|
on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Neumann, Uwe |
| Abstract: | In countries with an ageing population, regional migration may accentuate local progress in demographic change. This paper investigates whether and to what extent diversity in ageing among urban neighbourhoods in Germany was reinforced by regional migration during the past two decades. The old-industrialised Ruhr in North Rhine- Westphalia serves as a case study representing an advanced regional stage in ageing. The analysis proceeds in two steps. First, variation in the pace of neighbourhood-level demographic change over the period 1998-2008 is examined using KOSTAT, an annual time series compiled by municipal statistical offices. Second, a discrete choice model of household location preferences is applied to study the underlying demographic sorting process. The second step draws on microdata from a representative population survey carried out in 2010. During the 1990s and 2000s, in contrast to earlier decades, age differentials in location preferences became more profound and city centres became more popular as residential location. Rapid "ageing by feet" now affects neighbourhoods, where the influx is low, particularly low-density housing areas of the outer urban zone. Neighbourhood-level demographic sorting proceeds at a somewhat slower pace in the Ruhr than in the more prosperous cities of the nearby Rhineland (Bonn, Cologne and Dusseldorf). In the process of regional adaptation to demographic change, greater diversity in the age structure of neighbourhood populations may turn out to be an advantage in the long-run competition over mobile households. |
| Keywords: | ageing,segregation,neighbourhood sorting,discrete choice |
| JEL: | C21 C25 O18 R23 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:665&r=ure |
| By: | Chen, Jie (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how transformations in the housing system in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) influence the PRC pattern of urbanization. It first discusses how housing policies determine the supply and demand of housing in urban PRC and subsequently analyzes how the changes in the mode of housing provision have affected rural–urban migration, intercity labor mobility, the financing of urban infrastructure, and general urban economic activities in the PRC. The PRC experience of the interaction between the housing system and urbanization is unique, but it clearly indicates that an effective housing system that can responsively provide adequate and affordable housing is crucial to the success of inclusive and equitable urbanization. |
| Keywords: | housing policy; rural-urban migration; intercity labor mobility; urban infrastructure; urbanization; inclusive urbanization; equitable urbanization |
| JEL: | R30 R38 |
| Date: | 2016–12–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0602&r=ure |
| By: | Steven Laufer; Andrew D. Paciorek |
| Abstract: | Since the housing bust and financial crisis, mortgage lenders have introduced progressively higher minimum thresholds for acceptable credit scores. Using loan-level data, we document the introduction of these thresholds, as well as their effects on the distribution of newly originated mortgages. We then use the timing and nonlinearity of these supply-side changes to credibly identify their short- and medium-run effects on various individual outcomes. Using a large panel of consumer credit data, we show that the credit score thresholds have very large negative effects on borrowing in the short run, and that these effects attenuate over time but remain sizable up to four years later. The effects are particularly concentrated among younger adults and those living in middle-income or moderately black census tracts. In aggregate, we estimate that lenders' use of minimum credit scores reduced the total number of newly originated mortgages by about 2 percent in the years following the financial crisis. We also find that, among individuals who already had mortgages, retaining access to mortgage credit reduced delinquency on both mortgage and non-mortgage debt and increased their propensity to take out auto loans, but had little effect on migration across metropolitan areas. |
| Keywords: | Credit scores ; Credit supply ; Mortgages and credit ; Residential Real Estate |
| JEL: | D14 G21 D12 R3 |
| Date: | 2016–12–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2016-98&r=ure |
| By: | Konstantin Büchel und Maximilian von Ehrlich |
| Abstract: | Social interactions are considered pivotal to urban agglomeration forces. This study employs a unique dataset on mobile phone calls to examine how social interactions differ across cities and peripheral areas. We first show that geographical distance is highly detrimental to interpersonal exchange. We then reveal that individuals residing in high-density locations do not benefit from larger social networks, but from a more efficient structure in terms of higher matching quality and lower clustering. These results are derived from two complementary approaches: Based on a link Formation model, we examine how geographical distance, network overlap, and sociodemographic (dis)similarities impact the likelihood that two agents interact. We further decompose the effects from individual, location, and time specific determinants on micro-level network measures by exploiting information on mobile phone users who change their place of residence. |
| Keywords: | Social Interactions; Agglomeration Externalities; Network Analysis; Sorting |
| JEL: | R1 R23 Z13 D85 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp1608&r=ure |
| By: | Stephanie Moulton (The Ohio State University); Donald Haurin (The Ohio State University); Samuel Dodini (Cornell University); Maximilian D. Schmeiser (Amazon and the University of Wisconsin) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how the extraction of home equity, including but not limited to equity extracted through reverse mortgages, affects credit outcomes of senior households. We use data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, supplemented with our unique credit panel dataset of reverse mortgage borrowers. We track credit outcomes for seniors who extracted equity through cash-out refinancing, home equity lines of credit or home equity loans between 2008 and 2011, and a random sample of nonextractors. We estimate differences-in-differences by extraction channel using individual, fixed-effects panel regression. We find that seniors extracting equity through reverse mortgages have greater reductions in consumer debt, and are less likely to become delinquent or foreclose three years post origination relative to other extractors and nonextractors. These effects are greater among households who experienced a credit shock within the two years prior to loan origination. To help isolate the effect of the extraction channel on credit outcomes, we re-estimate our models with a matched sample of consumers at the time of extraction. We find that otherwise similar HECM borrowers have larger reductions in credit card debt post-extraction than other equity borrowers and non-borrowers, with no significant difference in the rates of delinquency on non-housing debt post extraction. For HECM borrowers, we find that increased initial withdrawal and increased monthly cash flow contribute to the reduction in credit card debt. |
| Date: | 2016–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mrr:papers:wp351&r=ure |
| By: | Jennifer Brown; David A. Matsa |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how housing market distress affects job search. Using data from a leading online job search platform during the Great Recession, we find that job seekers in areas with depressed housing markets apply for fewer jobs that require relocation. With their search constrained geographically, job seekers broaden their search to lower level positions nearby. These effects are stronger for job seekers with recourse mortgages, which we confirm using spatial regression discontinuity analysis. Our findings suggest that housing market distress distorts labor market outcomes by impeding household mobility. |
| JEL: | D14 J64 R21 R23 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22929&r=ure |
| By: | John Haisken-DeNew; Syed Hasan; Nikhil Jha; Mathias Sinning |
