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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Baichuan Mo; Zhejing Cao; Hongmou Zhang; Yu Shen; Jinhua Zhao |
| Abstract: | The emergence of autonomous vehicles (AVs) is anticipated to influence the public transportation (PT) system. Many possible relationships between AV and PT are proposed depending on the policy and institution, where competition and cooperation are two main categories. This paper focuses on the former in a hypothetical scenario-"if both AV and PT operators were only profit-oriented." We aim to quantitatively evaluate the system performance (e.g. level of service, operators' financial viability, transport efficiency) when AV and PT are profit-oriented competitors with dynamic adjustable supply strategies under certain policy constraints. We assume AV can adjust the fleetsize and PT can adjust the headway. Service fare and bus routes are fixed. The competition process is analyzed through an agent-based simulation platform, which incorporates a proposed heuristic dynamic supply updating algorithm (HDSUA). The first-mile scenario in Singapore Tampines area is selected as the case study, where only bus is considered for PT system. We found that when AV and bus operators are given the flexibility to adjust supply, both of them will re-distribute their supply spatially and temporally, leading to higher profits. In temporal dimension, both AV and bus will concentrate their supplies in morning and evening peak hours, and reduce the supplies in off-peak hours. The competition between AV and PT decreases passengers' travel time but increase their travel cost. The generalized travel cost is still reduced when counting the value of time. The bus supply adjustment can increase the bus average load and reduce total passenger car equivalent (PCE), which is good for transport efficiency and sustainability. But the AV supply adjustment shows the opposite effect. Overall, the competition does not necessarily bring out loss-gain results. A win-win outcome is also possible under certain policy interventions. |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2001.03197&r=all |
| By: | Ait Ali, Abderrahman (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)); Eliasson, Jonas (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)); Warg, Jennifer (Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI)) |
| Abstract: | Many models have been developed and used to analyse the costs and benefits of transport investments. Similar tools can also be used for transport operation planning and capacity allocation. An example of such use is the assessment of commuter train operations and service frequency. In this study, we analyse the societally optimal frequency for commuter train services. The aim is to reveal the implicit valuation (by the public transport agency) of the waiting time and the in-vehicle crowding in the commuting system. We use an analytic CBA model to formulate the societal costs of a certain service frequency and analyse the societally optimal frequencies during peak and off-peak hours. Comparing the optimal and the actual frequencies allows to reveal the implicit valuations of waiting time and crowding. Using relevant data from the commuter train services in Stockholm on a typical working day in September 2015 (e.g., OD matrix, cost parameters), we perform a numerical analysis on certain lines and directions. We find the societally optimal frequency and the implicit valuation of waiting time and crowding. The results suggest that the public transport agency in Stockholm (i.e., SL) adopted service frequencies that are generally slightly higher than societally optimum which can be explained by a higher implicit valuation of waiting time and crowding. We also find that the optimal frequencies are more sensitive to the waiting time valuation rather than that of crowding. |
| Keywords: | Waiting time; Crowding; Cost benefit analysis; Implicit preference; Commuter train |
| JEL: | L92 R40 R41 R42 R48 |
| Date: | 2020–01–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:vtiwps:2020_001&r=all |
| By: | Musabbir, Sarder Rafee; Zhang, Michael PhD |
| Abstract: | This project used statewide crash data to develop statistical models to determine the safety impacts of increasing speed limitsfor trucks and cars on California highways. The models examined whether various factors about crashes, including average traffic speed and truck-involvement, correlated with outcomes such as crash severity. It then used the models to test the impact of four possible speed limit policies on the number of probable fatal crashes in each of four types of road areas (rural, urban, special speed zone, and truck network). The four policies were: (A) maintaining the existing speed limits of 65 mph for cars and 55 mph for trucks; (B) increasing each of these by 5 or 10 mph; (C) increasing the current truck speed limit to equal the car speed limit of 65 mph; (D) following policy C and then increasing the uniform 65 mph speed limit by 5 or 10 mph. The results suggest that any of these policies other than A—i.e., any policy that increases speed limits for trucks (with or without car speed limit increases) — would correlate with an increase in the probability of fatal crashes in all types of areas except rural areas. Thus, it is safe to assume that increasing the truck speed limit towards 65 mph to a uniform speed limit (Policy C) in only rural areas will not likelyincrease the frequency of fatal crashes. For urban areas, policy C increases the fatality rate by only 1% for both 5 mph and 10 mph speed increments, and therefore is considered the best policy choice that balances safety and mobility. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Speed limits, trucks, highway safety, policy analysis, crash riskforecasting, traffic speeds, logits |
