|
on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Tomasz Piskorski; Amit Seru |
| Abstract: | We follow a representative panel of millions of consumers in the U.S. from 2007 to 2017 and document several facts on the long-term effects of the Great Recession. There were about six million foreclosures in the ten-year period after Lehman’s collapse. Owners of multiple homes accounted for 25% of these foreclosures, while comprising only 13% of the market. Foreclosures displaced homeowners, with most of them moving at least once. Only a quarter of foreclosed households regained homeownership, taking an average four years to do so. Despite massive stimulus and debt relief policies, recovery was slow and varied dramatically across regions. House prices, consumption and unemployment remain below pre-crisis levels in about half of the zip codes in the U.S. Regions that recovered to pre-crisis levels took on average four to five years from the depths of the Great Recession. Regional variation in the extent and speed of recovery is strongly related to frictions affecting the pass-through of lower interest rates and debt relief to households including mortgage contract rigidity, refinancing constraints, and the organizational capacity of intermediaries to conduct loan renegotiations. A simple counterfactual based on our estimates suggest that, regardless of the narratives of the causes of housing boom and bust, alleviating these frictions could have reduced the relative foreclosure rate by more than half and resulted in up to twice as fast recovery of house prices, consumption, and employment. Our findings have implications for mortgage market design, monetary policy pass-through, and macro-prudential and housing policy interventions. |
| JEL: | E44 G01 G2 G28 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25403&r=all |
| By: | Chaminade, Cristina (Lund University); Bellandi, Marco (University of Florence); Plechero, Monica (University of Florence); Santini, Erica (Fondazione per la Ricerca e l’Innovazione) |
| Abstract: | The type of regional innovation system (RIS) strongly affects possibilities of paths of industrial transformation. This paper argues that traditional manufacturing districts, corresponding to specialized RISs and characterised by various nuclei of specialization and know-how, may foster different trajectories in combination with extra-regional networks. In particular, the paper analyses the interplay between regional and national innovation systems, providing an overview of the effect that different multilevel dynamics have on local trajectories. The cases of the textile districts in Prato (Italy) and Borås (Sweden) show SRISs can display not only path extension but also path renewal and creation strategies. |
| Keywords: | path development; regional innovation system; textile; knowledge nuclei; innovation policy; industrial district |
| JEL: | O19 O30 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2018–12–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2018_013&r=all |
| By: | Miquel-Àngel Garcia-López (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona); Ana I. Moreno-Monroy (OECD) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effect of urban spatial structure on income segregation in Brazilian cities between 2000 and 2010. Our results show that, first, local density conditions increase income segregation: the effect is higher in monocentric cities and smaller in polycentric ones. Second, the degree of monocentricity-polycentricity also affects segregation: while a higher concentration of jobs in and around the CBD decreases segregation in monocentric cities, a higher employment concentration in and around subcenters located far from the CBD decreases segregation in polycentric cities. Third, results are heterogeneous according to city size: local density does not increase segregation in small (monocentric) cities, it increases segregation in medium size cities, and it decreases segregation in large (polycentric) cities. Finally, results also differ between income groups: while local density conditions increase the segregation of the poor, a more polycentric configuration reduces the segregation of the rich. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2018-17&r=all |
| By: | Weiran Huang (City of New York); Ashlyn Nelson (University of Indiana); Stephen L. Ross (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | This paper tests for the spillover effects of foreclosure within broad neighborhoods. The best evidence that foreclosures have causal, spillover effects on housing prices and future foreclosures suggest highly localized spillover effects that are modest in magnitude, but these effects could multiply when the density of spillovers is high leading to larger aggregate effects in broader neighborhoods. We test this proposition by developing a proxy for the fraction of housing units/mortgages that are expected to be in negative equity during the crises. This proxy exploits the timing of purchases in each tract during the run up to the crisis, and we show that our source of identification, within tract variation in purchases over time, is not predicted the observed mortgage attributes. Our estimates suggest that 67 percent of the increase in the across tract dispersion in the recording of new foreclosure recordings can be explained by the spillover effects of the contemporaneous stock of foreclosures. |
| Keywords: | Foreclosure, Negative Equity, Neighborhood Spillovers, Mortgages, Housing Crisis |
| JEL: | G2 R2 R3 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2018-23&r=all |
| By: | Elena Rusticelli; David Haugh; Axelle Arquie; Lilas Demmou |
| Abstract: | The increase of emerging market economies in international trade and rapid rise in global trade intensity over the past three decades has been accompanied by growing, regionally concentrated, discontent with trade in advanced OECD countries. One of the main concerns is the negative effects of growing import competition on employment. This paper focuses on manufacturing sector employment because of its high trade exposure and potential for wider spillovers. It finds that while trade appears to have only a minor association with manufacturing employment shares at the national level compared with technology, trade has an important role in regional labour market developments due to the geographical concentration of industrial activities. The "sticky" nature of manufacturing employment and sometimes inefficient inter-regional migration mean that trade shocks to local manufacturing can affect entire regional labour markets, leading to widening regional inequalities. Policies should, in particular, focus on boosting regional resilience to industry related shocks, whether they come from trade or technology by building local capacity, both in terms of people – more educated labour is more mobile across jobs – and innovation. |
| Keywords: | employment, inequality, labour market, manufacturing, regions, technology, trade, wages |
| JEL: | F16 J61 O19 |
| Date: | 2018–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1530-en&r=all |
| By: | Cumming, Fergus (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the local impact of monetary policy through the cash-flow channel during the Crisis by combining novel micro datasets with near-universal coverage of UK mortgages and employment. I estimate that a reduction in mortgage payments equivalent to 1% of household income led to around a 5 percentage point increase in employment growth in non-tradable businesses the following year. But the spatial distribution of mortgage and labour market structures resulted in significant heterogeneity of this effect across the country. Taken at face value, the estimates suggest that the overall effect of accommodative monetary policy on total employment growth in 2010 varied by around 1.5 percentage points across regions. |
