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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Arthur (Yan) Huang; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | WThis research investigates how land use and road network structure influence home-based single-destination choice in the context of trip chains, using the in-vehicle GPS travel data in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan area. We propose a new choice set formation approach which combines survival analysis and random selection. Our empirical findings reveal that: (1) Accessibility and diversity of services at the destination influences individuals’ destination choice. (2) Route-specific network measures such as turn index, speed discontinuity, and trip chains’ travel time saving ratio also display statistically significant effects on destination choice. Our approach contributes to methodologies in modeling destination choice. The results improve our understanding on travel behavior and have implications on transportation and land use planning. |
| Keywords: | destination choice, GPS, accessibility, non-work travel |
| JEL: | R14 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:singledestchoice&r=tre |
| By: | Martijn Brons (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Panos Christidis (European Commission – JRC - IPTS) |
| Abstract: | The Marco Polo programme of the European Commission aims to shift or avoid freight transport off the roads to other more environmentally friendly transport modes. The programme is implemented through yearly calls for proposals. The proposals received to each call are selected for financial support inter alia on the basis of their merits in terms of environmental and social benefits. The evaluation of each proposal's merits in terms of environmental and social benefits is based on the external costs for each transport mode. On the Commission’s request the Joint Research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS) modified and updated the methodology underlying the calculation of external costs and the software application that automates the estimation of the impact on external costs for specific projects. The work was based on a combination of data and model results that allow the estimation of transport volumes, fleet mixes, levels of utilisation and resulting externalities with up-to-date methodologies for the economic valuation of these externalities. The new external cost methodology and calculator covers road, rail, inland waterways and short sea shipping. External cost coefficients are provided for environmental impacts (air quality, noise, climate change) and socio-economic impacts (accidents, congestion). The methodology permits the estimation of external cost coefficients for specific mode subcategories based on fuel technology, cruising speed, vehicle size, and cargo type. The present methodological note describes the methodology and calculator used to evaluate proposals submitted for the 2013 Marco Polo call for projects. The note is an updated version of a report entitled "External cost calculator for Marco Polo freight transport project proposals - Call 2013 version", published in April 2013 by the European Union under ISSN 1831-9424. |
| Keywords: | freight transport, external costs of transport, sustainable transport, transport technology |
| JEL: | F18 Q51 Q53 Q54 Q55 Q56 R41 |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc82783&r=tre |
| By: | Michael Janson; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | The Minnesota Department of Transportation (MnDOT) has added MnPASS High Occupancy Toll (HOT) lanes on two freeway corridors. While not the first HOT lanes in the country, the MnPASS lanes are the first implementation of road pricing in Minnesota and possess a dynamic pricing schedule. Tolls charged to single occupancy vehicles (SOVs) are adjusted every three minutes according to HOT lane vehicle density. Given the infancy of systems like MnPASS, questions remain about drivers’ responses to toll prices. Three field experiments were conducted on the corridors during which prices were changed. Data from the field experiments as well as two years of toll and traffic data were analyzed to measure driver responses to pricing changes. Driver elasticity to price was positive with magnitudes less than 1.0. This positive relationship between price and demand is in contrast with the previously held belief that raising the price would discourage demand. We hypothesize this is because drivers use price as a signal of time savings. In addition, drivers consistently paid between approximately $60-120 per hour of travel time savings, much higher than the average value of time. Reasoning for these results is discussed as well as the implications these results have on the pricing of HOT lanes. |
| Keywords: | transport economics, HOT Lanes, road pricing, |
| JEL: | O18 R48 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:hotornot&r=tre |
| By: | Andrew Owen; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the results of an accessibility-based model of aggregate commute mode share, focusing on the share of transit relative to auto. It demonstrates the use of continuous accessibility — calculated continuously in time, rather than at a single or a few departure times — for the evaluation of transit systems. These accessibility calculations are accomplished using only publicly-available data sources. A binomial logit model is estimated which predicts the likelihood that a commuter will choose transit rather than auto for a commute trip based on aggregate characteristics of the surrounding area. Variables in this model include demographic factors as well as detailed accessibility calculations for both transit and auto. The model achieves a Ï2 value of 0.597, and analysis of the results suggests that continuous accessibility of transit systems may be a valuable tool for use in modeling and forecasting. |
| Keywords: | travel behavior, accessibility, mode choice |
| JEL: | R14 R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:modelingcommutemodeshare&r=tre |
| By: | Krüger, Niclas A. (VTI); Vierth , Inge (VTI); Fakhraei Roudsari, Farzad (TRENoP) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes how freight train delays are distributed with respect to size, location and time of their occurrence. Arrival delays are analyzed in detail using data covering all freight train departures and arrivals during 2008 and 2009 in Sweden. Moreover, the link between capacity usage and expected delay is analyzed using the fact that demand fluctuates on different time scales, especially due to the economic chock in 2009. Since the distribution of delays on different scales describe reliability and vulnerability in the rail transport system, the results have potentially important policy implications for rail investment appraisal. |
| Keywords: | Fat-tails; Freight; Delays; Rail; Reliability; Vulnerability |
| JEL: | R41 |
