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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Peter Haan; Adrián Santonja; Aleksandar Zaklan |
| Abstract: | We evaluate German purchase subsidies for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) using data on new vehicle registrations in Germany during 2015-2022. We account for confounding time trends and interacting EU-level CO2 standards using neighboring countries as a control group. The program was cost-ineffective, as only 40% of BEV and 25% of PHEV registrations were subsidy-induced, and had strong distributional effects, with greater uptake in wealthier and greener counties. The implied abatement cost of 870 euro per ton of CO2 for BEVs and 2, 470 euro for PHEVs suggests that subsidies to PHEVs were especially cost-ineffective. |
| Keywords: | Decarbonizing road transport, electric mobility, purchase subsidies, policy effectiveness, distributional effects of climate policy |
| JEL: | Q54 Q58 H23 R48 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp2032&r=tre |
| By: | Linn, Joshua (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes welfare and distributional effects of nested US policies affecting plug-in vehicles: state-level zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) standards and national fuel economy and greenhouse gas (GHG) standards for passenger vehicles. I use a computational model of the passenger vehicle market that endogenizes manufacturer choices of prices, technology, fuel economy, and horsepower and incorporates the timing of regulatory decisions and pre-existing distortions caused by market power and consumer undervaluation of fuel economy. Ignoring the influence of the 2022 ZEV standards on fuel economy and GHG standards, ZEV standards would appear to impose high costs without reducing emissions. However, accounting for such influence reveals that ZEV standards reduced GHG emissions at modest costs. |
| Date: | 2023–03–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-23-05&r=tre |
| By: | Lohawala, Nafisa (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Federal and state governments in many countries subsidize the early adopters of electric vehicles (EVs). These programs often use quotas or deadlines to phase out the subsidies, which can create dynamic incentives for car manufacturers. Since most of the literature studies the effect of introducing subsidies on market outcomes in static settings, little research has addressed the dynamic effects of subsidy-capping designs. This paper explores those effects in the US vehicle market. I develop a structural model of consumers’ vehicle choices and manufacturers’ pricing decisions in the US automobile industry. I then estimate the model using comprehensive data on new vehicle registrations, prices, characteristics, and subsidies in 30 states between 2011 and 2017. Based on the primitives generated from the model, I conduct counterfactual simulations to compare three designs: a marketwide deadline, a per-manufacturer deadline, and a per-manufacturer quota. The simulations show that for a given government expenditure, the quota leads to up to 18 percent lower EV sales than the deadlines. Moreover, each design influences the sales of conventional vehicles, consumer surplus, manufacturer profits, and liquid fuel consumption differently. |
| Date: | 2023–05–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-23-13&r=tre |
| By: | Gabriel Loumeau (Department of Spatial Economics, VU Amsterdam, The Netherlands.); Antonio Russo (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S1 4DT, UK.) |
| Abstract: | Does gentrification spread along intercity transport connections? We consider a model with heterogeneous individuals populating a primary and a secondary city. By reducing intercity commuting costs, transport connections induce mi- gration of skilled individuals towards the secondary city, which increases housing prices. We call this effect second-hand gentrification. We confirm these predictions using the 2017 expansion of the French HSR network from Paris to Bordeaux and Rennes. We find that the HSR connection induced skilled Parisians to move to Bordeaux and Rennes. Housing prices there consequently increased (+10.6%), as well as the median income (+2.5%), and within-neighborhood income inequality (+2%). |
| Keywords: | Gentrification, High-Speed Rail, Housing Market, Intercity Travel |
| JEL: | R23 R11 R41 |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2023011&r=tre |
| By: | Prateek Bansal; Rubal Dua (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | China and India, the world’s two most populous developing economies, are also among the largest automotive markets and carbon emitters. To reduce carbon emissions from the passenger car sector, both countries have considered various policy levers that affect fuel price, car prices and fuel economy. This study estimates the responsiveness of new car buyers in China and India to such policy levers and drivers, including income. |
| Keywords: | Fleet fuel economy, Fleet GHG Emissions, Ride Hailing, Sustainable Mobility |
