|
on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Vanessa Gapriotti Nadalin |
| Abstract: | São Paulo’s metropolitan area is one of the largest urban spaces in the world. As it happens with any other large metropolitan area, understanding its structure, problems and dynamics is not a simple task. The structure of cities has been studied by urban economics ever since von Thünen’s land use theory was adapted to urban contexts. Research on property and housing markets have followed a related but different approach. On the one hand, housing markets have been modeled with emphasis on the specific features of properties such as durability, heterogeneity, and construction costs. On the other hand, research on real estate finance has been developing and applying a variety of valuation methods, focusing on the supply and demand adjusting mechanisms and considering properties as assets. These three areas of investigation have not always been connected in a systematic manner. Yet, we argue that there is a case for integrating them due to their intrinsic spatial dimension. In the past decades, when the São Paulo became the national manufacturing centre, it has experienced great population growth. Many problems have emerged, especially those connected with housing such as illegal slums, flophouses, informal settlements, squatting and homelessness. This significant housing deficit indicates the need to search for alternatives in the provision of good quality housing. At the same time, there is a general spatial pattern of residential vacancy: high vacancies in central areas and low vacancies in suburbs. The city centre location advantages and urban amenities are a misuse of scarce resources. This paper attempts to contribute to this debate through an empirical analysis of the determinants of residential vacancy rates in São Paulo’s metropolitan area. We use a panel of census tract level data for the years 2000 and 2010 combining standard spatial econometric methods with hedonic modelling. Our results suggest that there are two main groups of determinants: one related to local characteristics of housing markets and another constituted by individual building features. We also estimate the city historical centre determinants separately from those of the suburbs, finding consistent differences. |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0201&r=ure |
| By: | Mark van Duijn (VU University Amsterdam, University of Groningen, and Amsterdam School of Real Estate, the Netherlands); Jan Rouwendal (VU University Amsterdam, and Amsterdam School of Real Estate, the Netherlands) |
| Abstract: | Urban heritage is often concentrated in conservation areas with a protected status. Previous research argues that urban heritage attracts especially higher educated households who are likely to have higher incomes. The presence of these households may have a further impact on the attractiveness of the neighborhoods concerned, for instance through endogenous amenities like better shops or schools. If this is the case for high income households, conservation areas will have a further impact on the area’s attractiveness through the demographic composition of the residential area. In this paper we investigate the interaction between the preference for urban heritage – as an exogenous amenity – and the preference for areas with a high concentration of high income households – as an endogenous amenity. We develop a logit-based sorting model in which different incom e groups interact and estimate it for the Amsterdam metropolitan area. Results show that all employed households highly value conservation areas and prefer to live in areas with a high concentration of high income households. We investigate the impact of urban heritage on house prices and welfare through counterfactual simulations. The disappearance of urban heritage would result in a substantially more suburbanized location pattern of the high income households in the Amsterdam metropolitan area, and to lower welfare for all income groups. |
| Keywords: | Location choice; urban heritage; sorting models; discrete choice; heterogeneous household preferences; welfare analysis |
| JEL: | R2 J1 Z1 |
| Date: | 2015–03–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20150030&r=ure |
| By: | Rob Pitingolo (The Urban Institute); Stephen L. Ross (University of Connecticut) |
| Abstract: | In 2012, the Department of Housing and Urban Development launched the fourth major nationwide housing discrimination study with the goal of measuring housing discrimination in rental and owner-occupied housing for blacks, Hispanics and Asians. The substantial declines in discrimination observed between 1989 and 2000 lead to a considerable debate about whether paired testing studies of the type conducted in 2000 understate the extent of housing discrimination. Using the 2012 study and earlier evidence, this paper considers three of the significant concerns about paired testing studies of housing discrimination: 1. exclusion of minorities during the process of setting up appointments, 2. the net measure of adverse treatment understating discrimination because some housing units are systematically not shown to white testers, and 3. the use of metropolitan wide advertisements for conducting tests may systematically miss neighborhoods where discrimination is higher. The 2012 study directly addresses the first concern finding at most very low levels of discrimination in obtaining an appointment over the phone. The evidence for the second concern is mixed. The levels of equal treatment in 2012 in terms of basic access were quite high leaving little room for the systematic exclusion of white under some circumstances, while steering persisted against both blacks and Asians in owner-occupied housing. Nonetheless, estimates of steering were modest, and the gross levels of adverse treatment are far too large to be explained by the steering observed in 2012. In order to address the third concern, this paper conducts a new empirical analysis in which we measure the availability of rental and owner-occupied housing in each broad neighborhood represented in the 2012 Housing Discrimination Study, and reweight the tests to represent the spatial availability of housing across each metropolitan site rather than the distribution of advertisements. While the reweighting substantially changed the weights on individual tests, the average attributes of the neighborhoods represented by those tests experienced only modest changes from reweighting, and the estimated measures of adverse treatment were unchanged. |
| Keywords: | Housing Discrimination, Paired Tests, Reweighting, Advertisement Sample, Telephone Inquiry, New Measure, Gross Measure, Triad Tests |
| JEL: | J15 K42 L85 R31 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uct:uconnp:2015-05&r=ure |
| By: | Pierre-Philippe Combes (Aix-Marseille University (Aix-Marseille School of Economics), CNRS & EHESS, 2, Rue de la Charité,13002 Marseille, France; Sciences Po, Department of Economics, 28, Rue des Saints-Pères, 75007 Paris, France. Also affiliated to the CEPR.); Sylvie Démurger (Université de Lyon, Lyon, F-69007, France ; CNRS, GATE Lyon St Etienne,F-69130 Ecully, France); Shi Li (School of Business, Beijing Normal University, China; IZA, Bonn, Germany) |
