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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Xiaodong Gong; Jiti Gao; Xuan Liang; Xin Meng |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we study intra-city agglomeration externality and inter-city spillover effects on productivity of 185 Chinese cities at and above the prefectural level for the years between 1995 and 2009. In particular, we investigate how a shock may be amplified or weakened by these externality effects and how productivity in a city varies with and affects that of other cities in the economy. We estimate the impacts of population size on productivity in 185 Chinese cities using spatial fixed-effect panel data models. Both the endogenous and exogenous spatial dependence are allowed for. The direct and indirect effects of the factors are calculated and compared for various city groups. We find that a significant positive effect of urban population on the real wage levels, which confirms the existence of agglomeration economy within regions. We also find significant differences in both the direct and indirect effect of factors such as FDI between more and less population dense areas. This seems to suggest that agglomeration economy may also exist among regions. Disparity between regions in economic growth and productivity could be explained by the statistically significant regional variations in the direct and indirect effects. |
| JEL: | C23 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:msh:ebswps:2018-20&r=ure |
| By: | Frattini, Tommaso; Meschi, Elena |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new evidence on how the presence of immigrant peers in the classroom affects native student achievement. The analysis is based on longitudinal administrative data on two cohorts of vocational training students in Italy's largest region. Vocational training institutions provide the ideal setting for studying these effects because they attract not only disproportionately high shares of immigrants but also the lowest ability native students. We adopt a value added model, and exploit within-school variation both within and across cohorts for identification. Our results show small negative average effects on maths test scores that are larger for low ability native students, strongly non-linear and only observable in classes with a high (top 20%) immigrant concentration. These outcomes are driven by classes with a high average linguistic distance between immigrants and natives, with no apparent additional role played by ethnic diversity. |
| Keywords: | education; ethnic diversity; Immigration; linguistic distance; peer effects |
| JEL: | I20 J15 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13305&r=ure |
| By: | McCann, Fergal (Central Bank of Ireland); McGeever, Niall (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | Non-performing loan (NPL) balances in the Irish retail banking system declined from e85bn in 2013 to around e25bn in 2017. In this Note, we document how this decline came about using regulatory return data and loan-level data for all property-related lending segments. Firstly, we highlight that NPL resolution is a gradual process: the majority of NPL balances in one year remain as NPLs a year later. Secondly, we show that loan “cure” (the return of previously-defaulted balances to Performing Loan status) is the key driver of NPL reduction in the residential mortgage segment. This is particularly true for principal dwelling home mortgages, where loan restructuring has played a pivotal role. In contrast, loan exit —through liquidations, write-offs, and sales—accounts for a large majority of the NPL reduction in the commercial real estate segment, where concerns about borrowers’ access to housing are less central to the policy discussion. Buy-to-Let (BTL) mortgages, on the other hand, share some of the characteristics of each of the aforementioned asset classes: Exit plays a relatively more important role for BTLs than for PDH mortgages, while Cure plays a greater for BTLs than it does for CRE loans. |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:fsnote:06/18&r=ure |
| By: | Tigran Poghosyan |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes regional labor mobility in Finland using two complementary empirical approaches: a VAR proposed by Blanchard and Katz (1992) and a gravity model. The results point to a relatively limited regional labor mobility in Finland compared to the U.S. and to EU peers. The limited regional labor mobility is associated with persistent unemployment differentials across regions. Some impediments to regional labor mobility are exogenous, such as large geographical distances across regions and relatively sparse population density, and explain about 23 percent of the variation in labor mobility. Others can be influenced by policy, such as further increase in wage flexibiltiy and reduction of housing costs. These impediments explain about 60 percent of the variation in labor mobility. Greater regional labor mobility could help reduce regional unemployment differentials, improve job matching efficiency, and remove pressures from regional fiscal redistribution. |
| Date: | 2018–11–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:18/252&r=ure |
| By: | Diether Beuermann; C. Kirabo Jackson; Laia Navarro-Sola; Francisco Pardo |
| Abstract: | Is a school’s impact on high-stakes test scores a good measure of its overall impact on students? Do parents value school impacts on high-stakes tests, longer-run outcomes, or both? To answer the first question, we apply quasi-experimental methods to data from Trinidad and Tobago and estimate the causal impacts of individual schools on several outcomes. Schools' impacts on high-stakes tests are weakly related to impacts on low-stakes tests, dropout, crime, teen motherhood, and formal labor market participation. To answer the second question, we link estimated school impacts to parents’ ranked lists of schools and employ discrete choice models to estimate parental preferences. Parents value schools that causally improve high-stakes test scores conditional on average outcomes, proximity, and peer quality. Consistent with parents valuing the multidimensional output of schools, parents of high-achieving girls prefer schools that increase formal labor market participation, and parents of high-achieving boys prefer schools that reduce crime. |
| JEL: | I2 J01 J38 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25342&r=ure |
| By: | Jason B. Cook |
| Abstract: | This paper studies a school district that was federally mandated to adopt a race-blind lottery system to fill seats in its oversubscribed magnet schools. The district had previously integrated its schools by conducting separate admissions lotteries by race to offset its predominantly black applicant pools. The change dramatically segregated subsequent magnet school cohorts. More segregated schools enroll students with lower baseline achievement and employ lower valueadded teachers. Segregation is further exacerbated by “white flight” as white students transfer out of the district after attending more segregated schools. Ultimately, mandated segregation decreases student test scores and college attendance. |
| Keywords: | keyword1, keyword2, keyword3 |
| JEL: | I24 I28 J15 J48 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7335&r=ure |
| By: | Du, Jun (Aston University); Zhang, Junfu (Clark University) |
| Abstract: | Throughout the imperial era, defensive walls surrounded Chinese cities. Although most city walls have vanished, the cities have survived. We analyze a sample of nearly 300 prefectural-level cities in China, among which about half historically had city walls. We document that cities that had walls in late imperial China have higher population and employment density today, despite the fact that their walls have long gone. Using data from various sources, we test several possible explanations of this fact, including (1) walled cities have a well-defined historical core that helps hold economic activity close to the city center today; (2) walled cities today tend to have different industry compositions that are less conducive to decentralization; (3) walled cities are situated in regions where the local geographies make it less desirable to build out; (4) walled cities have more compact shapes that facilitate high density development; and (5) walled cities are located in regions where rural land is more valuable today and discourages urban sprawl. We find that historically walled cities still have higher density after taking into account all of these factors, which we interpret as evidence of economic persistence. |
| Keywords: | urban density, city wall, persistence, China |
| JEL: | R11 R12 N95 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11951&r=ure |
