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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Horie, Norio; Kumo, Kazuhiro |
| Abstract: | This paper takes up the human resource management studies targeting European transition economies (ETEs) in the context of transition economies and empirically examines the relationship between the existing studies, which discuss the institutional and cultural legacies of their socialist period, and the attributes of the literature. This analytical survey clarifies that the major studies in human resource management in ETEs still keep focus on the old socialist legacies, particularly in traditional industries, and that the socialist institutional legacies are actively and continuously discussed in ETEs to understand the diversity of European HRM, though there is a possibility that the divergence theory based on cultural legacies may become inapplicable in accordance with their deepening integration with the EU economy. |
| Keywords: | European transition economies, human resource management, socialist legacy |
| JEL: | J50 M12 M54 P31 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hitcei:2019-7&r=all |
| By: | Iwasaki, Ichiro; Kumo, Kazuhiro |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to empirically examine the regional determinants of fertility rate in Russia using panel data for the period of 2005–2015. The estimation results of a system GMM dynamic model revealed that economic growth, employment opportunity, favorable local business conditions, educational opportunity, quality of social infrastructure, and housing supply serve to increase the fertility rate in Russian regions, while the presence of a Slavic population, migration inflow, poverty and ecological risks tend to suppress it. Furthermore, we found that combinations of factors that strongly affect the reproductive behavior of Russian women vary greatly among age groups and regions. To mitigate the declining trend of fertility in Russia, it is necessary to implement policies that take generational differences and regional heterogeneity into serious consideration. |
| Keywords: | total fertility rate, age-specific fertility rate, dynamic panel data analysis, Russian regions |
| JEL: | C23 J11 J13 P25 R23 |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hitcei:2019-6&r=all |
| By: | Kateryna Kurylchyk |
| Abstract: | International real estate diversification provides significant benefits which are inevitably associated with considerable risks and costs. This requires a thorough analysis of options in order to take account of substantial uncertainty and foreignness implied by international investment per se, as well as the real estate market risks inherent in foreign countries. These factors are intensified by economic distresses and make real estate investors use more discretion in their operations abroad. A similar situation has been observed in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) after the events of 2008. In the face of downturn, market players have become cautious about investing in this region and shifted their investments away from many once booming markets. In other words, the crisis resulted in an increased perception of risk and a change towards more selective investment strategies in CEE, with international investors unprepared to take high country risks even though property risks may be low. Hence, relatively more importance is attached to country risks vs. property specifics and gains when making investment decisions. Among numerous academic papers on real estate investment risks and decision-making factors in the international context, there are only few undertaken for the CEE countries. This study has been motivated by the perceived shortage of research on real estate markets and investment decision-making factors in CEE, as well as the need for understanding these aspects in order to ensure sound investments in the region. It aims to identify major risks of investing in real estate, with a particular focus on selected CEE countries. The study reviews in the first instance the existing publications on international real estate investment and summarizes common risks and factors affecting relevant decision-making. The complexity of country risk as a composite risk and its components are addressed by creating a country risk framework. Further, real estate investment trends and issues in the CEE markets are discussed, with specific investment risks for the CEE region identified. Finally, the importance of the factors influencing investment decision-making, as perceived by international investors in the region, is studied through a questionnaire survey.Altogether this exploratory research contributes to the understanding of barriers and risks of international real estate investment while assisting investors in improving their perception of opportunities and implications associated with property investments in the CEE region. |
| Keywords: | CEE region; Country Risk; Decision-making; International investment; risk and return trade-off |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_334&r=all |
| By: | Vsevolod Nikolaiev; Oleksii Kucherenko |
