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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Laura Resmini (University of Valle d’Aosta, Aosta, and ISLA, University “Luigi Bocconi”, Milan, Italy); Iulia Siedschlag (Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI)) |
| Abstract: | We estimate an augmented gravity model to analyse the effects of FDI into China originating in OECD countries on FDI into EU and other countries over the period 1990-2004. Our results suggest that on average, ceteris paribus, over the analysed period, FDI inflows into China have been complementary to FDI inflows into EU15 countries but they have substituted FDI into the new EU countries in Central and Eastern Europe. In particular, small economies such as Bulgaria and the Baltic countries have been affected negatively by the surge in the FDI into China. This FDI diversion appears in the case of efficiency-seeking FDI. |
| Keywords: | Foreign direct investment, China, European Union |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esr:wpaper:wp231&r=tra |
| By: | Li, Jia |
| Abstract: | This study aims to shed light on the linkage between real side and financial side of Chinese economy. Utilizing a financial social accounting matrix (F-SAM) for China, 2002, newly constructed for this purpose, the current study provides a consistent accounting system for Chinese economy. The F-SAM allows a close examination on the structural characteristics of Chinese economy from the perspective of flows of funds. The study goes further to multiplier analysis. The main findings are: first, real side and financial side of Chinese economy are intertwined with each other; secondly, the development of a modern financial system contributes to the growth of Chinese economy; thirdly, financial sector, in place of government, has come to play a central role in resource mobilization and allocation, although government maintains interventions through capital transfer to non-financial enterprises; fourthly, bank deposits and loans are single significant financial instruments in China’s resources mobilization and allocation processes. |
| Keywords: | financial social accounting matrix; China; multiplier analysis |
| JEL: | C63 C02 P34 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:8174&r=tra |
| By: | Dohmen, Thomas (ROA, Maastricht University); Lehmann, Hartmut (University of Bologna); Zaiceva, Anzelika (IZA) |
| Abstract: | Using unique personnel data from one Russian firm for the years 1997 to 2002 we study the size, development and determinants of the gender earnings gap in an internal labor market during late transition. The gap is sizable but declines strongly over the entire period. Gender earnings differentials are largest for production workers who constitute the largest employee group in the firm. Various decompositions show that these differentials and their dynamics remain largely unexplained by observable characteristics at the mean and across the wage distribution. Our analysis also reveals that the earnings differentials for production workers largely stem from job assignment, as women are predominately assigned to lower paid jobs. Earnings gaps within job levels are small and almost fully explained by observed characteristics. |
| Keywords: | gender earnings gap, personnel data, internal labor market, Russia |
| JEL: | J16 M52 P23 |
| Date: | 2008–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3428&r=tra |
| By: | Chun- Yu Ho (Department of Economics, Boston University); Dan Li (Department of Economics, Boston University) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the distribution dynamics of city income and size in China during 1984-2003 using stochastic kernel. Our results show that intra-distribution mobility are significant in both income and size and provide evidences on China experienced internal brain drain. |
| Keywords: | City Income, City Size, Distribution Dynamics, Kernel Density, China |
| JEL: | O15 O18 R11 |
| Date: | 2007–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bos:wpaper:wp2007-040&r=tra |
| By: | Berkman, Henk; Cole, Rebel; Fu , Lawrence |
| Abstract: | We examine changes in market values and accounting returns for a sample of publicly traded Chinese firms around announcements of block-share transfers among government agencies (“State Bureaucrats”), market-oriented State-owned enterprises (“MOSOEs”) and private investors (“Private Entities”). We provide evidence that transfers from State Bureaucrats to Private Entities result in larger increases in market value and accounting returns than transfers to MOSOEs. We also find that CEO turnover occurs more quickly when shares are transferred to Private Entities. Moreover, we find that the changes in firm value and accounting returns, as well as the likelihood of CEO turnover, are all functions of the incentives and managerial expertise of the new block holder. We conclude that corporate governance can be improved at State-controlled firms by improving the incentives and managerial expertise of controlling block holders, and that this is better accomplished by transferring ownership to private investors rather than by shuffling ownership among Statecontrolled entities. |
| Keywords: | block-holder identity; China; partial corporate control; partial privatization; privatization; State ownership; SOE. |
| JEL: | G38 G34 G32 |
| Date: | 2007–10–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:8088&r=tra |
| By: | Babecký, Jan (Czech National Bank ; CES, University of Paris-1 Sorbonne and CERGE-EI, Charles University); Komárek, Luboš (Czech National Bank ; Prague School of Economics); Komárková, Zlatuše (Czech National Bank) |
