-minute school session aimed at instilling the notion that a person's own intelligence is malleable. Students in schools randomly assigned to treatment showed a small improvement in math test scores and educational expectations, with a large and sustained impact in test scores among students outside the capital city. At a cost of $0.20 per pupil, ¡Expande tu Mente! was highly cost-effective. The results show the potential that brief growth-mindset interventions have for developing countries. |
| Date: | 2020–02–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9141&r=all |
| By: | Buurman, Margaretha (Free University Amsterdam); Delfgaauw, Josse (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Dur, Robert (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Zoutenbier, Robin (Ministry of Finance, The Netherlands) |
| Abstract: | We ran a field experiment at a large Dutch school for intermediate vocational education to examine whether the response of teachers to student feedback depends on the content of the feedback. Students evaluated all teachers, but only a randomly selected group of teachers received feedback. Additionally, we asked all teachers before as well as a year after the experiment to assess their own performance on the same items. We find a precisely estimated zero average treatment effect of receiving student feedback on student evaluation scores a year later. However, teachers whose self-assessment before the experiment is much more positive than their students' evaluations do improve significantly in response to receiving feedback. We also find that provision of feedback reduces the gap between teachers' self-assessment and students' assessment, but only to a limited extent. All of these results are driven by the female teachers in our sample; male teachers appear to be unresponsive to student feedback. |
| Keywords: | field experiment, feedback, teachers, student evaluations, self-assessment, gender differences |
| JEL: | C93 I2 M5 |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12907&r=all |
| By: | Mikołaj Czajkowski (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw); Michał Bylicki (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw); Wiktor Budziński (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw); Mateusz Buczyński (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw) |
| Abstract: | Outdoor advertising produces externalities, such as visual pollution, that have to be considered in cityscape planning. In recent years, opposition to excessive outdoor advertising in Poland has grown, resulting in the enactment of new regulations in 2015: The Landscape Bill. It allows local authorities to limit outdoor advertising in their municipality. We present the results of a stated preference study aimed at estimating the value that people attach to the reductions of outdoor advertising in Warsaw, the capital of Poland. We considered two types of outdoor advertising mediums: free-standing ads and on-building ads, alongside five levels of advertising reduction. We find that inhabitants of Warsaw prefer regulating and limiting the amount of outdoor advertising and we quantify their willingness to pay for such a policy. The most preferred level of free-standing ads was a 75% reduction, for which the people of Warsaw are willing to pay 5.6 million EUR annually in the form of increased prices and rents to compensate owners’ losses. For on-building ads, total ban was the most preferred, valued at 11.3 million EUR per year. Socio-demographic drivers of people’s willingness to pay are explored. Overall, our study demonstrates how stated preference methods can be used for informing urban landscape policies and adds to the ongoing debate surrounding outdoor advertising. |
| Keywords: | Outdoor advertising; public preferences; stated preference methods; discrete choice experiment; willingness to pay |
| JEL: | R52 D12 D62 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2020-01&r=all |
| By: | María Laura Alzúa (CEDLAS-FCE-Universidad Nacional de la Plata – Conicet, La Plata, Buenos Aires, Argentina); Habiba Djebbari (Aix-Marseille Univ, CNRS, EHESS, Ecole Centrale, AMSE, Marseille, France.); Amy J. Pickering (Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tufts University, Medford, MA) |
| Abstract: | Basic sanitation facilities are still lacking in large parts of the developing world, engendering serious environmental health risks. Interventions commonly deliver in-kind or cash subsidies to promote private toilet ownership. In this paper, we assess an intervention that provides information and behavioral incentives to encourage villagers in rural Mali to build and use basic latrines. Using an experimental research design and carefully measured indicators of use, we find a sizeable impact from this intervention: latrine ownership and use almost doubled in intervention villages, and open defecation was reduced by half. Our results partially attribute these effects to increased knowledge about cheap and locally available sanitation solutions. They are also associated with shifts in the social norm governing sanitation. Taken together, our findings, unlike previous evidence from other contexts, suggest that a progressive approach that starts with ending open defecation and targets whole communities at a time can help meet the new Sustainable Development Goal of ending open defecation. |