| Date: | 2022–11–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2022-dp20&r=tre |
| By: | NISHITATENO Shuhei; Paul J. BURKE; ARIMURA Toshi H. |
| Abstract: | Vehicular emissions, being a major global health concern, have gathered worldwide attention and necessitated extensive research to gain deeper insights. The aim of this study was to estimate the effects of road traffic flow on the local ambient concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO), non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Japan. We constructed an hourly panel dataset of nationwide samples of air pollution monitoring stations from 2010–2015. By estimating a dynamic panel model with station-hour panel data, short-run pollution-road traffic elasticities of 0.04–0.05 for NOx, CO, and NMHC, and long-run elasticities of 0.09–0.17 were observed; however, no significant evidence was found for PM2.5. We used these estimates to understand the potential effects of reducing road traffic flow to meet the World Health Organization’s new air quality guidelines. |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:23031&r=tre |
| By: | Leard, Benjamin (Resources for the Future); Linn, Joshua (Resources for the Future); Springel, Katalin |
| Abstract: | This paper presents welfare and distributional effects of US passenger vehicle fuel economy and greenhouse gas standards between 2012 and 2022. We build an equilibrium model that allows for endogenous markups, market shares, and nonprice attributes. The model includes fixed and variable costs of raising fuel economy, manufacturer substitution between fuel economy and performance, and heterogeneous consumer preferences and manufacturer costs. We estimate all demand and supply parameters from observed consumer and manufacturer choices. We find that the standards have increased social welfare and that consumer undervaluation of fuel cost savings accounts for most of the social benefits. Manufacturers achieve most fuel economy improvements by trading off horsepower rather than adjusting prices or adding fuel-saving technology. Due to this compliance strategy, the standards have been progressive because high-income households value horsepower much more than low-income households do. Consumer undervaluation of fuel cost savings also contributes to progressivity. |
| Date: | 2023–03–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-23-04&r=tre |
| By: | Allister Loder; Fabienne Cantner; Lennart Adenaw; Markus B. Siewert; Sebastian Goerg; Klaus Bogenberger |
| Abstract: | In a response to the 2022 cost-of-living crisis in Europe, the German government implemented a three-month fuel excise tax cut and a public transport travel pass for 9 Euro per month valid on all local and regional services. Following this period, a public debate immediately emerged on a successor to the so-called "9-Euro-Ticket", leading to the political decision of introducing a similar ticket priced at 49 Euro per month in May 2023, the so-called "Deutschlandticket". We observe this introduction of the new public transport ticket with a sample of 818 participants using a smartphone-based travel diary with passive tracking and a two-wave survey. The sample comprises 510 remaining participants of our initial "9-Euro-Ticket study from 2022 and 308 participants recruited in March and early April 2023. In this report we report on the status of the panel before the introduction of the "Deutschlandticket". |
| Date: | 2023–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2305.04248&r=tre |
| By: | Rajabighamchi, Farzaneh (Data Analytics and Digitalisation, RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research); van Hoesel, Stan (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, RS: FSE DACS Mathematics Centre Maastricht, QE Operations research); Defryn, Christof (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, RS: FSE DACS Mathematics Centre Maastricht, QE Operations research) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the routing of multiple commodities (shipments) through a network with the aim to minimize the total cost. To transport these commodities from their origin to their destination hub, a combination of different services can be used, including scheduled trucks (following a dedicated trajectory, similar to bus routes) and express delivery. Each commodity starts its itinerary at its origin hub and needs to arrive at its destination hub before its deadline. The following cost factors are considered in the model: a fixed cost as well as a distance-based travel cost for the scheduled truck services, a cost for express delivery between each pair of hubs based on the size of the commodity, and the inventory holding cost at each hub. We first define the problem as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP). To solve this MILP, we apply a branch-and-price algorithm that relies on column generation. In a second phase, we extend our model formulation to also deal with demand uncertainty (i.e., the size of each shipment varies) and present a two-stage, scenario-based stochastic model which we also solve using the branch-and-price algorithm. To generate the scenarios for the stochastic model, we apply Sample Average Approximation (SAA). Extensive computational experiments, including a sensitivity analysis are presented. |
