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on Transport Economics |
By: | Linn, Joshua (Resources for the Future); McConnell, Virginia (Resources for the Future); Pesek, Sophie (Resources for the Future); Raimi, Daniel (Resources for the Future) |
Abstract: | Federal and state tax policies designed to fund the construction and maintenance of transportation infrastructure rely almost exclusively on excise taxes levied on petroleum products. But as the United States and the world seek to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, boosting fuel economy and electric vehicle (EV) sales will reduce the demand for petroleum and associated public revenues. In this analysis, we use an economic model of the US household vehicle market to estimate the effects of three alternative revenue policies: one that adjusts tax rates for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and adds a new per-mile fee for EVs to maintain the performance of US roadways, a second that levies a per-mile fee on all vehicles in lieu of the gasoline tax, and a third that charges all motorists for the external costs of driving, including greenhouse gas emissions, “local†air pollution, traffic accidents, and congestion. We also examine the effects of extending fuel economy standards beyond their current levels. We find that current tax policies are insufficient by tens of billions of dollars per year to fund roadways and that either higher taxes on gasoline or a per-mile fee of $0.03 levied on all passenger vehicles could achieve the target revenue. Tightening fuel economy standards lowers the cost of operating ICE vehicles and reduces tax revenues. Imposing a per-mile fee on EV owners has virtually no effect on EV adoption because of interactions with other policies but does slightly reduce EV miles driven. We produce an updated estimate of the external costs of driving, averaging $0.16 per mile for gasoline vehicles ($3.85 per gallon) and $0.06 per mile for EVs, with large differences between urban and rural counties. Applying fees at this rate dramatically accelerates EV adoption, increases driving costs (especially for ICE vehicles), slightly reduces overall driving, and raises tax revenues well beyond the level needed to maintain roadway performance. |
Date: | 2023–04–13 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-23-09&r=tre |
By: | Fitch-Polse, Dillon T; Mohiuddin, Hossain; Fukushige, Tatsuya; Darr, Justin; Agarwal, Swati |
Abstract: | This report presents preliminary findings from the American Micromobility Panel, the largest study of shared micromobility services in the United States incorporating riders from multiple major operators. Micromobility services (bike-share and scooter-share) have recently emerged in many U.S. cities. Given that the substitution of bicycling, scooting, and other small vehicle travel for car travel will help cities reach numerous planning goals (e.g., accessibility, emissions, climate, health, equity, etc.), there is a need for understanding the effects of these mobility services. The purpose of this study was to examine the impact of micromobility services on travel behavior and outcomes such as mode shift, car ownership, access, equity, safety, and physical activity. The authors surveyed shared micromobility service users in 48 U.S. cities with two different surveys in Summer 2022: a 21-day smartphone-based travel diary (2206 participants with 183, 483 trips), and an online follow-up survey of travel diary participants (657 valid responses). Car substitution rates, including private car and ride-hailing, show strong variation by city size and micromobility vehicle type. Through self-report, micromobility seems to have had at least a partial influence on the decision to purchase a car, perhaps as a part of a long-term car use reduction effort/plan. Participants showed positive attitudes toward using public transit, but a small portion of trips to access or egress from transit facilities were made by the participants. Instead, the participants more generally showed a transit substitution effect when using micromobility services. Results also suggest that bike-share and scooter-share use may be influenced in opposing ways by participant income. Half of participants had at least once experienced that they could not find an available vehicle nearby, suggesting a sizeable supply constraint on demand for the services to satisfy existing micromobility user needs. The effect of micromobility services on increasing physical activity was slight given the physical activity it often replaced. Additionally, concerning safety, participants tended to agree that bike-share is safer than scooter-share, and participants tended to agree with the view that using micromobility improved their mental health. View the NCST Project Webpage |
Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Micromobility, shared mobility, travel survey, GPS data, bicycles, e-scooters, e-bikes |
Date: | 2023–04–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt8bs198sz&r=tre |