| Keywords: | sanitation, behavioral change, community-based intervention, social norm |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:1857&r=all |
| By: | Phoebe W. Ishak; Pierre-Guillaume Méon |
| Abstract: | We study the spatial distribution of the effect of oil and gas revenues on Brazilian municipalities, using variations in the international prices of oil and gas to establish causality. Oil and gas revenues increase economic activity, measured by night-time light emissions, in oil-producing municipalities but impose negative spill-overs on neighbouring municipalities. Spill-overs dominate beyond 150 km from oil activities and compensate direct effects in micro-regions. In oil municipalities, oil and gas revenues increase royalties, population, local real prices, crime, and real wages, essentially in manufacturing and services. Spillovers are negative on wages and prices and positive on royalties and crime. |
| Keywords: | Natural resources curse; oil; spill-over effects; Night-time lights; Brazil |
| JEL: | O11 O13 Q32 |
| Date: | 2020–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sol:wpaper:2013/302035&r=all |
| By: | Isaac Baley; Ana Figueiredo; Robert Ulbricht |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the dynamics of skill mismatch over the business cycle. We build a tractable directed search model, in which workers differ in skills along multiple dimensions and sort into jobs with heterogeneous skill requirements along those dimensions. Skill mismatch arises due to information and labor market frictions. Estimated to the U.S., the model replicates salient business cyclic properties of mismatch. We show that job transitions in and out of bottom job rungs, combined with career mobility of workers, are important to account for the empirical behavior of mismatch. The predicted career dynamics provide a novel narrative for the scarring effect of unemployment. The model suggests significant welfare costs associated with mismatch due to learning frictions. |
| Keywords: | Business cycles, cleansing, learning about skills, multidimensional sorting, scarring effect of unemployment, search-and-matching, skill mismatch, sullying. |
| JEL: | E24 E32 J24 J64 |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1694&r=all |
| By: | Vishal Kamat; Samuel Norris |
| Abstract: | We analyze the welfare effects of voucher provision in the DC Opportunity Scholarship Program (OSP), a school voucher program in Washington, DC, that randomly allocated vouchers to students. To do so, we develop new discrete choice tools to show how to use data with random allocation of school vouchers to characterize what we can learn about the welfare benefits of providing a voucher of a given amount, as measured by the average willingness to pay for that voucher, and these benefits net of the costs of providing that voucher. A novel feature of our tools is that they allow specifying the relationship of the demand for the various schools with respect to prices to be entirely nonparametric or to be parameterized in a flexible manner, both of which do not necessarily imply that the welfare parameters are point identified. Applying our tools to the OSP data, we find that provision of the status-quo as well as a wide range of counterfactual voucher amounts has a positive net average benefit. We find these positive results arise due to the presence of many low-tuition schools in the program, removing these schools from the program can result in a negative net average benefit. |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2002.00103&r=all |
| By: | Ira Nichols-Barrer; Nicholas Ingwersen; Camila Fernandez; Elena Moroz; Matt Sloan |
| Abstract: | In this issue brief, Mathematica researchers highlight key findings from their evaluation of school rehabilitation and educator training initiatives in Georgia. |
| Keywords: | Georgia, education, schools, teacher training |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:af16a3bae8ac4768886e3b4d14b0d816&r=all |
| By: | Bhuller, Manudeep (University of Oslo); Kostol, Andreas Ravndal (Arizona State University); Vigtel, Trond Christian (University of Oslo) |
| Abstract: | How the internet affects job matching is not well understood due to a lack of data on job vacancies and quasi-experimental variation in internet use. This paper helps fill this gap using plausibly exogenous roll-out of broadband infrastructure in Norway, and comprehensive data on recruiters, vacancies and job seekers. We document that broadband expansions increased online vacancy-postings and lowered the average duration of a vacancy and the share of establishments with unfilled vacancies. These changes led to higher job-finding rates and starting wages and more stable employment relationships after an unemployment-spell. Consequently, our calculations suggest that the steady-state unemployment rate fell by as much as one-fifth. |
| Keywords: | unemployment, information, job search, matching |
| JEL: | D83 J63 J64 L86 |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12895&r=all |
