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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Michael L. Anderson; Lucas W. Davis |
| Abstract: | Transportation engineers are taught that as demand for travel goes up, this decreases not only speed but also the capacity of the road system, a phenomenon known as hypercongestion. We revisit this idea. There is no question that road systems experience periods in which capacity falls. However, we point out that capacity is determined by both demand and supply. Road construction, lane closures, stalled vehicles, weather, and other supply shocks provide an alternative explanation for the empirical evidence on hypercongestion. Using data from the Caldecott Tunnel in Oakland, California, we show that a naive regression recovers the standard hypercongestion result in the literature. However, once we use instrumental variables to isolate the effect of travel demand this effect disappears and across specifications we find no evidence that capacity decreases during periods of high demand. This lack of evidence of hypercongestion calls into question long-standing conventional wisdom held by transportation engineers and implies that efficient “Pigouvian” congestion taxes should be substantially lower than implied by hypercongestion models. |
| JEL: | C36 H23 R41 R42 R48 |
| Date: | 2018–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24469&r=tre |
| By: | Kathrin Goldmann (Institute of Transport Economics, Muenster) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a social discount rate for transport infrastructure project evaluation in Germany that accounts for production efficiency, systematic traffic demand risk, as well as increasing uncertainty in the long-run. The systematic risk in infrastructure planning is measured by the sensitivity of transport volume towards GDP using cointegration analysis. In contrast to the only existing application of this model in transport economics, in this paper the systematic risk for freight transport projects is substantially higher than for passenger transport projects. Due to different systematic risk patterns, the discount rates for freight and passenger transport projects should differ as well, with the former being equal to approximately 3.5% and declining to 2.7% after 50 years, and the latter ranging between 2.0% and the risk-free rate of 1.3%. This paper focuses especially on the econometric challenges of the CAPM-like estimation of systematic risk in public transport infrastructure project assessment and is at the same time the first application to German data. |
| Keywords: | Social discount rate, Traffic demand risk, Time series analysis, Infrastructure planning, Cost-benefit analysis |
| JEL: | H43 R42 |
| Date: | 2017–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mut:wpaper:22&r=tre |
| By: | Frank Troch; Thierry Vanelslander (Department of Transport and Regional Economics - UA - University of Antwerp); Christa Sys (BNP Paribas Fortis chair on transport, logistics and ports); Florent Laroche (UA - University of Antwerp); Angel Merchan; Martine Mostert; Vidar Stevens; Christine Tawfik; Sandra Belboom; Angelique Leonard (Université de Liège); Sabine Limbourg; Koen Verhoest |
| Abstract: | The starting point of this article is the weak usage of rail freight in Belgium and Europe, both as a sustainable mode of land transportation in itself as well as a part of the intermodal chain. The results are obtained by transversal research on rail freight transport in Belgium, taking into account the European context. This interdisciplinary research develops a road map for the creation of three integrated scenarios: a best case, medium case and worst case scenario for rail freight development, based on a detailed SWOT (strength, weakness, opportunities, threats) analysis. It includes the most probable future developments for rail freight transport and hinterland connections. These developments are obtained from literature review and discussions with a heterogeneous panel of experts in the fields of (i) optimal corridor and hub development, (ii) macroeconomic impact, (iii) sustainability, (iv) effective market regulation and (v) governance and organization for a well-functioning intermodality. The Delphi approach is used in combination with a survey analysis. Frequency tables and the H-index allow defining a ranking and selection of SWOT elements. The obtained scenarios allow future research to quantify and measure the impact of future developments and decisions towards the Belgian rail freight market. |
| Keywords: | survey,Intermodal,rail freight,SWOT analysis,scenario analysis,Delphi technique |
| Date: | 2017–10–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01745735&r=tre |
| By: | Yiming He |
| Abstract: | Inter-city public transit system, like high-speed rail and inter-city railway, continues to promote the development of regional economic integration, however, relatively little is known about the impacts of inter-city metro system on regional integration. Different from western countries, in China, the primary commuting mode is traditionally public transit within urban although there is higher reliance on automobile for commuting in past years. Therefore, citizens’ commute behavior and residential location choice is mainly influenced by traditional public transit system, especially urban mass rail transit. The construction and operation of Guangfo Metro, the first urban metro system that directly connects two cities- Guangzhou and Foshan in China, stimulates the immigration of residents and movement of enterprises from Guangzhou to Foshan during