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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Georgios Bampinas (Department of Economics and Regional Development, Panteion University of Social and Political Sciences, Greece); Theodore Panagiotidis (Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, Greece) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the cross-market linkages between six international stock markets and the two major cryptocurrency markets during the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. By employing the local (partial) Gaussian correlation approach, we find that during the Covid-19 pandemic period, both cryptocurrency markets possess limited diversification and safe haven properties, which further diminish during the war. Bootstrap tests for contagion suggest that during the Covid-19 pandemic, the East Asian markets lead the transmission of contagion towards the two cryptocurrency markets. During the Russian invasion, the US stock market emerges as the principal transmitter of contagion. Uncovering the role of pandemic (Infectious Disease EMV Index) and geopolitical risk (GPR index) induced uncertainties, we find that under conditions of high uncertainty and falling prices, the dependency between the US and UK stock markets with both cryptocurrency markets increases considerably. The latter is more profound during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Our findings are useful for investors in their search for understanding the differences in asymmetric connectedness between markets during extreme events. |
| Keywords: | Bitcoin, Ethereum, cryptocurrency, stock market, tail dependence, local Gaussian partial correlation, pandemic uncertainty, geopolitical risk uncertainty |
| JEL: | F31 F37 O16 Q40 G11 G12 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rim:rimwps:24-01&r=tra |
| By: | Tamilina, Larysa |
| Abstract: | This article examines how Ukraine's historical experiences of occupation and territorial fragmentation could lead to the emergence of a democratic political culture within its population. Utilizing individual-level psychological theories, I illustrate that extended periods of occupation cultivated pro-democratic values among Ukrainians, by nurturing sentiments of resistance and autonomy. Additionally, the historical presence of territorial fragmentation contributed to the promotion of diverse perspectives, stimulating social dialogue and encouraging citizens to pursue increased participation in the political sphere. This historical context influenced the shaping of democratic attitudes among Ukrainians. |
| Keywords: | History of occupation, territorial fragmentation, the emergence of democracy, Ukraine. |
| JEL: | B0 N00 P5 |
| Date: | 2024–01–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:119916&r=tra |
| By: | Lorena Skufi (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic & Bank of Albania, Tirana, Albania); Meri Papavangjeli (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic & Bank of Albania, Tirana, Albania); Adam Gersl (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | Motivated by migration phenomena and wage-inflation spillovers, we investigate the relationship between the two and the inflationary remittances built-in pressures. We establish a feedback loop between migration and inflation, and specify a simple dynamic model to identify the pass-through. Our empirical approach focuses on the wage Phillips Curve, price setting under monopolistic competition, and state space model for the natural unemployment rate. Our estimates suggest that overshooting inflation and tight labor market conditions increase wage-inflation sensitivity. A continuous decline of population by 1% leads to 98 basis points (BP) of inflation pressures in the short-run and 23 BP in the long-run. Remittances induce excessive pressures by 18 BP on inflation. Supportive schemes such as an older retirement age and higher labor force participation rate can partially mitigate inflationary. |
| Keywords: | labor market, demographics, inflation, wage, remittances, feedback-loop |
| JEL: | J11 J21 J31 E24 E31 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2024_05&r=tra |
| By: | Gábor Oblath (HUN-REN Centre for Economic and Regional Studies); András Simonovits (HUN-REN Centre for Economic and Regional Studies) |
| Abstract: | In Hungary, initial pensions are indexed to average net wages, reported by official earnings statistics (ES), which does not cover the economy as whole. However, there is alternative statistical source on labour income, the national accounts (NA), intended to cover the total economy. The latter indicate a markedly lower rate of growth in wages than the ES for the period between 2010 and 2020 (4.9 vs. 1.9 percent increase in real gross wages per year). Relying on feasibility tests, we show that the rapid increase reported by the ES cannot, while the milder growth shown by the NA can be reconciled with relevant macroeconomic developments, e.g., changes in productivity and household consumption. We, therefore, claim that the ES overstated the actual increase in wages at the national level during the 2010s, and make our own calculations regarding the path of net wages and implied (hypothetical) initial pensions. The main implications of this exercise are the following: (i) the actual increase in initial benefits (linked to net wages, as reported by the ES) was excessive; (ii) in our estimate, the ratio of average benefits to average net wages did not fall by the extent shown by official statistics (the former is linked to the increase in prices, rather than that of wages). Moreover, (iii) the accumulation of major tensions between cohorts retiring in subsequent years might have been reduced by relying on the more plausible wage statistics reported by the NA, and by taking into account the impact of the dramatically reduced social contribution rate (paid by employers) in calculating initial benefits. |