| By: | Bubonya, Melisa (ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR)); Cobb-Clark, Deborah A. (University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | Our goal is to investigate the pathways that link welfare receipt across generations. We undertake a mediation analysis in which we not only calculate the intergenerational correlation in welfare, but also quantify the portion of that correlation that operates through key mechanisms. Our data come from administrative welfare records for young people (aged 23 – 26) and their parents over nearly two decades which have been linked to survey responses from young people at age 18. The mediators we consider jointly explain nearly a third (32.2 percent) of the intergenerational correlation in welfare participation and more than half (52.6 percent) of the link between parental welfare participation and young people's total welfare benefits. The primary mechanism linking welfare receipt across generations is the failure to complete high school. Adolescents in welfare-reliant families experience more disruptions in their schooling (e.g., school changes and residential mobility, expulsions and suspensions) and receive less financial support from their families both of which impact on their chances of completing high school and avoiding the welfare roll. Young people's risk-taking behavior (smoking, illicit drug use, delinquency and pregnancy) is also a key mechanism underpinning intergenerational welfare reliance. Physical and mental health, work-welfare attitudes and academic achievement, in contrast, have a more modest role in transmitting welfare receipt across generations. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational welfare, social mobility, socioeconomic disadvantage, social assistance, welfare |
| JEL: | H53 I38 J62 |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp12893&r=all |
| By: | Ga\"etan Fournier; Karine Van Der Straeten; J\"orgen Weibull |
| Abstract: | This paper studies a spatial competition game between two firms that sell a homogeneous good at some pre-determined fixed price. A population of consumers is spread out over the real line, and the two firms simultaneously choose location in this same space. When buying from one of the firms, consumers incur the fixed price plus some transportation costs, which are increasing with their distance to the firm. Under the assumption that each consumer is ready to buy one unit of the good whatever the locations of the firms, firms converge to the median location: there is "minimal differentiation". In this article, we relax this assumption and assume that there is an upper limit to the distance a consumer is ready to cover to buy the good. We show that the game always has at least one Nash equilibrium in pure strategy. Under this more general assumption, the "minimal differentiation principle" no longer holds in general. At equilibrium, firms choose "minimal", "intermediate" or "full" differentiation, depending on this critical distance a consumer is ready to cover and on the shape of the distribution of consumers' locations. |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2001.11422&r=all |
| By: | Pajaron, Marjorie C.; Vasquez, Glacer Niño A. |
| Abstract: | The growing literature on environmental migration presents conflicting results. While some find that natural disasters induce international migration, others discover a dampening effect. We aim to reconcile these differences by using a comprehensive list of weather shocks from the Philippines, a country prone to natural disasters and a major exporter of labor. We constructed a longitudinal provincial dataset (2005–2015) from an assemblage of administrative and survey datasets and tested linear, quadratic, and lagged models. Our fixed-effects results are consistent with both strands in the literature with caveats. First, Filipinos are more likely to work abroad when they experience less-intense tropical cyclones and storm warning signal but are more likely to stay with a more damaging storm warning signal. Second, differential effects of weather shocks on international migration contingent on agriculture exists. Third, non-environmental factors such as economic (unemployment rate) and infrastructure (number of high schools) also push Filipinos abroad. |
| Keywords: | Migration,Natural Disaster,Panel Dataset,Agriculture,OFWs |
| JEL: | C33 C36 F22 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:460&r=all |
| By: | Clément Bosquet (Spatial Economic Research Center); Pierre-Philippe Combes (Département d'économie); Emeric Henry (Département d'économie); Thierry Mayer (Département d'économie) |
| Abstract: | Using an instrument based on a national contest in France determining researchers’ location, we find evidence of peer effects in academia, when focusing on precise groups of senders (producing the spillovers) and receivers (benefiting from the spillovers), defined based on field of specialisation, gender and age. These peer effects are shown to exist even outside formal co-authorship relationships. Furthermore, the match between the characteristics of senders and receivers plays a critical role. In particular, men benefit a lot from peer effects provided by men, while all other types of gender combinations produce spillovers twice as small. |
| Keywords: | Economics of Science; Peer Effects; Research Productivity; Gender Publication Gap |
| JEL: | I23 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/65v9ag2jfn865abjgaljmq2qi9&r=all |
| By: | Tan Tran |
