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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Chakraborty, Debapriya; Buch, Koral; Tal, Gil |
| Abstract: | While plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) adoption has been rising over the past decade, with PEVs making-up about 7.8% of California’s new vehicle sales in 2019, the trend needs to quickly accelerate for the state to reach its goals of 100% zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales by 2035 and a zero-carbon economy by 2045. California has various incentive programs to encourage PEV adoption, but policymakers expect to phase these incentives out as PEVs reach cost parity with conventional internal combustion engine vehicles. Comparing the total cost of ownership—purchase price, operational costs, and resale value—of PEVs or other ZEVs with that of conventional vehicles can inform policy decisions about incentive programs and inform consumers’ purchase decisions, by accounting for PEVs’ higher purchase prices but lower fuel and maintenance costs. Recent research has estimated that cost parity between PEVs and conventional vehicles will be achieved over the next decade. However, the timeline depends on each study’s assumptions about technology improvement and travel behavior. These studies often assign a single total cost of ownership to a specific vehicle model, ignoring the fact that costs can vary across households based on the type of vehicle adopted, travel behavior, access to charging and refueling facilities, gasoline and electricity prices, and other factors. Researchers at the University of California, Davis estimated PEVs’ total cost of ownership for the period of 2020–2030, their cost-competitiveness with conventional vehicles, and consequently the cost of electrification of California’s fleet of more than 30 million light-duty vehicles. The researchers analyzed six market segments, defined by household income and housing type, to account for the heterogeneity in total cost of ownership. The cost of electrification analysis also included fuel cell electric vehicles and was extended out to 2045 to align with California’s emission reduction goals. This policy brief summarizes findings from that research and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Total cost of ownership, zero emission vehicles, teardown analysis, market segments |
| Date: | 2021–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt8wz0c90f&r= |
| By: | Geoffrey L. Cueto; Francis Aldrine A. Uy; Keith Anshilo Diaz |
| Abstract: | General Santos City, as the tuna capital of the Philippines, relies with the presence of tricycles in moving people and goods. Considered as a highly-urbanized city, General Santos City serves as vital link of the entire SOCKSARGEN region's economic activities. With the current thrust of the city in providing a sustainable transport service, several options were identified to adopt in the entire city, that includes cleaner and better transport mode. Electric tricycle is an after sought alternative that offers better choice in terms of identified factors of sustainable transport: reliability, safety, comfort, environment, affordability, and facility. A literature review was conducted to provide a comparison of cost and emission between a motorized tricycle and an e-tricycle. The study identified the existing tricycle industry of the city and reviewed the modal share with the city's travel pattern. The survey revealed a number of hazards were with the current motorized tricycle that needs to address for the welfare of the passengers and drivers. The study favors the shift to adopting E-tricycle. The model derived from binary logistics regression provided a 72.72% model accuracy. Based from the results and findings, electric tricycle can be an alternative mode of public transport in the city that highly support sustainable option that provides local populace to improve their quality of life through mobility and economic activity. Further recommendation to local policy makers in the transport sector of the city include the clustering of barangays for better traffic management and franchise regulation, the inclusion of transport-related infrastructure related to tricycle service with their investment planning and programming, the roll out and implementation of tricycle code of the city, and the piloting activity of introducing e-tricycle in the city. |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2104.08182&r= |
| By: | Klanjčić, Marina; Gauvin, Laetitia; Tizzoni, Michele (ISI Foundation); Szell, Michael (IT University of Copenhagen) |
| Abstract: | One of the targets of the UN Sustainable Development Goals is to substantially reduce the number of global deaths and injuries from road traffic collisions. To this aim, European cities adopted various urban mobility policies, which has led to a heterogeneous number of injuries across Europe. Monitoring the discrepancies in injuries and understanding the most efficient policies are keys to achieve the objectives of Vision Zero, a multi-national road traffic safety project that aims at zero fatalities or serious injuries linked to road traffic. Here, we identify urban features that are determinants of vulnerable road user safety through the analysis of inter-mode collision data across European cities. We first build up a data set of urban road crashes and their participants from 24 cities in 5 European countries, using the widely recommended KSI indicator (killed or seriously injured individuals) as a safety performance metric. Modelling the casualty matrices including road infrastructure characteristics and modal share distribution of the different cities, we observe that cities with the highest rates of walking and cycling modal shares are the safest for the most vulnerable users. Instead, a higher presence of low-speed limited roads seems to only significantly reduce the number of injuries of car occupants. Our results suggest that policies aimed at increasing the modal share of walking and cycling are key to improve road safety for all road users. |
| Date: | 2021–04–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:89cyu&r= |