| By: | Roberto Luís de Melo Monte-Mór (Cedeplar-UFMG); Renan Pereira Almeida (Cedeplar-UFMG); Marcelo de Brito Brandão (Cedeplar-UFMG) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the degree to which a series of large-scale urban projects along the North Axis of the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte (MRBH), Brazil, may have triggered a process of gentrification since 2004. The North Axis is the poorest zone of the MRBH and it has been the subject of multiple development and investments plans, under the concept of “Aerotropolis” – the globalized metropolis that has an international airport as the anchor for its development. Although initially proposed as a Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs), state government had the central role in these projects and funded almost all. These investments include a series of large-scale urban projects, including the Green Line (Linha Verde) corridor, which connects the central city to the International Airport Tancredo Neves, and the relocation of the administrative offices of the state government (Cidade Administrativa de Minas Gerais, CAMG). All these plans and developments were sustained by major investments in road and service infrastructure, including a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system. Area plans and investments have likely increased land values and rents in the area, sparking concern about the gentrification of low-income households in and around the area. Responding to an academic and policy need to assess how and to what degree large-scale urban projects trigger processes of gentrification, the paper exposes a quasi-experimental, mixed-methods research to identify whether and why land values have increased, and if a relationship can be established between those increases and the displacement of low-income households who had made the area their home. This research used a number of datasets to grasp the empirical evidences as well as case studies (fieldwork to generate a robust explanation of the forces and relationships behind and dynamics of the area’s potential gentrification). Empirical results indicate that the large-scale urban projects such as the CAMG may have increased the land values in the study area at nearly 17%. On the other hand, the “MOVE” BRT system may have caused a 14% price drop in the study area. Regarding the potential gentrification process, empirical results rejected this hypothesis, mainly because the study area is a consolidated area and the high-income groups have not being attracted to the area. The study generated the conditions to design and implement another study, focused more specifically on land value increments indeed generated by area plans and investments, covering a wider area and the range of options local governments could consider recovering those increments. Moreover, more research is necessary to clarify the effects of BRT systems on Latin American cities, a key concern on urban policy nowadays. |
| Keywords: | infrastructure, land markets, spatial segregation, economic development. |
| JEL: | R12 R2 E R3 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td594&r=ure |
| By: | Huang, Bin; He, Xiaoyan; Xu, Lei; Zhu, Yu |
| Abstract: | We explore three recent comprehensive reforms which aim to equalize access to elite elementary schools in Beijing, to identify the causal effect of access to quality education on house prices. Using property transaction records from Beijing in 2013 and 2016, we construct a balanced panel of residential complexes, each of which linked to its designated primary school. Whereas the multi-school dicing reform involves randomly assigning previously ineligible pupils to key elementary schools through lotteries, the reform of school federation led by elite schools consolidates ordinary primary schools through alliance with elite schools. Moreover, an ordinary primary school can be promoted to key elementary school without involving neighbouring schools in surrounding residential complexes through a “pure” re-designation effect. We allow for systemic differences between the treated and non-treated residential complexes using the Matching Difference-in-Differences (MDID) approach. Our estimates indicate that the causal effect on house prices of being eligible to enrol in a municipal-level key primary school is about 5-7%, while the premium for being eligible for a less prestigious district-level key primary school is only about 1-3%. |
| Keywords: | quality school designation,house price premium,Matching DID,China |
| JEL: | R21 I28 H44 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:283&r=ure |
| By: | João Firmino (Universidade Nova de Lisboa) |
| Abstract: | Using student-level longitudinal data of 6th graders I estimate class composition effects impacting on individual academic achievement. The richness of the dataset allows to tackle endogeneity stemming from between and within-school non-random sorting of students and of teachers and other confounding factors through the inclusion of many control covariates that characterize the students’ cumulative process of learning and several fixed effects, namely school, teacher and cohort fixed effects. I find that increasing the percentage of high achievers, in a 6th grade class, has a negative effect on student performance. Larger shares of low-income classmates improve performance for non-low-income students. The shares of male and foreign students yield non or faintly significant results. Using the setup of a particular school, representative of the sample, I also compute improving classrooms’ allocation of students by rearranging the existing students through the existing classes using the estimates of the education production function and different social welfare functions. This way I assess how the actual distribution of students across classes of a given school-grade deviate from what can be considered an improving distribution of classmates. Pareto improving allocations were not found, nevertheless utilitarian welfare functions yield marginally improving allocations. |
| Keywords: | Class Composition, Peer Effects, Student Achievement, Classroom, Welfare |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2018-14&r=ure |
| By: | Beltratti, Andrea; Benetton, Matteo; Gavazza, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | We study the effect of mortgage prepayment penalties on borrowers’ prepayments and delinquencies by exploiting a 2007 reform in Italy that reduced penalties on outstanding mortgages and banned penalties on newly-issued mortgages. Using a unique dataset of mortgages issued by a large Italian lender, we provide evidence that: 1) before the reform, mortgages issued to riskier borrowers included larger penalties; 2) higher prepayment penalties decreased borrowers’ prepayments; and 3) higher prepayment penalties did not affect borrowers’ delinquencies. Moreover, we find suggestive evidence that prepayment penalties affected mortgage pricing, as well as prepayments and delinquencies through borrowers’ mortgage selection at origination, most notably for riskier borrowers. |
| Keywords: | mortgages; prepayment penalties; refinancing; default |
| JEL: | F3 G3 |
| Date: | 2017–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:81841&r=ure |
| By: | Kinghan, Christina (Central Bank of Ireland); Lyons, Paul (Central Bank of Ireland); Mazza, Elena (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | This note provides an overview of residential mortgage lending in Ireland in 2017. It uses data reported to the Central Bank of Ireland as part of the macroprudential mortgage measures. In total, 35,472 loans are covered with a value of e7.4 billion. For first-time buyers (FTBs), the average loan-to-value (LTV) and loan-to-income (LTI) were 79.8 per cent and 3.0 times gross income respectively. Regarding the LTI limit, 18 per cent of the aggregate value of lending to both FTBs and second and subsequent buyers (SSBs) exceeded the limit of 3.5 in 2017. This corresponds to 25 per cent of the value of FTB lending and 10 per cent of the value of SSB lending. Regarding LTV, 17 per cent of the aggregate value of SSB lending in 2017 exceeded the 80 per cent LTV limit. On average, borrowers with an LTI allowance had larger loan sizes and loan terms, were more likely to be based in Dublin and be single compared to those borrowers without an LTI allowance. SSBs with an LTV allowance had larger loan sizes and incomes but lower property values and were younger than those without an LTV allowance.We observe that allowances were allocated to borrowers in all four quarters of 2017. |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:fsnote:01/18&r=ure |
| By: | Koeniger, Winfried (University of St. Gallen); Ramelet, Marc-Antoine (University of St. Gallen) |
| Abstract: | We present empirical evidence on the heterogeneity in monetary policy transmission across countries with different home ownership rates. We use household-level data together with shocks to the policy rate identified from high-frequency data. We find that housing tenure reacts more strongly to unexpected changes in the policy rate in Germany and Switzerland - the OECD countries with the lowest home ownership rates - compared with existing evidence for the U.S. An unexpected decrease in the policy rate by 25 basis points increases the home ownership rate by 0.8 percentage points in Germany and by 0.6 percentage points in Switzerland. The response of non-housing consumption in Switzerland is less heterogeneous across renters and mortgagors, and has a different pattern across age groups than in the U.S. We discuss economic explanations for these findings and implications for monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy transmission, home ownership, housing tenure, consumption |
| JEL: | E21 E52 R21 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11950&r=ure |
| By: | Koeniger, Winfried; Ramelet, Marc-Antoine |
| Abstract: | We present empirical evidence on the heterogeneity in monetary policy transmission across countries with different home ownership rates. We use household-level data together with shocks to the policy rate identified from high-frequency data. We find that housing tenure reacts more strongly to unexpected changes in the policy rate in Germany and Switzerland - the OECD countries with the lowest home ownership rates - compared with existing evidence for the U.S. An unexpected decrease in the policy rate by 25 basis points increases the home ownership rate by 0.8 percentage points in Germany and by 0.6 percentage points in Switzerland. The response of non-housing consumption in Switzerland is less heterogeneous across renters and mortgagors, and has a different pattern across age groups than in the U.S. We discuss economic explanations for these findings and implications for monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy transmission,Home ownership,Housing tenure,Consumption |
| JEL: | E21 E52 R21 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cfswop:615&r=ure |
| By: | Gaffney, Edward (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | I measure shares of mortgage finance in different price segments of the property market by comparing loan-level records of mortgage originations by Irish banks to the national register of property transactions between February 2015 and June 2018. Mortgage finance is more frequent at higher prices for all but the most expensive properties, rising from 5 per cent of purchases in the first price decile to 72 per cent in the ninth decile. The relationship between price and finance is similar in urban and rural regions. Price grew more quickly between 2015 and 2018 at lower price levels, where buyers rely less on mortgage finance. |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:fsnote:11/18&r=ure |
