| Abstract: |
College football fans, coaches, and observers have adopted a set of beliefs
about how college football poll voters behave. I document three pieces of
conventional wisdom in college football regarding the timing of wins and
losses, the value of playing strong opponents, and the value of winning by
wide margins. Using a unique data set with 25 years of AP poll results, I test
college football's conventional wisdom. In particular, I test (1) whether it
is better to lose early or late in the season, (2) whether teams benefit from
playing stronger opponents, and (3) whether teams are rewarded for winning by
large margins. Contrary to conventional wisdom, I find that (1) it is better
to lose later in the season than earlier, (2) AP voters do not pay attention
to the strength of a defeated opponent, and (3) the benefit of winning by a
large margin is negligible. I conclude by noting how these results inform
debates about a potential playoff in college football. |