| Abstract: | The paper considers the empirical dimension of financial integration among stock markets in four new European Union member states (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) in comparison with the euro area. The main objective is to test for the existence and determine the degree of the four states’ financial integration relative to the euro currency union. The analysis is performed at the country level (using national stock exchange indices) and at the sectoral level (considering banking, chemical, electricity and telecommunication indices). Our empirical evaluation consists of (1) an analysis of alignment (by means of standard and rolling correlation analysis) to outline the overall pattern of integration; (2) the application of the concept of beta convergence (through the use of time series, panel and state-space techniques) to identify the speed of integration; and (3) the application of so-called sigma convergence to measure the degree of integration. We find evidence of stock market integration on both the national and sectoral levels between the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and the euro area |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:849&r=tra |
| By: | Kahanec, Martin (IZA); Zaiceva, Anzelika (IZA) |
| Abstract: | The starkly different histories and institutions in the eastern and western member states of the European Union (EU) suggest different roles of being non-native in these two regions. In this paper we study the roles of foreign origin and citizenship in the comparative East-West perspective. Our results indicate that while it is immigrant status that is of key importance in the western EU member states, both immigrant status and citizenship matter in the eastern EU member states, their roles depending on gender. We find some evidence that it is the Russian ethnic minority in Estonia and Latvia that drives the relationships between being non-citizen and labor market outcomes that we find in the eastern EU member states. |
| Keywords: | immigrant, citizenship, earnings, employment, labor market, Eastern Europe |
| JEL: | F22 J15 J61 J71 |
| Date: | 2008–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3420&r=tra |
| By: | Judith Banister (The Conference Board) |
| Abstract: | China is now the global manufacturing workshop. There is strong interest throughout the world in understanding what makes China so competitive in manufacturing. Clearly one component of that competitiveness is the low cost of labor in China’s manufacturing sector. This report analyzes and evaluates the most complete recent data on China manufacturing employment and labor compensation, which come from China’s First National Economic Census. |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnf:wpaper:0701&r=tra |
| By: | Berkman, Henk; Cole, Rebel; Fu, Lawrence |
| Abstract: | We examine the wealth effects of three regulatory changes designed to improve minorityshareholder protection in the Chinese stock markets. Using the value of a firm’s related-party transactions as an inverse proxy for the quality of corporate governance, we find that firms with weaker governance experienced significantly larger abnormal returns around announcements of the new regulations than did firms with stronger governance. This evidence indicates that securities-market regulation can be effective in protecting minority shareholders from expropriation in a country with weak judicial enforcement. We also find that firms with strong ties to the government did not benefit from the new regulations, suggesting that minority shareholders did not expect regulators to enforce the new rules on firms where block holders have strong political connections. |
| Keywords: | China; convergence; enforcement; expropriation; political connections; investor protection; minority shareholder; regulation; tunneling |
| JEL: | G38 G34 G32 |
| Date: | 2008–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:8087&r=tra |
| By: | Burja , Camelia; Burja, Vasile |
| Abstract: | One of the major objectives of the Common Agricultural Policy is the sustainable development of the agricultural sector and of the rural area. Romania, as a country recent integrated in the European Union, has to pass an adapting process to the CAP, in order to achieve sustainable farming development. The analysis presented in the paper refers to the actual development stage of the sustainable agriculture in Romania and demonstrates the important efforts made on this line, also the very necessary actions for implementing the sustainable development strategy of the rural economy. Realizing this objective is a real chance for Romanian agriculture in order to increase the competitiveness on the EU market, valorizing in this manner its agricultural potential. |
| Keywords: | rural economy; sustainable development; European agricultural policy; efficiency; farming strategy |
| JEL: | O11 Q1 O1 Q0 O13 Q01 Q18 |
| Date: | 2008–03–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:7989&r=tra |
| By: | Koivu, Tuuli (BOFIT) |
| Abstract: | Chinese authorities have traditionally relied mainly on administrative and quantitative measures in conducting monetary policy, with interest rates playing a less prominent role. Additional support for this view resides in a number of earlier studies that have found that the impact of interest rates on the real economy has been miniscule. However, taking into account numerous reforms in the financial sector and more widely in the Chinese economy, interest rates may have gained some influence in the last few years. It is important to study the effectiveness of interest rates also in light of future reforms of the monetary policy tools in China. Whereas administrative policy measures were effective in guiding the behaviour of state-owned enterprises, the authorities may need to increase the use of more market-oriented monetary policy tools as the share of the economy in private and foreign ownership grows. We use a vector error correction model to study, within a credit demand framework, whether the impact of interest rates in China has become stronger over the last decade. Our results suggest that loan demand has indeed become more dependent on interest rates, albeit the channel from interest rate to the real economy is still weak. |
