|
on Transition Economics |
| By: | Pokojski, Zenon |
| Abstract: | Agricultural market in Poland changed significantly after Poland’s accession to the European Union. New entities emerged in the value chain of agricultural production, profitability of all links of the chain grew and the model of servicing agricultural producers underwent a major change. Entities such as Gmina Cooperatives “Samopomoc Chłopska” or Spółdzielnie Kółek Rolniczych (Farmers’ Cooperative Associations) that were vital for distribution of means for agricultural production until 1989 – today are almost insignificant. Their role was taken over by private companies that very often started their activity on the grounds of property of bankrupt rural cooperatives. Changes on the market of means for agricultural production in Poland proceeded differently to those in other countries of the Central and Eastern Europe. The main reason for this was different structure of farms – the key customers of the market, their legal, economic and social status. In the Czech Republic, Slovakia or Bulgaria there was much fewer very small private agricultural entrepreneurs. Whereas the distribution channels in Western Europe were formed by several decades of free market economy. The model of distribution in Poland continues to evolve adjusting its offer to the dynamics of changes of their customers. Participants of agricultural market seek new possibilities to create and capture value, i.e. the highest margins in the chain of companies participating in manufacturing and supplying products to the final customer. The strongest ones try vertical and horizontal integration as well as different forms of partnership to shorten the distribution channels and take over as much value added as possible in the entire chain. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, International Development |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iafepa:276381&r=tra |
| By: | Bukvić, Rajko |
| Abstract: | Serbian. У раду се анализира пољопривреда Краснодарске покрајине, једног од мањих, али економски развијенијих субјеката сложено уређене Руске Федерације (РФ). Најпре је дат географски и друштвеноекономски приказ Краснодарске покрајине. По величини територије и броју становника упоредив с мањим европским земљама, попут Аустрије, Чешке или Републике Ирске, односно Данске, Финске и Словачке, овај регион је нешто мањи и слабије насељен од Србије. Разноврсност рељефа, климатских услова и велика природна богатства чине повољне услове за његов економски и друштвени развој. Посебно су развијени агроиндустријски комплекс и туризам, што и представља знак распознавања региона не само у оквирима Русије, већ и ван њених граница. У производњи низа пољопривредних култура Краснодарска покрајина заузима водеће, или једно од водећих места у оквирима Руске Федерације. Дат је кратак приказ Агрохолдинга Кубањ, највећег и најзначајнијег пољопривредно-прехрамбеног предузећа у Покрајини и једног од највећих у РФ, чије је седиште у г. Уст-Лабинск, и који има активе у више од 20 агропредузећа у неколико рејона Краснодарске покрајине. Земљишни фонд АгроХолдинга чини 112 хиљада ха, број запослених је око 5 хиљада људи. Привредна сарадња Србије с Русијом у целини знатно заостаје за оном из времена СФРЈ и СССР, али ће у будућности свакако бити повећана, а у оквиру тога и сарадња с Краснодарском покрајином, која се неће заснивати само на трговинским односима. English. This article analyzes the agriculture of the Krasnodar Krai, one of the smallest but economicaly most developed subjects of complexly organized Russian Federation. At the beginning it was provided a geographic and socio-economic description of Krasnodar Krai. Its size and population are comparable to the ones of smaller European countries, such as Austria, Czech Republic, Republic of Ireland or Denmark, Finland and Slovakia. In comparison to Serbia, this region is somewhat smaller and less densely populated. Its landscape and climate diversity, as well as an abundance of natural resources make a good starting point for a further economic and social development of the region. The agro-industrial complex and tourism are especially developed in this region and are considered its strong points both within Russia and outside its borders. In the production of many agrarian products Krasnodar Krai is leader, or at the top in the Russian Federation. It is also given the short survey of the AgroHolding Kuban, greatest and most important agriculture and food enteprises in the Krasnodar Krai, and one of the greatest in Russia. The level of industrial cooperation between Serbia and Russia is considerably lower than in the times of SFRY and USSR. However, it will certainly increase in the future, leading to an intensification of cooperation with Krasnodar region which will not only be based on trade relations. |
| Keywords: | Краснодарска покрајина, агроиндустрија, туризам, развој, Агрохолдинг Кубањ, Krasnodar Krai, agro-industry, tourism, development, Agroholding Kuban |
| JEL: | Q10 Q13 R10 R11 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:89296&r=tra |
| By: | Bin Wang (City University of Hong Kong); Yu Zheng (Queen Mary University of London) |
