|
on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Gadi Barlevy; Jonas D. M. Fisher |
| Abstract: | We describe a rational expectations model in which speculative bubbles in house prices can emerge. Within this model both speculators and their lenders use interest-only mortgages (IOs) rather than traditional mortgages when there is a bubble. Absent a bubble, there is no tendency for IOs to be used. These insights are used to assess the extent to which house prices in US cities were driven by speculative bubbles over the period 2000-2008. We find that IOs were used sparingly in cities where elastic housing supply precludes speculation from arising. In cities with inelastic supply, where speculation is possible, there was heavy use of IOs, but only in cities that had boom-bust cycles. Peak IO usage predicts rapid appreciations that cannot be explained by standard correlates and this variable is more robustly correlated with rapid appreciations than other mortgage characteristics, including sub-prime, securitization and leverage. Where IOs were popular, their use does not appear to have been a response to houses becoming more expensive. Indeed, their use anticipated future appreciation. Finally, consistent with the reason why lenders prefer IOs, these mortgages are more likely to be repaid earlier or foreclose. Combined with our model, this evidence suggests that speculative bubbles were an important factor driving prices in cities with boom-bust cycles.> |
| Keywords: | Mortgage loans ; Mortgage-backed securities ; Housing - Prices |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2010-12&r=ure |
| By: | Emily Talen (GeoDa Center for Geospatial Analysis and Computation; Arizona State University); Julia Koschinsky (GeoDa Center for Geospatial Analysis and Computation; Arizona State University) |
| Abstract: | This article explores the connection between subsidized housing and sustainable urban form. Given the general disconnect between new market-rate housing in sustainable, walkable neighborhoods and affordable housing opportunities, we expect affordable housing to be located in less sustainable locations in terms of proximity to amenities, walkability, street connectivity, density, and diversity of urban form. A rich set of parcel and planning data for the city of Chicago was used to correlate sustainability indicators with the locations of both project- and tenant-based affordable housing programs. Difference-in-means tests and other descriptive statistical analysis suggest that project-based locations (with the exception of CHA family units) actually score above average, especially in terms of accessibility and walkability, albeit it at the cost of concentrated poverty, racial segregation, and crime. In contrast, vouchers are located in less sustainable locations when it comes to accessibility and walkability, although they are in neighborhoods with more diversity and less poverty —and, at lower voucher concentrations, with less segregation and crime— than project units. |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asg:wpaper:2&r=ure |
| By: | Chiara Forlati (Chair of International Finance, Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL), Switzerland); Luisa Lambertini (Chair of International Finance, Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL), Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a DSGE model with housing, risky mortgages and endogenous default. Housing investment is subject to idiosyncratic risk and some mortgages are defaulted in equilibrium. An unanticipated increase in the standard deviation of housing investment produces a credit crunch where delinquencies and mortgage interest rates increase, lending is curtailed, and aggregate demand for non-durable goods falls. The economy experiences a recession as a consequence of the credit crunch. The paper compares economies that differ only in the riskiness of housing investment. Economies with lower risk are characterized by lower steady-state mortgage default rates and higher loan-to-value and leverage ratios. The macroeconomic effects of an unanticipated increase in housing investment risk are amplified in high-leverage economies. Monetary policy plays an important role in the transmission of housing investment risk, as inertial interest rate rules generate deeper output contractions. |
| Keywords: | Housing, Mortgage default, Mortgage Risk |
| JEL: | E32 E44 R31 |
| Date: | 2010–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cif:wpaper:201002&r=ure |
| By: | Giuliano Guerra (Institute for Economic Research (IRE), University of Lugano, Switzerland); Roberto Patuelli (Institute for Economic Research (IRE), University of Lugano, Switzerland; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, Italy) |
| Abstract: | Theoretical and empirical research suggests a connection between the presence of role models and the emergence of entrepreneurs. Existing entrepreneurs may act as role models for self-employment candidates by providing successful examples. By explicitly considering the self-employment rates of the natives, which may influence locally the decisions of immigrants towards entrepreneurship, we develop a simple model that explains immigrant self-employment rates for a sample of 2,490 Swiss municipalities. In addition, we accommodate for the presence of spatial spillovers in the distribution of rates, and test a spatial autoregressive model which takes into account the average self-employment rates of immigrants living in nearby municipalities. Our evidence shows a significant (positive) effect of such spatial network effects, which are characterized by a quick distance decay, suggesting spatial spillovers at the household and social network level. Additionally, we show that local conditions and immigrant pool characteristics differ, with respect to self-employment choices, when examining separately urban and rural contexts. |
