|
on Transport Economics |
| By: | Kendall, Alissa; Parés Olguín, Francisco |
| Abstract: | International second-hand vehicle (SHV) exports are a multi-billion-dollar market for the US and an integral process in removing older vehicles from the road and enabling a robust new vehicle market. Mexico is the largest importer of SHVs from the US. As the US rapidly increases electric vehicle (EV) sales to meet decarbonization targets for the transportation sector, EVs will be an increasing large fraction of SHVs. While the benefits of EV adoption are numerous, introducing a radically new technology such as EVs without responsive measures in second-hand market regions may lead to an unintended transfer of economic and environmental burdens, especially if waste EV batteries cannot be managed properly. This research undertook a battery material flow analysis, life cycle assessment of SHVs traded from the US to Mexico, and a qualitive analysis of environmental and transport justice implications of SHV trade. The research finds that SHVs disproportionately contribute to waste battery generation in Mexico, and that second-hand EVs are frequently retired early due to a lack of repairability. In terms of life cycle emissions, SH EVs still contribute to reduced GHG emissions and air pollution relative to internal combustion engine vehicles newly sold in Mexico, but at end-of-life, their batteries are being disposed of in landfills, rather than in recycling facilities. From a justice standpoint, coordination between the US and Mexico and anticipatory policies are needed to ensure that only EVs with sufficient remaining battery life are transferred between the US and Mexico, and that sufficient infrastructure exists to safely dispose of waste EV batteries in Mexico. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Business, Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Second-Hand vehicles, electric vehicles, LCA, battery recycling, critical battery minerals, LMICs, Mexico |
| Date: | 2024–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt7cf8785q |
| By: | Handy, Susan; Volker, Jamey |
| Abstract: | The “induced travel” effect is a net increase in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) across the roadway network due to an increase in roadway capacity. Adding capacity can increase the average travel speed on the roadway (at least initially), increase travel time reliability, and make driving on the roadway appear safer or feel less stressful. It might also provide access to previously inaccessible areas. All of these effects reduce the perceived “cost” of driving. And when the cost of driving goes down, the quantity of driving goes up. Accounting for induced travel in transportation planning is important from the standpoint of accurately assessing both the benefits and costs of projects that expand roadway capacity. This brief summarizes the robust empirical evidence on the magnitude of the induced travel effect and discusses the limitations of travel demand forecasting models in fully capturing the effect. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Calculators, Traffic forecasting, Travel demand, Vehicle miles of travel |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0kj840w2 |
| By: | Pascal Heid; Kevin Remmy; Mathias Reynaert |
| Abstract: | The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) shifts the complementary market for passenger transport from oil to electricity. We develop and estimate a joint equilibrium model of the German electricity and automobile markets, emphasizing the timing of EV charging, as electricity generation costs and pollution vary intraday. Our results show that under Germany’s current electricity pricing scheme, EVs create a significant pecuniary externality: electricity expenses rise by €0.66 for every €1 spent charging. Exposing charging to wholesale price variation eliminates the pecuniary externality, makes EVs greener, and increases adoption—a triple dividend. |
| Keywords: | electric vehicles, electricity markets, charging, complementary markets |
| JEL: | L5 L6 L9 Q4 Q5 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2024_615 |
| By: | Zhang, Michael; Musabbir, Sarder Rafee |
| Abstract: | Highway speed limits are increasing across the United States. There is also a national trend toward uniform speed limits, within states, for both passenger vehicles and trucks. California is one of only seven remaining states that sets different speed limits, with lower speed limits for trucks than passenger vehicles. While higher speed limits provide operational benefits by shortening travel times and fostering economic benefits—especially for the trucking and logistics industries—they can also increase the likelihood and severity of crashes since higher vehicle speeds require longer stopping distances and generate more energy during a collision. |
| Keywords: | Engineering |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt4zv3p5x6 |
| By: | Schukei, Harry; Rowangould, Dana |
| Abstract: | Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation poses a significant challenge in rural communities and at the edges of metropolitan areas where rural and urban populations meet, otherwise known as exurban fringe. Populations living in these areas rely more heavily on personal vehicle travel than nonrural populations do and are more likely to have trouble getting to and from important destinations. One approach to curtailing transportation GHG emissions is through land use planning, for example by directing population growth into compact, walkable communities with access to transit. However, nearly all research to date on this topic has focused on urban and suburban areas, leaving decision-makers in exurban and rural communities with little guidance for how to effectively reduce GHGs through changes to land use and development in their communities. Researchers at the University of Vermont sought to answer the question: is the relationship between travel and the built environment the same in urban and rural areas? They analyzed nationwide data from the United States Federal Highway Administration on nearly 110, 000 people and detailed information on land use and development from the United States Environmental Protection Agency Smart Location Database. They determined what aspects of the built environment in different types of locations (urban, rural, etc.) were associated with sustainable travel behaviors such as greater rates of walking and biking, less reliance on automobile travel, and fewer vehicle miles traveled or VMT, which is the number of miles driven in a car. This policy brief summarizes the findings from that research and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Built environment, travel behavior, VMT, mode choice, rural |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt85d2f9d5 |
