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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Robin Lindsey (University of Alberta [Edmonton]); André De Palma (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Hugo Silva (Instituto Superior Técnico - Technical University of Lisbon) |
| Abstract: | Individual users often control a significant share of total traffic flows. Examples include airlines, rail and maritime freight shippers, urban goods delivery companies and passenger transportation network companies. These users have an incentive to internalize the congestion delays their own vehicles impose on each other by adjusting the timing of their trips. We investigate simultaneous trip-timing decisions by large users and small users in a dynamic model of congestion. Unlike previous work, we allow for heterogeneity of trip-timing preferences and for the presence of small users such as individual commuters and fringe airlines. We derive the optimal fleet departure schedule for a large user as a best-response to the aggregate departure rate of other users. We show that when the vehicles in a large user's fleet have a sufficiently dispersed distribution of desired arrival times, there may exist a pure-strategy Nash-equilibrium (PSNE) in which the large user schedules vehicles when there is a queue. This resolves the problem of non-existence of a PSNE identified in Silva et al. (2017) for the case of symmetric large users. We also develop some examples to identify under what conditions a PSNE exists. The examples illustrate how self-internalization of congestion by a large user can affect the nature of equilibrium and the travel costs that it and other users incur. |
| Keywords: | departure-time decisions,bottleneck model,congestion,schedule delay costs,large users,user heterogeneity,existence of Nash equilibrium $ |
| Date: | 2018–04–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01760135&r=tre |
| By: | JongRoul Woo; Christopher L. Magee |
| Abstract: | Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are now clearly a promising candidate in addressing the environmental problems associated with conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). However, BEVs, unlike ICEVs, are still not widely accepted in the automobile market but continuing technological change could overcome this barrier. The aim of this study is to assess and forecast whether and when design changes and technological improvements related to major challenges in driving range and battery cost will make the user value of BEVs greater than the user value of ICEVs. Specifically, we estimate the relative user value of BEVs and ICEVs resulting after design modifications to achieve different driving ranges by considering the engineering trade-offs based on a vehicle simulation. Then, we analyze when the relative user value of BEVs is expected to exceed ICEVs as the energy density and cost of batteries improve because of ongoing technological change. Our analysis demonstrates that the relative value of BEVs is lower than that of ICEVs because BEVs have high battery cost and high cost of time spent recharging despite high torque, high fuel efficiency, and low fuel cost. Moreover, we found the relative value differences between BEVs and ICEVs are found to be less in high performance large cars than in low performance compact cars because BEVs can achieve high acceleration performance more easily than ICEVs. In addition, this study predicts that in approximately 2050, high performance large BEVs could have higher relative value than high performance large ICEVs because of technological improvements in batteries; however low performance compact BEVs are still very likely to have significantly lower user value than comparable ICEVs until well beyond 2050. |
| Date: | 2018–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1806.06947&r=tre |
| By: | Sebastian J. Dietz; Philipp Kneringer; Georg J. Mayr; Achim Zeileis |
| Abstract: | Low visibility conditions enforce special procedures that reduce the operational flight capacity at airports. Accurate and probabilistic forecasts of these capacity-reducing low-visibility procedure (lvp) states help the air traffic management to optimize flight planning and regulation. In this paper we investigate nowcasts, medium-range forecasts, and the predictability limit of the lvp states at Vienna Airport. The forecasts are computed with boosting trees, which consist of an ensemble of decision trees grown iteratively on residuals of previous trees. The model predictors are observations at Vienna Airport and output of a high resolution and an ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Observations have highest impact for nowcasts up to a lead time of two hours. Afterwards a mix of observations and NWP forecast variables generates the most accurate predictions. With lead times longer than eight hours NWP output dominates until the predictability limit is reached at +12 days. For lead times longer than two days ensemble output generates higher improvement than a single higher resolution. The most important predictors for lead times up to +18 hours are observations of lvp and dew point depression, as well as NWP dew point depression. At longer lead times dew point depression and evaporation from the NWP models are most important. |
| Keywords: | aviation meteorology, statistical forecasting, visibility, ceiling, boosting, decision tree |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inn:wpaper:2018-11&r=tre |