| Abstract: | Within the literature of regional innovation systems, a growing stream of research emphasizes the role of differentiated knowledge bases. The employees’ occupations mainly measure the existing work on knowledge bases. Even though the conceptual theory highlights the importance of interactions across types of knowledge bases underlying innovation activities, they are separately measured and treated in most empirical studies. While few studies use the interaction term between knowledge bases, it does not reflects their actual relationships. In this study, an attempt is made to analysis and observe the regional knowledge for long periods of time. The study suggests suggesting to measure different types of expertise in science and technology of the region, as the fine-grained layers of regional knowledge bases, by using patent and publication datasets in France. Finally, we imply the new measurements to understand the relationships between regional R&D expenditure and their knowledge expertise. The results show that R&D expenditure has a positive relationship with the numbers of the scientific and technological expertise of the region; however, not to the level of expertise. The results also show that the level of technological expertise will increase if it is complementary to a specific science. |
| Keywords: | regions, science, technology, interdependence, R&D |
| JEL: | R11 O32 O34 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2004&r=all |
| By: | Tomas Cernenko; Oliver Rafaj; Daniel Dujava |
| Abstract: | We develop a model of two municipalities providing two public services. We show that in case of intermediate level of transferability of public services between two municipalities, Pareto-suboptimal Nash equilibrium exists. In this case, cooperation between municipalities or merging of two municipalities into one unit would improve welfare. |
| Keywords: | diversification, game theory, public services, specialisation |
| JEL: | C72 H11 |
| Date: | 2019–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:brt:depwps:020&r=all |
| By: | Di Maio,Michele; Leone Sciabolazza,Valerio; Molini,Vasco |
| Abstract: | This paper provides the first systematic analysis of migration to, within, and from Libya. The data used in the analysis are from the Displacement Tracking Matrix data set of the International Organization for Migration. The analysis uses this unique source of data, combining several techniques to analyze various dimensions of migration in Libya. First, the paper provides a detailed description of the demographic characteristics and national composition of the migrant populations in Libya. Next, it discusses the determinants of migration flow within Libya. The findings show that migration in Libya can be characterized as forced migration, because conflict intensity is the main determinant of the decision to relocate across provinces. Finally, the paper describes the direction, composition, and evolution of international migration flows passing through Libya and identifies the mechanisms of location selection by migrants within Libya by identifying hotspots and cluster provinces. |
| Keywords: | Social Cohesion,Social Conflict and Violence,Armed Conflict,International Migration,Human Migrations&Resettlements,Migration and Development,Labor Markets |
| Date: | 2020–01–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9110&r=all |
| By: | Lindgren, Erik (Department of Economics, Stockholm University); Pettersson-Lidbom, Per (Department of Economics, Stockholm University); Tyrefors, Björn (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze how a weighted voting system introduced in 1862, which shifted the distribution of political power from landowners to industrialists at local town meetings, affected investments in local public education. We use an event study design based on a newly constructed panel data set with annual observations of nearly 2,200 Swedish local governments over 28 years, i.e., more than 60,000 observations. Most importantly, there is no pre-trend in educational spending in our event study but rather a sharp change in the dynamic treatment effects exactly at the date when the treatment occurs, i.e., when industrialists receive more political power at town meetings. The estimated cumulative treatment effect is also economically substantial. For example, per capita spending on education increased by approximately 37% within 6 years in local governments where industrialists came to political power. Our findings are therefore consistent with the idea that political institutions are a key determinant of human capital accumulation and long-run economic development. |
| Keywords: | Political Institutions; Education; Human Capital; Development |
| JEL: | H75 I25 N34 O15 O43 |
| Date: | 2020–01–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1315&r=all |
| By: | Richard Deitz; Jaison R. Abel (National Regulatory Research Institute (Ohio State University); Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Ohio State University; Research and Statistics Group; University of Maine); Jason Bram; James A. Orr |
| Abstract: | Last October, Superstorm Sandy caused widespread destruction and massive disruptions to the regional economy, not to mention the lives of millions of residents. More than three months later, many people remain displaced, and some are still struggling to rebuild their homes, businesses, and lives. Despite these setbacks, the process of economic recovery in the region appears to be well underway, boosted by the beginning of the cleanup and restoration process. In this post, we take an initial look at the adverse impact Sandy has had on the region?s jobs, describing the nature and extent of the employment downturn and the subsequent rebound following the storm. |
| Keywords: | Superstorm Sandy; New York City Metropolitan Area; Employment |