| By: | Kim, Keuntae; Byrd, Daniel; Handy, Susan |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this literature review is to assess what is currently known about the ability of travel demand forecasting models (TDMs) to provide accurate forecasts for different types of transportation plans and projects with respect to different outcome measures of interest. The role of TDMs in assessing the implications of highway expansions for vehicle miles of travel (VMT) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is of particular interest given the current regulatory context. Relevant studies for this review were found using a variety of search terms in the Transport Research International Documentation (TRID) database and Google Scholar. The report reviewed the available studies with respect to the themes of limitations of the models, validity testing and sensitivity testing, and VMT forecasting. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Travel demand forecasting, travel demand models, induced travel |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt20v0f1r8 |
| By: | Espeland, Sierra; LanzDuret-Hernandez, Julia; Rowangould, Dana; Grajdura, Sarah |
| Abstract: | Transportation systems provide vital connections to essential destinations including jobs, healthcare services, education, and recreational opportunities. However, people living in rural communities face unique transportation challenges, including greater distances to destinations and few high quality transportation options. Barriers to mobility can lead to transportation burdens, such as high transportation costs or unmet transportation needs—whereby trips cannot be made. These transportation burdens can adversely affect well-being. Differences between rural and nonrural areas in the built environment and population characteristics are well documented and studied. However, little is known about the differences in who experiences transportation burdens in rural versus nonrural areas, the factors that drive these differences, and how to improve mobility and access in rural populations. Researchers from the University of Vermont analyzed national survey data on transportation burdens. Then, guided by a community advisory board, the researchers interviewed two groups of Vermont residents with limited or no access to a vehicle: 42 people living in small and rural communities and 14 Latin American migrant workers. The interviews focused on transportation experiences and barriers to mobility. This policy brief summarizes the findings from that research and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Transport disadvantage, unmet need, rural, carless, migrant |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt26j5r1w5 |
| By: | Rowangould, Gregory; Ahmadnia, Narges; Nelson, Clare; Quallen, Erica; Clarke, Julia |
| Abstract: | Smaller and rural communities are often automobile dependent, a fact that has raised considerable concerns about the equity and effectiveness of market-based climate strategies including carbon taxes and carbon cap and trade schemes in rural states like Vermont. A lack of research and data describing how people in smaller and rural communities respond to changes in transportation costs is a critical gap to informing the design of market-based greenhouse gas mitigation policies and evaluating their potential outcomes. This report describes several related studies that focus on understanding the opportunities and constraints that people face in changing how they travel in small and rural communities in Vermont and also evaluates the equity implications of gas tax alternatives. The research is informed by data collected by the researcher team from interviews, surveys and unique administrative datasets. Findings show that urban, suburban, and rural households all made significant travel adjustments in response to higher gas prices. Urban households were more likely to substitute their mode of transportation or move, and rural households were more likely to adopt an electric vehicle (EV); however, most people in all community types were able to reduce the amount they travel by making fewer or shorter trips. Greater accessibility and more transit options were noted as barriers to change in all communities studied. Significant concerns about the feasibility of EVs were common and also shared across all communities. Overall, these findings suggest that market-based climate policies could be effective, even in smaller and rural communities. The authors also find that many people misunderstand how the gas tax is collected and what it funds, resulting in widely held beliefs that a mileage base fee alternative would be unfair, particularly to rural households. Using motor vehicle registration and inspection records, the researchers demonstrate that a mileage based user fee would be somewhat less regressive than the current gas tax and also less costly than the gas tax to rural households on average in Vermont. They also find that providing simple, factual, information about the gas tax and alternatives can significantly shift public support for gas tax alternatives in Northern New England. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Travel behavior, rural, travel cost, mode choice, mileage fee |
| Date: | 2024–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt03w2v8h7 |
| By: | Handy, Susan; Kim, Keuntae; Byrd, Daniel |
| Abstract: | The goal of this project was to assess the capabilities of the travel demand forecasting models (TDMs) used by California’s metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) with respect to forecasting the increase in vehicle miles of travel induced by highway capacity expansion. An expert panel assisted with the development of review questions to be used in assessing the models. These questions were used to assess each of the models currently used by the eighteen MPOs in California based on information found in readily available documents. The assessment found that seven MPOs are using activity-basedmodels, nine are using four-step, trip-based models, and two are using hybrid models. In general, the activity-based models do a better job of capturing possible induced travel effects. Only one model includes explicit feedback between the transportation system and land use patterns. The readily-available documentation of travel demand forecasting models in California is insufficient for fully understanding the variables included in each model component and the structure of feedbacks between components of the models. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Travel demand forecasting, travel demand models, induced travel |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt0wc735mj |
| By: | Klein, Alexander (University of Sussex, UK, CAGE, CEPR); Matthews, Peter (University of Kent) |
