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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Liliana Harding; Ciprian Panzaru |
| Abstract: | This study explores how refugees' destination preferences evolve during transit, with a focus on Central and Eastern Europe, particularly Romania. Using a mixed-methods approach, we analyse data from the International Organization for Migration's (IOM) Flow Monitoring Surveys and complement it with qualitative insights from focus group discussions with refugees. The quantitative analysis reveals that refugees' preferences for destination countries often change during transit, influenced by factors such as safety concerns, asylum conditions, education, and the presence of relatives at the destination. Our results support the application of bounded rationality and human capital theory, showing that while economic opportunities are important, safety becomes the dominant concern during transit. The qualitative analysis adds depth to these findings, highlighting the role of political instability, social networks, and economic hardships as initial migration drivers. Additionally, the study reveals how refugees reassess their destination choices based on their experiences in transit countries, with Romania emerging as a viable settlement destination due to its relative stability and access to asylum procedures. This research contributes to migration studies by challenging the traditional view of transit countries and offering new insights into the fluid nature of refugee decision-making. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.08350 |
| By: | Vladimir Kozlov (Leibniz-Institute for East and Southeast European Studies (IOS)); Ekaterina Sokolova (Eurasian Technological University Kazakhstan); Olga Veselovskaya (Eurasian Technological University Kazakhstan); Daria Saitova (Eurasian Technological University Kazakhstan.) |
| Abstract: | The paper is devoted to the fertility intentions of the migrants from Russia belonging to the recent wave of so called ‘Exodus’ caused by Russia’s invasion in Ukraine in 2022 and its social impact on Russian society. The authors use the disruption hypothesis and predict the drop in the fertility intentions of new-wave Russian migrants in comparison with the old- wave Russian migrants and stayers, matching and controlling for their socio-economic status. Although the new-wave migrants are in the active reproductive age, partnered and in many cases childless, the authors find a strong intention to the fertility postponement and even cancellation among them. The research is based on two on-line surveys organized in April – October 2023 via online social media and by the snowball method. The first survey provided authors with empirical data on old-wave and new-wave migrants, the second one – on stayers, who have close socio-economic characteristics to the migrants. As a result not only the lower birth intentions of the new-wave migrants was observed, but the positive effect on fertility intentions of the subjective income and willingness to stay in the host country. Especially it is obvious for the countries beyond the EU (mainly for post-Soviet and the Balkan ones). On the other hand for the countries of EU (welfare states) the fertility intentions are the highest |
| Keywords: | Fertility intensions, fertility among migrants, disruption, forced migration, Russian migrants |
| JEL: | D10 J13 J15 J18 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ost:wpaper:403 |
| By: | Thomas Dohmen (Bonn University, University of Maastricht and IZA); Melanie Khamis (Wesleyan University and IZA); Hartmut Lehmann (Leibniz Institute for East and Southeast European Studies, University of Regensburg, University of Bologna and IZA); Norberto Pignatti (ISET, HCEO and IZA) |
| Abstract: | Using data from the four waves of the Ukrainian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey – ULMS (2003, 2004, 2007 and 2012), we analyze whether workers with a higher willingness to take risks are more likely to select into informal employment contracts. The data permit us to distinguish between five employment states: formal and informal self-employment, formal salaried employment, voluntary informal salaried employment, and involuntary informal salaried employment. The empirical evidence reveals risk attitudes as a strong causal determinant of the incidence of all types of informal employment but involuntary informal salaried employment. We also provide evidence that our results are not driven by reverse causality: risk attitudes impact on the choice of employment state whilst this latter does not influence risk attitudes. Linking risk attitudes with selection into employment states, we also can establish that along the formal-informal divide the Ukrainian labor market is predominantly segmented for salaried workers whilst it is integrated for the self-employed. |
| Keywords: | Risk attitudes, informal employment, labor market segmentation, Ukraine |
| JEL: | D91 J42 J46 P23 |
| Date: | 2023–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ost:wpaper:401 |
| By: | Azizbek Tokhirov (CERGE-EI, a joint workplace of Charles University and the Economics Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic; GEOMIGRACE, Geographic Migration Centre, Department of Social Geography and Regional Development, Faculty of Science, Charles University) |
