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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Kristin Carlson; Alireza Ermagun; Brendan Murphy; Andrew Owen; David Levinson (School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the estimated crashes per bicyclist and per vehicle as a function of bicyclist and vehicle traffic, and tests whether greater traffic reduces the per-car crash rate. We present a framework for comprehensive bicyclist risk assessment modeling, using estimated bicyclist flow per intersection, observed vehicle flow, and crash records. Using a two-part model of crashes, we reveal that both the annual average daily traffic and daily bicyclist traffic have a diminishing return to scale in crashes. This accentuates the positive role of safety in numbers. Increasing the number of vehicles and cyclists decelerates not only the probability of crashes, but the number of crashes as well. Measuring the elasticity of the variables, it is found that a 1% increase in the annual average daily motor vehicle traffic increases the probability of crashes by 0.14% and the number of crashes by 0.80%. However, a 1% increase in the average daily bicyclist traffic increases the probability of crashes by 0.09% and the number of crashes by 0.50%. The saturation point of the safety in numbers for bicyclists is notably less than for motor vehicles. Extracting the vertex point of the parabola functions examines that the number of crashes starts decreasing when daily vehicle and bicyclist traffic per intersection exceed 29,568 and 1,532, respectively. |
| Keywords: | Safety; Bicyclist crashes; Returns to scale; Road intersection |
| JEL: | R41 R48 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:safetyinnumbers-bikes&r=tre |
| By: | Yves Crozet (LAET - Laboratoire Aménagement Économie Transports - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État [ENTPE] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IEP Lyon - Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon) |
| Abstract: | The development of rail freight is central to the European Union's transportation policy. As it has been the case for road and air transport and for other network industries (e.g. energy and telecommunications), deregulation and market opening have been the main policy options chosen by EU to promote rail freight. But rail freight is still facing a doubly-imperfect competition. On one hand, the intermodal competition is off balance between road and rail. On the other hand, intra-modal competition between railway operators is imperfect. Railway operators are not all alike, major companies exist and they play a structuring role that regulation must take into account. According to the HHI (Hirschman Herfindahl Index) the market structure is still characterised by a strong concentration. Therefore, the key roles played by the major companies as well as, in some countries, the remaining action of the state, have to be addressed, since both of them represent some of the key features of imperfect competition in the rail sector. Numerous entry barriers remain and market power manifest itself in many areas of rail freight. This should be given special attention by regulators or competition authorities. National regulators should also communicate with one another, as they will be confronted with major companies’ market power. |
| Keywords: | Barriers to enrry,Competition,Concentation index,EU,Liberalisation,Road freight,Rail freight,Regulation |
| Date: | 2016–07–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01394330&r=tre |
| By: | Adam Danczyk; Xuan Di; Henry Liu; David Levinson (School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the observed evolution of traffic in the Minneapolis-St Paul (Twin Cities) region road network following the unexpected collapse of the I-35W Bridge over the Mississippi River. The observations presented within this paper reveal that traffic dynamics are potentially different when a prolonged and unexpected network disruption occurs rather than a preplanned closure. Following the disruption from the I-35W Bridge's unexpected collapse, we witnessed a unique trend: an avoidance phenomenon after the disruption. More specifically, drivers are observed to drastically avoid areas near the disruption site, but gradually return after a period of time following the collapse. This trend is not observed in preplanned closures studied to date. To model avoidance, it is proposed that the tragedy generated a perceived travel cost that discouraged commuters from using these sections. These perceived costs are estimated for the Twin Cities network and found to be best described as an exponential decay cost curve with respect to time. After reinstituting this calibrated cost curve into a mesoscopic simulator, the simulated traffic into the discouraged areas are found to be within acceptable limits of the observed traffic on a week-by-week basis. The proposed model is applicable to both practitioners and researchers in many traffic-related fields by providing an understanding of how traffic dynamics will evolve after a long-term, unexpected network disruption. |
| Keywords: | Unexpected network disruption; Avoidance phenomenon; Perceived cost evolution; Traffic dynamic, I-35W Bridge collapse |