| Abstract: | We construct county-to-county transport cost data set for each decade between 1820 and 1860 in the United States using time-, region-, and direction of transport specific freight rates and the historical transport networks. We document several stylized facts about the effects of canals and railways on the average county-to-county transport cost, market access, and the role of new transportation network in the shaping the direction of domestic trade. We show that by 1860, the canals and railways led to the shift of the highest market access region from the Atlantic coast and Mississippi region to the Midwest and the Great Lakes region, and their absence would have increased the transport costs by more than sixty percent in the Northeast and by almost fifty percent in the South. In addition, by 1840, canals had substantially lowered the costs of transporting goods from the Midwest to the east, making the northern route cheaper than the original route via the Mississippi River and the Atlantic coast. |
| Keywords: | transportation, canals, early railways, freight costs, market access JEL Classification: N71, N91, R40 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cge:wacage:736 |
| By: | Filani, Iyanuoluwa; Butt, Ali A; Harvey, John T; Fulton, Lewis M |
| Abstract: | The goal of this study was to develop a framework and first order estimate of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the build-out and maintenance and rehabilitation of the world’s roadway infrastructure networks from 2020 to 2050. The GHG emissions from road pavement emissions, bridges, and maintenance and rehabilitation were calculated by decade based on the existing road networks and the modelling of their expansion. For comparison, the GHG emissions from vehicle manufacture and operation were estimated. Regional comparisons and sensitivity analyses were then performed. Based on one mid-range scenario, GHG emissions from new road construction account for roughly 0.1 to 4% of regional road transportation GHG emissions depending on the region; existing road maintenance accounts for 0.32 to 3%; vehicle manufacturing for 4 to 13% of regional GHG emissions; vehicle operation accounts for 82% to 93% of regional GHG emissions; and road roughness is responsible for approximately 2% of the total system impacts. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, transportation sector, global warming, global road networks, benchmark, road infrastructure |
| Date: | 2024–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt85s1v4pg |
| By: | Fan, Huiying; Lu, Hongyu; Guin, Angshuman; Guensler, Randall |
| Abstract: | A previous National Center for Sustainable Transportation (NCST) study examined pandemic-related changes in MARTA transit system service and ridership in Atlanta, GA, and the combined effects on energy use and per-passenger energy use (Fan, et al., 2022). For that previous study, General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) and the Automated Passenger Counter (APC) datasets were used to develop the transit network and derive distance and passenger load information within the TransitSim analytical framework. The research coupled ridership data with energy use and emission rates from MOVES-Matrix to assess how the changes in transit service and ridership affected energy use and emissions on a per passenger-mile basis. Research performed in this supplemental NCST study improved model algorithms to increase analytical efficiency and to integrate ridership demographics, so that energy use impacts could be assessed across demographic groups for use in social sustainability analysis. This report summarizes improvements that generated TransitSim 3.0 and provides a social sustainability modeling demonstration. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Transit service, transit energy use, transit ridership, transit demographics, social sustainability analysis |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3171b0j4 |
| By: | Järnberg, Linda Andersson; Andrén, Daniela; Börjesson, Maria; Hultkrantz, Lars; Rutström, Eva E.; Vimefall, Elin |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes how the willingness to pay (WTP) for a risk reduction for traffic accidents varies depending on the specific traffic safety measures and whether they are framed as public or private goods. Building on previous studies, we designed and conducted a contingent valuation survey targeting a representative sample of the Swedish population, assessing WTP for eight different measures aimed at increasing the safety of vulnerable road users. Our findings reveal that while keeping the risk reduction constant, WTP is higher for well-established traffic safety measures, such as anti-slip treatments and improved lighting. Conversely, new technologies, like mobile apps and sensors, elicit lower WTP. However, respondents express a higher WTP when these technological measures are provided as a public good. These results suggest that acceptance and perceived reliability of the measures significantly influence WTP. The findings have important implications for cost-benefit analyses and evidence-based policymaking in transportation safety, particularly regarding the implementation of new technology in road safety infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | traffic safety, willingness to pay, public good, private good, infrastructure, bicyclists and pedestrians, interval regression |
| JEL: | R41 D12 H41 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1538 |
| By: | Lu, Hongyu; Liu, Haobing; Rodgers, Michael O; Guensler, Randall |
| Abstract: | In this study, a modeling framework for population exposure to traffic-related PM2.5 with high spatiotemporal resolution is proposed and applied to the I-575/I-75 Northwest Corridor (NWC) in Atlanta, GA, for environmental equity analysis. The analyses retrieved trip data from the Atlanta Regional Commission’s (ARC) Activity-Based Model 2020 (ABM2020), after implementing path retention algorithms (Zhao, et al., 2019) to generate individual travel paths for more than 20 million predicted vehicle trips. Emission rates for each link were retrieved from MOVES-Matrix given the ABM link speed and facility type, the ARC’s county-level fleet composition data, and regional fuel properties and I&M program parameters. High-resolution downwind concentration profiles were predicted using EPA’s AERMOD microscale dispersion model with AERMET meteorology profiles for a huge array of receptors. Trip-end locations were derived from the ABM trip data, and the on-road trajectories for each person-trip (vehicle trace data) were derived from the travel paths through network. ABM synthetic household and person data were used in demographic assessment, and linked to representative household latitude and