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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Simola, Heli |
| Abstract: | In addition to increased uncertainty related to Russian statistics since the invasion of Ukraine, some observers have raised doubts about the quality of Russian statistics. Applying simple analytical tools to detecting irregularities in Russian economic data that could implicate data manipulation, our analysis reveals irregularities and confirms the increased uncertainty related to Russia's post-invasion statistical data. We find, however, no compelling evidence of extensive systematic data manipulation. Therefore, it would be risky to assume that the Russian statistics deliberately paint an overly rosy picture of economic conditions. |
| Keywords: | Russia, economy, statistics |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:305272 |
| By: | António Afonso; José Alves; Najat Bazah |
| Abstract: | We examine the relationship between public sector efficiency and government spending, to assess public resource management across the 27 European Union countries. Specifically, we analyze the growth of public expenditure in relation to outcomes across various public sector performance (PSP) indicators. We compute government spending efficiency using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to subsequently assess the relationship between efficiency and the growth rate of public expenditure. Our findings suggest that higher efficiency can be achieved without proportionally increasing public spending, both in total expenditure and in specific areas such as social protection, economic affairs, education, healthcare, and public services. Indeed, with overall output efficiency scores between 0.77 and 0.87, with the same level of inputs, output could increase around 13%-23%. Additionally, public spending tends to rise during recessions, while it decreases with higher levels of human capital and redistribution indicators. Finally, more efficient countries tend to coalesce around Austria, Croatia, Denmark, France, Greece, Hungary, Poland, and Sweden. |
| Keywords: | Public Sector Performance Indicators; Efficiency; Public expenditure; Functions of the Government; Data Envelopment Analysis |
| JEL: | C33 C61 E62 H11 H50 O47 P43 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp03572024 |
| By: | Nobuaki YAMASHITA (Aoyama Gakuin University, Swinburne University of Technology); Doan Thi Thanh HA (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | The United States (US)–China trade war created new export opportunities for countries connected with the US and China by global value chains. We focus on the case of Vietnamese firms and examine a third-country effect by exploiting the firm-level variations in the extent of connections to the US and China with global value chains. |
| Keywords: | Global value chains (GVCs), Viet Nam, US–China trade war |
| Date: | 2024–09–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2024-24 |
| By: | Al Saqib Majumder, Abdullah |
| Abstract: | Mortality and economic consequences during the 1968 H3N2 Influenza pandemic provide plausible lower bounds for outcomes under the coronavirus (COVID-19). Data for the H3N2 pandemic mortality rate in the United States imply deaths of around 361, 000 when applied to current US population. We evaluate the 1968 H3N2 Influenza pandemic’s economic effects in the United States, using annual economic indicator data for the country from 1961-1990. Using excess mortality rate as a proxy for the severity of the pandemic and Vietnam war mortality rate as a proxy for the effects of war, we find that the pandemic is associated with decline in net exports while Vietnam war is associated with decline in unemployment, private consumption and total factor productivity. Our main findings highlight the different nature of war and pandemic and reveals economic mechanisms of pandemic diffusion. |
| Date: | 2024–11–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:thesis:n2kd9 |
| By: | Douglas Barrios (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Nikita Taniparti (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Ricardo Hausmann (Harvard's Growth Lab); Clement Brenot (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Can Soylu; Roukaya El Houda (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Ekaterina Vashkinskaya; Felicia Belostecinic (Center for International Development at Harvard University); Sophia Henn (Center for International Development at Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | This Growth Diagnostic Report was generated as part of a research engagement between the Growth Lab at Harvard University and the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) between June 2021 and December 2022. The purpose of the engagement was to formulate evidence-based policy options to address critical issues facing the economy of Kazakhstan through innovative frameworks such as growth diagnostics and economic complexity. This report is accompanied by the Economic Complexity Report that applies findings from this report on economy-wide challenges to growth and diversification in order to formulate attractive and feasible opportunities for diversification. Kazakhstan faces multifaceted challenges to sustainable and inclusive growth: macroeconomic uncertainty, an uneven economic playing field, and difficulties in acquiring productive capabilities, agglomerating them locally, and accessing export markets. Underlying Kazakhstan’s transformational growth in the last two decades—during which real GDP per capita multiplied by 2.5x—are two periods that underscore how Kazakhstan’s growth trajectory has been correlated with oil and gas dynamics. The early and mid-2000s characterized by the global commodity supercycle led to an expansion of the economy upwards of 8% annually, with a mild slowdown during the global financial crisis. In 2014, Kazakhstan’s growth slowed with the collapse of commodity prices, and alternative engines of growth have not been strong enough to fend against volatility since. These trends, along with growing uncertainty in the long-run demand of oil and gas, continue to highlight the limitations of relying on natural resources to drive development. As in the experience of other major oil producers, diversification