| Abstract: | The Australian Government launched the My School website in 2010 to provide standardised information about the quality of schools to the Australian public. This paper combines data from this website with home sales data for the state of Victoria to estimate the effect of the publication of school quality information on property prices. We use a difference-in-difference approach to estimate the causal effect of the release of information about high-quality and low-quality schools relative to medium-quality schools in the neighborhood and find that the release of information about high-quality schools increases property prices by 3.6 percent, whereas the release of information about low-quality schools has no significant effect. The findings indicate that many buyers are unaware of the relevance of school quality information and that real estate agents pursue a strategy of disclosing information about high-quality schools to increase the sales price. Results from a survey of Victorian real estate agents provide evidence in favor of this strategy. |
| Keywords: | School quality, housing markets, information asymmetry, public policy evaluation, difference-in-difference estimation |
| JEL: | D82 D84 I24 R31 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:een:crwfrp:2016-03&r=ure |
| By: | Christopher L. Foote; Lara Loewenstein; Paul S. Willen |
| Abstract: | The reallocation of mortgage debt to low-income or marginally qualified borrowers plays a central role in many explanations of the early 2000s housing boom. We show that such a reallocation never occurred, as the distribution of mortgage debt with respect to income changed little even as the aggregate stock of debt grew rapidly. Moreover, because mortgage debt varies positively with income in the cross section, equal percentage increases in debt among high- and low-income borrowers meant that wealthy borrowers accounted for most new debt in dollar terms. Previous research stressing the importance of low-income borrowing was based on the inflow of new mortgage originations alone, so it could not detect offsetting outflows in mortgage terminations that left the allocation of debt stable over time. And while defaults on subprime mortgages played an important part in the financial crisis, the data show that subprime lending did not cause a reallocation of debt toward the poor. Rather, subprime lending prevented a reallocation of debt toward the wealthy. |
| JEL: | D12 D14 E03 G21 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22985&r=ure |
| By: | Coria, Jessica (Department of Economics, School of Business, Economics and Law, Göteborg University); Zhang, Xiao-Bing (School of Economics, Renmin University of China.) |
| Abstract: | Road pricing can improve air quality by reducing and spreading traffic flows. Nevertheless, air quality does not depend only on traffic flows, but also on pollution dispersion. In this paper we investigate the effects of the temporal variation in pollution dispersion on optimal road pricing, and show that time-varying road pricing is needed to make drivers internalize the social costs of both time-varying congestion and time- varying pollution. To this end, we develop an ecological economics model that takes into account the effects of road pricing on integrated daily commuting patterns. We characterize the optimal road pricing when pollution dispersion varies over the day and analyze its effects on traffic flows, arrival times, and the number of commuters by car. |
| Keywords: | Air pollution; Road transportation; Road pricing; Pollution dispersion |
| JEL: | Q53 Q58 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:gunwpe:0682&r=ure |
| By: | Xing, Chunbing (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | The relationship between human capital development and urbanization in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is explored, highlighting the institutional factors of the hukou system and a decentralized fiscal system. Educated workers disproportionately reside in urban areas and in large cities. Returns to education are significantly higher in urban areas relative to those in rural areas, as well as in large, educated cities relative to small, less-educated cities. In addition, the external returns to education in urban areas are at least comparable to the magnitude of private returns. Rural areas are the major reservoir for urban population growth, and the more educated have a higher chance of moving to cities and obtaining urban hukou. Relaxing the hukou restriction, increasing education levels of rural residents, providing training for rural–urban migrants, and guaranteeing equal opportunity for all residents are necessary for a sustainable urbanization process in the PRC. In terms of health, rural–urban migration is selective in that healthy rural residents choose to migrate. Occupational choices and living conditions are detrimental to migrants’ health, however. While migration has a positive effect on migrant children, its effect on “left-behind” children is unclear. |
| Keywords: | Human capital; health; education; development; hukou system; urbanization |
| JEL: | I12 J24 R23 |
| Date: | 2016–12–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0603&r=ure |
| By: | Vincent Viguié (CIRED) |
| Abstract: | Long term strategies, relying on city planning and travel demand management, are essential if deep GHG reduction ambitions are to be achieved in urban transport sector. However, how to precisely design such strategies remains unclear. Indeed, whereas there is a broad consensus that urban spatial structure is a key determinant in explaining travel pattern generation, the mechanisms are not yet fully understood. Especially, the interplay between commuting and localization choices leading to cross commuting in a polycentric city remains an open question, and cannot be easily explained using existing urban economics frameworks. In this study, we introduce a novel urban economic framework, fully micro-economic based, which describes land prices, population distribution and commuting travel choices in a polycentric city, with jobs locations exogenously given. It relies on the modeling of moving costs and market imperfections, especially housing-search imperfections. Using Paris as a case study, we show how this model, when adequately calibrated, reproduces available data on the internal structure of the city (rents, population densities, travel choices). A validation over the 1900-2010 period also shows that the model captures the main determinants of city shape evolution over this time. This suggests that this tool can be used to inform policy decisions. |
| Keywords: | urban economics, cross-commuting, urban planning, climate change mitigation |
| JEL: | Q5 R14 R4 |
| Date: | 2015–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fae:ppaper:2015.03&r=ure |
| By: | Goldman, Benjamin (Standford Institute for Economic Policy Research); Klier, Thomas H. (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago); Walstrum, Thomas (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | To date, most empirical studies of industrial agglomeration rely on data where observations are assigned an industry code based on classification systems such as NAICS in North America and NACE in Europe. This study combines industry data with occupation data to show that there are important differences in the spatial patterns of occupation groups within the widely used industry definitions. We focus on workers in manufacturing industries, whose occupations almost always fit into three groups: production, administrative, or R&D. We then employ two approaches to document the spatial distributions of each group within an industry. First, we calculate the distribution of employment shares across local labor markets and second, we calculate a version of the Duranton and Overman (2005) agglomeration index. Both approaches reveal appreciable differences in the spatial distribution of occupation groups within most manufacturing industries. These differences have important implications for our understanding of the sources of industrial agglomeration, the spatial agglomeration of innovation, the effectiveness of local economic development initiatives, and the spatial properties of particular industries. |
| Keywords: | Agglomeration; automobiles; manufacturing industries; labor markets; occupations |
| JEL: | J24 L6 L62 O10 R12 |
