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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Vassil Kirov; Lucia Kováčová; Martin Guzi; Jan Czarzasty; Dragoș Adăscăliței; Martin Kahanec |
| Abstract: | Eleven Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries joined the European Union in 2004, 2007 and 2013. During the COVID-19 pandemic, social partners in CEE have been active in efforts to mitigate the negative consequences of the economic downturn; however, evidence on the scope, scale, and effects of their roles in shaping policy responses to the pandemic remains scant. This paper provides early evidence on the role of social partners in shaping job preservation policies, focusing on three main types: short-time working arrangements; wage subsidies; and flexible work arrangements. It presents the main characteristics of the industrial relations systems and main social partners are five CEE countries: Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. Since the COVID-19 outbreak, social partners in Bulgaria have engaged in an intensive social dialogue leading to national-level agreements and have actively taken part in the formulation of job preservation measures. |
| JEL: | J08 J38 J5 |
| Date: | 2023–12–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:dpaper:66&r=tra |
| By: | Gründler, Klaus; Dräger, Lena; Potrafke, Niklas |
| JEL: | E31 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:vfsc23:277673&r=tra |
| By: | HORIE, Norio; Iwasaki, Ichiro; KUPETS, Olga; MA, Xinxin; MIZOBATA, Satoshi; SATOGAMI, Mihoko |
| Abstract: | This paper conducts a comparative meta-analysis using 3098 estimates reported in 125 research works to explore the wage–experience profile in China and Eastern Europe as they experience a systemic transformation from the planned system to a market economy. The results indicate that the relationship between years of work experience and wage levels in China and Eastern Europe in the transition period was structured consistently with economic theories. It is also revealed that both China and Eastern Europe have experienced a flattening of their wage– experience profiles over time. These findings are statistically robust beyond issues of heterogeneity and publication selection bias in the literature. |
| Keywords: | wage–experience profile, research synthesis, meta-regression analysis, publication selection bias, China, Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | D31 I26 J16 J31 P23 P36 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:rrcwps:103&r=tra |
| By: | Joshua Aizenman; Robert Lindahl; David Stenvall; Gazi Salah Uddin |
| Abstract: | We investigate the event-based geopolitical shocks from the Russian invasion of Ukraine on selected agricultural and energy commodities using daily event-based structural vector autoregression (SVAR). We find that the geopolitical shock affects the markets of wheat (3%) and European natural gas (12%). However, substantial heterogeneity is observed among the food and energy markets. Geopolitical risk affects the European natural gas market more strongly than the US and Asian markets. The regional segment of natural gas markets could explain this. Finally, the dynamics of the impacts of geopolitical news are analyzed in the stock, currency, and bond markets. |
| JEL: | F30 F50 G10 G14 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:31950&r=tra |
| By: | Peez, Anton (Goethe University Frankfurt); Bethke, Felix S. |
| Abstract: | Does US public opinion on international affairs affect political elites’ policy preferences? Most research assumes that political elites do indeed consider public opinion in their decision-making process. However, this key assumption is difficult to test empirically given limited research access to political elites. We examine elite responsiveness to public opinion on sanctioning Russia during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. We fielded a pre-registered experiment within the 2022/23 TRIP survey of US foreign policy practitioners, offering a rare opportunity for a fairly large elite survey experiment (n = 253) with important policy actors who have not been studied in this context. We used current public polling highly supportive of increasing sanctions as an information treatment. Our research design, involving a highly salient real-world issue and treatment, substantially expands on previous work. Exposure to the treatment raises elite support for increasing sanctions from 68.0% to 76.3% (+8.3 percentage points). While sizable, this effect is smaller than those identified elsewhere. We argue that this difference is driven by pre-treatment dynamics, ceiling effects, and issue salience, and is therefore all the more notable. While our results support previous research, they also highlight issues of external validity and the context dependence of elite responsiveness. |
| Date: | 2023–11–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qzrj2&r=tra |