| By: | O'Malley, Terry (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | Approximately 29,000 residential mortgages in Ireland have accumulated at least two years worth of missed payments as of March 2018. In this paper, I analyse a sample of these mortgages in long-term arrears. By end-2017, the number of loans entering long-term mortgage arrears slowed to its lowest rate since the crisis began. The number of loans leaving long-term arrears has also generally slowed. Roughly half of the loans leaving long-term arrears in 2017 are due to voluntary and involuntary lossof- ownership, compared with less than a third three years ago. The remaining longterm arrears mortgages have an average arrears balance of e66,000 and the estimated average loan-to-value ratio is close to 90%. The balances in arrears are on average around one fth of the estimated value of the property. |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:fsnote:07/18&r=ure |
| By: | Winfried Koeniger; Marc-Antoine Ramelet |
| Abstract: | We present empirical evidence on the heterogeneity in monetary policy transmission across countries with different home ownership rates. We use household-level data together with shocks to the policy rate identified from high-frequency data. We find that housing tenure reacts more strongly to unexpected changes in the policy rate in Germany and Switzerland –the OECD countries with the lowest home ownership rates– compared with existing evidence for the U.S. An unexpected decrease in the policy rate by 25 basis points increases the home ownership rate by 0.8 percentage points in Germany and by 0.6 percentage points in Switzerland. The response of non-housing consumption in Switzerland is less heterogeneous across renters and mortgagors, and has a different pattern across age groups than in the U.S. We discuss economic explanations for these findings and implications for monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy transmission, home ownership, housing tenure, consumption |
| JEL: | F21 E52 R21 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7361&r=ure |
| By: | Bob Bifulco (Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244); David Schwegman (enter for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the effects of accountability-driven school closure in New York City on students who attended middle schools that were closed at the time of closure and students who would have likely attended a closed middle school had it remained open. We find that students who would have entered the closed school, had it not closed, attended schools that perform better on standardized exams and have higher value-added measures than did the closed schools. While we find that closure did not have any measurable effect on the average student in this group, we do find that high-performing students in this group attended higher-performing schools and experienced economically-meaningful and statistically-significant improvements in their sixth, seventh, and eighth-grade math test scores. We find that these benefits persisted for several cohorts after closure. We also find that closure adversely affected students, low-performing students in particular, who were attending schools that closed. For policymakers, our results highlight a key tradeoff of closing a low-performing school: future cohorts of relatively high-performing students may benefit from closure while low-performing students in schools designated for closure are adversely affected. |
| Keywords: | School Closure, School Accountability, Urban School Reform |
| JEL: | I20 I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:max:cprwps:212&r=ure |
| By: | Kinghan, Christina (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | This note provides an overview of residential mortgage lending in Ireland in H1 2018. In total, 17,415 loans are covered with a value of e3.75 billion. The majority (97 per cent) of lending in-scope of the mortgage measures was for primary dwelling (PDH) loans. For firsttime buyers (FTBs), the average loan-to-value (LTV) and loan-to-income (LTI) were 79.6 per cent and 3.1 times gross income, respectively. Regarding the LTV limit, 16 per cent of the total value of second and subsequent buyers (SSB) lending in H1 2018 exceeded the 80 per cent LTV limit. Regarding the LTI limit, 23 per cent of the aggregate value of FTB lending exceeded the LTI limit, with 9 per cent of the value of SSB lending originated with an LTI above 3.5. On average, borrowers with an LTI allowance had larger loan sizes and loan terms, were more likely to be based in Dublin and be a single applicant compared to those borrowers without an LTI allowance. SSBs with an LTV allowance had larger loan sizes and incomes and were younger than those without an LTV allowance. These trends were similar to those observed in H1 2017. |
| Date: | 2018–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:fsnote:08/18&r=ure |
| By: | Bosker, Maarten; Park, Jane; Roberts, Mark |
| Abstract: | A variety of approaches to delineate metropolitan areas have been developed. Systematic comparisons of these approaches in terms of the urban landscape that they generate are however few. This paper aims to fill this gap. The paper focuses on Indonesia and makes use of the availability of data on commuting flows, remotely-sensed nighttime lights, and spatially fine-grained population, to construct metropolitan areas using the different approaches that have been developed in the literature. The analysis finds that the maps and characteristics of Indonesia's urban landscape vary substantially, depending on the approach used. Moreover, combining information on the metro areas generated by the different approaches with detailed micro-data from Indonesia's national labor force survey, the paper shows that the estimated size of the agglomeration wage premium depends nontrivially on the approach used to define metropolitan areas. |
| Keywords: | agglomeration economies; Indonesia; metro areas; urban definitions |
| JEL: | C21 O18 O47 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13359&r=ure |
| By: | James J. Feigenbaum; Christopher Muller; Elizabeth Wrigley-Field |
| Abstract: | In the first half of the twentieth century, the rate of death from infectious disease in the United States fell precipitously. Although this decline is well-known and well-documented, there is surprisingly little evidence about whether it took place uniformly across the regions of the U.S. We use data on infectious disease deaths from all reporting U.S. cities to describe regional patterns in the decline of urban infectious mortality from 1900 to 1948. We report three main results: First, urban infectious mortality was higher in the South in every year from 1900 to 1948. Second, infectious mortality declined later in southern cities than in cities in the other regions. Third, comparatively high infectious mortality in southern cities was driven primarily by extremely high infectious mortality among African Americans. From 1906 to 1920, African Americans in cities experienced a rate of death from infectious disease greater than what urban whites experienced during the 1918 flu pandemic. |
| JEL: | I14 J1 N3 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25345&r=ure |
| By: | Adrian Alter; Jane Dokko; Dulani Seneviratne |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between house price synchronicity and global financial conditions across 40 countries and about 70 cities over the past three decades. The role played by cross-border banking flows in residential property markets is examined as well. Looser global financial conditions are associated with greater house price synchronicity, even after controlling for bilateral financial integration. Moreover, we find that synchronicity across major cities may differ from that of their respective countries’, perhaps due to the influence of global investors on local house price dynamics. Policy choices such as macroprudential tools and exchange rate flexibility appear to be relevant for mitigating the sensitivity of domestic housing markets to the rest of the world. |
| Date: | 2018–11–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:18/250&r=ure |
| By: | Dustmann, Christian; Fitzenberger, Bernd; Zimmermann, Markus |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we show that, in terms of real disposable income, changes in housing expenditures dramatically exacerbate the trend of income inequality that has risen sharply in Germany since the mid-1990s. More specifically, whereas the 50/10 ratio of net household income increases by 22 percentage points (pp) between 1993 and 2013, it increases by 62 pp for income net of housing expenditures. At the same time, the income share of housing expenditures rises disproportionally for the bottom income quintile and falls for the top quintile. Factors contributing to these trends include a decline in the relative costs of homeownership versus renting, changes in household structure, and residential mobility toward larger cities. Younger cohorts spend more on housing and save less than older cohorts did at the same age, with possibly negative consequences for wealth accumulation, particularly for those at the bottom of the income distribution. |
| Keywords: | income inequality,housing expenditures |
| JEL: | D31 R21 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:zewdip:18048&r=ure |