| JEL: | R1 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:86861&r=all |
| By: | Illmann, Ulrike (TU Dresden, Germany); Kluge, Jan (Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS), Vienna, Austria,) |
| Abstract: | A comprehensive roll-out of public charging infrastructure will be costly. However, its impact on the diffusion of electric vehicles (EVs) is not clear at all. Our study aims at estimating the extent to which an increasing availability of public charging infrastructure promotes consumers’ decisions to switch to EVs. We make use of a German data set including monthly registrations of new cars at the ZIP-code level between 2012 and 2017 and match it with the official registry of charging stations. We measure charging infrastructure by its visibility, capacity and abundance in order to estimate its impact on EV adoption. A CS-ARDL approach is deployed in order to identify the structural long-run relationship between charging infrastructure and monthly EV registrations. There is evidence of a positive long-run relationship but on a rather low scale. We conclude that consumers do not necessarily react to the mere number of chargers but attach more importance to charging speed. |
| Keywords: | Electric vehicles, charging infrastructure, CS-ARDL |
| JEL: | L90 O18 O33 R42 |
| Date: | 2019–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ihs:ihswps:9&r=all |
| By: | Justino Patricia; Arjona Ana; Cárdenas Juan; Ibáñez Ana; Arteaga Julián |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the legacies of wartime institutions, measured as rebelocracy, on the ability of households to cope with negative income shocks. Rebelocracy is the social order established by non-state armed actors in the communities they control.By providing public goods and a predictable framework within which to operate, rebelocracy may generate incentives for households to expand production and accumulate wealth, placing them in a higher income trajectory than households living in war zones amid violence and chaos. If these better economic conditions persist after non-state armed actors leave the territory, households in communities that had stronger rebelocracy levels will be better able to cope with negative income shocks.The empirical strategy identifies households’ responses to random weather shocks and estimates their heterogeneous impact by the level of rebelocracy. Using a household panel in four conflict regions in Colombia, the estimation controls for time-invariant unobservables.The study finds that in regions with strong rebelocracy, households are better able to cope with negative weather shocks than those living in regions with non-state armed actor presence but with limited or no intervention. The former households face a lower economic impact of weather shocks and resort less to survival migration.The effect of rebelocracy is driven mostly by the provision of public goods by non-state armed actors. While this paper is not claiming causal impacts of rebelocracy, its coefficient estimates are robust to controlling for confounders that may explain rebelocracy in the first place. |
| Keywords: | Armed conflict,Colombia,Migration,Weather shock,Institutions |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2019-84&r=all |
| By: | Monika Banaszewska (Poznan University of Economics and Business); Ivo Bischoff (University of Kassel); Aneta Kaczynska (Poznan University of Economics and Business); Eva Wolfschuetz (University of Kassel) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims at testing whether inter-municipal cooperation (IMC) in policies to promote local business development has a positive impact on local economic performance. We apply two-way fixed effects as well as marginal structural models to a panel data set covering 1,849 Polish municipalities between 2007 and 2014. We use the unemployment rate and the rate of population growth as a proxy for local economic performance. Our results show a systematic effect of IMC on local economic performance. However, the results are contradictory. While IMC causes higher rates of population growth, they also cause higher rates of unemployment. |
| Keywords: | Inter-municipal cooperation, local business development, population decline, marginal structural models, Poland |
| JEL: | D72 H77 H80 O10 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:202005&r=all |
| By: | Kostakis, Ioannis; Lolos, Sarantis; Doulgeraki, Charikleia |
| Abstract: | This paper brings empirical evidence on the relationship between cultural heritage assets and economic growth. The case of Greece over the period 1998-2016 is taken as an example. Regional growth is approached through the formulation of a neoclassical growth model augmented with cultural heritage factors. Using panel methods of estimation, the empirical results reveal a positive impact of cultural heritage on regional growth, thus supporting a culture-led growth hypothesis for the Greek economy. In addition, a significant influence of other growth drivers such as physical and human capital, fertility and unemployment on regional growth is evidenced. Our results leave ample room for smart, inclusive and sustainable national, regional and EU policies to operate for the promotion of economic growth. |
| Keywords: | cultural heritage, regional growth, Greece |
| JEL: | O47 P25 Z1 |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:98443&r=all |