| Abstract: | We provide a theory of how growth, corruption, and a low-powered public-sector pay scale coexist in a stable equilibrium in the early stage of China's development. The regionally decentralized authoritarian regime of China features lower-level government officials competing for promotion to a higher level in the government by generating local economic growth, and calls for high-powered incentives to elicit effort from the the officials. However, this is at odds with the generally low-powered public-sector pay scale in China. We propose a principal-agent model, where the principal represents the Chinese people's desire to pursue economic growth and the agents are the government officials delegated with production tasks and organized in a tournament, to address how a low-powered pay scale can effectively elicit effort in a tournament infested with widespread corruption. |
| Keywords: | Institution; Tournament; Corruption; China |
| JEL: | D73 J45 O43 P26 |
| Date: | 2018–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qmw:qmwecw:872&r=tra |
| By: | Csaba Weiner (Institute of World Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences) |
| Abstract: | Poland entered the twenty-first century with an unsustainable energy/electricity mix, strongly over-dependent on coal. This situation seems to be changing very slowly, while there are multiple factors that make it imperative for the issue to be urgently addressed. On the one hand, this paper aims to assess the security of the stationary fuel supply by applying the conventional three-dimensional approach, encompassing availability, affordability and sustainability. On the other, we plan to use our own scheme to analyse gas diversification (Weiner, 2017: 6), i.e. a fuel which, alongside coal, is a very sensitive issue linked to the security of the Polish electric power fuel supply. We demonstrate that the three-dimensional approach is also appropriate for addressing the issue of supply security in the case of a country with a securitized energy agenda based on fears of problems with the availability and affordability of Russian gas supplies. It also highlights Poland’s concern over foreign technological reliance regarding renewables production. We show how the energy perspective, the institutional context, as well as perceptions regarding threat, dependence and Russia influence choices made from among different security of supply dimensions. We find that though the role of coal will surely decrease, there is great uncertainty about Poland’s energy policy and security of supply because of deficiencies in infrastructure and the unknown future role of the particular fuels in the energy/electricity mix, also expected to include nuclear. We can observe that every energy policy step possible is being taken to maintain the role of coal, and Poland moves toward sustainability only as much and as soon as it is required by its EU membership. Not only does the coal industry capture Poland’s energy policy, but also geopolitical considerations cement reliance on coal, providing low energy import dependence. Regarding gas, we find that since the January 2009 Russian–Ukrainian gas crisis, Poland has taken action to diversify its gas supplies, and it has finally achieved results, but there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding Russian gas imports. |
| Keywords: | Poland, Russia, Central and Eastern Europe, energy security, security of supply, gas diversification, coal, gas, nuclear energy, renewables |
| JEL: | L71 L95 O13 P28 Q4 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwe:workpr:243&r=tra |
| By: | Daniel Berkowitz |
| Abstract: | n China's manufacturing sector, labor shares varied widely across firms, and the mass offirms paying low labor shares increased during 1998-2007. To explain this pattern, we build amodel that connects labor shares with capital-labor ratios and product markups and examinehow firms' responses to market distortions shape labor share distributions. The widely disperseddistributions of capital-labor ratios and markups, combined with estimated high elasticities ofcapital-labor substitution, account for the first three moments of labor share distributions. Thesimultaneous divergence of capital-labor ratios and convergence of markups explains the leftwardshift in labor share distributions over the period. |
| Date: | 2018–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pit:wpaper:6466&r=tra |
| By: | Liwiński, Jacek |
| Abstract: | In 1999, a reform of education was implemented in Poland, which added one year to the shortest available educational path, leading to the acquisition of basic vocational education. In the new system, students choosing this path acquire one more year of general education, which, according to the authors of the reform, should improve the student's position in the labor market, as the inadequate general skills were identified as the main deficit of basic vocational education prior to the reform. Using the regression discontinuity design and data from the Polish LFS, we find that an additional year of general education has led to an increase in hourly wages of men, but not of women, who completed basic vocational schools. |
| Keywords: | education,schooling,earnings,regression discontinuity design |
| JEL: | I21 J24 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:253&r=tra |
| By: | Vasilev, Aleksandar |
