|
on South East Asia |
| By: | William Hutchins Seitz; Imam Setiawan |
| Abstract: | Sekitar 27.000 penduduk Indonesia meninggal dikaibatkan oleh keracunan timbal pada 2019. Dimana tidak terdapatrnya peraturan yang meajibkan produk bebas timbal, seperti halnya di Indonesia, maka cat yang mengandung timbal adalah satu sumber keracunan yang umum. Tes timbal dalam cat interior yang dilakukan pada sampel rumah tangga yang representatif secara nasional pada Desember 2023 menemukan bahwa setidaknya 44, 8 persen orang Indonesia tinggal di rumah dengan cat timbal, meningkat menjadi setidaknya 57, 9 persen di antara mereka yang tinggal di rumah dengan cat interior apapun yang terlihat. Anak-anak Indonesia memiliki tingkat risiko yang lebih tinggi daripada orang dewasa, dengan sekitar 46 persen anak berusia lima tahun atau lebih muda—atau sekitar 10, 2 juta anak-anak—tinggal di rumah dengan cat timbal. Cat dalam kondisi yang buruk (mengelupas parah) meningkatkan paparan timbal secara signifikan pada 14, 1 persen anak-anak berusia lima tahun atau lebih muda, dimana 40 persen penduduk termiskin memiliki lebih dari dua kali kemungkinan untuk berada dalam rumah dengan konsidi cat yang buruk. Dengan menggunakan kalibrasi dari Model Biokinetik Penyerapan Paparan Terintegrasi untuk Timbal pada Anak (IEUBK), kami memperkirakan bahwa paparan terhadap cat timbal saja dapat mendorong 21 persen anak-anak berusia 0-5 tahun untuk memiliki kadar timbal dalam darah yang melebihi ambang batas aman atau diatas 5 μg/dL, setara dengan 55 persen dari total perkiraan kasus di antara anak-anak di Indonesia dalam basis data Global Burden of Disease. Paparan baru dari cat timbal terus menumpuk di lingkungan: tes yang dilakukan pada jenis cat paling populer di pasaran menemukan bahwa 77 persen mengandung tingkat timbal yang tidak aman. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa risiko keracunan dari cat timbal sangatlah tinggi dan tersebar luas di Indonesia, hal ini diperparah lagi dengan kondisi dimana rantai pasokan cat yang terkontaminasi timbal tetap dominan. |
| Date: | 2024–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10962 |
| By: | Mitsuyo Ando; Kazunobu Hayakawa; Fukunari Kimura |
| Abstract: | This study examines recent changes in international production networks facing various risks. We primarily investigate how import sources of the European Union (EU) countries in machinery industries have changed from the pre-pandemic to the post-pandemic period using monthly and annual international trade data at the finely disaggregated level, with a particular focus on East Asia. We confirm that Factory Asia experienced a much smaller negative impact and had a more rapid recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic compared with Factory America and Factory Europe, showing its robust and resilient nature. At least until 2023, the inter-regional linkages of East Asia as a supplier did not weaken. Moreover, we reveal that the two directions of links between East Asia and the EU are asymmetric. East Asian countries are important suppliers for the EU, particularly in general and electrical machinery industries, and the relative importance of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China, in particular, as EU import sources strengthened further in the post-pandemic period. We also demonstrate that EU countries increased imports from longer-distance countries, indicating no quantitative evidence of intensifying near-shoring in machinery industries in the post-COVID-19 era. Furthermore, we demonstrate that EU countries have prioritised friend-shoring from an economic perspective but not necessarily from a political perspective when purchasing machinery products in the post-pandemic period. |
| Keywords: | International production networks, machinery trade, East Asia, EU, near-shoring, friend-shoring, post-COVID-19 |
| JEL: | F14 F15 F53 |
| Date: | 2025–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wii:wpaper:260 |
| By: | Amanina Binti Abdur Rahman |
| Abstract: | Against the backdrop of aging, Indonesia has started to address important policy challenges, including by gradually raising the retirement age. However, the increase in the retirement age and the prospect of longer employment of older persons raises concerns about its potential impact on the employment of younger persons. This paper is the first to analyze the relationship between the employment rate of older persons and the labor market outcomes of younger persons in Indonesia. Using data from the Indonesia Labour Force Survey (Sakernas) for 2016 to 2023, the analysis explores the relationship between the labor market outcomes – that is, the employment rates, unemployment rates, hours worked, and income – of younger persons and older persons. The findings show that overall, an increase in the employment rate of older persons is significantly associated with an increase in the employment rate of youth and prime-aged persons. The positive relationship is robust and is found across most of the specifications tested, that is, across genders, education levels, sectors, and within the formal sector. Encouragingly, there is no evidence of a significant negative relationship between the employment of older persons and younger persons. When there is a significant negative relationship between the employment of older persons and other employment outcomes of younger persons, the magnitude is small. These findings support the notion that raising the retirement age can address some of the challenges faced by an aging society. Finally, lifelong learning, upskilling, and reskilling are important to facilitate longer working lives by ensuring that older workers remain employable in a changing economy. |