| By: | Paulo Bastos (World Bank); Lisandra Flach (LMU Munich, ifo Institue); Klaus Keller (LMU Munich, Max-Planck Institute for Competition and Innovation) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the impact of product market competition on firms’ automation investments. We use a rich combination of micro-data on Portuguese exporters and exploit a novel source of variation in the degree of competition they face – a tariff liberalization between the European Union and Central and Eastern European countries in the 1990s. We find that firms facing greater competition in export markets tend to reduce investments in automation technologies. These average negative effects are driven by the least productive firms, while the most efficient exporters in industries that are more prone to automation tend to robotize in order to compete. These findings suggest that an increase in the degree of product market competition widens disparities between firms. |
| Keywords: | automation; product market competition; firm heterogeneity; trade liberalization; workers; multi-product firms; |
| JEL: | D22 F16 J23 L25 O33 |
| Date: | 2023–11–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:467&r=tra |
| By: | Nikolova, Milena; Popova, Olga |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the long-term consequences of communism on present-day freedom of expression values in two settings - East Germany and the states linked to the sphere of influence of the former USSR. Exploiting the natural experiment of German separation and later reunification, we show that living under communism has had lasting effects on free speech opinions. While free speech salience has increased for East and West Germans vis-à-vis other government goals, the convergence process has been slow. East Germans are still less likely to consider freedom of speech a key government priority compared to West Germans. Additionally, our analyses of secret police surveillance data from East Germany point to the fact that geographybased measures of community experiences of past political repression do not explain our findings. The same conclusion holds when we look at the setting of the former Soviet Union and we correlate proximity to Stalin's former labor camps in the Soviet Union with present-day freedom of speech values. At the same time, family experiences with political repression in Eastern Europe/the former Soviet Union exert a discernible influence on current values towards freedom of speech, likely due to a lasting impact stemming from such personal encounters. As such, our paper adds a nuanced contribution to the economics of free speech, suggesting that freedom of speech may be a part of informal institutions and slow-changing cultural values. |
| Keywords: | political repression, communism, free speech, German Democratic Republic, Eastern Europe, former Soviet Union, economic history |
| JEL: | D02 D83 N00 P27 P52 |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1355&r=tra |
| By: | Zuzanna Kowalik; Piotr Lewandowski; Tomasz Geodecki; Maciej Grodzicki |
| Abstract: | The offshoring-fuelled growth of the Central and Eastern European business services sector gave rise to shared service centres (SSCs), quasi-autonomous entities providing routine-intensive tasks for the central organisation. The advent of technologies like Intelligent Process Automation, Robotic Process Automation, and Artificial Intelligence jeopardises SSCs’ employment model, necessitating workers’ skills adaptation. The study challenges the deskilling hypothesis and reveals that automation in the Polish SSCs is conducive to upskilling and worker autonomy. Drawing on 31 in-depth interviews, we highlight the negotiated nature of automation processes shaped by interactions between headquarters, SSCs, and their workers. Workers actively participated in automation processes, eliminating the most mundane tasks. This resulted in upskilling, higher job satisfaction and empowerment. Yet, this phenomenon heavily depends upon the fact that automation is triggered by labour shortages, which limit the expansion of SSCs. This situation encourages companies to leverage the specific expertise entrenched in their existing workforce. The study underscores the importance of fostering employee-driven automation and upskilling initiatives for overall job satisfaction and quality. |
| Keywords: | automation, Shared Service Centres, skills, job quality |
| JEL: | J24 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ibt:wpaper:wp082023&r=tra |
| By: | Kit Rickard; Gerard Toal; Kristin M. Bakke; John O'Loughlin |
| Abstract: | Collecting public opinion data is challenging in the shadow of war. And yet accurate public opinion is crucial. Political elites rely on it and often attempt to influence it. Therefore, it is incumbent on researchers to provide independent and reliable wartime polls. However, surveying in wartime presents a distinctive set of challenges. We outline two challenges facing polling in war: under-coverage and response bias. |
