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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Natalya Naumenko (George Mason University) |
| Abstract: | Using recently discovered archival data, this article studies the changes in the Soviet population and the urbanization patterns after the 1933 famine. It documents that, although most of the direct victims lived in the rural areas, the famine is associated with a persistent negative change in the urban population. In fact, the rural population gradually recovered while urban settlements in more affected areas became permanently smaller. The paper shows that these changes were not planned in the First Five-Year Plan (1928--1933), but that subsequent plans may have incorporated and exacerbated the differences in urbanization that occurred during the years of rural crisis. The paper argues that the shortage of labor during the crucial years of the rapid industrialization hindered the development of cities in areas stricken by the famine. Thus, the timing of the shock to population appears to be important. While established urban networks tend to recover from large temporary negative shocks, the lack of people during construction and rapid growth might have a permanent negative impact. |
| Keywords: | Russia, Famine consequences, Multiple equilibria |
| JEL: | N34 O18 P25 R12 R13 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0270 |
| By: | Beri, Parfait Bihkongnyuy; Mhonyera, Gabriel; Ho, Sin Yu |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian war on FDI in central and eastern European countries (CEECs) from 2020Q1 to 2022Q2. Using the panel quantile regression, it finds that COVID-19 and the conflict had a detrimental impact on the largest FDI recipient countries but not on those in the lower quantiles. Therefore, CEECs should encourage FDI inflows from several sources to reduce vulnerability to shocks and the consequences they bring, diversify investments, and conduct a thorough analysis to identify sectors most affected, and tailor policies to address the sustainable inflow of FDI from those sectors. |
| Keywords: | FDI, COVID-19, CEECs, Russia, Ukraine, quantile regression |
| JEL: | F1 F14 F2 F21 F23 |
| Date: | 2024–10–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:122553 |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh H (World Bank); Deininger, Klaus (World Bank); Nguyen, Cuong Viet (National Economics University Vietnam) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of a large-scale poverty alleviation program targeted at 62 poorest districts in Vietnam, analyzing multiple datasets spanning the past 20 years with a regression discontinuity design with district fixed effects. While we do not find significant program effects on household welfare (as measured by per capita income and poverty) and local economic development (as measured by nighttime light intensity and establishment of new firms), we find that the program facilitates a shift from farm to nonfarm employment and significantly increases the share of nonfarm income for rural households. One possible explanation for the positive effects on nonfarm employment is the improved access to credit that the program provides to participating households. We also find that the program increases household access to electricity, public transfer, educational subsidies for students residing in the program districts, and healthcare utilization, possibly through improving availability of commune healthcare centers. |
| Keywords: | poverty, targeting, household surveys, Vietnam |
| JEL: | C15 D31 I31 O10 O57 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17445 |
| By: | Peter Toth (National Bank of Slovakia); Matej Vitalos (Supreme Audit Office of the Slovak Republic) |
| Abstract: | We study the returns to language skills of immigrants using the European Adult Education Survey (2016). We estimate a standard income equation augmented by self-reported proficiency levels in the host country's language and in English. Contrary to earlier literature, we find that the inclusion of English skills of immigrants increases the estimated returns to proficiency in the local language. Next, considering heterogeneous effects across occupations, we find significantly positive returns to language proficiency only for medium-skilled occupations. Among those, blue-collar jobs reward fluency in both the local language and English. Whereas in white-collar jobs, only the knowledge of English yields significantly higher income. These estimates are consistent with occupational sorting of immigrants and suggest that there are complementarities between proficiency in languages and job skills for some occupations. Following earlier literature, we also corrected the potential endogeneity bias in host-country language skills using instrumental variable methods. Our findings could be relevant for immigration policies in Europe. |
| JEL: | J15 J31 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svk:wpaper:1114 |
| By: | Jelena Momcilovic and Mirjana Miletic; Jelena Momcilovic (National Bank of Serbia); Mirjana Miletic (National Bank of Serbia) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we showed how labour market factors are included in the macroeconomic model which the National Bank of Serbia uses for the medium-term inflation projection, thus enabling an insight into labour market trends, as well as an analysis of the link with other macroeconomic indicators, notably their effect on inflation. The estimates obtained by applying the Kalman filter indicate that NAIRU is still below the unemployment rate, suggesting a positive unemployment gap and showing that the labour market in Serbia is not exerting any major pressures on inflation. The paper also presents the results of testing the relevance of the hysteresis effect in the unemployment rate for Serbia. The hysteresis effect was confirmed by applying the unit root test and estimating the statistical significance of the stochastic trend in the NAIRU series. |