| By: | Dustmann, Christian (University College London); Fitzenberger, Bernd (Humboldt University Berlin); Zimmermann, Markus (Humboldt University Berlin) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we show that, in terms of real disposable income, changes in housing expenditures dramatically exacerbate the trend of income inequality that has risen sharply in Germany since the mid-1990s. More specifically, whereas the 50/10 ratio of net household income increases by 22 percentage points (pp) between 1993 and 2013, it increases by 62 pp for income net of housing expenditures. At the same time, the income share of housing expenditures rises disproportionally for the bottom income quintile and falls for the top quintile. Factors contributing to these trends include a decline in the relative costs of homeownership versus renting, changes in household structure, and residential mobility toward larger cities. Younger cohorts spend more on housing and save less than older cohorts did at the same age, with possibly negative consequences for wealth accumulation, particularly for those at the bottom of the income distribution. |
| Keywords: | income inequality, housing expenditures |
| JEL: | D31 R21 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11953&r=ure |
| By: | Frederic Lloveras Minguell (MCRIT) |
| Abstract: | This paper describes the role of the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona (AMB) in the governance of public transport in Spain’s second-largest agglomeration. It sets out how the AMB is able to provide integrated transport management, planning, financing and decision-making across different administrations and bodies of the Barcelona region, based on a mandate that comprises territorial planning, environment and sustainability, housing, economic development and social cohesion. |
| Date: | 2018–10–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaab:2018/23-en&r=ure |
| By: | Fogli, Alessandra; Veldkamp, Laura |
| Abstract: | Does the pattern of social connections between individuals matter for macroeconomic outcomes? If so, where do these differences come from and how large are their effects? Using network analysis tools, we explore how different social network structures affect technology diffusion and thereby a country's rate of growth. The correlation between high-diffusion networks and income is strongly positive. But when we use a model to isolate the effect of a change in social networks, the effect can be positive, negative, or zero. The reason is that networks diffuse ideas and disease. Low-diffusion networks have evolved in countries where disease is prevalent because limited connectivity protects residents from epidemics. But a low-diffusion network in a low-disease environment needlessly compromises the diffusion of good ideas. In general, social networks have evolved to fit their economic and epidemiological environment. Trying to change networks in one country to mimic those in a higher-income country may well be counterproductive. |
| Keywords: | Development; disease; economic networks; growth; pathogens; Social Networks; technology diffusion |
| JEL: | E02 I1 O1 O33 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13312&r=ure |
| By: | Taylor Webley |
| Abstract: | Existing home sales’ share of Canada’s economic pie has been rising in recent years, and variation around this trend has resulted in outsized contributions to changes in real gross domestic product (GDP). In this context, we use a cointegration framework to estimate the level of resale activity across the Canadian provinces that is supported by fundamentals—namely, full-time employment, housing affordability and migration flows—to help look through the volatility. The results suggest that, over longer horizons, resales activity and these fundamentals share a stable relationship, although deviations are sometimes persistent. We also find a robust and positive relationship between house price growth and deviations of existing home sales from fundamentals. While predicting quarterly changes in resales remains very difficult, provincial models improve upon national and naïve benchmarks and provide a useful framework for identifying risks to GDP growth that stem directly from the resale market. |
| Keywords: | Econometric and statistical methods, Economic models, Housing |
| JEL: | C C2 C22 C23 E E2 E27 R R2 R21 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocadp:18-16&r=ure |
| By: | Donna, Javier D. |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a structural model of urban travel to estimate long-run price elasticities. A dynamic discrete choice demand model with switching costs is estimated, using a panel dataset with public market-level data on automobile and public transit use for Chicago. The estimated model shows that long-run own- (automobile) and cross- (transit) price elasticities are more elastic than short-run elasticities, and that elasticity estimates from static and myopic models are downward biased. The estimated model is used to evaluate the response to a gasoline tax. Static and myopic models mismeasure long-run substitution patterns, and could lead to incorrect policy decisions. |
| Keywords: | Long-run price elasticities, Dynamic demand travel, Hysteresis |
| JEL: | L71 L91 L98 |
| Date: | 2018–11–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:90059&r=ure |
| By: | ITF |
| Abstract: | This report identifies the characteristics of the metropolitan transport authorities (MTAs) in the Barcelona, London and Paris areas that make them effective, and makes recommendations for the establishment of a new MTA in Korea’s capital region. It reviews governance arrangements and responsibilities for strategic planning, investment, data management, public transport services and the management of multi-modal transfer centres. Successfully managing mobility services in metropolitan areas is central to improving accessibility and to the well-being of their populations. The challenges faced include coordinating multiple government and non-government stakeholders, finding an institutional structure that meets the needs of both the urban-core and the larger commuting area, and striking a good balance between the powers of central government and local authorities. These challenges are particularly present in countries in the process of decentralisation. Successful MTAs give local authorities a prominent role in decision-making while maintaining a coherent larger scale vision in planning, policy-making and investment. Strong financial and technical capacity have proved critical. |
| Date: | 2018–10–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:61-en&r=ure |
| By: | Kamionka, Thierry (CREST-INSEE); Lacroix, Guy (Université Laval) |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the links between homeownership, employment and earnings for which no consensus exists in the literature. Our analysis is cast within a dynamic setting and the endogeneity of each outcome is assessed through the estimation of a flexible panel multivariate model with random effects. The data we use are drawn from the French sample of the EU Survey on Income and Living Conditions for the years 2004–2013. The error terms are both correlated across equations and autocorrelated. Individual random effects are also correlated across equations. The model is estimated using a simulated maximum likelihood estimator and particular care is given to the initial conditions problem. Our results show that while homeowners have longer employment and unemployment spells, they must contend with lower earnings than tenants upon reemployment. They also stress the importance of unobserved heterogeneity in explaining the transitions on the labour and housing markets, and the relationship between earnings and the latter two. Failure to properly account for this is likely to yield biased parameter estimates. |
| Keywords: | homeownership, unemployment, earnings, simulation based estimation, panel data |
| JEL: | J21 J64 J31 C33 C35 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11952&r=ure |
| By: | Gutierrez, Federico H. |
| Abstract: | This paper studies to what extent gender differences in commuting patterns explain the observed disparities between husband and wife in relation to earnings and wages. It is argued that the cost of commuting is higher for women because they bear a disproportionate share of housework and child-rearing responsibilities. Therefore, female workers tend to work relatively close to home. A `job location wage gap' emerges because jobs located away from the central business district offer lower wages. Using pooled data from the American Community Survey, the results indicate that 10% of the gender pay gap among childless workers and more than 23% of the wage decline attributed to being a mother ("child pay penalty") are explained by sex differences in commuting patterns. A conditional Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition indicates that short commutes are strongly associated with working in low-paying occupations and industries. |
| Keywords: | Gender pay gap,job location,wages,commute time,wage gradient |
| JEL: | J31 R41 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:282&r=ure |
| By: | Sato, Yasuhiro; Zenou, Yves |
| Abstract: | We develop a model in which ethnic minorities can either assimilate to the majority's norm or reject it by trading off higher productivity and wages with a greater social distance to their culture of origin. We show that "oppositional" minorities reside in more segregated areas, have worse outcomes (in terms of income) but are not necessary worse off in terms of welfare than assimilated minorities who live in less segregated areas. We find that a policy that reduces transportation cost decreases rather than increases assimilation in cities. We also find that when there are more productivity spillovers between the two groups, ethnic minorities are more likely not to assimilate and to reject the majority's norm. Finally, we show that ethnic minorities tend to assimilate more in bigger and more expensive cities. |
| Keywords: | agglomeration; cities; Ethnic identity; welfare |
| JEL: | J15 R14 Z13 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13364&r=ure |
| By: | Hanming Fang; Zhe Li; Nianhang Xu; Hongjun Yan |
| Abstract: | We document that following a turnover of the Party Secretary or mayor of a city in China, firms (especially private firms) headquartered in that city significantly increase their “perk spending.” Both the instrumental-variable-based results and heterogeneity analysis are consistent with the interpretation that the perk spending is used to build relations with local governments. Moreover, local political turnover in a city tends to be followed by changes of Chairmen or CEOs of state-owned firms that are controlled by the local government. However, the Chairmen or CEOs who have connections with local government officials are less likely to be replaced. |