| Keywords: | Mortgages; interest rates; monetary policy; employment |
| JEL: | E21 E52 G21 |
| Date: | 2018–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:0773&r=all |
| By: | Nitzan Tzur-Ilan (Bank of Israel) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the effects of the hard loan-to-value (LTV) limit implemented in Israel in 2012, which had three different cutoffs according to the borrower type: first-time home buyer, upgrader, or investor. The paper tries to overcome identification challenges where the treatment status is not observed. I find that this macroprudential policy measure succeeded in achieving its main goal, which was to reduce borrowers' leverage. I also find that constrained borrowers bought assets farther from the center of Israel, in neighborhoods with lower socioeconomic rankings; and a much stronger response than the impact of the 2010 soft LTV limit. Investors were found to be the borrower type most affected by the LTV limit. In terms of the credit market, the effect of the LTV limit on mortgage terms is counterintuitive: the limit increased the interest rate and the term to maturity. Plausible explanations for those results are discussed. |
| Keywords: | LTV, mortgages, housing |
| JEL: | E58 E61 G18 G21 R28 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boi:wpaper:2018.12&r=all |
| By: | Kellermann, Kim Leonie; Winter, Simon |
| Abstract: | We empirically examine the relationship between shares of foreigners in a district and the share of votes cast in that district for the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), the major anti-immigrant party in the 2017 German parliamentary election. The classic theory on the political economy of migration supposes that immigration fosters opposing sentiments among the natives due to fiercer competition for jobs, housing and public goods. Notably, the vote distribution in the 2017 election suggests that AfD vote shares are higher in districts with fewer foreign inhabitants. We exploit administrative data on election results and district-specific features to study a potentially causal effect. As the share of foreigners in a district may be endogenous, we apply an IV approach, using the number of working permits as an instrument for the share of foreign residents. Our results corroborate the Contact Theory, which states that more intensive exposure to and contact with immigrants reduce the propensity for anti-immigrant voting. We find that a 10 % increase in the population share of foreigners is associated with a 2.6 % lower vote share for the AfD. By contrast, a strong increase in the number of asylum seekers positively adds to AfD support. |
| Keywords: | migration,anti-immigrant parties,contact theory,ethnic competition,economic competition |
| JEL: | D72 D91 J15 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ciwdps:52018&r=all |
| By: | Monras, Joan |
| Abstract: | How does the US labor market absorb low-skilled immigration? I address this question using the 1995 Mexican Peso Crisis, an exogenous push factor that raised Mexican migration to the US. In the short run, high-immigration locations see their low-skilled labor force increase and native low-skilled wages decrease, with an implied inverse local labor demand elasticity of at least -.7. Mexican immigration also leads to an increase in the relative price of rentals. Internal relocation dissipates this shock spatially. In the long run, the only lasting consequences are a) lower wages and employment rates for low-skilled natives who entered the labor force in high-immigration years, and b) lower housing prices in high-immigrant locations, since Mexican immigrant workers disproportionately enter the construction sector and lower construction costs. I use a quantitative dynamic spatial equilibrium many-region model to obtain the counterfactual local wage evolution absent the immigration shock, to analyze the role of unilateral state level immigrant restrictive laws, and to study the role of housing markets. |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13394&r=all |
| By: | Bergantino, Angela Stefania; Capozza, Claudia; Intini, Mario |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the nature of price variation in the retail gasoline sector with a novel approach. An empirical model is proposed that jointly analyses: i) the spatial interaction between stations in price setting; ii) the direct and the indirect effect of local competition on prices; iii) the role of territorial factors, generally neglected in the studies on gasoline prices. For all these purposes, variables at sub-municipal level are constructed. The results of the empirical model, tested on the city of Rome, confirm the spatial price interaction across stations. Moreover, evidence of direct and indirect effects of local competition on prices is found: the competitive forces acting in the gasoline sector are not bounded within a local market but they spill over across local markets. Micro-territorial variables turn out to have a sizeable influence on prices, particularly the real estate value. When these variables are added to the model, the strength of spatial interaction weakens. This suggests that including micro-territorial variables in the empirical specification strongly contributes to explain the variation of gasoline prices and to accurately detect the spatial dependence. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sit:wpaper:18_5&r=all |
| By: | Nchimunya Hamukoma; Nicola Doyle; Archimedes Muzenda |
| Abstract: | The twin cities of Rabat and Salé on Morocco’s west coast embody prominence in Morocco’s past and present, Rabat as capital and Salé as the third most populous city. Less than 20 years ago, however, Salé was charac¬terised by large slums, high unemployment, poor service delivery and limited mobility. Today, it is a changed city, providing housing to the majority of Rabat’s working class, with a modern tram linking the two cities. Morocco’s ‘Cities without Slums’ programme, launched in 2004, has changed the face of cities across the country. With 60 per cent of the population now living in urban areas, this heroic effort, underpinned by strong economic growth, offers lessons to other African cities facing rapid urbanisation and social unrest. In Rabat and Salé, a shift towards decentralised governance and a clear focus on encouraging private invest¬ment in infrastructure projects have also contributed to rapid improvement. This Paper investigates the success and shortcomings of Rabat and Salé in the areas of governance, security, economic growth, housing, transportation and service delivery. The story of these cities show that while history is important, it is not deterministic, and that with a combination of consistent urban policy, strong leadership and effective public-private partnerships, it is possible to turn a city around within 20 years. |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:rpaper:p1812&r=all |
| By: | Jean-William Laliberté (University of Calgary) |
| Abstract: | To what extent do differences in educational outcomes across neighborhoods reflect discrepancies in local school quality? This paper decomposes total childhood exposure effects – the causal effect of growing up in a better area – into separate school and non-school neighborhood components. To do so, it brings together two research designs. First, I implement a spatial regression-discontinuity design to estimate school effects. Second, I study students who move across neighborhoods in Montreal during childhood to estimate total exposure effects. I find that total exposure effects on educational attainment are large, but that between 50% and 70% of the long-term benefits of moving to a better area are due to access to better schools rather than to neighborhoods themselves. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:clg:wpaper:2019-01&r=all |