| Date: | 2016–11–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2016-20&r=ure |
| By: | W. Walker Hanlon |
| Abstract: | While the Industrial Revolution brought economic growth, there is a long debate in economics over the costs of the pollution externalities that accompanied early industrialization. To help settle this debate, this paper introduces a new theoretically-grounded strategy for estimating the impact of industrial pollution on local economic development and applies this approach to data from British cities for 1851-1911. I show that local industrial coal use substantially reduced long-run city employment growth over this period. Moreover, a counterfactual analysis suggests that plausible improvements in coal use efficiency would have led to substantially higher urbanization rates in Britain by 1911. |
| JEL: | N13 N53 Q52 R11 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22921&r=ure |
| By: | Benoît Laine; Alex Van Steenbergen |
| Abstract: | This paper seeks to quantify the size and traffic effects of commuting subsidies in Belgium. To this end we implement the most recently available data on both the personal income tax treatment of commuting reimbursement and subsidies to rail commuters in the PLANET model. We find that subsidy rates by tend to differ strongly by mode and by type of reimbursement. Commuting by own car is generally subsidized at low levels, if it enjoys any subsidy at all. Commuting by company car, bike and public transport enjoy relatively high levels of subsidization. Policy simulations show the importance of commuting subsidies in steering the modal split. Both the exemptions for commuting reimbursements as well as subsidies for rail commuters moderately steer traffic away from private transport, while also lengthening the average commute. |
| JEL: | D62 H24 R41 |
| Date: | 2016–10–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpb:wpaper:1611&r=ure |
| By: | Amy Ellen Schwartz (Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244); Douglas Almond (Columbia University and NBER); Ajin Lee (Columbia University) |
| Abstract: | Performance on proficiency exams can be a key determinant of whether students are retained or "held back" in their grade. In New York City, passing the statewide proficiency exam essentially guarantees promotion, while roughly 13% of those students who fail the exam are retained. Using regression discontinuity methods, we find that female students are 25% more likely to be retained in their grade due to exam failure than boys. Hispanic students are 60% more likely and Black students 120% more likely to be retained due to exam failure (relative to White students). Poverty and previous poor performance also increase the likelihood of retention, while being young for grade or short does not. We conclude that "patterned discretion" exists in how standardized test results are utilized. |
| Keywords: | Grade Retention; Promotion Policy; New York City; Public School; Regression Discontinuity Design |
| JEL: | I21 I28 J15 J16 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:max:cprwps:198&r=ure |
| By: | Krenz, Astrid |
| Abstract: | This paper uses a comprehensive, official firm-level dataset for German manufacturing firms to investigate the location decision of new firm activity in the German regional economy, differentiated by firm structure. The rich regional dimension of this dataset is investigated for the first time in regard to the location choices of firms. Results reveal that agglomeration economies play a significant role for small firms, but not for medium-sized and large firms. Whereas the market potential exerts a significant positive impact for all firms, labor costs do not exert a significant impact on large firms' location decisions. |
| Keywords: | Firm location,Regional economy,Agglomeration economies |
| JEL: | R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cegedp:298&r=ure |
| By: | Paul Frijters; Asadul Islam; Debayan Pakrashi |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effects of random dormitory assignment in a tertiary level educational institution in India on students’ subsequent academic achievements. The effects of peer ability are around one-third as high as that of own ability, and strongly non-linear. We find that students from non-urban and non-English backgrounds do particularly better when assigned to higher-ability peers. Via policy simulations, we find that assortative matching maximises average grades and leads to higher grades than random matching for each group except for the most disadvantaged group (the backward social classes). We also examine channels and mechanisms through which peer effects work in our context. |
| Keywords: | peer effects, social class, ability, education |
| JEL: | I18 I23 I25 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2016-39&r=ure |
| By: | Chris Wokker (Treasury, Government of Australia); John Swieringa (Treasury, Government of Australia) |
| Abstract: | This study uses fixed effects panel regression techniques to estimate the impact of foreign demand for Australian residential real estate on property prices. All model specifications find a positive relationship between foreign investment approvals and price growth at the postcode level, but the majority of price growth experienced in recent times does not appear to be attributable to increased foreign demand. This is unsurprising given that in the short run the supply of residential property is relatively fixed so any increase in demand, whether domestic or foreign, should result in higher prices. Indeed, there have been many other significant domestic drivers of property prices over the period examined. The majority of foreign investment approvals are for new as opposed to established dwellings. This provides some indication that, in the longer-term, foreign demand is increasing property supply consistent with Australia’s foreign investment framework. |
| Keywords: | Foreign Investment, Residential Real Estate, House Prices |
| JEL: | F21 R31 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tsy:wpaper:wpaper_tsy_wp_2016_3&r=ure |
| By: | Fredrik Andersson; John C. Haltiwanger; Mark J. Kutzbach; Giordano Palloni; Henry O. Pollakowski; Daniel H. Weinberg |
| Abstract: | To date, research on the long-term effects of childhood participation in voucher-assisted and public housing has been limited by the lack of data and suitable identification strategies. We create a national level longitudinal data set that enables us to analyze how children’s housing experiences affect adult earnings and incarceration rates. While naive estimates suggest there are substantial negative consequences to childhood participation in voucher assisted and public housing, this result appears to be driven largely by selection of households into housing assistance programs. To mitigate this source of bias, we employ household fixed-effects specifications that use only within-household (across-sibling) variation for identification. Compared to naive specifications, household fixed-effects estimates for earnings are universally more positive, and they suggest that there are positive and statistically significant benefits from childhood residence in assisted housing on young adult earnings for nearly all demographic groups. Childhood participation in assisted housing also reduces the likelihood of incarceration across all household race/ethnicity groups. Time spent in voucher-assisted or public housing is especially beneficial for females from non-Hispanic Black households, who experience substantial increases in expected earnings and lower incarceration rates. |
| JEL: | H43 I31 I38 J38 J62 |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:13-48rr&r=ure |
| By: | Dauth, Wolfgang (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Haller, Peter (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]) |
| Abstract: | "We analyze the causal effect of commuting on wages, using a large sample of German job changers. Information on their home and workplace addresses in combination with road navigation software allows us to calculate exact door-to-door commuting distances with an unprecedented degree of precision. We use a theoretical model on spatial job search to motivate our empirical strategy. By focusing on job moves, we can use panel data techniques and control for unobserved individual heterogeneity. We find an asymmetric valuation of distance changes. Job changers value a reduction of their commuting distance higher than an increase. Apparently, individuals are not able to capitalize the full costs of commuting in their wages. A large part of this effect can be explained by sorting into certain firms at different distances and the rest by individual wage bargaining." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| JEL: | J31 J64 R12 R40 |