| Abstract: | The whole housing stock in Ukraine is practically private. Social housing fund is almost absent. In the 1990s most of the flats in the multi-apartment buildings have been privatized by the tenants free of charge. About 80% of all buildings in the cities have been built up to 1980, are not yet repaired and require urgent modernization with the cost equal to the actual State budget revenue. By the law of 2015 the responsibility for carrying out capital repairs has been transferred to the flat owners who are co-owners of the buildings. Maintenance management is organized only on the level of separate houses (no-associations) and is unprofessional. The tariff for housing services is enormous low because the component of capital repairs traditionally has been excluded. In the worst homes live exactly the poorest families which do not have any means to maintain and repair their houses because one half of all families in the country receive subsidies to pay their utility bills. Taking into account other urgent and costly needs to maintain public infrastructure the State is also unable to accumulate sufficient funds to renovate the housing stock. At the same time there is a difficult question of the justice of additional state assistance to homeowners for repairing their assets at the expense of all taxpayers. Another question is how to operate this private property on the market. Governments of the country that often replace each other are afraid to raise this problem, which requires extraordinary decisions. It becomes obvious that homeowners are mostly inefficient but the idea of re-privatization can cause social rejection. There are no analogues in the history or in other post-Soviet countries, where either the condition of privatized houses was better, or household incomes were higher, or state aid was regular and where, due to the tariff, funds for capital repairs has been always accumulated and used.Unfortunately, in Ukraine there is no tradition of real estate professional management as a scientific branch, university specialization or profession. Our first attempts to find right decisions which will be described in the paper need approbation. Therefore, we want to draw attention of the best European real estate managers and researchers to the resolution of this problem. |
| Keywords: | capital repair; Financing; housing stock; Privatization; Tenants |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_191&r=all |
| By: | Georgieva, Daniela; Popova, Radostina |
| Abstract: | A main objective of the paper is to present the state, current trends and challenges in front of the enterprises in Bulgarian Forest sector, based on the introduction of digital tools and solutions in business and economy as a whole. A subject of analyses is the degree of digitisation of forest sector enterprises based on the implementation and use of online-based applications and electronic catalogs; specialized information and communication management systems and networks; office and warehouse management software. The indicators under analysis are divided into the following groups - "connectivity and digital skills"; "internal processes" and "relationship with customers, suppliers and third parties". In order to achieve comparability of the results, the selected indicators are the same as those officially used by Eurostat. For the purposes of the analysis, secondary and primary data are used as well as publications in the specialized literature, legislation framework and analyzes of statistical data from national and international databases. The paper presents primary results from in-depth interviews with management representatives from large forest industry enterprises, according to the requirements of the Bulgarian Accountancy Act (AA). Good digital practices in the furniture manufacturers are also presented, and some opportunities for development of the Forest industry entities are suggested. |
| Keywords: | digitisation; Forest sector; Forest industry; in-depth interviews; large enterprises |
| JEL: | M0 Q00 |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:96021&r=all |
| By: | Ragchaasuren Galindev; Tsolmon Baatarzorig; Nyambaatar Batbayar; Delgermaa Begz; Unurjargal Davaa; Oyunzul Tserendorj |
| Abstract: | The Government of Mongolia began implementing an IMF program under the Extended Fund Facility agreement (EFF) in May 2017. Under the program, the government has decreased expenditures and increased taxes to achieve debt sustainability via fiscal consolidation and stable growth. At the same time, the government has faced challenges because of its commitment of fiscal consolidation to the IMF: the rising price of fuel and its own fuel-subsidy policies. We used the PEP standard static CGE model to examine the impact of fiscal consolidation on the Mongolian economy under various conditions. Moreover, we used a poverty (microsimulation) model to analyze those impacts at a household level. Our analysis of the impact of fiscal consolidation under pessimistic and optimistic mineral-commodity-price scenarios showed that Mongolia’s economy was closely tied to international commodity prices. Our examination of the government’s alternative policies on fuel subsidies in an environment of fiscal consolidation demonstrated that the effect of increased fuel prices on the economy depended upon government fuel-subsidy policy. |
| Keywords: | CGE model, Mongolian economy, Mining, Fiscal consolidation |
| JEL: | D58 E62 I32 Q33 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:mpiacr:2019-20&r=all |
| By: | Li Li (Zhejiang Sci-Tech University, Hangzhou City, China) |
