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on Transport Economics |
| By: | Francisco Gallego; Juan-Pablo Montero; Christian Salas |
| Abstract: | In an effort to reduce pollution and congestion, Latin American cities have experimented with different policies to persuade drivers to give up their cars in favor of public transport. Borrowing from the bundling literature, the paper presents a novel model of vertical and horizontal differentiation applied to transport decisions: households differ in their preferences for transportation modes -cars vs public transport- and in the amount of travel. The model captures in a simple way a household's response to a policy shock, i.e., how to allocate existing car capacity, if any, to competing uses (peak vs off-peak hours) and how to adjust such capacity overtime. Using few observables, the model is then used to analyze the effects of two major transport policies: the driving restriction program introduced in Mexico-City in November of 1989 -Hoy-No-Circula (HNC)- and the public transport reform carried out in Santiago in February of 2007 -Transantiago (TS). The model's simulated effects are not only consistent with the econometric estimates in Gallego et al (2013) but also help understand the mechanisms that explain them. |
| Keywords: | public transport, driving restrictions, pollution, congestion |
| JEL: | R41 Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ioe:doctra:432&r=tre |
| By: | Daniel Albalate (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona); Germà Bel (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona); Xavier Fageda (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona) |
| Abstract: | Spain’s transport infrastructure policy has become a paradigmatic case of oversupply and of mismatch with demand. The massive expansion of the country’s transport infrastructure over the last decade has not been a response to demand bottlenecks or previously identified needs. For this reason, the intensity of use today on all interurban modes of transport in Spain falls well below that of other EU countries. This paper analyzes the institutional and regulatory factors that have permitted this policy, allowing us to draw lessons from the Spanish case that should help other countries avoid the pitfalls and shortcomings of Spanish policy. Based on our analysis, we also discuss policy remedies and suggest reforms in different regulatory areas, which could help improve the performance of Spain’s infrastructure policy. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure, Overcapacity, Regulation, Spain. JEL classification: H54; L91; L98; R41; R42; R48 |
| Date: | 2013–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ira:wpaper:201312&r=tre |
| By: | Monica Beuran; Marie Castaing Gachassin (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne); Gaël Raballand (The World Bank) |
| Abstract: | As planned large investments in road infrastructure continue to be high on the agenda of many African countries, only few of these countries have actually ammended their investments strategy. In many cases, there seems to be a preference for a status quo that can easily be explained by political economy factors driving the policies in the sector. This paper first presents data on the state of roads in Sub-Saharan Africa (length, density, condition) as well as on investments in the sector over the last decades. It then demonstrates how most countries' strategies are based on some misperceptions and recommends some changes to improve the developmental impact of roads investments. Better prioritization of investments, better procurement and contract management, better projects implementation and better monitoring are still needed, in spite of the efforts observed in the last 10 years. |
| Keywords: | Transport, roads, Sub-Saharan Africa, strategy, infrastructure, procurement. |
| JEL: | H41 O18 O55 R42 |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:13049&r=tre |
| By: | Guillaume Monchambert (ENS Cachan - Ecole Normale Supérieure de Cachan - École normale supérieure de Cachan - ENS Cachan); André De Palma (ENS Cachan - Ecole Normale Supérieure de Cachan - École normale supérieure de Cachan - ENS Cachan) |
| Abstract: | This paper addresses the two-way implication between punctuality level of public transport and commuter behavior. We consider a modal competition between public transport and an alternative mode. Commuters may choose different strategies to minimize their journey cost. In particular, when the bus becomes less punctual, more potential bus users arrive late at the bus stop. We show that punctuality increases with the alternative mode fare through a price effect. This specificity can be viewed as an extension of the Mohring effect. In the general case, the punctuality of a bus is lower at equilibrium than at optimum. According to the alternative mode operating cost, the bus attracts too many (small cost) or too few (large cost) customers. |
| Keywords: | public transport; reliability; duopoly; welfare; Mohring e ect; schedule delay |
| Date: | 2013–05–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00827972&r=tre |
| By: | Andersson, Henrik; Ögren, Mikael |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ner:toulou:http://neeo.univ-tlse1.fr/3479/&r=tre |
| By: | Salvador Barrios (European Commission – JRC - IPTS); Juan Nicolas Ibañez Rivas (Technical University of Denmark, Department of Transport) |
