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on Transition Economics |
| By: | Jan M. Hoem (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Aiva Jasilioniene (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Dora Kostova (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany); Cornelia Muresan (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany) |
| Abstract: | Using data from the first round of the national Gender and Generations Surveys of Russia, Romania, and Bulgaria, and from a similar survey for Hungary, we study rates of entry into marital and non-marital unions and display manifestations of the Second Demographic Transition in these data. The transition did not start simultaneously in all countries, and above all it began well before the fall of communism and before the societal transition to a market economy got underway around 1990. Bulgaria is a special case whose trends need more attention than those of the other countries. |
| Keywords: | Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, Russia, cohabitation, demographic transition, first marriage |
| JEL: | J1 Z0 |
| Date: | 2007–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2007-026&r=tra |
| By: | Chun- Yu Ho (Department of Economics, Boston University); Dan Li (Department of Economics, Boston University) |
| Abstract: | Abstract. Regional inequality is severe in China since regional development is uneven due to various initial conditions and government policies. We employ unit root tests allowing for structural breaks to alternative inequality measures from 1952 to 2000. Empirical results indicate that (1) the regional inequality is trend stationary with structural breaks rather than follow a random walk. Thus, ignoring structural changes might induce incorrect inference and misleading policy implications; (2) the break points are associated with episodic events in Chinese economic history such as the Cultural Revolution and market reforms. It implies that the policies had a long-lasting and fundamental effect on the inequality. |
| Keywords: | Structural break; unit root; inequality; China |
| JEL: | C22 O15 R58 |
| Date: | 2007–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bos:wpaper:wp2007-014&r=tra |
| By: | Chun-Yu Ho (Department of Economics, Boston University); Dan Li (Department of Economics, Boston University) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the evolution of Chinese urban income distribution across space and time in post-reform era. Our results suggest no evidence on income convergence across cities during the period 1984-2003. We find that cities with comparable income level are likely to be co-located in the same region; further, cities tend to mirror the mobility of their counterparts located in the same province, but not the same region. The divergence in urban income across the nation will continue if the current economic growth pattern persists in the future. |
| Keywords: | City Income Distribution; Convergence; Markov Process; Spatial Dependence; China |
| JEL: | O15 O18 R12 R58 |
| Date: | 2007–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bos:wpaper:wp2007-23&r=tra |
| By: | Rod Tyers; Jane Golley; Iain Bain |
| Abstract: | International pressure to revalue China’s currency stems in part from the expectation that rapid economic growth should be associated with a real exchange rate appreciation. This hinges on the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis under which economic growth, stemming from improvements in traded sector productivity, causes non-traded prices to rise. The puzzle is that, while evidence on China’s productivity and prices supports this hypothesis, its real exchange rate has shown no long run tendency to appreciate. Resolution requires extension of the hypothesis to allow for effects on the real exchange rate due to non-traded productivity improvements or, in association with failures of the law of one price for traded goods, labour supply growth and growth-related demand switches due to changes in financial capital flows and trade distortions. The sensitivity of China’s real exchange rate to these determinants is reviewed with the results confirming that financial and capital outflows are dominant depreciating forces in the short run. Along with WTO accession trade reforms, it is shown that the heretofore rising surplus of Chinese domestic saving over its investment has restrained the real exchange rate from appreciating since the late 1990s. |
| JEL: | C68 C53 E27 F21 F43 F47 O11 |
| Date: | 2007–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:acb:camaaa:2007-14&r=tra |
| By: | Astrid Cullmann; Christian von Hirschhausen |
| Abstract: | In this paper we test the hypothesis that the economic transition toward a market economy increases the efficiency of firms. We study 32 Polish electricity distribution companies between 1997-2002, by applying common benchmarking methods to the panel: the nonparametric data envelopment analysis (DEA), the free disposal hull (FDH), and, as a parametric approach, the stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). We then measure and decompose productivity change with Malmquist indices. We find that the technical efficiency of the companies has indeed increased during the transition, while allocative efficiency has deteriorated. We also find significantly increasing returns to scale, suggesting that the regulatory authority should allow companies to merge into larger units. |
| Keywords: | Efficiency analysis, electricity distribution, transition, econometric methods, Poland, DEA, SFA |
| JEL: | P31 L51 L43 C1 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp716&r=tra |
| By: | Rod Tyers; Jane Golley |