| Date: | 2016–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201643&r=ure |
| By: | David Berger; Nicholas Turner; Eric Zwick |
| Abstract: | This paper studies temporary policy incentives designed to address capital overhang by inducing asset demand from buyers in the private market. Using variation across local geographies in ex ante program exposure and a difference-in-differences design, we find that the First-Time Homebuyer Credit induced a cumulative increase in home sales of 397 to 546 thousand, or 7.8 to 10.7 percent, nationally. We find little evidence of a sharp reversal of the policy response; instead, demand comes from several years in the future. The program likely sped the process of reallocating homes from distressed sellers to high value buyers, which stabilized house prices. The response is concentrated in the existing home sales market, implying the stimulative effects of the program were less important than its role in accelerating reallocation. |
| JEL: | E62 E65 G18 H31 R38 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22903&r=ure |
| By: | Walid Oueslati |
| Abstract: | The provision of open space is at the heart of a complex arbitration of local public finance and urban quality of life. The amount of open space varies substantially across urban areas. This variation raises some natural questions: What determines the amount of open space in an urban area? How does the amount of open space affect housing prices and local tax revenues? How can we assess whether the amount of open space in urban areas is socially optimal? This paper conducts theoretical and empirical analysis to address these issues. The theoretical analysis reveals that price elasticities of housing demand and supply, economies of scale in providing public services, and capitalized and non-capitalized values of environmental benefits from open space are key parameters affecting the optimal amount of open space. The effects of these parameters are tested on the basis of a sample of U.S. urban areas. Empirical results suggest that a significant share of U.S. urban areas has too little open space, in the sense that additional open space conservation could increase land values and social welfare. L’offre des espaces ouverts en milieu urbain est au coeur d’un complexe arbitrage entre les finances publiques locales et la qualité de la vie. Les surfaces dédiées aux espaces ouverts varient considérablement à travers les aires urbaines. Cette variabilité soulève naturellement plusieurs questions : quels sont les déterminants de cette offre ? Comment la mise en place des espaces verts affecte les prix des logements et les recettes fiscales locales ? Comment peut-on évaluer si l’offre des espaces verts est socialement optimale ? Ce papier conduit des analyses théorique et empirique pour répondre à ces questions. L’analyse théorique révèle que les élasticités prix de l’offre et de demande des logements, les économies d’échelle liées aux services publics, ainsi que les valeurs, capitalisée ou non, des bénéfices environnementaux sont les facteurs clés pour déterminer le niveau optimal des espaces ouverts. Les effets de ces paramètres ont été empiriquement testés sur la base d’un échantillon d’aires urbaines américaines. Les résultats empiriques suggèrent qu’une part significative des aires urbaines américaine dispose de peu d’espaces ouverts. Ainsi une offre supplémentaire peut accroître la valeur des terres et le bien-être social. |
| Keywords: | environmental amenities, land values, local public finances, Open space conservation |
| JEL: | H4 Q2 R3 |
| Date: | 2016–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:112-en&r=ure |
| By: | Robert W. Fairlie; Ariel Kalil |
| Abstract: | Concerns over the perceived negative impacts of computers on social development among children are prevalent but largely uninformed by plausibly causal evidence. We provide the first test of this hypothesis using a large-scale randomized control experiment in which more than one thousand children attending grades 6-10 across 15 different schools and 5 school districts in California were randomly given computers to use at home. Children in the treatment group are more likely to report having a social networking site, but also report spending more time communicating with their friends and interacting with their friends in person. There is no evidence that computer ownership displaces participation in after-school activities such as sports teams or clubs or reduces school participation and engagement. |
| JEL: | I20 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22907&r=ure |
| By: | Dorner, Matthias; Harhoff, Dietmar; Hinz, Tina; Hoisl, Karin; Bender, Stefan |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of social ties on the migration of inventors from East to West Germany, using the fall of the Iron Curtain and German reunification as a natural experiment. We identify East German inventors via their patenting track records prior to 1990 and their social security records in the German labor market after reunification. Modeling inventor migration to West German regions after 1990, we find that Western regions with stronger historically determined social ties across the former East-West border attracted more inventors after the fall of the Iron Curtain than regions without such ties. However, mobility decisions made by inventors with outstanding patenting track records (star inventors) were not impacted by social ties. We conclude that social ties support labor market access for migrant inventors and determine regional choices while dependence on these ties is substantially reduced for star performers. |
| JEL: | J60 O30 P20 R23 |
| Date: | 2016–12–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201641&r=ure |
| By: | Luca Savorelli (School of Economics and Finance, University of St Andrews); Jacob Seifert (University of Manchester) |
| Abstract: | We consider a spatial duopoly with non-monotonic network effects and extend the literature by endogenizing firms' location decisions. We show that the existence of equilibrium is ruled out due to displacement incentives at the location stage whenever network effects are sufficiently strong. Furthermore, unlike in exogenous location models, neither vertical product differentiation nor a monopoly outcome can arise endogenously in equilibrium. Relative to monotonic network effect models, our framework provides an additional rationale for a duopolistic market structure to be welfare-preferred to monopoly: for large population sizes, splitting demand between two firms can reduce the disutility from crowding. |
| Keywords: | product differentiation, network effects, welfare. |
| JEL: | L14 D62 |
| Date: | 2016–12–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:san:wpecon:1615&r=ure |
| By: | Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra (Banco de la República de Colombia); Lucas Wilfried Hahn-De-Castro (Banco de la República de Colombia); Dalma Sofía Ariza-Hernández (Departamento Nacional de Planeación); Cristian Oswaldo Carmona-Sanchez (Departamento Nacional de Planeación) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the local efficiency of the public provision of education in Colombia between 2007 and 2014. The empirical analysis relies on a multiproduct function that assesses public performance considering two types of education products: quality and enrolment. Results for Colombian municipalities show efficiencies that vary between 10% and 90%, suggesting that better results in quality and enrolment in public education could be accomplished using the same resources. Sources of inefficiency are explored, such as institutional environment and fiscal autonomy. Differing regional patterns are observed for the cases of education quality and enrolment. Classification JEL: C23, D24, H75, I20 |
| Keywords: | Education, Technical Efficiency, Multiproduct Function, Colombia |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:979&r=ure |