longitude locations in the Epsilon 2019 household demographic dataset. Individual exposure to traffic-related PM2.5 in time and space (average hourly concentration) was assessed by overlaying the second-by-second person location profiles (for 24 hours) against the hourly predicted PM2.5 concentration profiles. The analyses summarize the results across 16 demographic groups and the aggregate population exposure are compared to assess potential impact differences across demographics. High-income households in the corridor were exposed to less traffic-related air pollution as they tended to live further from the freeways. The analyses did not reveal large disproportionate negative impacts on low income groups along this specific corridor, but lager disproportionate negative impacts are expected elsewhere in the metro area due to the spatial clustering of income groups along other corridors. Overall, the research demonstrates the applicability of the modeling framework and describes how the various elements (e.g., link screening, dispersion modeling, path tracing, etc.) are optimized on the supercomputing cluster. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Microscale air quality impact assessment, AERMOD, vehicle emissions, population exposure, environmental equity |
| Date: | 2024–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt6zx778p0 |
| By: | Fajgelbaum, Pablo PhD; Gaubert, Cecile PhD; Tauzer, Matthew PhD |
| Abstract: | The California High-Speed Rail (HSR) project aims to transform transportation in the state. To understand the impact of this project as it “rolls out” across the state, we analyzed its economic benefits across each of its plannedphases, complementing official projections from the California High-Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA). Our analysis is based on a spatial economic model of the rail system model previously developed by members of our team. This model captures the direct potential travel benefits of the HSR project, such as quicker and sometimes cheaper transportation, for commuters, business travelers, and leisure travelers. It also captures wider economic benefits such as higher wages and land values stemming from greater concentration of employment in more productive areas. |
| Keywords: | Business |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt1zm5t77t |
| By: | Clara Bosch Checa; Eloina Coll Aliaga; Mar Correcher Rigau; Pilar De la Torre Fornés; Nuria Guardiola Ibañez; Carlos Jiménez García; Victoria Lerma Arce; Edgar Lorenzo Saez; Raul Sancha Llamosí; Iraklis Stamos (European Commission - JRC); Carolina Perpiña Castillo; María Joaquina Porres De La Haza |
| Abstract: | This publication results from the collaboration between the Valencia City Council, Universitat Politècnica de València, and the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission. Focused on urban sustainability, this joint effort aims to enhance the understanding and management of urban emissions and mobility through comprehensive data analysis and innovative methodologies. Six key studies are summarized, each addressing different aspects of urban sustainability in Valencia: — Vehicle Emissions Trends: This study analyses vehicle emissions using electromagnetic loops and an origin-destination matrix, assessing the impact of pandemic-related measures and providing policy recommendations for reducing transportation-related pollution. — Mobility Emissions Methodology: Utilizing open-source geo-statistics, this research develops a methodology to measure emissions at the neighbourhood level, offering insights into which areas could benefit from shifts to active transportation or improved public transit. — Metropolitan Emissions Analysis: By analysing emissions in Valencia's metropolitan area, this study high-lights significant discrepancies between municipalities, emphasizing the need for targeted emission reduction measures in highly polluted areas. — Sustainable Mobility and Emission Reduction: This project explores strategies for promoting sustainable urban mobility, such as enhancing public transportation and encouraging active transportation modes, with the aim of reducing CO2, NOx, and PM emissions. — Air Quality and Environmental Justice: Focusing on NO2 concentrations measured by passive dosimetry, this study identifies vulnerable areas with poor air quality and provides recommendations for addressing urban environmental inequities. — 15-Minute City Accessibility: Analysing service accessibility within a 15-minute framework, this research highlights the need for equitable urban planning to improve access to services for both residents and tourists. The findings underscore the critical role of data-driven approaches and spatial analysis in addressing urban sustainability challenges. The methodologies developed provide valuable tools for policymakers to allocate resources effectively and implement evidence-based strategies for emission reduction and sustainable development. This collaborative work highlights the importance of integrating scientific research with urban planning to create healthier, more liveable cities. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc138853 |
| By: | Max T. M. Ng; Joseph Schofer; Hani S. Mahmassani |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes and compares patterns of U.S. domestic rail freight volumes during, and after the disruptions caused by the 2007-2009 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Trends in rail and intermodal shipment data are examined in conjunction with economic indicators, focusing on the extent of drop and recovery of freight volumes of various commodities and intermodal shipments, and the lead/lag time with respect to economic drivers. While impacts from and the rebound from the Great Recessions were slow to develop, COVID-19 produced both profound disruptions in the freight market and rapid rebound, with important variations across commodity types. Energy-related commodities (i.e., coal, petroleum, and fracking sand), dropped during the pandemic while demand for other commodities (i.e., grain products and lumber, and intermodal freight). rebounded rapidly and in some cases grew. Overall rail freight experienced a rapid rebound following the precipitous drop in traffic in March and April 2020, achieving a near-full recovery in five months. As the recovery proceeded through 2020, intermodal flow, containers moving by rail for their longest overland trips, rebounded strongly, some exceeding 2019 levels. In contrast, rail flows during the Great Recession changed slowly with the onset and recovery, extending over multiple years. Pandemic response reflected the impacts of quick shutdowns and a rapid shift in consumer purchasing patterns. Results for the pandemic illustrate the resilience of U.S. rail freight industry and the multifaceted role it plays in the overall logistics system. Amid a challenging logistical environment, freight rail kept goods moving when other methods of transport were constrained. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.00218 |