| By: | Kharel, Paras |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses changes in Nepal’s trade with China in the wake of the 2015 earthquake, which was followed by a blockade of the Nepal-India border. Using monthly trade data to obtain trade flows over sub-periods of less than a year, it first shows how the blockade compounded the earthquake’s blow to trade. It, then, dissects Nepal-China trade performance and patterns at the product level, customs point/route level and product-customs point/route level. With Tatopani-Zhangmu, the main commercial trading point on the Nepal-China border, shut after the earthquake and Rasuwagadhi-Kerung, a recently opened trading point with a barely motorable road, unable to fully absorb the diverted trade traffic, portions of Nepal’s overland imports from China were forced to take a costly detour via sea. The share of overland imports from China fell from 24 per cent before the earthquake to 12 per cent two years after the quake. There was a general shift towards using both sea and air routes rather than just a single route for imports. The time cost imposed by the enforced sea detour for imports is equivalent to a tariff of 18 per cent to 62 per cent. The share of overland exports to China fell from 69 per cent to 43 per cent. While changes in routes were stark for imports, they were modest for exports that initially used Tatopani. The limited route changes for exports occurred overwhelmingly towards the air route rather than the sea route. The relative importance of exports to China via air has increased, but total exports to China, as of the end of Fiscal Year 2016/17, were yet to be restored to pre-earthquake levels. The paper discusses likely issues in the future of Nepal-China trade through the lens of transport and transit, including the emergence of the Rasuwagadhi-Kerung option. As a landlocked country, Nepal’s strategy should be to diversify trade and transit routes, exploring all options. The temptation to make a cost-benefit analysis comparing trade costs along different routes, without factoring in the value of transit needs, must be avoided. |
| Keywords: | Nepal-China trade; Nepal-India relations; Nepal earthquake, Nepal-India border blockade; trade costs; transit; Tatopani-Zhangmu; Rasuwagadhi-Kerung; Nepal-China railway |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F15 Q54 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87543&r=tre |
| By: | Globisch, Joachim; Plötz, Patrick; Dütschke, Elisabeth; Wietschel, Martin |
| Abstract: | This paper explores factors that determine the usefulness of public charging infrastructure for electric vehicles from the point of view of its potential users. Our analysis is based on evaluations of different (hypothetical) public charging infrastructure networks by 1003 drivers of passenger cars from Germany. We employ a hierarchical linear model to explore the relevance of the attributes of public charging infrastructure as well as the influence of personal characteristics on the respondents' evaluations. Our main conclusions of the results are that public charging infrastructure is generally important to attract additional consumer segments to EVs. In addition charging duration at the autobahn as well as in cities seems to be more important to the mainstream passenger car drivers than the density of public charging spots. Our results also provide some indications regarding distinct target groups and the willingness to pay for public charging infrastructure. |
| Keywords: | public charging infrastructure,EVSE,user perspective,electric vehicle,willingness to pay,target groups |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fisisi:s132018&r=tre |
| By: | Marcén, Miriam; Morales, Marina |
| Abstract: | This paper examines whether there is a relationship between the recent economic and financial crisis and air passengers in Spain. Static and dynamic models are estimated using data for the period 2004-2016. Initially, no relationship can be discerned between the variables; however, the estimates also show a possible dynamic relationship between the economic crisis and the number of passengers using Spanish airports, depending on the proportion of low-cost airlines at each airport. |
| Keywords: | Economic crisis, Air passengers, Low-cost airlines |
| JEL: | L83 L93 |
| Date: | 2018–07–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87907&r=tre |
| By: | Eberhard-Ruiz, Andreas; Calabrese, Linda |
| Abstract: | We examine how increased trade facilitation affects the price for trucking services in East Africa. Using a combination of qualitative and quantitative data from primary and secondary sources we are able to provide a detailed account of the market structure of trucking services on a key trading route between Mombasa and Kampala, which is used by importers and exporters across the region. We find that trucking services on this route are provided on a competitive basis and that increased trade facilitation would lead to significantly lower transport prices. In total, we estimate that transport prices could fall by as much as 30% from their current levels through a combination of trade facilitation measures that reduce transit time and transit cost to a minimum. |
| Keywords: | trade facilitation; transport corridors; East African Community; trucking |
| JEL: | F14 L92 R41 |
| Date: | 2018–01–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:87150&r=tre |
| By: | Paolo Avner (The World Bank - The World Bank - The World Bank); Shomik Raj Mehndiratta (The World Bank - The World Bank - The World Bank); Vincent Viguie (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - AgroParisTech - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Stéphane Hallegatte (The World Bank - The World Bank - The World Bank) |
| Date: | 2018–01–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01695083&r=tre |
| By: | Chandan Kumar (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research) |
| Abstract: | Using the basic instruments of governance as highlighted in the transaction cost economics literature, this paper empirically examines the impact of differences in contract attributes on project outcomes. The hypothesis is to test whether better incentive structure and stricter administrative controls lead to more efficient project outcomes. It compares two sets of contracts (called as toll and annuity) from Indian PPP road projects which are designed for the same task and implemented under the similar conditions, but have some differences in the contract governance attributes. It carries out this exercise using data from more than 150 projects. The empirical findings highlight how instruments of governance influence the degree of efficiency in achieving the desired results. For instance, the annuity model, that has tighter budget constraint (i.e. better incentive structure) than the toll model, performs better in terms of minimizing cost and time overruns. Moreover, the results demonstrate that changes in administrative controls also influence outcomes. Stricter the control, better is the efficiency in the desired outcomes. The empirical findings could be useful to the policymakers for designing better contracts for the road as well as other infrastructure related sectors. |