| Abstract: | We introduce internal consumption habits into a real-business-cycle setup augmented with a detailed government sector. We calibrate the model to Bulgarian data for the period following the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2016). We investigate the quantitative importance of the presence of internal consumption habits motive for the propagation cyclical fluctuations in Bulgaria. Allowing for habits in consumption improves the model performance against data, and in addition this extended setup dominates the standard RBC model framework without habits, e.g., Vasilev (2009). |
| Keywords: | Business cycles,consumption habits,Bulgaria |
| JEL: | E32 E37 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:182501&r=tra |
| By: | Ewelina Nawrocka |
| Abstract: | Market economy has existed in Poland for almost thirty years. While a new economy was being formed, new laws were established. However, the issue of collecting data on real property has not been properly solved, as there is no nationwide database referring to real property. Information on real property in Poland is collected in the Residential Property Price Register in county offices. Different computer programs are used to create regional databases, however these databases are not compatible and the information gathered in the databases is incomplete.The obstacles in access to full information on real property hamper the work of valuers, particularly in defining trends in property price changes. For the purpose of a comparative approach to property valuation, the Real Estate Management Act requires that time changes in the price of similar property should be taken into account. For the last 20 years, the President of the Central Statistical Office of Poland has had to publish the real property price change index, however the lack of real property information was the reason why the work on defining the index has not been fully completed. For three years, there have been published the GUS President’s announcements concerning the change in market prices of properties purchased by household in a quarter of a year under research compared to their prices in the preceding quarter according to the Regions. For these reasons valuers in Poland use transaction prices and property description from notarial acts and they determine the price change rate themselves.Purpose: The purpose is to present the practices of price change factor determination followed by valuers in Poland, especially the degree to which they are known to valuers and applied.Design/methodology/approach:Results of a survey among property valuers in order to recognise their knowledge of identified methods and their application in practice; The appraisal of possible utilisation of the methods of stipulating price change rates, illustrated with an example of the local real property market (quantitative methods).FindingsMethods of stipulating the property price change ate identified so far are subdivided into simple methods (e.g. average, median, method of tracing representative price of the property) and methods which also include its characteristics (e.g. repeat-sales regression method, hedonic methods, mixed methods). Appraisers in Poland usually use simple methods." |
| Keywords: | methods; Price index; Property; Valuation; Valuers |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2018_63&r=tra |
| By: | Tomasz Chmielewski (Narodowy Bank Polski); Mariusz Kapuściński (Narodowy Bank Polski); Andrzej Kocięcki (Narodowy Bank Polski); Tomasz Łyziak (Narodowy Bank Polski); Jan Przystupa (Narodowy Bank Polski); Ewa Stanisławska (Narodowy Bank Polski); Ewa Wróbel (Narodowy Bank Polski) |
| Abstract: | The picture of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Poland emerging from the latest report is consistent with the findings of the previous research. We confirm a greater role of bank credit in the monetary policy transmission mechanism than in the past as well as the currently small importance of the exchange rate for economic activity and markedly smaller impact of exchange rate fluctuations on inflation than in previous decades. From the point of view of the tasks of the central bank, the most important finding from the empirical research that was carried out is that we do not find evidence to believe that the period of historically low interest rates caused a decline in the effectiveness of the transmission of monetary policy impulses or led to banks taking on excessive risk, with negative consequences for financial stability that this would entail. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:286&r=tra |
| By: | Katalin Bodnár (Magyar Nemzeti Bank and European Central Bank); Ludmila Fadejeva (Latvijas Banka); Stefania Iordache (Banca Naţională a României); Liina Malk (Eesti Pank); Desislava Paskaleva (Българска народна банка); Jurga Pesliakaitė (Lietuvos Bankas); Nataša Todorović Jemec (Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development of the Republic of Slovenia); Peter Tóth (Národná banka Slovenska); Robert Wyszyński (Narodowy Bank Polski) |