| Keywords: | immigrants, self-employment, role models, Switzerland, spatial lag |
| JEL: | C21 J24 J61 O15 R23 |
| Date: | 2010–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lug:wpaper:1010&r=ure |
| By: | S. J. Rey |
| Abstract: | While an enormous and growing literature exists on the topic of regional income convergence, other aspects of socioeconomic well-being and development have attracted much less attention. Social indicators are a valuable complement to economic indicators when analyzing spatial patterns in a given geographic region, and can often yield a more comprehensive view about regional socioeconomic behavior. In poorer nations dominated by many low income areas that exhibit similar economic performance, social indicators may reveal further insight into the differences among regions. This paper explores the issue of educational convergence in Peru over the period 1993 to 2005. Using both exploratory spatial data analysis and spatial econometrics, the study is conducted at province level in order to uncover potential spatial patterns that help explain variation in educational performance over time, among regions, and across different terrain. |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asg:wpaper:4&r=ure |
| By: | Giuseppe Espa; Giuseppe Arbia; Diego Giuliani |
| Abstract: | Why do industrial clusters occur in space? Is it because industries need to stay close together to interact or, conversely, because they concentrate in certain portions of space to exploit favourable conditions like public incentives, proximity to communication networks, to big population concentrations or to reduce transport costs? This is a fundamental question and the attempt to answer to it using empirical data is a challenging statistical task. In economic geography scientists refer to this dichotomy using the two categories of spatial interaction and spatial reaction to common factors. In economics we can refer to a distinction between exogenous causes and endogenous effects. In spatial econometrics and statistics we use the terms of spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity. A series of recent papers introduced explorative methods to analyses the spatial patterns of firms using micro data and characterizing each firm by its spatial coordinates. In such a setting a spatial distribution of firms is seen as a point pattern and an industrial cluster as the phenomenon of extra-concentration of one industry with respect to the concentration of a benchmarking spatial distribution. Often the benchmarking distribution is that of the whole economy on the ground that exogenous factors affect in the same way all branches. Using such an approach a positive (or negative) spatial dependence between firms is detected when the pattern of a specific sector is more aggregated (or more dispersed) than the one of the whole economy. In this paper we suggest a parametric approach to the analysis of spatial heterogeneity, based on the socalled inhomogeneous K-function (Baddeley et al., 2000). We present an empirical application of the method to the spatial distribution of high-tech industries in Milan (Italy) in 2001. We consider the economic space to be non homogenous, we estimate the pattern of inhomogeneity and we use it to separate spatial heterogeneity from spatial dependence. |
| JEL: | C15 C21 C59 R12 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:trn:utwpde:1014&r=ure |
| By: | Åslund, Olof (Institute for Labour Market Policy Evaluation (IFAU), Uppsala University, IZA, and Uppsala Center for Labor Studies (UCLS).); Edin, Per-Anders (Uppsala University, IFAU, and UCLS.); Fredriksson, Peter (Stockholm University, IZA, and UCLS.); Grönqvist, Hans (Swedish Institute for Social Research (SOFI) Stockholm University.) |
| Abstract: | We examine to what extent immigrant school performance is affected by the characteristics of the neighborhoods that they grow up in. We address this issue using a refugee placement policy which provides exogenous variation in the initial place of residence in Sweden. The main result is that school performance is increasing in the number of highly educated adults sharing the subject’s ethnicity. A standard deviation increase in the fraction of high-educated in the assigned neighborhood raises compulsory school GPA by 0.9 percentile ranks. Particularly for disadvantaged groups, there are also long-run effects on educational attainment. |
| Keywords: | Peer effects; Ethnic enclaves; Immigration; School performance |
| JEL: | I20 J15 Z13 |
| Date: | 2010–11–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:sunrpe:2010_0024&r=ure |
| By: | Davide Burgalassi |
| Abstract: | Polycentric development in regions has many dimensions, which involve several definitions and measures. This paper tackles the problem of defining and measuring polycentricity under an integrated and multi- dimensional perspective. Firstly, the policy relevance of polycentricity is analysed. Then, the paper identifes the definitions and measures of polycentricity by surveying the literature. It also provides a taxonomy among two main aspects involved in the definition of polycentricity: the morphological dimension and the functional dimension. Based on this background, an empirical analysis is carried out, by using data about population and commuting flows in the Tuscany Region (Italy). The results show that Tuscany can be viewed as a polycentric spatial structure, both considering rank-size distribution of cities and spatial interaction. |