| Date: | 2024–11–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10972 |
| By: | Christopher Alexander Hoy; Filip Jolevski; Anthony Obeyesekere |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the pervasiveness of tax evasion among firms in Indonesia and the characteristics associated with higher levels of noncompliance. Tax evasion is estimated through a randomized, double-list experiment embedded in a nationally representative survey of 2, 955 registered firms. This revealed whether firms pay all the taxes they owe without them having to disclose this directly. Across both list experiments, around a quarter of the firms indirectly reveal that they have evaded taxes. Firms that do not export, face intense competition from informal firms, and believe tax administration is a major obstacle to their business are the most likely to evade taxes. These findings help to inform the enforcement activities of tax authorities in middle-income countries, which face substantial challenges in estimating levels of tax evasion and identifying noncompliant taxpayers. |
| Date: | 2024–07–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10857 |
| By: | Hai-Anh H. Dang; Talip Kilic; Ksenia Abanokova; Gero Carletto |
| Abstract: | Accurate poverty measurement relies on household consumption data, but such data are often inadequate, outdated, or display inconsistencies over time in poorer countries. To address these data challenges, this paper employs survey-to-survey imputation to produce estimates for several poverty indicators, including headcount poverty, extreme poverty, poverty gap, near-poverty rates, as well as mean consumption levels and the entire consumption distribution. Analysis of 22 multi-topic household surveys conducted over the past decade in Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Viet Nam yields encouraging results. Adding household utility expenditures or food expenditures to basic imputation models with household-level demographic, employment, and asset variables could improve the probability of imputation accuracy by 0.1 to 0.4. Adding predictors from geospatial data could further increase imputation accuracy. The analysis also shows that a larger time interval between surveys is associated with a lower probability of predicting some poverty indicators, and that a better imputation model goodness-of-fit (R2) does not necessarily help. The results offer cost-saving inputs for future survey design. |
| Date: | 2024–08–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10867 |
| By: | Johanna Fajardo-Gonzalez; Hasanbasri, Ardina; Rios-Avila, Fernando |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the parenthood penalty in Indonesian labor markets, with a focus on gender disparities. It uses longitudinal data from the Indonesia Family Life Survey from 1993 to 2014 and employs a difference-in-differences approach with staggered adoption to estimate the impact of parenthood on labor market participation for both men and women. The results reveal that the birth of a child has a significant and persistent negative effect on women’s employment, with the penalty extending up to six years after childbirth. In contrast, men experience only short-lived and insignificant changes in employment after fatherhood. The analysis further identifies substantial heterogeneity across different subgroups. Women in urban areas and those with higher levels of education experience larger and more prolonged penalties, while rural women, those with lower levels of education, and those with extended family support recover more quickly. The findings highlight the role of socioeconomic factors in moderating the parenthood penalty and offer critical insights for policies aimed at promoting gender equality in the labor market. |
| Date: | 2024–11–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10973 |
| By: | Kokas, Deeksha; Roche Rodriguez, Jaime Alfonso; Gladys Lopez-Acevedo; Robertson, Raymond; Wendy Karamba |
| Abstract: | Cambodia’s rapid economic growth in the past few decades has coincided with trade liberalization and structural transformation. This growth has been extensively associated with more employment, higher wages, shared prosperity, and poverty reduction. By combining two complementary approaches, the gravity model and the Bartik model, this paper estimates: (i) the relationship between trade agreements and trade flows, and (ii) the relationship between trade exposure and various local labor market outcomes. The gravity estimates show that trade agreements between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations are positively related with trade flows, and that Cambodia’s specific gains from these increases in trade have been larger than for the average trade agreement. This has led to better results for workers in Cambodia’s local labor markets. The shift-share Bartik results suggest that increases in trade exposure in Cambodian districts between 2009 and 2019 correlate with reduced informality and an increase in hours worked, with more positive effects for female workers. |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10895 |
| By: | Hillary C. Johnson; Cecile Thioro Niang; Francesco Strobbe; Salman Alibhai |