| By: | Bergbauer, Annika B. (ifo Institute at the University of Munich); Hanushek, Eric A. (Hoover Institution, Stanford University, CESifo, IZA, and NBER); Woessmann, Ludger (University of Munich, ifo Institute, CESifo,IZA and CAGE) |
| Abstract: | School systems regularly use student assessments for accountability purposes. But, as highlighted by our conceptual model, different configurations of assessment usage generate performance-conducive incentives of different strengths for different stakeholders in different school environments. We build a dataset of over 2 million students in 59 countries observed over 6 waves in the international PISA student achievement test 2000-2015. Our empirical model exploits the country panel dimension to investigate reforms in assessment systems over time, where identification comes from taking out country and year fixed effects along with a rich set of student, school, and country measures. We find that the expansion of standardized external comparisons, both school-based and student-based, is associated with improvements in student achievement. The effect of school-based comparison is stronger in countries with initially low performance. Similarly, standardized monitoring without external comparison has a positive effect in initially poorly performing countries. By contrast, the introduction of solely internal testing and internal teacher monitoring including inspectorates does not affect student achievement. Our findings point out the pitfalls of overly broad generalizations from specific country testing systems. |
| Keywords: | student assessment, testing, accountability, student achievement, international, PISAJEL Classification: I28, H52, L15, D82, P51 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:392&r=all |
| By: | Vellekoop, Nathanael |
| Abstract: | A number of recent studies have concluded that consumer spending patterns over the month are closely linked to the timing of income receipt. This correlation is interpreted as evidence of hyperbolic discounting. I re-examine patterns of spending in the diary sample of the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey, incorporating information on the timing of the main consumption commitment for most households { their monthly rent or mortgage payment. I find that non-durable and food spending increase with 30-48% on the day housing payments are made, with smaller increases in the days after. Moreover, households with weekly, biweekly and monthly income streams but the same timing of rent/mortgage payments have very similar consumption patterns. Exploiting variation in income, I find that households with extra liquidity decrease non-durable spending around housing payments, especially those households with a large budget share of housing. |
| Keywords: | consumption,consumption commitments,paycheck frequency,liquidity |
| JEL: | D12 D14 E21 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:237&r=all |
| By: | Shin, Hyun Bang |
| Abstract: | Despite significant contributions made to progressive urban politics, contemporary debates on cities and social justice are in need of adequately capturing the local historical and socio-political processes of how people have come to perceive the concept of rights in their struggles against the hegemonic establishments. These limitations act as constraints on overcoming hegemony imposed by the ruling class on subordinate classes, and restrict a contextual understanding of such concepts as ‘the right to the city’ in non-Western contexts,undermining the potential to produce locally tuned alternative strategies to build progressive and just cities. In this regard,this paper discusses the evolving nature of urban rights discourses that were produced by urban protesters fighting redevelopment and displacement, paying a particular attention to the experiences in Seoul that epitomised speculative urban accumulation under the (neoliberalising) developmental state. Method-wise, the paper makes use of archival records (protesters’ pamphlets and newsletters), photographs and field research archives. The data are supplemented by the author’s in-depth interviews with housing activists and former evictees. The paper argues that the urban poor has the capacity to challenge the state repression and hegemony of the ruling class ideology; that the urban movements such as the evictees’ struggles against redevelopment are to be placed in the broader contexts of social movements;that concepts such as the right to the city are to be understood against the rich history of place-specific evolution of urban rights discourses; that cross-class alliance is key to sustaining urban movements. |
| Keywords: | urban movements; rights discourses; urban protests; Seoul; displacement |
| JEL: | R14 J01 |
| Date: | 2018–02–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:84866&r=all |
| By: | Jesse Kalinowski (Quinnipiac University); Matthew B. Ross (New York University); Stephen L. Ross (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses state police stop data in Texas to assess patrol activity. We find that both the types of stops and the allocation of resources over space change in darkness relative to daylight, and that the changes in stop type and manpower allocation are correlated within police officers. We also find that the counties receiving more police resources in darkness have a higher share of minority residents. Veil of Darkness (VOD) tests of racial discrimination in traffic stops require that the distribution of motorists be independent of darkness, which is unlikely to be the case without detailed geographic controls. |
| Keywords: | Police, Traffic Stops, Patrol Locations, Veil of Darkness, Racial Profiling, Racial Discrimination |
| JEL: | K14 K42 J15 H11 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2018-22&r=all |
| By: | Sarah Hofmann (WifOR Darmstadt); Andrea Mühlenweg (WifOR Darmstadt) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we analyze health effects of a recent education reform in Germany exposing students to increased schooling intensity. The reform shortened the higher secondary education track by one year. As the overall curriculum required for graduation was held constant, this led to an increase in instruction hours in the remaining school years. The reform has been introduced at different points in time across federal states, providing us with a difference-in-difference setup for analysis. Based on data from the German SocioEconomic Panel Study (SOEP), our results imply that the reform significantly reduced adolescents’ self-rated mental health status. The overall effect on the mental component summary score (MCS) is about a quarter of a standard deviation. Examining MCS subdimensions, we find detrimental effects of the reform on vitality and on emotional balance. We also observe significant impacts on self-assessed general physical health. |
| Keywords: | Adolescent health, schooling intensity, school reform, natural experiment |
| JEL: | J24 I14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:duh:wpaper:1707&r=all |
| By: | Ofer Malamud; Santiago Cueta; Julian Cristia; Diether W. Beuermann |