| By: | Samuel Bazzi (Boston University & NBER); Sarah Burns (Institute for Defense Analyses); Gordon Hanson (UC San Diego & NBER); Bryan Roberts (Institute for Defense Analyses); John Whitley (Institute for Defense Analyses) |
| Abstract: | Over 2008 to 2012, the U.S. Border Patrol enacted new sanctions on migrants apprehended attempting to enter the U.S. illegally. Using administrative records on apprehensions of Mexican nationals that include ngerprint-based IDs and other details, we detect if an apprehended migrant is subject to penalties and if he is later re-apprehended. Exploiting plausibly random variation in the roll-out of sanctions, we estimate econometrically that exposure to penalties reduced the 18-month re-apprehension rate for males by 4.6 to 6.1 percentage points off of a baseline rate of 24.2%. These magnitudes imply that sanctions can account for 28 to 44 percent of the observed decline in recidivism in apprehensions. Further results suggest that the drop in recidivism was associated with a reduction in attempted illegal entry. |
| Keywords: | : |
| Date: | 2019–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bos:iedwpr:dp-329&r=all |
| By: | Chen, Simiao; Jin, Zhangfeng; Prettner, Klaus |
| Abstract: | We examine whether and how retirement affects migration decisions in China. Using a regression discontinuity (RD) design approach combined with a nationally representative sample of 228,855 adults aged between 40 and 75, we find that retirement increases the probability of migration by 12.9 percentage points. Approximately 38% of the total migration effects can be attributed to inter-temporal substitution (delayed migration). Retirement-induced migrants are lower-educated and have restricted access to social security. Household-level migration decisions can reconcile different migration responses across gender. Retirees migrate for risk sharing and family protection mechnisms, reducing market production of their families in the receiving households. |
| Keywords: | Retirement,Migration decision,Regression discontinuity design |
| JEL: | J14 J26 J61 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:463&r=all |
| By: | Chhabra,Esha; Najeeb,Fatima; Raju,Dhushyanth |
| Abstract: | While most evaluations of education programs in developing countries examine effects one or two years after a program has been introduced, this study does so over an extended duration of a program. Administered in Punjab, Pakistan, the program offers cash benefits to households conditional on girls'regular attendance in secondary grades in government schools. The study evaluates the evolution of the program's effects on girls'secondary school enrollment numbers over roughly a decade of its existence. The program was targeted to districts with low adult literacy rates, a targeting mechanism that provides an observed, numerical program assignment variable and results in a cutoff value. Recent advances in regression discontinuity designs allow the study to appropriately fit key features of the data. The study finds that the program had positive effects on girls? secondary school enrollment numbers throughout the period and that these effects were stable. This pattern is observed despite a loss of more than 60 percent in the real value of the cash benefit over the period. The findings are consistent with potential behavioral explanations, such as the program making girls'education salient to households or catalyzing a shift in social norms around girls'education. |
| Date: | 2019–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:9094&r=all |
| By: | Amirapu Amrit; Asadullah Niaz; Wahhaj Zaki |
| Abstract: | Traditional gender norms can restrict independent migration by women, preventing them from taking advantage of economic opportunities in urban non-agricultural industries. However, women may be able to circumvent such restrictions by using marriage to engage in long-distance migrationâ۠if they are wealthy enough to match with the desirable migrating grooms.Guided by a model in which women make marriage and migration decisions jointly, we hypothesize that marriage and labour markets will be inextricably linked by the possibility of marital migration. We use the construction of a major bridge in Bangladeshâ۠which dramatically reduced travel time between the economically deprived north-western region and the industrial belt around Dhakaâ۠as a source of plausibly exogenous variation in migration costs.In accordance with our model’s predictions, we find that the bridge construction induced marriage-related migration (not economic migration) among rural women, but only for those women coming from families above a poverty threshold. |
| Keywords: | Marriage markets,Migration,gender norms,Female labour force participation |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2019-92&r=all |
| By: | Jean-Denis Garon (Department of Economics, University of Quebec in Montreal); Catherine Haeck (Department of Economics, University of Quebec in Montreal); Simon Bourassa-Viau (Statistics Canada) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impact of a negative trade shock on labour market outcomes and educational choices of workers. We exploit the Canadian lumber exports crisis beginning in 2007 in a quasi-experimental design. We find that the employment probability of forestry industry workers decreased by 4.1 percentage points following the crisis relative to other workers in comparable industries. While one would expect younger forestry workers to return to school in such circumstances, we find that in the first two years following the crisis, unemployed workers did not go back to school. But going back to school takes time, and after 3 to 4 years, we find that education enrollment increases by 2.5 percentage points (p=0.083). This confirms the idea that adjustments towards an increase in education enrollment are gradual, as it is easier to drop out than to enroll. In time of crisis, facilitating a return to education might be a valuable policy intervention. |