| Abstract: | Examining one of the world’s largest public business support programs, this paper studies how subsidized credit and partial credit guarantees shape access to finance for micro and small businesses in Indonesia. The analysis uses administrative data on more than 8.4 million borrowers and unique quantitative and qualitative data to show that subsidized credit can enable firms to access formal credit for the first time and boost financial inclusion. However, subsidized credit does not alleviate longer-term credit constraints by serving as a stepping stone to unsubsidized commercial credit in this context. The results highlight the challenge of reaching borrowers without collateral, even in programs that explicitly target them using instruments such as partial credit guarantees. The paper sheds light on how public credit schemes for small businesses can be designed to optimize inclusiveness and additionality. |
| Date: | 2024–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10894 |
| By: | Antonacci, Paulo; Muhammad Khudadad Chattha |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an evaluation of a tax enforcement program conducted in Indonesia where officials from the tax authority visited properties to engage directly with owners about their property tax obligations. Through these visits, auditors explained outstanding debts and payment processes, aiming to improve tax compliance and revenue collection. The paper uses an administrative data set and a new set of machine learning–based techniques to assess the program’s effectiveness. The program was responsible for increasing tax compliance on the extensive margin by 4.3 percent and on the intensive margin by 5.1 percent in the first year it was implemented. These effects are particularly strong as they persist in the following period. The findings show that the visited properties had better compliance history, lower value, smaller area, and were more likely to have some construction on them. A key finding from the analysis is that higher-value properties are less sensitive to the visits. In other words, if a data-driven tax-enforcement strategy is to be applied, then it may focus resources on enforcing taxation at the poorest part of the population in this case. This opens up the discussion of the distributional consequences of an algorithm-based enforcement strategy, which is increasingly important as machine learning techniques are used by tax authorities. |
| Date: | 2024–09–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10901 |
| By: | Góes, Carlos; Segnana, Juan; Robertson, Raymond; Lopez-Acevedo, Gladys C. |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the dynamic effects of export exposure on local labor markets in Indonesia, that is, how an increase in exports affects a range of labor market indicators over time. The paper develops an empirical strategy to instrument exposure to foreign demand shocks and validates it by showing that labor market responses are consistent with what a quantitative spatial model would predict after demand shocks. The results show that employment, labor force, real wages, and real wage bills increase more in districts that are more exposed to foreign demand shocks—that is, where exports increase more—relative to the least exposed regions. Extending the analysis over multiple response horizons shows that these shocks persist six years after the foreign demand shock. Lastly, employment responses are stronger among skilled workers relative to unskilled workers and in the formal sector relative to the informal sector. |
| Date: | 2024–06–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10829 |
| By: | Kokas, Deeksha; Gladys Lopez-Acevedo; Vu, Ha |
| Abstract: | Are changes in the labor market in response to changes in exports contained specifically within exporting industries, or do they disperse throughout the economy through supply chain linkages? This paper studies the case of Viet Nam, an example of a successful export-led growth economy, to examine this question. Combining UN COMTRADE data, input-output tables from the Global Trade Analysis Project, and 2010 to 2019 annual labor force survey data for Viet Nam, the study constructed a measure of each worker’s total exposure to export shocks. The measure accounts for changes due to both direct export exposure (increase in exports in the worker’s own industry) and indirect exposure (from increased exports in other industries that use inputs from the worker’s industry). Estimates of the repercussions from increasing exports on labor market outcomes show that both direct and indirect exposure significantly increase workers’ wages and employment, while reducing inactivity and inequality. Wage premiums for attending college decrease, and the gender wage gap narrows. Wages increase more for the lowest-income workers and employment gains accrue more to unskilled workers, while employment decreases for more skilled workers. |
| Date: | 2024–08–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10868 |
| By: | Calice, Pietro; Demekas, Dimitri G. |