past decade, because of more affordable housing price and improved accessibility in Foshan. At present, Foshan acts as satellite city of Guangzhou economically and socially at a large extend, particularly after the operation of Guangfo metro. Therefore, Guangfo Metro system is a special and good case for observing the influence of inter-city metro system on regional integration, especially its impacts among satellite city in the context of China. The paper investigates the territorial influences of inter-city metro system on residents’ willingness to pay on residential property in Foshan by conducting a panel data analysis on real estate project-based transaction price around existing and proposed Guangfo Metro stations. This study contributes to understand the inter-city metro investment and its impacts on regional integration in metropolitan area in the context of China. |
| Keywords: | Commute behavior; Inter-city metro system; Regional intgration; Satellite city |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_307&r=tre |
| By: | Radoslaw Trojanek; Sonia Huderek-Glapska |
| Abstract: | The interactions between air transport activities, airport location, local society and the regional economy are of great importance nowadays. Air traffic growth enhances the development of the economy and brings benefits to the users. On the other hand, there are some negative external effects and the costs are borne to great extent by the local community. Sustainable development requires all the effects caused by the provision of air services to be included in a comprehensive assessment of air transport activities. The aim of this study is to discuss the role of air transport as an instrument for sustainable development, investigate the external costs of aviation with particular emphasis on the effect of aviation noise on the local community and estimate to what degree this impact is stable over a period of time. The social cost of noise was evaluated through a complementary market, namely a change in the value of properties located in an area affected by airport activities. Therefore the impact of the Limited Use Area (LUA) related to aircraft noise associated with the operations of the largest airport in Poland, Warsaw Chopin Airport, on the housing prices in Warsaw was measured through the use of hedonic price modelling. Our estimates suggest that the impact of aviation noise on land-use policy has implications for the housing market. The location of a dwelling within the Limited Use Area around Warsaw Chopin Airport reduces its value by about 3%on average in the years 2011-2014, the NDI value being 0.6. According to the results of estimations the LUA variable for the years 2007-2009 was statistically insignificant. |
| Keywords: | aviation noise; limited use area; property prices |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2017–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2017_251&r=tre |
| By: | Thorsten Heilker (Institute of Transport Economics, Muenster); Gernot Sieg (Institute of Transport Economics, Muenster) |
| Abstract: | Transportation network companies commonly enter the market for taxi ride intermediation and alter the market outcome. Compared to cooperatively organized radio-taxi dispatch service agencies, transportation network companies run larger fleets and serve more customers with lower fares, when the fixed costs of the dispatch office are relatively small. The same holds for private dispatch firms, when the fixed costs of a taxicab are not too small. These results are shown in a two-stage duopoly of fare and fleet size competition with fare- and waiting-time-dependent demand. |
| Keywords: | digitization, regulatory capture, taxi dispatch market, transportation network companies |
| JEL: | L91 R41 D43 L22 |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mut:wpaper:24&r=tre |
| By: | Maravall Buckwalter, Laura |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the effect of gaining access to railways on settler and indigenous population densities in nineteenth-century French Algeria. A growing amount of research shows that railway expansion allowed previously marginalized regions to participate in international trade and thereby to boost growth. However, few studies point out that railways increased marginalization in areas that did not gain access to the infrastructure or that did not have the required geographic characteristics needed to engage in international markets. By taking advantage of unique territorial population data and digitized historical colonization maps in the Constantine region, this paper measures the effect of gaining access in relatively isolated areas where the infrastructure arrived later using a differences-in-differences combined with a propensity score matching methodology. Results show that the indigenous population responded positively to rail infrastructure only in the regions where settler density was already high, while the settler population growth did not respond to the new infrastructure. These results are consistent with an additional IV strategy. A more detailed analysis of freight and passenger transport shows that the potential gains were restricted by tariffs, which mirrored Constantine's geographical restrictions; that is, limited fertile land and the vulnerability of agricultural production to climate. |
| Keywords: | Algeria; Population Density; Agriculture; Transport and Trade; Colonial Railways |
| JEL: | Q17 O18 N9 N7 N5 |
| Date: | 2018–04–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:26738&r=tre |
| By: | Shashank Sripad; Venkatasubramanian Viswanathan |