| JEL: | R41 R48 C21 C23 D81 D83 D84 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:unexpected&r=tre |
| By: | Saskia Vennix (Microeconomic Information Department, NBB) |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the economic importance of air transport and airport activities in Belgium in terms of value added, employment and investment over the 2013-2015 period 1 . The sector considered embraces not only the activities directly connected with air transport, but also all those that take place on site at the six Belgian airports (Antwerp, Brussels,Charleroi, Kortrijk, Liège and Ostend). The study reviews the direct and indirect effects of the sector on the basis of microeconomic data (mainly obtained from the Central Balance Sheet Office) and mesoeconomic data (from the National Accounts Institute). It also includes a social balance sheet analysis and an indication of credit risk using statistical models from the NBB’s In-house Credit Assessment System (ICAS). In 2015, air transport and airport activities generated € 6 billion in direct and indirect value added (i.e. 1.5 % of Belgian GDP) and employed around 62 500 people in full-time equivalents (FTEs)either directly or indirectly (1.5 % of domestic employment including the self-employed). Brussels and Liège Airport remain the country’s biggest airports, respectively in terms of passenger and cargo traffic. In the aftermath of the terrorist attacks in March 2016, the regional airports received part of Brussels’ passenger traffic. All in all, Brussels recovered fairly quickly, especially freight traffic, but also passenger traffic resumed gradually to tie in with growth again since November 2016. Brussels and Liège are the fastest growing airports during the 2013-2015 period, respectively in terms of value added and employment. At Ostend Airport, these economic variables slumped in line with the evolution of freight traffic volumes. Antwerp’s growth rates went into the red as well, mainly under the influence of the difficulties faced by VLM Airlines. At Charleroi and Liège, the trend of value added is downward, while that is not the case for employment. The smallest changes are recorded in Kortrijk. |
| Keywords: | air transport, airport activities, sector analysis, indirect effects, employment, value added, investment. |
| JEL: | C67 D40 J21 L93 R15 R34 R41 |
| Date: | 2017–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:201707-324&r=tre |
| By: | Robbin Debbosere; Ahmed El-Geneidy; David Levinson (School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | Municipal governments worldwide have been pursuing transit-oriented development (TOD) strategies in order to increase transit ridership, curb traffic congestion, and rejuvenate urban neighborhoods. In many cities, however, development of planned sites around transit stations has been close to non-existent, due to, among other reasons, a lack of coordination between transit investments and land use at the regional scale. Further, access to transit differs from access to destination that people care about. Reframing transit-oriented development as accessibility-oriented development (AOD) can aid the process of creating functional connections between neighborhoods and the rest of the region, and maximize benefits from transport investments. AOD is a strategy that balances accessibility to employment and the labor force in order to foster an environment conducive to development. AOD areas are thus defined as having higher than average accessibility to employment opportunities and/or the labor force; such accessibility levels are expected to increase the quality of life of residents living in these areas by reducing their commute time and encouraging faster economic development. To quantify the benefits of AOD, accessibility to employment and the labor force are calculated in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area, Canada in 2001 and 2011. Cross-sectional and temporal regressions are then performed to predict average commute times and development occurring in AOD areas and across the region. Results show that AOD neighborhoods with high accessibility to jobs and low accessibility to the labor force have the lowest commute times in the region, while the relationship also holds for changes in average commute time between the studied time periods. In addition, both accessibility to jobs and accessibility to the labor force are associated with changes in development, as areas with high accessibility to jobs and the labor force attract more development. In order to realize the full benefits of planned transit investments, planning professionals and policy makers alike should therefore leverage accessibility as a tool to direct development in their cities, and concentrate on developing neighbourhoods with an AOD approach in mind. |
| Keywords: | Transit oriented development, accessibility, travel behavior, land use |
| JEL: | R12 R14 R41 R52 R53 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:aod&r=tre |
