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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Dormidontova, Yulia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kazakova, Yuliya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Lyashok, Victor (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Grishina, E. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Tsatsura, Elena (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In accordance with the Concept of state family policy in the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025, the development of the system of state support for families with children is one of the main tasks of the state family policy. Despite the fact that in the years 2000-2013. there was a significant reduction of poverty, the poverty rate among families with children continues to be quite high: in 2014, 18.5% against 11% among the general population. In this regard, particularly relevant is the assessment of the impact of implemented measures of social support for families with children on their well-being. The object of study in this paper is the social support of families with children in Russia (on the example of the pilot regions - the Altai Territory and Samara Region). Spend analysis of the legislation governing the provision of social support to families with children of measures, quantitative survey of families with children and interviews with the staff of the bodies and institutions of social protection. |
| Keywords: | state family policy, family support, Russian federation, children |
| Date: | 2016–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:3134&r=tra |
| By: | Mkrtchyan, Nikita (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Florinskaya, Yulia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the issues of labor spatial mobility of the Russian population. The study was conducted on the example of small towns - as the most problematic in Russia in terms of economic development, inefficient employment, high unemployment, especially in the crisis period. For fieldwork selected four small Russian town - Vyazniki Vladimir Oblast; Rtishchevo of the Saratov region; Kamen-na-Obi Altai Krai; Satka Chelyabinsk region. In each of the cities carried out a representative survey of households and a survey of migrant workers by a standardized interview. In addition to the quantitative methods used in quality - expert interviews with representatives of the administration, employment services, with the management of schools and education institutions, as well as the management of the enterprises and organizations in the surveyed cities. The main conclusion of the work - labor spatial mobility of the population of small towns is at a high level. Over the past 5 years, 22% of households had a total migrant workers, ie It does not work in their village, living there for 5 days or more. Labour migration - this is an important strategy to survive not only to migrants but also the household as a whole. About 9% of households in small towns called the work on the road with one of the main sources of household funds existence. In coming years, growth in labor migration from small towns should not expect - almost everyone who is willing to participate in it, is already involved in it. Therefore, it is impossible to consider the population of small towns as the untapped resource of labor migration, or the potential for settlement of "empty space" in the east of Russia. |
| Keywords: | labour spatial mobility, Russians, small towns |
| Date: | 2016–03–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:2834&r=tra |
| By: | Pamela Lenton (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield); Lu Yin (Department of Economics, University of Sheffield) |
| Abstract: | The education policies introduced in the rural areas of China following the end of the ‘cultural revolution’ resulted in an improved provision of educational institutions along with better quality teachers which increased the educational attainment of young rural migrants and raised their career aspirations. This paper uses data from the Rural-Urban Migration in China (RUMiC) dataset for 2009, in a novel examination of the wage returns to schooling for young and old generations of rural-migrant and urban workers in order to ascertain whether the improved schooling has led to better outcomes. Another novel feature is the examination of the wage returns to over-, required and under-education. We find evidence that the wage return to schooling for young rural-to-urban migrants is larger than that for older migrant workers and that the return to schooling for young urban residents is lower than that of older workers. There is evidence of young migrants receiving a wage premium where they are overeducated for their job. |
| Keywords: | Human Capital; Rural-to-Urban Migration; Discrimination; Wage returns |
| JEL: | I26 J24 J71 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shf:wpaper:2016007&r=tra |
| By: | Zinchenko, Aleksey |
| Abstract: | The article deals with the formation of macroeconomic indicators of income and place of agriculture in the economy of Russia under the planned and market conditions, as well as with their dynamics. There is an analysis of value added in agriculture under modern conditions in general and in the sector of non-financial corporations and households, the features of its economic content are revealed. The method of calculation and analysis of indicators of value added in various spheres of agriculture based on financial reporting data of agricultural organizations is proposed. |
| Keywords: | Сельское хозяйство, валовой внутренний продукт, валовая и чистая добав-ленная стоимость, оценка продукции и доходов, сельскохозяйственные организации, домашние хозяйства населения |
| JEL: | C18 Q1 |
| Date: | 2016–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71727&r=tra |
| By: | Čede, Urška; Chiriacescu, Bogdan; Harasztosi, Péter; Lalinsky, Tibor; Meriküll, Jaanika |