| By: | Cooper, Daniel H. (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston); Luengo-Prado, Maria Jose (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston); Olivei, Giovanni P. (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the link between monetary policy and house-price appreciation by exploiting the fact that monetary policy is set at the national level, but has different effects on state-level activity in the United States. This differential impact of monetary policy provides an exogenous source of variation that can be used to assess the effect of monetary policy on state-level housing prices. Policy accommodation equivalent to 100 basis points on an equilibrium real federal funds rate basis raises housing prices by about 2.5 percent over the next two years. However, the estimated effect increases to 6.6 percent during the early 2000s housing boom. |
| JEL: | E43 E44 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2016–11–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:16-18&r=ure |
| By: | Widgrén, Joona |
| Abstract: | This report examines whether Google search queries can be used to predict the present and the near future house prices in Finland. Compared to a simple benchmark model, Google searches improve the prediction of the present house price index by 7.5 % measured by mean absolute error. In addition, search queries improve the forecast of near future house prices. Predicting the present and near future house prices is relevant information to many agents, such as realtors and political decision makers. |
| Keywords: | Google Trends, Internet, nowcasting, forecasting, housing market, time series |
| JEL: | C1 C22 C43 C53 C82 E27 |
| Date: | 2016–12–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:report:63&r=ure |
| By: | Bernhard Dachs (Austrian Institute of Technology, Vienna); Martin Hud (ZEW Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim); Christian Köhler (ZEW Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim); Bettina Peters (ZEW, Mannheim, and CREA, University of Luxembourg) |
| Abstract: | The shift of employment from lower to higher productive firms is an important driver for structural change and industry dynamics. We investigate this reallocation in terms of employment gains and losses from innovation. New employment created by product innovation may be offset by employment losses in related products, known as ‘cannibalisation’ or ‘business stealing’ effects in the literature, by employment losses from process and organisational innovation and by general productivity increases. The paper investigates this effect empirically with a large dataset from the European Community Innovation Survey (CIS). We find that employment gains and losses increase with technology intensity of the sector. High-technology manufacturing shows the strongest employment gains and losses from innovation, followed by knowledge-intensive services, low- technology manufacturing and less knowledge-intensive services. The net contribution of innovation to employment growth is mostly positive, an exception being manufacturing industries in recession periods. |
| Keywords: | Innovation, employment, reallocation, technology intensity, compensation effect, displacement effect, cannibalisation effect. |
| JEL: | O33 J23 C26 D2 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luc:wpaper:16-26&r=ure |
| By: | Yi Long; Chris Nyland; Russell Smyth |
| Abstract: | We examine how fiscal decentralisation and progress towards the development of a knowledge-intensive economy has impacted on teachers’ wages in China, utilising a panel dataset of 31 provincial administrations from 2001 to 2013. We find that fiscal decentralisation has a negative impact on teachers’ wages and this effect is further enhanced by a deepening of the knowledge intensity of the economy, while knowledge economy itself has no significant impact on teachers’ wages. The findings suggest that incentives being offered to local administrators need to be revisited if the national government is convinced of the need to increase teacher quality in ways suited to the knowledge economy China wishes to construct. |
| Keywords: | fiscal decentralisation, knowledge economy, teachers, wages, human capital, China |
| JEL: | H73 J31 J45 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2016-13&r=ure |
| By: | Mark J. Holmes (Department of Economics, Waikato University, New Zealand); Jesús Otero (Facultad de Economía, Universidad del Rosario, Colombia); Theodore Panagiotidis (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, Greece; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the long-run convergence of house prices across the London boroughs based on a pairwise unit root probabilistic testing procedure. In sharp contrast to the earlier literature, we employ a dataset that distinguishes between four different types of property in each borough. Using a quarterly dataset that spans from 1995 to 2014, we find evidence in favour of long-run convergence thereby suggesting that the great majority of London borough house prices are driven by a single common stochastic trend. In a further contribution, we offer new insights through analysing the determinants of long-run convergence, by considering the role of geographic proximity, type of accommodation, and amenities (quality of life). |
| Keywords: | pair-wise, house prices, cointegration, convergence |
| JEL: | C2 C3 R1 R2 R3 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rim:rimwps:16-30&r=ure |
| By: | Matthew O. Jackson; Brian Rogers; Yves Zenou |
| Abstract: | We survey the literature on the economic consequences of the structure of social networks. We develop a taxonomy of ‘macro’ and ‘micro’ characteristics of social inter-action networks and discuss both the theoretical and empirical findings concerning the role of those characteristics in determining learning, diffusion, decisions, and resulting behaviors. We also discuss the challenges of accounting for the endogeneity of networks in assessing the relationship between the patterns of interactions and behaviors. |
| Keywords: | Social networks, social economics, homophily, diffusion, social learning, contagion, centrality measures, endogeneity, network formation. |
| JEL: | D85 C72 L14 Z13 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2016-45&r=ure |
| By: | Federica Sottrici |
| Abstract: | The paper focuses on the regional economic resilience and, in particular, on its adaptive interpretation, which defines it as the property of a territorial system to react and to adapt to endogenous and exogenous disturbances, in order to achieve a new balance that makes it more prepared to deal with future changes in context. Empirically the paper aims to explore and classify the determinants of resilience in an innovative way and to build resilience indices of micro-territories during the period of the economic crisis, in order to ascertain the existence of differences between the resilience municipalities in Lombardy and, therefore, confirm the importance of resilience even in micro contexts. To evaluate the role played by the adaptive capacity in influencing regional resilience,”Indicators of Adaptation” were built, to verify the importance exercised by the flexibility and adaptability of the territories to determine their resilience. The analysis at the micro-regional level showed that Lombardy and its municipalities have exhibited resilience items during the economic crisis and that this property is crucial to enhance the economic development of micro-territories. Therefore, governments and policymakers should pay attention to the regional resilience, in order to undertake new paths of growth and renewal. |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:liu:liucec:303&r=ure |
| By: | Janet Hunter; Kota Ogasawara |
| Abstract: | This paper tests the operation of markets in the wake of a sudden exogenous shock in prewar Japan, the Great Kantō Earthquake of 1923. Using a unique monthly wholesale price dataset of provincial cities, we found that the earthquake had a positive impact on the price of rice and timber in the sample cities. Our results also indicate that the wholesale price of rice in cities in the northeast of Japan, which were more closely integrated with the affected region, experienced more significant price rises than those in western Japan. Nevertheless, although further research using retail as opposed to wholesale prices of goods is needed, these preliminary findings suggest that the diffusion of price instability outwards from the affected region was on a lesser scale than might have been expected. |