| By: | Yang, Shuo; Kim, Changmo; Wu, Rongzong; Harvey, John T. |
| Abstract: | Fatigue cracking due to repeated truck traffic loads is the leading cause of failure of asphalt concrete pavement in many locations. Rest periods, referring to the time intervals between successive trucks, may allow for partial or full recovery from fatigue damage and in turn extend pavement fatigue life. This study examines the characteristics of rest periods using traffic data from 40 weigh-in-motion (WIM) stations installed on California state highways and evaluates their effects on pavement performance using a mechanistic-empirical simulation program, CalME. Truck traffic data were extracted from these WIM stations at selected periods throughout 2015. Rest periods, the probability distribution of rest periods, and quantiles of cumulative rest periods were calculated. Regression and statistical analyses of the 0.5 quantiles (i.e., median) of rest periods were also performed for different spectrum groups and seasons. It was found that rest periods are strongly correlated with the truck traffic volume regardless of the WIM station location or season. The actual rest periods based on the nonuniform truck traffic measured from the WIM data were found to be slightly shorter than the corresponding theoretical average rest periods for uniform traffic (ARP-UT), currently assumed in CalME, likely due to truck-following. This theoretical value assumes an equal time interval between trucks at all times. After comparing pavement performance with and without rest periods using CalME, it was found that rest periods have significant influence (a 30% difference) on pavement cracking. CalME simulations also show that the difference in pavement performance caused by the difference between the actual rest periods and the ARP-UT is minimal. Continued use of the ARP-UT is therefore recommended to account for the effect of rest periods in pavement design. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, weigh-in-motion, rest period, mechanistic-empirical design, fatigue, truck-following, CalME |
| Date: | 2024–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt9jn00543 |
| By: | Flintz, Joschka |
| Abstract: | This study quantifies the effect of train station openings on residential house prices across Germany over a 12-year period to provide generalizable evidence on the valuation of access to passenger rail by households. It is based on data on about 90 train station openings between 2009 and 2020 in Germany and a Differencein-Differences model that uses three different control group variants to cover alternative assumptions about unobserved regional heterogeneity to mitigate problems arising from endogenous transport infrastructure provision. The results indicate that train station openings increase residential house prices on average by 5% (€18, 000) within a distance of up to two to three kilometers. Notably, these positive effects are observed exclusively for properties without prior access to passenger rail services, and are significantly larger in more densely populated and urban areas. |
| Abstract: | Diese Studie quantifiziert die Auswirkungen von Bahnhofseröffnungen auf die Wohnimmobilienpreise in Deutschland über einen Zeitraum von 12 Jahren, um verallgemeinerbare Erkenntnisse über die Bewertung des Zugangs zum Schienenpersonenverkehr durch Haushalte zu gewinnen. Sie basiert auf Daten zu etwa 90 Bahnhofseröffnungen zwischen 2009 und 2020 in Deutschland und einem Differenz-in-Differenzen-Modell, das drei verschiedene Kontrollgruppenvarianten verwendet, um alternative Annahmen über unbeobachtete regionale Heterogenität abzudecken und Probleme, die sich aus der endogenen Bereitstellung von Verkehrsinfrastruktur ergeben, zu mildern. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Eröffnung von Bahnhöfen die Preise für Wohnimmobilien in einer Entfernung von bis zu zwei bis drei Kilometern im Durchschnitt um 5 % (18.000 €) erhöht. Bemerkenswert ist, dass diese positiven Effekte ausschließlich für Immobilien ohne vorherigen Zugang zum Schienenpersonenverkehr beobachtet werden und in dichter besiedelten und städtischen Gebieten deutlich größer sind. |
| Keywords: | Public transportation, regional passenger rail, hedonic price model, difference-in-differences, spatio-temporal analysis |
| JEL: | C23 R21 R40 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:306843 |
| By: | Fajgelbaum, Pablo PhD; Gaubert, Cecile PhD; Tauzer, Matthew PhD |
| Abstract: | The California High-Speed Rail (HSR) project stands to significantly change transportation across the state, but questions remain about who will benefit most from this massive infrastructure investment. While previous analyses have focused on the aggregate economic benefits of HSR in California, we provide a more nuanced understanding of these benefits for communities across California using a spatial economic model previously developed by members of our team. This model captures the direct potential travel benefits of the HSR project (such as quicker and sometimes cheaper transportation) for commuters, business travelers, and leisure travelers. It also captures wider economic benefits such as higher wages and land values stemming from greater concentration of employment in more productive areas. We examine how these benefits would be distributed across California regions and socioeconomic and income groups. By understanding the potential disparities in the impact of the HSR project, policymakers can develop complementary policies to promote more balanced economic development across regions in the state. |
| Keywords: | Business |
| Date: | 2025–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt5n138149 |
| By: | Barbour, Elisa; Volker, Jamey; Kaeppelin, Francois-Xavier |
| Abstract: | This report investigates how local governments (cities and counties) are implementing California’s Senate Bill 743, adopted in 2013 to eliminate traffic delay, measured using level-of-service (LOS) standards, as a basis for analyzing and mitigating transportation-related impacts of development projects and plans as called for under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA). Based on a survey of local planning directors in California, administered in Spring, 2024, the report finds that more thanfour-fifths of localities are continuing to apply LOS standards on an “off-CEQA” basis in the permitting process for individual development projects, as well as in community-level plans and policies. Most respondent localities reported that using both VMT and LOS at both the project- and plan-level has not created conflicts, indicating that they are able to align VMT and LOS. Mitigation strategies reported as effective in reducing VMT and also improving LOS include improving active travel facilities, supporting mixed-use development, and relaxing parking requirements; these strategies can be deemed “best practices” foraligning VMT and LOS objectives. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Law, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Senate Bill 743, California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) analysis and mitigation, level of service (LOS) standards, environmental review of transportation impacts of development, VMT impact standards and implementation |
