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on Tourism Economics |
| By: | Chia-Lin Chang (National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan); Hui-Kuang Hsu (National Pingtung Institute of Commerce, Taiwan); Michael McAleer (National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan, Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands, and Complutense University of Madrid, Spain) |
| Abstract: | This paper uses monthly data from April 2005 to August 2013 for Taiwan to propose a novel tourism indicator, namely the Tourism Conditions Index (TCI). TCI accounts for the spillover weights based on the Granger causality test and estimates of the multivariate BEKK model for four TCI indicators to predict specific tourism and economic environmental indicators for Taiwan. The foundation of the TCI is the Financial Conditions Index (FCI), which is derived from the Monetary Conditions Index (MCI). The empirical findings show that TCI weighted by spillovers reveal greater significance in forecasting the Composite Index (CI), an economic environmental indicator, than the Tourism Industry Index (TII), which is an existing indicator for the tourism industry that is listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE). Moreover, previous values of the alternative TCI and TII are shown to contain useful information in predicting both tourism and economic environmental factors. Overall, the new Tourism Conditions Index is straightforward to use and also provides useful insights in predicting tourism arrivals and the current economic environment. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Conditions Index (MCI), Financial Conditions Index (FCI), Tourism Conditions Index (TCI), BEKK, Spillovers, Granger causality |
| JEL: | B41 E44 E47 G32 |
| Date: | 2014–01–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20140007&r=tur |
| By: | Bart Neuts (KU Leuven, Belgium); Joao Romao (VU University Amsterdam); Peter Nijkamp (VU University Amsterdam); Eveline van Leeuwen (VU University Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Innovations in information and communication technologies (ICT) in recent decades have had profound implications for tourism services, promotion, or distribution. We apply a Structural Equations Model (SEM) to analyse the relationships between the characteristics of tourists visiting Amsterdam, the importance they attach to different kinds of information contents available on the Internet, and the actual performance of the city as a tourism destination, measured by the expenditures and the duration of stay of the visitors. Findings indicate that the choice of e-services depends on the travel motive, age, education, income, gender, nationality, and length of stay. Furthermore, use of e-forums and virtual tours was found to significantly affect local expenditure. |
| Keywords: | ICT, Internet, mediatisation, destination, tourism performance |
| JEL: | C51 M31 L83 |
| Date: | 2013–09–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20130138&r=tur |
| By: | Jorge Ridderstaat (Centrale Bank van Aruba, Aruba, Dutch Caribbean); Peter Nijkamp (VU University Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Seasonality is a frequent and important occurrence in the tourism industry, with simultaneous effects on both the volume and financial flows of tourism. The seasonal characteristics of these monetary and non-monetary tourism indicators can show diverging paths. Lack of synchronization between the seasonal patterns of these two types of indicators of tourism development can produce suboptimal situations, with less than best choices when formulating and implementing anti-seasonal policies. The purpose of this study is to measure pattern, amplitude and timing differences between the seasonal factors of monetary and non-monetary indicators of tourism development in Aruba. The study contributes to the gap in the literature on the dynamics in the co-movement of these two types of seasonal factors, while concurrently incorporating three measurement dimensions of this relation. Moreover, the study introduces novel calculation techniques in two of the three measurement dimensions. The methodology involves decomposing time series on both monetary and non-monetary variables using Census X12-ARIMA, with subsequent calculation of Pearson’s correlation coefficients, median relative differences, and median timing differentials. The results show important quarterly differences in pattern, amplitude and timing of the seasonal factors, in terms of the applied timeframe, periodicity, variables and markets involved. The findings implicate the need for synchronizing strategies and a differentiated anti-seasonal policy. |
| Keywords: | seasonality, Aruba, seasonal patterns, amplitude, timing, monetary and non-monetary tourism indicators |
| JEL: | O11 C13 O29 Y10 Z18 |
| Date: | 2013–08–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20130116&r=tur |
| By: | Chia-Lin Chang (National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan); Hui-Kuang Hsu (National Pingtung Institute of Commerce, Taiwan); Michael McAleer (National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan; Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Complutense University of Madrid, Spain) |
| Abstract: | The paper uses monthly data on financial stock index returns, tourism stock sub-index returns, effective exchange rate returns and interest rate differences from April 2005 – August 2013 for Taiwan that applies Chang’s (2014) novel approach for constructing a tourism financial indicator, namely the Tourism Financial Conditions Index (TFCI). The TFCI is an adaptation and extension of the widely-used Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) and Financial Conditions Index (FCI) to tourism stock data. However, the method of calculation of the TFCI is different from existing methods of constructing the MCI and FCI in that the weights are estimated empirically. The empirical findings show that TFCI is estimated quite accurately using the estimated conditional mean of the tourism stock index returns. The new TFCI is straightforward to use and interpret, and provides interesting insights in predicting the current economic and financial environment for tourism stock index returns that are based on publicly available information. In particular, the use of market returns on the tourism stock index as the sole indicator of the tourism sector, as compared with the general activity of economic variables on tourism stocks, is shown to provide an exaggerated and excessively volatile explanation of tourism financial conditions. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Conditions Index, Financial Conditions Index, Model-based Tourism Financial Conditions Index, Unbiased Estimation |