| Abstract: | The objective of this study is to analyse the potential impact of climate change on EU tourism demand and to provide long-term (2100) scenarios to be used in the general equilibrium GEM-E3 to allow for potential interactions with the rest of the economy. The analysis is based on a bottom-up approach to derive country-wide figures making use of detailed regional data. Our study brings three novel aspects to the existing literature on recreational demand and climate. First, we derive region-specific estimates of the impact of climate change based on tourists flows between European regions taking into account regions' specific characteristics regarding the nature of (and degree of specialisation in) tourism activities and related vulnerability to potential climate change scenarios. Second, our long-term projections for tourism demand are based on hedonic valuation of climatic conditions combining hotel price information and travel cost estimations. Such an approach allows us to consider together the climatic aspect of recreational demand and its travel cost dimension. In doing so we are able to estimate differentiated valuations of climate amenities depending on the distance travelled by tourists by region of origin and destination. This in turn allows us to further differentiate the valuation of climatic conditions depending on the time duration of holidays. Third, based on this travel-cost/holiday duration approach we can derive alternative scenarios for adaptation of holiday demand to potential climate change scenarios combining two dimensions related to adaptation: an institutional dimension, by considering alternative hypotheses regarding the monthly distribution of total tourism demand, and a time dimension by considering alternative scenarios regarding holiday duration. Our main results show that the climate dimension play a significant (economically and statistically) role in explaining hedonic valuations of tourism services and, as a consequence, its variation in the long-term are likely to affect the relative attractiveness of EU regions for recreational demand. In certain cases, most notably the Southern EU Mediterranean countries climate condition in 2100 could under current economic conditions, lower tourism revenues for up to -0.45% of GDP. On the contrary, other areas of the EU, most notably Northern European countries would gain from altered climate conditions, although these gains would be relatively more modest, reaching up to 0.32% of GDP. We also find that adaptation in the duration of holiday rather than on the monthly pattern of holiday could potentially mitigate these losses. |
| Keywords: | Climatic change, tourism, hedonic prices, travel cost, Europe |
| JEL: | Q51 Q54 Q52 R41 |
| Date: | 2013–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc80898&r=tre |
| By: | Ferguson, Shon (Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN)); Olfert, Rose (Johnson-Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy) |
| Abstract: | We measure the impact of the removal of a railway transportation subsidy on the adoption of technology for Western Canadian farms, using a unique combination of Census and freight rate data. We exploit the large regional variation in these one-time freight rate increases in order to identify causal effects of increased competitive pressure. Using a difference-in-differences methodology we find that higher freights rates – and hence lower farm gate prices – induced farmers to adopt new, more efficient production technology. We also find that farmers experiencing the greatest transportation cost increases also increased fertilizer usage and made significant land use changes. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural Trade Liberalization; Export Subsidy; Technical Change |
| JEL: | F14 O13 Q16 Q17 Q18 |
| Date: | 2013–05–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:0966&r=tre |
| By: | Bertho, Fabien |
| Abstract: | This dissertation aims at assessing the impact of liner shipping trade and competition regulations on the market structure, prices, and seaborne trade flows. To quantify the overall level of trade restrictions in the liner shipping sector, I construct an original Service Trade Restrictiveness Index (STRI). The original STRI is included in a two-stage econometric analysis. Since barriers to trade are likely to influence seaborne trade through maritime transport costs (MTCs), in a first stage, I assess the impact of trade restrictions on MTCs. And, in a second stage I assess the impact of MTCs on seaborne trade flows. I show that barriers to trade affect positively MTCs and that MTCs affect negatively seaborne trade flows. Thus, barriers to trade have an indirect and negative impact on seaborne trade flows. Furthermore, I show that distance affects positively MTCs. The results also suggest that besides affecting negatively seaborne trade through MTCs, distance affect directly and positively seaborne trade. I assess the impact of regulatory barriers to entry on the market structure and MTCs. In a first stage, I assess the impact of regulations on the market structure. In a second stage, I assess the impact of the market structure on MTCs. I show that the presence of maritime conferences does not affect the number of carriers on routes while the presence of discussion agreements does. Moreover, when they reach a critical level, barriers to trade limit the number of carriers. Furthermore, I show barriers to trade affect MTCs through the market structure and marginal costs. Finally, I show that shipping exercise a market power even though this effect is small. |
| Abstract: | J’évalue l’impact des réglementations commerciales et concurrentielles dans transport maritime de ligne sur la structure du marché, les coûts de transport et le commerce maritime. D’abord, je quantifie le niveau global des Barrières Commerciales (BC) dans le secteur du transport maritime de ligne en construisant un Indice de Restriction du Commerce des Services (IRCS). Cet indicateur est inclus dans une analyse économétrique en deux étapes. Les BC sont susceptibles d’influencer le commerce maritime à travers les Coûts de Transport Maritime (CTM). Ainsi, j’évalue l'impact des BC sur les CTM, puis l'impact des CTM sur le commerce maritime. Je montre que les BC ont un impact positif sur les CTM et que les CTM ont un impact négatif sur le commerce maritime. Ainsi, les BC ont un impact indirect négatif sur le commerce maritime. Je montre aussi qu’en plus d’affecter négativement le commerce maritime à travers les CTM, la distance a un impact positif direct sur le commerce maritime. Ensuite, j’évalue l'impact des barrières réglementaires à l'entrée sur la structure du marché et les CTM. D’abord, j’évalue l'impact de la réglementation sur la structure du marché. Puis, j’évalue l'impact de la structure du marché sur les CTM. Je montre que la présence de conférences maritimes n’a pas d’impact sur le nombre de compagnies sur les routes alors que la présence d'accords de discussion a un impact positif. De plus, lorsqu’elles atteignent un seuil, les BC ont un impact négatif sur le nombre de compagnies. En outre, je montre les BC affectent les CTM à travers la structure du marché et les coûts marginaux. Enfin, je montre que les compagnies maritimes de ligne exercent un pouvoir de march |