| Abstract: | The literature shows that openness to trade improves long-term growth but also that it may increase exposure to high output volatility. In this vein, our paper investigates whether exporting and export diversification at the firm level have an effect on the output volatility of firms. We use large representative firm-level databases from Estonia, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia over the last boom-bust cycle in 2004-2012. The results confirm that exporting is related to higher volatility at the firm level. There is also evidence that this effect increased during the Great Recession due to the large negative shocks in export markets. In contrast to the literature and empirical findings for large or advanced countries we do not find a statistically significant and consistent mitigating effect from export diversification in the Central and Eastern European countries. In addition, exporting more products or serving more markets does not necessarily result in higher stability of firm sales. JEL Classification: F14, F43, O57 |
| Keywords: | business cycle, CEE, Central and Eastern Europe, export diversification, export share, volatility of sales |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161902&r=tra |
| By: | Romanceva, Julia; Bautin, Vladimir |
| Abstract: | The article is devoted to assessing the dynamics and trends of agricultural production in the period of market transformations. In the 25 years of economic and agrarian reforms, significant changes have taken place in Russian agri-culture. This has led to structural changes in the industry. As a result of the fall in effective demand, outstripping price growth in related sectors and reduced support for the industry by the government, resource and industrial potential has declined, agricultural production has declined significantly, and most of it began to be produced in the non-monetized households. As a result of negative trends imports of agricultural products has become an important source of food security of the country. After the default of 1998, as well as with the adoption of the Doctrine of the food security situation in the industry has improved. Statistical analysis showed that the improvements are coming in a slower pace insufficient to achieve the level in the State program of development of agriculture and regulation of agricultural products, raw materials and food for 2013-2020. The improving of the structure of production by categories with different levels of marketability is underlying growth for the share of domestic products in the total volume of products. |
| Keywords: | агропромышленный комплекс, государственная поддержка, диспаритет цен, сельское хозяйство, ряды динамики, статистический анализ, товарность |
| JEL: | C1 C18 Q1 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71832&r=tra |
| By: | Gulnara Abdrakhmanova (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Galina Gennadievna Kovaleva (National Research University Higher School of Economics); Sergey M. Plaksin (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Our study object is the Russian Internet economy, i.e. economic activities of companies relying on the Russian-language segment of the World Wide Web. The purpose of this study is to classify businesses engaged in the national Internet economy and measure its size (as a share of GDP) using official statistics. The analysis of international approaches used for such studies allowed us to classify these according to the following criteria: the direct impact of the Internet on the economy, indirect economic impact of the Internet, and its indirect impact on the social sphere. To assess the size of the Russian Internet economy we used the approaches applied by international organizations (OECD, BCG, McKinsey) for the analysis of the direct impact of the Internet on the economy [BCG (2014), McKinsey (2011), OECD (2014), etc.]. The authors singled out three sectors within the Internet economy: the sector of ICT infrastructure and its maintenance; the sector of companies doing business purely on the Internet, and the sector of companies combining an online and offline business. To assess the share of the Internet economy in GDP using the production approach we first defined the above sectors in accordance with All-Russian Classification of Economic Activities (OKVED) Rev. 1.1 and subsequently calculated gross value added (GVA) for each sector. For this purpose, the GVA data calculated by Federal Service of State Statistics (Rosstat) was disaggregated while the share of the GVA contributed by the third sector companies (i.e. combining an online and offline business) was assessed using the results of special surveys and Rosstat data. To measure the size of the Internet economy using the expenditure approach we focused on consumer spending on goods bought through the Internet, ICT equipment and Internet access as well as institutions’ expenditure for ICT equipment, fixed capital investment of enterprises engaged in Internet activities, public sector ICT spending, net exports of ICT goods and services. According to our estimates obtained by two methods such as the production approach and expenditure approach, the share of the Internet economy in GDP in 2014 amounted to 2.7 and 2.6%, respectively. Future studies would require a more detailed definition and description of the Internet-related economic activities on the basis of OKVED2 with subsequent calculation of GVA for appropriate companies as well as development of statistical tools for collecting data on household spending |
| Keywords: | Internet economy, online and offline business, Internet, System of National Accounts |
| JEL: | C80 F62 E01 L16 L81 M21 O14 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:61sti2016&r=tra |
| By: | Yakhontova, Elena Sergeevna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Gavrilova, S.V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The paper deals with theoretical approaches to the management of productivity, research the key factors that determine productivity in Russian companies and advanced productivity management practices. productivity management is seen in close connection of the production system and personnel management system. Special attention in this work is given to the study of best practices of domestic and foreign companies in the sustainable growth of labor productivity of staff. |
| Keywords: | management of productivity, Russian companies |
| Date: | 2016–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:3132&r=tra |