By: | Kim, Changmo; Butt, Ali Azhar; Harvey, John; Ostovar, Maryam; Saboori, Arash |
Abstract: | The objective of this study was to develop a framework for determining the fuel use and environmental impacts caused by construction work zones (CWZs) on a range of vehicles and to produce initial calculations of these impacts by modeling traffic closure conditions for highway maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) activities. The framework was developed and demonstrated in several scenarios. The study included three common highway categories—freeways, multi-lane highways, and two-lane highways—and common California vehicle types. The framework uses realistic drive cycle values and CWZ operation scenarios as inputs to the simulation software MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) to estimate total fuel consumption and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the framework was demonstrated using three CWZ operations under different traffic congestion levels: light, medium, and heavy. Fuel consumption and pollutant emissions results obtained for the CWZ operation scenario with and without congestion were compared with those for a no-CWZ, no-congestion scenario. In the simulation results for a freeway with a CWZ and heavy congestion, fuel consumption increased by 85% and the CO2 equivalent (CO2-e) emissions increased by 86%, NOx by 62%, SOx by 85%, and PM2.5 by 128%. In the multi-lane highway scenarios, fuel consumption increased by 85%, and CO2-e emissions increased by 88%, NOx by 75%, SOx by 87%, and PM2.5 emissions by 129% for a CWZ with heavy congestion. Lessening traffic congestion in a CWZ from heavy (average speed 5 mph) to medium (average speed 25 mph for a freeway section and 15 mph for a multi-lane road section) reduced fuel consumption by 40% on a freeway and 33% on multi-lane highway. This study also included use of a pilot car in a CWZ on a two-lane road. This approach was undertaken to estimate the possible benefits of different CWZ lane closure strategies and traffic management plans. The pilot-car operation scenario results indicate that a one-lane closure with pilot-car operation on a two-lane road might consume 13% more fuel because of idling time and the slow movement of vehicles following the pilot car. This scenario generated emissions increases of 10% for CO2-e, 14% for NOx, 13% for SOx, and 65% for PM2.5. The results of these scenarios indicate that the impacts from heavy vehicles far exceed those from smaller vehicles in CWZs. Phase 2 of the study will develop methods for pavement management, conceptual evaluation, and project design that consider construction closures by implementing this life cycle assessment framework. These methods will also be used in studies to evaluate pavement design lives (20 years versus 40 years) and pavement selection for truck lanes and in-place recycling and to evaluate lane closure schedules and tactics to minimize CWZ impacts on highways by using project-specific traffic congestion levels. |
Keywords: | Engineering, fuel consumption, greenhouse gas, life cycle assessment, air pollutant |
Date: | 2022–07–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt02m0x1t7&r=tre |
By: | Fanny Tremblay-Racicot; Patricia Burke Wood; Carolyn Kim; Chandan Bhardwaj; Adam Thorn; Marie-Ève Assunçao-Denis; Matt Pinder; Gabriel Eidelman; Kass Forman; Spencer Neufeld; Kinza Riaz (University of Toronto) |
Abstract: | Investments in transportation are among the most visible investments made across all orders of government in Canada, with each order of government illustrating different forms of involvement in the country’s transportation networks. The federal and provincial governments oversee long-distance transportation, while municipalities are responsible for public transit, active transportation, and local highways and roads. By changing policies and priorities across all orders of government, cities could make transportation networks more effective while reducing emissions. The four papers in this report focus on the role that Canadian municipalities currently play in transportation and how other orders of government can support that role. The papers also propose policies to strengthen the municipal role in transportation while alleviating congestion, moving goods more efficiently, and promoting active transportation and sustainability. Municipalities Fanny Tremblay-Racicot examines the links between transportation, urban planning, and land use and asserts that municipalities have the power to prioritize complete streets interventions and active transportation investments, particularly in vulnerable neighbourhoods, as well as to democratize land-use planning. Patricia Burke Wood argues that Canadian cities need collaborative and regional transportation governance for strong, multimodal networks to provide better service to transit riders. She recommends that municipalities play a leading role in these governance structures and