| By: | Daniel Rijken (VU Amsterdam, The Netherlands); Vincent (V.A.C.) van den Berg (VU Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impacts of five airline mergers on one quality dimension, namely route frequency. We use monthly data on routes between the largest 64 US cities from 1999 to 2016. On average, the mergers decrease the frequency, but there are large differences between the five mergers. We hypothesize that these differences resulted from differences in the market and network structures. Our estimations indicate that, if a destination has more connecting flights of the merging airlines, the merger is less detrimental to the frequency, possibly because the merger removes serial marginalization in the quality and price setting. For the market structure effect, we use two distinct set-ups. In the first set-up, the effects of mergers depend on a lagged variable measuring the current market structure. On routes with stronger competition, mergers decrease the frequency more, possibly due to a larger effect on the market structure. When the merging airlines control all the flights, mergers have almost no impact on the frequency. The second set-up uses the market structure before the merger. When one of the merging partners controlled all the flights between two airports, the merger does not directly affect the market structure and seems to have little to no impact on the frequency. Surprisingly, if both partners were flying between two airports before the merger, this merger does not seem to be more harmful to the frequency than when only one partner was operating on the route. |
| Keywords: | Mergers; quality; airlines; schedule delay; frequency |
| JEL: | D22 L13 L93 R40 |
| Date: | 2017–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20170079&r=tre |
| By: | Alireza Ermagun; Snigdhansu Chatterjee; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | This empirical study sheds light on the spatial correlation of traffic links under different traffic regimes. We mimic the behavior of real traffic by pinpointing the spatial correlation between 140 freeway traffic links in a major sub-network of the Minneapolis—St. Paul freeway system with a grid-like network topology. This topology enables us to juxtapose the positive and negative correlation between links, which has been overlooked in short-term traffic forecasting models. To accurately and reliably measure the correlation between traffic links, we develop an algorithm that eliminates temporal trends in three dimensions: (1) hourly dimension, (2) weekly dimension, and (3) system dimension for each link. The spatial correlation of traffic links exhibits a stronger negative correlation in rush hours, when congestion affects route choice. Although this correlation occurs mostly in parallel links, it is also observed upstream, where travelers receive information and are able to switch to substitute paths. Irrespective of the time-of-day and day-of-week, a strong positive correlation is witnessed between upstream and downstream links. This correlation is stronger in uncongested regimes, as traffic flow passes through consecutive links more quickly and there is no congestion effect to shift or stall traffic. The extracted spatial correlation structure can augment the accuracy of short-term traffic forecasting models. |
| Keywords: | statistics, spatial weight matrix, traffic forecasting, network weight matrix Publication status: Published in PLoS One. 12(5): e0176853. |
| JEL: | R41 R48 C21 C31 C33 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:detrending&r=tre |
| By: | Alireza Ermagun; David Levinson (School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the dependency between traffic links using a three-dimensional data detrending algorithm to build a network weight matrix in a real-world example. The network weight matrix reveals how links are spatially dependent in a complex network and detects the competi- tive and complementary nature of traffic links. We model the traffic flow of 140 traffic links in a sub-network of the Minneapolis - St. Paul highway system for both rush hour and non-rush hour time intervals, and validate the extracted network weight matrix. The results of the modeling indi- cate: (1) the spatial weight matrix is unstable over time-of-day, while the network weight matrix is robust in all cases and (2) the performance of the network weight matrix in non-rush hour traffic regimes is significantly better than rush hour traffic regimes. The results of the validation show the network weight matrix outperforms the traditional way of capturing spatial dependency between traffic links. Averaging over all traffic links and time, this superiority is about 13.2% in rush hour and 15.3% in non-rush hour, when only the 1st -order neighboring links are embedded in modeling. Aside from the superiority in forecasting, a remarkable capability of the network weight matrix is its stability and robustness over time, which is not observed in spatial weight matrix. In addition, this study proposes a naïve two-step algorithm to search and identify the best look-back time win- dow for upstream links. We indicate the best look-back time window depends on the travel time between two study detectors, and it varies by time-of-day and traffic link. |
| Keywords: | Traffic Forecasting; Spatial correlation; Competitive links; Traffic Flow; Weight matrix |