| JEL: | G30 G38 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25300&r=ure |
| By: | Thierry Kamionka; Guy Lacroix |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the links between homeownership, employment and earnings for which no consensus exists in the literature. Our analysis is cast within a dynamic setting and the endogeneity of each outcome is assessed through the estimation of a flexible panel multivariate model with random effects. The data we use are drawn from the French sample of the EU Survey on Income and Living Conditions for the years 2004Ð2013. The error terms are both correlated across equations and autocorrelated. Individual random effects are also correlated across equations. The model is estimated using a simulated maximum likelihood estimator and particular care is given to the initial conditions problem. Our results show that while homeowners have longer employment and unemployment spells, they must contend with lower earnings than tenants upon reemployment. They also stress the importance of unobserved heterogeneity in explaining the transitions on the labour and housing markets, and the relationship between earnings and the latter two. Failure to properly account for this is likely to yield biased parameter estimates. |
| Keywords: | Homeownership,Unemployment,Earnings,Heterogeneity,Simulation based estimation,panel data |
| JEL: | J64 J21 J31 C33 C35 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:crrecr:1819&r=ure |
| By: | Ofer Malamud; Santiago Cueto; Julian Cristia; Diether W. Beuermann |
| Abstract: | This paper provides experimental evidence for the impact of home internet access on a broad range of child outcomes in Peru. We compare children who were randomly chosen to receive laptops with high-speed internet access to (i) those who did not receive laptops and (ii) those who only received laptops without internet. We find that providing free internet access led to improved computer and internet proficiency relative to those without laptops and improved internet proficiency compared to those with laptops only. However, there were no significant effects of internet access on math and reading achievement, cognitive skills, self-esteem, teacher perceptions, or school grades when compared to either group. We explore reasons for the absence of impacts on these key outcomes with survey questions, time-diaries, and computer logs. |
| JEL: | C93 I21 I25 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25312&r=ure |
| By: | Lyndsey Rolheiser; Dorinth van Dijk; Alex van de Minne |
| Abstract: | A home is typically thought of as a bundle of land and structure. Land is supplied inelastically and is non-reproducible. Land values are therefore affected by a number of demand factors. Conceptually, structures are easily produced, and thus are supplied elastically. Under elastic supply, it is reasonable to assume that replacement cost should be equivalent to the value of the structure for new properties. Here, we examine how particular structure characteristics may introduce heterogeneity into these demand and supply relationships. In other words, how do structure vintages influence price dynamics. Older vintages are not easily reproducible leading to the value of an older vintage to potentially diverge from its replacement cost. To test our hypotheses, we employ a nonlinear model in a Bayesian structural timeseries approach that explicitly disentangles structure and land values to identify vintage effects separately from physical deterioration and land values. We find large differences in price dynamics between four distinct vintages of Amsterdam old city center apartments. Between 1999 - 2016, new construction had an average return of 1.7%, with a standard deviation of 2.4%. On the other hand, properties build in the 19th century had an average return of 3.6% with a standard deviation of 6.1%, during the same period. |
| Keywords: | land and structure prices; depreciation; new construction; structural time series |
| JEL: | R21 R31 C11 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dnb:dnbwpp:617&r=ure |
| By: | Ashley Miller (Department of Economics and Accounting, College of the Holy Cross) |
| Abstract: | On November 10, 2005, the Kalamazoo Public School District announced that a group of anonymous donors had funded a new college scholarship program for district graduates named the Kalamazoo Promise. The primary qualification for scholarship eligibility is continuous residency and enrollment in the Kalamazoo Public School District, and the scholarship is set up in perpetuity. This study assesses the extent to which the Kalamazoo Promise is serving as an economic development tool. Results indicate that the Kalamazoo Promise dramatically increased enrollment in the Kalamazoo Public School District, but there is no evidence that the Kalamazoo Promise increased home values in the district. |
| Keywords: | promise scholarships, financial aid, economic development tools, place-based policies |
| JEL: | I25 I28 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hcx:wpaper:1812&r=ure |
| By: | Brunello, Giorgio; Crema, Angela; Rocco, Lorenzo |
| Abstract: | Using Italian data on standardized test scores, we show that the performance decline associated with question position is heterogeneous across students. This fact implies that the rank of individuals and classes depends on the length of the test. Longer tests may also exhibit larger gaps between the variance of test scores and the variance of underlying ability. The performance decline is correlated with both cognitive and non-cognitive abilities and there is also evidence that those with better parental background experience a smaller decline than those with poorer background. Therefore, the gap between the two groups widens in longer tests. |
| Keywords: | low stake tests,position of questions,cognitive and non-cognitive skills,Italy |
| JEL: | I21 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:286&r=ure |
| By: | Tue Gorgens; Chris Ryan; Guochang Zhao |
| Abstract: | The use of private schools in Australia has increased greatly. This paper shows that most of the growth has been concentrated in using low-fee schools, while the growth in using high-fee schools has been modest. Furthermore, the increase has occurred for both two-parent and single-parent households and for households at all income levels. However, increasing income and changes household composition can account only for a small part of the trend. |
| JEL: | I2 N3 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2018-664&r=ure |
| By: | Giulia Galera (EURICSE); Leila Giannetto (EURICSE); Andrea Membretti; Antonella Noya (OECD) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether immigration can operate as a counter-process of depopulation and economic recession. Based on the comparative analysis of four case studies in Belluno (Italy), Klagenfurt-Villach (Austria), Dalarna (Sweden), and Haßberge (Germany), it analyses the key socio-economic factors explaining the successful integration of migrants, refugees, status holders and asylum seekers and examines under which conditions the arrival of newcomers can turn into a local development opportunity for these territories. The case studies feature four remote territories with the following common characteristics: they have undergone significant socio-economic transformations over the past decade, they face a population decline with an alarming outmigration of youth combined with an increasing ageing population, and central governments have channelled recent immigration and asylum seekers to peripheral areas to counterbalance negative demographic trends. Results show that integration paths undertaken by recipients differ significantly across the four territories. However, all case studies suggest that stable jobs and accommodations render remote and mountain localities attractive for refugees and status holders, who are usually more inclined to move to urban centres. Lastly, results from the case studies highlight the importance of designing individualised integration paths backed by social inclusion initiatives that can incite spontaneous collaborations and work relations with local inhabitants. |
| Keywords: | ageing, asylum-seekers, immigration, integration, migrants, refugees, social innovation |
| JEL: | H75 J08 J61 J68 L31 |
| Date: | 2018–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:cfeaaa:2018/03-en&r=ure |
| By: | Alberto Alesina; Michela Carlana; Eliana La Ferrara; Paolo Pinotti |
| Abstract: | If individuals become aware of their stereotypes, do they change their behavior? We study this question in the context of teachers’ bias in grading immigrants and native children in middle schools. Teachers give lower grades to immigrant students compared to natives who have the same performance on standardized, blindly-graded tests. We then relate differences in grading to teachers’ stereotypes, elicited through an Implicit Association Test (IAT). We find that math teachers with stronger stereotypes give lower grades to immigrants compared to natives with the same performance. Literature teachers do not differentially grade immigrants based on their own stereotypes. Finally, we share teachers’ own IAT score with them, randomizing the timing of disclosure around the date on which they assign term grades. All teachers informed of their stereotypes before term grading increase grades assigned to immigrants. Revealing stereotypes may be a powerful intervention to decrease discrimination, but it may also induce a reaction from individuals who were not acting in a biased way. |
| JEL: | F5 I24 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25333&r=ure |
| By: | Želinský, Tomáš; Bauer, Michal; Cahlíková, Jana; Celik-Katreniak, Dagmara; Chytilova, Julie; Cingl, Lubomír |