in efforts to coordinate travel across local networks. Carolyn Kim, Chandan Bhardwaj, and Adam Thorn discuss the unique policy levers that municipalities can use to make urban freight transportation more sustainable by encouraging low-emissions deliveries and optimizing freight routing. Marie-Ève Assunçao-Denis and Matt Pinder stress that municipal governments should continue to designate mixed-use areas, especially near public transit, and complement such land-use changes with upgrades to active transportation infrastructure to create more walkable environments. Provincial governments Tremblay-Racicot notes that provinces need to implement stronger growth-management policies and legislation regarding transportation and urban planning, so that local governments have more incentive to make changes. Wood finds that the working relationships between municipalities and provincial governments on urban transit governance are often weak, unclear, unstable, and antagonistic. She recommends more collaboration, drawing on international models. Kim, Bhardwaj, and Thorn advocate for provinces to enhance financial support and autonomy for municipalities. This support could include funding for low-emissions freight transportation technologies and granting the power to implement policies required to support more efficient goods movement. Assunçao-Denis and Pinder call for provinces to increase the funding available to municipalities for active transportation infrastructure and initiatives, highlighting existing programs in British Columbia and Québec. Federal government Wood argues that Canada’s transportation governance structures and practices are uneven and often unaccountable. The federal government’s current role is characterized by ambiguity and inconsistency, which could be improved by mutually agreed-upon expectations across orders of government. Kim, Bhardwaj, and Thorn highlight federal programs that have supported municipalities in adopting more sustainable practices, such as fleet electrification and the accompanying need for more public electric-vehicle charging stations. Assunçao-Denis and Pinder emphasize the crucial role of federal funding in the development and improvement of active transportation infrastructure and programs, including research and feasibility studies, community engagement initiatives, and cycling and walking infrastructure projects. Intergovernmental cooperation The need for increased intergovernmental cooperation among orders of government is an underlying assumption of all the contributors, particularly with respect to stronger legislation and funding assistance. Assunçao-Denis and Pinder call for more horizontal coordination across local governments such as boroughs and municipalities to support active transportation. Kim, Bhardwaj, and Thorn suggest that sustainable freight traffic would benefit from improved coordination of goals and policies among all orders of government. |
Keywords: | Canada, municipalities, transportation, intergovernmental relations, transit governance, freight, active transportation |
JEL: | R40 O18 H70 |
Date: | 2023–04 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mfg:mfgwdw:6&r=tre |
By: | Gorshkova Marina (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University); Mirzoyan Ashot (Department of Economics, Lomonosov Moscow State University) |
Abstract: | The car market, like many others, needs a detailed study from the consumer's choice and preferences, because this aspect allows you to get to know the buyer better, understand what is important to him, and in which direction the industry as a whole is moving. The purpose of this work is to identify the determinants that determine the features of demand in the current economic situation in the personal transport market in Russia. The following analysis tools are used: clustering by the k means method, factor analysis by the principal components method, ordered logistic regression. Using the example of the Russian segment of the automotive market, 3 groups were identified and their preferences described, as well as the main factors influencing consumer choice among motorists and those who plan to buy personal transport were identified. |
Keywords: | Car market, consumer behavior, consumer choice, clustering, principal component method, logistic regression |
JEL: | L10 L62 |
Date: | 2022–11 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upa:wpaper:0046&r=tre |
By: | Farrell, Jay A; Wu, Guoyuan; Hu, Wang; Oswald, David; Hao, Peng |