| Abstract: | There has been considerable interest in the electrification of freight transport, particularly heavy-duty trucks to downscale the greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector. However, the economic competitiveness of electric semi-trucks is uncertain as there are substantial additional initial costs associated with the large battery packs required. In this work, we analyze the trade-off between the initial investment and the operating cost for realistic usage scenarios to compare a fleet of electric semi-trucks with a range of 500 miles with a fleet of diesel trucks. For the baseline case with 30% of fleet requiring battery pack replacements and a price differential of US\$50,000, we find a payback period of about 3 years. Based on sensitivity analysis, we find that the fraction of the fleet that requires battery pack replacements is a major factor. For the case with 100% replacement fraction, the payback period could be as high as 5-6 years. We identify the price of electricity as the second most important variable, where a price of US$0.14/kWh, the payback period could go up to 5 years. Electric semi-trucks are expected to lead to savings due to reduced repairs and magnitude of these savings could play a crucial role in the payback period as well. With increased penetration of autonomous vehicles, the annual mileage of semi-trucks could substantially increase and this heavily sways in favor of electric semi-trucks, bringing down the payback period to around 2 years at an annual mileage of 120,000 miles. There is an undeniable economic case for electric semi-trucks and developing battery packs with longer cycle life and higher specific energy would make this case even stronger. |
| Date: | 2018–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1804.05974&r=tre |
| By: | Pierre-Henri Bono (Sciences Po); Quentin David (Université de Lille); Rodolphe Desbordes (SKEMA Business School); Loriane Py (Banque de France) |
| Abstract: | Au cours des dernières décennies, les décideurs publics ont fortement investi dans les infrastructures de transport et en particulier dans la création et/ou l’extension des réseaux de métro. Pour justifier de telles dépenses, il est souvent avancé comme argument que ces grands investissements en infrastructure contribuent au dynamisme et à l’attractivité internationale des villes. Étant donné l’ampleur des moyens engagés, il est fondamental d’évaluer l’efficacité de ces politiques publiques. Cette note résume l’impact d’une étude visant à étudier les effets des réseaux de métro sur l’attractivité des villes pour les investisseurs internationaux, dans le cadre de la mise en place du Grand Paris Express. L’analyse empirique menée s’appuie sur une base de données inédite rassemblant des informations sur 140 000 choix de localisation de multinationales réalisés entre 2003 et 2014 dans près de 3500 villes du monde et contenant également des informations très riches sur les caractéristiques des villes (poids économique et autres infrastructures de transport en particulier). Les résultats suggèrent qu’un doublement de la taille du métro, telle que prévue dans le plan d’investissement parisien, devrait permettre d’attirer près de 15% de projets de localisation de multinationales supplémentaires. |
| Keywords: | politiques de transport; investissements directs étrangers; attractivité |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1nc1j3sifu9p2pr7v2hj7cpd05&r=tre |
| By: | Sebastián M. Palacio (GiM, Department of Econometrics, Statistics and Applied Economics, Universitat de Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | Public transport smart cards are widely used around the world. However, while they provide information about various aspects of passenger behavior, they have not been properly exploited to predict demand. Indeed, traditional methods in economics employ linear unbiased estimators that pay little attention to accuracy, which is the main problem faced by the sector’s regulators. This paper reports the application of various supervised machine learning (SML) techniques to smart card data in order to forecast demand, and it compares these outcomes with traditional linear model estimates. We conclude that the forecasts obtained from these algorithms are much more accurate. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:xrp:wpaper:xreap2018-3&r=tre |
| By: | Heij, C.; Knapp, S. |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past inspection outcomes and is based on data from all around the globe of PSC regimes using harmonized deficiency codes. These codes are aggregated into eight groups related to human factor aspects like crew qualifications, working and living conditions, and fatigue and safety management. This information is integrated by principal components into a single overall deficiency index, which is related to future accident risk by means of logit models. The factor by which accident risk increases for vessels with above average compared to below average deficiency scores is about 6 for total loss, 2 for very serious, 1.5 for serious, and 1.3 for less-serious accidents. Relations between deficiency scores and accident risk are presented in graphical format. The results may be of interest to PSC authorities for targeting inspection areas, to maritime administrations for improving asset allocation based on prediction scenarios connected with vessel traffic data, and to maritime insurers for refining their premium strategies. |
| Keywords: | deficiencies, human factor, Maritime safety, port state control inspections, risk prediction, shipping accidents |