| Abstract: | This paper provides experimental evidence for the impact of home internet access on a broad range of child outcomes in Peru. We compare children who were randomly chosen to receive laptops with high-speed internet access to (i) those who did not receive laptops and (ii) those who only received laptops without internet. We find that providing free internet access led to improved computer and internet proficiency relative to those without laptops and improved internet proficiency compared to those with laptops only. However, there were no significant effects of internet access on math and reading achievement, cognitive skills, self-esteem, teacher perceptions, or school grades when compared to either group. We explore reasons for the absence of impacts on these key outcomes with survey questions, time-diaries, and computer logs. |
| Keywords: | internet, children, education, skills, experimental, Peru |
| JEL: | I21 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7384&r=all |
| By: | Arnaud Herault (Granem - Groupe de Recherche ANgevin en Economie et Management - UA - Université d'Angers - AGROCAMPUS OUEST - Institut National de l'Horticulture et du Paysage); Eva Moreno-Galbis (AMSE - Aix-Marseille Sciences Economiques - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AMU - Aix Marseille Université - ECM - Ecole Centrale de Marseille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); François-Charles Wolff (LEMNA - Laboratoire d'économie et de management de Nantes Atlantique - IEMN-IAE Nantes - Institut d'Économie et de Management de Nantes - Institut d'Administration des Entreprises - Nantes - UN - Université de Nantes - IUML - FR 3473 Institut universitaire Mer et Littoral - UM - Le Mans Université - UA - Université d'Angers - UN - Université de Nantes - ECN - École Centrale de Nantes - UBS - Université de Bretagne Sud - IFREMER - Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, INED - Institut national d'études démographiques) |
| Abstract: | There is a large consensus in the literature on the major role of social networks as a helpful instrument to find a job. In this paper, we study the social network matching rate along the economic cycle both from a theoretical and empirical perspective. Using the French Labor Force Survey for the period 2003-2012, we find that the relationship between the network matching rate based on direct ties and the job finding rate is decreasing and convex as predicted by our theoretical setup. Results are completely modified when we consider a measure of the network matching rate based on indirect ties related to the share of peers in a job. In this case, we find a linearly increasing relation between the network matching rate and the job finding rate. This underlines not only the heterogeneous ways through which network membership may influence the individuals' performance on the labor market, but also the different behaviors of these driving factors along the economic cycle. |
| Keywords: | employment,network matching rate,direct and indirect ties,job finding rate,immigrants |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01935582&r=all |
| By: | Tho V. Le; Junyi Zhang; Makoto Chikaraishi; Akimasa Fujiwara |
| Abstract: | To analyze the influence of introducing the High-Speed Railway (HSR) system on business and non-business travel behavior, this study develops an integrated inter-city travel demand model to represent trip generations, destination choice, and travel mode choice behavior. The accessibility calculated from the RP/SP (Revealed Preference/Stated Preference) combined nested logit model of destination and mode choices is used as an explanatory variable in the trip frequency models. One of the important findings is that additional travel would be induced by introducing HSR. Our simulation analyses also reveal that HSR and conventional airlines will be the main modes for middle distances and long distances, respectively. The development of zones may highly influence the destination choices for business purposes, while prices of HSR and Low-Cost Carriers affect choices for non-business purposes. Finally, the research reveals that people on non-business trips are more sensitive to changes in travel time, travel cost and regional attributes than people on business trips. |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1812.04184&r=all |
| By: | Renaud Bourlès (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, EHESS, Centrale Marseille, AMSE); Yann Bramoullé (Aix-Marseille Univ., CNRS, EHESS, Centrale Marseille, AMSE); Eduardo Perez-Richet (Sciences Po Paris & CEPR) |
| Abstract: | We provide the first analysis of the risk-sharing implications of altruism networks. Agents are embedded in a fixed network and care about each other. We study whether altruistic transfers help smooth consumption and how this depends on the shape of the network. We identify two benchmarks where altruism networks generate efficient insurance: for any shock when the network of perfect altruism is strongly connected and for any small shock when the network of transfers is weakly connected. We show that the extent of informal insurance depends on the average path length of the altruism network and that small shocks are partially insured by endogenous risk-sharing communities. We uncover complex structural effects. Under iid incomes, central agents tend to be better insured, the consumption correlation between two agents is positive and tends to decrease with network distance, and a new link can decrease or increase the consumption variance of indirect neighbors. Overall, we show that altruism in networks has a first-order impact on risk and generates specific patterns of consumption smoothing. |
| Keywords: | altruism, networks, risk sharing, Informal Insurance |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:1838&r=all |
| By: | Klyachko, Tatiana (Клячко, Татьяна) (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Avraamova, Elena (Авраамова, Елена) (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Loginov, Dmitriy (Логинов, Дмитрий) (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Polushkina, Elena (Полушкина, Елена) (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Semionova, Elena (Семионова, Елена) (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Tokareva, Galina (Токарева, Галина) (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Interregional monitoring of the effectiveness of the school is conducted by the Center for Continuing Education Economics of the Institute of Applied Economic Research of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Service under the President of the Russian Federation. Within the monitoring, a sociological survey of the parents of students, teachers and school principals of different types of settlements in the subjects of the Russian Federation, differentiated according to the criteria of social and economic development is carried out. This issue presents the results of a survey of parents of schoolchildren held in Voronezh, Ivanovo, Sverdlovsk, Chelyabinsk regions, Altai and Stavropol regions in 2013-2017, revealing the respondents' attitude to the organization of additional education, its place in the system of educational results of schoolchildren. |
| Keywords: | MONITORING, EFFICIENCY OF SCHOOL EDUCATION, ADDITIONAL EDUCATION, FAMILIES OF SCHOOLCHILDREN |
| JEL: | I21 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:081801&r=all |