| Keywords: | labour market, inflation, NAIRU, monetary policy |
| JEL: | F30 G15 G20 G30 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsb:bilten:25 |
| By: | RICCI Mattia (European Commission - JRC); PEREZ DOMINGUEZ Ignacio (European Commission - JRC); HRISTOV Jordan (European Commission - JRC); VANDYCK Toon (European Commission - JRC); VAN HOUTVEN Stijn (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | Although agriculture is an important source of greenhouse gas emissions, the sector remains out of scope for greenhouse gas (GHG) pricing policies. To align the future food system with the transition to net zero emissions, two key questions arise: To what extent can tax policies help achieving this transition in a fair and effective way? And, would it be preferable to levy a GHG tax on the production or the consumption side? We employ an EU agro-economic model to compare production and consumption-side GHG taxes and to quantify their environmental impact. We find that supply-side pricing in agriculture displays leakage rates of over 40% and leaves EU producers in a situation of competitive disadvantage; on the other hand, demand-side measures level the playing field in the Single Market and generate positive leakage as they boost the export of (greener) EU producers. Focussing on four countries – Spain, France, Romania and Poland – we therefore consider a real-world reform based on adjusting Value-Added Taxes to reflect climate change externalities. Using microsimulation techniques and household-level data we show that - while this reform can generate reductions in emissions - is regressive without complementary measures. Feebate and equal-per-capita revenue recycling address equity concerns and produce welfare gains for the majority of the population, while the top 20-30% of meat consumers experiences welfare losses. Overall, findings suggest that price-based measures can help align agriculture with climate goals but trade and equity aspects should be reflected in policy design. |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:taxref:202410 |
| By: | Miroslav Zdravkovic (National Bank of Serbia) |
| Abstract: | The paper examines Serbia’s absolute and relative indicators relating to FDI flows and goods exports. Serbia has come a long way from politically and economically isolated to an open country, comparable with other countries of similar size and development level, as confirmed by the calculated relative indicators. Based on the past tendencies, in the future we can also expect Serbia’s indicators to be above-average in case of direct investments inflow and goods exports relative to global indicators. |
| Keywords: | FDIs, goods exports, global indicators, globalisation |
| JEL: | F40 F41 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsb:bilten:23 |
| By: | Mirko Djukic (National Bank of Serbia) |
| Abstract: | The frequency of certain topics in newspaper articles can be a good indicator of some economic developments. The application of topic modelling in the Serbian language, using the LDA model, is hampered by the fact that Serbian is a highly inflectional language, where words have a large number of forms which the model recognises as words with a different meaning. In this paper, we tried to turn that aggravating circumstance into an advantage by reducing only the economic words to their base form. Thus, we attributed to them a greater relevance than to non-economic words, which remained in a large number of forms with a lower frequency of occurrence. As the topics classified in this manner were mostly based on economic expressions, it was expected that they would have a greater applicability in further economic analyses. |
| Keywords: | textual analysis, topic modelling, Latent Dirichlet Allocation, LASSO model |
| JEL: | C13 C55 E31 E37 E52 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsb:bilten:21 |
| By: | Goran Luburić (Zagreb School of Business, Croatia Author-2-Name: Tanja Grmuša Author-2-Workplace-Name: Zagreb School of Business, Croatia Author-3-Name: Dijana Vuković Author-3-Workplace-Name: Business economics, Integrated marketing Communication University North, Croatia Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:) |
| Abstract: | " Objective - Managing organizations is a complex set of activities requiring various skills and knowledge. Changes in the working environment conditioned by the development of new technologies accelerated digitization, focus on profit and sustainability, the need for continuous networking, and generational differences are just some of the factors that strongly influence the perception of work and responsibility towards oneself and others. Influenced the change of the managerial and communication paradigm in which control (of work, productivity, information) is no longer the only goal but the aspiration to guide the individual in achieving his own goals and finding a balance. Recently, more and more people are talking about the importance of possessing soft skills in managers, which are important for the working environment and organizational climate. People are the greatest asset of any organization, and their loyalty to the organization depends on their identification with the values and the role they play in the team. Communication about roles and expectations is an often neglected factor that strongly affects the quality of interpersonal relationships. Methodology/Technique - Managers play a key role in managing human resources, training them in communication