|
on Transport Economics |
| By: | Tamara Sheldon; Rubal Dua; Omar Al Harbi (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | The transportation sector accounts for 24% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (IEA 2020). Road transport is the most utilized mode because of its convenience (Van Essen 2008). However, it is also the most emissions intensive mode, accounting for 75% of global transport GHG emissions, with roughly 44% coming from road passenger vehicles alone (IEA 2020). |
| Keywords: | Fleet Fuel Economy, Freight transport activity, |
| Date: | 2021–06–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2021-dp07&r= |
| By: | Jussila Hammes, Johanna (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)); Volden, Gro Holst (NTNU – Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway); Welde, Morten (NTNU – Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway); Börjesson, Maria (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)); Odeck, James (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)) |
| Abstract: | We use cost-benefit data from 1052 projects in Norway and Sweden to analyse ex ante factors that can explain which characteristics of transport infrastructure projects explain high value for money. The aim is to identify characteristics that can be used in assessments of projects before a cost-benefit analysis is feasible. We find that in Norway, road toll financing is a good indicator of high value projects, especially in the poorer municipalities. In Sweden, co-financing serves to raise investment volumes, but tends to lead to worse value for money. In Sweden, congestion seems to be the biggest problem in medium-income municipalities, while there are traffic safety benefits to be obtained in the rural areas. A higher initial capacity on a link raises both benefits and costs, and costs are higher in more densely populated areas in both countries. We find diminishing economies of scale in Norway and increasing economies of scale in Sweden. |
| Keywords: | CBA; Transport infrastructure planning; Value for money |
| JEL: | R40 R42 |
| Date: | 2021–06–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vtiwps:2021_004&r= |
| By: | Echeverría, Lucía (University of Zaragoza); Gimenez-Nadal, J. Ignacio (University of Zaragoza); Molina, José Alberto (University of Zaragoza) |
| Abstract: | Recent years have witnessed efforts worldwide to promote green mobility, aimed at boosting sustainable economic growth. However, how green mobility relates to travelers' well-being remains an open question. We explore whether "green" modes of transportation (public transit and walking/cycling) are associated with higher levels of well-being in comparison to private driving, placing special focus on different types of travel (related to paid work, unpaid work, personal care, childcare, and leisure). We use the UK Time Use Survey (UKTUS) from 2014-2015, and exploit information on self-reported enjoyment during travel, as a measure of experienced well-being. We estimate Ordinary Least Squares and Random Effects regressions for each travel category, and find relative, positive effects of physical transport on enjoyment, in terms of personal care and leisure, while the relative negative effects of public transport are observed for childcare and work/paid travel, in relationship to traditional driving modes. Our evidence suggests a need to develop strategies to effectively promote mobility by physical modes, while improving the experience of public transit users. |
| Keywords: | subjective well-being, green travelling, walking/cycling, public transport |
| JEL: | R4 J22 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14430&r= |
| By: | Davide Cerruti (CER–ETH – Center of Economic Research at ETH Zurich, Switzerland); Massimo Filippini (CER–ETH – Center of Economic Research at ETH Zurich and Facoltà di Scienze Economiche, Università della Svizzera Italiana, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | Vehicle accidents represent an important source of externalities from driving. Using a detailed dataset on accident location and characteristics in Switzerland, we estimate the effect of switching from a 50 km/h speed limit to a 30 km/h limit on the probability of vehicle accident injuries. After an initial country-wide analysis, we exploit the quasi-experimental variation of the timing of introduction of 30 km/h zones in the municipality of Basel, using a difference in differences strategy. We find a significant reduction in accident severity due to lower speed limits, and substantial heterogeneities based on the circumstances of the accident. |
| Keywords: | Speed limits; vehicle accidents; 30 km/h zones; externalities; road transport; urban roads |
| JEL: | R41 R42 R48 H41 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eth:wpswif:21-356&r= |
| By: | Posada, H; García-Suaza, A |
| Abstract: | Transportation policies have an important incidence on the allocation of resources within cities. Therefore, investigating the impacts of transit investment is relevant especially in developing countries where informal housing is highly prevalent and spatial disparities are remarkable. We study the impact of a transit expansion of the Metrocable system in Medellín (Colombia) as a natural scenario to understand the causal links between lowering access cost and informal housing. Using a difference-in-difference identification strategy, we estimate that the expasion of Line H of Metrocable reduces informal housing up to 15 percentage points. We also show that the magnitude of the effect depends on the distance to the intervention. When exploring potential mechanisms mediating the analyzed causal relation we find that the labor market plays a crucial role. |
| Keywords: | Informal housing; Transportation cost; Land value; Informal labormarket; Colombia |
| JEL: | R41 R42 R31 J46 |