| Keywords: | Polycentric Development, Spatial Structure, Rank-size Estimations, Spatial Interaction, Tuscany. |
| JEL: | O18 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2010–01–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2010/101&r=ure |
| By: | S. J. Rey; L. Anselin; D. C. Folch; M. L. Sastre-Gutierrez |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a new approach to measuring neighborhood change. Instead of the traditional method of identifying “neighborhoods†a priori and then studying how resident attributes change over time, our approach looks at the neighborhood more intrinsically as a unit that has both a geographic footprint and a socioeconomic composition. Therefore, change is identified when both as- pects of a neighborhood transform from one period to the next. Our approach is based on a spatial clustering algorithm that identifies neighborhoods at two points in time for one city. We also develop indicators of spatial change at both the macro (city) level as well as local (neighborhood) scale. We illustrate these methods in an application to an extensive database of time-consistent census tracts for 359 of the largest metropolitan areas in the US for the period 1990-2000. |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asg:wpaper:5&r=ure |
| By: | Degen, Kathrin (Swiss National Bank); Fischer, Andreas M. (Swiss National Bank) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the behavior of Swiss house prices to immigration flows for 85 districts from 2001 to 2006. The results show that the nexus between immigration and house prices holds even in an environment of low house price inflation, nationwide rent control, and modest immigration flows. An immigration inflow equal to 1% of an area’s population is coincident with an increase in prices for single-family homes of about 2.7%: a result consistent with previous studies. The overall immigration effect for single-family houses captures almost two-thirds of the total price increase. |
| Keywords: | Immigration; Housing Prices |
| JEL: | F22 J61 R21 |
| Date: | 2010–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:snbwpa:2010_016&r=ure |
| By: | Michael, Funke (BOFIT); Michael, Paetz (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops an open-economy DSGE model with a housing-market sector and a borrowing constraint. Contrary to standard conventions, domestic households are allowed to invest in foreign housing and vice versa. Using Bayesian methods, the model is applied to data for Hong Kong. The results show that Hong Kong’s housing market is quite open to foreign investment, and perhaps more significantly, that variations in the loan-to-value ratio and housing preference shocks largely explain business cycle volatility. |
| Keywords: | DSGE models; housing; open economy; Hong Kong |
| JEL: | D91 E21 E44 F41 |
| Date: | 2010–11–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2010_019&r=ure |
| By: | Michele Raitano (University of Rome, department of public economics); Francesco Vona (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques) |
| Abstract: | The empirical literature using large international students’ assessments tends to neglect the role of school composition variables in order not to incur in a misidentification of peer effects. However, this leads to an error of higher logical type since the learning environment crucially depends on peers’ family background and on peer heterogeneity. In this paper, using PISA 2006, we show how peer heterogeneity is a key determinant of student attainment and of opportunity equalization. Interestingly, the effect of school compositional variables differs depending on the country tracking policy: peer heterogeneity reduces efficiency in comprehensive systems whereas it has a non-linear impact in early-tracking ones. In turn, linear peer effects are larger in early-tracking systems. Besides, higher heterogeneity tends to equalize student differences related to family background. Results do not change in school- and student-level regressions suggesting that the impact of heterogeneity is correctly identified. Results are also robust when we add school-level dummies and several controls correlated with the school choice to alleviate the selectivity bias of linear peer effects. |
| Keywords: | peer heterogeneity, peer effects, schooling tracking, educational production function, equality of opportunities. |
| JEL: | I21 I28 J24 |
| Date: | 2010–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fce:doctra:1023&r=ure |
| By: | Benjamin Montmartin (GATE Lyon Saint-Etienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines) |
| Abstract: | Since the Lisbon Agenda (2000), the European Union policies are in- creasingly oriented towards innovation as attested to by the deep change of the new Regional Policy. This paper proposes an analysis of an innovation subsidy policy in an agglomeration and growth model à la Martin and Ottaviano (1999). In this two-regions model, we assume that the policy is implemented by a central authority that taxes the profit of industrial firms to subsidy employment in innovative activities. We show that the positive effects on growth and equity of such a policy, as highlighted by Martin (1999), hold in the case where the policy is not geographically differentiated. In the case where the government however grants larger subsidies to the poorer region in order to reduce the concentration of the innovative sector, we show that the policy can be inefficient if it is not of sufficient magnitude. |