| Abstract: | This paper provides strong evidence supporting the long-standing speculation that decision-making in groups has a dark side, by magnifying the prevalence of anti-social behavior towards outsiders. A large-scale experiment implemented in Slovakia and Uganda (N=2,309) reveals that deciding in a group with randomly assigned peers increases the prevalence of anti-social behavior that reduces everyone's but which improves the relative position of own group. The effects are driven by the influence of a group context on individual behavior, rather than by group deliberation. The observed patterns are strikingly similar on both continents. |
| JEL: | C92 C93 D01 D64 D74 D91 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13315&r=ure |
| By: | Swapnil Sharma (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | Two sided markets involve two groups of agents who interact via "platforms". This paper analyses competition in a two sided market with congestion. The existing literature's on pricing mechanisms of two-sided markets has concluded that pricing mechanism depends on the following three factors: relative size of cross group externalities, fixed price or per transaction charge by platform, and single homing or multiple homing of agents. This paper extends the analysis by including the effect of congestion on pricing mechanisms in a two sided market. It concludes that in the case of single homing of agents, profits of the platform increase due to congestion if the agents have a low tolerance level, whereas in the case of multi homing, profits of the platform increase due to congestion if the agents have a high tolerance level. |
| Keywords: | Network externalities, Congestion |
| JEL: | L10 L11 L14 D43 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2018-024&r=ure |
| By: | Rickman, Dan S.; Wang, Hongbo |
| Abstract: | The American West has long experienced strong economic growth. The varied economy of the region though has produced a diversity of economic outcomes and trends. In this paper, we assess whether there have been significant relative shifts in economic growth across the nonmetropolitan counties of the region between the periods of 1992-2004 and 2004-2016. We find significant relative downward growth shifts in areas most abundant in natural amenities. Further analysis suggests the downward growth shifts in high amenity counties resulted from the capitalization of the amenities into housing costs, not from diminished quality of life in the counties. Economic growth significantly accelerated in counties where significant oil and gas extractive activity occurred, in which most of the counties were not previously considered as highly dependent on the energy industry. Counties with low levels of natural amenities and an absence of oil and gas resources continued to struggle and are suggested to likely be in need of place-based labor demand policies. |
| Keywords: | Natural amenities; Oil and gas boom; Nonmetropolitan counties |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2018–11–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:90078&r=ure |
| By: | Corbi, Raphael; Papaioannou, Elias; Surico, Paolo |
| Abstract: | A series of discontinuities in the allocation mechanism of federal transfers to municipal governments in Brazil allow us to identify the causal effect of public spending on local labor markets, using a 'fuzzy' Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD). Our estimates imply a cost per job of about 8,000 US dollars per year and a local income multiplier around two. The effect comes mostly from employment in services and is more pronounced among less financially developed municipalities. |
| Keywords: | 'fuzzy' RD; employment; government spending; Natural Experiment; wages |
| JEL: | C26 E62 H72 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13304&r=ure |
| By: | Akamatsu, Takashi; Wada, Kentaro; Iryo, Takamasa; Hayashi, Shunsuke |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a systematic approach for analyzing the departure-time choice equilibrium (DTCE) problem of a single bottleneck with heterogeneous commuters. The approach is based on the fact that the DTCE is equivalently represented as a linear programming problem with a special structure, which can be analytically solved by exploiting the theory of optimal transport combined with a decomposition technique. By applying the proposed approach to several types of models with heterogeneous commuters, it is shown that the dynamic equilibrium distribution of departure times exhibits striking regularities under mild assumptions regarding schedule delay functions, in which commuters sort themselves according to their attributes, such as desired arrival times, schedule delay functions (value of times), and travel distances to a destination. |
| Keywords: | departure time choice equilibrium, linear programming, optimal transport, sorting |
| JEL: | C61 R41 |
| Date: | 2018–12–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:90361&r=ure |
| By: | Ikhenaode, Bright Isaac |
| Abstract: | Focusing on a selected group of 19 OECD countries, we analyze the effects of immigration on natives welfare, labor market outcomes and fiscal redistribution. To this end, we build and simulate a search and matching model that allows for endogenous natives skill acquisition and intergenerational transfers. The obtained results are then compared with different variations of our benchmark model, allowing us to assess to what extent natives skill adjustment and age composition affect the impact of immigration. Our comparative statics analysis suggests that when natives adjust their skill in response to immigration, they successfully avoid, under most scenarios, any potential displacement effect in the labor market. Moreover, taking into account age composition plays a key role in assessing the fiscal impact of immigration, which turns out to be positive when we include retired workers that receive intergenerational transfers. Finally, we find that, under any scenario, our model yields more optimistic welfare effects than a standard search model that abstracts from skill decision and intergenerational redistribution. These welfare effects are found to be overall particularly positive when the migration flows comprise high-skilled workers. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Welfare, Unemployment, Skill Acquisition, Fiscal Redistribution. |
| JEL: | F22 J24 J61 J64 |
| Date: | 2018–11–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:89897&r=ure |
| By: | Gaffney, Edward (Central Bank of Ireland); Kinghan, Christina (Central Bank of Ireland); Nevin, Ciarán (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | This note provides insights into interest-only mortgage lending in Ireland. Most interestonly loans outstanding as at 2017 were extended to buy-to-let (BTL) investors before 2007. Loans originated as interest-only are more likely to be on low tracker interest rates and to have relatively higher loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, with significant shares of negative equity and non-performing loans. Since 2015, less than 2 per cent of BTL loans were agreed on an interest-only repayment schedule. These loans are subject to Central Bank of Ireland mortgage measures, under which recent BTL lending has had average originated LTV ratios significantly below the 70 per cent threshold. Across Europe, only a small number of regulators impose minimum principal repayment requirements. |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:fsnote:03/18&r=ure |
| By: | Jennifer A. Heissel; Emma K. Adam; Jennifer L. Doleac; David N. Figlio; Jonathan Meer |
| Abstract: | A potential contributor to socioeconomic disparities in academic performance is the difference in the level of stress experienced by students outside of school. Chronic stress – due to neighborhood violence, poverty, or family instability – can affect how individuals’ bodies respond to stressors in general, including the stress of standardized testing. This, in turn, can affect whether performance on standardized tests is a valid measure of students’ actual ability. We collect data on students’ stress responses using cortisol samples provided by low-income students in New Orleans. We measure how their cortisol patterns change during high-stakes testing weeks relative to baseline weeks. We find that high-stakes testing does affect cortisol responses, and those responses have consequences for test performance. Those who responded most strongly – with either a large increase or large decrease in cortisol – scored 0.40 standard deviations lower than expected on the on the high-stakes exam. |
| JEL: | I21 I24 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25305&r=ure |
| By: | Aleksandra Sazhina (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Coproduction is a practice that encourages active interaction between customers and producers in creating products, services or events. In the urban management framework the above-mentioned concept is just starting to be put into practice and is characterized by the involvement of residents in different city activities' organization including mega events managed by local authorities. The new types of interaction between residents and authorities include participation of residents as volunteers in organization and carrying out of different city events and activities, mass collaboration or crowdsourcing, crowdfunding, recommendations to external stakeholders, couchsurfing, and slum tourism. The article examines the theoretical aspects of coproduction concept introduction in urban development, describes the types of interaction between residents and local authorities as well as the benefits of this interaction. The author has developed and empirically verified a conceptual model for willingness assessment of residents to participate in coproduction of mega events based on the example of the city of Volgograd which hosted one of the Football World Cup stages. |
| Keywords: | coproduction, residents, urban development, mega events, place marketing |
| JEL: | R19 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:07/urb/2018&r=ure |
| By: | ITF |