| Date: | 2018–02–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ems:eureir:105080&r=tre |
| By: | Timo Gschwind (Johannes Gutenberg-University); Stefan Irnich (Johannes Gutenberg-University); Simon Emde (Johannes Gutenberg-University); Christian Tilk (Technische Universität Darmstadt) |
| Abstract: | In a direct shipping (or point-to-point) network, individual deliveries are round trips from one supplier to one customer and back to either the same or another supplier, i.e., a truck can only visit one customer at a time before it has to return to a supplier. We consider the multiple sources, multiple sinks case, where a given set of direct deliveries from a set of suppliers to a set of customers must be scheduled such that the customer time windows are not violated, the truck fleet size is minimal, and the total weighted customer waiting time is as small as possible. Direct shipping policies are, for instance, commonly employed in just-in-time logistics (e.g., in the automotive industry) or in humanitarian logistics. We present an exact branch-cut-and-price algorithm for this problem, which is shown to perform well on instances from the literature and newly generated ones. We also investigate under what circumstances bundling suppliers in so-called supplier parks actually facilitates logistics operations under a direct shipping policy. |
| Keywords: | direct deliveries, branch-cut-and-price, weighted customer waiting times, just-in-time logistics |
| Date: | 2018–04–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jgu:wpaper:1805&r=tre |
| By: | Inga Molenda (Institute of Transport Economics, Muenster); Gernot Sieg (Institute of Transport Economics, Muenster) |
| Abstract: | A shopping mall is a meeting platform for retailers and their customers, and may therefore subsidize one particular market side. We consider suburban malls as competitive bottlenecks, because shops are mainly opened up by retail chains which operate in many malls, but whose customers visit only one suburban mall, so as to save transport costs. If the consumer-to-shop externality is larger than the shop-to-consumer externality, parking is subsidized. If customers generate high revenue, the mall operator will generally refrain from charging an entry fee, and offer free parking to its visitors. This result is shown in a model with variety-loving consumers and two competing malls at the end point of a Hotelling line on which their potential visitors, and thus the retailers’ customers, are located. |
| JEL: | L91 R41 |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mut:wpaper:23&r=tre |
| By: | Jan Willem Gunning; Pramila Krishnan; Andualem T Mengistu |
| Abstract: | The lack of market development in remote areas is usually measured by spatial variation in prices for a given set of consumer goods. We focus instead on the way distance constrains the choices consumers can make. We construct a model of monopolistic competition between traders moving goods from market towns to rural areas. An increase in transport costs reduces consumer welfare not only through lower incomes for farm households and higher prices for manufactures but also through reduced availability of manufactures: choice fades with distance. The model allows for heterogeneity of villages in terms of market size and the distribution of income. We test the model using data from a purpose-designed survey of shops and consumers in rural villages in Ethiopia. Falling transport costs, larger market size and higher inequality dramatically raise variety of items and brands available locally. We use data on prices of matched source and destination goods to estimate similar tastes for variety across space and estimate an average markup of 10-15 percent. We use these results to estimate the welfare costs of falling variety at between 5-7 percent of expenditures on manufactured consumer goods. Our results suggest ignoring the costs of lower variety in remote places will mean that the level of poverty is underestimated while the rate at which poverty declines is underestimated as well. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:csa:wpaper:2018-05&r=tre |
| By: | Guillaume Chapelle (Département d'économie); Etienne Wasmer (Département d'économie); Pierre-Henri Bono (Sciences Po); Florian Oswald (Département d'économie); Camille Urvoy (Département d'économie) |
| Abstract: | Afin d’évaluer l’impact socio-économique de la mise en service du Grand paris Express (GPE), la Société du Grand Paris (SGP) a commandé une étude permettant d’étudier les effets de ces nouvelles infrastructures de transport sur les marchés du travail et du logement. Le LIEPP propose dans ce rapport (qui est une version d’étape d’un travail de recherche toujours en cours) un modèle d’analyse des relations entre la structure des loyers dans l’agglomération, les créations d’emploi et le niveau du chômage d’équilibre. Ce modèle constitue un cadre théorique original pour répondre à cette demande. Les paramètres clefs de ce modèle ont été estimés grâce à des données de l’agglomération parisienne collectées à cette fin. Ce cadre théorique vise, d’une part, à simplifier le calcul des créations d’emplois induites dans une « équation unique » et, d’autre part, à identifier le rôle des différentes hypothèses de travail sur l’impact économique des infrastructures de transport. L’approche de modélisation innove par rapport à la littérature existante en ce qu’elle est conçue pour décrire un marché du logement explicitement dual, représentant ainsi plus précisément l’agglomération parisienne que les modèles urbains existants. |
