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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Martina Halouskov\'a (Department of Finance, The Faculty of Economics and Administration, Masaryk University); Daniel Sta\v{s}ek (Department of Finance, The Faculty of Economics and Administration, Masaryk University); Mat\'u\v{s} Horv\'ath (Department of Finance, The Faculty of Economics and Administration, Masaryk University) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of event-specific attention indices - based on Google search queries - in predictive price variation models before and during the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. We extend our analyses to the importance of geographical proximity and economic openness to Russia within 51 global equity markets. Our results demonstrate that attention to the conflict is significant at the onset of and during the invasion and helps predict volatility. Finally, we find a positive dependency between attention significance and the geographical distance to Moscow and a negative dependency on the degree of economic openness to Russia. |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2205.05985&r= |
| By: | Aleksandar Vasilev |
| Abstract: | Stochastic shocks to aggregate labor supply elasticity are introduced into a real-business-cycle setup augmented with a detailed government sector. The model is calibrated to Bulgarian data for the period following the introduction of the currency board arrange-ment (1999-2018). The quantitative importance of a stochastic aggregate labor supply elasticity parameter is investigated for the magnitude of the cyclical fluctuations in Bulgaria. The quantitative effect of such a stochasticity increases the variability of hours, and lowers the correlation between hours and wages, and thus is found to be quantitatively important for the labor market aspect of business cycles. |
| Keywords: | Business cycles, stochastic aggregate labor supply elasticity, Bulgaria |
| JEL: | E24 E32 |
| Date: | 2022–03–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2022_08&r= |
| By: | Simola, Heli |
| Abstract: | The EU, US and several other countries have responded with a wide range of new economic sanctions on Russia in response to the military attack on Ukraine. These sanctions include various restrictive measures on trade with Russia. In this brief, we examine the potential short-term effects of trade sanctions on Russian production with an input-output framework. We find that the trade sanctions can have substantial negative effects on Russian production when Russia is unable to find alternative markets for imports and exports. |
| Keywords: | Russia,trade,sanctions,input-output |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitb:42022&r= |
| By: | Mai, Nhat Chi |
| Abstract: | This study provides an overview about the privatization process of the national airlines in Vietnam, representing for a key large SOE which has been privatized. Therefore, it helps to reflect the process of the country in term of the government perspectives in general, through which to bring ideas or suggestion for more efficient policy to favor liberalization. Privatization of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is one pillar of the structural reforms in addition to the deregulation and trade liberalization. As a necessity for development, Vietnam implemented privatization along with the Renovation policy to transfer from a centrally planned market to an open and market-oriented economy as a necessity for development. The privatization process in Vietnam is on-going and has begun in large SOEs. The privatization of Vietnam Airlines is a typical case of a large-scale concern undergoing privatization through equitization. This study is of particular interest for the Vietnam Airlines’ privatization in evaluating the success or failure of the equitization. |
| Date: | 2022–05–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:duwym&r= |
| By: | Bruno Castanho Silva (Cologne Center for Comparative Politics); Jens Wäckerle; Christopher Wratil |
| Abstract: | Western powers have discussed and implemented several policies in response to the full scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. One such possible answer was an immediate embargo on all Russian energy exports to the EU. While seen as a strong measure against Russia's war effort, some EU governments were unenthusiastic, due to potential negative economic impacts on the short run, by pressuring prices for consumers and fueling inflation. Public opinion also seemed divided on the matter. We use a framing survey experiment in Germany (n = 3,251) to test what factors influence support for an immediate embargo against Russian energy. Results indicate that out of seven possible frames tested, the only one that has an effect on embargo support is whether the rest of the German public is in favor or not. Results are in line with contemporary models of public opinion formation and legitimacy, and shed light on the conditions that may help framing other potentially costly issues to garner public support, such as measures to tackle climate change. |
| Keywords: | public opinion; survey experiment; Russian energy embargo; foreign policy; Ukraine war |
| JEL: | D91 |
| Date: | 2022–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ajk:ajkdps:170&r= |
| By: | Florian Bucher; Lucas Scheu; Benedikt Schröpf |
| Abstract: | This study examines the link between economic complexity and environmental quality by exploiting the similar starting points of the former socialist transition countries after the fall of the iron curtain. We refer to the extended theories of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), stating that environmental pollution follows an inverted u-shaped course with respect to economic complexity. Using comprehensive data of 27 countries for the period 1995-2017, our results show that the EKC can be found for countries whose complexity rose over time. Additionally, since the results for production-based and consumption-based CO2 emissions are similar, we can discard emissions offshoring as a major explaining factor. Consequently, our findings suggest that more complex products are the drivers of the EKC. However, as the turning point is associated with high levels of pollution, our estimates imply that complexity may even exacerbate environmental issues in the short and middle run in less developed countries. |
| Keywords: | Economic Complexity, Environmental Kuznets Curve, Former Socialist States preference transmission |
| JEL: | O44 P28 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bav:wpaper:218_bucherscheuschroepf&r= |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh (World Bank); Abanokova, Kseniya (Higher School of Economics, St. Petersburg Branch) |
| Abstract: | Measuring the intergenerational mobility of welfare provides key inputs for policies, but very few studies examine intergenerational mobility of subjective well-being (SWB), particularly in a poorer, transitional country context. We make new contributions by analyzing rich panel SWB data from Russia over the past quarter century, which address various shortcomings with traditional income data. We find that intergenerational SWB mobility—as measured by subjective wealth and life satisfaction—exists. While daughters have less subjective wealth and life satisfaction than sons, daughters have higher transmission of SWB from their mothers. Adding other child and parent characteristics to the multivariate regression models can reduce the estimated impacts of mothers' SWB by up to 40%, but does not change the gender gaps. Our results are robust to different model specifications and sample restrictions. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility, life satisfaction, subjective wealth, gender, panel data, Russia |