| Abstract: | Financial sector reforms are part of the strategies that countries follow to exit from fragility, but the content and focus of these reforms and the priority they are given relative to other policies vary from country to country. Based on an archival search of publicly available World Bank and the International Monetary Fund country documents, this paper investigates and compares the experiences of seven countries (Armenia, Benin, Cambodia, the Dominican Republic, Rwanda, Senegal, and Viet Nam) that successfully and sustainably exited fragility during the 1980s and 1990s, focusing on the financial sector reforms that were implemented around the time of the exit. The review suggests a few broad patterns. Regardless of the original causes of fragility, successful exit strategies always included financial sector reforms, which invariably focused on short-term goals: stopping bank losses, establishing monetary control, and re-starting the engine of financial intermediation and the flow of credit to the economy. Longer-term financial development goals, such as financial deepening, were recognized as important, but the requisite policy interventions came later, after the financial sector had been restored to health and was able to discharge its basic functions. Crucially, substantial, hands-on, long-term technical assistance and capacity building were in all cases necessary to ensure the long-term success of these reforms. |
| Date: | 2024–07–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10853 |
| By: | Asadullah, M Niaz; Biradavolu, Monica; Vijayendra Rao; Simler, Kenneth |
| Abstract: | This paper sheds light on a Malaysian paradox that may have lessons for the rest of the world. Despite high gross domestic product growth with concurrent sharp reductions in income poverty and inequality, there was widespread discontent in the country. The paper first documents various dimensions of the Malaysian “miracle” with diverse data. It then draws on qualitative, open-ended focus group discussions to go below the surface of the quantitative data to analyze how Malaysian citizens perceive these changes, the challenges they face, and their sources of discontent. The findings reveal a broad consensus that while material living standards have improved, they have been accompanied by an underside such as a large “imbalance” between income and expenses, a need to rely on dual incomes and multiple jobs, growing indebtedness, increased stress, and polarization across ethnic groups. The paper argues that the Malaysian paradox may reveal something more general about the underside of economic growth. |
| Date: | 2024–11–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10968 |
| By: | Rongen, Gerton; Lanjouw, Peter |
| Abstract: | This study documents short-term economic mobility in Malaysia over the first two decades of the twenty-first century, at the population level and for various subgroups. The findings show broad and steady improvements in well-being, as evidenced by large decreases in chronic poverty and significant increases in persistent economic security. The study employs a synthetic panel approach based on nationally representative micro-level data for 2004–22, with a refinement that allows presenting bootstrap point estimates and standard deviations. In addition, the study investigates several poverty and vulnerability scenarios, as well as relative mobility. First, the results indicate that chronic poverty has decreased to 2–3 percent of the population. Nevertheless, progress is not uniform: around 15 percent of the population in rural East Malaysia lives in chronic poverty. Second, the study finds considerable increases in sustained economic security—the extent of improvement, however, depends on the approach and income thresholds that are used to define security. Moreover, ethnic and regional differences in secure status are sizable at higher income class thresholds. The largest differences are of a regional dimension: an individual in urban Peninsular Malaysia is more than three times more likely to live in economic security than someone in rural East Malaysia. Altogether, the study observes upward movement across the board but little evidence of dramatic changes in the relative positions of societal groups. |
| Date: | 2024–12–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10991 |
| By: | Wu, Hanbo |
| Abstract: | Current research on education reform has focused chiefly on positive shocks that intend to equalize educational opportunity, while negative shocks that impede school access have rarely been investigated. What would happen to someone exposed simultaneously to both types of shocks? I tackle this question in the context of Vietnam, where a universal primary education reform (a positive shock) and an introduction of tuition fee for secondary education (a negative shock) took place almost at the same time but affected different cohorts. I find that the negative shock decreased individual years of schooling, whereas the positive shock increased it. The beneficial effect of the positive shock outstrips the adverse effect of the negative shock, resulting in an overall improvement in educational attainment for those exposed to both shocks. The favorable joint effect on schooling is more pronounced for socioeconomically disadvantaged rural residents, women, and ethnic minorities. Educational assortative mating, intergenerational persistence of education, and labor market outcomes are also examined in this article. |
| Date: | 2025–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:2km56_v1 |
| By: | Mohammad Amin; Nesma Ali |