of Kazakhstan’s non-oil economy is a critical pathway to drive a new era of sustainable and inclusive growth and mitigate the impacts of commodity price shocks on the country’s economy. Kazakhstan’s growth trajectory demonstrates that the country has enough oil to suffer symptoms of Dutch disease, but not enough to position it as a reliable engine of growth in the future. Development of non-oil activities has been a policy objective of the government of Kazakhstan for some time, but previous efforts for target sectors have failed to generate sufficient exports and investments to produce alternative engines of growth. This report characterizes the relationship between growth, industrial policy, and the constraints to diversification in Kazakhstan. It utilizes the growth diagnostics framework to understand why efforts to diversify into non-oil tradables has been challenging. The report proposes a growth syndrome to explain the constraints preventing Kazakhstan from achieving productive diversification and sustainable growth. This report is organized in six sections, including a brief introduction. Section 2 provides an overview of the methodological approach to the Growth Diagnostics analysis. Section 3 describes Kazakhstan’s growth trajectory and macroeconomic performance, as well as the motivations behind pursuing a diversification strategy to strengthen the non-oil economy. Section 4 summarizes three features of the country that manifest in a set of economy-wide constraints to growth and diversification. Section 5 analyzes each of the identified constraints in detail, describing their dynamics and breaking down the aspects that appear to be binding. Section 6 concludes by suggesting potential policy guidelines towards alleviation of the identified constraints. |
| Keywords: | Growth Diagnostics, Kazakhstan |
| Date: | 2023–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:206 |
| By: | Drinkwater, Stephen (University of Roehampton); Curds, Matt (Welsh Government); Lloyd-Williams, Ffion (Welsh Government) |
| Abstract: | One of the outcomes of the Brexit referendum result was that EU nationals were required to register on the EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS) if they wanted to remain in the UK after its departure from the EU. In order to be granted settled or pre-settled status, applications needed to have been submitted by 30th June 2021. However, applications continue to have been submitted and processed after this date because of late applications (with a reasonable explanation), transfers from pre-settled to settled status and family members wishing to join relatives in the UK. Published Home Office statistics provide only limited information on applications received since June 2021 separately for the countries in the UK, which is not that helpful for devolved governments. In this paper, we apply a simple method to calculate applications received after June 2021 from the four countries in the UK, focusing particularly on applications for several demographic subgroups from Wales. Our results show increases in applications from Romanian and Bulgarian nationals since June 2021 as well as rises in refused, withdrawn and invalid applications. In addition, applications from Newport have increased from 11% to 18% of the Welsh total. |
| Keywords: | EU Nationals, Settlement Scheme, Brexit, United Kingdom, Wales |
| JEL: | K37 F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17369 |
| By: | Bartos, Vojtech (University of Milan); Bauer, Michal (Charles University, Prague); Cahlíková, Jana (Erasmus University Rotterdam); Chytilová, Julie (Charles University, Prague) |
| Abstract: | Preferences and beliefs about different age groups shape social, political, and economic outcomes. This paper provides strong evidence of "youngism", which refers to systematic bias in social preferences and unfavorable stereotypes against young adults. Among nationally representative samples from the United States and Czechia, we show that participants in both countries are substantially less pro-social in controlled allocation tasks towards young adults relative to other age groups. This preference bias is widespread, similar in size to discrimination against immigrants, and increases with age. Next, we show that young adults are perceived as more immoral, less helpful, less responsible, less hard-working, and enjoying easier lives than other age groups. Finally, we provide suggestive evidence that these unfavorable stereotypes about young adults feed into the preference bias. |
| Keywords: | inter-generational conflict, social preferences, discrimination, stereotypes, youngism |
| JEL: | C93 D64 D91 J14 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17384 |
| By: | Weichselbaumer, Doris (University of Linz); Riess, Hermann (Johannes Kepler University Linz) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we conduct an email correspondence test to examine ethnic discrimination against males with different immigration backgrounds (Serbian, Turkish/Muslim and Syrian/Muslim) in the Austrian rental housing market. In particular, we investigate the effect that immigrant generation has on callback chances. Property owners may perceive more recent immigrants as particularly "other" and fear that they will not be good tenants because, for example, they treat a property in an undesirable manner. We compare landlords' replies to inquiries from immigrants of the first, first and a half, and second generation to those who do not provide respective information about their immigration background. We find substantial levels of ethnic discrimination, which - in the case that no information on immigrant generation is provided - is highest for applicants with a Syrian name, followed by those bearing a Turkish and Serbian name. When applicants specify their place of birth and upbringing, callback rates are highest for second generation immigrants and lowest for first generation immigrants. This suggests advantages for more acculturated applicants. Accommodation seekers with a Syrian name, who may otherwise be perceived as refugees, benefit the most from stating that they were born in Austria. |
| Keywords: | ethnic discrimination, housing market, email correspondence experiment |
| JEL: | C93 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp17403 |