| Abstract: | China’s market economy is based on state power guidance, so the administrative agencies may abuse their public power excluding or restricting market competitions that cause administrative monopoly. The special investigative measures should be taken in administrative monopoly investigation on account of its public power background. Mandatory interview with executive officers and mandatory reporting of the administrative agencies are the mainly special measures during those investigative procedures, while on-site investigations need to be avoided. Unlike ordinary measures, these two special measures are mandatory which means if the investigating authority or its chief executive rejected report or interview who will be admonished by his superior even punished by crime of dereliction. Recently the Chinese People’s Congress Standing Committee is studying how to revise the antitrust law, we suggest to add those special mandatory measures in the future Chinese Antitrust law. |
| Keywords: | investigation, measures, administrative monopoly, Antitrust Law |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:cpaper:38ll&r=all |
| By: | Monika Bolek (University of Lodz); Rafal Wolski (University of Lodz) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of the paper is related to understanding the preferences and motivations determining the decision making process of investment funds managers on the Polish market. Surveys concerning the investment environment, factors influencing decisions, as well as heuristics and decision traps related to investment funds managers behavior confirm the thesis that they reaction to information appearing on the market, with particular emphasis on messages from the Central Bank of Poland NBP is related to behavioral errors. The research is done on the Polish market, fast developing economy after system transformation, where the investment processes are becoming very important factor of the capital transfers mechanism. The value added of the paper is related to the direct surveys of investment funds managers in the context of the decision they make and heuristics they are affected by. |
| Keywords: | investment funds, managers’ irrationality , behavioural finance, central bank |
| Date: | 2019–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:cpaper:4wb&r=all |
| By: | Yongheng Deng (University of Wisconsin-Madison); Jing Wu; Yang Tang (Nanyang Technological University); ping wang (Washington University in St.Louis) |
| Abstract: | Housing and land prices in China have experienced dramatic growth in the past decade. In conjunction with the rapid growth, housing and land price dispersion across Chinese cities have also become more dispersed. This paper intends to explore how market frictions affect the aggregate as well as the spatial distribution of prices. We first document the spatial variations of housing and land market frictions. Larger cities receive less housing and land subsidizes. Land frictions are improving over time. We then embed both frictions into a dynamic competitive spatial equilibrium framework featured with endogenous rural-urban migration. The calibrated model can reasonably mimic the price growth in the data. The counter-factual results suggest that the frictionless economy leads to a slower housing price growth but faster land price growth. In addition, land frictions tend to inhibit land price growth while housing price growth will slow down if only housing frictions are eliminated. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed019:1351&r=all |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CIRAD - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech) |
| Abstract: | This note offers three narratives about the future of coal based electricity generation in Vietnam. "Blazing up" corresponds to the power development plan 7 revised and updated as of March 2019. "Closed window" tells what we think would happen under pure market forces. "Coal peak" tells what could happen if the State continues to steer the electricity system into the energy transition, decisively and without imposing high costs to stakeholders. |
| Date: | 2019–08–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:halshs-02263898&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | This capacity development mission follows on two earlier missions conducted by the Fiscal Affairs Department (FAD) of the International Monetary Fund. These missions covered the development of a Standard Chart of Accounts (SCoA) and the Medium-Term Budget Framework (MTBF) that are part of the wider Public Financial Management reforms the Polish government is implementing. These reforms will improve consistency in reporting and provide a stronger basis for understanding the financial position of the general government. It will also help attain the medium-term objective of reducing the structural deficit to 1 percent of GDP by 2021. The mission commends the Polish Ministry of Finance (MoF), for the high level of commitment to the reforms. This commitment was evidenced in various actions and activities of government, including public pronouncements by the Minister of Finance. Also, the progress made with the implementation of the recommendations of the earlier missions was noted. Most notable was the establishment of the Budget System Reform (BSR)1 Project Governance Structures, the progress that various working groups have made with research on their respective topics, and the changes to the Budget Regulation of January 2019 to accommodate medium-term planning. This is supported by the high level of knowledge and expertise displayed by staff working on these reforms. |