| Keywords: | economic geography; endogenous growth; public policy; subsidies; Regional Policy |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00537867_v1&r=ure |
| By: | S. W. Myint |
| Abstract: | Spectral mixture analysis is probably the most commonly used approach among sub-pixel analysis techniques. This method models pixel spectra as a linear combination of spectral signatures from two or more ground components. However, spectral mixture analysis does not account for the absence of one of the surface features or spectral variation within pure materials since it utilizes an invariable set of surface features. Multiple endmember spectral mixture analysis (MESMA), which addresses these issues by allowing endmembers to vary on a per pixel basis, was employed in this study to model Landsat ETM+ reflectance in the Phoenix metropolitan area. Image endmember spectra of vegetation, soils, and impervious surfaces were collected with the use of a fine resolution Quickbird image and the pixel purity index. This study employed 204 (=3x17x4) total four-endmember models for the urban subset and 96 (=6x6x2x4) total five-endmember models for the non-urban subset to identify fractions of soil, impervious surface, vegetation, and shade. The Pearson correlation between the fraction outputs from MESMA and reference data from Quickbird 60 cm resolution data for soil, impervious, and vegetation were 0.8030, 0.8632, and 0.8496 respectively. Results from this study suggest that the MESMA approach is effective in mapping urban land covers in desert cities at sub- pixel level. |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asg:wpaper:10&r=ure |
| By: | E. A. Wentz; S. W. Myint |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asg:wpaper:8&r=ure |
| By: | Elizabeth Laderman; Carolina Reid |
| Abstract: | Over the last three years, the financial crisis and ensuing recession have led to tectonic shifts in the availability of credit, especially for small businesses. Data show that the number of loans to small businesses has dropped from 5.2 million loans in 2007 to 1.6 million in 2009. This trend is of significant concern to policy-makers, particularly given the important role that small businesses play in the US economy. Making credit accessible to small businesses, therefore, is seen as a critical component of economic recovery. Despite this policy focus, however, few studies have documented recent trends in small business lending, and even fewer have focused attention on the implications of the reduction in credit for small businesses in low- and moderate-income neighborhoods. ; In this paper, we seek to address this gap by examining trends in small business lending in low- and moderate-income (LMI) neighborhoods by large banks regulated under the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA). We find that there is a strong relationship between the boom and bust housing market cycle and patterns in small business lending, both over time and over space. While small business lending expanded rapidly between 2003 and 2007, this expansion was uneven, and neither LMI communities nor neighborhoods with a high percentage of African American residents appear to have benefited as much as other areas from the boom. Since 2007, small business lending has contracted significantly, particularly in areas that have also seen contractions in the housing sector. Our results show significant spillover effects of the mortgage crisis into small business lending—for the economy as a whole as well as for LMI areas in particular. Our findings suggest that in order to reverse the cycle of disinvestment in neighborhoods hit hard by foreclosures, we need to address the small business sector as well as housing. |
| Keywords: | Bank loans ; Small business - Finance |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedfcw:2010-05&r=ure |
| By: | Muhamed Kudic; P. Bönisch; Iciar Dominguez Lacasa |
| Abstract: | Empirical and theoretical contributions provide strong evidence that firm-level performance outcomes in terms of innovativeness can either be determined by the firm’s position in the social space (network effects) or by the firm’s position in the geographical space (co-location effects). Even though we can observe quite recently first attempts in bringing together these traditionally distinct research streams (Whittington et al. 2009), research on interdependent network and geographical co-location effects is still rare. Consequently, we seek to answer the following research question: considering that the effects of social and geographic proximity on firm’s innovativeness can be interdependent, what are the distinct and combined effects of firm’s network and geographic position on firm-level innovation output? We analyze the innovative performance of German laser source manufacturers between 1995 and 2007. We use an official database on publicly funded R&D collaboration projects in order to construct yearly networks and analyze firm’s network positions. Based on information on population entries and exits we calculate various types of geographical proximity measures between private sector and public research organizations (PRO). We use patent grants as dependent variable in order to measure firm-level innovation output. Empirical results provide evidence for distinct effect of network degree centrality. Distinct effect of firm’s geographical co-location to laser-related public research organization promotes patenting activity. Results on combined network and co-location effects confirms partially the existence of in-terdependent proximity effects, even though a closer look at these effects reveals some ambiguous but quite interesting findings. |