| By: | Gorlin, Yury Mikhailovich (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Fedorov, Vitaly (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | Objective demographic and socioeconomic tendencies stipulate the increasing number of retirees with respect to employees and employers who pay compulsory pension contributions. This intensifies the financial pressure on the pension system. Since the problem of raising the retirement age has not been solved, the one way to improve the financial stability of the pension system is to incentivise the delayed retirement. The necessity for the development and realisation of a mechanism for additional incentives for the delayed retirement was anticipated in the Strategy for the long-term development of the Russian Pension System (Strategy). With the aim of realisation of the Strategy, within the framework of the development of a new pension formula, there was anticipated additional coefficients for individual pension coefficients. These coefficients are used to calculate the base and insurance parts of the old-age pension. During the development of the Federal law about insurance pensions and appropriate measures to incentivise the delayed retirement, the macroeconomics situation in the Russian Federation was more stable than nowadays. A deterioration in the macroeconomic situation in the Russian Federation, in addition with the growth of the geopolitical instability after 2014, caused an increase in socioeconomic uncertainty and associated risks, including risks of the pension system. Public confidence in the pension system was threatened by self-contradicting statements from government officials from different Ministries and insufficiently consistent actions with respect to funded defined contribution pension scheme. As a result, according to the data from the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation (2Q2015), less then 20 thousand people decided to delay their retirement. Therefore, in the new macroeconomic reality it is an actual task to review measures that was developed to incentivise the delayed retirement. |
| Keywords: | pension, pension savings, delayed retirement |
| Date: | 2016–03–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:2833&r=tra |
| By: | Fujii, Hidemichi; Cao, Jing; Managi, Shunsuke |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes productive efficiency in relation to CO2 emissions using a unique dataset of 562 Chinese manufacturing firms for the period from 2005 to 2009. We develop a directional distance function approach to identify technical innovators in the area of CO2 emissions. The results indicate that a large number of technical innovators are observed in the textile, paper, steel, and computer industries. Furthermore, there are clearly different trends in productivity change and corporate performance across industries and provinces. This result implies that policy makers need to consider industrial and regional characteristics to develop effective policies that conserve energy and reduce CO2 emissions. |
| Keywords: | Technical innovator; total factor productivity; technology adoption; CO2 emissions; Chinese manufacturing firm |
| JEL: | D24 O14 Q55 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71851&r=tra |
| By: | Paweł Strawiński (Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw); Paulina Broniatowska (Warsaw School of Economics); Aleksandra Majchrowska (University of Lodz) |
| Abstract: | Vocational education in upper-secondary school has been perceived for many years as being inferior to general education, in spite of the fact that vocational education graduates enjoy a faster transition from school to work and are more likely to have a permanent first job. As a consequence of the reform of the educational system that took place in Poland in 1999, the enrolment ratio in vocational schools has fallen dramatically. The empirical evidence in the literature on the returns to vocational education is limited. This study fills that gap and looks into wage premium for workers with vocational education in Poland before and after the reform of the educational system. The relative returns to different types and levels of education were estimated using a standard Mincerian wage equation framework. The empirical analysis concentrated on a comparison of the relative benefits of vocational and non-vocational education. The results showed that vocational education graduates have, on average, a higher probability of finding a permanent job, and secondary-vocational education graduates receive higher earnings than secondary general education graduates in Poland. However, wages of vocational education graduates are lower than those of secondary general education. In spite of this, the decreasing number of vocational education graduates post-reform has contributed to reducing this gap. |
| Keywords: | educational economics, wages, wage differentials, returns to education, vocational education, general education, tertiary education, Poland |
| JEL: | I21 I26 J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2016 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:war:wpaper:2016-16&r=tra |
| By: | Xu, Kun; Cheng, Jian-hua; Xu, Wenli |
| Abstract: | Current and future inflation in China are both dominated by inflation expectation and inertia, but dramatic instability of inflation expectation put directly negative impact on effects from inflation management policies. This paper, by applying ARMA and GARCH models, studies dynamics of shocks from inflation and its expectation, and the empirical results indicate that: (1) rational expectation and inertia are separate factors influencing inflation, and disturbance on inflation shows persistent, cyclical and cyclical lag characteristics; (2) shocks from inflation expectation show persistence, and disturbance on inflation strengthens expectation oscillation; (3) the shocks exist asymmetry, which implies that people’s expectation is more sensitive to undervaluation of expectation instability. Policies suggestion from empirical results root that expectation leads are the limited approach for realizing inflation targets and inflation management policies must be prudent. |
| Keywords: | Inflation Persistence; Rational Expectation; Shocks On Expectation; Error Learning Mechanism |
| JEL: | E3 |
| Date: | 2016–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71977&r=tra |