| Date: | 2019–09–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:19/287&r=all |
| By: | Comunale, Mariarosaria; Geis, André; Gkrintzalis, Ioannis; Moder, Isabella; Polgár, Éva Katalin; Quaglietti, Lucia; Savelin, Li |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews and assesses financial stability challenges in countries preparing for EU membership, i.e. Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia and Turkey. The paper mainly focuses on the period since 2016 (unless the analysis requires a longer time span) and on the banking sectors that dominate financial systems in this group of countries. For the Western Balkans, the paper analyses recent trends in financial intermediation, as well as the two main challenges that have been identified in the past. Asset quality continues to improve, but the share of non-performing loans is still high in some countries, while regulatory, legal and tax impediments are still to be resolved in most cases. High unofficial euroisation is a source of indirect credit risk for countries with their own national legal tender, which calls for continued efforts to promote the use of domestic currencies in the financial system. At the same time, banking systems seem less prone to financial stress from maturity mismatches than certain EU peers. These risks are met with a solid shock-absorbing capacity in the Western Balkans, as exemplified by robust capital and liquidity buffers. Turkey experienced a period of heightened financial stress during 2018 and, while its banking system appears to have sufficient buffers to absorb shocks overall, significant forex borrowing of corporates and high rollover needs of banks in foreign exchange on the wholesale market constitute considerable financial stability risks. JEL Classification: F31, F34, F36, G15, G21, G28 |
| Keywords: | Banking sector, credit growth, EU accession, financial stability, foreign exchange lending, non-performing loans, Turkey., Western Balkans |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbops:2019233&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Economic growth has remained strong, raising people’s incomes towards those in advanced EU countries. However, macroeconomic imbalances have become increasingly evident the current account and fiscal deficits have been widening and inflation pressures are building. Economic growth is expected to stay above potential in 2019 on the back of continued fiscal stimulus, but slow down over the medium term due to faltering investment and reforms. The growing imbalances are eroding policy room for maneuver and increasing the risk that the convergence with EU could suffer a setback, triggered by domestic policy excesses or swings in global investor sentiment. |
| Keywords: | Economic indicators;Central banks;Financial and Monetary Sector;Balance of payments;Monetary policy;ISCR,CR,NBR,Proj,account deficit,current account deficit,Stand-By |
| Date: | 2019–08–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:19/278&r=all |
| By: | Gu, Tao |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this paper is to examine how wage decisions and fixed asset investments are determined under China’s imperfect financial market. In addition, we also investigate what kind of interrelationship exists between wage determination and fixed asset investment. To test the hypothesis, we collect aggregate data on wages, the financial market, and fixed asset investment by province, sector, and ownership type from several statistical yearbooks. The main results are (1) while the rise in financial market maturity has led to rising wage levels for state-owned enterprises, this phenomenon is not observed in the private sector, (2) retained earnings are positively correlated with capital investment, indicating that China’s financial market is incomplete. Furthermore, in the private sector, there is a strong reliance on internal reserves that is not observed in the state-owned sector, suggesting that the private sector is differentially treated in the financial market. (3) In the state-owned sector, wage growth has a positive correlation with fixed assets, while in the nonstate-owned sector this relationship is not observed. This implies that in the nonstate-owned sector the underpayment of wages may be used as a survival strategy to conduct business if under financial constraints. |
| Keywords: | Imperfect financial market, Fixed capital investment, Wage determination |
| JEL: | G10 G30 J3 |
| Date: | 2019–09–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:95986&r=all |
| By: | Malgorzata Rymarzak; Tore Haugen |
| Abstract: | The examination of European countries reveals differences in the campuses ownership and management. In more and more countries there has been a tendency in recent years towards decentralization (defined here as devolution of power and responsibility from the state level to higher education institutions (HEIs) level). Higher education systems (especially western and central-eastern ones) have made it possible for HEIs to own buildings as decentralization has been seen as a more efficient, lean and effective management strategy. However, this does not apply to the Scandinavian countries where centralized model is quite common and campuses are owned either by the state or a semi-public agency. In Norway, where the universities have traditionally been founded directly by the state (Ministry of Education) the ownership of buildings and facilities have been transferred to the universities after the building project