| Keywords: | geographical co-location, network positioning, innovation output |
| JEL: | O31 O32 L25 |
| Date: | 2010–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwh:dispap:22-10&r=ure |
| By: | E. A. Mack; L. Anselin |
| Abstract: | Despite the volume of literature afforded knowledge work and innovations in information and communications technologies (ICTs), few studies have examined the importance of ICTs to firms in knowledge industries. This study will develop spatial econometric models to examine the relative importance of the level of broadband provision to knowledge intensive firms in select U.S. Â metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). Results demonstrate the need for both a spatial econometric and a metropolitan area specific evaluation of this relationship. They also suggest potential spillover effects to knowledge intensive firm location, which may explain why some regional economies are relatively more successful at stimulating firm growth in this increasingly important sector of the U.S economy. |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asg:wpaper:9&r=ure |
| By: | S. J. Rey; A. T. Murray; L. Anselin |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a new approach to the analysis of regional income distribution dynamics. Drawing on recent advances in geovisualiza- tion, we suggest a spatially explicit view of income mobility. Based on the integration of a dynamic local indicator of spatial association (LISA) together with directional statistics, this framework provides new insights on the role of spatial dependence in regional income growth and change. These new ap- proaches are illustrated in a case study of state level incomes in the U.S. over the 1969-2008 period. |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asg:wpaper:3&r=ure |
| By: | Wolfgang Polasek (Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria; University of Porto, Porto, Portugal; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA)); Richard Sellner (Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria); Carlos Llano (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Departamento de Análisis Económico, Madrid, Spain) |
| Abstract: | Missing data in dynamic panel models occur quite often since detailed recording of the dependent variable is often not possible at all observation points in time and space. In this paper we develop classical and Bayesian methods to complete missing data in panel models. The Chow-Lin (1971) method is a classical method for completing dependent disaggregated data and is successfully applied in economics to disaggregate aggregated time series. We will extend the space-time panel model in a new way to include cross-sectional and spatially correlated data. The missing disaggregated data will be obtained either by point prediction or by a numerical (posterior) predictive density. Furthermore, we point out that the approach can be extended to more complex models, like ow data or systems of panel data. The panel Chow-Lin approach will be demonstrated with examples involving regional growth for Spanish regions. |
| Keywords: | Space-time interpolation, Spatial panel econometrics, MCMC, Spatial Chow-Lin, missing regional data, Spanish provinces, MCMC, NUTS: nomenclature of territorial units for statistics |
| JEL: | C11 C15 C52 E17 R12 |
| Date: | 2010–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rim:rimwps:47_10&r=ure |
| By: | E. A. Mack |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asg:wpaper:1&r=ure |
| By: | Guilherme Jonas Costa da Silva (UFU); Frederico G. Jayme Jr (Cedeplar-UFMG) |
| Abstract: | The paper tried to contribute to the theory of the location of the bank services. At first, there was strong evidence showing that the bank location not only depended on economical factors. The developed model and the results found in the spatial econometrics analysis demonstrated that there is in fact certain spatial dependence in the location strategy of the banks, besides, that the distribution pattern of the agencies in the state of Minas Gerais is being explained through macroeconomics, political and prescriptive factors as well. |
| Keywords: | Banks; Location Strategy; Spatial Econometrics; Minas Gerais |
| JEL: | C21 G21 R12 |
| Date: | 2010–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td410&r=ure |
| By: | Canonva, Luciano; Vaglio, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the role performed by mothers in affecting their childrens performance at school. The article develops firstly a theoretical modelin which household (parent - child pair) is treated as an individual, whose utility depends both on the performance at school of the student and on consumption. The model focuses on the different possibilities through which help of mothers may affect pupils' performance both in terms of time devoted to supervision and spillover effects. Empirical evidence then, using PISA 2006 and focusing on Italian case, shows that education of mothers is an issue when interacted with her occupational status. Highly educated mothers have a positive impact on students' score only when they are highly qualifi ed in the job market. |
| Keywords: | PISA 2006; parental help; education |
| JEL: | H0 N34 R2 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:27019&r=ure |
| By: | Persson, Mattias (Department of Business, Economics, Statistics and Informatics); Svensson, Mikael (Department of Business, Economics, Statistics and Informatics) |