| By: | Benoît Desmarchelier (CLERSE - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Faridah Djellal (CLERSE - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Faïz Gallouj (CLERSE - Centre Lillois d’Études et de Recherches Sociologiques et Économiques - UMR 8019 - Université de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This article is devoted to a new network form that is developing within the New Public Governance paradigm, namely "Public Service Innovation Networks" (PSINs). PSINs are multi-agent collaborative arrangements that develop within public services (sectoral perspective) or within public service (functional perspective), spontaneously or at the instigation of local, national or European public policies. They mobilize a variable number of public and private agents, especially citizens, to co-produce innovations and ultimately contribute to value co-creation. This article aims to deepen the definition and description of PSINs, especially in comparison with other known network forms, and to examine in particular how PSINs are formed and function to co-create, more or less efficiently, value in public service(s) through innovation. |
| Keywords: | public service,network,innovation,value,co-creation,co-production,collaboration |
| Date: | 2018–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01934284&r=all |
| By: | Florian Knauth; Jens Wrona |
| Abstract: | We present supportive empirical evidence and a new theoretical explanation for the negative selection into planned return migration between similar regions in Germany. In our model costly temporary and permanent migration are used as imperfect signals to indicate workers’ high but otherwise unobservable skills. Production thereby takes place in teams with individual skills as strategic complements. Wages therefore are determined by team performance and not by individual skill, which is why migration inflicts a wage loss on all workers, who expect the quality of their co-workers to decline. In order to internalise this negative migration externality, which leads to sub-optimally high levels of temporary and permanent migration in a laissezfaire equilibrium, we propose a mix of two policy instruments, which reduce initial outmigration while at the same time inducing later return migration. |
| Keywords: | return migration, signalling, selection, strategic complementarity, matching |
| JEL: | R23 J61 D82 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7388&r=all |
| By: | Manuel Barron (Universidad del Pacífico) |
| Abstract: | In the developing world, weather conditions during gestation affect fetal development and birth outcomes, as well as early childhood development, largely because weather fluctuations affect food availability, and accessibility to healthcare facilities. This study estimates the effect of in-utero temperature shocks on learning outcomes in school. To this end, I exploit data on 950,000 second grade students in Peru who took the national student evaluation between 2014 and 2016, paired with data on weather conditions during gestation in their district of birth. In-utero temperature shocks reduce significantly learning outcomes in communication and mathematics. Temperature shocks increase the probability of being classified as remedial in math by 2 percentage points, and decrease the likelihood of obtaining a satisfactory grade by a similar magnitude. I find heterogeneity in these effects, with cool regions more severely affected by cold shocks, and warm regions more severely affected by hot shocks. |
| Keywords: | Climate change, Human capital formation, in-utero shocks |
| JEL: | I12 I21 J16 O15 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:apc:wpaper:137&r=all |
| By: | Calem, Paul S. (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Lambie-Hanson, Lauren (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Nakamura, Leonard I. (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Kenney, Jeanna (The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | Home appraisals are produced for millions of residential mortgage transactions each year, but appraised values are rarely below the purchase contract price: Some 30% of appraisals in our sample are exactly at the home price (with less than 10% of them below it). We lay out a basic theoretical framework to explain how appraisers’ incentives within the institutional framework that governs mortgage lending lead to information loss in appraisals (that is, appraisals set equal to the contract price). Consistent with the theory, we observe a higher frequency of appraisal equal to contract price and a higher incidence of mortgage default at loan-to-value boundaries (notches) above which mortgage insurance rates increase. Appraisals appear to be less informative for default risk measurement compared with automated valuation models. |
| Keywords: | information; mortgage; regulation; appraisal; mortgage default; foreclosure |
| JEL: | D81 G14 G21 G28 L85 |
| Date: | 2018–12–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:18-28&r=all |
| By: | Le, Kien; Nguyen, My |
| Abstract: | This paper provides evidence that the Allied bombing of Vietnam, the longest and heaviest aerial bombardment in the history, imposed detrimental effects on educational attainment of school-age individuals. By exploiting the plausibly exogenous district-by-cohort variation in bomb destruction under a difference-in-differences framework, we find that an increase in bomb intensity leads to significantly fewer educational years completed by school-age children exposed to the bombardment. A series of robustness checks, falsification tests, and the instrumental-variable strategy further support our results. The findings underline the importance of policies targeting children after wartime. |
| Keywords: | Vietnam War, large-scale destruction, aerial bombardment, human capital |
| JEL: | I20 I21 J24 |
| Date: | 2018–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:90766&r=all |
| By: | William F. Bassett; Jose M. Berrospide |
| Abstract: | We investigate one channel through which the annual bank stress tests, as part of the Federal Reserve’s Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) review, could unexpectedly affect the provision of bank credit. To quantify the impact of the stress tests on lending, we compare the capital implied by the supervisory stress tests with the level of capital implied by the banks’ own models, a measure we call the capital gap. We then study the impact of the capital gap on the loan growth of BHCs subject to supervisory or bank-run stress tests. Consistent with previous results in the bank capital literature, we find evidence that better capitalized banks have higher loan growth. The additional capital implied by the supervisory stress tests (capital gap) does not appear to unduly restrict loan growth. |
| Keywords: | Bank capital ; Bank lending ; Regulatory capital ; Stress tests |
| JEL: | G28 G21 |
| Date: | 2018–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2018-87&r=all |
| By: | Cermeño, Alexandra; Enflo, Kerstin |
| Abstract: | Town foundations have been at the core of urban planning since the onset of civilization. This paper describes the long-run impact of an urbanization place-based policy that was considered a failure by contemporary policymakers. We test the impact of founded towns using a series of town foundations that took place between 1570 and 1810, when the Swedish Crown conferred monopoly market rights to trade upon 31 previously rural ordinary parishes. We show that towns were founded in locations with little natural potential, evident in their limited impact on agricultural surplus in the surrounding hinterlands. However, the new foundations drove extensive growth in terms of population and created positive spillover effects up to 40-50 km around the settlements. Still, the founded towns remained extraordinarily small by the end of the policy period. It was not until the Industrial Revolution that these towns began to thrive. We suggest that trading rights and sunk investments initially served to coordinate expectations about future growth. Once the towns started to grow, agglomeration effects generated persistence in the long term. |