| Abstract: | International pressure to revalue China’s currency stems in part from the expectation that rapid economic growth should be associated with a real exchange rate appreciation. This hinges on the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis under which economic growth, stemming from improvements in traded sector productivity, causes non-traded prices to rise. More generally, real depreciations can stem from non-traded productivity improvements or, in association with failures of the law of one price for traded goods, labour supply growth and growth-related demand switches due to changes in the saving rate, trade distortions or investment risk premia. This chapter examines the sensitivity of China’s real exchange rate to these determinants. The results confirm that financial capital inflows are a dominant appreciating force in the short run, helping to explain why it is the surplus of Chinese domestic saving over its investment that has restrained the real exchange rate from appreciating during the past decade. In the long term, the appreciating effect of the inevitable fall in the saving rate is likely to be at least partially offset by the depreciating effects of skill acquisition and services productivity growth. Indeed, if future Chinese growth is propelled by these factors, a long term real depreciating trend could be in store. |
| JEL: | C68 C53 E27 F21 F43 F47 J11 J13 J26 O11 |
| Date: | 2007–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:acb:cbeeco:2007-479&r=tra |
| By: | Van Horen, Neeltje |
| Abstract: | Statistics show that the sale of goods on credit is widespread among firms even when they are capital constrained and thus face relatively high costs in providing trade credit. This study provides an explanation for this by arguing that customers who possess strong market power are able to increase their customer surplus by demanding to purchase the goods on credit. This gain in customer surplus increases with the degree of asymmetric information between buyer and seller with respect to product quality. Therefore, firms that are perceived as risky are especially subject to the market power of the customer and have to sell their goods on credit. Using detailed firm-level data from a large number of firms in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, this study finds evidence consistent with this hypothesis. It finds a strong positive correlation between customer market power and trade credit provision. Furthermore, this relationship is especially strong when the supplier is more risky and in countries with limited financial sector development or a weak legal system. |
| Keywords: | Economic Theory & Research,Markets and Market Access,Investment and Investment Climate,Financial Intermediation,Access to Markets |
| Date: | 2007–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4284&r=tra |
| By: | Chang-Tai Hsieh; Peter J. Klenow |
| Abstract: | Resource misallocation can lower aggregate total factor productivity (TFP). We use micro data on manufacturing establishments to quantify the extent of this misallocation in China and India compared to the U.S. in recent years. Compared to the U.S., we measure sizable gaps in marginal products of labor and capital across plants within narrowly-defined industries in China and India. When capital and labor are hypothetically reallocated to equalize marginal products to the extent observed in the U.S., we calculate manufacturing TFP gains of 25-40% in China and 50-60% in India. |
| JEL: | O11 O47 O53 |
| Date: | 2007–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13290&r=tra |
| By: | Ravallion, Martin |
| Abstract: | The central governments of many developing countries have chosen to decentralize their anti-poverty programs, in the expectation that local a gents are better informed about local needs. The paper shows that this potential advantage of decentralized eligibility criteria can come at a large cost, to the extent that the induced geographic inequities undermine performance in reaching the income- poor nationally. These issues are studied empirically for (probably) the largest transfer-based poverty program in the world, namely China ' s Di Bao program, which aims to assure a minimum income through means-tested transfers. Poor municipalities are found to adopt systematically lower eligibility thresholds, reducing the program ' s ability to reach poor areas, and generating considerable horizontal inequity. |
| Keywords: | Inequality,Services & Transfers to Poor,Poverty Monitoring & Analysis,,Economic Theory & Research |
| Date: | 2007–08–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4303&r=tra |
| By: | Sirtaine, Sophie; Skamnelos, Ilias |
| Abstract: | High credit growth in Emerging Europe, generally considered a sign of catching-up with the " old " Europe, has begun receiving considerable attention among investors and policymakers alike. Given heightened global risks and the demands under the European Union accession process, the need to better understand this high credit growth ' s drivers, riskiness, and the possible macroeconomic and financial stability consequences is strong. The authors adopt a holistic approach in reviewing the rapid credit growth experienced in the region, examining macroeconomic, financial sector, corporate sector, and asset market consequences and possible vulnerabilities. They consider three possible scenarios-a catching-up with older European countries, a soft landing as experienced by Portugal in the early 2000s, and a hard landing as experienced by Asia in 1997. |
| Keywords: | Banks & Banking Reform,Financial Intermediation,Financial Crisis Management & Restructuring,Economic Theory & Research,Investment and Investment Climate |
| Date: | 2007–07–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:4281&r=tra |