| Date: | 2024–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt2vn3k4sr |
| By: | Elhan-Kayalar, Yesim (Asian Development Bank); Kucheryavyy, Konstantin (CUNY Baruch College); Nose, Manabu (International Monetary Fund); Sawada, Yasuyuki (University of Tokyo); Shangguan, Ruo (Jinan University); Thanh Tung, Nguyen (National Economics University) |
| Abstract: | In developing economies, foreign direct investment (FDI) plays a crucial role by providing resources that facilitate participation in international trade and support economic development. Focusing on Viet Nam as a case study, this research aims to quantify the distributional effects of the United States–People’s Republic of China trade dispute across different regions in Viet Nam. By utilizing detailed firm-level and customs data, we demonstrate that FDI in Viet Nam is geographically concentrated in the northern, central, and southern regions. Access to road and port networks significantly influences the choice of FDI locations. Furthermore, we highlight the important role that the foreign affiliates of multinational firms from East Asia and the United States have played in reshaping Viet Nam’s trade flows in the aftermath of the trade dispute between the United States and the People’s Republic of China. This study sheds light on the interplay between transport infrastructure, FDI, and international trade. |
| Keywords: | trade; ports; roads; US–PRC trade dispute; Viet Nam; PRC |
| JEL: | F10 F13 F14 R40 R41 |
| Date: | 2024–12–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0761 |
| By: | Lu, Hongyu; Rodgers, Michael O.; Guensler, Randall |
| Abstract: | The Georgia Tech research team developed MOVES-Matrix 3.0 based on the EPA's MOVES3 (version 3.1.0) energy use and emission rate model by running MOVES3 thousands of times on the PACE supercomputing cluster across all combinations of input variables and storing the output as lookup tables. MOVES-Matrix 3.0 allows on-road energy consumption and emissions modeling to be conducted more than 800 times faster than running MOVES, while it generates the exact same results, as verifiedin this report. MOVES-Matrix 3.0 was designed similarly to its predecessor, MOVES-Matrix 2014, but required extensive code modifications to accommodate changes in the MOVES3 environment (including a shift from MySQL to MariaDB and incorporation of new vehicle source sub-types and operating parameters). The review of the fuel and I/M scenarios indicated that MOVES3 now defines 122 modeling regions, as compared with 109 regions in MOVES 2014b (different matrices need to be developed each modeling region). The development of matrices for each modeling region takes approximately 15-20 days on the PACE supercomputing cluster given our assigned resources (compared with only 5-7 days to develop matrices for MOVES 2014). A case study of 3, 000 roadway links using Atlanta's matrices confirmed that MOVES-Matrix 3.0 produces the exact same energy consumption and emissions results as MOVES3, but execution modules operate 800 times faster using MOVES-Matrix lookupsthan running MOVES for any single run. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Emission Rate Modeling, Energy Use Modeling, MOVES, MOVES-Matrix |
| Date: | 2024–10–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt4cs5q28b |
| By: | Handy, Susan L; Volker, Jamey M. B.; Hosseinzade, Reyhane |
| Abstract: | This report identifies and summarizes the empirical evidence on potential mitigation measures for State Highway System (SHS) projects. For each of the measures on the list, the research team completed a systematic search of the academic literature to identify studies meeting specified search criteria, focusing on studies from the last decade but drawing on older studies when helpful for selected topics. In each of the sections of the report, the criteria for and results of those searches are summarized, including, where possible, the estimated size of the effect of the measure on vehicle miles traveled (VMT). The quantity and quality of the evidence varies widely across the measures: some measures have strong evidence in support of their use for VMT mitigation, while others have limited evidence as to the impact or good evidence of a limited impact; for some measures, no direct empirical evidence is available. A companion report assesses the available methods for estimating the effectiveness of the potential VMT mitigation measures. |
| Keywords: | Law, Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vehicle miles traveled, VMT mitigation |
| Date: | 2024–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1pf307sp |
| By: | Nina Xiaochun Sun; Zaifang He; Yi Pang |
| Abstract: | Measuring inequality of opportunities has long been a challenging and open problem, primarily due to the limitations associated with individual-level data. In this study, we utilize data obtained from vehicle license plates in a comprehensive survey (17258 vehicles from 6 major cities in China) to evaluate the inequality of opportunities in the country. In our context, we define inequality of opportunity as the scenario where relatively expensive vehicles have a higher likelihood of being paired with license plates featuring 'Lucky Numbers'. To quantify this, we propose a lucky-number-based opportunity Gini coefficient. Through the calculation of the opportunity Gini coefficient, we observe a significant and positive correlation between opportunity inequality and income inequality. Particularly noteworthy is our finding that the advancement of technology, exemplified by the widespread adoption of new energy vehicles, can substantially reduce the inequality of opportunity. Taking incorporation of a random lottery process before acquiring a motor vehicle in Beijing and Shanghai as a natural experiment, our empirical results support the argument that, in terms of equality, employing random drawing is a fair and equitable approach for allocating scarce resources. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.01298 |
| By: | Olympia Nisiforou; Christopher Deranian; Angelos Alamanos; Jorge Andres Garcia; Phoebe Koundouri |