| By: | Brown, Austin L.; Sperling, Daniel; Austin, Bernadette; DeShazo, JR; Fulton, Lew; Lipman, Timmothy; Murphy, Colin; Saphores, Jean Daniel; Tal, Gil |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this report is to provide a research-driven analysis of options that can put California on a pathway to achieve carbon-neutral transportation by 2045. The report comprises thirteen sections. Section 1 provides an overview of the major components of transportation systems and how those components interact. Section 2 discusses the impacts the COVID-19 pandemic has had on transportation. Section 3 discusses California’s current transportation-policy landscape. These three sections were previously published as a synthesis report. Section 4 analyzes the different carbon scenarios, focusing on “business as usual” (BAU) and Low Carbon (LC1). Section 5 provides an overview of key policy mechanisms to utilize in decarbonizing transportation. Section 6 is an analysis of the light-duty vehicle sector, section 7 is the medium- and heavy-duty vehicle sectors, section 8 is reducing and electrifying vehicle miles traveled, and section 9 is an analysis of transportation fuels and their lifecycle. The following sections are an analysis of external costs and benefits: section 10 analyzes the health impacts of decarbonizing transportation, section 11 analyzes equity and environmental justice, and section 12 analyzes workforce and labor impacts. Finally, future research needs are provided in section 13. The study overall finds that cost-effective pathways to carbon-neutral transportation in California exist, but that they will require significant acceleration in a wide variety of policies. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Greenhouse gases, carbon emissions, decarbonization, transportationpolicy, environmental policy, policy analysis, trucks, vehicle miles of travel, social equity, environmental justice, alternate fuels, labor force |
| Date: | 2021–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt3np3p2t0&r= |
| By: | Dionne, Georges (HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management); Desjardins, Denise (HEC Montreal, Canada Research Chair in Risk Management); Angers, Jean-François (University of Montreal) |
| Abstract: | Road safety for fleets of vehicles has been neglected in the insurance literature, mainly because appropriate data is not available. This paper makes a threefold contribution: 1) Produce statistics on current fleets’ road safety offences using a panel of 20 years of data on truck fleets; 2) relate these offences to fleets’ accidents; and 3) identify and classify the riskiest fleets for insurance ratemaking based on past experience in managing road safety. Our results show a substantial heterogeneity between fleets in terms of road safety. |
| Keywords: | Road safety; truck fleets; professional drivers; road safety infractions; road safety policy; zero-inflated model; negative binomial model |
| JEL: | D81 G22 |
| Date: | 2021–04–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:crcrmw:2021_003&r=all |
| By: | Patrick Plane (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, FERDI - Fondation pour les Etudes et Recherches sur le Développement International) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the domestic transport and logistics costs of importing a 20-foot container into Africa. We run regressions on a panel of 50 African countries for the period 2006-2014 using the RE-2SLS estimator. Distance from port of arrival to the point of delivery is an important explanatory factor of cost. Time-varying variables yield additional and valuable information. For the 2010-2014 sub-period, the simulations suggest that reducing processing times and adjusting real exchange rates to PPP equilibrium levels would save 12% of the cost to import for North Africa and 37% for Central Africa. |
| Keywords: | Cost of transport and logistics,Africa,Physical geography,Real exchange rate,Transaction costs,Rent seeking,Processing time |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03198081&r= |
| By: | Zabrocki, Léo (Paris School of Economics - EHESS); Leroutier, Marion; Bind, Marie-Abèle |
| Abstract: | Local environmental organizations and media have recently expressed concerns over air pollution induced by maritime traffic and its potential adverse health effects on the population of Mediterranean port cities. We explore this issue with unique high-frequency data from Marseille, France’s largest port for cruise ships, over the 2008- 2018 period. Using a new pair-matching algorithm designed for time series data, we create hypothetical randomized experiments and estimate the variation in air pollutant concentrations caused by a short-term increase in cruise vessel traffic. We carry out a randomization-based approach to compute 95% Fisherian intervals (FI) for constant treatment effects consistent with the matched data and the hypothetical intervention. At the hourly level, cruise vessels’ arrivals increase concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) by 4.7 μg/m³ (95% FI: [1.4, 8.0]), of sulfur dioxide (SO2) by 1.2 μg/m³ (95% FI: [-0.1, 2.5]), and of particulate matter (PM10) by 4.6 μg/m³ (95% FI: [0.9, 8.3]). At the daily level, cruise traffic increases concentrations of NO2 by 1.2 μg/m³ (95% FI: [-0.5, 3.0]) and of PM10 by 1.3 μg/m³ (95% FI: [-0.3, 3.0]). Our results suggest that well-designed hypothetical randomized experiments provide a principled approach to better understand the negative externalities of maritime traffic. |
| Date: | 2021–04–18 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:v7ctk&r= |
| By: | Hardman, Scott; Tal, Gil |
| Abstract: | California has set an ambitious goal of 100% zero-emission vehicle sales by 2035. Most consumer research to date has focused on understanding the factors influencing the initial purchase of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). But for the market introduction of PEVs, which include both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), to be successful, subsequent vehicle purchases by initial adopters need to continue to be PEVs rather than conventional vehicles. Discontinuance, the act of abandoning a new technology after once being an adopter, could make achieving California’s goal more challenging. Researchers at the University of California, Davis surveyed California PEV buyers two to seven years after they first purchased their electric vehicle to understand whether they have continued to choose PEVs with subsequent purchases, and if not, what factors may have led to their discontinuance of the technology. This policy brief summarizes the findings from that research and provides policy implications. View the NCST Project Webpage |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Electric vehicle, market, consumers, survey |
| Date: | 2021–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt5s738624&r= |
| By: | Andrew E. Clark; Conchita D'Ambrosio; Elodie Djemaï |
| Abstract: | Public Goods aim to improve individual welfare. We investigate the causal consequences of roads on well-being in 24 African countries, instrumenting paved roads by 19th Century hypothetical lines between major ports and cities. We have data on over 32000 individuals, and consider both their objective and subjective well-being. Roads reduce material deprivation, in terms of access to basic needs, but at the same time there is no relation between roads and subjective living conditions. The benefit of roads in providing basic needs then seems to be offset by worse outcomes in non basic-needs domains. |
| Keywords: | roads, subjective well-being, basic needs, material deprivation, Africa |
| JEL: | D63 I32 O18 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1761&r= |