| Abstract: | We study the transmission channels for rises in the minimum wage using a unique firm-level dataset from eight Central and Eastern European countries. Representative samples of firms in each country were asked to evaluate the relevance of a wide range of adjustment channels following specific instances of rises in the minimum wage during the recent post-crisis period. The paper adds to the rest of literature by presenting the reactions of firms as a combination of strategies, and evaluates the relative importance of those strategies. Our findings suggest that the most popular adjustment channels are cuts in non-labour costs, rises in product prices, and improvements in productivity. Cuts in employment are less popular and occurs mostly through reduced hiring rather than direct layoffs. Our study also provides evidence of potential spillover effects that rises in the minimum wage can have on firms without minimum wage workers. |
| Keywords: | minimum wage, adjustment channels, firm survey. |
| JEL: | D22 E23 J31 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:292&r=tra |
| By: | Aleksandr Grigoryan; Knar Khachatryan |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analyze the recent migration wave in Armenia, using household level representative data from 2011. We identify determinants of emigration intentions by estimating a bivariate probit model with endogenous remittances. The key finding is that remittances help potential migrants to ease the migration process, serving as a resource rather than as a contractual tool between migrants and non-migrants. Spatial factors dominate in the set of (community level) instruments driving remittances. When distinguishing the destination country for potential migrants, Post-Soviet versus Western countries (EU countries or USA), we find that the instruments identified for remittances are more relevant for individuals targeting the Post-Soviet area (mainly Russia). Nevertheless, remittances remain a significant resource for migrating to Western countries. In this case, we control for endogeneity of remittances using Lewbel’s (2012) methodology. Our findings suggest that the two pools of potential migrants differ crucially in the main set of skill characteristics: high-skilled potential migrants opt for Western countries (brain drain), while the low-skilled prefer Post-Soviet countries as a destination. In particular, English language knowledge and computer literacy increase the likelihood for migrating to Western countries, and individuals with those skills are less likely to migrate to Post-Soviet countries. Education is significant for the Post-Soviet model only, with a negative impact on migration intentions. |
| Keywords: | migration; remittances; intentions; development; households; |
| JEL: | F22 J11 O12 |
| Date: | 2018–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp626&r=tra |
| By: | Sandra Vieira Gomes; Costin Ciora; Ion Anghel |
| Abstract: | Transport plays a crucial role in urban development by providing access for people to education, markets, employment, recreation, health care and other key services. Cities which prioritize public transport and non-motorized modes are considered at the top of surveys measuring urban quality of life. Concerns over the quality of life have spread to the growing use of active transportation modes, and as so, proximity to the public transportation system is highly valued. The relationship between public transport accessibility and residential land value is the subject of many recent researches. A house located near public transports will tend to be sold at higher prices. This is due to the convenience that public transportation brings to its influence area, enabling quick access to the network and reduced travel times. However, some studies have found that this proximity can induce adverse effects on property values.The main concern of this paper is to address the importance of a public transport subway system in urban areas, and to analyse the effect of housing distance to stations has in real estate prices.A geocoded database integrated in a geographical information system was used, containing information on housing unit’s sales from Bucharest, Romania, between 2013 and 2017. This system allowed analysing and exploring all data characteristics. The effect of housing distance to stations has in real estate prices was obtained through statistical modelling procedures, developed within an R software environment. |
| Keywords: | Accessibility; Bucharest; Metro; Public Transport; Residential pricing |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2018_108&r=tra |
| By: | Rose Cunningham; Eden Hatzvi; Kun Mo |
| Abstract: | The size of China’s financial system raises the possibility that the liberalization of its capital account could have a large effect on the global financial system. This paper provides a counterfactual scenario analysis that estimates what the size and direction of China’s overseas portfolio investments would have been in 2015 if China had had no restrictions on these outflows. In such a scenario, China’s holdings of overseas portfolio assets would have been between US$1.5 trillion and US$3.2 trillion (13 to 29 per cent of Chinese GDP), or 5 to 12 times its actual holdings of US$281 billion. Our model estimates that these additional holdings would have been predominantly directed to the world’s deepest financial markets, especially the United States, while emerging-market economies would have received little additional portfolio investment. These results suggest that the liberalization of Chinese portfolio outflows may not prove disruptive to the global financial system, although it could have important implications for China. |