| Keywords: | China; monetary policy |
| JEL: | E52 P24 |
| Date: | 2008–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bofitp:2008_001&r=tra |
| By: | Irena Grosfeld; Claudia Senik |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an illustration of the changing tolerance for inequality in a context of radical political and economic transformation and rapid economic growth. We focus on the Polish experience of transition and explore self-declared attitudes of the citizens. Using monthly representative surveys of the population, realized by the Polish poll institute (CBOS) from 1992 to 2005, we identify a structural break in the relation between income inequality and subjective evaluation of well-being. The downturn in the tolerance for inequality (1997) coincides with the rise in distrust of political elites. |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pse:psecon:2008-19&r=tra |
| By: | Haiyan Deng (The Conference Board); Robert H. McGuckin (The Conference Board); John C. Haltiwanger (University of Maryland); Xu Jianyi (NBS); Liu Yaodong (NBS); Liu Yuqi (NBS) |
| Abstract: | China has exhibited very rapid measured aggregate productivity growth. At the same time, the structure of its markets and the structure of businesses have been changing at an equally rapid rate. In this paper, we measure the extent of restructuring and the reallocation of resources (including the reallocation of jobs) and then quantify the contribution of the reallocation and restructuring to the aggregate productivity growth of China's industrial structure. Our gross job flow analysis illustrates that reallocation and restructuring took many forms including shedding of jobs by government controlled enterprises and the increasing share of employment for FDI joint ventures. However, the analysis shows that it is not just shifts between firm types that are important but also reallocation and restructuring within firm types. For example, we find a high pace of job reallocation within SOEs and FDI joint ventures over and above what is needed to accommodate the net changes for these firm types (as high as 28 and 22 percent, respectively). We find evidence that the restructuring and reallocation contributed significantly to the high productivity growth. For example, our analysis shows that more than half of the labor productivity growth in 2001 is due to reallocation and restructuring. In that year, the industrial sector exhibited a labor productivity growth rate of around 22 percent which in the absence of reallocation and restructuring would have been around 10 percent. |
| Date: | 2007–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cnf:wpaper:0704&r=tra |
| By: | Kari E.O. Alho |
| Abstract: | ABSTRACT : Russia prices its energy commodities domestically much lower than the prices prevailing in the international market. Using a general equilibrium framework, we analyse reasons for why Russia should or should not use such a price regulation. First, being a major exporter of energy commodities and having considerable monopolistic market power, the country is able to use its supply in order to influence the international energy prices. A rational way to channel this rent to the domestic non-energy sector and to domestic consumers is through a lower, i.e., competitive, domestic price on energy than that in the world market. Second, we introduce the classic infant-industry argument with positive intertemporal spillovers through learning-by-doing linked to current production. These spill-overs are likely to be relevant for manufacturing in a transition economy, which argument creates a further reason for a deviation in the pricing of energy to domestic industrial producers from the world market prices. However, an empirical consideration of these results and the estimation of the learning-by-doing curve suggest that the first effect can in principle be sizeable, while the second is only marginal and that, overall, Russia is currently subsidising its domestic energy prices clearly too much. Further, we conclude that the country should not subsidise its domestic consumers more than its domestic industry, as it does in reality. We also derive the optimal domestic energy tax and show that it is modest in comparison to its current rate. The optimal pricing policy could therefore have a marked positive effect on the international supply of energy by Russia. |
| Keywords: | energy, Russia, international and domestic prices |
| Date: | 2008–03–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rif:dpaper:1128&r=tra |
| By: | Stephan, Andreas (CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies, Royal Institute of Technology); Talavera, Oleksandr (Aberdeen Business School); Tsapin, Andriy (European University Viadrina) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the determinants of liability maturity choice in transition markets. We formulate a model of ¯rm value maximization that describes managers' choice of optimal debt structure. The theoretical predictions are tested using a unique panel of 4,300 Ukrainian firms during the period 2000-2005. Our estimates confirm the importance of liquidity, signaling, maturity matching, and agency costs for the liability term structure of firm operating in a transition economy. In addition, we find that companies do not react uniformly to determinants of debt maturity. Firms that mainly rely on external funds are sensitive to signaling and they consider the variability of firm value an important determinant of their debt maturity choice. For less constrained companies that rely more on internal funding, asset maturity is an essential determinant of debt structure. |