| Keywords: | marché du travail; marché du logement; modélisation; évaluation d'impact; politique de transport |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/25evjl71tn8bqab5llf4pfd9fv&r=tre |
| By: | David Ennen (Institute of Transport Economics, Muenster); Irem Batool (COMSATS Institute, Sahiwal) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the airports in Pakistan for potential cost inefficiencies. We identify inefficiencies by benchmarking the productive performance of airports using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). To improve the ability of DEA to differentiate performance levels, we analyze airport functions individually, using separate DEA models. In addition, restrictions are imposed on the possible weights of inputs and outputs in the DEA procedure, in order to improve the differentiation of performance. The definition of these weight restrictions is based on additional information on feasible production trade-offs and relative input prices. To the best of our knowledge, this paper provides the first application of predefined weight restrictions in a DEA analysis of airport efficiency. The results suggest that there are cost inefficiencies at several airports, which are mainly caused by overstaffing and overinvestment in capacity. Furthermore, we find that the operational scale of most airports is inefficiently small, so that increases in traffic will result in declining unit costs. |
| Keywords: | Airport, Efficiency, Benchmarking, Data Envelopment Analysis, Pakistan |
| JEL: | L93 |
| Date: | 2017–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mut:wpaper:25&r=tre |
| By: | Jean Pierre Ponssard (Department of Economics, École Polytechnique, Palaiseau Cedex, 91128, France - affiliation inconnue); Guy Meunier (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Date: | 2018–04–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-01777499&r=tre |
| By: | VERGEYLEN, Nicholas; SÖRENSEN, Kenneth; PALHAZI CUERVO, Daniel |
| Abstract: | The Bike Request Scheduling Problem (BRSP) is a recently introduced combinatorial optimization problem the aim of which is to assign a number of predefined bicycle pick-or-drop instructions, called requests, to a set of vehicles and determine the sequence (routes) in which the vehicles should perform the requests. A natural and elementary operation in heuristics for the BRSP is request insertion (RI), the operation of inserting a request in a specific position in a route. Solutions of the BRSP are connected in the solution space through RI operations. This results in a distance between solutions called the RI distance. A better understanding of the solution space and the RI operator is necessary to improve both problem understanding and solution methods using RI. Therefore, we first perform a solution space cardinality analysis. Secondly, we formulate properties of the RI-metric and, finally, we visualize the solution space. We demonstrate that the original BRSP model formulation yields a very large solution space, a problem that we solve by introducing symmetrybreaking constraints. Furthermore, we propose an expression for the cardinality of the solution space, and derive lower bounds which show that enumeration is intractable and random search is generally ineffective. Finally, we visualize the solution space of the BRSP using the RI distance, which can help understand the effects of other, more complex operators and of introducing algorithm components such as evaluation functions. A few alternatives of evaluation functions are developed and analyzed. |
| Keywords: | Combinatorial optimization, Combinatorial complexity, Bike request scheduling problem, Bicycle repositioning, Multi dimensional scaling |
| Date: | 2018–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ant:wpaper:2018005&r=tre |
| By: | Pierre-Henri Bono (Sciences Po); Quentin David (Université de Lille); Rodolphe Desbordes (SKEMA Business School); Loriane Py (Banque de France) |
| Abstract: | La Société du Grand Paris (SGP) responsable du développement du Grand Paris Express a chargé le LIEPP de réaliser une étude de l’impact des infrastructures de transport de type métro sur l’attractivité des villes. Pour répondre à la question, le LIEPP a construit une base de données originale d’emprise mondiale à l’échelle des aires urbaines avec les spécificités suivantes. Premièrement, pour mesurer l’attractivité internationale des villes, nous avons géo-localisé à la ville des données des projets d’investissements directs étrangers (FDI) de la base fDiMarkets, produite par le Financial Times. Deuxièmement, une base de données rassemblant des informations annuelles de 1950 à 2015 sur la taille des infrastructures de type métro dans le monde à l’échelle de la ville a été minutieusement constituée afin de construire nos variables d’intérêt. Troisièmement, des informations sur les autres types d’infrastructures de transports disponibles au niveau des villes ont également été collectées. Enfin, ont été rassemblées des informations sur un grand nombre de caractéristiques économiques et géographiques des villes susceptibles aussi d’être facteur d’attractivité pour les multinationales. Ce travail a permis de mener une analyse économétrique de l’impact des métros sur l’implantation du nombre de projets FDI sur la période 2003-2014. Un modèle de Poisson est utilisé pour analyser à la fois l’impact de la présence du métro et de la taille sur l’attractivité d’une ville pour les multinationales. |
| Keywords: | politique de transport; attractivité; investissement direct étranger; évaluation |
| Date: | 2017–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/7vpqdqsvj19r284ge9bjinm38p&r=tre |