| Keywords: | agricultural surplus; Economic Geography; economic history; path dependency; Urbanization |
| JEL: | N74 N93 O18 R12 R5 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13392&r=all |
| By: | Brian Bell; Jack Blundell; Stephen Machin |
| Abstract: | Does the importance of your family background on how far you get in adulthood also depend on where you grow up? For many countries, Britain included, a paucity of data has made this a question with very little reliable evidence to answer. To redress this evidence lacuna, we present a new analysis of intergenerational mobility across three cohorts in England and Wales using linked decennial census microdata. As well as testing the robustness of existing survey evidence on mobility trends over time, this large dataset permits analysis to be undertaken at a more geographically disaggregated level than was previously feasible. Evidence is presented on occupational wages, home ownership and education. Our new analysis shows a slight decline in occupation-wage mobility and a substantial decline in home ownership mobility over the late 20th century in England and Wales, while the picture for educational mobility is less clear. Focusing on the most recent cohort, we find marked geographic differences in mobility. We find that occupation-wage mobility is exceptionally high in London, while ex-industrial and mining areas experience the lowest rates of mobility. Areas with low occupation-wage mobility were more likely to vote to leave the European Union in the 2016 referendum. Home ownership mobility is negatively correlated with house prices and not correlated with occupation-wage mobility, suggesting that geographical comparisons based on one dimension of mobility need not always align with those based on alternative measures. |
| JEL: | J62 R23 R31 I24 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1591&r=all |
| By: | Elena Korchmina (New York University Abu Dhabi) |
| Abstract: | How can developing countries successfully implement income taxes, which are generally desirable but costly to collect? This paper analyses the income tax compliance of elites in a developing country with a low administrative capacity, drawing attention to the role of either voluntary or quasi-voluntary components of tax acquiescence. In 1812, the Russian government introduced the progressive income tax, with the highest tax rate of 10 per cent. After Britain, the Russian Empire became the second country to adopt this levy – under the threat of Napoleonic invasion. Unlike the widely known and deeply investigated British case, the history of Russian income tax suffers from a lack of detailed research. I use a self-compiled unique dataset for estimating the level of tax compliance of the Russian noble elite at the individual level. The dataset is based on the self-reported tax returns of approximately 4,000 Russian aristocrats who had real estate in the Moscow region. Using narrative sources and crosschecking with official bank documents, I reveal not only that the Russian nobility declared reliable income information but also that the share of aristocratic evaders was relatively low (from 30 to 10 per cent). I argue that this surprisingly high level of tax compliance was achieved through a unique mechanism of tax collection involving the channels of social sanctioning and group identity, boosted by the national threat of Napoleonic invasion. This case could be considered as extremely important, insofar as the state could not achieve its fiscal aims due to coercive tools in the hands of bureaucracy but had to rely on subjects’ goodwill. |
| Keywords: | Russia, income tax, elite, nineteenth-century. |
| JEL: | H2 N93 N33 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0144&r=all |
| By: | Schneiderheinze, Claas; Dick, Eva; Lücke, Matthias; Rahim, Afaf; Schraven, Benjamin; Villa, Matteo |
| Abstract: | Regional migration within Africa and other developing regions is vital for the economic development of countries of origin and destination and for the welfare of migrants and their families (as recognized by the Sustainable Development Goal 10.7). Going forward, regional migration will be a crucial tool for countries of origin and destination to adapt to demographic trends and environmental changes. Although regional organizations have invested increasing efforts in the promotion of orderly, safe and regular migration, they have received scant acknowledgment in international policies and processes. Yet, they are the most important and most promising entities to promote more liberal migration regimes. The international community, and G20 countries in particular, should support capacity building for these regional organizations and involve them fully in relevant policy dialogues. |
| Keywords: | international migration governance,regional migration,regional integration,African migration |
| JEL: | F22 F55 O19 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201882&r=all |
| By: | Fouarge, Didier (ROA / Dynamics of the labour market); Özer, Merve Nezihe (General Economics 0 (Onderwijs)); Seegers, Philipp (General Economics 2 (Macro)) |
| Abstract: | Personality traits are influential in individual decision-making but have been overlooked in economic models of migration. This paper investigates the relation between Big Five personality traits and individuals’ migration intentions among alternative destinations that vary in their culture distance. We hypothesize that Big Five personality traits may alter individuals’ migration decision and destination choice through their influence on perceived psychic costs and benefits of migration. We test our hypotheses using the Fachkraft survey conducted among university students in Germany. We find that extraversion and openness are positively associated with migration intentions, while agreeableness, conscientiousness, and emotional stability negatively relate to migration intentions. We show that openness positively and extraversion negatively relate to the willingness to move to culturally distant countries even when we control for geographic distance and economic differences between countries. Using language as a cultural distance indicator provides evidence that extravert individuals are less likely to prefer linguistically distant countries while agreeable individuals are more inclined to consider such countries as alternative destinations. |
| Keywords: | migration intention, destination choice, cultural distance, Big Five personality traits |
| JEL: | D91 J61 Z10 |
| Date: | 2018–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umagsb:2018028&r=all |
| By: | Daniel Goya; Andrés Zahler |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of different types of barriers to innovation (financial, demand, knowledge, market, cooperation, and regulatory barriers) on firm level innovation inputs and outputs. Using a pooled sample of three Chilean innovation surveys, based on an instrumental variables approach, we find that the probability of generating innovation outcomes is significantly reduced by demand and financial barriers. Regarding inputs for innovation, we find a clear negative relationship between financial and demand obstacles and the propensity to incur (non-R&D) innovation expenditures, but not with its intensity. We also provide evidence of heterogeneous effects across sectors, finding that knowledge obstacles are relevant for manufacturing and market structure obstacles for services, while demand and financial obstacles appear to matter across the board. |