| Abstract: | Shipping is a prominent sector within the Greek economy and faces several challenges in decarbonizing as prescribed by the FuelEU Maritime Regulation which is cornerstone of the EU's decarbonization efforts in the shipping sector, specifically targeting the fuels used by vessels, implemented from 1 January 2025. FuelEU Maritime aims to reduce greenhouse gas intensity in ships above 5, 000 gross tonnage at European ports by aiming for a 2% decrease by 2025 and an 80% reduction by 2050. The targets cover CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions over the full lifecycle of fuels used onboard. From January 1, 2030, passenger and container ships must use on-shore power supply (OPS) or alternative zero-emission technologies in ports covered under Article 9 of the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation (AFIR). Member States may apply the obligation to ports not covered by Article 9 from January 1, 2030. FuelEU Maritime's goal-based and technology-neutral approach allows for innovation and the development of new sustainable fuels and energy conversion technologies. The regulation also provides flexibility mechanisms, supporting existing fleets in compliance strategies and rewarding first-movers for early investment in energy transition (Directorate of Mobility & Transport, 2024). In this paper we present the application of a free, open-source Investment Decision Support Tool, called MaritimeGCH, to model the transition to cleaner fuels within the maritime industry. The study tests a set of scenarios from slow to fast transition to cleaner fuels within the Greek shipping sector, and explores their effect on fleet optimization decisions. This set of scenarios reflects the potential evolution of some fuels starting phasing out (e.g. Oil and RefPO), being replaced by the transition fuels (LNG and LPG), while others (green fuels) will ultimately become more prevalent in the future (MeOH, NH3 and H2). |
| Date: | 2025–01–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2508 |
| By: | Mateos, Angel; Harvey, John; Guada, Irwin; Wu, Rongzong; Lea, Jeremy; Nassiri, Somayeh |
| Abstract: | This technical memorandum evaluates the half-life performance of three long-life jointed plain concrete pavements (JPCPs), a combined total of 260 lane-miles, that were built in Southern California in the early 2000s. The pavements were designed for a 40-year life, which was twice the standard 20-year design life used for JPCP at that time. The projects are located in or close to the Mojave Desert on heavily trafficked interstate highways with 2022 annual average daily truck traffic levels between 2, 800 to 5, 100. The performance of the pavements has been evaluated based on data from the Caltrans pavement management system (PMS) databases (with software system PaveM), including pavement condition surveys with data about lane-based cracking, transverse joint faulting, and smoothness data, and the as-built database that includes all maintenance, rehabilitation, and reconstruction activities conducted on the Caltrans road network. The PMS databases were complemented with an in-situ evaluation of the projects in 2022 that included an inertial profiler evaluation and a road closure of one mile per project for visual inspection, coring, and falling wight deflectometer testing. Overall, the performance of the projects has been excellent so far. The third-stage cracking (slabs with two or more cracks) is essentially zero in all lanes, the faulting is also essentially zero, and the smoothness as measured by the International Roughness Index has been stable since the construction of the projects. The load transfer efficiency of the doweled transverse joints was high, from 80% to 85%, and it was also very uniform along the sections, with minimal diurnal variation (morning versus afternoon). Mechanistic-empirical modeling with AASHTOWare Pavement ME Design (version 2.5.5) supports the excellent performance of the projects and the lack of transverse cracking, in particular. Further, none the JPCP long-life projects has required any maintenance or rehabilitation activity (e.g., individual slab replacement or grinding) since their construction. The only concern with the performance of the projects is the presence of longitudinal cracking, affecting to 4% to 7% of the slabs, in some truck lanes. The longitudinal cracking may be related to the dry environment and, potentially, the use of widened slabs in one of the projects. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, jointed plain concrete pavement, pavement management system, long-life pavement, AASHTOWare Pavement ME, mechanistic-empirical modeling |
| Date: | 2024–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt4jp5g461 |
| By: | José Pulido |
| Abstract: | The Covid-19 pandemic severely disrupted the maritime transportation industry, leading to historic surge in container freight rates, which only returned to normal in 2023. In this paper I examine the welfare effects on a particular country, Colombia, of the observed disruption in international freight rates during the 2020-2023 period. For this, I use a quantitative model of international trade with out-of-steady-state transitional dynamics and a global production network, along with an instrumental variable approach to estimate a trade elasticity to freight. I quantify both the direct effects of freight increases on goods transported to and from Colombia, as well as the indirect impact of heightened rates on routes across the rest of the world. The freight disruption caused a welfare loss of 0.4%, attributable solely to the direct effects, as the indirect impact simultaneously enhances Colombia’s relative trade openness, thereby compensating for the increased shipping costs globally. **** RESUMEN: La pandemia de Covid-19 afectó severamente a la industria del transporte marítimo, provocando un aumento histórico en los fletes de contenedores, los cuales retornaron a niveles previos solo en 2023. Este artículo estudia los efectos sobre el bienestar de Colombia del ajuste observado en las tarifas internacionales de fletes de contenedores durante el período 2020-2023. Para ello, se utiliza un modelo cuantitativo de comercio internacional con dinámicas de ajuste fuera del estado estacionario y una red de producción global, junto con una estrategía de variable instrumental para estimar la elasticidad de los flujos comerciales a los fletes. Se cuantifican tanto los efectos directos del aumento en los fletes de los bienes transportados desde y hacia Colombia, asi como el impacto indirecto del incremento en los fletes en las demás rutas internacionales. La disrupción en los fletes causó una pérdida de bienestar del 0, 4 % atribuible únicamente a los efectos directos, ya que el aumento en los fletes en las demás rutas internacionales mejora simultáneamente el grado relativo de apertura comercial de Colombia, compensando los efectos de costos. |
