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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Donald N. Dewees |
| Abstract: | Recent press reports have celebrated the development of automated or ‘self-driving’ cars and the benefits they would bring, yet actual benefits may fall far short of this potential. Drivers are exposed to only a fraction of the costs of accidents that they cause, they may underestimate the risks of accidents, and automated features may work in only a fraction of all driving situations. Studies have found that some drivers respond to safety devices by driving more ‘intensely,’ and some drivers refuse to accept even proven occupant protection devices such as seat belts. More drivers will resist the purchase and utilization of automated vehicle features that change their driving behaviour, especially if this reduces the speed or enjoyment of their driving. This paper analyzes the likely response of drivers to automated safety features. It suggests that benefits will be much less than forecast and will mostly occur a decade or two in the future because of driver behaviour and our likely reluctance to force drivers to submit to automated control in most driving situations. The shortfall in benefits will depend in part on the details of motor vehicle insurance policies and on public policies adopted by state, provincial and federal governments. There is an economic argument for policy encouragement of cost-effective accident-avoidance features but not for features that save time for the driver. |
| Keywords: | autonomous vehicles, automobile accident avoidance, driving intensity, auto insurance risk-rating, moral hazard |
| JEL: | K13 R41 |
| Date: | 2016–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tor:tecipa:tecipa-564&r=tre |
| By: | Richard Arnott (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside); Anatolii Kokoza (Department of Economics, University of Arizona); Mehdi Naji (Department of Money and Foreign Currencies, Money and Banking Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | For a quarter century, a top priority in transportation economic theory has been to develop models of rush-hour traffic dynamics that incorporate hypercongestion – situations of heavy congestion where throughput decreases as traffic density increases. Unfortunately, even the simplest models along these lines appear to be analytically intractable, and none of the models that have made approximations in order to achieve tractability has gained widespread acceptance. This paper takes a different tack focusing on a special case – the isotropic model with identical commuters and the α − β − γ cost function – for which an analytical solution is possible. A complete, closed-form solution is presented for the no-toll equilibrium in which departures and arrivals occur in masses, and the solution for the social optimum is fully characterized. |
| Keywords: | equilibrium, rush hour, traffic congestion |
| JEL: | L91 R41 |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucr:wpaper:201612&r=tre |
| By: | Samira Barzin; Sabine D'Costa; Daniel Graham |
| Abstract: | We construct a pseudo-panel of Colombian firms based on the Colombian Annual Manufacturing Survey to study the effects of transportation infrastructure on firm performance in a developing country. Our findings report an output elasticity with respect to road infrastructure of 0.132 to 0.146 across the specifications, which confirms our initial hypothesis that roads are an important driver for private sector output growth. The fact that our results are larger than those reported in the literature for developed countries could suggest that the role of transportation infrastructure is relatively more important for the economy of developing countries. Furthermore, our findings reveal that there exists a time lag with which firms’ productions react to changes in the road stock. We interpret these findings as firms requiring time to adjust their production processes to road improvements of at least a year. We furthermore identify that the effect of road infrastructure is particularly large for those manufacturing industries that are capital-intensive and produce heavy goods. Further robustness tests reveal that our results are not driven by the possibility of agglomeration economies or the chosen measurement of transportation infrastructure. We additionally provide Monte Carlo simulations to provide support for the validity of pseudo-panels in the context of firm-level data. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure; Roads; Economic Development; Pseudo-Panels; Monte Carlo Simulations; Latin America; Colombia |
| JEL: | O18 O14 R42 C15 |
| Date: | 2016–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgs:wpaper:69&r=tre |
| By: | Jacob, Jonathan; Buer, Tobias |
| Abstract: | A coalition of freight carriers is considered which has to decide how to allocate a pool of transport requests among its members. The literature is aware of a number of solution approaches which usually assume truthful behavior of the freight carriers. However, the used negotiation protocols are mostly not proven to enforce truthful behavior. This paper gives some insights into the impact of non-truthful behavior via computational experiments. We solve the collaborative problem via a genetic algorithm (GA) which is operated by an auctioneer. The GA’s individu- als are allocations of requests to carriers. To calculate the fitness of an individual, the carriers bid on the allocations. Bidding below a carrier’s true valuation could ceteris paribus increase its profits. However, understated valuations can influence the search process negatively, in particular when a favoured allocation is dismissed wrongly. It is shown via computational experiments that for six tested instances, bidding non-truthfully is individually, but not collectively, rational and results in a kind of prisoner’s dilemma. |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bclgwp:3&r=tre |