skills has never been more important. The aim of the paper is to examine the self-perception of soft skills in a convenient sample of Croatian managers to understand their awareness of the possibilities of influencing human resources management. A quantitative approach was used to investigate the self-perception of the competencies of Croatian managers through a survey of a purposive sample of 358 Croatian managers. Finding - The survey included questions about one's perception of one's own soft skills, including communication skills, emotional intelligence, teamwork, and the ability to resolve conflicts. The research results showed that Croatian managers highly value soft skills, especially in the areas of communication and teamwork. However, certain weaknesses, such as conflict resolution and emotional intelligence, were also identified. Novelty - The research results indicate a positive correlation between leadership motivation and effective cooperation. Investing in the development of soft skills can significantly contribute to improving the efficiency and success of Croatian companies. Type of Paper - Empirical" |
| Keywords: | Soft Skills, Human Resources Management, Competences, Communication, Managers. |
| JEL: | M2 M12 M14 M21 A31 |
| Date: | 2024–09–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gtr:gatrjs:gjbssr654 |
| By: | Iva Glišic (National Bank of Serbia) |
| Abstract: | The paper elaborates on machine and deep learning methods, as well as mixed data sampling regression models, used for GDP nowcasting. The aim is to select an adequate model that shows better performance on the data used. The paper provides an answer to the question of whether the use of deep learning methods can improve GDP nowcasting compared to traditional econometric methods, as well as whether the use of specific high-frequency indicators improves the quality of the models used. The paper examines the selection of adequate indicators – both official and those from alternative sources, presents the framework of mixed data sampling regression models and deep learning models used for nowcasting, and gives an assessment of two such models on the example of Serbian GDP. Serbia’s GDP was modelled for the period Q1 2016 – Q2 2023 and the end of the observed period (six quarters) was used for the forecast. Finally, two assessed models were compared – the mixed data sampling regression model and the LSTM neural network. A special focus is placed on ways to improve both models. The LSTM recurrent neural network model had a smaller forecast error, with the use of a combination of official and alternative (high-frequency) indicators, but the mixed data sampling regression model also proved to be a good tool for decision-makers, since its structure allows insight into the ongoing movements impacting GDP dynamics. The use of alternative indicators in nowcasting improved the projections through both presented models. |
| Keywords: | GDP, nowcasting, MIDAS, neural networks, high-frequency indicators |
| JEL: | C32 C45 C53 |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsb:bilten:22 |
| By: | Mirjana Miletic, Danilo Cerovic and Aleksandar Tomin; Mirjana Miletic (National Bank of Serbia); Danilo Cerovic (National Bank of Serbia); Aleksandar Tomin (National Bank of Serbia) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to examine the extent to which global factors – supply chain disruptions and rising oil prices – affect inflation in Serbia and other European countries, this being particularly important in the context of the ongoing episode of global inflation growth, which is largely a consequence of the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, but also of the energy crisis and the conflict in Ukraine. The analysis was carried out using the panel method, whereby an estimation was made for 31 European countries considered together and separately for European advanced and emerging economies. The analysis was carried out for the period from Q1 2006 to Q2 2023 using the panel ARDL model and estimates were obtained using the PMG and DFE methods, as well as the asymmetric ARDL model, where the inflationary impact of the rise and fall in global energy prices and of the tightening and easing of supply bottlenecks was tested separately. The obtained results suggest that global supply chain disruptions have a statistically significant effect on consumer and producer prices in the long term, and global oil prices in both the short and long term (controlled for the influence of domestic factors). The link between inflation and supply bottlenecks has been confirmed for both advanced and emerging economies, as well as by various disruption indicators (the European Commission’s Business Climate Indicator, measuring the level of disruption specific to a country, and the Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index, gauging the intensity of global pressures), which indicates the robustness of the obtained estimates. When the asymmetric ARDL model is applied, a higher coefficient is obtained for the indicator of global supply chain disruptions (measured by GSCPI) when a negative shock occurs (their loosening) than in the case of a positive shock (tightening), which is a consequence of the significant drop in this indicator in the last three quarters of the period analysed. This suggests that the obtained result is not robust in relation to the period analysed, which is why, before drawing final conclusions regarding this part of the analysis, the model should be re-evaluated once data for a few more quarters become available. |
| Keywords: | inflation, global supply chain disruptions, energy, panel |
| JEL: | C32 C33 E43 |
| Date: | 2023–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nsb:bilten:19 |