| Abstract: | We analyse the impact of internal migration in China on natives’ labour market outcomes. We find evidence of a large positive correlation of the city share of migrants with natives’ wages. Using different sets of control variables and instruments suggests that the effect is causal. The large total migrant impact (+10% when one moves from the first to the third quartile of the migrant variable distribution) arises from gains due to complementarity with natives in the production function (+6.4%), and from gains due to agglomeration economies (+3.3%). Finally, we find some evidence of a stronger effect for skilled natives than for unskilled, as expected from theory. Overall, our findings support large nominal wage gains that can be expected from further migration and urbanisation in China. |
| Keywords: | Migration, urban development, agglomeration economies, wage disparities, China |
| JEL: | O18 J61 R23 J31 O53 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:1503&r=ure |
| By: | Jurgita Bruneckiene (Kaunas University of Technology); Jolita Sinkiene (Kaunas University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | This article analyzes the issues of economic competitiveness evaluation of cross-border cities under the context of urban shrinkage. Currently the "urban shrinkage" issue is on the top of the political agenda in Europe. Under the globalization conditions, especially cities, which suffer from urban shrinkage, have to find new and modern means and attitudes for increasing urban competitiveness. The absence of methodological tools for the evaluation of economic competitiveness of the cities of cross-border regions is becoming one of the obstacles that impede the real identification of the current situation and predicting perspectives of the cross-border urban development and competitiveness. The purpose of the article – to identify the challenges and factors for improvement of economic competitiveness of the cross-border cities under the context of urban shrinkage and to develop methodological guidelines for the evaluation of cross-border regional economic competitiveness based on the findings of analysis performed on Lithuanian-Polish cross-border cities. The article distinguishes basic characteristics of the shrinking cities and related problems that have a direct impact on the improvement of economic competitiveness of the city. The economic competitiveness evaluation methodology on the cross-border cities is developed and its practical applicability is verified, based on the sample of Lithuanian-Polish cities (Alytus, Marijampole (Lithuania) and Elk, Bialystok (Poland). Panevezys and Siauliai are additionally added to the analysis as industrial cities located near Lithuania - Latvia border). Strategic recommendations on improving the economic competitiveness of Lithuanian-Polish cross-border cities are introduced in the context of urban shrinkage. |
| Keywords: | city, cross-border region, economic competitiveness of cities, shrinking cities |
| JEL: | O11 O18 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2015:no100&r=ure |
| By: | Jack Britton; Carol Propper |
| Abstract: | Teacher wages are commonly set in a manner that results in flat wages across heterogeneous labor markets. Consequently teacher wages will be relatively worse in areas where local labor market wages are high. The implication is that teacher output will be lower in high outside wage areas. This paper exploits the centralized wage regulation of teachers in England to examine the effect of wages on school performance. It uses data on over 3000 schools containing around 200,000 teachers who educate around half a million children per year. We find that teachers respond to pay and schools add less value to their pupils where the regulation bites harder. Our calculations suggest that the removal of regulation would have positive social benefits. |
| Keywords: | Teacher wages, Centralised Pay Regulation, School performance, School Value Added |
| JEL: | I2 J3 J4 |
| Date: | 2014–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:cmpowp:14/318&r=ure |
| By: | UNAYAMA Takashi |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to explain why housing investment in Japan stagnated in the 2000s. Housing investment consists of two parts: replacement and a net increase of housing stock, which can be further decomposed into changes in the number of households and the housing utilization rate. Using the Housing and Land Survey, it is shown that all of the following factors caused the decrease in housing investment: house replacement decreased due to an increasing share of non-wooden houses and collective housing; the number of households is approaching its ceiling as the share of nuclear and single-person households is saturating; and the housing utilization rate indicates the bottom, reflecting the housing market situation. As a corollary, we conclude that the effect of the consumption tax rate increase in 1997 on housing investment is limited. |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rdpsjp:15013&r=ure |
| By: | Riccardo Crescenzi; Luisa Gagliardi |
| Abstract: | This paper looks at the link between inter-regional mobility, innovation and firms' behavioural heterogeneity in their reliance on localised external sources of knowledge. By linking patent data (capturing inventors' inter-regional mobility) with firm-level data (providing information on firms' innovation inputs and behaviour) a robust identification strategy makes it possible to shed new light on the geographical mobility-innovation nexus. The analysis of English firms suggests that firm-level heterogeneity - largely overlooked in previous studies - is the key to explain the innovation impact of inter-regional mobility over and above learning-by-hiring mechanisms. A causal link between inflows of new inventors into the local labour market and innovation emerges only for firms that make the use of external knowledge sources an integral part of their innovation strategies. |
| Keywords: | Innovation, Labour Mobility, Inter-regional Migration, Spillovers |
| JEL: | O31 O15 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:sercdp:0174&r=ure |
| By: | Piopiunik, Marc; Ruhose, Jens |
| Abstract: | After the collapse of the Soviet Union, more than 3 million people with German ancestors immigrated to Germany under a special law granting immediate citizenship. Exploiting the exogenous allocation of ethnic German immigrants by German authorities across regions upon arrival, we find that immigration significantly increases crime. The crime impact of immigration depends strongly on local labor market conditions, with strong impacts in regions with high unemployment. Similarly, we find substantially stronger effects in regions with high preexisting crime levels or large shares of foreigners. |
| Keywords: | Immigration; crime; allocation policy |
| JEL: | F22 J15 K42 R10 |
| Date: | 2015–03–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lmu:muenec:24468&r=ure |
| By: | Fan Fei; James R. Hines Jr.; Jill R. Horwitz |
