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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Panayotis Christidis (European Commission - JRC); Maria Vega Gonzalo (European Commission - JRC); Giulia Ulpiani (European Commission - JRC); Nadja Vetters (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | The Covid-19 pandemic triggered significant changes in lifestyles and mobility patterns which are still evident at the end of 2022 and may still raise challenges for transport policy in the short to medium term. While changes in lifestyles - mainly as regards work patterns - have decreased total urban transport activity, the gradual return to pre-pandemic levels suggests that traffic and congestion levels may soon exceed their 2019 levels. Apart from the question of total transport activity, the trends identified in this report can influence modal choice and trip distances, with possible negative repercussions in terms of transport costs, congestion and emissions. The analysis combines a range of data sources and methodologies. Changes in mobility patterns are identified using the JRC Travel Survey 2021. The evolution of traffic congestion levels is monitored through daily TomTom data from 178 cities in the EU. The evolution of public transport activity is measured with up-to-date statistics from national and local sources. The role of active mobility is discussed using a model to estimate the potential uptake and benefits in terms of external costs. Information provided by the candidates for the EU Mission on Climate-Neutral and Smart Cities allows an extensive review of transport policy measures adopted at city level. Finally, a case study for 40 European cities using multiple data sources provides an empirical confirmation of the main findings. |
| Keywords: | mobility, congestion, public transport, emerging technologies, Covid-19 |
| JEL: | R41 L90 L91 O18 R14 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc133322&r=tre |
| By: | Gabriel Kreindler; Arya Gaduh; Tilman Graff; Rema Hanna; Benjamin A. Olken |
| Abstract: | Designing public transport networks involves tradeoffs between extensive geographic coverage, frequent service on each route, and relying on interconnections as opposed to direct service. These choices, in turn, depend on individual preferences for waiting times, travel times, and transfers. We study these tradeoffs by examining the world's largest bus rapid transit system, in Jakarta, Indonesia, leveraging a large network expansion between 2016-2020. Using detailed ridership data and aggregate travel flows from smartphone data, we analyze how new direct connections, changes in bus travel time, and wait time reductions increase ridership and overall trips. We set up and estimate a transit network demand model with multi-dimensional travel costs, idiosyncratic heterogeneity induced by random wait times, and inattention, matching event-study moments from the route launches. Commuters in Jakarta are 2-4 times more sensitive to wait time compared to time on the bus, and inattentive to long routes. To study the implications for network design, we introduce a new framework to describe the set of optimal networks. Our results suggest that a less concentrated network would increase ridership and commuter welfare. |
| JEL: | L91 O18 R48 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31369&r=tre |
| By: | Lucie Letrouit (AME-SPLOTT - Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail - Université Gustave Eiffel); Martin Koning (AME-SPLOTT - Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail - Université Gustave Eiffel) |
| Abstract: | Building on the exogenous shock linked with the first COVID-19 lockdown in France (March-May 2020), we propose an original approach relying on econometric modelling to estimate the impacts of road freight transport on the concentration of NO2, NOx and PM10 in Paris. We argue that this shock led to a significant change in the composition of road traffic, with an increase in the relative share of freight vehicles with respect to passenger cars, due to the combined exodus of numerous inhabitants, the prohibition of non-mandatory trips and the promotion of home-deliveries. As light-duty vehicles and trucks pollute more than passenger cars, we hypothesize that it led to a rise in the average emissions of pollutants per kilometer traveled in Paris. We confirm this assumption by applying a simple econometric analysis to a rich dataset containing hourly pollutant concentrations and hourly traffic flows recorded in various locations of the French capital city. Relying on the econometric results and on additional back-of-theenvelope computations, we propose tentative estimates of the health impacts of road freight transport. As compared to a counterfactual in which freight traffic in Paris would have declined in the same proportion as cars during the sanitary crisis, hence resulting in a larger decrease in pollutants concentrations, we conclude that around 7 lives have been lost. Crossing this estimate with the official value of statistical life in France, our central scenario approximates at 0.20 euro/km the excess external cost of the local pollution emitted by freight vehicles as compared to cars. |
| Keywords: | Road freight traffic, Air pollution, Covid-19 lockdown, Health, External cost |
| Date: | 2023–05–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04106196&r=tre |
| By: | David L. Sjoquist (Center for State and Local Finance, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University) |
| Abstract: | In this report, we explore the mileage tax (i.e., a vehicle miles traveled (VMT) tax) to provide a basic understanding of what a milage tax is, to describe the options for how it might be implemented, and to explore many of the issues associated with switching from a motor fuel tax to a mileage tax. Such a switch would likely be implemented over time, with some vehicles continuing to pay the motor fuel tax for a protracted period and with an increasing number of other vehicles paying a tax based on miles driven. A tax based on miles driven is alternatively referred to as a vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) tax or fee, a mileage-based user fee (MBUF), or a road user charge (RUC). |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:cslfwp:cslf2301&r=tre |