| Keywords: | Keywords: alternative measures of average wages, pensions, indexation of initial pensions, Hungary |
| JEL: | H55 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:has:discpr:2402&r=tra |
| By: | Gökçe Manavgat (Toros university); Martine Audibert (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | The Covid-19 pandemic has raised concerns about the resilience of health systems. The aim of this study is twofold: i) to measure and compare the resilience of health system efficiency of OECD countries before and during Covid-19 and ii) to determine the healthcare efficiency drivers (e.g., socioeconomic) of health system performance. Using a dataset of 31 OECD countries for 2018 and 2020, we first estimate bias-adjusted efficiency scores, followed by a double bootstrap truncated regression procedure to study the drivers associated with health system efficiency. We find that the health system efficiency overall score decreased among OECD countries during the Covid-19 pandemic compared to before Covid-19. Estonia and Japan retained their full efficiency scoreduring Covid-19. We find a negative association between health system efficiency and unemployment rate, share of health expenditure in GDP, and share of population over 65. Conversely, high vaccination rates contribute positively to health system efficiency during the Covid-19 period. |
| Keywords: | Health system efficiency, Covid-19, DEA Bias-adjusted efficiency scores, Double bootstrap truncated regression |
| Date: | 2024–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04350906&r=tra |
| By: | TIEN MANH VU (Chuo University); HIROYUKI YAMADA (Keio University) |
| Abstract: | We examine whether changes in capital intensity from Vietnamese firms during 1999-2019 influence family formation and gender inequality, using panel data of communes. We use the recorded trajectories of cyclones to create a damage index as an instrumental variable. We find that higher capital intensity is associated with a higher share of single people and a lower share of families with multiple generations living together. Also, women prepared for high capital intensity industries by increasing their educational attainment. However, the results also indicate the sex ratio at birth is more skewed in communes with high capital intensity. |
| Keywords: | Capital intensity, Gender inequality, Family formation, Cyclones, Vietnam |
| JEL: | J16 O15 J12 I24 R23 |
| Date: | 2024–01–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:2024-001&r=tra |
| By: | Maria Siranova (Slovak Academy of Sciences); Menbere Workie Tiruneh (Slovak Academy of Sciences & Webster Vienna Private University); Brian Konig (Slovak Academy of Sciences & University of Economics in Bratislava) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we study role of ‘abnormal FDI‘ as a potential driver of sudden stops during the 2009-2019 period. The unexplained part of country fixed effects in a bilateral gravity regression is used to calculate the abnormal FDI. We then construct three measures of ‘FDI abnormalcy‘ that assess: i) the possible role of an economy as financial centre or tax haven, ii) the contribution of ‘FDI abnormalcy‘ to total FDI position, and iii) the exposure toward territories considered as tax havens or financial centres. Determinants of sudden stops are analysed by the panel probit model. We find that economies labelled as tax havens or financial centres and economies with comparably higher shares of inward ‘abnormal FDI’ were associated with a lower incidence of sudden stops. In contrast, the presence of capital inflows linked to tax haven or financial centre territories may increase the likelihood of a sudden stop event. |
| Keywords: | Sudden stop, FDI, illicit financial flows, tax havens, international financial centres |
| JEL: | F G |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inf:wpaper:2024.02&r=tra |
| By: | Sari Pekkala Kerr; William R. Kerr; Kendall E. Smith |
| Abstract: | We study the long-run career mobility of young immigrants, mostly refugees, from Vietnam who moved to the United States during 1989-1995. This third and final migration wave of young Vietnamese immigrants was sparked by unexpected events that culminated in the Amerasian Homecoming Act. Characteristics of the wave also minimized selection effects regarding who migrated. Small differences in the age at arrival, specifically being 14-17 years old on entry compared to 18-21, resulted in substantial differences in future economic outcomes. Using Census Bureau data, we characterize the different career profiles of young vs. older immigrants, and we quantify explanatory factors like education, language fluency, and persistence from initial employers. |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J44 J61 J71 L26 M13 M51 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32067&r=tra |
| By: | Andrei Munteanu (Department of Economics, University of Quebec in Montreal) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of school choice on academic achievement. I use differences in the number of schools across similar Romanian towns, generating variation in school choice for local students, who compete for seats via test scores. I find that more school choice results in increased sorting of students by admission scores across different schools. Sorting widens achievement gaps between high- and low-admission score students. High-scorers having access to better teachers and peer effects are the primary factors explaining these widening gaps. Lastly, between-school competition via school choice does not increase average achievement levels. |
| Keywords: | education, school choice, sorting, inequality, peers, teachers |
| JEL: | I24 I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:grc:wpaper:24-03&r=tra |