| By: | Hana Dzmuranova (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University in Prague, Smetanovo nabrezi 6, 111 01 Prague 1, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we focus on the liquidity characteristics (stability and maturity) of retail deposits in the Czech Republic and changes in the structure of retail deposit products that occurred because of low interest-rate environment. Retail deposits are a primary source of funding for banks in the Czech Republic. In simplicity, we divide retail deposits into two main groups: (i) demand deposits are products with non-maturing features as maturity (timing of cash flows) is not known by a bank as a client can withdraw a deposit on notice while in reality deposits remain in a bank for a longer period; (ii) term deposits are products with maturing characteristics, i.e. a timing of cash flows is known. Bankers deem retail deposits as a largely stable and cheap funding source. Our research shows that demand deposits are a stable funding source with much higher maturity than term deposits. Moreover, we conclude that the transfer of term deposits to demand deposits that accelerated in recent years resulted from a low interest rate environment. This transfer implies increasing liquidity risk of the Czech banking sector. However, we argue that banks should be able to hedge this risk properly. |
| Keywords: | asset and liability management, demand deposits, term deposits, liquidity risk, interest rate sensitivity |
| JEL: | G21 C22 C53 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2016_10&r=tra |
| By: | Korytin, A.V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Shatalovà, Svetlana Sergeevna (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | The report presents the results of the search and analysis of the methods of the preferential property tax treatment as well as the recommendations on the practical implementation of the property tax world experience in Russia. This work research the international experience in this domain and analyze possible consequences of its adaptation based on the wide range of national datasets. |
| Keywords: | personal property, taxation, Russia |
| Date: | 2016–03–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:2334&r=tra |
| By: | Morgunov, V.I. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | In the modern world the most common method of monetary policy implementation is to control short-term money market interest rates. This paper discusses methodological and theoretical foundations of such policy, its instruments and procedures. The focus is on the method of monetary policy, that is called a symmetric interest rate corridor. The author investigates the role of open market operations and standing facilities, analyses the problem of forecasting the liquidity needs of the banking sector. The experience of the Bank of Russia in the management of short-term money market interest rates is analyzed on the base of modern theoretical concepts. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, short-term interest rates, money market, symmetric interest rate corridor |
| Date: | 2016–03–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:21311&r=tra |
| By: | Timilsina,Govinda R.; Jorgensen,Erika A. |
| Abstract: | Despite the declining trends in total energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, energy intensity, and emission intensity over the past two decades, Romania still emits more greenhouse gas per unit of output than many other members of the European Union. The country is looking for further greening of its energy supply system to achieve the clean energy and climate change mitigation goals included in the European Union's 2030 target and 2050 Roadmap. Using an energy supply optimization model, TIMES, this study develops energy supply mixes for Romania under a baseline scenario that satisfies the European Union's current energy and climate targets for 2020, a green scenario that satisfies the European Union's 2030 energy and climate targets, and a super green scenario that satisfies the European Union's prospective 2050 energy road map. The study finds that although Romania could achieve the green scenario at a moderate cost, it would be challenging and costly to achieve the super green scenario. |
| Date: | 2016–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7698&r=tra |
| By: | Malla,Sunil; Timilsina,Govinda R. |
| Abstract: | This study develops an end-use energy demand analysis model for Romania to project energy demand by sector and end-use for 2015-50. The study finds that Romania's energy demand in 2050 would be 34 percent higher than the level in 2013. The industry sector would be the largest final energy-consuming sector, surpassing the residential sector from 2025 onward. The services sector would exhibit the fastest growth of energy consumption in line with the expected structural change from manufacturing to services. Although population in the country is projected to drop by 7 percent in 2050 from the 2013 level, electricity demand would increase by 46 percent over the same period, because of increased household income and the expanded service sector, which is relatively electricity intensive. Still, per capita electricity consumption in Romania will be about half the European Union 28 average. At the end-use level, thermal processes in the industry sector, space heating in the residential and services sectors, and road transportation in the transport sector would be dominant throughout the study period. The study also shows that improvement of energy efficiency in the heating system would be the main channel to cut energy demand in the country. |
| Keywords: | Energy Demand,Climate Change Economics,Energy Production and Transportation,Energy and Environment,Transport Economics Policy&Planning |
| Date: | 2016–06–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7697&r=tra |
| By: | Zubarev, Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Nesterova, K.V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | This model works for six regions / countries. The immediate objective of this work is the construction and calibration of general economic equilibrium model based on Russia, in particular, changes in fiscal policy modeling. The resulting model will simulate the effect of fiscal policy on the economy of Russia and other countries / regions included in the model, as well as to understand how changes in fiscal policy will affect the growth of real wages, interest rates, and economic growth in the country over time. |
