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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Philip Adams; Louise Roos |
| Abstract: | Greenhouse gas emissions in Jordan come primarily from the combustion of refined oil products in transport. Hence, plans to reduce emissions focus primarily on the transport sector. These plans, often detailed from a technological point of view, seldom present reasoned economic measures of likely consequences. This paper provides an assessment of the likely economic costs and benefits for Jordan of two typical schemes to reduce the environmental effects of transport. Both relate to the delivery of passenger services. The first is to encourage the uptake of Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) at the expense of Internal Combustion Vehicles (ICVs) and, to a lesser extent, hybrid vehicles. The second is to invest in new public transport infrastructure -- phase 2 of the Bus Rapid Transport system -- assisting to reduce the use of private vehicles principally in urban areas. The analysis is based on scenarios to 2050 constructed using a large model of Jordan's economy, named JorGE. JorGE is calibrated to data for 2020 and has a detailed industrial classification. That classification recognizes electricity produced by several different conventional fossil fuel and renewable technologies and a number of road transport service industries. The road transport industries distinguish passenger from freight services. For passenger services there are separate industries producing public transport services and private transport services. The latter is further disaggregated into services provided by the three different passenger vehicle types -- ICVs, EVs and Hybrids. |
| Keywords: | CGE modelling, electric vehicles (BEV), internal combustion vehicles (ICV), greenhouse gas, public transport |
| JEL: | C68 R41 |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-339&r=tre |
| By: | Ioannou, Petros; Chen, Pengfei |
| Abstract: | Today’s airport terminals face a critical problem of traffic congestion in the terminal area partly caused by uncoordinated shuttle operations. The congestion near pick-up and drop-off points negatively affects passenger traffic leading to unnecessary idling, delays and congestion with negative impact on air quality and mobility. The need for an intelligent shuttle management system becomes more urgent with the development of information technologies, battery electric shuttles and autonomous vehicles. In this project, we developed a centrally coordinated shuttle scheduling and routing management system for mixed fleets of diesel and electric shuttles using a digital twin of LAX to LA downtown traffic road network by optimizing the total combined cost of energy consumption and travel time. A Co-Simulation Optimization method is used to solve the problem. The objective is to reduce congestion at the designated pick up and drop off points due to different shuttles showing up at these points during overlapping time windows which exceed the curb capacity. Another objective is to integrate into the system mixed fleet of shuttles that include diesel and battery operated. The proposed centrally coordinated shuttle scheduling and routing management system takes into account the characteristics of mixed shuttle fleets and is shown to reduce the operational cost such as energy consumption and delays. The results also suggest the deployment of electric shuttles in order to reduce emissions and improve air quality further. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Shuttle Scheduling and Routing, Load Balancing System, Co-Simulation, Mixed Shuttle Fleet, Electric Shuttle, Autonomous Shuttle |
| Date: | 2023–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt6gg7r6c5&r=tre |
| By: | Stéphanie Souche-Le Corvec (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - ENTPE - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | There are many different ways of practicing coworking, and many different forms of CoWorking Spaces (CWSs). In this paper, we define CWSs in economic and spatial terms, and we provide some explanations on the transport mode used to travel to. Is the transport mode used to get to CWSs the same as that which is usually used for travel for work purposes? Does the spatial location of the CWS (in large city - medium-sized town - rural community) have an impact on the transport mode choice? The key issue is determining whether these new working spaces favor a shift in travel behavior toward practices less centered on the car. We use a survey of coworkers conducted in 2019 in the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes Region (AURA), from which data is processed using a binomial logit model. The estimation results show that the mode choice for traveling to CWSs does not allow us to identify a characteristic that is fundamentally different from mode choice for work purpose. However, the availability of a parking place in CWSs is identified as a possible public policy level. |
| Keywords: | Transport modes, Mode choice, Coworking, Binomial logit model |
| Date: | 2023–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04010016&r=tre |
| By: | Carlos Gaete-Morales; Julius J\"ohrens; Florian Heining; Wolf-Peter Schill |
| Abstract: | In the passenger car segment, battery-electric vehicles (BEV) have emerged as the most promising option to decarbonize transportation. For heavy-duty vehicles (HDV), the technology space still appears to be more open. Aside from BEV, electric road systems (ERS) for dynamic power transfer are discussed, as well as indirect electrification with trucks that use hydrogen fuel cells or e-fuels. Here we investigate the power sector implications of these alternative options. We apply an open-source capacity expansion model to future scenarios of Germany with high renewable energy shares, drawing on detailed route-based truck traffic data. Results show that power sector costs are lowest for flexibly charged BEV that also carry out vehicle-to-grid operations, and highest for HDV using e-fuels. If BEV and ERS-BEV are not charged in an optimized way, power sector costs increase, but are still substantially lower than in scenarios with hydrogen or e-fuels. This is a consequence of the relatively poor energy efficiency of indirect HDV electrification, which outweighs its temporal flexibility benefits. We further find a higher use of solar PV for BEV and ERS-BEV, and a higher use of wind power and, to some extent, fossil generators for hydrogen and e-fuels. |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2303.16629&r=tre |