| Keywords: | debt maturity; capital structure; transition period; Ukraine |
| JEL: | D24 G30 G32 |
| Date: | 2008–04–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cesisp:0125&r=tra |
| By: | Sylvie Démurger; Marc Gurgand; Li Shi; Yue Ximing |
| Abstract: | In urban China, urban resident annual earnings are 1.3 times larger than long term rural migrant earnings as observed in a nationally representative sample in 2002. Using microsimulation, we decompose this difference into four sources, with particular attention to path dependence and statistical distribution of the estimated effects: (1) different allocation to sectors that pay different wages (sectoral effect); (2) hourly wage disparities across the two populations within sectors (wage effect); (3) different working times within sectors (hours effect); (4) different population structures (population effect). Although sector allocation is extremely contrasted, with very few migrants in the public sector and very few urban residents working as self-employed, this has no clear impact on differential earnings. Indeed, the sectoral effect is not robust to the path followed for the decomposition. We show that the migrant population has a comparative advantage in the private sector: increasing its participation into the public sector would not necessarily improve its average earnings. The second main finding is that the population effect is robust and significantly more important than wage or hours effects. This implies that the main source of disparity between the two populations is pre-market (education opportunities) rather than on-market. |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pse:psecon:2008-20&r=tra |
| By: | Peter Huber (WIFO) |
| Abstract: | We characterise regional labour market problems in the EU 27 using disaggregate data on regional employment, unemployment and participation rates, by gender and 10-year age groups at the NUTS-2 level. We ask whether accession changed disparities in regional labour market conditions and to what degree the structure of employment, unemployment and participation rates in the 12 new member countries differs from the EU 15. We find that aggregate labour market disparities are comparable between the two country groups but that there are important structural differences. Performing a principle components analysis we find that five principal components (four of which are associated with the structure of employment and participations rates) explain around 90 percent of the variance in the data. Cluster analysis suggests that new member countries regions are most similar in structural labour market characteristics to many German and French NUTS-2 regions. Regression analysis suggests that the correlates of aggregate regional employment and unemployment rates between the two groups do not differ dramatically but that there may be some differences with respect to employment rates of individual demographic groups. |
| Keywords: | Regional labour market disparities |
| Date: | 2008–02–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wfo:wpaper:y:2008:i:309&r=tra |
| By: | Gabriele, Alberto; Schettino, Francesco |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that, during the present historical period, only one mode of production is sustainable, which we call the modern mode of production (MMP). Nevertheless, there can be (both in theory and in practice) enough differences among the specific forms of MMP prevailing in different countries as to justify the identification of distinct socioeconomic formations, one of them being market socialism (MS). In its present stage of evolution, MS in China and Vietnam allows for a rapid development of productive forces, but it is seriously flawed from other points of view. We argue that the development of a radically reformed and improved form of MS is far from being an inevitable historical necessity, but constitutes a theoretically plausible and auspicable possibility |
| Keywords: | Socialism, Mode of Production, Market Socialism |
| JEL: | P11 P36 |
| Date: | 2007–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:7941&r=tra |
| By: | Rod Tyers; Iain Bain |
| Abstract: | With exports almost half of its GDP and most of these directed to Europe and North America, negative financial shocks in those regions might be expected to retard China's growth. Yet mitigating factors include the temporary flight of North American and European savings into Chinese investment and some associated real exchange rate realignments. These issues are explored using a dynamic model of the global economy. A rise in American and European financial intermediation costs is shown to retard neither China's GDP nor its import growth in the short run. Should the Chinese government act to prevent the effects of the investment surge, through tighter inward capital controls or increased reserve accumulation, the associated losses would be compensated by a trade advantage since its real exchange rate would appreciate less against North America than those of other trading partners. The results therefore suggest that, so long as the financial shocks are restricted to North America and Western Europe, China's growth and the imports on which its trading partners rely are unlikely to be significantly hindered. |