| By: | Lauren E. Jones (Ohio State University, Department of Human Sciences); Nicolas Ziebarth (Cornell University) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the effectiveness of child safety seat laws. These laws progressively increased the mandatory age up to which children must be restrained in safety seats in cars. We use US Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data from 1978 to 2011 and rich state- time level variation in the implementation of these child safety seat laws for children of different ages. Increasing legal age thresholds is effective in increasing the actual age of child safety seat use. Across the child age distribution, restraint rates increase by about 30ppt in the long-run when the legal minimum age increases. However, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that restraining older children in safety seats does not reduce their likelihood to die in fatal accidents. We estimate that parents of 8.6M young children are “legal compliers.†They compose an important target group for policymakers because these parents alter their parenting behavior when laws change. |
| Keywords: | Child safety seats, age requirements, fatalities, FARS |
| JEL: | I18 K32 R41 |
| Date: | 2016–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:duh:wpaper:1603&r=tre |
| By: | Frondel, Manuel; Vance, Colin |
| Abstract: | Drawing on a panel of German survey data spanning 1997-2013, this paper identifi es the correlates of non-recreational bicycling, focusing specifi cally on the roles of bicycle paths and fuel prices. Our approach conceptualizes ridership as a two stage decision process comprising the discrete choice of whether to use the bike (i.e. the intensive margin) and the continuous choice of how far to ride (i.e. the extensive margin). To the extent that these two choices are related and, moreover, potentially infl uenced by factors unobservable to the researcher, we explore alternative estimators using twostage censored regression techniques to assess whether the results are subject to biases from sample selectivity. A key fi nding is that while higher fuel costs are associated with an increased probability of undertaking non-recreational bike trips, this eff ect is predicated on residence in an urbanized region. We also fi nd evidence for a positive association with the extent of bike paths, both in increasing the probability of nonrecreational bike travel as well as the distance traveled. |
| Keywords: | bicycle paths,fuel prices,non-recreational cycling |
| JEL: | D13 Q41 Q58 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:627&r=tre |
| By: | Hirte, Georg; Tscharaktschiew, Stefan |
| Abstract: | The transport and urban economics literature applies different labor supply approaches when studying economic or planning instruments. Some studies assume that working hours are endogenous while the number of workdays is given, whereas others model only decisions on workdays. Unfortunately, empirical evidence does hardly exist on account of missing data. Against this background, we provide an assessment of whether general effects of transport policies are robust against the modeling of leisure demand and labor supply. We introduce different labor supply approaches into a spatial general equilibrium model and discuss how they affect the welfare implication of congestion policies. We, then, perform simulations and find that in many cases the choice of labor supply modeling not only affects the magnitude of the policy impact but also its direction. While planning instruments are suggested to be quite robust to different labor supply approaches, the way of modeling labor supply may crucially affect the overall welfare implications of economic instruments such as congestion tolls. Based on these findings it becomes clear which labor supply approach is the most appropriate given specific conditions. Our study also emphasizes the need for better micro labor market data that also feature days of sickness, overtime work used to reduce workdays, the actual number of leave days, part-time work, days with telecommuting etc. |
| Keywords: | Public Economics,Tax Efficiency,Time Allocation,Labor Supply,Pigouvian,Tax,Environmental Economics,Urban Economics,Spatial Economics,Regional Welfare,Land-Use,Zoning,CGE,Spatial Economics,Spatial Modeling,Transportation |
| JEL: | H2 H3 J22 Q5 R1 R4 R5 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:tuddps:0115&r=tre |
| By: | Wang, Xu; Zhang, Xiaobo; Xie, Zhuan; Huang, Yiping |
| Abstract: | Although both infrastructure and innovation play an important role in fostering a country’s economic growth, discussion in the literature about how the two are connected is limited. This paper examines the impact of road density on firm innovation in China using a matched patent database at the firm level and road information at the city level. Regional variation in the difficulty of constructing roads is used as an instrumental variable to address the potential endogeneity problem of the road variable. The empirical results show that a 10 percent improvement in road density increases the average number of approved patents per firm by 0.71 percent. Road development spurs innovation by enlarging market size and facilitating knowledge spillover. |