| Abstract: | Nonprofit charitable organizations are exempt from most taxes, including local property taxes, but U.S. cities and towns increasingly request that nonprofits make payments in lieu of taxes (known as PILOTs). Strictly speaking, PILOTs are voluntary, though nonprofits may feel pressure to make them, particularly in high-tax communities. Evidence from Massachusetts indicates that PILOT rates, measured as ratios of PILOTs to the value of local tax-exempt property, are higher in towns with higher property tax rates: a one percent higher property tax rate is associated with a 0.2 percent higher PILOT rate. PILOTs appear to discourage nonprofit activity: a one percent higher PILOT rate is associated with 0.8 percent reduced real property ownership by local nonprofits, 0.2 percent reduced total assets, and 0.2 percent lower revenues of local nonprofits. These patterns are consistent with voluntary PILOTs acting in a manner similar to low-rate, compulsory real estate taxes. |
| JEL: | H25 L31 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21088&r=ure |
| By: | Helen F. Ladd; Charles T. Clotfelter; John B. Holbein |
| Abstract: | A defining characteristic of charter schools is that they introduce a strong market element into public education. In this paper, we examine the evolution of the charter school sector in North Carolina between 1999 and 2012 through the lens of a market model. We examine trends in the mix of students enrolled in charter schools, the racial imbalance of charter schools, the quality of the match between parental preferences in charter schools relative to the quality of match in traditional public schools, and the distribution of test score performance across charter schools relative those in traditional public schools serving similar students over time. Taken together, our findings imply that the charter schools in North Carolina are increasingly serving the interests of relatively able white students in racially imbalanced schools. |
| JEL: | H52 H75 I24 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21078&r=ure |
| By: | Rafael Henrique Moraes Pereira; Vanessa Nadalin; Leonardo Monasterio; Pedro Henrique Melo Albuquerque |
| Abstract: | This study introduces a new measure of urban centrality. It identifies distinct urban structures from different spatial patterns of jobs and resident population. The proposed urban centrality index constitutes an extension of the spatial separation index (MIDELFART-KNARVIK et al., 2000). It is suggested that urban structure should be more accurately analyzed by considering a centrality scale (varying from extreme monocentricity to extreme polycentricity) rather than a binary variable (monocentric or polycentric). The proposed index controls for differences in size and shape of the geographic areas for which data is available, and can be calculated using different variables, such as employment and population densities and trip generation rates. The properties of the index are illustrated in simulated artificial data sets. Simulation results for hypothesized urban forms are compared to other similar measures proposed by previous literature. The index is then applied to the urban structure of four different metropolitan areas: Pittsburgh and Los Angeles in the United States; São Paulo, Brazil; and Paris, France, The index is compared to other traditional spatial agglomeration measures, such as global and local Moran’s I, and density gradient estimations. |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0189&r=ure |
| By: | Agnieszka Ma³kowska (Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Krakowie); Michal Gluszak (Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Krakowie) |
| Abstract: | In the article we discuss importance of the real estate related instruments, used by local government to attract investment and stimulate local economic development. The article discusses economic literature related to public economics at local government level, with the special emphasis put on link between urban and real estate economics and development. In the empirical part of the paper we analyze results of survey conducted at a local government level in Poland (Malopolska). There are two major research objectives: (1) to identify the scope of the real estate economic instruments used by the communes as part of their development policies’ strategies; (2) to examine the coexistence of certain types of instruments as part of the commune development strategies. To find relevant answers both multidimensional scaling and cluster analysis are applied. Additionally, we discuss whether there are evidence of mimicking behavior in local development policies. |
| Keywords: | public economics; real estate economics; policy mimicking; local policy instruments; clustering |
| JEL: | H7 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2015:no77&r=ure |
| By: | Foti, Fletcher |
| Abstract: | UrbanSim(link is external) is a software-based simulation system for supporting planning and analysis of urban development, incorporating the interactions between land use, transportation, the economy, and the environment. It is the result of over 15 years of active research, and has been applied to planning processes of over a dozen regional governments and large cities. Recent improvements to UrbanSim include an accessibility engine to compute walking-scale accessibility metrics over a metropolitan area in less than a second, and the ability to run real estate pro formas on the complete set of parcels in a region to understand real estate development feasibility the way a developer might. The new methodology has also received interest from the travel modeling community, and a consortium of regions has funded a pilot to create an activity-based travel model using the same core framework. Synthicity(link is external) will be releasing UrbanCanvas publicly in spring 2015. UrbanCanvas is a 3D urban design platform that allows the editing of proposed developments which can be used to create scenario inputs to UrbanSim, as well as to view UrbanSim outputs as prototypical buildings. Synthicity hopes that UrbanCanvas can become a transformative technology that allows planners and citizens to weigh in on proposed developments early enough in the process to positively affect social, economic, environmental, and aesthetic outcomes of future population and economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, UrbanSim, Synthicity, UrbanCanvas |
| Date: | 2015–03–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt6mz1h0bj&r=ure |
| By: | Desmet, Klaus; Nagy, David Krisztián; Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between geography and growth. To do so, we first develop a dynamic spatial growth theory with realistic geography. We characterize the model and its balanced growth path and propose a methodology to analyze equilibria with different levels of migration frictions. We bring the model to the data for the whole world economy at a 1º times 1º geographic resolution. We then use the model to quantify the gains from relaxing migration restrictions as well as to describe the evolution of the distribution of economic activity in the different migration scenarios. Our results indicate that fully liberalizing migration would increase welfare more than three-fold and would significantly affect the evolution of particular regions in the world. We then use the model to study the effect of a spatial shock. We focus on the example of a rise in the sea level and find that coastal flooding can have an important impact on welfare by changing the geographic-dynamic path of the world economy. |
| Keywords: | coastal flooding; development; gains from mobility; geography; growth; migration; spatial economics; trade; world economy |