| JEL: | B41 E44 E47 G32 |
| Date: | 2014–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20140060&r=tur |
| By: | Eveline van Leeuwen (VU University Amsterdam); Karima Kourtit (VU University Amsterdam); Peter Nijkamp (VU University Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the question of the value attached by residents of tourist places to the wealth of cultural heritage in their city. Particular attention is given to the impact of various types of information (ranging from traditional to advanced ICT sources) on the residents’ valuation of cultural heritage. Based on an extensive survey among inhabitants of Amsterdam, a two-stage analytical approach is adopted: (i) an econometric (ordered logit) modelling approach to identify the most prominent vectors of the residents’ appreciation of cultural heritage; (ii) a micro-simulation modelling approach to generate a comprehensive picture of the value set of inhabitants regarding the cultural heritage in their city. This information may also serve as a basis for urban strategies on tourism policy, cultural heritage planning and information services management. |
| Keywords: | Cultural Heritage, Residents, Tourism, Ordered Logit Model, Microsimulation, ICT, Amsterdam |
| JEL: | L83 |
| Date: | 2013–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20130103&r=tur |
| By: | Jorge Ridderstaat (Central Bank of Aruba, The Netherlands); Robertico Croes (University of Central Florida, United States of America); Peter Nijkamp (VU University Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | See also the article 'Tourism and Long-run Economic Growth in Aruba' in the <I>International Journal of Tourism Research (2014). Volume 16, issue 5, pages 472-487.<P> Tourism has over the past decades turned into a core activity for accelerated growth. The purpose of this study is to determine the role of tourism in the economy of Aruba. More specifically, this investigation attempts to answer the following questions: (1) is there is a long-run equilibrium relation between tourism development (TD) and economic growth in Aruba?; and (2) if so, what is the causality direction between TD and economic growth? This exercise involves applying an econometric methodology consisting of unit root testing, cointegration analysis, vector error correction modeling (VECM), and Granger causality testing. The results show there is one cointegrating relation between these two variables, while the VECM comprises both a short- and a long-run relation. The short-run dynamics of the model suggests a speed of correction of 0.25%, meaning that it would take about 10.5 years to correct for disturbances back to equilibrium. The long-run relation indicates that a 1% change in tourism revenues would lead to a 0.49% increase in real GDP in the long-run, ceteris paribus. Our findings have also empirically verified the presence of the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis (TLGH) in the case of Aruba. They show that tourism is in part an endogenous growth process, requiring a systematic allocation of resources (e.g., financial means, leadership, creativity, innovation, and entrepreneurship) to sustain its development for local and regional economies. |
| Keywords: | endogenous growth, tourism development, economic growth, sustainability, Aruba, tourism receipts, gross domestic product, unit root, cointegration, VECM, Granger causality |
| JEL: | O4 |
| Date: | 2013–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20130145&r=tur |
| By: | Chia-Lin Chang (National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan); Hui-Kuang Hsu (National Pingtung Institute of Commerce, Taiwan); Michael McAleer (National Tsing Hua University, Hsinchu, Taiwan, Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands, and Complutense University of Madrid, Spain) |
| Abstract: | This discussion paper resulted in a publication in <I>The North American Journal of Economics and Finance</I> (2014). Volume 29(C), pages 381-401.<P> This paper investigates the stock returns and volatility size effects for firm performance in the Taiwan tourism industry, especially the impacts arising from the tourism policy reform that allowed mainland Chinese tourists to travel to Taiwan. Four conditional univariate GARCH models are used to estimate the volatility in the stock indexes for large and small firms in Taiwan. Daily data from 30 November 2001 to 27 February 2013 are used, which covers the period of Cross-Straits tension between China and Taiwan. The full sample period is divided into two subsamples, namely prior to and after the policy reform that encouraged Chinese tourists to Taiwan. The empirical findings confirm that there have been important changes in the volatility size effects for firm performance, regardless of firm size and estimation period. Furthermore, the risk premium reveals insignificant estimates in both time periods, while asymmetric effects are found to exist only for large firms after the policy reform. The empirical findings should be useful for financial managers and policy analysts as it provides insight into the magnitude of the volatility size effects for firm performance, how it can vary with firm size, the impacts arising from the industry policy reform, and how firm size is related to financial risk management strategy. |