| Keywords: | Balance of payments and components, Econometric and statistical methods, International topics |
| JEL: | C23 F21 G15 F32 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocadp:18-11&r=tra |
| By: | Ziętara, Wojciech; Adamski, Marcin |
| Abstract: | The paper presents the level of competitiveness of the Polish dairy farms at the background of farms from the selected European Union countries. The selection was not random. The research covered farms from the following countries: Poland, Hungary, Lithuania, Austria, Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands and France. Hungary, Lithuania and Austria were selected because of similar farm size and structure as well as similar production intensity level. Whereas Germany and France – as the largest milk producers, while Denmark and the Netherlands – as countries with the highest level of milk production intensity. Researched materials were sourced from data on farms covered by European FADN monitoring between 2013 and 2015. Competitiveness of farms was determined by the ratio of farm income to costs of use of own factors of production. Competitive ability was shown by Polish medium large and large farms with economic size of, respectively, EUR 50-100 thousand SO and EUR 100-500 thousand SO , using, accordingly, 39.1 and 81.3 ha of UAA and maintaining: 31 and 65 cows. Competitive ability was shown by Hungarian and Lithuanian farms from similar economic size classes and very large Hungarian and German farms. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Community/Rural/Urban Development, Farm Management |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iafepa:276374&r=tra |
| By: | Alma Kudebayeva |
| Abstract: | Given the lack of longitudinal data for Central Asia, research on poverty has largely ignored the time dimension. This study uses panel data constructed from the rotating cross-sectional Kazakhstan Household Budget Survey for the 2001-2009 period. The panel data provides an opportunity to measure chronic poverty levels and poverty transitions for the first time in Kazakhstan. We find that, despite the rapid and substantial reduction in poverty in the country since the turn of the century, and depending on the measure of chronic poverty employed, as much as a quarter of the population has experienced persistent poverty. However, the majority of chronically poor experience interrupted poverty spells. We apply the multiple-spell hazard model analysis to shed light on factors that impact on poverty exit and re-entry. The results of these estimates confirm that families with children under age six are experiencing higher probability of entry into poverty and lower probability of exit from poverty. Policy interventions are needed to improve the situation by providing an affordable state child care system in Kazakhstan. |
| Keywords: | chronic poverty; longitudinal data; multiple-spell hazard model; Kazakhstan; |
| JEL: | I32 C23 C41 |
| Date: | 2018–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp627&r=tra |
| By: | Iva Tomic (The Institute of Economics, Zagreb); Ivan Zilic (The Institute of Economics, Zagreb) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we evaluate the effects of active labor market policy (ALMP) reform, the so-called SOR measure (vocational training for work without commencing employment), on labor market outcomes in Croatia. In 2012 SOR was redesigned to ease the first labor market entry and promote on-the-job training, enabling a young person without relevant work experience to get a one-year contract and a net monthly remuneration of 210 euro. The measure soon became popular, especially among university graduates, accounting for around third of their unemployment exits, and absorbing two thirds of funds allocated to ALMPs. Pooling Croatian Labor Force Surveys from 2007-2016 and using difference-in-difference strategy, we estimate the causal intent-to-treat effect of the reform on labor market outcomes of the potentially eligible group: 18-29-year-olds. Results indicate that the reform has had, at best, neutral effects on employment and unemployment; moreover, we find some evidence that a portion of young individuals were propelled into inactivity. However, we do find an adverse effect on wages-driven mostly by wages received by females and university graduates-both at the mean and higher percentiles of the wage distribution. This research provides insights on effectiveness of ALMPs in ameliorating youth unemployment in Europe, and opens questions on the appropriateness of the use of European Union funds in new EU member states. |
| Keywords: | ALMP, evaluation, labor market outcomes, traineeship reform, youth unemployment |
| JEL: | J08 J31 J41 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iez:wpaper:1804&r=tra |
| By: | Yi Chen; Hanming Fang |