| JEL: | F1 F22 O1 O15 O18 Q54 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10544&r=ure |
| By: | Frame, W. Scott (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta); Gerardi, Kristopher S. (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta); Willen, Paul S. (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston) |
| Abstract: | Stress testing has recently become a critical risk management and capital planning tool for large financial institutions and their supervisors around the world. However, the one prior U.S. experience tying stress test results to capital requirements was a spectacular failure: the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight's (OFHEO) risk-based capital stress test for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. We study a key component of OFHEO's model—30-year fixed-rate mortgage performance—and find two key problems. First, OFHEO had left the model specification and associated parameters static for the entire time the rule was in force. Second, the house price stress scenario was insufficiently dire. We show how each problem resulted in a significant underprediction of mortgage credit losses and associated capital needs at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac during the housing bust. |
| Keywords: | Bank supervision; stress test; model risk; residential mortgages; government-sponsored enterprises |
| JEL: | G21 G23 G28 |
| Date: | 2015–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedawp:2015-03&r=ure |
| By: | Riccardo Crescenzi; Alexander Jaax |
| Abstract: | The debate on Russia’s innovation performance has paid little attention to the role of geography. This paper addresses this gap by applying an ‘augmented’ regional knowledge function approach to examine the territorial dynamics of innovation in Russia. The empirical results suggest that regional R&D investments are strong predictors of local innovative performance. However, R&D activities are inadequately connected to regional human capital resources. The activities of foreign firms play a fundamental role as ‘global knowledge pipelines’. Different territorial dynamics of innovation are observed in the European and the Asian part of Russia, with regions to the East of the Urals less likely to benefit from interregional knowledge spillovers. The historical legacy from the Soviet era still emerges as a strong predictor of current innovative performance, shedding light on the importance of long-term path dependency in the Russian geography of innovation. |
| Keywords: | Innovation, R&D, geography, regions, Russia |
| JEL: | R11 R12 O32 O33 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:1509&r=ure |
| By: | Arthur (Yan) Huang; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | Based on in-vehicle GPS travel data in the Minneapolis - St. Paul Metropolitan Area, this research investigates how land use, road network structure, and route fa- miliarity influence home-based single-destination choice. We propose a new choice set formation approach which combines survival analysis and random selection. Our empirical findings reveal that: (1) Walkable opportunities and diversity of services at the destination influence destination choice. (2) Route-specific network measures such as turn index and speed discontinuity display statistically significant effects on destination choice. (3) The familiarity factors reflected by distance to home, work, and downtown also plays a role. A destination closer to home and work, all else equal, is more likely to be selected. A destination farther away from downtown is more attractive for auto users. This research contributes to methodologies in modeling des- tination choice using GPS data. The results enhance our understanding of non-work travel behavior and have implications for transportation and land use planning. |
| Keywords: | GPS data, non-work trips, land use, axis of travel, destination choice |
| JEL: | R14 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:axisoftravel&r=ure |
| By: | Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi; Luis Felipe Céspedes; Alessandro Rebucci |
| Abstract: | This paper first compares house price cycles in advanced and emerging economies using a new quarterly house price dataset covering the period 1990- 2012. It is found that that house prices in emerging economies grow faster, are more volatile, less persistent and less synchronized across countries than in advanced economies. They also correlate more closely with capital flows than in advanced economies. The analysis is then conditioned on an exogenous change to global liquidity, broadly understood as a proxy for the international supply of credit. It is found that in emerging markets a global liquidity shock has a much stronger impact on house prices and consumption than in advanced economies. Finally, holding house prices constant in response to this shock tends to dampen its effects on consumption in both advanced and emerging economies, but possibly through different channels: in advanced economies by boosting the value of housing collateral and hence supporting domestic borrowing, and in emerging markets by appreciating the exchange rate and hence supporting the international borrowing capacity of the economy. |
| Keywords: | Capital flows, Housing finance, Exchange rates, Monetary Policy, Capital flows, Emerging markets, Global liquidity, House prices, External instrumental variables |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:88736&r=ure |
| By: | Qianqian Cao and Shimeng Liu |
| Abstract: | State foreclosure and bankruptcy laws govern the rights of mortgage lenders and borrowers during foreclosure and bankruptcy proceedings and therefore impact on lenders’ exposure to credit risk. This paper seeks to understand the effects of these state laws on the type of mortgages originated. The empirical identification is based on state-level variations in foreclosure and bankruptcy provisions and a border estimation strategy. We find that higher-risk loans (FHA and subprime loans) are more likely to be originated in a state with lender-friendly foreclosure laws. Also, higher-risk loans are less likely to be originated in a state with a more generous bankruptcy homestead exemption. In addition, our results are consistent with the idea that FHA and subprime loans share a very similar clientele and are close substitutes. These results are robust without the ordering assumption among conventional prime, FHA and subprime loans. |
| Keywords: | State foreclosure laws, homestead exemption, mortgage originations, ordered probit |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luk:wpaper:9411&r=ure |
| By: | Frame, W. Scott (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta); Fuster, Andreas (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Tracy, Joseph (Federal Reserve Bank of New York); Vickery, James (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) |