| Date: | 2013–08–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2013_008&r=tre |
| By: | Andrew Owen; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the results of an investigation into the factors contributing to toll lane subscription choice using data from the MnPASS HOT lane system operated by the Minnesota Department of Transportation. A binomial logit model is estimated which predicts the likelihood that a household will have a subscription to the MnPASS system based on aggregate characteristics of the surrounding area. Variables in this model include demographic factors as well as an estimate of the incremental accessibility benefit provided by the MnPASS system. This benefit is estimated using detailed accessibility calculations. The model achieves a pseudo-r-squared value of 0.634, and analysis of the results suggest that incremental accessibility benefits play a statistically and practically significant role in determining how likely households are to hold a toll lane subscription. |
| Keywords: | road pricing, travel behavior, subscription choice, HOT lanes, accessibility |
| JEL: | O18 R48 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:subscriptionchoice&r=tre |
| By: | Michael Iacono; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the relationship between the growth of road networks and regional development. We test for mutual causality between the growth of road networks (which are divided functionally into local roads and highways) and changes in county-level population and employment. We employ a panel data set containing observations of road mileage by type for all Minnesota counties over the period 1988 to 2007 to fit a model describing changes in road networks, population and employment. Results indicate that causality runs in both directions between population and local road networks, while no evidence of causality in either direction is found for networks and local employment. We interpret the findings as evidence of a weakening influence of road networks (and transportation more generally) on location, and suggest methods for refining the empirical approach described herein. |
| Keywords: | network expansion, economic evaluation, regional growth, rural development, economic development |
| JEL: | O18 R42 R48 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:statepanel&r=tre |
| By: | Jessica Schoner; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota) |
| Abstract: | Bike share systems are an emerging technology in the United States and worldwide, but little is known about how people integrate bike share trip segments into their daily travel. Through this research, we attempt to fill this knowledge gap by studying how people navigate from place to place using the Nice Ride Minnesota bike share system in Minneapolis and St. Paul. We develop a theoretical model for bike share station choice inspired by research on transit route choice literature. We then model people’s choice of origin station using a conditional logit model to evaluate their sensitivity to time spent walking, deviation from the shortest path, and a set of station amenity and neighborhood control variables. As expected, people prefer to use stations that do not require long detours out of the way to access. However, commuters and non-work travelers differ in how they value the walking portion of their trip, and what station amenities and neighborhood features increase a station’s utility. The results from this study will be important for planners who need a better understanding of bike share user behavior in order to design or optimize their system. The findings also provide a strong foundation for future study about comprehensive route choice analysis of this new bicycling technology. |
| Keywords: | destination choice, station choice, bicycling, bike sharing |
| JEL: | R41 R42 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:stationchoice&r=tre |
| By: | Bruce A. Babcock (Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD)) |
| Abstract: | Biofuel mandates in 2014 and 2015 are scheduled to push ethanol consumption beyond the E10 blend wall—the amount of ethanol that can be easily consumed in the United States in a 10 percent ethanol and 90 percent gasoline blend. Numerous interest groups and academics are calling on the Environmental Protection Agency to cut back on scheduled mandate increases because of the uncertainty of the cost and exactly how ethanol consumption can be increased beyond E10. The uncertainty centers around the position of the “beyond-E10†demand curve for ethanol, which simply measures the response of ethanol consumption to lower ethanol prices at ethanol quantities above 13 billion gallons. Some oil companies argue that there is no demand for ethanol above 13 billion gallons so that it is physically impossible for them to mandate using ethanol. Others argue that there may be a demand curve, but that possible consumption quantities are quite limited. The reason why there is uncertainty about the position of ethanol demand above 13 billion gallons is because we have no US data to observe consumption above the E10 blend wall. However, insight into the question of what the demand curve might look like can be obtained by estimating the demand for E85 by owners of flex vehicles using data from Brazilian drivers who choose between ethanol and gasoline largely based on relative costs per mile. A key difference between Brazil and the United States is that in Brazil every station sells both ethanol and gasoline, whereas US drivers must search for a station that sells E85. We account for this difference by calculating the additional distance that must be traveled by owners of US flex vehicles to a station that sells E85. The further the distance the greater the fuel savings must be from E85. The resulting demand curve for ethanol above the E10 blend wall suggests E85 consumption of about one billion gallons if E85 were priced to generate a six percent reduction in fuel costs. If the price were lowered further to generate a 15 percent reduction then about two billion gallons could be consumed, and a 30 percent reduction would be needed to induce three billion gallons of consumption. These estimates do not account for the increase in the size of the flex vehicle fleet in 2013 and 2014 or the likely increase in the number of stations that will find E85 an attractive fuel to sell. These results suggest that rather than being a physical barrier to increased ethanol consumption, the E10 blend wall is an economic barrier that can be overcome by increasing the incentive for drivers to use E85 to fuel their vehicles. Current RIN (Renewable Identification Numbers) prices are high enough to achieve modest increases in ethanol consumption above 13 billion gallons and to create incentives to increase the ability to consume lower-carbon ethanol in 2016 and beyond. |
| Date: | 2013–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ias:cpaper:13-pb11&r=tre |