| Abstract: | Family planning plays a central role in contemporary population policies. However, little is known about its long-term consequences in old age because of the identification challenge. In this study, we examine how family planning affects the quality of life of the Chinese elderly. The direction of the effect is theoretically unclear. On the one hand, having fewer children allows parents to reallocate more resources to themselves, improving their well-being. On the other hand, having fewer children also leads to less care and companionship from children in old age. To empirically probe the effect of family planning, we identify the causal impact by exploiting the provincial heterogeneity in implementing the “Later, Longer, Fewer” policies in the early 1970s. We find that the policies greatly reduced the number of children born to each couple by 0.85. Parents also receive less support from children in terms of living arrangements, inter vivos transfers, and emotional support. Finally, we find that family planning has drastically different effects on elderly parent's physical and mental well-being. Whereas parents who are more exposed to the family planning policies consume more and enjoy slightly better physical health status, they report more severe depression symptoms. Our study calls for greater attention to the mental health status of the Chinese elderly. |
| JEL: | H31 I15 I18 J13 |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25041&r=tra |
| By: | Lily Fang; Josh Lerner; Chaopeng Wu; Qi Zhang |
| Abstract: | Governments are important financiers of private sector innovation. While these public funds can ease capital constraints and information asymmetries, they can also introduce political distortions. We empirically explore these issues for China, where a quarter of firms’ R&D expenditures come from government subsidies. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that the anticorruption campaign that began in 2012 and the departures of local government officials responsible for innovation programs strengthened the relationship between firms’ historical innovative efficiency and subsequent subsidy awards and depressed the influence of their corruption-related expenditures. We also examine the impact of these changes: subsidies became significantly positively associated with future innovation after the anti-corruption campaign and the departure of government innovation officials. |
| JEL: | G28 H25 O32 |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25098&r=tra |
| By: | Tibor Hledik; Jan Vlcek |
| Abstract: | We identify the natural rate of interest in the Czech Republic as the real rate consistent with output at its equilibrium level and inflation at the target. To identify the rate, we use a (semi-)structural model featuring rational expectations and a forward-looking interest rate rule. Compared to the mainstream literature, the model provides a comprehensive set of cross-restrictions with respect to unobserved variables, including that of the natural rate. Furthermore, we argue that the natural rate of interest in a small open economy is a function of equilibrium real growth adjusted for equilibrium real exchange rate appreciation. Our findings suggest that the natural interest rate in the Czech Republic was around 1 percent in 2017. The current decline of the natural rate from its peak in 2015 mainly reflects the renewed appreciation of the equilibrium real exchange rate on the back of robust real GDP growth. |
| Keywords: | Natural rate of interest, (semi-)structural model |
| JEL: | C32 E43 E52 O40 |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2018/7&r=tra |
| By: | Yushan Li (Institute of World Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences) |
| Abstract: | China became the second largest outward investor for first ever in 2015. The dominant role of Chinese “go out” policy on such rising OFDI is agreed by a growing number of literatures. This paper presents historical view of that policy and discuss how the government is helping Chinese MNEs to invest abroad. Overall, the “go out” policy has been through four stages, from the initiation, to the formalization, to the expansion and to the new era. As breakthroughs have been made, the regulatory framework is still cumbersome. Although the central government is working on simplification and deregulation, the latest change of the framework might be seen as a signal of centralization. While several challenges ahead, the dominant role of Chinese SOEs in OFDI and the market asymmetry between China and other countries are two problems that worries foreign investors the most. |
| Keywords: | China, go out policy, outward foreign direct investment, OFDI |
| JEL: | F21 F23 G18 G28 G38 P33 |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwe:workpr:244&r=tra |
| By: | Ádám Banai (Magyar Nemzeti Bank); Nikolett Vágó (Magyar Nemzeti Bank) |
| Abstract: | Housing market is important from a macroprudential perspective because it has a strong effect on the banking sector. Changes in real estate prices may affect the level of bank risk through household mortgage lending, however, the literature has no clear conclusion on this impact mechanism. Using a bank-level database containing quarterly data from 1998 to 2016 we estimated dynamic fixed-effects panel models to examine how bank risk is influenced by housing prices via mortgage lending in the Hungarian banking system. According to the results (1) higher house prices lead to higher bank risk, (2) the higher the share of mortgage loans at a bank, the stronger the positive effect of house prices on bank risk. In the period following the onset of the crisis a much stronger positive relationship could be observed between house prices and bank risk than before the crisis. Using the house price gap which measures the deviation of house prices from their fundamental value we provide empirical evidence that the deviation hypothesis was stronger for Hungary. This suggests that both banks and households tend to undertake excessive risks during a housing market boom, which can be mitigated by macroprudential policy instruments. |