| Keywords: | War, Survey, Ukraine |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2023-144&r=tra |
| By: | Isabella Neuweg |
| Abstract: | The paper presents the understanding of and attitudes towards climate change and climate policies in Ukraine, using a survey on a representative sample of more than 1 500 Ukrainians. The survey was carried out between October 2021 and February 2022 and presents the situation before Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine. The survey tests support for three main climate policies in detail: a green infrastructure programme, a carbon tax with cash transfers and a ban on combustion-engine cars. It shows that support for climate policies depends on three key factors: how people perceive the effectiveness of the policies in reducing emissions, how they perceive distributional impacts on lower-income households (inequality concerns), and if they think their household will gain or lose from the policy. The survey also shows that when citizens receive information that specifically addresses these concerns, they exhibit stronger support for the policy. How the policy is designed also matters: Ukrainians widely accept a carbon tax when its revenues finance green investments and/or compensate lower-income households. The paper highlights seven considerations for Ukraine policymakers to design measures that are effective and supported by citizens. Following Russia’s war of aggression and once conditions are right, Ukrainian policymakers can also use the survey results to guide the reform of the environmental tax system- one of the goals in Ukraine’s recovery and reform agenda. The survey in Ukraine that the paper describes was conducted as part of a large-scale OECD international survey of attitudes toward climate policies carried out on over 40 000 respondents in twenty countries. |
| JEL: | D78 H23 Q54 Q58 P48 |
| Date: | 2023–12–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:229-en&r=tra |
| By: | Kateryna Savolchuk (National Bank of Ukraine); Tetiana Yukhymenko (National Bank of Ukraine) |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the influence of central bank credibility in forming inflation expectations, using data obtained from business surveys conducted by the National Bank of Ukraine. We employ a two-stage treatment model to mitigate the potential bias of the endogeneity of firms' answers. The results confirm the vital role of credibility in shaping inflation expectations. Notably, credibility reduces sensitivity to past inflation deviations. Robustness checks, which are based on bootstrapping, reinforce the reliability of the findings. Our study underscores the importance of central bank credibility in anchoring inflation expectations. |
| Keywords: | credibility, inflation expectations, endogeneity, surveys |
| JEL: | C51 E58 E70 |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ukb:wpaper:04/2023&r=tra |
| By: | Nelly Petkova; Krzysztof Michalak; Yuliia Oharenko |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates the progress of fossil-fuel subsidy reform in Ukraine since its launch in 2016 using the OECD “bottom-up”, inventory, approach. It also identifies major subsidy schemes that need significant reform. The report reflects the energy subsidy policies and reforms in Ukraine prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. The analysis covers: budgetary transfers, government revenue foregone (or tax expenditure), induced transfers in the form of cross-subsidies or below market tariffs and transfer of risk to government. The study also covers fossil-fuels subsidies to production and consumption, particularly, for natural gas, coal and electricity generated from fossil fuels while support for energy efficiency and renewables is considered for comparative purposes. This report also briefly discusses the taxation and energy pricing policies in Ukraine that have had direct or indirect impact on the evolution of fossil-fuel subsidies in the country. Detailed estimates of all individual support measures are provided in the Annexes to the report. |
| Keywords: | energy sector, energy sector reform, energy taxation policy, fossil-fuel subsidies |
| JEL: | H23 H53 H61 H71 P18 Q35 Q41 Q48 |
| Date: | 2023–12–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:228-en&r=tra |
| By: | Zhou, Peng (Cardiff Business School); Guo, Dong |
| Abstract: | Facing the sanctions from the West since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia quickly converged to a strong counter-sanction strategy. The US and the EU staggered the strengths of sanctions in turns, with the EU first imposing relatively stronger commercial sanctions first and the US relaying with stronger financial sanctions later. Using US-EU-Russia sanctions as an example, we develop a multilateral, evolutionary game to capture the strategic complementarity between the sanctioners and the sanctionee, as well as the strategic substitutability between the leading sanctioner and the co-sanctioner. In an extended model, the sanction technology is introduced to endogenize how sanctions are designed before deployment. The model is then calibrated to match the summarized stylized facts, to demonstrate the simulated evolutionary paths, and to verify the derived strategic dependence. |
