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on Tourism Economics |
| By: | NYONI, THABANI |
| Abstract: | “Incredible !ndia”, is India’s tourism maxim. Using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA approach, this study will attempt to examine the validity and suitability of this maxim. Does tourism data conform to this mind-blowing motto? Is India really incredible? What are the subsequent policy directions? The study uses annual time series data covering the period 1981 to 2017. Using annual time series data, ranging over the period 1981 to 2017, the study applied the general ARIMA technique in order to model and forecast tourist arrivals in India. The ADF tests indicate that the foreign tourists arrivals series in I (2). The study, based on the minimum MAPE value, finally presented the ARIMA (2, 2, 5) model as the appropriate model to forecast foreign tourist arrivals in India. Analysis of the residuals of the ARIMA (2, 2, 5) model indicate that the selected model is stable and appropriate for forecasting foreign tourist arrivals in India. The forecasted foreign tourist arrivals over the period 2018 to 2028 show a sharp upward trend. This proves beyond any reasonable doubt that indeed in India is incredible – tourists all over the world are expected to continue flowing to India because India is just incredible! Surely, tourism data conforms to the motto “Atithidevo Bhava”. The study boasts of three policy directions that are envisioned to add more positive changes in India’s tourism sector. |
| Keywords: | ARIMA; forecasting; foreign tourist arrivals; India; tourism |
| JEL: | L83 |
| Date: | 2019–11–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:96909&r=all |
| By: | Rapanna, Patta |
| Abstract: | This Type Of Research Through Kualitati Approach Of Phenomenology, As Results Showed That Tourism In The Recently Developed In The Various Dimensions Of The Purpose Of Such A Nature Tourism/Nautical Tourism, Cultural (Tangible: The Site, Religious Buildings, Temples, Historical Buildings, Traditional Buildings, Museums; Intangible: Send ratasik, Customs, Cultural Values), Culinary Tourism, Sport Tourism, Health Tourism, Tourism Education, Agro Tourism, Tourism, Religious Tourism, Etc, For It Requires The Development Of Tourism Policy Support Of Various Components I.e. The Elements Of Government, Private Sector, Academia And The Public At Large. |
| Date: | 2018–02–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:inarxi:5ayft&r=all |