| Date: | 2023–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:umagsb:2023005&r=tre |
| By: | Shen, Chang; Linn, Joshua (Resources for the Future) |
| Abstract: | Growth of private vehicle ownership in low-income and emerging countries is a dominant factor in forecasts of global oil demand and greenhouse gas emissions. Countries such as China are expected to experience rapid income growth over the next few decades, but little causal evidence exists on its effect on car ownership in these countries. Using city-level data on new car sales and income from 2005 to 2017, and using export-led growth to isolate plausibly exogenous income variation, we estimate an elasticity of new car sales to income of about 2.5. This estimate indicates that recent projections of vehicle sales in China have understated actual sales by 36 percent and carbon dioxide emissions by 18 million metric tons in 2017. The results suggest that, to meet its climate objectives, China’s climate policies will need to be substantially more aggressive than previous forecasts indicate. |
| Date: | 2021–06–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-21-17&r=tre |
| By: | Steffen Jaap Bakker; E. Ruben van Beesten; Ingvild Synn{\o}ve Brynildsen; Anette Sandvig; Marit Siqveland; Asgeir Tomasgard |
| Abstract: | To achieve carbon emission targets worldwide, decarbonization of the freight transport sector will be an important factor. To this end, national governments must make plans that facilitate this transition. National freight transport models are a useful tool to assess what the effects of various policies and investments may be. The state of the art consists of very detailed, static models. While useful for short-term policy assessment, these models are less suitable for the long-term planning necessary to facilitate the transition to low-carbon transportation in the upcoming decades. In this paper, we fill this gap by developing a framework for strategic national freight transport modeling, which we call STraM, and which can be characterized as a multi-period stochastic network design model, based on a multimodal freight transport formulation. In STraM, we explicitly include several aspects that are lacking in state-of-the art national freight transport models: the dynamic nature of long-term planning, as well as new, low-carbon fuel technologies and long-term uncertainties in the development of these technologies. We illustrate our model using a case study of Norway and discuss the resulting insights. In particular, we demonstrate the relevance of modeling multiple time periods, the importance of including long-term uncertainty in technology development, and the efficacy of carbon pricing. |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2304.14001&r=tre |
| By: | Taiwo Adetiloye; Anjali Awasthi |
| Abstract: | The logistics of urban areas are becoming more sophisticated due to the fast city population growth. The stakeholders are faced with the challenges of the dynamic complexity of city logistics(CL) systems characterized by the uncertainty effect together with the freight vehicle emissions causing pollution. In this conceptual paper, we present a research methodology for the environmental sustainability of CL systems that can be attained by effective stakeholders' collaboration under non-chaotic situations and the presumption of the human levity tendency. We propose the mathematical axioms of the uncertainty effect while putting forward the notion of condition effectors, and how to assign hypothetical values to them. Finally, we employ a spider network and causal loop diagram to investigate the system's elements and their behavior over time. |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2304.13987&r=tre |
| By: | de Silva, Ashton J; Yanotti, Maria; Sinclair, Sarah; Angelopoulos, Sveta; Navon, Yonatan |
| Abstract: | National Economic indicators are important. However, they may portray an incomplete and misleading picture of localised urban economies. In this study, we explore features of the patterns and dynamics of localised economies with a particular focus on examining economic recovery paths from the Covid-19 pandemic. Exploring the definition, identity and measurement of local economies and using the City of Melbourne as a case study, we interrogate the potential use of Pedestrian Counts to indicate current and future economic activity. We illustrate how pedestrian counts are available in real-time at high frequencies and can provide an opportunity to gauge real-time and forecast patterns in local-level economic activity. |
| Keywords: | Local Economic Activity, Pedestrian Counts, Footfall, COVID-19 |
| JEL: | R00 R38 R5 |
| Date: | 2023–04–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:117154&r=tre |