| Keywords: | bank risk, house price index, mortgage loan, real estate market |
| JEL: | G21 G28 G30 C23 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:289&r=tra |
| By: | Vasilev, Aleksandar |
| Abstract: | We introduce consumption habits into an exogenous growth model augmented with a detailed government sector, and calibrate the model to Bulgarian data for the period following the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2016). We show that in contrast to the case without habits, e.g., Vasilev (2009), when the economy features saddle-path stability, the habit motive alone leads to equilibrium indeterminacy in the model. When habits enter multiplicatively in the representative agent's utility function, the setup exhibits "sink" dynamics, and equilibrium paths are determined by "animal spirits." These results are in line with the findings in the literature, e.g., Benhabib and Farmer (1994, 1996) and Farmer (1999), and have major implications for policy-making and welfare. |
| Keywords: | Equilibrium indeterminacy,animal spirits,multiplicative consumption habits,Bulgaria |
| JEL: | E32 E37 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:182499&r=tra |
| By: | Krzysztof Gajewski (Narodowy Bank Polski); Alejandro Jara (Banco Central de Chile); Yujin Kang (Bank of Korea); Junghwan Mok (Bank of Korea); David Moreno (Banco Central de Chile); Dobromił Serwa (Narodowy Bank Polski) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we assess evidence on international monetary policy spillovers to domestic bank lending in Chile, Korea, and Poland, using confidential bank-level data and different measures of monetary policy shocks in relevant currency areas. These three emerging market economies are small and open, their banking systems do not have significant presence overseas, and they can be considered as price takers in the world economy. Such features allow for better identification of binding financial constraints and foreign monetary policy shocks. We find that the monetary policy shocks spill over into domestic bank lending, modifying the degree to which financial frictions tighten or relax, and this evidence is consistent with international bank lending and portfolio channels. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy spillovers, international bank lending channel. |
| JEL: | E32 F32 F34 G21 G15 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:290&r=tra |
| By: | Caporale Guglielmo Maria; Luis A. Gil-Alana; Trilochan Tripathy |
| Abstract: | This paper applies a fractional integration framework to analyse the stochastic behaviour of two Russian stock market volatility índices (namely the originally created RTSVX and the new RVI that has replaced it), using daily data over the period 2010-2018. The empirical findings are consistent and imply in all cases that the two series are mean-reverting, i.e. they are not highly persistent and the effects of shocks disappear over time. This is true regardless of whether the errors are assumed to follow a white noise or autocorrelated process, it is confirmed by the rolling window estimation, and it holds for both subsamples, before and after the detected break. On the whole, it seems that shocks do not have permanent effects on investor sentiment in the Russian stock market. |
| Keywords: | RTSVX, RVI, volatility, persistence, fractional integration, long memory |
| JEL: | C22 G12 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7243&r=tra |
| By: | Astghik Grigoryan |
| Abstract: | It is difficult to avoid the impact of economic restructuring on the landscape and social and economic life of many cities which were used to grow within certain economic structure and also supported by the state (Healey, 1997). In many post-socialist countries the collapse of the socialist system was followed by a number of economic, social and legal reforms, due to which the land and property ownership in most of the countries has been transferred from public to private sector. However, in most cases the state transferred to private hands not only the ownership to the property but also the problems related to the quality of that property. The issue has a specific importance with regard to multi-unit housing since the latter occupies the largest share of urban fabric worldwide.While having scarce public resources the promotion of private property-based investment projects becomes a sound solution in qualifying urban residential spaces and overcoming urban decay. Such projects will be successful if applying collaborative approaches and enhancing the value added by the project.The aim of this study is to discuss the possibilities and constraints for application of certain models of collaborative approach to property-based urban management in post-socialist planning practice. Armenia (Yerevan) shall be considered as a particular case of post-socialist transitional society. The discussion shall be based on surveys conducted within the scope of research project.The results show that even in societies where the private property rights and respective regulations are relatively recent the collaboration in urban regeneration projects is more successful when the allocation of the global project value added to each participant is evidenced and rationalized, whereas supportive institutional framework and participation of financial institution as a project stakeholder are considered essential preconditions. |