| JEL: | C68 E17 F21 F17 F43 F47 O5 |
| Date: | 2008–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2008-491&r=tra |
| By: | Pasquale Tridico (Università degli Studi Roma Tre, Dipartimento di Economia) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims first of all to explore the social sustainability and the quality of economic growth in a sample of 50 Emerging and Transition Economies (ETEs), which are countries experiencing a process of fast growth and institutional change in most cases. Through a series of cross-country regressions, using OLS models, the paper assesses the type of development in those countries. Economic growth during 1995-2006 is regressed against poverty, inequality and human development variables. The main findings are that growth did not reduce poverty and that income inequality, measured as a reduction of Gini coefficient between the years 1993-2004, worsened too. From one side, economic growth in ETEs occurred despite the worsening of income inequality. However, this result does not identify a “U-shaped” Kuznets curve because even after a consistent period of economic growth, inequality did not decrease and it remained at higher levels. Only countries with higher education levels and public expenditure in strategic dimensions seem to escape from this trap. On the other side, economic growth occurred at the expense of an important human development variable i.e., life expectancy, and at the expense an important indicator of political democracy, i.e., Voice and Accountability. |
| Keywords: | development, inequality, poverty, institutions |
| JEL: | O10 O15 I32 P52 |
| Date: | 2008 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2008_01&r=tra |
| By: | Soultanaeva, Albina (Department of Economics, Umeå University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the link between political news releases, and the returns and volatilities in the stock markets of Riga, Tallinn and Vilnius. Political news releases are viewed as proxies for political risk. The results indicate that political news events regarding domestic and foreign, excluding Russia, political issues led, on average, to lower uncertainty in the stock markets of Riga and Tallinn in 2001-2003. At the same time, political risk from Russia increased the volatility of the stock market in Tallinn. We found that there is only a weak relationship between political risks of different origins and the stock market volatility in the Baltic states in 2004-2007. In addition, we found a significant Monday effect, consistent with the trading behavior of institutional investors. |
| Keywords: | Public information arrival; political risk; volatility; multivariate GARCH |
| JEL: | C32 G10 G14 G15 |
| Date: | 2008–03–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:umnees:0735&r=tra |
| By: | Goncharuk, Anatoliy G. |
| Abstract: | The paper states empirical results of inter-branch research of efficiency of the industry of Ukraine as the first and one of the basic stages of the three-level analysis of efficiency (Goncharuk 2007). By results of the analysis groups of high, low and medium efficient industries are determined. Dynamics of efficiency and impact of major factors on it are revealed. |
| Keywords: | industry; factors; super-efficiency; Data envelopment analysis; Ukraine |
| JEL: | C14 D24 L60 |
| Date: | 2008–03–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:8010&r=tra |
| By: | Olenev, Nicholas; Petrov, Alexander; Shatrov, Anatoly |
| Abstract: | A normative balance mathematical model for regional economy contains a lot of unspecified parameters which are not defined directly by the data of economic statistics. Only confidence intervals for the unknown parameters can be computed from the statistical data. A method for estimation of the model parameters by application of parallel computations on multi-processors systems are presented here. They determine the unknown parameters of economic model by indirect way, comparing time series for macro indexes calculated by model with statistical time series for these indexes. The use of the method is illustrated by the parameter estimation of a macroeconomic model of Kirov Region of Russia for 2000-2006. Production sectors in the regional economic model are presented by three sectors: (X) the timber industry complex including forestry; (Y) a complex of new innovation industries in biotechnology and the chemistry, including science and education; (Z) combination of the remained industries. The each production sector shadow money stock grows due to sale of shadow final product to households and as intermediate product to other sectors. The simulation model of regional economy enables to receive a quantitative estimation of dynamics of macroindexes for regional economy. Calibrated model is used for estimation of the Regional Government economic politics and for research of bio-technology sector impact on Kirov Region economy. The model constructed here is an innovative product and the experience received on its parameter estimation is those "know-how" which can be used in the adaptation of the given model for concrete regional economic systems. The work is in part supported by the Russian Humanitarian Scientific Foundation (Grant 06-02-91821); by the Russian Foundation of Basic Research (Grant 08-01-00377); by the Program of State Support of Leading Scientific Schools (Grant SS- 2982.2008.1); and by the Program of Basic Research no.15 of Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences. |
| Keywords: | Динамическая балансовая модель; региональная экономика; влияние сектора биотехнологий |