| Keywords: | Contracts, Transaction Cost Economics, Road sector, Public Private Partnership, India |
| JEL: | K12 D23 R42 L33 C20 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2018-014&r=tre |
| By: | Esteban Jaimovich |
| Abstract: | We propose a model where the internal transport network facilitates the sourcing of intermediate goods from different locations. A denser internal transport network promotes thus the growth of industries that rely on a large variety of inputs. The model shows that heterogeneities in internal transport infrastructures can become a key factor in shaping comparative advantage and specialization. Moreover, when sufficiently pronounced, such heterogeneities may even overshadow more traditional sources of specialization based on factor productivities. Evidence based on industry-level trade data grants support to the main prediction of the model: countries with denser road networks export relatively more in industries that exhibit broader input bases. We show that this correlation is robust to several possible confounding effects proposed by the literature, such as the impact of institutions on specialization in complex goods. Furthermore, we show that a similar correlation arises as well when the density of the local transport network is measured by the density of their internal waterways, and also when road density is instrumented with measures of terrain roughness. |
| Keywords: | International Trade, Comparative Advantage, Internal Transportation Costs |
| JEL: | F11 O18 R12 |
| Date: | 2018–06–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:col:000518:016394&r=tre |
| By: | Kaukin, Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The consequences of the crisis phenomena 2014-2015 led, among other things, to a decline, and then stagnant output in many key sectors of the economy. The market of air transportation, both internal and external, also faces negative impact of the latest macroeconomic and political changes. On the demand side there is a general decrease in the number of passenger traffic due to a fall in real incomes, on the company's offers side facing rising costs of the aircraft fleet and spare parts as a result of changes in the ruble exchange rate, reduced ability to attract external funding, the general negative expectations of domestic producers, including in the aircraft building sector, the state's unsustainable policy regarding the taxation of oil and oil products production. In this regard, it is especially important to search for key factors that have a critical impact on the development prospects of the industry and the development of appropriate economic policy measures. |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:061830&r=tre |
| By: | Bent Flyvbjerg; Alexander Budzier |
| Abstract: | This report reviews the Edinburgh tram project's risk management. Projects frequently overrun their cost and timelines and fall short on intended benefits. Cost, schedule, and benefit risk of projects need to be carefully considered to avoid this. The report describes and evaluates risk assessment and management for the Edinburgh tram. The report was produced as part of the Edinburgh Tram Inquiry. Keywords: risk assessment, risk management, infrastructure, megaprojects, optimism bias, strategic misrepresentation, planning fallacy, behavioral science. |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1805.12106&r=tre |
| By: | Daniel Albalate (Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economics & GiM-IREA University of Barcelona. C/ John Keynes 1-11, 08034 Barcelona. Tel: 34.93.4031131 Fax:34.93.4024573); Germà Bel (Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economics & GiM-IREA University of Barcelona. C/ John Keynes 1-11, 08034 Barcelona. Tel: 34.93.4031131 Fax:34.93.4024573); R. Richard Geddes (Department of Policy Analysis and Management. Cornell University 251 Martha Van Rensselaer Hall. Ithaca, NY 14853. Phone: (607) 255-8391.) |
| Abstract: | Rising use of public-private partnerships, or PPPs, is an important development in U.S. infrastructure delivery. PPPs are detailed contracts between a public-sector infrastructure project sponsor and a private-sector provider that bundle delivery services. PPPs represent a middle ground between pure-public project delivery and complete privatization. As of 2016, thirty-five U.S. states had enacted PPP enabling laws. That legislation defines the broad institutional framework surrounding a PPP agreement. It addresses such questions as the mixing of public- and private-sector funds, the treatment of unsolicited PPP proposals, and need for prior legislative approval of PPP contracts, among other key issues. We provide the first thorough empirical assessment of the impact of PPP enabling laws on a state’s utilization of private investment. We analyze the overall effect of having a PPP enabling law while controlling for a variety of factors, including the state’s indebtedness, its broad political disposition, union membership, per-capita income, and other variables. We then assess the impact of thirteen individual PPP enabling-law provisions. We develop an expertinformed weighted index reflecting the degree to which a state’s law is encouraging or discouraging of private investment. We find that more favorable PPP enabling laws increase private investment: when our favorability index increases by one-tenth, the proportion of infrastructure investment delivered via PPP in a state increases by 0.5-0.6. We find that PPP enabling-law provisions allowing unsolicited proposals and the comingling of public and private funds are particularly important in attracting private investment. |
| Keywords: | Transportation infrastructure, public-private partnerships, private investment, state public-private partnership enabling laws, fiscal constraints. JEL classification:L14, L33, L51, L92, L98. |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:201815&r=tre |