| Keywords: | collaborative management; post-socialist society; property-based investment project; Urban Space Quality |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arz:wpaper:eres2018_326&r=tra |
| By: | Hanming Fang; Jin Feng |
| Abstract: | We provide a detailed overview of the current state of the Chinese pension system, as well as its development, its problems and some ideas for future reforms. |
| JEL: | H55 |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25088&r=tra |
| By: | Mario Holzner (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw); Monika Schwarzhappel (The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw) |
| Abstract: | This study provides a first analysis of the recent development in infrastructure investment in the Western Balkans. It identifies infrastructure gaps as well as key infrastructure initiatives in the region, outlines the political dimension and provides the respective detailed infrastructure investment data as collected from the Western Balkans statistical offices. The Western Balkans are a good case study also for other regions in the EU neighbourhood that have similar developmental problems. It teaches that (i) intensity of involvement is important; (ii) the composition of the funds matters; (iii) infrastructure funding will not automatically lead to more political cooperation; (iv) infrastructure development funds can also be used as a sort of reward for more political cooperation. These principles could be applied in the EU’s neighbourhood policy for the Eastern Partnership countries as well as the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership countries, according to the local requirements. |
| Keywords: | Infrastructure investment, transport infrastructure, energy infrastructure, Western Balkans |
| JEL: | H54 L92 Q41 |
| Date: | 2018–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:rpaper:rr:432&r=tra |
| By: | Mario Njavro; Josip Juračak; Tajana Čop |
| Abstract: | The leading agribusiness group Agrokor is one of the biggest in Croatia today with respect to number of integrated companies, employees, and revenues. Its constant growth was based on acquisitions and mainly financed through borrowing. Although questions about Agrokor indebtedness were raised occasionally, the first time the problem was taken seriously was in 2017. Hence, the special national law was adopted according to which Extraordinary Administration and government commissioners were appointed with the role to maintain day-to-day activities, and conduct settlement procedure and restructuring. The objective of this paper is to determine the nature of unfocused growth of Agrokor and its consequences on the business results. For that purpose, financial analysis of main Agrokor member companies was performed. The results reveal decrement in revenues, and increment in costs for the period 2012-2016, which caused lowering of profitability and rise of indebtedness. Altman Z-score showed that all companies are one step to bankruptcy. Furthermore, the main idea is to determine supply chain models through which the company is embedded in the national agribusiness. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Agricultural Finance |
| Date: | 2018–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:iefi18:276857&r=tra |
| By: | Bruszt, Laszlo (Central European University); Campos, Nauro F (Brunel University) |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether and how economic integration increases state capacity. This important relationship has not been studied in detail so far. We put together a conceptual framework to guide our analysis that highlights what we call the Montesquieu, Weber and Smith channels. Each of these correspond to a series of mechanisms in three distinct institutional arenas: judiciary, bureaucracy, and competition policy. To test our framework, we introduce a new panel of institutional reform measures which allow us to investigate how changes in these three arenas interact with each other and what sequence of changes yields increase in state capacity. The yearly data set covers all the 17 countries that became candidates to join the European Union (EU) after the 1995 enlargement. Our main finding is that the relationship between bureaucratic independence and judiciary capacity seems to be the key engine of the process of state capacity building engendered by the prospect of EU membership. Deep integration, we find, can induce broad institutional change by providing incentives for simultaneous change in core state institutions. Yet early and abrupt removal of external anchors might generate significant backsliding, or reversals, in domestic institutional change. |
| Keywords: | deep integration, state capacity, European Union accession, judiciary, bureaucracy, competition policy |
| JEL: | D72 D78 H23 P11 P16 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp11782&r=tra |