| JEL: | D6 I3 J6 O1 |
| Date: | 2022–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15244&r= |
| By: | Myck, Michal (Centre for Economic Analysis, CenEA); Trzciński, Kajetan (Centre for Economic Analysis, CenEA) |
| Abstract: | We examine the revenue and redistributive effects of tax policy reforms in twelve European countries over the decade between the financial crisis and the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, setting them against the implications of a hypothetical system reflecting the extent of fiscal drag resulting from nominal wage increases. We show that the combination of wage growth and progressivity of the tax system determined the fiscal leeway which governments could use to reduce income inequality. Despite significantly faster wage growth in the examined post-communist countries of Central and Eastern Europe, their much lower degree of progressivity implied limited additional scope for fiscal changes. While decisions taken in most of the examined countries in the CEE region led to increases in tax progressivity, their income tax systems continue to be far less redistributive in comparison with such countries as Ireland, the Netherlands, or Portugal. This not only has direct implications for income inequality but also translates into limitations of automatic fiscal drag effects on government revenues, which could offer additional resources, in particular at a time of high inflation. |
| Keywords: | income tax, tax reforms, fiscal drag |
| JEL: | H24 D31 |
| Date: | 2022–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15302&r= |
| By: | Giovanni Andrea Cornia |
| Abstract: | The transition to the market economy and liberal democracy of the former communist countries of Europe represents the most vivid example of how potentially favourable economic and political reforms may lead to massive mortality crises. The transition of these countries was universally greeted as a key step towards world peace and economic progress. The months preceding the beginning of this historic watershed were characterised by widespread hopes for improvements in political freedoms, economic growth, living standards, and life expectancy which, during the prior 20 years had improved more slowly than in capitalist OECD countries, or had deteriorated. Despite these hopes, the years after 1989 were characterised by a severe transformational recession, a fall in output and incomes, the rapid impoverishment of large sections of the population, rising income and assets concentration, widespread social dislocations and an acute mortality crisis. Despite its magnitude and a growing number of studies, the transition mortality crisis has attracted limited political attention by national authorities and international agencies. When it was acknowledged, it was attributed to past shocks or irrelevant factors, retarding in this way the introduction of appropriate policy responses. In a way, the recent European mortality crisis is a telling example of how potentially favourable reforms may lead to large health and social costs. |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2022_04.rdf&r= |
| By: | Dalay, Galip |
| Abstract: | Syria is central to the current shape of Turkey-Russia relations. It offers a model of partnership for both countries in a context where their interests are competitive. However, the Syrian-centric cooperation between Turkey and Russia is also special and is thus unlikely to be replicated elsewhere due to structural constraints and contextual nuances. The limits of the Syrian-style model of cooperation between Ankara and Moscow can be observed in Libya as well as Nagorno-Karabakh. Even though the institutional and elite ownership of Turkey's Western relations has weakened, no similar institutional basis exists in Turkey's relations with Russia. As such, the current Ankara-Moscow axis is to a great extent defined by the personal ties between the countries' leaders and geopolitical imperatives. However, if the current shape of relations endures much longer, these personalised relations will gain structural foundations. A major problem for Turkey in its relations with Russia remains the asymmetry, even if interdependent, in favour of Moscow. Yet, the nature of asymmetry is dynamic and subject to change, as Turkey has engaged in what can be termed dependency reduction on Russia, both geopolitically and structurally (energy-wise). Developments at the broader international level, a new administration in the US, and rising tension between Ukraine and Russia indicate that Turkey would face more constraints and higher costs for its hitherto geopolitical balancing act between the West and Russia. The close relations in recent years between Ankara and Moscow also point to the need for Turkey and the West to redefine the nature of their relations, as the Cold War framework of Turkey-US relations and the accession framework of Turkish-European relations increasingly appear to be ill-suited to the present realities. |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:swprps:52021&r= |
| By: | Hutter, Christian (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany); Weber, Enzo (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany ; Univ. Regensburg) |
| Abstract: | "With the Russian war against Ukraine, global economic conditions changed abruptly. We provide first causal evidence of effects of the energy crisis on Germany as Europe’s most important economy. Combining cost structure data, national accounts and administrative labour market data, we identify effects in a sectoral panel setting. The results show that via the channel of energy intensity, production decreased by about 1 percent with the onset of the war, but turnover increased, mirroring sales from stock. Firms safeguard employment via short-time work with 10 percent additional applications. Vacancy posting was reduced already in anticipation by 8 percent." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | IAB-Open-Access-Publikation |
| JEL: | E23 H56 J63 Q43 |
| Date: | 2022–05–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:202210&r= |
| By: | Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Abanokova, Kseniya |
| Abstract: | Measuring the intergenerational mobility of welfare provides key inputs for policies, but very few studies examine intergenerational mobility of subjective well-being (SWB), particularly in a poorer, transitional country context. We make new contributions by analyzing rich panel SWB data from Russia over the past quarter century, which address various shortcomings with traditional income data. We find that intergenerational SWB mobility-as measured by subjective wealth and life satisfaction-exists, with daughters having higher transmission of SWB from their mothers than sons. Adding other child and parent characteristics to the multivariate regression models can reduce the estimated impacts of mothers' SWB by up to 40% but does not change the gender gaps in the intergenerational transmission. Our results are robust to different model specifications and sample restrictions. |
| Keywords: | intergenerational mobility,life satisfaction,subjective wealth,gender,panel data,Russia |
| JEL: | D6 I3 J6 O1 |
| Date: | 2022 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1088&r= |