| Keywords: | Tourism, firm size, stock returns, conditional volatility models, volatility size effects, asymmetry, tourism policy reform |
| JEL: | C22 G18 G28 G32 L83 |
| Date: | 2013–08–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20130118&r=tur |
| By: | Bart Neuts (KU Leuven, Belgium); João Romão (VU University Amsterdam); Eveline van Leeuwen (VU University Amsterdam); Peter Nijkamp (VU University Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | See the article in <I>Tourism Economics</I> (2013). Volume 19, Issue 5, pages 987-1004.<P> As a result of advances in ICT-services, transportation, and local development, among others, an increasing number of destinations is competing to attract both national and international visitors. Globalisation requires destinations to increase their competitiveness or risk losing out on tourist revenues. While the research into destination competitiveness and tourist loyalty is well founded, recent progress in e-services has opened new opportunities for informing and attracting visitors. This paper examines the potential effects of e-services in an inclusive model of destination loyalty towards the city of Leipzig (Germany). The results of the path analysis indicate possibilities for e-services to increase both satisfaction and loyalty, especially with regard to a number of tourist subgroups. |
| Keywords: | Loyalty, E-services, ICT, Satisfaction, Destination Management |
| JEL: | L83 L86 |
| Date: | 2013–10–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20130164&r=tur |
| By: | Srabani Roy Choudhury (School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University) |
| Abstract: | Two policy decisions motivated this paper. One, a Japanese Government policy to increase the number of visitors to Japan by 30 million; and the other, growing India- Japan relations where emphasizes on ‘People to People Exchange’ is increasingly gaining significance. While conducting preliminary investigation on this subject, it was realized that India’s growing middle class which is the main driver for consumption was being focused on by Japan as a single group and not being considered as segmented entities. Further, the approaches of Japanese tourist agencies towards attracting Indian tourists were similar to that of western tourists. Thus this paper first discusses the changes in decision making pattern in Indian middle class families and why the relevant target group is top 3% of the pyramid. The study then ventures, through an online questionnaire, into understanding what motivates foreign destination tourism among this 3% of Indian consumers. Compilation of data showed certain contradictions to popular beliefs. To gain clarity, the research used relevant cases from among the respondent group. The findings of this research suggests that for Japan to be the choice of destination for Indian tourists, it is critical to recognize that the needs of Indian tourists differ substantially from that of the western world, and projecting that Japan is ready to meet those needs is essential. |
| Keywords: | Indian Middle Class Segmentation, Indian Consumer's Decision Making, Indian Consumer's Tourism Desires, Attracting Indian Tourist to Japan |
| JEL: | M31 O53 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2015-13&r=tur |
| By: | Ruben van Loon (VU University Amsterdam); Tom Gosens (VU University Amsterdam); Jan Rouwendal (VU University Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Many cities are trying to attract tourists by investing in urban amenities. Cultural heritage is an important example and substantial investments are needed to keep ancient inner cities and characteristic monumental buildings in good shape. The costs of these policies are usually clear, the benefits are often much more difficult to assess. This paper attempts to fill part of this gap by studying the destination choices of urban recreation trips that have urban recreation as the main travel motive. We estimate a discrete choice model for destination choice that takes into account the potential importance of unobserved characteristics. The model allows us to compute the marginal willingness to travel for destinations offering more cultural heritage, which we measure as the area of the inner city that has a protected status because of the cultural heritage that is present there. |
| Keywords: | Cultural heritage, recreation, city marketing |
| JEL: | C31 D12 R12 R22 L83 |
| Date: | 2014–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20140049&r=tur |
| By: | Bart Neuts (KU Leuven, Belgium); Peter Nijkamp (VU University Amsterdam); Eveline van Leeuwen (VU University Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Popular urban tourist destinations are attracting large numbers of both overnight visitors and excursionists. Since urban cities perform a multitude of functions, the space requirements of tourists can, at times, interfere with those of local users. This paper addresses the issue of disutilities of space congestion through a dichotomous choice experiment model in order to offer a monetary valuation of tourist crowding in urban public space. A resident survey was carried out in the city of Amsterdam in order to estimate a random parameter logit model through which the residents’ willingness to pay to avoid unfavourable crowding situations can be assessed. Their willingness to pay in order to increase the use levels by visitors in the Dam area from ‘not at all crowded’ or ‘not crowded’ to ‘crowded’ was respectively €1.36 and €0.83 annually, while the mean willingness to pay for a decline in the use level from ‘very crowded’ to ‘crowded’ was estimated to be €11.06 a year. While tourism is only partly responsible for these crowding levels, the results demonstrate that the social effects of tourist consumption can be positive as well as negative, depending on the existing use level and attitudinal perceptions of residents. |
| Keywords: | public space, crowding, externalities, choice experiments, tourism, willingness to pay |
| JEL: | P25 |
| Date: | 2013–09–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20130146&r=tur |