Abstract: | Reliable, lane-level, absolute position determination for connected and automated vehicles (CAV’s) is near at hand due to advances in sensor and computing technology. These capabilities in conjunction with high-definition maps enable lane determination, per lane queue determination, and enhanced performance in applications. This project investigated, analyzed, and demonstrated these related technologies. Project contributions include: (1) Experimental analysis demonstrating that the USDOT Mapping tool achieves internal horizontal accuracy better than 0.2 meters (standard deviation); (2) Theoretical analysis of lane determination accuracy as a function of both distance from the lane centerline and positioning accuracy; (3) Experimental demonstration and analysis of lane determination along the Riverside Innovation Corridor showing that for a vehicle driven within 0.9 meters of the lane centerline, the correct lane is determined for over 90% of the samples; (4) Development of a VISSIM position error module to enable simulation analysis of lane determination and lane queue estimation as a function of positioning error; (5) Development of a lane-level intersection queue prediction algorithm; Simulation evaluation of lane determination accuracy which matched the theoretical analysis; and (6) Simulation evaluation of lane queue prediction accuracy as a function of both CAV penetration rate and positioning accuracy. Conclusions of the simulation analysis in item (6) are the following: First, when the penetration rate is fixed, higher queue length estimation error occurs as the position error increases. However, the disparity across different position error levels diminishes with the decrease of penetration rate. Second, as the penetration rate decreases, the queue length estimation error significantly increases under the same GNSS error level. The current methods that exist for queue length prediction only utilize vehicle position and a penetration rate estimate. These results motivate the need for new methods that more fully utilize the information available on CAVs (e.g., distance to vehicles in front, back, left, and right) to decrease the sensitivity to penetration rate. View the NCST Project Webpage |
Keywords: | Engineering, Connected and automated vehicles, lane determination, lane-level queue prediction, intersection traffic management, lane-level positioning |
Date: | 2023–04–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1f7661b4&r=tre |
By: | Bencsik, Panka (University of Chicago); Lusher, Lester (University of Hawaii at Manoa); Taylor, Rebecca L.C. (University of Sydney) |
Abstract: | Time scarcity is one of the strongest correlates of fast food consumption. To estimate the causal effect of time lost on food choice, we match daily store-specific foot traffic data traced via smartphones to plausibly exogenous shocks in highway traffic data in Los Angeles. We find that on days when highways are more congested, individuals are more likely to dine out and less likely to grocery shop. The effects are particularly pronounced for afternoon rush hour traffic. Our results imply a net reduction in healthy food store choice due to time lost. |
Keywords: | traffic congestion, time constraints, store choice, nutrition, fast food |
JEL: | I12 I30 J22 R41 |
Date: | 2023–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16036&r=tre |
By: | Kim, Changmo; Lea, Jeremy D; Kannekanti, Venkata; Harvey, John T |
Abstract: | Weigh-in-motion (WIM) devices measure and record highway vehicle axle loads. The data they collect include axle loads and spacing, vehicle classification and gross weights, and travel speed. These WIM data are used for pavement design, management, and performance studies. In 2016, there were 123 WIM devices operating on sites throughout the California state-owned highway network, one of the densest and best maintained in the United States. The University of California Pavement Research Center (UCPRC) has studied California’s WIM data with the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) since 2007 to advance mechanistic-empirical (ME) pavement design procedures. Previously, the UCPRC completed the first analysis of the WIM data collected from 1998 to 2003 to discover similarities in axle load distributions at the WIM sites and then grouped them using cluster analysis to generate default traffic inputs for pavement design software. For this research, the UCPRC processed WIM data collected from 80 California WIM-measuring sites from 2004 to 2015, identified the axle load distribution for each site, and updated the earlier grouping using hierarchical cluster analysis. A decision tree was developed to classify WIM data into five WIM axle load spectra, which have been implemented in the Caltrans pavement management system database, PaveM, to generate truck traffic inputs in the CalME and Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) pavement design software tools used by Caltrans for asphalt and concrete pavement design, respectively. |
Keywords: | Engineering, weigh-in-motion, WIM, axle load spectra, axle load distribution, truck traffic, PaveM |
Date: | 2022–07–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt169477d9&r=tre |
By: | Jaller, Miguel; Pahwa, Anmol |