| Keywords: | Great Kantō Earthquake; Natural disaster; Price shocks; |
| JEL: | O53 N0 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:68618&r=ure |
| By: | Xiaoyu Chen; Xiaohao Ji |
| Abstract: | This is an empirical study on the effect of house price on stock-market participation and its depths based on unique China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) data in 2011 and 2013 including 36213 sample households. We mainly found that, with an increase of one thousand RMB per square meter in macro house price, the probability to participate in the stock market will increase by 5.4% before controlling for wealth effect and 2.84% afterwards, indicating the existence of wealth effect. The participation depths of the stock-total asset ratio is expected to decrease by 0.23% and absolute stock asset is observed to decrease by 5.8 thousand RMB in response to one thousand RMB increase of per square meter house price. The effect of house price on participation decision is also related to housing area, and the negative effect of house price on stock market participation depths gets more intense with the increase of the stock-total asset ratio. |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2016-056&r=ure |
| By: | Omokolade Akinsomi (School of Construction Economics and Management, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa); Yener Coskun (Capital Markets Board of Turkey, Eskisehir Yolu, Ankara, Turkey); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa.); Chi Keung Marco Lau (Newcastle Business School, Northumbria University, Newcastle, UK) |
| Abstract: | Employing static and dynamic models that capture herding under different market regimes, we provide novel evidence on the herding behaviour of UK-listed Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Our sample is extensive and covers the period from 30/6/2004 to 5/4/2016. Estimates of herding behaviour are derived using a Markov regime-switching model. The analysis suggests the existence of three market regimes (low, high and extreme or crash volatility) with transition ordered as ‘low, high and crash volatility’. Although static herding model rejects the existence of herding in REITs markets, estimates of the regimes switching model reveal substantial evidence of herding behaviours under the low volatility regime. Most interestingly we observe a shift from anti-herding behaviour during high volatility regimes to herding behaviour under low volatility regime, with this caused by the UK VIX. |
| Keywords: | Herd behavior, UK REITs;, Markov-switching, Time-varying probabilities |
| JEL: | C32 G11 G15 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201688&r=ure |
| By: | Paul S. Calem; Ricardo Correa; Seung Jung Lee |
| Abstract: | We analyze how two types of recently used prudential policies affected the supply of credit in the United States. First, we test whether the U.S. bank stress tests had any impact on the supply of mortgage credit. We find that the first Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) stress test in 2011 had a negative effect on the share of jumbo mortgage originations and approval rates at stress-tested banks—banks with worse capital positions were impacted more negatively. Second, we analyze the impact of the 2013 Supervisory Guidance on Leveraged Lending and subsequent 2014 FAQ notice, which clarified expectations on the Guidance. We find that the share of speculative-grade term-loan originations decreased notably at regulated banks after the FAQ notice. |
| Keywords: | Bank stress tests ; CCAR ; Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data ; Jumbo mortgages ; Leveraged lending ; Macroprudential policy ; Shared National Credit (SNC) data ; Interagency Guidance on Leveraged Lending ; Syndicated loan market |
| JEL: | G21 G23 G28 |
| Date: | 2016–12–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1186&r=ure |
| By: | Haizheng Li; Junzi He; Qinyi Liu; Barbara M. Fraumeni; Xiang Zheng |
| Abstract: | Given the challenges in quantifying the role of human capital on economic development, measuring human capital itself becomes an important issue. It is desirable to have a comprehensive human capital measure that goes beyond the traditional measures based on education attainment, yet is relatively simple to obtain. In this study, we apply the Jorgenson-Fraumeni human capital measurement framework and modify it to estimate provincial level human capital in China. We produce a provincial level panel dataset from 1985 to 2014 that is ready to use, with various J-F based and traditional human capital measures. We then combine the provinces into four different regions that are at different stages of economic development and discuss the regional pattern and trend of human capital, as well as their correlation with other economic indicators such as GDP and physical capital. Moreover, we conduct a Divisia decomposition analysis to investigate the contribution of different factors, such as education, urbanization, population aging and gender composition, to the quantity and quality growth of human capital in each region. |
| JEL: | I25 O15 O18 O53 R12 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22906&r=ure |
| By: | Kahn, Charles M. (University of Illinois); Liñares-Zegarra, José Manuel (University of Essex); Stavins, Joanna (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
| Abstract: | Even though security of payments has long been identified as an important aspect of the consumer payment experience, recent literature fails to appropriately assess the extent of social spillovers among payment users. We test for the existence and importance of such spillovers by analyzing whether social influence affects consumers’ perceptions of the security of payment instruments. Based on a 2008−2014 annual panel data survey of consumers, we find strong evidence of social spillovers in payment markets: others’ perceptions of security of payment instruments exert a positive influence on one’s own payment security perceptions. The significant and robust results imply that a consumer’s assessments of security converge to his peers’ average assessment: a 10 percent change in the divergence between one’s own security rating and peers’ average rating will result in a 7 percent change in one’s own rating in the next period. The results are robust to many specifications and do not change when we control for actual fraud or crime data. Our results indicate that spillovers rather than reflection appear to be the cause, although separating the two causes is very difficult (Manski 1993). In particular, the spillovers are stronger for people who experience an exogenous shock to security perception, people who have more social interactions, and younger consumers, who are more likely to be influenced by social media. We also examine the effects of social spillovers on payment behavior (that is, on decisions regarding payment adoption and use). Our results indicate that social spillovers have a rather limited impact on payment behavior, as others’ perceptions seem to affect one’s own payment behavior mainly indirectly through the effect on one’s own perceptions. |
| JEL: | D12 G02 G20 |
| Date: | 2016–09–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedbwp:16-19&r=ure |
| By: | Thomas Breda; Alan Manning |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the British Workplace Employee Relations Survey to investigate the impact of gender and ethnic diversity on workers' level of trust in managers and the extent of identity with the values and objectives of the firm - dimensions of what we might call social capital within the workplace. These are both factors that one might expect to make firms more co-operative and, hence, productive. In contrast to much of the existing literature we pay particular attention to the estimation of causal effects, using an instrumental variable strategy. We find evidence that both women and minorities have higher levels of workplace trust and identity as individuals. But we also find evidence that a higher female share in the plant is associated with higher trust and identity (stronger for trust than identity) and that a higher minority share is associated lower trust and identity (stronger for identity than trust). However, in line with much of the literature, these results are not always significantly different from zero and they are sensitive to specification. |