| Abstract: | It is often argued that small firms are more flexible than large firms. As a result, small firms perform better in volatile markets compared to large firms. The present paper explores this idea for a representative sample of private hotels in Malaysia. Specifically, the paper estimates the impact of volatility in occupancy rates on the pure technical efficiency of small versus large hotels. A slack-based non-radial efficiency measure obtained from the data envelopment analysis methodology is used. The empirical results confirm that smaller hotels are better at dealing with volatility than large hotels are. That is, there is a positive and significant impact of higher volatility on the efficiency of relatively small hotels, a negative and significant impact on the efficiency of larger hotels, and no significant impact on the efficiency of the average hotel. Higher women’s ownership also helps hotels to deal with volatility. The paper discusses the policy implications of the findings. |
| Date: | 2024–10–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10953 |
| By: | Muhammad Sukri Bin Ramli |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between income inequality, gender, and school completion rates in Malaysia using machine learning techniques. The dataset utilized is from the Malaysia's Public Sector Open Data Portal, covering the period 2016-2022. The analysis employs various machine learning techniques, including K-means clustering, ARIMA modeling, Random Forest regression, and Prophet for time series forecasting. These models are used to identify patterns, trends, and anomalies in the data, and to predict future school completion rates. Key findings reveal significant disparities in school completion rates across states, genders, and income levels. The analysis also identifies clusters of states with similar completion rates, suggesting potential regional factors influencing educational outcomes. Furthermore, time series forecasting models accurately predict future completion rates, highlighting the importance of ongoing monitoring and intervention strategies. The study concludes with recommendations for policymakers and educators to address the observed disparities and improve school completion rates in Malaysia. These recommendations include targeted interventions for specific states and demographic groups, investment in early childhood education, and addressing the impact of income inequality on educational opportunities. The findings of this study contribute to the understanding of the factors influencing school completion in Malaysia and provide valuable insights for policymakers and educators to develop effective strategies to improve educational outcomes. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.18868 |
| By: | Arpita Mukherjee (Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)); Ketaki Gaikwad; Aahana Srishti |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to (a) examine the growth of e-commerce in the Asia-Pacific region, (b) identify the growth drivers and the contribution of the sector to MSMEs, women entrepreneurs, and allied sectors like express delivery services, (c) examine the policy landscape and how it is evolving in APAC countries with a focus on learning from each other’s best practices (d) identify the policy and other challenges such as those related to cross-border data sharing, consumer privacy, cross-border payments, gaps in paperless trade, etc., that may impact the current and/or future growth of the e-commerce sector and its users and (e) make recommendations to facilitate cross border e-commerce trade and help users of e-commerce platforms like MSMEs and women entrepreneurs enhance their global reach. |
| Keywords: | Asia-Pacific, E-commerce, Trade, Policy, MSMEs, icrier |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdc:wpaper:425 |
| By: | Arugay, Aries Ayuson; Donald, Aletheia Amalia; Jarvis, Forest Brach; Johnson, Hillary C.; Valenciano, Aletheia |
| Abstract: | Decision-making is often used as a proxy for agency—the ability to set goals and act on them—although there are several theoretical critiques of this approach. Using unique data from the rural Philippines, this paper empirically tests the extent to which different aspects of decision-making are correlated with the Relative Autonomy Index, a measure of agency that has been validated for use in lower-income countries. Being a decision-maker (as asked in common survey questions) is only weakly related to the Relative Autonomy Index for women, and not at all for men. Having input into decisions and, to a greater extent, the ability to make personal decisions if desired are strongly associated with the RAI for both genders. The quantitative and qualitative data indicate that these concepts better capture the ability to make choices in line with one’s personal goals, while being a decision-maker instead reflects being responsible for the outcome or managing the execution of a task, often in the face of limited options. The findings caution against focusing on being a decision-maker as a sole indicator of agency and have practical implications for both conceptualizing and measuring agency. |
| Date: | 2024–07–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10851 |