| Abstract: | We describe and evaluate the measures taken by the U.S. government to rescue Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in September 2008. We begin by outlining the business model of these two firms and their role in the U.S. housing finance system. Our focus then turns to the sources of financial distress that the firms experienced and the events that ultimately led the government to take action in an effort to stabilize housing and financial markets. We describe the various resolution options available to policymakers at the time and evaluate the success of the choice of conservatorship, and other actions taken, in terms of five objectives that we argue an optimal intervention would have fulfilled. We conclude that the decision to take the firms into conservatorship and invest public funds achieved its short-run goals of stabilizing mortgage markets and promoting financial stability during a period of extreme stress. However, conservatorship led to tensions between maximizing the firms’ value and achieving broader macroeconomic objectives, and, most importantly, it has so far failed to produce reform of the U.S. housing finance system. |
| Keywords: | Fannie Mae; Freddie Mac; housing finance; financial crisis; government intervention |
| JEL: | G1 G21 H12 |
| Date: | 2015–03–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedawp:2015-02&r=ure |
| By: | Lourdes Rodríguez-Chamussy |
| Abstract: | This paper uses variation in the timing of the Mexican antipoverty program's introduction across municipalities to identify its impact on the share of votes for the local incumbent party. Evidence is found that voters reward the mayor's party for the central benefit to their constituencies, accounting on average for 2.8 additional percentage points in the share of votes for the mayor's party. The analysis of party alignment shows that this electoral effect cannot be explained as a reward for the federal incumbent in local elections. Alternative explanations are examined, and it is shown that the effect for the local incumbent is heterogeneous for the different political parties and varies with characteristics of the municipalities, being stronger where the mayor faced more contestable elections, in capital cities of the states and in predominantly urban, more educated and relatively wealthier municipalities. Findings are consistent with the hypothesis that politicians have incentives to engage in signaling strategies to link themselves to the transfer program. |
| Keywords: | Municipal management, Elections, Municipal elections, Municipal elections, Voting, Government transfers |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:88073&r=ure |
| By: | Kumagai, Satoru; Ueki, Yasushi; Bullón, David; Sánchez, Natalia |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the current situation of industrial agglomeration in Costa Rica, utilizing firm-level panel data for the period 2008-2012. We calculated Location Quotient and Theil Index based on employment by industry and found that 14 cantons have the industrial agglomerations for 9 industries. The analysis is in line with the nature of specific industries, the development of areas of concentration around free zones, and the evolving participation of Costa Rica in GVCs. |
| Keywords: | Costa Rica, Industrial structure, Industry, Productivity, Economic development, Industrial Agglomeration |
| JEL: | L60 O54 R12 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper499&r=ure |
| By: | Klaus Desmet; Dávid Krisztián Nagy; Esteban Rossi-Hansberg |
| Abstract: | We study the relationship between geography and growth. To do so, we first develop a dynamic spatial growth theory with realistic geography. We characterize the model and its balanced growth path and propose a methodology to analyze equilibria with different levels of migration frictions. We bring the model to the data for the whole world economy at a 1°×1° geographic resolution. We then use the model to quantify the gains from relaxing migration restrictions as well as to describe the evolution of the distribution of economic activity in the different migration scenarios. Our results indicate that fully liberalizing migration would increase welfare more than three-fold and would significantly affect the evolution of particular regions in the world. We then use the model to study the effect of a spatial shock. We focus on the example of a rise in the sea level and find that coastal flooding can have an important impact on welfare by changing the geographic-dynamic path of the world economy. |
| JEL: | E2 F11 F18 F22 F43 O1 O4 R23 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21087&r=ure |
| By: | Guilherme Mendes Resende; Alexandre Xavier Ywata de Carvalho; Patrícia Alessandra Morita Sakowski |
| Abstract: | The goal of this paper is to evaluate the results of regional economic growth estimates at multiple spatial scales using spatial panel data models. The spatial scales examined are minimum comparable areas, micro-regions, meso-regions and states over the period between 1970 and 2000. Alternative spatial panel data models with fixed effects were systematically estimated across those spatial scales to demonstrate that the estimated coefficients change with the scale level. The results show that the conclusions obtained from growth regressions are dependent on the choice of spatial scale. First, club convergence hypothesis cannot be rejected suggesting there are differences in the convergence processes between the north and south in Brazil. Moreover, the positive average-years-of-schooling coefficient gets larger as more aggregate spatial scales are used. Transportation costs effect is positive and statistically significant to economic growth only at the state level. Population density coefficients show that higher populated areas are harmful to economic growth demonstrating somehow that congestion effects are operating at the MCA, micro-regional and meso-regional spatial scales, but their magnitudes vary across the geographic scales. Finally, the values of spatial spillovers coefficients also vary according to the spatial scale under analysis. In general, such coefficients are statistically significant at the MCA, micro-regional and meso-regional levels; but, at state level those coefficients are no longer statistically significant suggesting that spatial spillovers are bounded in space. O objetivo deste estudo consiste em avaliar os resultados de estimações de crescimento econômico regional em múltiplas escalas espaciais utilizando modelos de painel espacial. As escalas espaciais examinadas são áreas mínimas comparáveis, microrregiões, mesorregiões e estados no período entre 1970 e 2000. Modelos alternativos de painel espacial com efeitos fixos foram estimados sistematicamente nessas escalas espaciais para demonstrar que os coeficientes estimados variam de acordo com a escala utilizada. Os resultados mostram que as conclusões obtidas a partir de regressões de cre scimento dependem da escolha da escala espacial. Primeiramente, a hipótese de convergência de clube não pode ser rejeitada, sugerindo haver diferenças nos processos de convergência entre o norte e sul do Brasil. Além disso, o coeficiente positivo da média de anos de escolaridade aumenta quanto mais agregada a escala espacial utilizada. O efeito de custos de transporte é positivo e estatisticamente significante para o crescimento econômico apenas no nível do estado. Os coeficientes da densidade populacional mostram que áreas mais densamente povoadas são prejudiciais para o crescimento econômico, sugerindo efeitos de congestionamento no nível de AMC, microrregiões e mesorregiões, mas a magnitude desses coeficientes varia de acordo com a escala geográfica. Finalmente os