| By: | Wang, Qian; Miller, Marshall; Fulton, Lewis |
| Abstract: | In this study, we investigate how potential changes in US light-duty and medium/heavy-duty vehicle technology and fuel mix from 2020 to 2050 may affect the transition to a very low-carbon future in the United States. Given US targets to reach 50% or more zero-emission vehicle sales by 2030, we consider new sales trajectories for battery-electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and rates of uptake across the country needed to reach these. We also consider biofuels use (ethanol and renewable diesel) in remaining internal combustion engine cars and trucks to minimize GHG emissions from those vehicles. Costs of all vehicles sold, and their fuel and other operating costs, are calculated and projected. To account for characteristics of specific vehicle types (e.g., weight, application, fuel economy, drive cycle, etc.), we disaggregate light-duty vehicles and medium/heavy-duty vehicles into ten subcategories. Relative to a business-as-usual case, we develop a series of low-carbon scenarios where three regions of the US adopt zero-emission vehicles at different rates. One is California, where the strongest targets and policies have been set. We also consider “Section 177” states that have agreed to adopt at least some California policies, and the third is the remaining states. Our findings suggest that even slower adoption scenarios can reduce greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 by 90% of 2015 levels. Greater reductions can be attained with rapid adoption cases. However, even a case with all US states adopting California-style policies with a five-year delay—for LDVs, essentially the equivalent of the April 2023 regulatory proposals of the US EPA—may not be quite sufficient to reach the apparent US targets. Despite significant upfront investments required to undertake transitions in the near-term, these scenarios all feature large net savings to consumers after 2030 (or sooner) as fuel and maintenance savings exceed higher costs in purchasing vehicles. Overall net savings from 2020 to 2050 (mostly accrued after 2030) are in the range of $1.7 to $4.8 trillion. However, achieving these full benefits could be challenging due to the need for a rapid rate of zero-emission vehicle adoption and possibly high production volumes of low-carbon biofuels. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2023–04–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3tb2c3js&r=tre |
| By: | Echeverría, Lucía; Gimenez-Nadal, J. Ignacio; Molina, José Alberto |
| Abstract: | Mobility gives individuals access to different daily activities, facilities, and places, but at the cost of imposing environmental externalities. The sustainable growth of society is linked to green mobility (e.g., public transport, walking, cycling) as a way to alleviate individual carbon footprints. This study explores the socio-demographic profile of individuals performing green travel (public and active modes of transport) and identifies cross-country differences in green travel behavior. We rely on information from the Multinational Time Use Study, MTUS, for Bulgaria, Canada, Spain, France, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and the United States, from 2000 to 2019. We estimate Ordinary Least Squares regressions modelling individual decisions regarding green mobility. Our results indicate that the socio-demographic and family profile of travelers is not homogenous across green modes of transport, with walking as a mode of travel exhibiting a much more consistent profile, across countries, in comparison to the use of public transport and cycling. Results indicate that some countries are more prone to green travel, and that transport infrastructure is a factor in the proportion of time spent on both public and active transport. Our findings help in understanding who is committed to green mobility, while revealing interesting systematic differences across countries |
| Keywords: | Perfil del Viajero; Medios de Transporte; Transporte No Motorizado; Transporte Público; 2000-2019; |
| Date: | 2022–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nmp:nuland:3755&r=tre |
| By: | Tal, Gil; Pares, Francisco; Busch, Pablo; Chandra, Minal |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2023–04–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt1pt8q0zc&r=tre |
| By: | Johannes Mauritzen |
| Abstract: | A fundemantal and unanswered question for the widely shared goal of electrifying passenger vehicles is how the price of electricity, which can vary greatly across countries and regions, affects buying behavior. I make use of a natural experiment in Norway in the period 2021-2022 when large price differences between north and south emerged to estimate the effect of electricity prices on the decision to purchase a pure battery-electric vehicle. Simple difference estimates along the border of the price zones as well as a difference-in-difference regression model suggest a significant but economically modest effect of a 2-4\% reduction in the probability of purchasing an electric vehicle in the high price zone. A counterfactual simulation suggests that there would have been about 3000 to 6000 fewer electric vehicles sold in the high-price south compared to a scenario where the south had equally low prices as in the north. |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2304.01709&r=tre |
| By: | Tal, Gil; Pares, Francisco; Busch, Pablo; Chandra, Minal |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2023–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt57s3t1hg&r=tre |