| Keywords: | Sanction; Strategic Dependence; Evolutionary Game Theory |
| Date: | 2023–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2023/28&r=tra |
| By: | Pawel Bukowski; Pawel Chrostek; Filip Novokmet; Marek Skawinski |
| Abstract: | This paper combines micro-level tax data, household surveys and national accounts data to provide consistent series of income distribution in Poland over the 2000-2018 period. We find that inequalities in Poland are one of the largest in Europe. In 2018, the share of pre-tax and pre-transfer income accrued to the top 10% is 37.4%, to the next 40% is 41.1%, and to the bottom 50% is 21.5%. The top 1% earns 13.4% of the total income. The increase in income inequality during this period was largely driven by high business incomes in top income shares. The extent of redistribution in Poland is modest. The tax system is regressive at the top of the income distribution due to lower taxation of business income and the low burden of social contributions. Finally, we show that top income groups are dominated by business owners, males, and big city dwellers, and these groups have been the largest beneficiaries of Poland's strong growth since 2000. Gender inequality has been high and stable in Poland, with a steeply decreasing female share with income rank (e.g. the share of females in top 0.1% group was 18% in 2018). |
| Keywords: | inequality, Poland, growth, redistribution, gender gap |
| Date: | 2023–12–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1966&r=tra |
| By: | Isabella Neuweg (OECD); Nelly Petkova (OECD); Krzysztof Michalak (OECD); Yuliia Oharenko |
| Abstract: | The paper analyses the current system of environmental taxation and environmental expenditure in Ukraine, identifies issues in the way environmental tax policy is currently designed and implemented and highlights main areas where environmental taxation and expenditure could be improved. It uses data on environmental tax revenue and budgets from expenditure reports of the State Treasury Service of Ukraine over the period 2010 - 2020. Where available, preliminary data for 2021 were also included. The paper aims to support the government of Ukraine in reforming environmental taxation and public funding for environmental protection. Ukraine’s Post-War Recovery and Reconstruction Plan outlines ambitious plans for reform, including in the environmental domain. It envisions restructuring the current environmental tax system, expanding it to energy and transport and harmonising it with that of the European Union. It also foresees an analytical study systematising current taxes and payments in line with Eurostat classification standards. This paper can support these efforts. |
| JEL: | H23 H61 H71 Q54 Q58 |
| Date: | 2023–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:envaaa:231-en&r=tra |
| By: | Michał Greszta (Narodowy Bank Polski); Marcin Humanicki (Narodowy Bank Polski); Mariusz Kapuściński (Narodowy Bank Polski); Tomasz Kleszcz (Narodowy Bank Polski); Andrzej Kocięcki (Narodowy Bank Polski); Jacek Kotłowski (Narodowy Bank Polski); Michał Ledóchowski (Narodowy Bank Polski); Michał Łesyk (Narodowy Bank Polski); Tomasz Łyziak (Narodowy Bank Polski); Mateusz Pipień (Narodowy Bank Polski); Piotr Popowski (Narodowy Bank Polski); Ewa Stanisławska (Narodowy Bank Polski); Karol Szafranek (Narodowy Bank Polski); Grzegorz Szafrański (Narodowy Bank Polski); Dorota Ścibisz (Narodowy Bank Polski); Grzegorz Wesołowski (Narodowy Bank Polski); Ewa Wróbel (Narodowy Bank Polski) |
| Abstract: | This report presents the current body of knowledge on the monetary transmission mechanism in Poland. The presented findings confirm the impact of short-term interest rates on a range of macroeconomic variables, indicating in particular that following a monetary policy tightening there is – ceteris paribus – an appreciation of the domestic currency, and, with a lag, a decrease in the volume of credit, economic activity, and inflation. |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:365&r=tra |
| By: | Timo Leidecker; Tim Bulman |