| Keywords: | trust, identity, diversity, workplace |
| JEL: | M5 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1460&r=ure |
| By: | Jenny Schuetz |
| Abstract: | The rapid growth of firms such as Uber, Airbnb, and Task Rabbit has attracted considerable attention - and controversy - from the media, policymakers and researchers. This note considers the potential for spatial variation in the size and composition of online P2P markets from both the labor market and consumer perspectives. |
| Date: | 2016–12–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2016-12-22-2&r=ure |
| By: | Alessandro Belmonte (IMT School for advanced studies); Roberto Dell'Anno (University of Salerno); Desiree Teobaldelli (University of Urbino) |
| Keywords: | Ethnic diversity, Decentralization, Tax morale, Risk-aversion |
| JEL: | J15 H26 H73 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ial:wpaper:7/2016&r=ure |
| By: | Haskamp, Ulrich |
| Abstract: | During the financial crisis numerous European governments decided to rescue domestic banks with public funds to prevent a collapse of the banking system. To internalize the public costs, bank levies have been introduced in many countries. This paper analyzes the German bank levy which was implemented from 2011 till 2014 and its effect on lending rates of regional banks. We examine not only if banks shift the cost of the levy to their customers' lending rates, but also whether there are spillovers to their local competitors. The German savings and cooperative banks are a perfect setting to study such effects as they only operate within well-defined regions, allowing us to identify their local competitors. Additionally, only some of them are subject to the levy due to a tax allowance. Further, with a market share of 42.8% in total, they are relevant. Firstly, we find that a bank that has to pay the bank levy raises its lending rate by about 0.14 percentage points. Secondly, we examine whether the increased lending rates of paying banks spill over to their local competitors. We find this indirect effect to be about one third of the size. Given an average lending rate of 4.96%, these effects are economically significant. Lastly, adverse effects of the levy on paying banks' loan supply growth are absorbed by their competitors to a certain extent. |
| Keywords: | bank regulation,bank levy,regional spillover,lending rates |
| JEL: | E43 G21 G28 R10 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:664&r=ure |
| By: | Ralph Hippe (European Commission - JRC); Luisa De Sousa Lobo Borges de Araujo (European Commission - JRC); Patricia Dinis Mota da Costa (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This technical brief provides a literature review on equity in education in Europe. It updates a report produced for the European Commission in 2006 and provides insights into the research and policies that have been undertaken during the last decade. Its focus is on early childhood and care, primary and secondary education and on the different aspects related to equity in education that have surfaced during the last years. Therefore, this brief includes a broader set of topics concerning equity in education, such as regional asymmetries, gender inequality and immigrants’ integration. In this brief, equity “is viewed as the extent to which individuals can take advantage of education and training, in terms of opportunities, access, treatment and outcomes†(European Commission 2006, p. 2). Achieving equity in education is a particularly important policy priority, as the evolution, causes and consequences of social, educational and economic inequalities have been a hotly debated and controversial issue given the recent economic crisis in Europe. For these reasons, this brief provides an overview of recent evidence-based research and policy measures, which can inform future policy initiatives in Europe aimed at increasing equity in early childhood, primary and secondary education. In sum, the evidence reviewed indicates that, taking a life-cycle approach to education, equity has to be achieved at the earliest education stages. In other words, the provision of equitable and quality early childhood education and care needs to be a priority in any equity considerations. Furthermore, the quality of teachers plays a prominent role in achieving high and equitable educational results. The results for achieving equity through school choice depend heavily on its specific contextual implementation. Current indicators suggest that there are large differences in educational equity between and within EU Member States. Similarly, distinguishing among gender and immigrants’ status reveals significant gaps among various subpopulations, and these specific gaps have to be considered in future policies. The brief’s concluding message is that ‘one size fits all’ policies do not appropriately address the needs of diverse learners in different countries. Policies have to be tailored to specific contexts and populations. Just importing policies from other countries without further analysis may not work – the particular local contexts and stakeholders have always to be taken into account. Still, giving more priority to early childhood education and care and improving teacher quality in schools are certainly initiatives that contribute to achieving higher equity levels. However, more research and data are a necessary requirement to enhance future research-based policy actions. |
| Keywords: | equity, education, Europe, |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc104595&r=ure |
| By: | James PL Tan |
| Abstract: | Measures of wealth and production have been found to scale superlinearly with the population of a city. Therefore, it makes economic sense for humans to congregate together in dense settlements. A recent model of population dynamics showed that population growth can become superexponential due to the superlinear scaling of production with population in a city. Here, we generalize this population dynamics model and demonstrate the existence of multiple stable equilibrium points, showing how population growth can be stymied by a poor economic environment. This occurs when the goods and services produced by the city become less profitable due to a lack of diversification in the city's economy. Then, relying on critical slowing down signals related to the stability of an equilibrium point, we present an algorithm for engineering regime shifts such that a city at a stable equilibrium point may continue to grow again. The generality of the model and the algorithm used here implies that the model and algorithm need not be restricted to urban systems; they are easily applicable to other types of systems where the assumptions used are valid. |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1612.08338&r=ure |
| By: | Dohse, Dirk; Lim, Cheng Yee |
| Abstract: | The paper investigates the determinants of Internet adoption in poor countries, focusing on the role of macro-geographic location (neighborhood). It is argued that neighboring countries are interconnected by various kinds of spillovers, including knowledge spillovers as well as spillovers of norms and attitudes that affect individual adoption behavior. The empirical findings support the view that Internet adoption is affected by adoption rates in neighboring countries, even when controlling for a wide range of covariates. Addressing potential endogeneity concerns using an instrumental variables approach moreover suggests these relationships to be causal. The findings imply that international policies to support Internet adoption in poor countries might be more effective if they target groups of neighboring countries rather than single countries in order to better exploit spillovers between neighboring countries. |
| Keywords: | internet adoption,poor countries,macro-geographic location,spillovers |
| JEL: | O30 L96 R10 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:2067&r=ure |