| Keywords: | Financial and non-financial barriers to innovation, sectoral heterogeneity in innovation barriers, potential innovators, instrumental variables. |
| JEL: | D22 O31 O32 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucv:wpaper:2018-02&r=all |
| By: | Robert Waschik; Jonathan Chew; John Madden; Joshua Sidgwick; Glyn Wittwer |
| Abstract: | The study analyses the impacts of selected regional universities on regional economies within Australia using a multi-regional CGE model, VU-TERM. Universities enhance a community's knowledge base through teaching and research, raising productivity within the region. To depict the regional economic contribution of universities, we simulate a hypothetical removal of regional campuses. We estimate demand-side shocks using expenditure patterns of university enrolees. Supply-side impacts use inputs from econometric studies estimating rates-of-return to levels of educational attainment. Armidale's local economy is hit hardest by a hypothetical removal of its university. Other regions suffering substantial losses include Ballarat, Toowoomba and Rockhampton. |
| Keywords: | CGE Modelling, Regional Universities, Economic Contribution |
| JEL: | C68 O18 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-286&r=all |
| By: | Isa Hafalir (University of Technology Sydney); Fohita Kojima (Stanford University); M. Bumin Yenmez (Boston College) |
| Abstract: | Interdistrict school choice programs—where a student can be assigned to a school outside of her district—are widespread in the US, yet the market-design literature has not considered such programs. We introduce a model of interdistrict school choice and present two mechanisms that produce stable or efficient assignments. We consider three cate- gories of policy goals on assignments and identify when the mechanisms can achieve them. By introducing a novel framework of interdistrict school choice, we provide a new avenue of research in market design. |
| Keywords: | Interdistrict school choice, student assignment, stability, efficiency. |
| Date: | 2018–12–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boc:bocoec:970&r=all |
| By: | Klyachko, Tatiana (Клячко, Татьяна) (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Avraamova, Elena (Авраамова, Елена) (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Loginov, Dmitriy (Логинов, Дмитрий) (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Polushkina, Elena (Полушкина, Елена) (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Semionova, Elena (Семионова, Елена) (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Tokareva, Galina (Токарева, Галина) (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Interregional monitoring of the effectiveness of the school is conducted by the Center for Continuing Education Economics of the Institute of Applied Economic Research of the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of the Russian Federation. Within the monitoring, a sociological survey of the parents of students, teachers and school principals of different types of settlements in the subjects of the Russian Federation, differentiated according to the criteria of social and economic development is carried out. This issue presents the results of a survey of teachers and parents of schoolchildren held in Chelyabinsk region, Altai and Stavropol regions in 2018, revealing the respondents' attitude to problems of school success and failure. |
| Keywords: | MONITORING, EFFICIENCY OF SCHOOL EDUCATION, ADDITIONAL EDUCATION, TEACHERS, FAMILIES OF SCHOOLCHILDREN |
| JEL: | I21 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:ppaper:111808&r=all |
| By: | Giovanni Immordino (Università di Napoli Federico II and CSEF); Salvatore Piccolo (Università di Bergamo and CSEF); Paolo Roberti (Università di Bergamo) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the relationship between competition and self-reporting incentives within a criminal network formed by a supplier of an illegal good and two dealers distributing the good to final consumers. The Legislator designs a leniency program to deter crime. We show that the comparison between the optimal amnesty with competition and monopoly in the dealership market depends on the strength of the externalities between dealers at the reporting stage. While in monopoly a leniency program is al- ways feasible, the opposite may happen with competition. This impossibility result is more relevant when the demand for the illegal product is large, when the market is neither too competitive nor too concentrated and when dealers know too much about each other. Moreover, in contrast to monopoly, the policy does not necessarily increase welfare in a competitive environment. |
| Keywords: | Accomplice-witnesses, Criminal Organizations, Leniency, Whistle-Blower |
| Date: | 2018–12–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:519&r=all |
| By: | Akira Okada (Kyoto University) |
| Abstract: | We consider the cultural transmission of trust and trustworthiness in a trust game with spatial matching a la Tabellini. Players are assumed to enjoy psychological benefits from good conducts. The equilibrium probability that an investor trusts a receiver is a monotonically decreasing function of social distance, and the one that the receiver behaves in a trustworthy manner is non-monotonic. Parents with imperfect empathy transmit their own values to their children through education, and the ratio of individuals with good values globally converges to a stationary point with heterogeneity if educational costs are sufficiently small. Trust and trustworthiness are infl uenced by institutions in different ways. A better "intermediate" enforcement crowds out trust and crowds in trustworthiness. |
| Keywords: | crowding effect, cultural transmission, random matching game, social distance, trust, trustworthiness |
| JEL: | C72 D02 D64 D91 |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kyo:wpaper:1001&r=all |
| By: | Elizabeth Weigensberg |
| Abstract: | At Mathematica, we combine data analysis expertise with child welfare program knowledge to produce insights that will drive improved outcomes not only for child welfare agencies, but also for the children and families they serve. |
| Keywords: | Advanced Analytics, child welfare, children, families |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:ff04d90a32f34355b7b01697c15349da&r=all |
| By: | Tanika Chakraborty; Manish Pandey |
| Abstract: | We analyze a household’s decision to have temporary international migrants when faced with shocks. We consider a household maximization problem and derive the effects of different kinds of shocks on the migration decision. Using four waves of the Life in Kyrgyzstan panel surveys, we empirically examine these effects. We contribute to the literature by accounting for household level unobserved heterogeneity, distinguishing between onward and return migration, and examining the underlying insurance motive of migration. We find that while agricultural and household specific idiosyncratic shocks have a positive effect on the likelihood to migrate, displacement shocks have a negative effect. The difference between the effects of these shocks is explained by the dynamics of migration. While agricultural and displacement shocks affect return migration, household specific idiosyncratic shocks drive onward migration. We further find that the effect of the displacement and agricultural shocks on onward and return migration are muted when households have easier access to informal borrowing. |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:win:winwop:2018-03&r=all |