| By: | Thierry Blayac (CEE-M, Univ Montpellier, CNRS, INRAE, Institut Agro, Montpellier, France); Patrice Bougette (Université Côte d'Azur; GREDEG, CNRS, France); Florent Laroche (Université Lyon 2; LAET, CNRS, France) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an empirical analysis of the determinants of service prices and frequencies of conventional high-speed rail (HSR) in France. We use original data for the period 09/2019-03/2020 and consider the intensity of intermodal competition and the diversification strategy of the incumbent rail operator. The main econometric results show that the determinants of the price per kilometer of conventional HSR services (1st and 2nd class) are partly common (especially for the variables explaining the technical characteristics of the routes and the alternative offer) and partly specific (competitive environment, economic and demographic environment). Frequencies depend mainly on travel time. On the routes for which the conventional HSR does not provide a quality service (frequency and/or price), a complementary alternative offer compensates the low frequency of conventional HSR services. |
| Keywords: | HSR; Intermodal competition; Multiproduct firms' strategies; Low-cost transportation; France |
| Date: | 2023–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2023-01&r=tre |
| By: | Benoliel, Peter; Hernandez Rios, Kevin; Garcia Sanchez, Juan Carlos; Tal, Gil |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2023–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt7qh0x0mf&r=tre |
| By: | Pares, Francisco; Iskakov, Galym; Kendall, Alissa |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2023–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt4b759563&r=tre |
| By: | Ferrari, Emanuele; Christidis, Panayotis |
| Abstract: | The paper evaluates the impact of the increase of freight transport costs on the global economy. Using a detailed transport database, a set of detailed shocks by transportation mode, regions and commodities feed a multi-region, recursive dynamic general equilibrium model which analyses the sectorial (agri-food sectors, manufacturing) and macroeconomic (trade, wide-economic indicators) impacts of the recent surge in shipping costs. |
| Keywords: | Public Economics, International Relations/Trade |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:pugtwp:333463&r=tre |
| By: | Tal, Gil; Benoliel, Peter K; Garcia Sanchez, Juan Carlos; Hernandez Rios, Kevin |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2023–04–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt5nv441q2&r=tre |
| By: | Guilhem Lecouteux (Université Côte d'Azur; GREDEG, CNRS, France); Léonard Moulin (INED) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to measure the role of social inuence in transport mode switch to cycling. We propose an original approach to measure in the context of a natural experiment the inuence of social factors on individual intentions within the theory of interpersonal behaviour, by modelling explicitly the diusion of cycling within the population. We consider the time period following the end of the rst COVID-19- lockdown in May 2020 in Paris, France, and estimate a simple model of social imitation based on data from the City of Paris' Open Data initiative, integrating also in our estimation geographical and temporal xed-eects, as well as controls for the level of precipitation. We nd that the increasing adoption of cycling between May and July 2020 can indeed be explained as the result of a new social dynamic tending to increase the switching rate between transport modes. |
| Keywords: | Coronapistes, social imitation, urban design, cycling adoption, COVID-19, theory of interpersonal behaviour |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gre:wpaper:2023-02&r=tre |
| By: | Jiayang Li; Zhaoran Wang; Yu Marco Nie |
| Abstract: | As one of the most fundamental concepts in transportation science, Wardrop equilibrium (WE) has always had a relatively weak behavioral underpinning. To strengthen this foundation, one must reckon with bounded rationality in human decision-making processes, such as the lack of accurate information, limited computing power, and sub-optimal choices. This retreat from behavioral perfectionism in the literature, however, was typically accompanied by a conceptual modification of WE. Here we show that giving up perfect rationality need not force a departure from WE. On the contrary, WE can be reached with global stability in a routing game played by boundedly rational travelers. We achieve this result by developing a day-to-day (DTD) dynamical model that mimics how travelers gradually adjust their route valuations, hence choice probabilities, based on past experiences. Our model, called cumulative logit (CULO), resembles the classical DTD models but makes a crucial change: whereas the classical models assume routes are valued based on the cost averaged over historical data, ours values the routes based on the cost accumulated. To describe route choice behaviors, the CULO model only uses two parameters, one accounting for the rate at which the future route cost is discounted in the valuation relative to the past ones and the other describing the sensitivity of route choice probabilities to valuation differences. We prove that the CULO model always converges to WE, regardless of the initial point, as long as the behavioral parameters satisfy certain mild conditions. Our theory thus upholds WE's role as a benchmark in transportation systems analysis. It also resolves the theoretical challenge posed by Harsanyi's instability problem by explaining why equally good routes at WE are selected with different probabilities. |
| Date: | 2023–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2304.02500&r=tre |
| By: | Aniko …ry (Cowles Foundation, Yale University); Ali Horta su (University of Chicago and NBER); Kevin Williams (Cowles Foundation, Yale University) |
| Abstract: | We introduce a model of dynamic pricing in perishable goods markets with competition and provide conditions for equilibrium uniqueness. Pricing dynamics are rich because both own and competitor scarcity affect future profits. We identify new competitive forces that can lead to misallocation due to selling units too quickly: the Bertrand scarcity trap. We empirically estimate our model using daily prices and bookings for competing U.S. airlines. We compare competitive equilibrium outcomes to those where firms use pricing heuristics based on observed internal pricing rules at a large airline. We find that pricing heuristics increase revenues (4-5%) and consumer surplus (3%). |
| JEL: | C70 C73 D21 D22 D43 D60 L13 L93 |
| Date: | 2022–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2341r1&r=tre |