| Date: | 2020–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt8h09c504&r=all |
| By: | David Ennnen (Institute of Transport Economics, Muenster) |
| Abstract: | In the policy debate on ride-hailing services such as Uber, the impacts on traffic, emissions, and public transport are hotly discussed. The regulatory framework in Germany has so far prevented a widespread entry of ride-hailing providers. In this paper, we use a mode choice model and trip data to determine the likely impacts of ride-hailing services for a representative region in Germany. We find that the significantly lower fares compared to taxis lead to strong substitution of public transport, cycling, and walking. As a consequence, motorized traffic increases, despite the pooling of individual rides by ride-hailing providers. However, the total impact on mode choice and traffic remains modest, and a widespread displacement of public transport is not to be expected. The final welfare analysis shows that the emergence of ride-hailing services is beneficial for society as a whole. In particular, the benefits from lower fares exceed the external costs arising from additional motorized traffic. |
| Keywords: | Ride-hailing, Transportation Network Company, TNC, Taxi, Regulation, Germany |
| JEL: | L92 L98 |
| Date: | 2020–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mut:wpaper:29&r=all |
| By: | Tamara Sheldon; Rubal Dua (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | Subsidies for promoting plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) adoption are a key component of China’s overall plan for reducing local air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from its light-duty vehicle sector. This paper explores the impact and cost-effectiveness of the Chinese PEV subsidy program. A vehicle choice model is estimated using a large random sample of individual-level data for new vehicle purchases in China for model year 2017. |
| Keywords: | China Electric Car Market, China New Energy Vehicle Policy, Subsidies for Electric Vehicle |
| Date: | 2019–12–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:dpaper:ks--2019-dp77&r=all |
| By: | Ariane Charpin; Joanna Piechuka |
| Abstract: | Many industries are seeing an increase in concentration, leading to a discussion on the effectiveness of horizontal merger enforcement. The policy debate shows that one of the key arguments put forward when supporting potential mergers is the possibility of realization of merger efficiency gains, specifically in the transport industry. Yet, there exists little empirical evidence on the actual effects of realized mergers on cost efficiencies. We exploit a large and highly debated merger that took place in the French transport industry to evaluate whether a merger between two major transport groups may give rise to merger efficiency gains. We exploit the industry setting to employ a difference-in-differences methodology evaluating the effect of the merger on operating costs of merging transport groups. Our results show that the merger did not lead to any merger specific efficiency gains for the merging parties. Our study relies on the use of several control groups and is robust to a great number of robustness checks as well as to the introduction of heterogeneous treatment effects, depending on the identity of the merging party, the contract type in place, as well as the closeness of competition of local operators. Overall, our study contributes to a growing number of case studies undertaken by economists that can help determine whether horizontal merger policy is being properly enforced. |
| Keywords: | Ex-post Evaluation; Mergers; Transport industry; Merger cost efficiencies |
| JEL: | C31 L40 L50 L92 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1843&r=all |
| By: | Liu, Xueying (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)) |
| Abstract: | Over the past decades, the aviation sector has seen an unprecedented technology advancement as well as rise in global air traffic. In this paper, we establish a two-stage model, combining an epidemic diffusion model and a regression analysis to analyze and predict the diffusion process of modern commercial aviation aircraft models before they are launched into the market. For the estimation of the first-stage epidemic diffusion model, a total of 19,768 delivery records covering 52 widely used aircraft models are used and a non-linear least squares method is applied. For the second-stage regression analysis, we collect aircraft specific technical parameters including range, maximum take-off weight and emissions. We find that, at present, pollutant emissions are not of key significance in determining the success of market diffusion of aircraft models, while conventional parameters, such as range, takeoff weight, and bypass ratio of the engine, are comparably more significant. In terms of projection into the future, our model is relatively good at predicting the rate of diffusion but less so at predicting the market size. This naturally points to further research avenues in terms of the prediction of market potentials. |
| Keywords: | Transportation economics; Technological diffusion; Epidemic Diffusion Model; Aircraft |
| JEL: | C32 L93 O33 Q53 Q55 R41 |
| Date: | 2019–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2019_015&r=all |