| Keywords: | general economic equilibrium model, fiscal policy, real wages, interest rates, economic growth |
| Date: | 2016–04–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:2046&r=tra |
| By: | Vashchelyuk, N.V. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Polbin, Andrey (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy); Trunin, Pavel (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The paper is devoted to identifying the shock of monetary policy and evaluating its impact on the main macroeconomic variables of the Russian economy with the help of the structural vector autoregression model. According to the results monetary policy shocks have a significant impact on the real sector of the Russian economy in the short term period and on the nominal variables (interest rates, price level, lending). Positive monetary policy shock leads to a temporary increase in output, the volume of lending, as well as to a reduction in nominal interest rates on loans. At the same time the contribution of monetary policy shocks to the variance of macroeconomic variables is small. |
| Keywords: | monetary policy, macroeconomic variables, Russian economy |
| Date: | 2016–03–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:2133&r=tra |
| By: | Gozgor, Giray; Can, Muhlis |
| Abstract: | This paper re-estimates the environmental Kuznets curve over the period 1971–2010 in China. To this end, it uses the unit root tests with one structural break and the autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL) estimations. The special role is given to the impacts of export product quality and energy consumption on CO2 emissions in the empirical models. The paper finds that the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis is valid in China. It also observes the positive effect from energy consumption to CO2 emissions. In addition, it finds that the export product quality is negatively associated with CO2 emissions. The paper also argues potential implications. |
| Keywords: | environmental Kuznets curve; energy consumption; export product quality; ARDL estimation; structural break |
| JEL: | C32 L15 O13 Q56 |
| Date: | 2016–06–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:71873&r=tra |
| By: | Malinina, Tatiana (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy) |
| Abstract: | The author analyses the Russian experience of the large-scale changes in tax legislation in the years 2010–2011 forming the basis for current tax regime for income from financial instruments in the context of neutrality and efficiency of the tax system. |
| Keywords: | Income taxation, Financial instruments, Tax neutrality, Tax efficiency |
| Date: | 2016–04–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:1445&r=tra |
| By: | Grishina, E. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Denisova, I.A. (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Dormidontova, Yulia (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Kazakova, Yuliya (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)); Lyashok, Victor (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA)) |
| Abstract: | According to Rosstat level of differentiation of wages workers' organizations has increased in the period from 2009 to 2013 from 6.7 to 7.1 times. Particularly noticeable growth in wage inequality has been in the areas of public administration and social security (from 4.6 in 2009 to 6.1 in 2013), and education (from 5.3 in 2009 to 6.5 in 2013 year). In this regard, of particular relevance is the analysis of the dynamics and factors of inequality of wages for different groups of workers. In this paper, an analysis of the dynamics of wage inequality for different groups of workers, as well as the assessment of the impact of various factors, including gender, age, education, qualification group, place of residence, the differentiation of the employee's salary. As a result of the factors influencing the differentiation of the employee's salary, formed the methodological approaches to the analysis of wage distributions in the labor markets. |
| Keywords: | differentiation of wages, wage inequality, employee's salary |
| Date: | 2016–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rnp:wpaper:3133&r=tra |
| By: | Rilind Kabashi (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia); Katerina Suleva (National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the effects of loan supply, as well as aggregate demand, aggregate supply and monetary policy shocks between 1998 and 2014 in Macedonia using a structural Vector Auto Regression with sign restrictions and Bayesian estimation. The main results indicate that loan supply shocks have no significant effect on loan volumes and lending rates, as well as on economic activity and prices. The effects of monetary policy on lending activity are fairly limited, although there is some evidence that it affects lending rates more than loan volumes. Monetary policy shocks have strong effects on inflation, while the central bank reacts strongly to adverse shocks hitting the economy. Baseline results are fairly robust to several extensions and robustness checks. According to historical decomposition, the lending activity was supporting economic growth before and during the crisis, but its contribution became negative during the recovery and it was a drag on growth until the end of the period. Pre-crisis GDP growth is mostly explained by the supportive interest rate of the main monetary policy instrument. However, the restrictive policy during the crisis for the purposes of maintaining monetary policy goals was associated with a fall in GDP, while the policy became supportive again during the early stages of the recovery. Policy rates in the recent years mostly reflect subdued lending activity and aggregate supply factors, which the central bank tries to counteract with a more accommodative policy. |
| Keywords: | loan supply, monetary policy, Bayesian VAR, sign restrictions, Macedonia |
| JEL: | C11 C32 E51 E52 |
| Date: | 2016–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mae:wpaper:2016-02&r=tra |