| By: | Peter Birch Sørensen (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen); U. Michael Bergman (Department of Economics, University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | The paper presents a general method for estimating a country?s level of fundamental house prices and its interaction with actual house prices. We set up a uni?ed empirical model which can be used to analyze the time-series behavior of the fundamental house price and to test various hypotheses regarding its relation to the actual house price. To illustrate how the method works, we apply it to data for Denmark and Sweden. We fi?nd a tendency for actual house prices to converge on fundamental prices, albeit rather slowly. |
| Date: | 2016–12–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kud:epruwp:1604&r=ure |
| By: | Hasan Tuluy (Centennial Group International) |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:emf:glpapr:2016africaintegration&r=ure |
| By: | Simon Lange; Marten von Werder |
| Abstract: | Proponents of tracking argue that the creation of more homogeneous classes increases effciency while opponents point out that tracking aggravates initial differences between students. We estimate the effects on the intergenerational transmission of education of a reform that delayed tracking by two years in one of Germany's federal states. While the reform had no effect on educational outcomes on average, it increased educational attainment among individuals with uneducated parents and decreased attainment among individuals with educated parents. The effect is driven entirely by changes in the gradient for males and to a large extent by an effect on the likelihood to complete the academic secondary track. |
| Keywords: | tracking; educational institutions; educational inequality; equality of opportunity; intergenerational mobility |
| JEL: | I21 I24 I28 J62 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp880&r=ure |
| By: | Shuddhasattwa Rafiq; Ingrid Nielsen; Russell Smyth |
| Abstract: | We examine the effect of inter-provincial migration on air and water pollution for a panel of Chinese provinces over the period 2000-2013. To do so, we employ linear and non-linear panel data models in a Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) framework. Our findings from both the linear and non-linear models suggest that inter-provincial migration has contributed to air and water pollution. Results from the second-generation linear panel data models suggest that for every additional 10,000 inter-provincial migrants, chemical oxygen demand (COD) increases 0.33-0.58 per cent and sulphur dioxide (SO2) increases 0.15-0.33 per cent. Our results from the non-linear threshold panel model are that for every additional 10,000 inter-provincial migrants, COD increases 0.2-0.5 per cent and SO2 increases 0.10-0.20 per cent. These estimates mean that over the period 2000-2013 average interprovincial migration was responsible for 7-12.4 per cent of wastewater discharge and 3.2-7 per cent of SO2 emissions in China based on the second-generation linear panel data models and 4.3-10.7 per cent of wastewater discharge and 2.1-4.3 per cent of SO2 emissions based on the non-linear threshold panel model. |
| Keywords: | China, internal migration, air pollution, water pollution. |
| JEL: | J10 Q20 Q25 R11 R23 |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2016-27&r=ure |
| By: | MORI, Takahito |
| Abstract: | In the urban history of Germany, it was the theory of Dieter Schott, the ‘networking of the city’, that turned historians' attention to the socioeconomic changes caused due to the introduction of electricity into a city. However, the paradigm shift in urban energy brought by electricity was not adequately elucidated as most studies were limited to the period before WWI, when electric lights were still a luxury and less than 10% of households used them. In this context, this paper examines the socioeconomic dynamism of urban electrification— fixation of the electricity as necessary energy in the urban life —using Frankfurt am Main as a case study. |
| Keywords: | Paradigm shift in the electricity consumption, Change of the tariff system, Innovation of illumination techniques, Experiment of the completely electrified life, Strategy of the municipal electric service |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:econdp:2016-12&r=ure |
| By: | Sultan Orazbayev (University College London) |
| Abstract: | The literature on diffusion of knowledge has shown positive influence of physical and cultural proximity, common Language and contiguity on the speed and magnitude of international knowledge flows. Knowledge diffusion is also facilitated by co-location, even temporary one, which helps researchers form personal ties and exchange tacit information through face-to-face contact. However, the ability of researchers to disseminate the results of their work, especially recent or on-going research, through temporary co-location (including international conferences, workshops and seminars) will be affected by the administrative barriers to mobility (‘paper walls’), for example travel visas. This paper uses a gravity-style empirical model to examine the link between the administrative barriers to mobility of the skilled work- ers (and students) and the magnitude/direction of international knowledge flows between 45 countries from 1990 to 2014. Additional calculations use information on travel visa requirements between 134 countries in year 2004. The results suggest that higher administrative barriers to mobility between countries are associated with reduced bilateral knowledge flows, especially of recent knowledge, and this negative effect can persist for about 9 years. The persistent effect of ‘paper walls’ is asymmetric and a country’s ability to import knowledge is affected more by the administrative barriers of the knowledge-exporting country, suggesting that co-location plays an important role for successful transfer of knowledge. |
| Keywords: | visa; diffusion of knowledge; academic mobility; skilled workers; immigration policy |
| JEL: | F10 F29 O33 R10 |
| Date: | 2016–12–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csl:devewp:410&r=ure |
| By: | Adriana Ruiz (Departament d'Economia Aplicada, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona); Anna Matas (Departament d'Economia Aplicada, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona); Josep Lluís Raymond (Departament d'Economia Aplicada, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the relationship between road infrastructure improvements and investment in capital assets. Using aggregate data at a provincial level for 1977-2008, an equation for machinery and equipment investment is estimated applying Panel Corrected Standard Errors. The results indicate that the long-term elasticities of investment in relation to market potential, GDP and average years of schooling are 0.90, 0.75 and 0.80, respectively. Additionally, the long run impact of a road infrastructure investment policy is assessed. We find that the elasticities of investment in machinery and equipment, capital stock and GDP in relation to travel time are 1.18, 0.33 and 0.11, respectively |
| Keywords: | Road infraestructure, Regional investment, Market potential, Travel time |
| JEL: | R4 R11 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xrp:wpaper:xreap2016-09&r=ure |
| By: | Yilin Hou (Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244); Qing Miao (Center for Science, Technology, and Environmental Policy Studies, School of Public Affairs, Arizona State University); Michael Abrigo (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii) |
| Abstract: | This paper employs panel vector autoregression to examine the dynamic fiscal response to disaster shocks. With 50-state, 1970-2013 panel data of state government finance and disaster damage, we estimate disaster impacts on revenue, expenditure, debt issuance, and intergovernmental transfers. We find that following a disaster, states increase program expenditure, but receive more federal transfers. Disasters have limited impact on total tax revenues but amplify fluctuations in sales, income, and property tax revenues. Our findings suggest that disaster-induced additional spending is largely financed through federal transfers, which include not only disaster relief funds but also non-disaster-related public welfare aids. |
| Keywords: | Natural Disaster, Panel Vector Autoregression, Intergovernmental Transfer |
| JEL: | Q54 H7 H30 H12 H53 |
| Date: | 2016–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:max:cprwps:199&r=ure |