| JEL: | R41 R48 C21 C31 C33 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:shorttermtrafficforecasting&r=tre |
| By: | Isabelle Laplace (ENAC - Ecole Nationale de l'Aviation Civile); Chantal Latgé-Roucolle (LEEA - ENAC - Laboratoire d'Economie et d'Econométrie de l'Aérien - ENAC - Ecole Nationale de l'Aviation Civile); Aliya Ussinova (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - Toulouse School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | An innovations in airline industry has significant impact on the behavior of its participants: airline companies, airports and passengers. In this paper the innovation that is studied is an introduction of double-deck plane – A-380, which is currently the largest aircraft. Due to its size, it is able to carry at once approximately twice as many passenger as the other medium-sized aircraft, thus, allowing to reduce the frequency, and, as a consequence, induce lower environmental impact. However, in reality, flight frequency depends on many other factors such as airport fees, demand and strategic decision of companies to maximize their profits under competition. Using the monthly panel observations of airline companies over 10 years on 121 routes, we test if the utilization of A-380 leads to the decrease in airline company’s flight frequency. Moreover, we analyze the response of the use of A-380 on the competitors’frequency. We find that increase in usage of A-380 leads to the decrease of company’s own frequency, whereas the competitors have incentive to increase its frequency by differentiating their flights by departure time in order to attract passengers who value the availability of flight at a particular hour. |
| Keywords: | A-380,frequency of flight,airline innovation,airline competition |
| Date: | 2016–11–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01424922&r=tre |
| By: | Alireza Ermagun; David Levinson (School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | This study defines and detects competitive and complementary links in a complex network and constructs theories illustrating how the variation of traffic flow is interconnected with network structure. To test the hypotheses, we extract a grid-like sub-network containing 140 traffic links from the Minneapolis - St. Paul highway system. We reveal a real-world traffic network comprises both competitive and complementary links, and there is a negative network dependency between a competitive link pair and a positive network dependency between a complementary link pair. We validate a robust linear relationship between standard deviation of flow in a link and its number of competitive links, its link correlation with competitive links, and its network dependency with both competitive and complementary links. The results indicate the number of competitive links in a traffic network is negatively correlated with the variation of traffic flow in congested regimes as drivers are able to take alternative paths. The results also signify that the more the traffic flow of a link is correlated to the traffic flow of its competitive links, the more the flow variation is in the link. Considering the network dependency, however, it is corroborated that the more the network dependency between a link and its competitive links, the more the flow variation in the link. This is also true for complementary links. |
| Keywords: | Traffic flow variations; Reliability; Competitive links; Weight matrix; Network structure |
| JEL: | R41 R48 C21 C31 C33 L14 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:trafficflowvariation&r=tre |
| By: | Sarmento, Joaquim Miranda; Renneboog, Luc (Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management); Verga-Matos, Pedro |
| Abstract: | A growing concern exists regarding the efficiency of public resources spent in transport infrastructures. In this paper, we measure the efficiency of seven highway projects in Portugal over the past decade by means of a data envelopment analysis and the Malmquist productivity and efficiency indices. We distinguish between technical and technological efficiency and find that most highways face a reduction over time in both types of efficiency. This reduction is mainly due to an increase in operating and maintenance costs, follow-up investments, and a decline in traffic. Some highways only experience a reduction in technological efficiency after a decrease in traffic. They compensate with cost controls and stable investments. While controlling for scale efficiencies, we find a lack of pure technical efficiency in highways that are not subject to a competitive environment, which produces a lack of incentives for better management. Not only does evidence exist of poor management due to a lack of competition, but the increased use of outsourcing also increases inefficiencies. The introduction of tolls and the outburst of the economic crisis in Portugal have substantially reduced traffic that further contributes to inefficiency. The local context, such as highways in low-income areas and rural regions with a lower traffic density, also affects highway performance. |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tiu:tiutis:23264815-321e-45a3-83ee-92575535f277&r=tre |
| By: | Erik (E.T.) Verhoef (VU Amsterdam; Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands) |