| Date: | 2021–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000561:019289&r= |
| By: | James E. Archsmith; Erich Muehlegger; David S. Rapson |
| Abstract: | This paper identifies and quantifies major determinants of future electric vehicle (EV) demand in order to inform widely-held aspirations for market growth. Our model compares three channels that will affect EV market share in the United States from 2020-2035: intrinsic (no-subsidy) EV demand growth, net-of-subsidy EV cost declines (e.g. batteries), and government subsidies. Geographic variation in preferences for sedans and light trucks highlights the importance of viable EV alternatives to conventional light trucks; belief in climate change is highly correlated with EV adoption patterns; and the first $500 billion in cumulative nationwide EV subsidies is associated a 7-10 percent increase in EV market share in 2035, an effect that diminishes as subsidies increase. The rate of intrinsic demand growth dwarfs the impact of demand-side subsidies and battery cost declines, highlighting the importance of non-monetary factors (e.g. charging infrastructure, product quality and/or cultural acceptance) on EV demand. |
| JEL: | H23 Q47 Q48 Q5 R4 |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28933&r= |
| By: | Gkiotsalitis, K.; Schmidt, M.E.; van der Hurk, E. |
| Abstract: | Over the last years, there have been initiated several pilots with autonomous minibusses. Unlike regular bus services, autonomous minibusses serve a limited number of stops and have more flexible schedules since they do not require bus drivers. This allows the operation of a line through a flexible combination of sublines, where a subline serves a subset of consecutive stops in the same order as the original line. This paper studies the subline frequency setting (SFS) problem under uncertain passenger demand. We present a frequency setting model that assigns autonomous minibusses to sublines in order to exploit the available resources as much as possible and minimize the operational and passenger waiting time costs. Passenger waiting time costs may depend on the combination of several lines whose frequencies cannot be perfectly aligned for each passenger journey. We present a new estimation of the expected waiting time for passengers to improve the accuracy of the passenger waiting time costs in the case of sublines. Our SFS model is originally formulated as a MINLP and reformulated as a MILP that can be solved to global optimality. Further, we explicitly consider the uncertainty of passenger demand in the optimization process by formulating a stochastic optimization model. The performances of our stochastic and deterministic models that assign minibusses to sublines are tested under various passenger demand scenarios in the 14-stop autonomous minibus line in Eberbach, Germany and a fictional bus line with 20 bus stops. Results show potential improvements in operational costs in the range of 10-40% depending on the passenger demand profile. |
| Keywords: | autonomous minibusses, vehicle scheduling, frequency setting, stochastic optimization, short-turning, demand uncertainty |
| Date: | 2021–06–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:eureri:135595&r= |
| By: | Cornelis Dirk van Goeverden |
| Abstract: | Travel speed is an intrinsic feature of transport, and enlarging the speed is considered as beneficial. The benefit of a speed increase is generally assessed as the value of the saved travel time. However, this approach conflicts with the observation that time spent on travelling is rather constant and might not be affected by speed changes. The paper aims to define the benefits of a speed increase and addresses two research questions. First, how will a speed increase in person transport work out, which factors are affected? Second, is the value of time a good proxy for the value of speed? Based on studies on time spending and research on the association between speed and land use, we argue that human wealth could be the main affected factor by speed changes, rather than time or access. Then the value of time is not a good proxy for the value of speed: the benefits of a wealth increase are negatively correlated with prosperity following the law of diminishing marginal utility, while the calculated benefits of saved travel time prove to be positively correlated. The inadequacy of the value of time is explained by some shortcomings with respect to the willingness to pay that is generally used for assessing the value of time: people do not predict correctly the personal benefits that will be gained from a decision, and they neglect the social impacts. |
| Date: | 2021–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2106.06599&r= |
| By: | Mbiankeu Nguea, Stéphane |
| Abstract: | Better access to improved infrastructure services is one of the components of a favourable investment climate for foreign investors and an important engine for sustainable economic growth. This study investigates the impact of communication, energy and transport infrastructure development on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Cameroon over the period 1984-2014. Auto Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) bounds test approach to cointegration has been applied to analyse the annual time series data coming from United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and World Development Indicators (WDI). The results show that communication infrastructure exerts a positive and significant impact on FDI inflows. In addition, energy infrastructure reduces the volume of FDI inflows, while transport infrastructure is not relevant in attracting FDI inflows. According to these findings, this study recommends that the government of Cameroon pay further attention to improving the quality of infrastructure in order to attract more FDI. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure, ARDL, FDI, Cameroon |