coeficientes de transbordamento espacial também variam conforme a escala espacial sob análise. Em geral, esses coeficientes são estatisticamente significativos nos níveis de AMC, microrregião e mesorregião; mas, no nível estadual, deixam de ser estatisticamente significativos, sugerindo que transbordamentos espaciais são limitados no espaço. |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0193&r=ure |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | Children spend about a third of their waking hours in school during most weeks in the year. Thus, schools have a significant impact on children’s quality of life – including their relationships with peers and adults, and their dispositions towards learning and life more generally. Longitudinal studies suggest that students’ results on the PISA test are correlated with how well students will do later on in life; but strong performance in standardised assessments like PISA explains only so much of future results in other endeavours. Success and well-being in life also depend on how well students have been able to develop socially and emotionally. |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduddd:50-en&r=ure |
| By: | Shimeng Liu |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the short- and long-run effects of universities on geographic clustering of economic activity, labor market composition and local productivity and presents evidence of local spillovers from universities. I treat the designation of land-grant universities in the 1860s as a natural experiment after controlling for the confounding factors with a combination of synthetic control methods and event-study analyses. Three key results are obtained. First, the designation increased local population density by 6 percent within 10 years and 45 percent in 80 years. Second, the designation did not change the relative size of local manufacturing sector. Third, the designation enhanced local manufacturing output per worker by $2136 (1840 dollars; 57 percent) in 80 years while the short-run effects were negligible. This positive effect on the productivity in non-education sectors suggests the existence of local spillovers from universities. Over an 80-year horizon, my results indicate that the increase in manufacturing productivity reflects both the impact of direct spillovers from universities and general agglomeration economies that arise from the increase in population. |
| Keywords: | Land-Grant Universities, Short- and Long-Run Effects, Spillovers |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:luk:wpaper:9410&r=ure |
| By: | Costas Meghir (Economics Deptartment, Yale University); Corina Momaerts (Economics Department, Yale University); Pedro Carneiro (University College London); Oswald Koussihouede (University Gaston Berger); Nathalie Lahire (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | The impact of school resources on the quality of education in developing countries may depend crucially on whether resources are targeted efficiently. In this paper we use a randomized experiment to analyze the impact of a school grants program in Senegal, which decentralized a portion of the country's education budget. We find large positive effects on test scores at younger grades that persist at least two years. We show that these effects are concentrated among schools that focused funds on human resources improvements rather than school materials, suggesting the teachers and principals may be a central determinant of school quality. |
| Keywords: | quality of education, decentralization, school resources, child development, clustered randomized control trials |
| JEL: | H52 I22 I25 O15 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egc:wpaper:1047&r=ure |
| By: | Claire Papaix; Ariane Dupont-Kieffer |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we develop a proxy measure to appraise equity in urban mobility policy by applying the theoretical framework of Martens (2011). Using the commuting trips database of 2006 on the large Lille urban area, and geo-localized employment data from the French Census of 2010, we compute an indicator of the spatial accessibility to work by public transport (PT) at the municipal level, as the “good to redistribute”. This allows to identify the municipalities the most lagging behind in terms of PT travel time to reach the average “potentially accessible job market”. Then, starting from general observations on social differences among commuters for accessing to the labor market, we aggregate this indicator at the scale of commuter groups – by gender, educational background, socio-professional category, immigration status and household structure. Lastly, we simulate the reduction of PT travel times to work by successively 20% and 40% from the least served communes and we analyze the effects at the stage of travelers groups (i.e. “members of the society”). Interpreting results in the light of the sufficiency approach (i.e.the retained “yardstick rule”), we conclude that only transport-oriented policy is not the panacea to address equity and that cross-sectoral solutions are needed. |
| Keywords: | Public transport policy, Potential accessibility to work, Social equity, Conservation area, Sufficiency approach. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cec:wpaper:1506&r=ure |
| By: | Pande, Swati M.S., MPP; Martinez, Martin MPP |
| Abstract: | This paper describes how regional funding guidelines can affect local adoption of Complete Streets projects. The Metropolitan Transportation Commission (MTC), the regional Metropolitan Planning Organization for the nine-county Bay Area region in California, has developed a funding approach called the One Bay Area Grant (OBAG) for the allocation of funds for the 2012-2016 Congestion Mitigation and Air Quality (CMAQ) and Surface Transportation Program (STP) across the Bay Area. Each jurisdiction receiving funding through OBAG was required to demonstrate compliance with Complete Streets (CS) policies either by passing a resolution or by certifying that its general plan circulation element was compliant with California’s Complete Streets Act of 2008. This analysis examines the extent and manifestation of this compliance. The OBAG framework allocated significantly more funding to County Congestion Management agencies than was provided during the prior CMAQ/STP cycle (Cycle 1 CMAQ). It also gave counties increased flexibility in decision making by removing program specific silos that were present in Cycle 1 CMAQ. This increased flexibility resulted in an increase in the number of multi-modal projects funded through OBAG. OBAG’s regional funding requirements for Complete Streets compliance through policy have the potential to influence Complete Streets implementation by local agencies in the long term and to serve as a model for other state or local planning agencies seeking to increase investments in pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, san francisco, complete streets |
| Date: | 2014–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt49w1v7wz&r=ure |