| Abstract: | Recent empirical work has suggested that there is an important distinction between short-run versus long-run scheduling behaviour of commuters, reflected in differences in values of time and schedule delays, as well as in preferred arrival moments, for the short-run versus the long-run problem. Peer et al. (2015) for example find that the average value of time when consumers form their routines in the long-run problem may exceed by a factor 6 the short-run value that governs departure time choice given these routines. For values of schedule delay, in contrast, the short-run value exceeds the long-run value, by a factor 2. And, when forming routines, consumers in fact choose a most preferred arrival time that may deviate from the value they would choose in absence of congestion because a change in routines may mean that shorter delays will be encountered. This paper investigates whether this distinction between short-run and long-run scheduling decisions affect optimal pricing of a congestible facility. Using a stochastic dynamic model of flow congestion for describing short-run equilibria and integrating it with a dynamic model of routine formation, it is found that consistent application of short-run first-best optimal congestion pricing does not optimally decentralize the optimal formation of routines in the long-run problem. A separate instrument, next to road pricing, is therefore needed to optimize routine formation. |
| Keywords: | Congestion pricing; dynamic congestion; scheduling |
| JEL: | R41 R48 D62 |
| Date: | 2017–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20170077&r=tre |
| By: | Laurent Guihéry (MRTE - Laboratoire de géographie Mobilités, Réseaux, Territoires, Environnements - Université de Cergy Pontoise) |
| Abstract: | City logistics projects and research on pooling logistics activities, especially in urban area, are nowadays on the agenda of land use planners and transport economist researchers. There is a general agreement on the relevancy, success and implementation of these strategies: acceptability of urban population is good, as (diesel motorized) trucks entering cities are considered as damaging the environment and generating strong nuisances on the neighbourhood. Local politicians and public policy designers have integrated these projects in new urban plans and future city modelling. Setting up an organization between shippers, transport companies, logisticians, supported by local authorities, needs a clear and rigorous analysis. Do we have to take into account the long term impact on innovation and possible distortion of competition and cartelization? |
| Keywords: | city-logistics, urban studies, spatial competition |
| Date: | 2016–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01476465&r=tre |
| By: | Audrey Berry (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Y Jouffe (LAB'URBA - LAB'URBA - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12); Nicolas Coulombel (LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - IFSTTAR - Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech); Celine Guivarch (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the issue of fuel poverty and of its measurement in the transport sector. We seek to identify households who run the risk of facing difficulties if fuel prices increase. We show that fuel poverty indicators from the domestic sector are not satisfactory in this regard. They fail to take into account three specificities of the transport sector: (1) the diversity of travel needs, (2) restriction behaviours, and (3) variable capacities to adapt. We propose a composite indicator that targets factors of vulnerabilities. In contrast to the previous indicators, it does not solely focus on budgetary aspects but also reflects conditions of mobility. Three levels of exposition to rising fuel prices are considered, depending on the combinations of factors. We test this indicator on French data and find that 7,8% of French households are identified fuel poor, a further 7,4% fuel vulnerable and a further 3,7% fuel dependent. |
| Keywords: | Transport,Fuel poverty,Vulnerability,Measurement |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01277414&r=tre |
| By: | Claude Mathys (NBB, Microeconomic Information department) |
| Abstract: | This paper is an annual publication issued by the Microeconomic Analysis service of the National Bank of Belgium. The Flemish maritime ports (Antwerp, Ghent, Ostend, Zeebrugge), the Autonomous Port of Liège and the port of Brussels play a major role in their respective regional economies and in the Belgian economy, not only in terms of industrial activity but also as intermodal centers facilitating the commodity flow. This update paper1 provides an extensive overview of the economic importance and development of the Flemish maritime ports, the Liège port complex and the port of Brussels for the period 2010 - 2015, with an emphasis on 2015. Focusing on the three major variables of value added, employment and investment, the report also provides some information based on the social balance sheet and an overview of the financial situation in these ports as a whole. These observations are linked to