| Abstract: | I investigate the consequences of income fluctuations caused by commodity price changes on happiness levels in regions specialising in export agriculture. Using a difference-in- differences framework, I compare subjective well-being patterns of households living in cotton and non-cotton geographical areas of Tajikistan before and after the 2010/11 cotton price increase. The results indicate that exposure to income fluctuations, even to a positive one, is associated with a notable decrease in the reported levels of financial and overall life satisfaction. The well-being changes are mainly observed between households engaged in agricultural employment, the number of which became larger only in cotton regions in response to the shock. The results of triple difference-in-differences estimations reveal that remittances mediate the negative effects of export price fluctuations but only on financial satisfaction, suggesting that a mere compensation of income losses does not fully restore subjective well-being. |
| Keywords: | subjective well-being, export prices, household income, remittances |
| JEL: | I31 Q02 |
| Date: | 2023–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ost:wpaper:400 |
| By: | Mirko Ðukic, Iva Krsmanovic, Miodrag Petkovic; Mirko Ðukic (National Bank of Serbia); Iva Krsmanovic (National Bank of Serbia); Miodrag Petkovic (National Bank of Serbia) |
| Abstract: | The paper presents the methodology which the National Bank of Serbia uses to nowcast inflation in real time, based on prices from the web, downloaded automatically using web scraping. A specific feature of the method used by the National Bank of Serbia is that it is based not only on prices for online shopping, but on every relevant data on the prices, including those displayed on the web merely informatively. The intention of the NBS was to cover as many items in the CPI as possible (around 90% at the time of writing this paper), in an endeavour to acquire a more reliable nowcast of the inflation central tendency. In the first year of applying this method, nowcasting performance has been encouraging – on average, inflation nowcasts were at the level of the official figures (nowcasts are not biased), the mean forecasting absolute error was 0.20 pp, and the median was 0.13 pp, which is not significant given that the observed period was characterized by relatively high and volatile inflation. |
| Keywords: | inflation forecasting, web prices, web scraping, big data |
| JEL: | C53 E17 E58 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsb:bilten:16 |
| By: | Jerry Jiang; Jacob P. Weber |
| Abstract: | We provide evidence that financial distress induces firms to sell their technology to foreign competitors. To do so, we construct a novel, spatial panel dataset by individually researching and locating U.S. firms who signed Technology Transfer Agreements (TTAs) with the Soviet Union during the 1920s and 1930s in various U.S. counties. By relating the number of TTAs signed in each county to the number of bank failures, we establish a significant, positive relationship between financial distress and the number of firms signing TTAs with the Soviet Union. Our findings suggest that banking panics may create opportunities for foreign countries to acquire affected firms’ technology. |
| Keywords: | Banking panic; technology assistance; know-how diffusion; industrialization; industrial policy |
| JEL: | G21 N6 O33 |
| Date: | 2024–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:99078 |
| By: | Davit Gondauri; Ekaterine Mikautadze |
| Abstract: | The research and development (R&D) phase is essential for fostering innovation and aligns with long-term strategies in both public and private sectors. This study addresses two primary research questions: (1) assessing the relationship between R&D investments and GDP through regression analysis, and (2) estimating the economic value added (EVA) that Georgia must generate to progress from a BB to a BBB credit rating. Using World Bank data from 2014-2022, this analysis found that increasing R&D, with an emphasis on AI, by 30-35% has a measurable impact on GDP. Regression results reveal a coefficient of 7.02%, indicating a 10% increase in R&D leads to a 0.70% GDP rise, with an 81.1% determination coefficient and a strong 90.1% correlation. Georgia's EVA model was calculated to determine the additional value needed for a BBB rating, comparing indicators from Greece, Hungary, India, and Kazakhstan as benchmarks. Key economic indicators considered were nominal GDP, GDP per capita, real GDP growth, and fiscal indicators (government balance/GDP, debt/GDP). The EVA model projects that to achieve a BBB rating within nine years, Georgia requires $61.7 billion in investments. Utilizing EVA and comprehensive economic indicators will support informed decision-making and enhance the analysis of Georgia's economic trajectory. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2411.07817 |
| By: | Bianka Biró (Government Debt Management Agency Pte. Ltd.); András Bebes (Government Debt Management Agency Pte. Ltd.); Richárd Farkas (Government Debt Management Agency Pte. Ltd.) |
| Abstract: | Retail financing was part of the Hungarian debt management framework even before the millennium but it only gained momentum after 2012. As FX debt reduction became a strategic goal of the economic policy after the Great Financial Crisis such as the financial inclusion of households, widening the retail investor base and boosting the sales of retail debt securities with competitive yields and higher publicity was an obvious choice. Currently, more than 20% of the Hungarian public debt is in household ownership, indicating the need for careful monitoring of retail debt and also different challenges as experienced in the previous years when, while combatting their impacts on the wholesale market and financing costs, the high inflation and interest rates rearranged the retail debt as well. This paper aims to present the evolution of the Hungarian retail debt programme, its importance in public debt financing and how the high inflation and interest rate environment affected the behavior of retail investors. Also, the paper assesses a what-if analysis that was conducted to estimate the real cost effect of the retail debt programme as it is often considered an expensive form of funding. |