| Abstract: | Raising productivity growth is central to closing the gap with the incomes and well-being enjoyed in many OECD countries. Croatia has internationally competitive firms, and a dynamic economy with many young and potentially productive firms. However, overall performance has been limited by the presence of many less productive firms and more productive firms that often fail to grow. This likely reflects a business environment that weakens competitive pressures and makes investments more costly and risky. Reducing the burdens of lengthy and unpredictable regulatory procedures, resolving legal disputes faster with a more efficient judicial system, and improving public sector integrity, will be key for boosting productivity growth. Developing public equity markets and expanding R&D support would improve access to finance for young and innovative firms. State-owned enterprises play a comparatively large role in Croatia’s economy but tend to underperform financially and in delivering goods and services. Improving their governance, by strengthening the state’s oversight and governance arrangements, can improve outcomes. This Working Paper relates to the 2023 OECD Economic Survey of Croatia. |
| Keywords: | access to finance, insolvency policies, law use, productivity analysis, public sector integrity, research & development policies, rule of law, state-owned enterprises |
| JEL: | D24 D25 D31 D4 G2 K2 K4 L11 |
| Date: | 2023–12–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1783-en&r=tra |
| By: | Tim Bulman |
| Abstract: | Croatia’s labour market has made important progress over the past decade. Employment rates are rising, reducing the gap with OECD countries, and poverty has fallen. While important weaknesses remain, many dimensions of equity and working conditions are similar to OECD countries. Continuing this progress is essential for Croatia’s incomes and well-being to converge with OECD countries, to counter accelerating population ageing and to make the most of emerging opportunities, including from digitalisation and the green economy transition. For employers, filling increasingly advanced skill needs is a growing obstacle. Relatively few of the young and older adults are in work – contributing to weakening skills, lower incomes and higher poverty risks. Addressing these challenges will require dramatically expanding participation in re-skilling and adult education programmes, and raising the workforce’s flexibility, for example by strengthening active labour market policies, improving the housing market’s dynamism and making the most of immigrants’ and returned emigrants’ skills. This Working Paper relates to the 2023 OECD Economic Survey of Croatia. |
| Keywords: | access to housing, active labour market policies, adult, demographics, education and training, pension policies, skills, social protection, wage setting |
| JEL: | H24 H5 I2 I3 J11 J2 J3 J61 J65 R23 R31 |
| Date: | 2023–12–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1784-en&r=tra |
| By: | Trang Thi Pham |
| Abstract: | New developments of existing technologies over time have led to emergent patterns of technology adoption and, accordingly, changing impacts on economy and society. Focusing on the arrival of mobile internet in the early 2010s in developing countries, this paper identifies significant positive effects on provinces' average household income in Viet Nam. The effect sizes are larger for lower-income quintiles and for rural areas, suggesting the more inclusive changing impact of the innovation over the last decade. |
| Keywords: | Household income, Internet, Mobile technologies, Technological change, Developing countries |
| Date: | 2023 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2023-145&r=tra |
| By: | Marek Hlaváč |
| Abstract: | According to official statistics, Slovakia’s GDP per capita at PPP has been declining compared to the EU-27 average since 2016. This unfavorable evolution is influenced by shortcomings in the input data provided to Eurostat – especially in expenditures on housing rentals and in housing stock data. Using the Eurostat-OECD methodology for calculating purchasing power parities, we estimate alternative scenarios that correct these shortcomings. Our results still suggest that Slovakia’s convergence level has been stagnating since 2016. They are less optimistic than those by other Slovak institutions, and are not very sensitive to changes in assumptions about the prices of rentals. |
| JEL: | E01 E31 O47 |
| Date: | 2023–12–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:dpaper:67&r=tra |
| By: | Dalmazzo, Alberto (University of Siena); Leombruni, Roberto (University of Turin); Razzolini, Tiziano (University of Siena) |
| Abstract: | Regulations in host countries often impose heavy limitations on the opportunities of migrant workers. Here, we analyse how (the anticipation of) a change in the legal status of foreign workers may affect their terms of employment. Building on a simple theoretical model, we consider a sample of non-EU immigrants in Italy over the period which led to the accession of Romania and Bulgaria to the European Union in 2007. We find that the expectation of achieving EU citizenship increased Romanians' and Bulgarians' bargaining power over wages and job attributes, relative to other non-EU migrants, and also stimulated business venture. |
| Keywords: | migration, labor market restrictions, EU accession, workplace safety |
| JEL: | J28 J32 J71 |
| Date: | 2023–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp16614&r=tra |