| Abstract: | Being a victim of school bullying is related to several severe direct and indirect negative social and health consequences. There are an increasing number of antibullying programs used in schools in order to prevent and reduce school bullying, but often with a lack of understanding both regarding the effectiveness and monetary benefits of these programs. This paper uses a discrete choice experiment conducted in Sweden in the spring of 2010 to elicit respondents’ willingness to pay to reduce school bullying. Using both non-parametric and parametric approaches the results indicate a (societal) willingness to pay for each reduced statistical victim of bullying of 33 298 to 39,585 Swedish kronor (approx. €3 640 to €4 330). WTP was higher among individuals who reported to have themselves been bullied while in school. The results is a necessary input in order to conduct economic evaluations of antibullying programs and provides policymakers with useful information on taxpayers’ preferred allocations to antibullying programs. |
| Keywords: | Willingness to Pay; Choice Experiment; Bullying; School; Adolescents |
| JEL: | D61 I12 I21 |
| Date: | 2010–11–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2010_016&r=ure |
| By: | E. A. Wentz; D. J. Peuquet |
| Abstract: | There has been much excitement and activity in recent years related to the relatively sudden availability of earth-related data and the computational capabilities to visualize and analyze these data. Despite the increased ability to collect and store large volumes of data, few individual data sets exist that provide both the requisite spatial and temporal observational frequency for many urban and/or regional-scale applications. The motivating view of this paper, however, is that the relative temporal richness of one data set can be leveraged with the relative spatial richness of another to fill in the gaps. We also note that any single interpolation technique has advantages and disadvantages. Particularly when focusing on the spatial or on the temporal dimension, this means that different techniques are more appropriate than others for specific types of data. We therefore propose a space- time interpolation approach whereby two interpolation methods – one for the temporal and one for the spatial dimension – are used in tandem in order to maximize the quality of the result. We call our ensemble approach the Space-Time Interpolation Environment (STIE). The primary steps within this environment include a spatial interpolator, a time-step processor, and a calibration step that enforces phenomenon-related behavioral constraints. The specific interpolation techniques used within the STIE can be chosen on the basis of suitability for the data and application at hand. In the current paper, we describe STIE conceptually including the structure of the data inputs and output, details of the primary steps (the STIE processors), and the mechanism for coordinating the data and the 1 processors. We then describe a case study focusing on urban land cover in Phoenix Arizona. Our empirical results show that STIE was effective as a space-time interpolator for urban land cover with an accuracy of 85.2% and furthermore that it was more effective than a single technique. |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asg:wpaper:7&r=ure |
| By: | Davide Fiaschi; Lisa Gianmoena; Angela Parenti |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the dynamics of labour productivity across Italian Provinces in the period 1995-2006. Inequality decreased but a clear pattern of polarization emerged, with the formation of a cluster of high-productive provinces in the North and Center-West of Italy and a cluster of low-productive provinces in the South and in the Center-East. A core of provinces belonging to ?ve regions (Lombardy, Veneto, Emilia-Romagna, Tuscany and Lazio) appears to bene?t of a higher growth of productivity. This regional component favoured both inequality and polarization, while the initial level of productivity decreased inequality but increased polarization. |
| Keywords: | distribution dynamics, spatial dependence, output composition, entrepreneurial fabric, human capital. |
| JEL: | C21 R11 O47 O52 |
| Date: | 2010–10–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pie:dsedps:2010/105&r=ure |
| By: | Heléne Lundqvist |
| Abstract: | While the literature on how intergovernmental grants affect the budget of receiving jurisdictions is numerous, the very few studies that explicitly deal with likely endogeneity problems focus on grants targeted towards specific sectors or to specific type of recipients. The results from these studies are mixed and make clear that knowledge about grants effects is to this date still insufficient. This paper contributes by estimating causal effects on local expenditures and income tax rates of general, nontargeted grants to Finnish municipalities. This is done in a difference-in-difference model utilizing policy-induced increases in grants to a group of remotely populated municipalities. The robust finding is that increased grants have a negligible effect on local income tax rates, but that there is an immediate one-to-one correspondence between grants and local expenditures. Furthermore, expenditures continue to increase also some time after the grant increase, although this response is estimated less precisely. The flypaper behavior displayed by the treatment group can potentially be explained by ?sepa-rate mental accounting'? ? i.e., voters treating the government budget constraint separately from their own. |