| Keywords: | Public Debt, Retail Debt Programme, Household Assets, Inflation, AR model |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:iefpro:14716449 |
| By: | Jelena Galijaš (National Bank of Serbia) |
| Abstract: | Using the simulation-based approach, this paper aims to investigate the influence of operational problems which occur at two most important prticipants on the system as a whole as well as on the other participants of the payment system of the National Bank of Serbia. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper which examines, by use of simulations, the consequences of operational problems ocurring at the participants of the payment system of the National Bank of Serbia. Two scenarios were examined. In the first scenario, the most important participant is facing operational problems, while in the second scenario operational problems at two most important participants were supposed. Restrictively designed scenarios show that operational problems at the most important participants can seriously affect other participants' ability to settle their payments. In addition, in order to capture possible behavioral reactions by other participants, we investigate whether the application of the stop-sending rule can reduce the magnitude of contagion. We find that the application of this rule can substantially reduce the effects of the operational problems. However, the rule also reduces the number of transactions in the system as well as the total turnover. At the end, we determined the probabilty of defaults for each account used in our analysis. |
| Keywords: | financial reports, regulatory reports, financial soundness indicators, S-scor? model, stress testing |
| JEL: | G01 G17 G21 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsb:bilten:14 |
| By: | Aleksa Smiljanic (National Bank of Serbia) |
| Abstract: | The paper looks into the impact of the concentration of residents and non-residents’ FX supply and demand on the total amount of FX supply and demand of these banking clients. Our intention was to identify any trends and correlations with other market indicators in the observed ten-year period. For the purpose of studying the concentration of FX supply and demand, we used the Herfindahl-Hirschman index which has been proven to be a statistically significant regressor when explaining movements in net FX demand by residents and non-residents. The results showed the presence of a multi-year positive trend of decrease in the concentration of FX supply, i.e. diversification of FX sources, driven by dynamic growth in the number of residents supplying FX. On the other hand, there are multiple indicators suggesting that our FX market is still characterised by relatively low liquidity. However, during the period of structural appreciation pressures, namely in 2017, there was a noticeable gradual increase in the FX supply capacity to “absorb” FX demand on days when demand was more concentrated, which reflects the increase in the number of residents supplying FX and the diversification of FX sources. |
| Keywords: | concentration of FX supply and demand, Herfindahl-Hirschman index, diversification of FX sources |
| JEL: | C20 F31 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsb:bilten:18 |
| By: | Kristina Trajkovic (National Bank of Serbia) |
| Abstract: | Prevention of money laundering and other abuses in the digital assets sector is a major step in the preservation of financial system stability. Non-alignment of regulatory regimes in an environment of rapid market development creates a potential for abuse and illicit activities. Monitoring the market requires systematic analysis in order to define clear guidelines for mitigating identified risks. Regular implementation of risk assessment and the regulator’s supervisory function facilitate the identification of the riskiness of the entire digital assets sector. In addition to an overview of regulations and standards governing the prevention of money laundering, the paper looks into the risks to which the digital assets sector is exposed, including the conduct of supervision and, in this sense, implementation of the risk-based approach. |
| Keywords: | regulation, digital assets, virtual currency, supervision, money laundering, abuse |
| JEL: | E30 K20 K23 G18 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsb:bilten:17 |
| By: | Sonja Aleksic, Nikola Škondric; Sonja Aleksic (National Bank of Serbia); Nikola Škondric (National Bank of Serbia) |
| Abstract: | The technology balance of payments represents a statistical overview of international market transactions between residents and non-residents, resulting from technology transfers realised through intangible assets (patents, licenses, knowhow, etc.) and the provision of services with a dominant technological component (research and development, technical assistance, engineering services, etc.). It is based on balance of payments and international trade in services statistics, in accordance with the international statistical standards. In this paper, the authors developed and examined the technology balance of payments of the Republic of Serbia, in order to determine the basic trends of technology trade with foreign countries and observe the analytical value of the technology balance of payments as an indicator of international technology trade. |
| Keywords: | inflation technology balance of payments, technology transfer, balance of payments, services account |
| JEL: | F14 O33 L84 L86 |
| Date: | 2023–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsb:bilten:15 |