| Keywords: | CHINA, EAST ASIA, ASIA, infrastructure, innovation, transportation, technology transfer, knowledge diffusion, O31 Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives, O33 Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes, R11 Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes, R40 Transportation Economics: General, |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:1542&r=tre |
| By: | Paul Carrillo; Andrea López; Arun Malik |
| Abstract: | Driving restriction programs have been implemented in many cities around the world to alleviate pollution and congestion problems. Enforcement of such programs is costly and can potentially displace policing resources used for crime prevention and crime detection. Hence, driving restrictions may increase crime. To test this hypothesis, this paper exploits both temporal and spatial variation in the implementation of Quito, Ecuador's Pico y Placa program and evaluates its effect on crime. Both difference-in-difference and spatial regression discontinuity estimates provide credible evidence that driving restrictions can increase crime rates. |
| Keywords: | Crime Rate, Criminal Activities, Pollution prevention, Public transport, Road Traffic Control, Crime Prevention, Citizen security, Police Officers, policing resources, criminal activity, pollution prevention, air pollution |
| JEL: | C20 Q52 R28 R48 |
| Date: | 2016–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idb:brikps:94896&r=tre |
| By: | Peters, Jörg |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the book 'Infrastructure and Poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa' by Antonio Estache and Quentin Wodon. The authors summarize the political debate on infrastructure policy in Africa in a very compelling and knowledgeable way and make a convincing case for pro-poor subsidies. Yet, this review points out two reservations: The evidence on the welfare enhancing benefits of infrastructure investments is less conclusive than suggested in the book. The book also misses out on the recent technological developments that enable the provision of decentralized services, which might render classical network based infrastructure partly redundant in the future. |
| Keywords: | electrification,road infrastructure,water and sanitation |
| JEL: | H54 O13 O18 L91 L95 L96 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:rwirep:628&r=tre |
| By: | Muhammad Halley Yudhistira (Institute for Economic and Social Research (LPEM), School of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia); Yusuf Sofyandi (Institute for Economic and Social Research (LPEM), School of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | As the biggest archipelago nation, Indonesia considers port infrastructure one of the most important infrastructures in bolstering the regional economic development. In this paper, we study the impacts of access to the existing port infrastructure on regional development, i.e. income per capita, productivity, and poverty at district level in Indonesia. While other similar studies use the size of seaport, we argue that the access may be much more important. Additionally, using access variable accommodates spillover effect of the seaport for landlocked district. We define access to the nearest port as the shortest distance of the respective district to the nearest port. Our estimation results show that proximity to the main ports provides positive effect on GDP per capita, labor productivity, poverty rate, and poverty rate. We also find the importance of ports may vary between Java and non-Java regions.Length: 14 pages |
| Keywords: | seaport status, distance, regional economic development, seaport access, Indonesia |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:wpecbs:201601&r=tre |
| By: | Paetzold, Jörg (University of Salzburg); Winner, Hannes (University of Salzburg) |
| Abstract: | This paper provides evidence of evasion in the context of a widely used commuter tax allowance, and explores evasion spillovers as a determinant of the individual compliance decision. For this purpose, we exploit discontinuities in the commuter allowance scheme and employ a research design resting on a large panel of individual tax returns. We find that around 30 percent of all allowance claims are overstated and, consistent with deliberate tax evasion, we observe sharp reactions of taxpayers to thresholds where the allowance discretely jumps to a higher amount. Further, we use variation in job changes to uncover spillover effects from the work environment on the individual compliance decision. These effects appear to be asymmetric: Job changers moving to companies with a higher fraction of cheaters increase their cheating. In contrast, movers to companies with a lower fraction of cheaters tend not to alter their reporting behavior. We provide suggestive evidence that the spillover has more to do with an information environment, but can ultimately not reject other behavioral explanations such as asymmetric persistence of norms. |
| Keywords: | Tax Evasion; Self-Reporting; Tax Deductions; Spillover Effects |
| JEL: | D83 H24 H26 |
| Date: | 2016–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:sbgwpe:2016_004&r=tre |