| Keywords: | Transport maritime, service, Coûts de transport, indicateur, commerce, réglementations, concurrence; |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ner:sciepo:info:hdl:2441/7o52iohb7k6srk09mit038srm&r=tre |
| By: | Eliasson, Jonas (KTH Royal Institute of Technology); Fosgerau, Mogens (DTU Transport) |
| Abstract: | A number of highly cited papers by Flyvbjerg and associates have shown that ex-ante infrastructure appraisals tend to be overly optimistic. Ex post evaluations indicate a bias where investment cost is higher and demand lower on average than predicted ex ante. These authors argue that the bias must be attributed to intentional misrepresentation by project developers. This paper shows that the bias may arise simply as a selection bias, without there being any bias at all in predictions ex ante, and that such a bias is bound to arise whenever ex ante predictions are related to the decisions whether to implement projects. Using a database of projects we present examples indicating that the selection bias may be substantial. The examples also indicate that benefit-cost ratios remains a useful selection criterion even when cost and benefits are highly uncertain, gainsaying the argument that such uncertainties render cost-benefit analyses useless. |
| Keywords: | Cost overruns; Forecast accuracy; Cost-benefit analysis; Appraisal; Selection bias; Winner’s curse |
| JEL: | R40 R42 |
| Date: | 2013–06–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2013_006&r=tre |
| By: | Åslund, Olof (IFAU, Uppsala University, Uppsala Center for Labor Studies); Engdahl, Mattias (Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We study the labor market impact of opening borders to low-wage countries. The analysis exploits time and regional variation provided by the 2004 EU enlargement in combination with transport links to Sweden from the new member states. The results suggest an adverse impact on earnings of present workers in the order of 1 percent in areas close to pre-existing ferry lines. The effects are present in most segments of the labor market but tend to be greater in groups with weaker positions. The impact is also clearer in industries which have received more workers from the new member states, and for which across-the-border work is likely to be more common. There is no robust evidence on an impact on employment or wages. At least part of the effects is likely due to channels other than the ones typically considered in the literature. |
| Keywords: | migration policy; immigration; labor market outcomes |
| JEL: | J16 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2013–04–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2013_009&r=tre |
| By: | Jeffrey C. Brinkman |
| Abstract: | Congestion pricing has long been held up by economists as a panacea for the problems associated with ever increasing traffic congestion in urban areas. In addition, the concept has gained traction as a viable solution among planners, policymakers, and the general public. While congestion costs in urban areas are significant and clearly represent a negative externality, economists also recognize the advantages of density in the form of positive agglomeration externalities. The long-run equilibrium outcomes in economies with multiple correlated, but offsetting, externalities have yet to be fully explored in the literature. To this end, I develop a spatial equilibrium model of urban structure that includes both congestion costs and agglomeration externalities. I then estimate the structural parameters of the model by using a computational solution algorithm and match the spatial distribution of employment, population, land use, land rents, and commute times in the data. Policy simulations based on the estimates suggest that naive optimal congestion pricing can lead to net negative economic outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Externalities (Economics) ; Urban economics |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:13-25&r=tre |
| By: | Cantos Sánchez Pedro (UNIVERSITY OF VALENCIA INSTITUTO VALENCIANO DE INVESTIGACIONES ECONÓMICAS (Ivie)); Serrano Martínez Lorenzo (UNIVERSITY OF VALENCIA INSTITUTO VALENCIANO DE INVESTIGACIONES ECONÓMICAS (Ivie)); Pastor Monsálvez José Manuel (UNIVERSITY OF VALENCIA INSTITUTO VALENCIANO DE INVESTIGACIONES ECONÓMICAS (Ivie)) |
| Abstract: | A vast amount of literature is devoted to analyzing the effects of deregulating and restructuring measures in the European railway sector and the results are not totally unambiguous. The contribution of this paper to the existing literature is twofold. Firstly, we estimate efficiency levels derived from two alternative approaches: a non-parametric DEA analysis and a parametric stochastic frontier production. Using two different approaches allows us to test if the heterogeneous results obtained in the literature are due to the different approaches used to measure efficiency. Secondly, we update the sample introducing a data panel with information on 23 national rail systems, and covering data from 2001 to 2008. It is fundamental to use extended and updated data covering the more recent period and more countries, given that most deregulation measures have been implemented in the last few years. |
| Keywords: | Efficiency, railways, regulation. |
| JEL: | D24 L92 L51 |
| Date: | 2012–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fbb:wpaper:2012124&r=tre |