| By: | Abreha, Kaleb; Gladys Lopez-Acevedo |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses patterns and drivers of current trade restructuring and its welfare implications. The main trade restructuring drivers include lower cost advanced technologies, rising offshore labor costs, and recent shocks like COVID-19, trade disputes, and geopolitical tensions. Data on bilateral trade flows show that the United States and the European Union have reoriented their trade relationships. Between 2017 and 2023, for example, U.S. imports from countries like Mexico and Viet Nam grew significantly, whereas imports from China and Japan declined significantly. Market reallocation stems from tariffs, trade restrictions, and large-scale industrial policies. Countries with greater competitiveness, high logistics capabilities, and technological readiness are emerging as new production hubs. Additionally, restructuring is having significant welfare effects. Automation has increased reshoring and increased wage inequality between high- and low-skilled workers in offshoring countries, reduced export demand, and led to job and income losses in offshore countries. Furthermore, protectionist measures have, predictably, decreased welfare. U.S.-China trade tensions, for example, raised U.S. consumer costs, reduced product variety, generated small tariff revenue, and forced exporters to absorb most of the retaliatory tariffs. Looking ahead, more evidence is needed on the long-run effects from restructuring and its effects on welfare. Meanwhile, policy dialogue should focus on preventing trade fragmentation and mitigating adverse welfare effects. |
| Date: | 2024–10–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10955 |
| By: | Bazzi, Samuel; Hilmy, Masyhur; Marx, Benjamin; Mahvish Ifrah Shaukat; Stegmann, Andreas |
| Abstract: | In many countries, local governments struggle with inefficiency and corruption, often perpetuated by entrenched elites. This paper explores how leadership changes affect bureaucratic performance at the local level by combining detailed personnel surveys with a regression discontinuity design in a large sample of Indonesian villages. The findings show that turnovers in village elections revitalize local bureaucracies, disrupt nepotistic networks, and improve local government performance. Bureaucrats under new leadership become more engaged, receive higher pay, and are less likely to be tied to past or present village officials, resulting in a more responsive bureaucracy that interacts more frequently with citizens and better understands their needs. This leads to higher levels of public service provision, measured in both administrative data and surveys conducted with citizens. Together, these findings suggest that leadership changes can mitigate elite capture and improve governance at the grassroots level. |
| Date: | 2024–09–19 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10920 |
| By: | Hector Pollitt; Migle Petrauskaite |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a “plausible worst-case” scenario for Cambodia to illustrate how a severe, 1-in-10-year flood could trigger cascading impacts, including widespread disease outbreaks and financial instability. The analysis shifts from forecasting to risk management, focusing on the economic consequences at each stage of this disaster chain. As climate change increases the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, Cambodia’s vulnerabilities are likely to intensify, with severe floods leading to disruptions in health care, declines in labor productivity, and risks to financial stability. Although Cambodia’s current financial position provides some resilience, the risk of financial contagion remains, especially due to the growing sovereign-bank nexus. The paper highlights the importance of integrating climate risks into Cambodia’s broader risk management strategies and suggests preemptive interventions, such as improving flood forecasting, health care infrastructure, and exploring disaster risk finance instruments. These measures could help mitigate the cascading impacts of climate-induced disasters and build long-term resilience. The paper concludes that a shift from reactive crisis management to proactive preparedness and adaptation will be crucial for Cambodia’s ability to manage future climate risks and ensure economic and social stability. |
| Date: | 2024–11–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10983 |
| By: | Andres Fortunato (Center for International Development at Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | This is one of four Growth Lab reports that aim to identify promising growth opportunities for Hermosillo. The focus of this report is nearshoring. Nearshoring is not a new phenomenon in Mexico, but recent changes in U.S. policy aimed to incentivize nearshoring of critical industries. This report first explores current realities of nearshoring and friendshoring in recent years, based on global trade and the distance which U.S. imports are traveling, and Mexico’s dynamics in global trade and investment in comparison to other countries. The report then evaluates the economic growth opportunities that nearshoring could incentivize in Hermosillo. We analyze the nearshoring opportunity set for Hermosillo across products and industries and if they are based on the city’s productive capabilities. This report confirms that nearshoring and friendshoring have been taking place in global trade and investment in response to U.S. policy between 2017 and 2023. Mexico has made gains in its exports to the U.S. market in recent years as exports from China have lost ground, but it is not the only country doing so. A few countries like Vietnam benefited even more, despite being geographically far from the U.S. market. Mexico is seeing