| By: | Allister Loder; Fabienne Cantner; Lennart Adenaw; Nico Nachtigall; David Ziegler; Felix Gotzler; Markus B. Siewert; Stefan Wurster; Sebastian Goerg; Markus Lienkamp; Klaus Bogenberger |
| Abstract: | In spring 2022, the German federal government agreed on a set of policy measures that aimed at reducing households' financial burden resulting from a recent price increase, especially in energy and mobility. These included among others, a nationwide public transport ticket for 9~Euro per month for three months in June, July, and August 2022. In transport policy research this is an almost unprecedented behavioral experiment. It allows us to study not only behavioral responses in mode choice and induced demand but also to assess the effectiveness of these instruments. We observe this natural experiment with a three-wave survey and a smartphone-based travel diary with passive tracking on an initial sample of 2, 261 participants with a focus on the Munich metropolitan region. This area is chosen as it offers a variety of mode options with a dense and far-reaching public transport network that even provides good access to many leisure destinations. The app has been providing data from 756 participants until the end of September, the three-wave survey by 1, 402, and the app and the three waves by 637 participants. In this paper, we report on the study design, the recruitment and study participation as well as the impacts of the policy measures on the self-reported and app-observed travel behavior; we present results on consumer choices for a successor ticket to the 9-Euro-Ticket that started in May 2023. We find a substantial shift in the modal share towards public transport from the car in our sample during the 9-Euro-Ticket period in travel distance (around 5 %) and in trip frequency (around 7 %). The mobility outcomes of the 9-Euro-Ticket however provide evidence that cheap public transport as a policy instrument does not suffice to incentive sustainable travel behavior choices and that other policy instruments are required in addition. |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2306.08297&r=tre |
| By: | Jan K. Brueckner; Matthew E. Kahn; Jerry Nickelsburg |
| Abstract: | Airline fuel consumption is costly for the firms and for society as well due to a climate-change externality. We study how fuel price changes affect cost-minimizing choices by airlines that have implications for the extent of this externality. The airline industry’s capital stock can be easily inventoried as a set of long-lived, durable aircraft. This portfolio approach allows us to study the utilization and composition of the capital stock at a highly disaggregated level. Changes in airline operations directed toward conserving fuel can be an important path toward lower emissions. |
| Keywords: | airlines, fuel, climate change, carbon emissions |
| JEL: | Q52 L93 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10478&r=tre |
| By: | Andrea Éltető (Institute of World Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Eötvös Loránd Research Centre) |
| Abstract: | The significant expansion of Hungarian domestic electric vehicle battery manufacturing capacity by early 2023 has become a major topic of public debate in the country. South Korean battery factories have been operating in Hungary since 2019 with Asian-owned suppliers and further Asian plants have been established since then. This paper presents the various aspects of scaling up battery production, drawing on official documents, press information, studies, statistics, and video and audio material. It shows how the functioning plants operate in Hungary, how industrial safety and environmental regulations are breached, and what the attitude of local authorities and civil groups is. The study evaluates the location factors like availability of workforce, energy and water, pointing out their scarcity. There is also a painful lack of responsible cost-benefit analysis, a credible and flexible government strategy and fact-based information |
| Keywords: | EV batteries, industrial policy, FDI, Hungary |
| JEL: | L62 L98 F23 O14 |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwe:workpr:271&r=tre |
| By: | Witcover, Julie PhD; Murphy, Colin PhD |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews literature on technological, market, and policy factors affecting the growth of alternative aviation fuels. At present, they represent a minimal fraction of global aviation fuel used but are a critical tool for lowering GHG emissions from aviation. Even with electric and hydrogen power, substantial volumes of low-carbon liquid fuels are likely needed; these will draw heavily on biomass. Beyond hydroprocessed esters and fatty acid (HEFA) fuels, technologies, including lower carbon e-fuels, remain pre-commercial. More jurisdictions are providing incentives for alternative aviation fuel, and some on-road biofuels may be redirected towards aviation in a favorable market, because production processes for these fuels overlap. Biomass feedstocks at different demand levels need to be sourced and evaluated for unintended impacts. Research suggests alternative aviation fuels improve air quality impacts compared to conventional jet fuel. Key uncertainties in scaling alternative jet fuel remain, including ongoing concerns about land use change from biofuels, how to right-size incentives with no technology clearly dominant, what the long-term carbon budget is for aviation, and how to build fuel delivery infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Alternate fuels, aviation fuels, greenhouse gases, sustainable transportation, policy analysis, incentives |
| Date: | 2023–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt4h65x1g9&r=tre |