| JEL: | O18 C02 C01 |
| Date: | 2008–03–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:8015&r=tra |
| By: | Ecobici, N |
| Abstract: | As from 1 January 2007 the European Directives are transposed into the national legislation and the European Regulations are truthfully applicable. In the VAT field, the European Directives, as well as the Jurisprudence of the European Court of Justice were transposed into the Fiscal Code, Title VI. Since the accession date, the legislation in the VAT field is repealed and replaced with the legislation harmonized with the Community acquis. The elimination of customs barriers between the 27 Member States of the European Union brings news as concerns the application of the "reverse charge" procedure that is applied in Romania as from the year 2005 for residue transactions and transactions with ferrous and non-ferrous metal waste, with grounds or buildings or building parts or living animals among VAT payers. Thus, starting with1 January 2007, the reverse charge is binding and applicable to all intra-Community acquisitions. At the same time the reverse charge was also applied for imports until 15 April 2007. In this paper I shall present aspects concerning the history of reverse charge in our country, accounting of operations and advantages and disadvantages of application of this procedure in the context of accession to the European Union. |
| Keywords: | Reverse charge; VAT; intra Community acquisitions; Fiscal Code; and imports |
| JEL: | M41 |
| Date: | 2007–10–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:8012&r=tra |
| By: | Rafal Kierzenkowski; Patrice Ollivaud; Franck Sédillot; Philippe Briard |
| Abstract: | The supply-side framework and related measures of output and unemployment gaps play a leading role in the OECD analysis of short-term conjunctural conditions and long-term determinants of growth. To allow such diagnoses for Poland, this paper develops a comprehensive supply block in accordance with the OECD approach. The structural unemployment rate is derived from a Phillips-curve equation and, along with working age population, is combined with filter-based estimates of trend labour productivity, participation rates and hours worked per employee to generate measures of potential output. The performance of the model in capturing price pressures underlying the growth trajectory of the Polish economy is assessed, and measures of cyclically-adjusted general government net lending are provided. Based on the OECD autumn 2007 projections for 2008 and 2009, out-of-sample simulations derived from the Phillips-curve model suggest that CPI inflation is likely to continue to trend upward, exceeding the central bank?s inflation target by a wide margin. <P>Estimation du bloc offre pour la Pologne <BR>Le bloc d'offre et les mesures associées d'écarts de production et de taux de chômage jouent un rôle de premier plan dans l'analyse des conditions conjoncturelles à court terme et des déterminants de la croissance à long terme faite par l'OCDE. Afin de permettre de tels diagnostics pour la Pologne, cette étude développe un bloc d'offre détaillé selon l'approche de l'OCDE. Le taux de chômage structurel est déduit à partir d'une équation de type Phillips et, conjointement avec la population en âge de travailler, est combiné à des estimations tendancielles de productivité du travail, de taux de participation et des heures travaillées par employé pour donner lieu à une mesure du niveau de production potentiel. La performance du modèle pour rendre compte des pressions de prix sous-jacentes à la trajectoire de croissance de l'économie polonaise est évaluée, et les mesures du déficit budgétaire ajusté du cycle sont fournies. Sur la base des projections de l'OCDE pour les années 2008 et 2009 réalisées à l'automne 2007, des simulations hors échantillon déduites à partir du modèle de la courbe de Phillips mettent en évidence que, selon toute vraisemblance, l'inflation IPC poursuivra sa tendance haussière, dépassant la cible d'inflation de la banque centrale de façon significative. |
| Keywords: | OECD, transition economies, OCDE, Poland, Pologne, économie en transition, production function, potential output, medium-term projections, macroeconomic modelling, modélisation macroéconomique, fonction de production, production potentielle, projections de moyen terme |
| JEL: | C53 E22 E23 E27 E52 P24 |
| Date: | 2008–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:601-en&r=tra |
| By: | Afeikhena Jerome |
| Abstract: | Despite an impressive level of privatization activity across Africa and the upsurge in research on the operating performance of privatized firms in both developed and developing economies, our empirical knowledge of the privatization programme in Africa is limited. This study appraises the post-privatization performance of some privatized enterprises in Nigeria. The specific indicators examined are profitability, productive efficiency, employment, capital investment, output, prices and taxes. The study measures the change in any given indicator of performance by comparing its average value five years before and five years after privatization. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) is also deployed to assess changes in the level of technical efficiency in the selected enterprises. The results, albeit mixed, show significant increases in these indicators. Privatization is also associated with increase in technical efficiency in the affected enterprises. Reduction of politically motivated resource allocation has unquestionably been the principal benefit of privatization in Nigeria. |
| Date: | 2008–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:rpaper:rp_175&r=tra |