growth in products it has traditionally exported, but it is not seeing much diversification into products that the U.S. has deemed critical. Nor is Mexico seeing promising investment trends that would signal an acceleration of growth in these opportunities. Given Hermosillo’s position as a large city that is near the U.S. market, and to a growing market in Arizona in particular, the process of nearshoring represents a potentially transformational chance to jumpstart growth in attractive industries to better position the local economy for the future. This report provides analysis to begin to identify the most promising nearshoring opportunities for Hermosillo, but local action is needed to build on these initial observations. We identify products and industries that are attractive opportunities for nearshoring in Hermosillo and we evaluate which industries are most consistent with Hermosillo’s existing industry structure and underlying productive capabilities. Promising opportunities stand out in industries related to medical equipment, electronics, machinery, and plastics and the latter sections of this report explore these opportunities in some detail, both quantitatively and more qualitatively. Local strategies to capitalize on these opportunities will vary in design and local actors should weigh the criteria provided and other considerations when deciding which industries are the highest priority for targeted investment promotion and other action steps. One exception, however, is in the value chain for semiconductors, where the emerging opportunity to supply and complement the value chain that is forming in Arizona is too large to pass up. Semiconductors represent an essential area that policymakers and the business community in Hermosillo should embrace, along with a set of additional promising nearshoring opportunities. |
| Keywords: | Hermosillo, Nearshoring |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:glh:wpfacu:240 |
| By: | Yashodhan Ghorpade; Muhammad Saad Imtiaz; Theingie Han |
| Abstract: | In recent years, Myanmar has witnessed considerable economic and political instability, leading many young people, particularly the higher-skilled, to consider migrating abroad for improved prospects. This paper employs an innovative method to quantify migration intentions among high-skilled youth by analyzing the take-up of migration at different wage premia. A randomized survey experiment then evaluates how hypothetical political and economic stabilization scenarios impact these intentions. The findings show that 35 percent of the respondents would be willing to take a similar job abroad for pay equal to their current income. Randomization within the survey indicates that political stabilization would potentially reduce high-skilled workers’ desire to migrate by about 15 percent, especially among men, those living in high-conflict areas, and persons with lower absolute income but higher perceived relative income. In contrast, prospects of economic stabilization do not have a significant effect on migration intentions. In the absence of political stability and a reduction in conflict, economic stabilization is unlikely to reduce talent outflows among the young. |
| Date: | 2024–08–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10878 |
| By: | Dr. Ghamz E Ali Siyal; Dr. Adeel Ahmed (Assistant Professor, School of Economics and Social Sciences (SESS), Institute of Business Administration (IBA), Karachi.; Lecturer, Economics and Finance, RMIT, Vietnam.) |
| Abstract: | Globally, production and waste generation have been increasing for several decades. The flow of recyclable waste from developed to developing countries has also risen. Notably, China was the primary importer of recyclable waste for recycling and reuse. However, to reduce the burden of recycling and solid waste management, China has begun restricting the import of low-quality waste. This study analyzes the impact of trade restriction policy, specifically the National Sword Policy (NSP), on waste exports, with a focus on plastic waste scrap . This waste is exported to China from the rest of the world. The analysis relies on two major data sources: the Center for Prospective Studies and International Information (CEPII) database and GDP per capita (GDPPC) from the World Development Indicators (WDI). Using the Gravity model, this study examines trade patterns over a 24-year period from 1995 to 2018, deliberately excluding the pandemic years to avoid bias in the results. The findings indicate that the NSP reduced plastic waste scrap exports to China by 177% while increasing the flow of low-quality plastic waste scrap to the rest of the world by 135%. Considerably, countries with poor environmental regulations received more (339%) plastic, compared to the top 20 importers, which saw an increase of 285%. These findings highlight the need for further analysis of trade patterns, particularly through a multi-product approach and an intensive and extensive margin analysis of all types of plastic waste scrap. |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aho:ibaess:wpsil7 |
| By: | Saigal, Manisha; JOHNS, Philip |