Abstract: | E-commerce can potentially make urban goods flow economically viable, environmentally efficient, and socially equitable. However, as e-retailers compete with increasingly consumer-focused services, urban freight witnesses a significant increase in associated distribution costs and negative externalities, particularly affecting those living close to logistics clusters. Hence, to remain competitive, e-retailers deploy alternate last-mile distribution strategies. These alternate strategies, such as those that include the use of electric delivery trucks for last-mile operations, a fleet of crowdsourced drivers for last-mile delivery, consolidation facilities coupled with light-duty delivery vehicles for a multi-echelon distribution, or collection-points for customer pickup, can restore sustainable urban goods flow. Thus, in this study, the authors investigate the opportunities and challenges associated with alternate last-mile distribution strategies for an e-retailer offering expedited service with rush delivery within strict timeframes. To this end, the authors formulate a last-mile network design (LMND) problem as a dynamic-stochastic two-echelon capacitated location routing problem with time-windows (DS-2E-C-LRP-TW) addressed with an adaptive large neighborhood search (ALNS) metaheuristic. View the NCST Project Webpage |
Keywords: | Business, Engineering, e-commerce, last-mile network design, sustainability, adaptive large neighborhood search |
Date: | 2023–04–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt5t76x0kh&r=tre |
By: | Jann Michael Weinand; Ganga Vandenberg; Stanley Risch; Johannes Behrens; Noah Pflugradt; Jochen Lin{\ss}en; Detlef Stolten |
Abstract: | Lithium is a critical material for the energy transition, but conventional procurement methods have significant environmental impacts. In this study, we utilize regional energy system optimizations to investigate the techno-economic potential of the low-carbon alternative of direct lithium extraction in deep geothermal plants. We show that geothermal plants will become cost-competitive in conjunction with lithium extraction, even under unfavorable conditions and partially displace photovoltaics, wind power, and storage from energy systems. Our analysis indicates that if 10% of municipalities in the Upper Rhine Graben area in Germany constructed deep geothermal plants, they could provide enough lithium to produce about 1.2 million electric vehicle battery packs per year, equivalent to 70% of today`s annual electric vehicle registrations in the European Union. This approach could offer significant environmental benefits and has high potential for mass application also in other countries, such as the United States, United Kingdom, France, and Italy, highlighting the importance of further research and development of this technology. |
Date: | 2023–04 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2304.07019&r=tre |
By: | Thierry Blayac (CEE-M, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, INRAE, Institut Agro, Montpellier, France); Patrice Bougette (Université Côte d'Azur; GREDEG, CNRS, France) |
Abstract: | This study estimates the competitive effects of horizontal mergers in the French long-distance bus industry. We examine the two mergers that followed the 2015 Deregulation Act (the Macron Law); we use an exclusive and exhaustive dataset that covers eight consecutive quarters. We analyze the merger effects by comparing bus links that were affected by mergers with those that were unaffected; we use difference-in-differences estimations. We find that the two mergers are associated with price increases of about 13.5% immediately that then moderate to 5.3%; and with the frequency decreases from -21.5% to -25.7%; we observe no effects on load factors. These findings show evidence of short-run anticompetitive effects, while the mergers under study were not scrutinized by the French competition agency, as they were below the notification thresholds. |
Keywords: | Long-distance bus industry, Mergers and acquisitions, Deregulated industry, Consolidation, Intramodal competition, Difference-in-differences estimation |
JEL: | K21 L12 L40 L42 |
Date: | 2022–09 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2022-34&r=tre |
By: | Loukaitou-Sideris, Anastasia; Handy, Susan L.; Ong, Paul M.; Barajas, Jesus M.; Wasserman, Jacob L.; Pech, Chhandara; Garcia Sanchez, Juan C.; Ramirez, Andres F.; Jain, Aakansha; Proussaloglou, Emmanuel; Nguyen, Andrea; Turner, Katherine; Fitzgibbon, Abigail; Kaeppelin, Francois; Ramirez, Felipe; Arenas, Marc |
