| Abstract: |
This paper uses world records by age in running, swimming, and rowing to
estimate a biological frontier of decline rates for both men and women.
Decline rates are assumed to be linear in percent terms up to a certain age
and then quadratic after that, where the transition age is estimated. For both
men and women decline rates are smallest for rowing, followed by swimming and
then running. Decline rates for women are roughly the same as those for men
for the short swimming events. They are slightly larger for the longer
swimming events and for the rowing events. They are largest for running, more
so for the longer events than the shorter ones. The age at which there is a 50
percent decline from age 40 ranges from 70 to 90, an optimistic result for
humans. The estimated decline rates can be used by non physically elite people
under the assumption that their decline rates in percentage terms are similar
to those of the elite athletes. |