| Keywords: | Container freight, transportation costs, international trade, Covid-19, Fletes, contenedores, transporte marítimo, comercio |
| JEL: | F16 F62 F17 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdr:borrec:1288 |
| By: | Max T. M. Ng; Hani S. Mahmassani; Joseph L. Schofer |
| Abstract: | To measure the impacts on U.S. rail and intermodal freight by economic disruptions of the 2007-09 Great Recession and the COVID-19 pandemic, this paper uses time series analysis with the AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) family of models and covariates to model intermodal and commodity-specific rail freight volumes based on pre-disruption data. A framework to construct scenarios and select parameters and variables is demonstrated. By comparing actual freight volumes during the disruptions against three counterfactual scenarios, Trend Continuation, Covariate-adapted Trend Continuation, and Full Covariate-adapted Prediction, the characteristics and differences in magnitude and timing between the two disruptions and their effects across nine freight components are examined. Results show the disruption impacts differ from measurement by simple comparison with pre-disruption levels or year-on-year comparison depending on the structural trend and seasonal pattern. Recovery Pace Plots are introduced to support comparison in recovery speeds across freight components. Accounting for economic variables helps improve model fitness. It also enables evaluation of the change in association between freight volumes and covariates, where intermodal freight was found to respond more slowly during the pandemic, potentially due to supply constraint. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2412.20669 |
| By: | Menta, Giorgia (LISER); Piccari, Michela (Sapienza University of Rome); Verheyden, Bertrand (LISER) |
| Abstract: | With growing emphasis on sustainable practices, carbon taxes and congestion charges are emerging as key tools to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve air quality, yet they often face public resistance. Using longitudinal data from a randomized survey experiment in Luxembourg, this paper investigates whether providing relevant information about these two green mobility policies influences pro-environmental attitudes (stated support and willingness to pay for the carbon tax) and behaviors (carbon offsetting donations). The first treatment, which informs participants that public support for urban congestion charges tends to increase after implementation, has little to no effect. In contrast, information on the use of carbon tax revenues (redistribution and energy-efficient investments) has a large positive impact on both stated and revealed pro-environmental preferences. Our results indicate that support for the carbon tax is more elastic to information on its redistributive aspect, rather than on its use for funding green projects. Additionally, constraints to behavioral change and pre-treatment environmental attitudes play a role in treatment response heterogeneity, and show that confirmation bias can moderate responses to information, especially among those skeptical of climate science. |
| Keywords: | survey experiment, climate policy, carbon tax, preferences, taxation, Luxembourg |
| JEL: | D83 H23 H31 Q58 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17578 |
| By: | Olympia Nisiforou; Angelos Alamanos; Jorge Andres Garcia; Lydia Papadaki; Phoebe Koundouri |
| Abstract: | The maritime sector faces increasing challenges as part of its ongoing transformation period towards more sustainable shipping: There is a shift in fuel preferences, with a gradual phasing out of high-polluting options in favor of cleaner, more sustainable alternatives, amidst increasingly stringent environmental policies pushing for greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions reduction, on top of the already complex techno-economic considerations for optimal shipping operations. These multifaceted challenges call for sophisticated, holistic solutions that can address economic, environmental, and operational aspects simultaneously. In response, the Global Climate Hub (GCH - an initiative under the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network) develops integrated models to assess such problems and provide sustainable pathways. Here, we present such a model, the MaritimeGCH, a free, open-source, simple and comprehensive tool to address such challenges of maritime fleet management. MaritimeGCH integrates different techno-economic, environmental, operational factors and recent European environmental policies into a single, comprehensive model, which is at the same time simple and transferable to various scales. The optimization logic is first described for maritime problems; next the detailed mathematical description of MaritimeGCH model is presented; and finally, its potential for policy-relevant scenario analysis is outlined with specific examples. The model is publicly available to encourage similar applications and improvements. |
| Keywords: | MaritimeGCH, Global Climate Hub, Fleet Optimization, Shipping, Sustainable maritime operations; Environmental regulations, Techno-economic analysis |
| Date: | 2025–01–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2504 |
| By: | Bart Defloor; Dirk Van de gaer (-) |
| Abstract: | People spend a lot of their time commuting. Research in health economics indicates that spending time in trac has long run adverse consequences for mental and physical health. Literature suggests that, when making decisions about commuting, the individual might un- derestimate these long run consequences and take them insuciently into consideration. For this reason, we argue that commuting has demerit properties, a so-called internality is involved: decisions at some point in life in uence well-being at a later point in life. From a policymaker's perspective, on top of the demerit aspect, commuting is also associated with an externality. If commuters underestimate the impact on their welfare of commuting, this aggravates also the externality. We propose a way in which both these demerit considerations and the externality can be incorporated into marginal costs of funds (MCF) formulae. The externality in our model both has a direct impact and a behavioural impact on other households' welfare. We calcu- late MCF for the United States to apply the model. We show that the demerit considerations cause rank switches in over half of the States and that an increase in the taxes on commuting accompanied by a decrease in other taxes benefits social welfare. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:25/1102 |