have been done by the semi-public agency Statsbygg. The university colleges are normally renting their buildings from the semi-public agency or in smaller scale from the private market. Purpose – The aim of this paper is to compare two opposite campus ownership and management models in Norway and Poland and discuss the arguments in favour of centralized and decentralized model.Design/methodology/approach – This study has adopted qualitative document analysis to explore the advantages and disadvantages of centralization and decentralization of campus ownership and management based on the examples of Norway and Poland. These contradictory models were the reasons for choosing the two countries, as well as was the contrast between them in terms of population size and the number of HEIs. Findings - The paper demonstrates two opposite campus ownership and management models and indicates that both centralization and decentralization present their own challenges. The Norwegian centralized model based on a belief that with a relatively small number of HEIs located on a large, sparsely populated national territory, centralization as a policy mechanism allows achieving results such as economies of scale, efficiency, implementation of best practices, development of specialized functions, optimization of resources and creation of flexibility via a large pool of assets. With a governmental initiative to create larger and stronger Norwegian HEIs, in 2015-2017 the majority HEIs (universities and university colleges) merged with 2-3 partners in order to be stronger in research and education and competitive institutions in national and international perspective. In comparison, Poland represents a large, densely populated country in which, after the fall of communism in 1990, a decentralized model was implemented as a promising strategy for improvement in management and administration of over 100 public HEIs. However, because of inadequate planning of decentralization results by policy-makers and limited experience in campus ownership and management by HEIs, some of HEIs have been facing considerable problems. A lack of sufficient mechanisms for coordination of this transformation resulted in negative outcomes for several HEIs, such as over-investment and low utilization rate of campus space.Practical implications – This paper can be a resource for HEI policy makers, funding and supervisory institutions as well as HEI chancellors, financial directors and campus managers. |
| Keywords: | centralization; Decentralization; real estate; universities |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_339&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | With the support of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) European Department (EUR), the IMF’s Statistics Department (STA) conducted a financial soundness indicators (FSIs) technical assistance (TA) mission in Chisinau, Moldova, during March 18 29, 2019, to improve Moldova’s FSI compilation. The mission was financed by Netherlands Capacity Development Partnership Program. The mission worked with staff of the National Bank of Moldova (NBM) (i) to review available source data for deposit takers (DTs) and other sectors including other financial corporations (OFCs); and (ii) to review the current FSIs compiled by the NBM with a view to ensure methodological consistency of the FSI compilation with the IMF’s FSI Compilation Guide 2006 (FSI Guide). In collaboration with staff of the NBM, the mission delivered these objectives and agreed with the authorities on an action plan to improve FSIs in Moldova. The improvement of FSIs contributes to enhancement of policy analysis and decision-making by the NBM. |
| Date: | 2019–09–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:19/284&r=all |
| By: | Dan Xiang; Jianping Gu |
| Abstract: | In the 19th National Congress of China, the central government proposed that instead of speculation houses are for living, and will construct long-term mechanism to stabilize housing prices. To achieve the national strategic target, the legislation of property tax in China has been speeding up. Shanghai and Chongqing, as two experimental cases, have implemented property tax system since Jan. 2011. From the literature review, the main research area is the effect of property tax on housing prices. On the one hand, the prices of houses fall by the present value because of the projected increase of holding costs, see e.g. Van den Noord(2005), Cebula(2009) and Kuang(2012). On the other hand, because of the improved local public services quality, the housing price will increase, see e.g. Oates(1969), Fischel(1992) and Lang and Jian(2004). However, housing prices do not fully represent the stability of housing market. price-to-rent ratios are commonly used by scholars to gauge the degree of speculation in the housing market. In the paper, we evaluate the effect of trial property taxes on housing price-to-rent ratio making use of a counterfactual analysis, exploiting the dependence of housing prices among different cities. We use the leave-nv-out cross-validation criterion for the optimal choice of the control cities, where property tax has not been implemented, and construct the counterfactual price-to-rent ratios in Shanghai and Chongqing by comparing with the control cities. The empirical result shows that property taxes have different effects on different types of houses. The result suggests that in order to curb the soaring housing prices, property tax is a ‘future-oriented’ policy. But it should be different in different cities, and different house type should be corresponding to different policy. |
