| By: |
Onil Banerjee;
Martin Cicowiez;
Sebastien Gachot |
| Abstract: |
This study develops a linked regional computable general equilibrium and
micro-simulation (RCGE-MS) model to assess the regional economy-wide and
poverty impacts of a US$36 million investment in tourism in the south of
Haiti. The first social accounting matrix for Haiti with a base year of
2012/2013 was constructed to calibrate the model. This research addresses
three key gaps identified in the tourism impact assessment literature. First,
a destination-specific tourism demand and value chain analysis was used to
calibrate the shocks implemented in the model. Second, the RCGE-MS approach
moves beyond the representative household configuration to enable more robust
analysis of tourism investment impacts on poverty and income inequality.
Third, results of this modelling were used to inform a social cost-benefit
analysis to provide greater transparency in the evaluation of trade-offs
between investment alternatives. Results of this analysis showed a positive
impact on sectoral activity, especially for the hotel and restaurant sector
(182.1% in 2040) and a 2.0% increase in Gross Regional Product by 2040. The
South's exports fell 4.7% below baseline and imports were 6.1% higher due to
the inflow of foreign exchange, the appreciation of the regional real exchange
rate, increased demand for most goods and services, and limited regional
productive capacity. The rate of unemployment fell from 26% to 23%. The
investment helped lift some of the region¿s poorest out of poverty, reducing
the poverty headcount by 1.6 percentage points. Driving this result was an
increase in employment, wages and non-labor income. The linked RCGE-MS
approach proves to be a powerful tool for assessing how tourism investments
affect regional economic activity and revealing the mechanisms through which
tourism can contribute to increased employment opportunities and poverty
reduction. |
| Keywords: |
Impact evaluation, Tourism, Rural & Urban Development, Public Sector, Computable General Equilibrium, Tourism Investment, Regional Welfare, Poverty, International Investment, Benefit Cost |
| Date: |
2015–08 |
| URL: |
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:91317&r=tur |