| Abstract: |
The Summer Olympic Games are the most globalized sporting event on earth.
Until now, the Summer Games had been postponed only three times—in 1916,
1940, and 1944—all because of world wars. So, the announcement that in
response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 Tokyo Games would be postponed by
a year is significant, implicit testimony to the destructiveness of the
pandemic. The Tokyo Games were expected to continue the evolution of the Games
away from the aristocratic European milieu where the modern Olympic movement
began. As poverty has declined and incomes across the global economy have
converged, participation in the Games has broadened and the pattern of
medaling has become more pluralistic, particularly in sports with low barriers
to entry in terms of facilities and equipment. This Policy Brief presents
forecasts of medal counts at the 2020 Tokyo Summer Games had they had gone on
as scheduled, setting aside possible complications arising from the
coronavirus pandemic. The forecasts are not just a depiction of what might
have been. They establish a benchmark that can be used when the Games are
eventually held, to examine the impact of the uneven incidence of the pandemic
globally. |