| Keywords: | control variate method; counterfactual analysis; leave-nv-out; price-to-rent ratio; property tax |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2019–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2019_172&r=all |
| By: | Piotr Bańbuła (Narodowy Bank Polski); Arkadiusz Kotuła (Narodowy Bank Polski); Agnieszka Paluch (Narodowy Bank Polski); Mateusz Pipień (Narodowy Bank Polski); Piotr Wdowiński (Narodowy Bank Polski) |
| Abstract: | This study presents estimates of the optimal level of aggregate Tier 1 capital ratio in the Polish banking sector. The analysis takes into account macroeconomic benefits of raising Tier 1 capital ratio and macroeconomic costs related to it. The main macroeconomic benefit from a higher capital captured in the study is a higher resilience of the banking sector and consequently a reduction in the likelihood of a banking crisis. The benefit of higher capital ratios is expressed as the product of a decrease in the likelihood of a crisis and the expected cost of a crisis. The latter was calibrated based on the literature review. The probabilities of crisis for different levels of capital were calculated based on probit models estimated on macro data and a simulation model reflecting some of the main features of the banking sector in Poland. The SVAR model estimated on data for the Polish economy was used to assess the scale of the slowdown in GDP growth due to a rise of capital ratios. The net effect of an increase of capital ratios, expressed as a percentage of GDP, reflects the difference between their expected benefits due to the reduction in the probability of a crisis and their economic costs in the form of a decrease in the expected GDP growth rate. The level of Tier 1 ratio, at which the net effect, i.e. the difference between benefits and costs of raising capital ratios, is the largest, is called optimal from a macroeconomic perspective. The results indicate that the optimal level of aggregate Tier 1 ratio is in the range of 11%-23% with the expected value derived from this analysis and the literature at the level of 18%. |
| Keywords: | financial crisis, macroprudential policy, bank capital, banking sector regulation |
| JEL: | G01 C25 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:312&r=all |
| By: | Douglas Hanley (University of Pittsburgh); Chengying Luo (University of Pittsburgh); Mingqin Wu (South China Normal University) |
| Abstract: | The spatial arrangement of firms is known to be a critical factor influencing a variety of firm level outcomes. Numerous existing studies have investigated the importance of firm density and localization at various spatial scales, as well as agglomeration by industry. In this paper, we bring relatively new data and techniques to bear on the issue. Regarding the data, we use a comprehensive census of firms conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS). This covers firms in all industries and localities, and we have waves from both 2004 and 2008 available. Past studies have largely relied on manufacturing firms. This additional data allows us to look more closely at clustering within services, as well as potential spillovers between services and manufacturing. Further, by looking at the case of China, we get a snapshot of a country (especially in the early 2000s) in a period of rapid transition, but one that has already industrialized to a considerable degree. Additionally, this is an environment shaped by far more aggressive industrial policies than those seen in much of Western Europe and North America. In terms of techniques, we take a machine learning approach to understanding firm clustering and agglomeration. Specifically, we use images generated by density maps of firm location data (from the NBS data) as well as linked satellite imagery from the Landsat 7 spacecraft. This allows us to frame the issue as one of prediction. By predicting firm outcomes such as profitability, productivity, and growth using these images, we can understand their relationship to firm clustering. By turning this into a prediction problem using images as inputs, we can tap into the rich and rapidly evolving literature in computer science and machine learning on deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Additionally, we can utilize software and hardware tools developed for these purposes. |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed019:1522&r=all |
| By: | Ragchaasuren Galindev; Tsolmon Baatarzorig; Nyambaatar Batbayar; Delgermaa Begz; Unurjargal Davaa; Oyunzul Tserendorj |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) intended to increase the exporting capacity of the coal sector on the Mongolian economy and environment by using a recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium model. FDI was used to expand the coal-export sector as well as to construct a railway line connecting the Mongolian main coal reserve and the Chinese border. FDI had a positive impact on macroeconomic variables such as GDP, employment, investment, and household consumption but produced a Dutch disease effect in some sectors. The new railway reduced the environmental impact of transporting coal. |
| Keywords: | CGE model, Mongolian economy, Mining, Fiscal consolidation |
| JEL: | D58 E62 I32 Q33 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:mpiacr:2019-21&r=all |