| By: | Rafael Henrique Moraes Pereira; Frederico Rosa Borges de Holanda; Valério Augusto Soares de Medeiros; Ana Paula Borba Gonçalves Barros |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the potentials of applying Space Syntax methodology to analyze the effects of urban configuration on cities’ transport performance. The empirical analysis takes as a case study the Federal District (Brazil) and its 19 administrative regions considering its urban road system. Based on Simple Linear Regressions, the paper analyzes the effects that urban configuration with different integration degrees have on the average time spent in car trips. Integration measures are calculated using traditional configurational variables as well as topo-geometric variables. The results indicate that traditional topological measures are of little use in studies on the effects of road configuration on urban transportation performance. In addition, topo-geometric measures have shown much better results. Finally, preliminary findings suggest that more integrated and compact road systems (in topological and geometrical terms) tend to provide an urban configuration more efficient for the performance of urban motorized transportation. O presente estudo explora o potencial de aplicação da sintaxe espacial (SE) para se analisar os efeitos da configuração urbana sobre o desempenho do transporte nas cidades. Tomou-se como estudo de caso a configuração urbana dos sistemas viários do Distrito Federal (Brasil) e de suas 19 regiões administrativas (RAs), além da informação sobre o tempo médio despendido nos deslocamentos realizados em automóveis nesses sistemas. Com análises de Regressão Linear Simples, se buscou avaliar o efeito que o grau de integração das diferentes configurações urbanas – mensurado por variáveis configuracionais tradicionais e variáveis topo-geométricas – teria sobre o tempo médio despendido nesses deslocamentos. Os resultados encontrados sugerem que existe baixo potencial para a aplicação das medidas topológicas mais tradicionais em estudos acerca dos efeitos da configuração viária sobre o desempenho do transporte urbano, que este potencial pode ser largamente ampliado ao se utilizar medidas topo-geométricas para caracterização da configuração urbana e que sistemas viários mais integrados e mais compactos – em termos topológicos e geométricos – tendem a proporcionar uma configuração urbana mais eficiente para o desempenho do transporte urbano motorizado com menores tempos de deslocamento. |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0188&r=ure |
| By: | Andrew B. Bernard; Andreas Moxnes; Yukiko U. Saito |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the importance of buyer-supplier relationships, geography and the structure of the production network in firm performance. We develop a simple model where firms can outsource tasks and search for suppliers in different locations. Low search and outsourcing costs lead firms to search more and find better suppliers. This in turn drives down the firm's marginal production costs. We test the theory by exploiting the opening of a high-speed (Shinkansen) train line in Japan which lowered the cost of passenger travel but left shipping costs unchanged. Using an exhaustive dataset on firms' buyer-seller linkages, we find significant improvements in firm performance as well as creation of new buyer-seller links, consistent with the model. |
| JEL: | D22 D85 F14 L10 L14 R12 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21082&r=ure |
| By: | Samantha Leorato (DEF and CEIS University of Rome Tor Vergata); Maura Mezzetti (DEF and CEIS University of Rome Tor Vergata) |
| Abstract: | A hierarchical Bayesian model for spatial panel data is proposed. The idea behind the proposed method is to analyze spatially dependent panel data by means of a separable covariance matrix. Let us indicate the observations as yit, i = 1,...,N regions and t = 1,...,T time, var(y), the covariance matrix of y is written as a Kronecker product of a purely spatial and a purely temporal covariance. On the one hand, the structure of separable covariances dramatically reduces the number of parameters, while on the other, the lack of a structured pattern for spatial and temporal covariances permits to capture possible unknown dependencies (both in time and space). The use of the Bayesian approach allows to overcome some of the difficulties of the classical (MLE or GMM based) approach. We present two illustrative examples: the estimation of cigarette price elasticity and of the determinants of the house price in 120 municipalities in the Province of Rome. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian Inference, Kronecker Product, Separable Covariance Matrix, Inverted Wishart Distribution, Spatial-Temporal Dependence |
| JEL: | C11 C23 |
| Date: | 2015–04–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:338&r=ure |
| By: | Calista Cheung; Dmitry Granovsky; Gabriella Velasco |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses broad trends in labour force participation and part-time employment across different age groups since the Great Recession and uses provincial data to identify changes related to population aging, cyclical effects and other factors. The main population age groups examined are youth (aged 15–24), prime age (25–54) and older (55 and above). Six main findings are reported. First, aging has been the most important driver of reduced participation. On their own, aging effects would have depressed participation rates by more than they fell between 2007 and 2014, and have been partly offset by rising participation rates of older workers. Second, shifting age composition has had the largest impact on the Atlantic provinces, owing primarily to their shrinking prime-age populations as some workers have migrated west. Third, a considerable part of the overall participation rate decline since 2007 reflects a greater share of prime-age and youth populations that are out of the labour force for various reasons including school, illness, and family responsibilities. These changes appear to be driven by both structural and cyclical forces, although the relative importance of each is unclear. Fourth, effects associated with “discouraged workers” have been negligible. Fifth, youth participation rates have fallen the most, by 2.8 percentage points since 2007, with 9 per cent of the decline reflecting purely higher school enrolment rates. Sixth, weak business conditions appear to be the main driver behind the shift toward part-time employment since the Great Recession, with involuntary part-time work explaining almost the entire increase since 2007. |
| Keywords: | Labour markets, Recent economic and financial developments, Regional economic developments |
| JEL: | E E2 E24 E3 E32 J J1 J2 J21 J6 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocadp:15-2&r=ure |
| By: | Giroud, Xavier; Mueller, Holger M |
| Abstract: | We argue that firms’ balance sheets were instrumental in the propagation of shocks during the Great Recession. Using establishment-level data, we show that firms that tightened their debt capacity in the run-up (“high-leverage firms”) exhibit a significantly larger decline in employment in response to household demand shocks than firms that freed up debt capacity (“low-leverage firms”). In fact, all of the job losses associated with falling house prices during the Great Recession are concentrated among establishments of high-leverage firms. At the county level, we find that counties with a larger fraction of establishments belonging to high-leverage firms exhibit a significantly larger decline in employment in response to household demand shocks. Thus, firms’ balance sheets also matter for aggregate employment. |