| Abstract: | Understanding human-wildlife interactions is crucial for effective urban wildlife management and conservation. This study compared Singapore residents' perceptions and awareness of scenario-based etiquette towards four prominent urban wildlife species: smooth‐coated otters (Lutrogale perspicillata), long-tailed macaques (Macaca fascicularis), Malayan water monitor lizards (Varanus salvator) and reticulated pythons (Malayopython reticulatus). Using online surveys (n=399), we investigated how demographic factors and exposure to each species influence perceptions. Our results show significant differences in perceptions and etiquette responses towards each species. Respondents had the highest affinity towards otters, perceived greater property damage from mammals than reptiles, and feared terrestrial more than semi-aquatic species. Respondents’ age, parental status, frequency of park visits, involvement in wildlife programs and frequency of seeing each species significantly influenced perceptions, suggesting a need to engage older people and parents more to improve wildlife perceptions. Notably, the frequency of direct encounters with wildlife only explained 1% of variation in perceptions, suggesting that exposure or familiarity alone do not ensure coexistence with wildlife. Our findings emphasise the need for more public education on wildlife etiquette, especially regarding macaques. We found that wildlife education lowered perceptions of property damage but not fear, suggesting that addressing misconceptions and negative perceptions requires fostering positive emotional connections with wildlife. Our analysis highlights the interplay between urban aesthetics, cultural perceptions, wildlife education, and human and animal behaviour in shaping human-wildlife interactions. Most saliently, our study demonstrates the importance of species-specific approaches to improve relationships between humans and wildlife. |
| Date: | 2024–11–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:kjtp9_v1 |
| By: | Aurélien Saïdi; Alexandra Schaffar; Francisco Serranito |
| Abstract: | This study examines the causal relationship between political independence and economic development in small islands and coastal territories using a difference-in-differences methodology with heterogeneous treatment effects. Contrary to the prevailing consensus in the literature that associates independence with inferior economic performance, our results reveal a more nuanced dynamics. While the transition to independence initially triggers a significant contraction in GDP per capita (–5% in the year of independence, followed by an additional –8% the subsequent year), this adverse effect dissipates within three years. Our cohort-specific analysis unveils substantial heterogeneity in post-independence trajectories. Some territories, such as Singapore and Seychelles, experienced remarkable growth following independence, while others faced significant economic decline. This heterogeneity challenges both traditional models of island development: it refutes the assumption that political dependence is necessary for economic success, while also questioning the view that pre-existing economic divergences solely determine political status choices. Implementation of a robust difference-in-differences framework with heterogeneous treatment timing, following recent methodological advances, ensures our findings’ validity under various identification assumptions. Overall, our results suggest that independence’s impact fundamentally depends on idiosyncratic factors that determine a territory’s capacity to transform political autonomy into economic development opportunities. |
| Keywords: | Economic Development, Diff-in-diff, Heterogeneous treatment, Political dependence, Small Islands Developing States (SIDS) |
| JEL: | C33 F43 O11 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2025-11 |
| By: | Pabico, Jaderick (University of the Philippines Los Baños) |
| Abstract: | In this study, we examined the implications of critical road segment failures on the timely evacuation of Borongan City residents, specifically focusing on the elderly demographics who face unique mobility challenges during emergencies. Building upon our prior work (Pabico, 2024), which utilized isochrone mapping to analyze accessibility, we broaden our approach to examine the impact of critical road segment failures on access to evacuation centers during disaster scenarios. By utilizing network analysis, we simulated potential road segment disruptions to determine the increased evacuation times for affected populations. Our criticality assessment identified those road segments whose failures would lead to significant delays, emphasizing their influence on evacuation efficiency for elderly residents, who represent the slowest-moving demographic and are therefore highly vulnerable in emergencies. Through this analysis, we not only highlight potential bottlenecks but also propose actionable insights for targeted disaster risk reduction strategies, including alternate route planning and prioritization of road maintenance in critical areas. Our findings underscore the need for integrative disaster risk reduction and management planning in Borongan City. We aim to provide local governments and emergency planners with evidence-based recommendations for improving evacuation infrastructure, optimizing emergency response protocols, and enhancing overall community resilience. Ultimately, we advocate for prioritizing vulnerable populations in evacuation planning to ensure that all residents, particularly the elderly, have timely access to safe evacuation centers during disasters. |
| Date: | 2025–02–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:osfxxx:s72zg_v1 |