| Keywords: | Intergovernmental grants, difference-in-difference model, fly-paper effect |
| JEL: | H72 C23 H71 R51 H77 |
| Date: | 2010–09–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fer:wpaper:15&r=ure |
| By: | Claus Michelsen; P. Bönisch; Martin T.W. Rosenfeld |
| Abstract: | Institutions are common predictors of voter turnout. Most research in this field focuses on cross-country comparisons of voting systems, like the impact of compulsory voting or registration systems. Fewer efforts have been devoted to understand the role of local institutions and their impact on political participation. Especially the impact of divided competences in relation to public good provision and its impact on voter turnout has been widely ignored. In the present paper, we analyze the effects of different institutional settings for inter-municipal cooperation on voter turnout. We use data from local elections in Germany, held in 2003 and 2004. Overall, we analyze aggregate voter turnout of 1661 municipalities and find strong evidence for our hypothesis that local institutional settings are influential in this context. Further, our results indicate that the better competences correspond to the spatial dimension of local public goods, the higher should be the voter turnout. |
| Keywords: | voter turnout, local institutions, inter-municipal cooperation |
| JEL: | D70 D72 H11 H40 |
| Date: | 2010–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwh:dispap:21-10&r=ure |
| By: | Pierre Lefebvre; Philip Merrigan |
| Abstract: | This paper exploits the panel features of the Canadian National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth (NLSCY) and the large diversity of measures collected on the children and their families over 7 cycles (1994-1995 to 2006-2007) to explain high school graduation (dropout rates) of Canadian youth aged 18 to 23 observed in the most recent wave of the survey. We focus on the gap between females and males which in some provinces is high, particularly in Québec. The econometric approach uses a non-linear Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition technique to identify and quantify the separate contributions of group differences in measurable characteristics (youth attributes and family endowments) to the gender gap in high school graduation rates. We find that the traditional barriers to high school graduation, linked to poverty, are very detrimental for males in Québec. However, we also find that the male-female gap across Canada is very partially explained by differences in endowments such as reading or maths skills in school. Finally, as in other recent studies, our results show that parental expectations about educational attainment are predictors of high school graduation. Public policy approaches for the reduction of the male-female gap are proposed. More radical measures and some experimental approaches (pilot projects) should be adopted in Québec to decrease rapidly the dropout rates and increase high school graduation rates by the age of 18. |
| Keywords: | Longitudinal data, high school dropouts, youth attributes, family endowments, gender gap, non-linear Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition |
| JEL: | I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2010 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:lacicr:1044&r=ure |
| By: | McGranahan, David; Cromartie, John; Wojan, Timothy |
| Abstract: | Population loss through net outmigration is endemic to many rural areas. Over a third of nonmetro counties lost at least 10 percent of their population through net outmigration over 1988-2008. Some of these counties have had very high poverty rates, substantial loss in manufacturing jobs, and high unemployment. Lack of economic opportunity was likely a major factor in their high outmigration. Most high net outmigration counties, however, are relatively prosperous, with low unemployment rates, low high school dropout rates, and average household incomes. For these counties, low population density and less appealing landscapes distinguish them from other nonmetro counties. Both types of outmigration counties stand out on two measures, indicating that quality-of-life factors inhibit inmigration: a lack of retirees moving in and local manufacturers citing the areaâs unattractiveness as a problem in recruiting managers and professionals. |
| Keywords: | Migration, net migration, rural development, life-cycle migration, population growth, nonmetropolitan, nonmetro, rural economy, metro, rural America, census data, population growth, demographics, ERS, USDA, Community/Rural/Urban Development, |
| Date: | 2010–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:uersrr:96769&r=ure |
| By: | Behrenz, Lars (Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO)) |
| Abstract: | This study is about elite sports in Sweden. There are a lot of ways of studying the economic value of elite sports. In this article we use information from population data, club accounting and a questionnaire to get a picture of the economic values of elite sports. Our knowledge from earlier research concerning the economic value of elite sports is mainly based on US data. The Scandinavian model for sport is different from sports in the USA since the clubs are not owned by businesses and the goals are more or less “sport for all”. This paper tries to present a picture of the process of elite sports in countries there elite sports traditionally has been a mixture between professional and amateur. The results from willingness to pay analysis for the presence of elite sports in the actual county indicate values of 350 SEK (about 35 EURO) per year and person in Sweden. Another way of calculating the value of the elite teams is by estimating how many working hours people are prepared to devote to helping the club. If these hours are translated into economic values, it runs into between 3000 to 5000 SEK (about 300 to 500 EURO) per year and person, depending on location in Sweden |