| Keywords: | financial accelerator; firm balance sheet channel; leverage; unemployment |
| JEL: | E24 E32 G32 R3 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10539&r=ure |
| By: | Simon Burgess |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to understanding the ‘London Effect’, focussing on the role of the ethnic composition. The aim is to understand the statistical contribution to the London premium of ethnic composition. I also analyse data on the performance of recent immigrants. The results confirm that pupil progress on standard measures is significantly higher than the rest of England, 9.8% of a standard deviation. This is entirely accounted for by ethnic composition. The last decade of results shows the same result. I show that for other measures of attainment, the London premium is halved but remains significant. |
| JEL: | I20 I24 |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:cmpowp:14/333&r=ure |
| By: | Schneider, Nicole |
| Abstract: | Many of San Francisco’s streets are dangerous by design. Each day in the city, at least three people walking are hit by cars. In 2013, a near-record number of people were killed while walking and biking: 21 pedestrians and four bicyclists were victims of lethal traffic crimes–including six year-old Sofia Liu(link is external) and an 86 year old man who were both killed in crosswalks–the highest number since 2007. In response to increasing number of traffic-related injuries and deaths, Walk SF, the San Francisco Bicycle Coalition, and a coalition of over 30 community organizations called on City leaders and agencies to formally adopt Vision Zero policies that include funding and implementing critical engineering, enforcement, and education efforts. This presentation will tell the story of year one of Vision Zero in San Francisco and where the City is headed in year two. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, San Francisco, Street, Walk SF, Vision Zero |
| Date: | 2014–11–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt9n18r3td&r=ure |
| By: | Falck, Oliver (University of Munich); Mang, Constantin (University of Munich); Woessmann, Ludger (University of Munich) |
| Abstract: | Most studies find little to no effect of classroom computers on student achievement. We suggest that this null effect may combine positive effects of computer uses without equivalently effective alternative traditional teaching practices and negative effects of uses that substitute more effective teaching practices. Our correlated random effects models exploit within-student between-subject variation in different computer uses in the international TIMSS test. We find positive effects of using computers to look up information and negative effects of using computers to practice skills, resulting in overall null effects. Effects are larger for high-SES students and mostly confined to developed countries. |
| Keywords: | Computers, teaching methods, student achievement, TIMSS |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:223&r=ure |
| By: | Gerdesmeier, Dieter; Reimers, Hans-Eggert; Roffia, Barbara |
| Abstract: | This paper models the relationship between consumer and asset prices (approximated by house prices, oil prices and the exchange rate) by means of a Markov Switching model (MS model). It can be shown that house prices appear to play a significant role in the determination of consumer prices in a high-inflation and a low-inflation regime, whereas oil prices and the exchange rate only unfold an impact in a high-inflation regime. Taken together, these results can be seen as being of help for the monetary policy decision-making process. |
| JEL: | D12 D13 E31 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hswwdp:012015&r=ure |
| By: | Simon Burgess; Matt Dickson |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact on earnings inequality of a selective education system in which school assignment is based on initial test scores. We use a large, representative household panel survey to compare adult earnings inequality of those growing up under a selective education system with those educated under a comprehensive system. Controlling for a range of background characteristics and the current location, the wage distribution for individuals who grew up in selective schooling areas is quantitatively and statistically significantly more unequal. The total effect sizes are large: 14% of the raw 90-10 earnings gap and 18% of the conditional 90-10 earnings gap can be explained by differences across schooling systems. |
| Keywords: | selective schooling, inequality, wages |
| JEL: | I24 J31 |
| Date: | 2014–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:cmpowp:14/323&r=ure |
| By: | Reichelt, Malte (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Abraham, Martin |
| Abstract: | "Job mobility offers opportunities for workers to obtain wage increases, but returns to job changes differ considerably. We argue that parts of this inequality result from a trade-off between occupational and regional mobility. Both mobility types offer alternative strategies to improve one's labor market position; however, they each contain unique restrictions. High costs for regional mobility can thus evoke occupation changes, even though the resulting human capital devaluation leads to lower wage increases. We use linked retrospective life-course data for Germany (ALWA-ADIAB) and apply competing risks models to show that restrictions on one type of mobility drive individuals toward the other. Using fixed-effects regressions, we show that occupational mobility leads to lower wage increases compared to regional mobility. We conclude that the trade-off between occupational and regional mobility explains part of the differential returns to job mobility and contributes to wage inequality. We expect these mechanisms to become more pronounced in the future as technological and institutional changes alter job requirements and thereby mobility incentives." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| JEL: | J31 J61 J62 |
| Date: | 2015–04–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201514&r=ure |
| By: | Luca Papi (Universit… Politecnica delle Marche, Dipartimento di Scienze economcihe e Sociali, MoFiR); Emma Sarno (Universit… di Napoli "L'Orientale"); Alberto Zazzaro (Universit… Politecnica delle Marche, MoFiR) |
| Abstract: | The evolution of the banking industry has always been affected by recurrent waves of technological, regulatory and organizational changes. All such changes have significant effects on the spatial organization of banks, the interconnectedness of geographical credit markets and the core-periphery structure of banking industry. In this chapter, we review the literature on the effects of geographical distances between the key actors of the credit market (the borrowing firm, the lending branch, the lending bank, and rival banks) on lending relationships and interbank competition. Using the metrics and graph techniques for network analysis we then provide evidence concerning the evolving geographical network of bank organizations in Italy. |
| Keywords: | Distances in credit markets, network analysis, spatial organization of banks |
| JEL: | G2 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wmofir:105&r=ure |