| Keywords: | education, labor demand shocks, youth, employment, unemployment |
| JEL: | I26 J23 Q33 |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grc:wpaper:20-01&r=all |
| By: | Uttley, Jim; Fotios, Steve; Lovelace, Robin |
| Abstract: | Cycling has a range of benefits as is recognised by national and international policies aiming to increase cycling rates. Darkness acts as a barrier to people cycling, with fewer people cycling after-dark when seasonal and time-of-day factors are accounted for. This paper explores whether road lighting can reduce the negative impact of darkness on cycling rates. Changes in cycling rates between daylight and after-dark were quantified for 48 locations in Birmingham, United Kingdom, by calculating an odds ratio. These odds ratios were compared against two measures of road lighting at each location: 1) Density of road lighting lanterns; 2) Relative brightness as estimated from night-time aerial images. Locations with no road lighting showed a significantly greater reduction in cycling after-dark compared with locations that had some lighting. A nonlinear relationship was found between relative brightness at a location at night and the reduction in cyclists after-dark. Small initial increases in brightness resulted in large reductions in the difference between cyclist numbers in daylight and after-dark, but this effect reached a plateau as brightness increased. These results suggest only a minimal amount of lighting may be sufficient to promote cycling after-dark. |
| Date: | 2020–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:cms3d&r=all |
| By: | James Vickery; John Campbell; Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh; David O. Lucca (Federal Reserve Bank); Andreas Fuster (Schweizerische Nationalbank; Federal Reserve Bank of New York; National Bureau of Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | Because mortgages make up the majority of household debt in most developed countries, mortgage design has important implications for macroeconomic policy and household welfare. As one example, most U.S. mortgages have fixed interest rates?if interest rates fall, existing borrowers need to refinance to lower their interest payments. In practice, households are often slow to refinance, or may not be able to do so. As a result, the transmission of U.S. monetary policy is dampened relative to countries like the United Kingdom where mortgage rates on most loans adjust automatically with short-term interest rates. In this post, we discuss some of the key takeaways from a recent conference where policymakers, academics, practitioners, and other experts convened to discuss mortgage design and consider possible mortgage market innovations. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Policy; Mortgages; Household Finance |
| JEL: | D1 R3 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:87058&r=all |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | The OECD teachers’ occupational well-being framework contributes to understanding and measuring the occupational well-being of teachers between and within systems. It provides a pathway to explore the association between the quality of working environments and teachers’ levels of occupational well-being. It also covers the association of teachers’ occupational well-being with the quality of learning environments (measured by classroom quality processes and association with students’ well-being) and teachers’ stress levels and motivation to continue teaching. |
| Date: | 2020–02–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaah:30-en&r=all |
| By: | Shulga,Ivan; Shilov,Lev; Sukhova,Anna; Pojarski,Peter Ivanov |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the performance of the Russia Local Initiatives Support Program (LISP) as an instrument for directly addressing the needs of the population to access socioeconomic infrastructure, for increasing public confidence in self-governance frameworks and institutions through dialogue and community budgeting consultations, and for strengthening the capacity for local self-governance. The paper does this by looking at historical and survey data from the implementation of the LISP methodology as part of regional programs in Russia. |
| Keywords: | Public Finance Decentralization and Poverty Reduction,Public Sector Economics,Public Financial Management,Small Private Water Supply Providers,Water Supply and Sanitation Economics,Town Water Supply and Sanitation,Water and Human Health,Social Accountability,Regional Governance,Local Government,Educational Sciences,Inequality |
| Date: | 2019–05–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:hdnspu:137448&r=all |