| Keywords: | Cost–Benefit Analysis; Regional economic development; |
| JEL: | D61 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2010–11–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vxcafo:2010_008&r=ure |
| By: | André De Palma (ENS Cachan - Ecole Normale Supérieure de Cachan - École normale supérieure de Cachan - ENS Cachan, Department of Economics, Ecole Polytechnique - CNRS : UMR7176 - Polytechnique - X); Mogens Fosgerau (DTU Transport - University of Denmark - Department of Transport) |
| Abstract: | We begin by providing an overview of the conventional static equilibrium approach. In such model both the flow of trips and congestion delay are assumed to be constant. A drawback of the static model is that the time interval during which travel occurs is not specified so that the model cannot describe changes in the duration of congestion that result from changes in demand or capacity. This limitation is overcome in the Vickrey/Arnott, de Palma Lindsey bottleneck model, which combines congestion in the form of queuing behind a bottleneck with users' trip-timing preferences and departure time decisions. We derive the user equilibrium and social optimum for the basic bottleneck model, and explain how the optimum can be decentralized using a time-varying toll. They then review some extensions of the basic model that encompass elastic demand, user heterogeneity, stochastic demand and capacity and small networks. We conclude by identifying some unresolved modelling issues that apply not only to the bottleneck model but to trip-timing preferences and congestion dynamics in general |
| Date: | 2010–11–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00539166_v1&r=ure |
| By: | Maurizio Iacopetta (Observatoire Français des Conjonctures Économiques) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I examine the transitional dynamics of an economy populated by individuals who split their time between acquiring a formal education, producing final goods, and innovating. The paper has two objectives: (i) uncovering the macroeconomic circumstances that favored the rise of formal education; (ii) to reconcile the remarkable growth of the education sector with the constancy of other key macroeconomic variables, such as the interest rate, the consumption-output ratio, and the growth rate of per capita income (Kaldor facts). The transitional dynamics of human capital growth models, such as Lucas (1988), would attribute the arrival of education to the diminishing marginal productivity of physical capital. Conversely, the model proposed here suggests that it is the rate of learning that catches up with the rate of return on physical capital. As technical knowledge expands, the rate of return on education increases, and this induces individuals to stay longer in school. The model's transitional paths are matched with long run U.S. educational and economic data. |
| Keywords: | Public Knowledge, Learning Rate, Transitional Dynamics, Calibration. JEL codes: J24, N30, O33. |
| Date: | 2010–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fce:doctra:1033&r=ure |
| By: | Månsson, Jonas (Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO)); Delander, Lennart (Centre for Labour Market Policy Research (CAFO)) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this article is to analyse the impact of human capital variables on the probability for young people of being included in and excluded from the labour market. Of special interest is to study the causal effects of having immigrant background, controlling for other individual characteristics such as age, sex, education, being breadwinner, parental income, and parental employment. The research questions are investigated by using data from Statistics Sweden on young people’s sources and levels of income. The population consists of 18–24 year olds in the county of Kronoberg in southern Sweden. The period covered by the study is 1997–2007. We estimate the impact of individual characteristics by means of both panel data analysis and cross-section analysis. We find that there is a strong association between not having completed compulsory school and being excluded from the labour market. When control-ling for other human capital variables we can not, however, argue that being immigrant or having immigrant parents considerably increases the probability of labour market exclusion. On the other hand, our results clearly testify that having foreign-born parents reduces the probability of being included in the labour market. It can be assumed that this is a consequence of young people with immigrant parents being disadvantaged compared to native youth as regards access to a social network that can be benefited from in the job search proc-ess. Thus, immigrant background chiefly is an obstacle to being included in the Swedish labour market and of less importance for the risk of labour market exclusion. In the respects mentioned here, the results of the panel data analysis corresponds qualitatively with those of the cross-section analysis. |
| Keywords: | Human capital; Immigration; Labour market inclusion; |
| JEL: | E24 |
| Date: | 2010–11–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vxcafo:2010_003&r=ure |