| Abstract: | The success of Mexico City’s New International Airport will depend not least on the quality of access to the airport on the ground. This report reviews policies and planning controls for surface access at a selection of comparable airports in cities of OECD countries. It offers input for the Mexican Federal Government’s plans for infrastructure investments that will serve passengers, the airport workforce and the public by ensuring convenient, reliable airport journeys; supporting business travel for a productive Mexican economy; and by maintaining within acceptable bounds the airport’s impact on road congestion and related air pollution.This report was prepared in collaboration with the OECD’s Directorate for Public Governance. |
| Date: | 2018–10–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaac:60-en&r=ure |
| By: | Yolanda Rebollo-Sanz (Universidad Pablo de Olavide); Jesús Rodríguez-López (Universidad Pablo de Olavide); Nùria Rodríguez-Planas (Queens College - CUNY) |
| Abstract: | Using a quasi-experimental approach, we study the causal effect of introducing a penalty-point system (PPS) on drivers, accidents, injuries and fatalities. We find that the PPS decreased the number of traffic offenders by 13.8%. In addition, the deterrence effect was directly related to the size of the point loss. The PPS reform also curbed PPS-related accidents, injuries and fatalities by 14,2%, 15.1% and 16.1%, respectively. These findings are robust to a battery of tests, including a placebo test with a fictitious reform date. Crucially, the timing of the PPS implementation had no effect on road incidents unrelated to PPS regulations. |
| Keywords: | Road safety, law enforcement, driving license, and discontinuity-based model. |
| JEL: | K32 K41 R41 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pab:wpaper:18.14&r=ure |
| By: | Tsiropoulos, Vasilis (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | This note assesses the vulnerability of mortgaged Irish households to financial shocks. It uses the Central Bank of Ireland’s Loan Loss Forecasting internal model and employs loan level data provided by the five main mortgage lenders. The model calculates a vulnerability index for currently performing mortgages under a certain adverse scenario which involves movements in the unemployment rate, house prices and interest rates. The model predicts that the most vulnerable households are those with high current loan-to-value ratios, multiple loans, loans that originated between 2004 and 2009 and those in South-East, Midland and Border region. |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:fsnote:02/18&r=ure |
| By: | Jain, Tarun (Indian School of Business); Mukhopadhyay, Abhiroop (Indian Statistical Institute); Prakash, Nishith (University of Connecticut); Rakesh, Raghav (Michigan State University) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the association between studying science at the higher secondary stage and labor market earnings using nationally representative data on high school subject choices and adult outcomes for urban males in India. Results show that those who studied science in high school have 22% greater earnings than those who studied business and humanities, even after controlling for several measures of ability. These higher earnings among science students are further enhanced if the students also have some fluency in English. Moreover, greater earnings are observed among individuals with social and parental support for translating science skills into higher earnings. Science education is also associated with more years of education, likelihood of completing a professional degree, and among low ability students, working in public sector positions. |
| Keywords: | high-school majors, labor markets, science, STEM, India |
| JEL: | J24 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11934&r=ure |
| By: | Pierre Fleckinger (MINES ParisTech and PSL University & Paris School of Economics); Matthieu Glachant (MINES ParisTech and PSL University); Paul-Hervé Tamokoué Kamga (MINES ParisTech and PSL University) |
| Abstract: | In the European Union, Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) provide potential buyers or tenants with information on a property's energy performance. By mitigating informational asymmetries on real estate markets, the conventional wisdom is that they will reduce energy use, increase energy-efficiency investments, and improve social welfare. We develop a dynamic model that partly contradicts these predictions. Although EPCs always improve social welfare, their impact on energy use and investments is ambiguous. This implies that, in a second-best world where energy externalities are under-priced and/or homeowners have behavioral biases hindering investments (myopia), EPCs can damage social welfare. This calls for using mandatory energy labeling in contexts where additional instruments efficiently mitigate the other imperfections. |
| Keywords: | Energy Labeling, Energy Efficiency, Buildings |
| JEL: | Q48 R31 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ieb:wpaper:doc2018-11&r=ure |
| By: | Nicolas Wagner (International Transport Forum) |
| Abstract: | This paper puts numbers on the investment needs for urban transport infrastructure under different policy scenarios. The cities of the future will be shaped by today’s decisions about physical transport assets, and the urgent need to halt climate change makes it more important than ever to get it right. The analysis shows that a low-carbon transport system is not necessarily more expensive than today’s mobility system, and can even be more cost-efficient. |
| Date: | 2018–11–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaab:2018/20-en&r=ure |
| By: | Antoine Beyer (University of Cergy-Pontoise) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the opportunities and challenges of integrating inland waterways into transport corridors. Less than a fifth of the world’s 623 000 kilometres of navigable inland waterways is currently used for freight transport. Although river transport has expanded in some countries, it is actually declining in others due to lagging investments or co-ordination. At the same time, urban development is encroaching on inland ports, reducing the space for logistics activities in many river ports, creating challenges for policy makers. |
| Date: | 2018–10–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:itfaab:2018/21-en&r=ure |
| By: | Narciso, Gaia; Severgnini, Battista; Vardanyan, Gayane |
| Abstract: | This study investigates how negative historical shocks can explain migration in the long-run. We construct a unique dataset based on the early 20th century Irish Census data and a selection of the Ellis Island Administrative Records which allow us to test whether the Great Irish Famine (1845-1850), one of the most lethal starvation in history, has shaped the decision of migrating to the USA in the following 70 years. We control for several set of individual and geographical characteristics and we find that the Irish Famine was an important significant driver of individuals’ migration choices. Instrumental variable analysis based on the exogenous spread of the potato blight provides consistent results. |
| Keywords: | Mass migration,negative shock,long-run impact,Great Famine |
| JEL: | F22 N33 N93 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:187690&r=ure |
| By: | Susan Dynarski; C.J. Libassi; Katherine Michelmore; Stephanie Owen |
| Abstract: | Low-income students, even those with strong academic credentials, are unlikely to attend a highly selective college. With a field experiment, we test an intervention to increase enrollment of low-income students at the highly selective University of Michigan. We contact students (as well as their parents and principals) with an encouragement to apply and a promise of four years of free tuition and fees upon admission. Materials emphasize that this offer is not contingent on completing aid applications (e.g., the FAFSA or PROFILE). Treated students were more than twice as likely to apply to (67 percent vs. 26 percent) and enroll at (27 percent vs. 12 percent) the University of Michigan. There was no diversion from schools as (or more) selective as UM. The enrollment effect of 15 percentage points (pp) comprises students who would otherwise attend a less selective, four-year college (7 pp), a community college (4 pp), or no college (4 pp). Effects persist through two years of follow-up. The intervention closed by half the income gaps in college choice among Michigan's high-achieving students. We conclude that an encouragement to apply, paired with a promise of aid, when communicated to students and influential adults, can substantially close income gaps in college choices. |
| JEL: | I0 I21 I22 I23 I24 I28 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25349&r=ure |
| By: | Rabovic, Renata (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management) |
| Abstract: | This doctoral thesis is composed of three chapters on economics of education and econometric theory. Chapter 2 studies how students interact in teams and gives some guidance to educators how to group students to increase their academic knowledge obtained from teamwork. Chapter 3 provides some initial analysis which will be used in future research to investigate whether teachers' subjective assessments are driven by superior information about pupils or by their biases and mistaken beliefs. It is important to disentangle these two forms of teacher discretion, because they have different policy implications. If teacher discretion stems from their biases or mistaken beliefs, educational institutions may want to minimize the reliance on teachers' assessments. On the other hand, if teachers take into account abilities not captured by the standardized test, educational institutions may prefer to give more weight to their assessments. Chapter 3 proposes a new estimator for spatial sample selection models. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:df993490-b694-4b76-bde5-6945f8d788f8&r=ure |