a more general context, along with a few cargo statistics. Annual accounts data from the Central Balance Sheet Office were used for the calculation of direct effects, the study of financial ratios and the analysis of the social balance sheet. The indirect effects of the activities concerned were estimated in terms of value added and employment, on the basis of data from the National Accounts Institute. As a result of the underlying calculation method the changes of indirect employment and indirect value added can differ from one another. The developments concerning economic activity in the six ports in 2014 - 2015 are summarized in the table on the next page. In 2015 the growth of maritime traffic in the Flemish maritime ports was due to developments in the port of Antwerp and the port of Ghent. Direct value added increased in all Flemish maritime ports in 2015. However, direct employment is continuing to decline. Investment was down everywhere except in the port of Zeebrugge. Cargo traffic in the Liège port complex declined in 2015, whereas it slightly slowed down in the port of Brussels. At the same time, direct value added in Liège shrank while it rose sharply in the port of Brussels. By contrast, direct employment was down in both ports. This report provides a comprehensive account of these issues, giving details for each economic sector, although the comments are confined to the main changes that occurred in 2015. |
| Keywords: | Flemish maritime ports, Liège port complex and the port of Brussels – Report 2015 |
| JEL: | C67 H57 J21 L22 L91 L92 R15 R34 R41 |
| Date: | 2017–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbb:reswpp:201706-321&r=tre |
| By: | Cheng Keat Tang |
| Abstract: | I evaluate whether speed enforcement cameras reduce the number and severity of traffic accidents by penalizing drivers for exceeding speed limits. Relying on micro data on accidents and speed cameras across Great Britain, I find that installing these devices significantly enhance road safety. Putting another 1,000 cameras reduce around 1130 collisions, 330 serious injuries, and save 190 lives annually, generating net benefits of around £21 million. However, these effects are highly localised around the camera and dissipate over distance, and there is suggestive evidence of more collisions away from the camera, illustrating the possible limitations associated with fixed speed cameras. |
| Keywords: | accidents, injuries, fatalities, speed camera, speeding |
| JEL: | H23 I18 R41 |
| Date: | 2017–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:sercdp:0221&r=tre |
| By: | Kiesel, F.; Ries, J. M.; Tielmann, A. |
| Abstract: | Logistic service providers are facing significant challenges in recent years due to intensified competition and ever-increasing customer expectations for cohesive high-standard services at low cost. To cope with these developments many companies aim for external growth to realize operational efficiencies and exploit productive opportunities of new markets and diversified services. Accordingly, 2015 has even become the most active year for mergers and acquisitions in logistic service industry. However, studies examining the post-merger performance effect and its determinants are scarce. Consequently, this paper takes up this issue by analysing a sample of 826 transaction announcements taken place between 1996 and 2015 and their performance effect in terms of short- and long-term abnormal shareholder returns. The results reveal, that although overall transactions exhibit significant positive abnormal returns, post-merger performance for the acquiring companies differs considerably according to the logistic services offered. In the short-term trucking, railway, 3PL and air cargo companies experience significant positive abnormal returns of about 0.6%-2.6%, while sea freight carriers realize only marginal effects and CEP companies do even not show any significant reaction. In the long-term, railway and 3PL companies realize a significant abnormal return of about 20%-24%, while trucking, sea freight and air cargo carriers do not exhibit significant returns and CEP companies do even experience significant losses of about –17%. Overall, diversifying transactions of established full-service providers outperform focus-increasing transactions of specialised operators. |
| Date: | 2017–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:89225&r=tre |
| By: | André De Palma (ENS Cachan - École normale supérieure - Cachan, Université Paris-Saclay); Claude Lefèvre (ULB - Université Libre de Bruxelles [Bruxelles]) |
| Abstract: | This paper is concerned with the problem of departure times in dynamic bottleneck models. First, the case of a set of individual drivers is discussed through both deterministic and stochastic approaches. Then, the analysis is extended to a new model that combines small and large agents. In the stochastic setting, our focus is mainly on the model building and simulations will be carried out in a near future. |
| Keywords: | dynamic bottleneck models,congestion,equilibrium,deterministic version,stochastic approach,small and large agents,discrete choice models |
| Date: | 2017–09–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01581519&r=tre |