Abstract: | California's freeways have come under increasing scrutiny for their disproportionately adverse impacts on lowincome populations and populations of color. This study uses empirical research to not only understand but also quantify and describe in detail the historical impacts of freeways on communities of color in four California cities and areas: Pasadena, Pacoima, Sacramento, and San José. In these neighborhoods, freeways displaced many residents, significantly harmed those that remained, and left communities divided and depleted. The four cases differ in notable ways, but they share a disproportionate impact of freeway construction on communities of color. In Pasadena and Pacoima, decision-makers chose routes that displaced a greater share of households of color than proposed alternatives. Demolition and displacement were the most visible and immediate effects of the freeways, but toxic pollution, noise, economic decline, and stigmatization remained long after. In suburban areas, white, affluent interests often succeeded in pushing freeways to more powerless neighborhoods. Massive roadway construction complemented other destructive governmental actions such as urban renewal and redlining. Freeways and suburbanization were key components in the creation of a spatial mismatch between jobs and housing for people of color, with few transportation options to overcome it. Understanding the history of racism in freeway development can inform restorative justice in these areas. |
Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, freeway history, freeway siting, Pasadena, Pacoima, Sacramento, San José, neighborhoods of color |
Date: | 2023–03–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt7mj2b24q&r=tre |
By: | Bolotnyy, Valentin (Hoover Institution, Stanford U); Vasserman, Shoshana (Stanford U) |
Abstract: | Most U.S. government spending on highways and bridges is done through “scaling†procurement auctions, in which private construction firms submit unit price bids for each piece of material required to complete a project. Using data on bridge maintenance projects undertaken by the Massachusetts Department of Transportation (MassDOT), we present evidence that firm bidding behavior in this context is consistent with opti- mal skewing under risk aversion: firms limit their risk exposure by placing lower unit bids on items with greater uncertainty. We estimate the amount of uncertainty in each auction, and the distribution of bidders’ private costs and risk aversion. Simulating equilibrium item-level bids under counterfactual settings, we estimate the fraction of project spending that is due to risk and evaluate auction mechanisms under considera- tion by policymakers. We find that scaling auctions provide substantial savings relative to lump sum auctions and show how our framework can be used to evaluate alternative auction designs. |
Date: | 2023–03 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:stabus:3887&r=tre |
By: | Bertolotti, Fabio; Gavazza, Alessandro; Lanteri, Andrea |
Abstract: | We study the role of new-product quality for the dynamics of durable-goods expenditures around the Great Recession. We assemble a rich dataset on US new-car markets during 2004-2012, combining data on transaction prices with detailed information about vehicles’ technical characteristics. During the recession, a reallocation of expenditures away from high-quality new models accounts for a significant decline in the dispersion of expenditures. In turn, car manufacturers introduced new models of lower quality. The drop in new-model quality persistently depressed the technology embodied in vehicles, and likely contributed to the slow recovery of expenditures. |
Keywords: | ERC-Consolidator Grant Award No. 771004 |
JEL: | E21 E23 E32 |
Date: | 2023–05–01 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:117851&r=tre |
By: | Paul Blanchard (Trinity College Dublin); Douglas Gollin (University of Oxford); Martina Kirchberger (Trinity College Dublin) |
Abstract: | This paper explores the within-country movements of people in three African countries. Although previous studies in other low-income settings have examined patterns of seasonal migration and daily commuting, much less is known about mobility at other temporal frequencies. This paper draws on a novel source of data from smartphone locations. These data allow us to observe the movements of a large set of individuals over a one-year period. We can characterize with considerable detail the locations that people visit and the frequency with which they make trips. The average smartphone user in our data ventures more than 10 km from home on 12-15% of the days when they are observed. On average, when we observe them away from home, our users are typically 35-50 km from home. We can characterize many of the specific locations that people visit when they are away from home. These include locations associated with shops and markets, government offices, and places offering a range of goods, services, and recreational venues. Big cities seem to be particularly important destinations, perhaps reflecting the range of amenities that they offer to visitors. We develop a conceptual framework that characterizes the role of visits for individuals and provides a number of testable predictions that are consistent with the movement patterns that we observe in the data. Although our sample of smartphone users is not representative of national populations, their mobility patterns offer useful insights into spatial frictions and the geographic patterns of economic activity. |
Date: | 2023–04 |
URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep0823&r=tre |