| By: | Mace, Alan |
| JEL: | Q15 |
| Date: | 2017–06–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:82000&r=all |
| By: | Chrysanthou, Georgios Marios (School of Health and Related Research); Vasilakis, Chrysovalantis (Bangor Business School) |
| Abstract: | We study the determinants and longitudinal evolution of nine types of adolescent (verbal, physical, indirect) bullying at school and domestically using the Understanding Society dataset during 2009-13. Family support is the most prominent protective factor against bullying. Joint maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for dynamic discrete responses, establishes non-simultaneous determination of bullying and family support suggesting victimisation disclosure might be uncommon. The probability of escaping victimisation is inversely related to previous bullying intensity. Economic disadvantage (low family/regional income per capita) is a significant risk factor. Composite likelihood estimated threshold differences indicate that approximately halving household income can induce bullying victimisation of non-victims. |
| Keywords: | bullying; dynamic discrete response; simultaneity; unobserved heterogeneity |
| JEL: | C25 C35 J12 J13 |
| Date: | 2018–12–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:qmetal:2018_003&r=all |
| By: | Randall Akee; Elton Mykerezi; Richard M. Todd |
| Abstract: | The presence of businesses on American Indian reservations has been difficult to analyze due to limited data. Akee, Mykerezi, and Todd (AMT; 2017) geocoded confidential data from the U.S. Census Longitudinal Business Database to identify whether employer establishments were located on or off American Indian reservations and then compared federally recognized reservations and nearby county areas with respect to their per capita number of employers and jobs. We use their methods and the U.S. Census Integrated Longitudinal Business Database to develop parallel results for nonemployer establishments and for the combination of employer and nonemployer establishments. Similar to AMT’s findings, we find that reservations and nearby county areas have a similar sectoral distribution of nonemployer and nonemployer-plus-employer establishments, but reservations have significantly fewer of them in nearly all sectors, especially when the area population is below 15,000. By contrast to AMT, the average size of reservation nonemployer establishments, as measured by revenue (instead of the jobs measure AMT used for employers), is smaller than the size of nonemployers in nearby county areas, and this is true in most industries as well. The most significant exception is in the retail sector. Geographic and demographic factors, such as population density and per capita income, statistically account for only a small portion of these differences. However, when we assume that nonemployer establishments create the equivalent of one job and use combined employer-plus-nonemployer jobs to measure establishment size, the employer job numbers dominate and we parallel AMT’s finding that, due to large job counts in the Arts/Entertainment/Recreation and Public Administration sectors, reservations on average have slightly more jobs per resident than nearby county areas. |
| Keywords: | Entrepreneurship, American Indians, Rural Communities, Economic Development |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:18-50&r=all |
| By: | Josef Taalbi |
| Abstract: | This study examines the network of supply and use of significant innovations across industries in Sweden, 1970-2013. It is found that 30% of innovation patterns can be predicted by network stimulus from backward and forward linkages. The network is hierarchical, characterized by hubs that connect diverse industries in closely knitted communities. To explain the network structure, a preferential weight assignment process is proposed as an adaptation of the classical preferential attachment process to weighted directed networks. The network structure is strongly predicted by this process where historical technological linkages and proximities matter, while human capital flows and economic input-output flows have conflicting effects on link formation. The results are consistent with the idea that innovations emerge in closely connected communities, but suggest that the transformation of technological systems are shaped by technological requirements, imbalances and opportunities that are not straightforwardly related to other proximities. |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1811.06772&r=all |
| By: | Ege Aksu (The Graduate Center, CUNY, Economics); Refik Erzan (Department of Economics, Bogazici University); Murat Guray Kirdar (Department of Economics, Bogazici University) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effects of the arrival of 2.5 million Syrian migrants in Turkey by the end of 2015 on the labor market outcomes of natives, using a difference-in-differences IV methodology. We show that relaxing the common-trend assumption of this methodology -unlike recent papers in the same setting- makes a substantial difference in several key outcomes. Despite the massive size of the migrant influx, no adverse effects on the average wages of men or women or on total employment of men are observed. For women, however, total employment falls -which results mainly from the elimination of part-time jobs. While the migrant influx has adverse effects on competing native workers in the informal sector, it has favorable effects on complementary workers in the formal sector. We estimate about one-to-one replacement in employment for native men in the informal sector, whereas both wage employment and wages of men in the formal sector increase. Our findings, including those on the heterogeneity of effects by age and education, are consistent with the implications of the canonical migration model. In addition, increases in prices in the product market and in capital flow to the treatment regions contribute to the rise in labor demand in the formal sector. |
| Keywords: | Labor Force and Employment; Wages; Immigrant Workers; Formal and Informal Sectors; Syrian Refugees; Turkey; Difference-in-differences; Instrumental Variables. |
| JEL: | J21 J31 J61 C26 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:koc:wpaper:1815&r=all |
| By: | Xavier Giroud; Holger M. Mueller |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that buildups in firm leverage predict subsequent declines in aggregate regional employment. Using confidential establishment-level data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we exploit regional heterogeneity in leverage buildups by large U.S. publicly listed firms, which are widely spread across U.S. regions. For a given region, our results show that increases in firms’ borrowing are associated with “boom-bust” cycles: employment grows in the short run but declines in the medium run. Across regions, our results imply that regions with larger buildups in firm leverage exhibit stronger short-run growth, but also stronger medium-run declines, in aggregate regional employment. We obtain similar results if we condition on national recessions–regions with larger buildups in firm leverage prior to a recession experience larger employment losses during the recession. When comparing regional firm and household leverage growth, we find qualitatively similar patterns for both. Finally, we find that regions whose firm leverage growth comoves more strongly also exhibit stronger comovement in their regional business cycles. |
| JEL: | E24 E32 G32 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25325&r=all |