| By: | NAKAGAWA Mariko |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we analyze how skill transference from an origin to destination country, captured by lower productivity at the destination caused by differences in language use, affects international migration by skilled workers, using a multi-country NEG model proposed by Gasper et al. (2017). Specifically, our interest is to explain how less frictional countries in terms of linguistic communication such as those in the Anglosphere (English-speaking countries) attract more highly-skilled international migrants. The analysis based on asymmetric skill transference among countries, in which the world is divided into two groups, Anglosphere (English-speaking countries) and non-Anglosphere (non-English-speaking countries), finds that countries in the Anglosphere are more likely to be the industrial core attracting all skilled (and imperfectly mobile) workers than countries in the non-Anglosphere. Also, we find that less frictional migration from the non-Anglosphere to the Anglosphere always accelerates industrial agglomeration in the Anglosphere core country, while both less frictional migration within the Anglosphere and expanding the Anglosphere (an increase in the number of countries constituting the Anglosphere) do not always accelerate industrial agglomeration in the Anglosphere due to the market crowding effect. |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:18083&r=ure |
| By: | Ninja Ritter Klejnstrup (University of Copenhagen); Anna Folke Larsen (The Rockwool Foundation); Helene Bie Lilleør (The Rockwool Foundation); Marianne Simonsen (Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University, Denmark) |
| Abstract: | Social emotional learning programs have been found to lead to immediate improvements in cognitive, social and emotional competences. Meanwhile, most evidence to date refers to the United States, and most other countries lack locally tailored teaching materials for socio-emotional learning. Further, there is a lack of knowledge about which subgroups benefit more. Such knowledge is important, because it could provide evidence relevant for both explaining and addressing inequality in educational achieving across subgroups of pupils. Knowledge about longer-term impacts on academic achievement is also called for. This protocol describes an experimental evaluation of a recently developed social emotional learning program implemented in Denmark. The evaluation combines survey data with register-based data, where the latter source allows for tracking of participant outcomes with minimal risk of attrition. |
| Keywords: | Social emotional learning, well-being, academic achievement, problem behavior, subgroups, longer-term follow up |
| JEL: | I2 I31 |
| Date: | 2018–12–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aah:aarhec:2018-11&r=ure |
| By: | Christopher L. House; Christian Proebsting; Linda L. Tesar |
| Abstract: | Unemployment differentials are bigger in Europe than in the United States. Migration responds to unemployment differentials, though the response is smaller in Europe. Mundell (1961) argued that factor mobility is a precondition for a successful currency union. We use a multi-country DSGE model with cross-border migration and search frictions to quantify the benefits of increased labor mobility in Europe and compare this outcome to a case of fully flexible exchange rates. Labor mobility and flexible exchange rates both work to reduce unemployment and per capita GDP differentials across countries provided that monetary policy is sufficiently responsive to national output. |
| JEL: | E24 E42 E52 E58 F15 F16 F22 F33 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25347&r=ure |
| By: | Elisa Hofmann (Friedrich Schiller University Jena); Michael E. Fiagbenu (Friedrich Schiller University Jena); Asri Özgümüs (Georg-August University Göttingen); Amir M. Tahamtan (Sharif University of Technology, Teheran); Tobias Regner (Friedrich Schiller University Jena) |
| Abstract: | We experimentally investigate two relevant drivers of payments in voluntary settings: the ef- fects of audience and peers. Our 2×2 between-subjects design varies the interpersonal closeness of buyers (Strangers vs. Peers) and the observability of their payments to other buyers (Anonymous vs. Public). This allows us to enrich the research on both drivers and identify whether payment observability (audience effect), the presence of known others (peer effect), or the combination of both affects voluntary payments. Payments are, on average, higher if they are made public and if buyers feel close to each other. While the effect of audience and peers on payments is additive in total, we do not find an interaction effect, if payments are observed by peers. |
| Keywords: | social preferences, experiments, social image concerns, Pay-What-You-Want, interpersonal closeness |
| JEL: | C91 D03 L11 |
| Date: | 2018–12–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jrp:jrpwrp:2018-019&r=ure |
| By: | Dynarski, Susan (University of Michigan); Jacob, Brian A. (University of Michigan); Kreisman, Daniel |
| Abstract: | A substantial and rapidly growing literature has developed around estimating earnings gains from two-year college degrees using administrative data. These papers almost universally employ a person-level fixed effects strategy to estimate earnings premia net of fixed attributes. We note that the seminal piece on which these papers build, Jacobson, Lalonde and Sullivan (Journal of Econometrics, 2005), provides theoretical and empirical evidence for the importance of additionally differencing out individual time-trends. The subsequent literature has not followed suit. Through replication we ask whether this matters. We show that it does, and further that these person-level time-trends need not be computationally burdensome in large administrative data. We recommend them as a unifying econometric standard for future work. |
| Keywords: | fixed effects, community college, wages |
| JEL: | C51 C52 C54 J31 |
| Date: | 2018–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11935&r=ure |
| By: | Attali, Yigal; Neeman, Zvika; Schlosser, Analia |
| Abstract: | We study how different demographic groups respond to incentives by comparing their performance in "high" and "low" stakes situations. The high stakes situation is the GRE examination and the low stakes situation is a voluntary experimental section of the GRE. We find that Males exhibit a larger drop in performance between the high and low stakes examinations than females, and Whites exhibit a larger drop in performance compared to minorities. Differences between high and low stakes tests are partly explained by the fact that males and whites exert lower effort in low stakes tests compared to females and minorities. |
| Keywords: | Experiment; Gender Gap; GRE; high stakes; incentives; low stakes; Performance; race gap |
| JEL: | C93 I23 I24 J15 J16 J24 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13360&r=ure |
| By: | Victor Lavy; Assaf Kott; Genia Rachkovski |
| Abstract: | We analyze in this paper the long term effect of a high school remedial education program, almost two decades after its implementation. We combine high school records with National Social Security administrative data to examine longer-term outcomes when students were in their early 30s. Our evidence suggest that treated students experienced a 10 percentage points increase in completed years of college schooling, an increase in annual earnings of 4 percentage points, an increase of 1.5 percentage points in months employed, and a significant increase in intergenerational income mobility. These gains are reflecting mainly improvement in outcomes of students from below median income families. Therefore, we conclude that remedial education program that targeted underachieving students in their last year of high school had gains that went much beyond the short term significant improvements in high school matriculation exams. A cost benefit analysis of the program suggests that the government will recover its cost within 7-8 years, implying a very high rate of return to this remedial education program. |
| JEL: | I28 J24 |
| Date: | 2018–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25332&r=ure |
| By: | World Bank Group |
| Keywords: | Transport - Transport Economics Policy & Planning Urban Development - National Urban Development Policies & Strategies Urban Development - Regional Urban Development Urban Development - Transport in Urban Areas Urban Development - Urban Economic Development Urban Development - Urban Governance and Management Urban Development - Urban Housing Urban Development - Urban Poverty Urban Development - Urban Services to the Poor |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:30042&r=ure |
| By: | Maria Grabovskaya (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Ekaterina Gridneva (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Andrian Vlakhov (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | This study deals with the politeness strategies of speakers of Russian, focusing on verbal expression of politeness. After running a field survey in schools in mid-2018, we try to analyze specific verbal markers of expressing politeness quantitatively. Four such markers were selected for this study, namely greeting, leave-taking, expressing gratitude and apology. Quantitative analysis shows that there is a clear frequency pattern found in these markers’ use, indicating a relatively high degree of sociolinguistic variation. Possible causes of this effect are discussed, including cultural diversity and multilingual setting of the modern Russian school communicative domain |
| Keywords: | Russian, politeness, sociolinguistics, linguistic anthropology, greetings, leave-taking, gratitudes, apology |
| JEL: | Z |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:68/lng/2018&r=ure |
| By: | World Bank Group |
| Keywords: | Environment - Carbon Policy and Trading Environment - Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases Environment - Environment and Energy Efficiency Urban Development - National Urban Development Policies & Strategies Urban Development - Urban Economic Development Urban Development - Urban Environment |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wboper:30611&r=ure |