| JEL: | F21 H41 R42 |
| Date: | 2021–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:108372&r= |
| By: | Andersson, Angelica (Research Programme in Transport Economics); Engelson, Leonid (Research Programme in Transport Economics); Börjesson, Maria (Research Programme in Transport Economics); Daly, Andrew (Research Programme in Transport Economics); Kristoffersson, Ida (Research Programme in Transport Economics) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we develop two methods for the use of mobile phone data to support the estimation of long-distance mode choice models. Both methods are based on logit formulations in which we define likelihood functions and use maximum likelihood estimation. Mobile phone data consists of information about a sequence of antennae that have detected each phone, so the mode choice is not actually observed. In the first trip-based method, the mode of each trip is inferred by a separate procedure, and the estimation process is then straightforward. However, since it is usually not possible to determine the mode choice with certainty, this method might give biased results. In our second antenna-based method we therefore base the likelihood function on the sequences of antennae that have detected the phones. The estimation aims at finding a parameter vector in the mode choice model that would explain the observed sequences best. The main challenge with the antenna-based method is the need for detailed resolution of the available data, i.e., that the mobile phone operator might not be willing or able to provide the modeller with sequences of antennae that have detected the phones. In this paper we show the derivation of the two methods, that they coincide in case of certainty about the chosen mode and discuss the validity of assumptions and their advantages and disadvantages. Furthermore, we apply the first trip-based method to empirical data and compare the results of two different ways of implementing it. |
| Keywords: | Demand model; Mode choice; Mobile phone network data; Travel behaviour; Long-distance travel |
| JEL: | C18 C35 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2021–06–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:trnspr:2021_001&r= |
| By: | Nathalie Picard |
| Abstract: | Transport and mobility trends are heavily influenced by urban dynamics, especially in terms of residential and job location. Conversely, commuting time, and more generally transport supply, are major determinants of residential and job location. In addition, real estate prices depend on the supply and demand for dwellings and offices, which in turn depend on real estate prices. All these interactions, at the core of the Land Use and Transport Interactions (LUTI) models, give rise to the Land Use and Transport version of the chicken-and-egg problem. For the econometrician, who aims at estimating such interactions, the chicken-and-egg problem refers to endogeneity. We illustrate the main sources of endogeneity (common determinants, reversed causality and simultaneity of decisions) in the context of the four-step model. For the policy maker, the question is not which comes first, but rather which one is the most sensitive to public policies, and how can public policies be optimized given the mutual influences between transport, land use and economic growth, both in the short run and in the long run. Public policy optimization and evaluation requires to understand and measure the behavioural reactions of households, firms and other agents to public policies, as well as their redistributive effects. |
| Keywords: | Transport demand, trends, Endogeneity, causality, policy implications. |
| JEL: | R4 R5 R38 R21 O18 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2021-15&r= |
| By: | Baranzini, Andrea; Carattini, Stefano; Tesauro, Linda |
| Abstract: | While instruments to price congestion exist since the 1970s, less than a dozen cities around the world have a cordon or zone pricing scheme. Geneva, Switzerland, may be soon joining them. This paper builds on a detailed review of the existing schemes to identify a set of plausible design options for the Geneva congestion charge. In turn, it analyzes their acceptability, leveraging a large survey of residents of both Geneva and the surrounding areas of Switzerland and France. Our original approach combines a discrete choice experiment with randomized informational treatments. We consider an extensive set of attributes, such as perimeter, price and price modulation, use of revenues, and exemption levels and beneficiaries. The informational treatments address potential biased beliefs concerning the charge’s expected effects on congestion and pollution. We find that public support depends crucially on the policy design. We identify an important demand for exemptions, which, albeit frequently used in the design of environmental taxation, is underexplored in the analysis of public support. This demand for exemptions is not motivated by efficiency reasons. It comes mostly by local residents, for local residents. Further, people show a marked preference for constant prices, even if efficiency would point to dynamic pricing based on external costs. Hence, we highlight a clear trade-off between efficiency and acceptability. However, we also show, causally, that this gap can in part be closed, with information provision. Analyzing heterogeneity, we show that preferences vary substantially with where people live and how they commute. Even so, we identify several designs that reach majority support. |
| Keywords: | acceptability; congestion charge; poicy design; public support; road pricing; Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy; PZ00P1_180006/1 |
| JEL: | D72 H23 Q53 Q58 R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2021–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:110870&r= |