| By: | Seidel, André (University of Bergen, Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a new global dataset on the geocode locations of public amenities, e.g., schools, hospitals or libraries, based on OpenStreetMap data. Volunteered geocoded information can be systematically incomplete; therefore, we develop and study two new proxies for the degree of completeness of OSM data in first-level administrative regions. Using our new data, we study the effects of decentralization and ethnic divisions on the provision of public amenities associated with various public goods. We find strong evidence for the existence of collective action failure at the subnational Level worldwide. More autonomous regions with high degrees of ethnic fractionalization provide significantly fewer public amenities than others. |
| Keywords: | public goods; amenities; decentralization; ethnic fractionalization; OpenStreetMap |
| JEL: | C82 D72 H41 H75 H77 R53 |
| Date: | 2019–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bergec:2019_005&r=all |
| By: | Cingano, Federico; Tonello, Marco |
| Abstract: | Local governments suspected of Mafia infiltration can be dismissed in Italy through an administrative act not increasing formal deterrence but potentially signaling improved law enforcement among local communities. This paper finds that dismissals are associated to a persistent fall of petty crimes (e.g. thefts) but have no consequences on offenses more closely related to the activity of organized crime, as homicide, extortion, drug-trafficking or usury. Petty crimes are estimated to fall by around 10%, on average, a result that seems driven by the perception of enhanced deterrence (through media pressure, the signaling role of the policy, and other forms of social control) rather than induced by organized crime itself. |
| Keywords: | crime,law enforcement,organized crime,social control |
| JEL: | K14 K42 D73 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:458&r=all |
| By: | Richard Deitz; Jason Bram; James A. Orr; Jaison R. Abel (National Regulatory Research Institute (Ohio State University); Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Ohio State University; Research and Statistics Group; University of Maine) |
| Abstract: | As most of the New York metropolitan region begins to get back to normal following the devastation caused by superstorm Sandy, researchers and analysts are trying to assess the total ?economic cost? of the storm. But what, exactly, is meant by economic cost? Typically, those tallying up the economic cost of a disaster think of two types of costs: loss of capital (property damage and destruction) and loss of economic activity (caused by disruptions). But there is another important type of economic loss that often is not estimated or discussed in policymaking decisions: loss of welfare or deterioration in quality of life. Here we focus on how superstorm Sandy (and other such disasters) can have widespread adverse effects on quality of life, and provide some illustrations of how one can try to put an approximate dollar value on this type of cost. |
| Keywords: | natural disaster; Quality of life; Sandy; New York; New Jersey |
| JEL: | R1 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:86844&r=all |
| By: | Donghoon Lee; Olivier Armantier (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.); Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia; Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Joelle Scally; Andrew F. Haughwout; Wilbert Van der Klaauw; Gizem Koşar |
| Abstract: | The New York Fed today held a press briefing on homeownership in the United States, in connection with its release of the 2019 Survey of Consumer Expectations Housing Survey. The briefing opened with remarks from New York Fed President John Williams, who provided commentary on the macroeconomic outlook and summarized the prospects for homeownership. He noted that the labor market remains very strong and that there seems to be little evidence of inflationary pressures, meaning that the economy is on a healthy growth path. |
| Keywords: | homeownership; housing |
| JEL: | D1 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:87335&r=all |
| By: | Rajashri Chakrabarti; Nicole Gorton; Wilbert Van der Klaauw |
| Abstract: | Evidence overwhelmingly shows that the average earnings premium to having a college education is high and has risen over the past several decades, in part because of a decline in real average earnings for those without a college degree. In addition to high private returns, there are substantial social returns to having a well-educated citizenry and workforce. A new development that may have important longer-term implications for education investment and for the broader economy is a significant change in the financing of higher education. State funding has declined markedly over the past two decades, a trend that has coincided with a significant increase in college tuition. To cover the rising cost of college, students and families have increased their reliance on student loans, funding a greater share of an increasing overall college cost. While the federal student loan program has undoubtedly helped mitigate the impact of higher costs on college access and enrollment, more and more students now leave college with higher amounts of debt. Given these trends, it is critical to understand whether holding student debt has affected young Americans? later life outcomes, such as homeownership. |
| Keywords: | student loan; graduation; Homeownership; education; mortgage; degree |
| JEL: | Q1 D1 J00 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednls:87185&r=all |