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on South East Asia |
| By: | Sistac, Eliott |
| Abstract: | In the four decades following 1960, the Southeast Asian economies of Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines (ASEAN5) grew faster than almost any other grouping of countries. This growth was marked by significant transformation of their industrial structures. First in Singapore and the Philippines, then in Thailand and Malaysia and lastly in Indonesia. This staggered pattern of industrialisation suggests a differentiated examination of each country’s industrial trajectory – a task this dissertation undertakes by exploring the Flying Geese (FG) model of economic development. The first aim of this study was to verify the applicability of the FG pattern in ASEAN5. To this end, the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) index of ASEAN5 in low, medium and high technology manufactures is analysed to assess shifts in comparative advantages from 1964 to 1999. This is complemented by an analysis of FDI flows, for a comprehensive examination of the FG pattern in ASEAN5. The results of this analysis confirm the presence of an FG pattern of development among Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, but not the Philippines. The second aim of this study was to scrutinise the implications of the FG pattern of development in shaping the economic landscapes of ASEAN5. Three impacts, FDI-led growth, co-operation initiatives and poverty reduction, are considered within larger debates on the links between globalisation and economic development. The analysis reveals that the ASEAN5’s record of development under the FG pattern has been mixed, challenging some of the narratives around globalisation. |
| JEL: | N15 |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:127147 |
| By: | Oikawa , Keita (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia); Iwasaki , Fusanori (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia); Sawada, Yasuyuki (University of Tokyo); Shinozaki, Shigehiro (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic profoundly impacted people’s lives, social activities, and businesses. It particularly affected micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), which account for the vast majority of firms and most of the labor force. Compared to larger firms, MSMEs were less able to absorb the pandemic’s shocks, both in developed and developing economies. While digital technologies, such as e-commerce platforms, were often seen as effective tools for businesses where in-person communications are restricted, they did not guarantee the success of MSMEs. An Indonesian study showed that adopting digital technologies did not always result in positive business outcomes for MSMEs during the early stages of the pandemic (Oikawa et al. 2024a). This paper investigates whether e-commerce use in the Philippines strengthened MSME performance during the pandemic, based on a unique Asian Development Bank dataset on the impact of COVID-19 on Philippine businesses from 2020 to 2021. The findings reveal that internet or e-commerce use did not lead to better MSME outcomes during the strict lockdown in March 2020. In fact, performance sometimes worsened. However, by August 2020, the negative effects had lessened, and by March 2021, one year into the pandemic, a positive impact had emerged. These results are consistent with the Indonesia study by Oikawa et al (2024a). |
| Keywords: | digitalization; digital financial services; access to finance; SME development; SME policy; Philippines |
| JEL: | D22 G20 L20 L50 |
| Date: | 2025–02–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0767 |
| By: | Mahirah Mahusin (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Hilmy Prilliadi (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | Spam remains a critical issue in the digital landscape, despite its slight global decline. In 2023, spam accounted for 45.6% of global emails and remains a major vector for malware and phishing attacks. Within ASEAN, spam-related issues challenge productivity, cybersecurity, and consumer protection. To address these challenges, ASEAN Member States have initiated various anti-spam measures, guided by regional frameworks such as the ASEAN Digital Masterplan 2025 and the ASEAN–China Initiative on Enhancing Cooperation on E-commerce. However, the diversity of anti-spam legislation – particularly the variance between opt-in and opt-out models – complicates cross-border enforcement. This policy brief advocates for a harmonised approach to spam regulation, drawing on international best practices. Recommendations include adopting an opt-in model for better cross-border enforcement, strengthening consumer education, investing in advanced spam-filtering technologies, and enhancing regional cooperation through frameworks like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement and the ASEAN–Australia–New Zealand Free Trade Area to ensure consistency and effectiveness in combating spam across ASEAN. Latest Articles |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2024-15 |
| By: | Emeline Bezin (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Bastien Chabé-Ferret (Middlesex University); David de la Croix (UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain) |
| Abstract: | Fertility becomes a strategic choice for minorities when having a larger share of the population helps to increase power. If parents invest resources to educate their children, then raising fertility for strategic reasons might be at the cost of future human capital. We dispel this view using census data from several developing countries. We show that religious and ethnic minorities in Indonesia, China, and Malaysia tend to invest more in both education and fertility compared to larger groups. Solving for the Nash equilibrium of an appropriation game between two groups with education and fertility being prescribed as group-specific behavioral norms, we offer a rationale for the observed patterns provided that human capital is an important input to appropriation. |
| Keywords: | Human Capital, Nash equilibrium, Indonesia, Fertility, Quality-quantity trade-off, Minorities, Conflict, Population engineering |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-04877862 |
| By: | de Brauw, Alan; The Anh, Dao; Tho, Pham Thi Hanh |
| Abstract: | The food environment represents the place in which demand for food meets supply—consumers purchase foods in the food environment, while retailers of the food consumers purchase represent the end of the value chain. In many countries, the food environment is undergoing rapid change as economies grow and populations urbanize; a consequence is that a larger share of food consumed is purchased by the end consumer (de Bruin and Holleman 2023). Viet Nam is no different. Viet Nam’s growing and urbanizing economy has, over time, led to a changing food environment. This note focuses on one type of retailer in Viet Nam’s food environment: the small grocery. We define small groceries as stores that are not supermarkets, are not part of a chain, and have a fixed storefront from which they do business on a daily or near daily basis. These stores play a small but important role in Viet Nam’s food environment, particularly in rural areas, and as we will demonstrate, almost all these groceries sell at least one component of a sustainable healthy diet. As a result, what they sell could help play a role in improving the diets of Viet Nam’s population. To focus on learning more about small groceries, this note makes use of two datasets. One is a listing exercise that enumerated all the businesses selling food in sampled wards of three districts: Dong Da, in urban Ha Noi; Dong Anh, which is in peri-urban Ha Noi; and Moc Chau, which is a rural district northwest of Ha Noi. The second survey used the first survey as a sample frame, and was specifically designed to learn about the constraints and opportunities that micro-, small-, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) face in considering selling more healthy foods (Ceballos et al. 2023). Small groceries are one type of business in the food environment, and all can be considered MSMEs. |
| Keywords: | food environment; food consumption; sustainability; nutrition; health; small and medium enterprises; Asia; South-eastern Asia; Vietnam |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:168651 |
| By: | Rui Augusto Gomes |
| Abstract: | To offer policy recommendations regarding the prospective accession of Timor-Leste into the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), this study examines the development gaps between Timor-Leste and ASEAN member countries across various dimensions. The analysis utilises statistical aggregates derived from official reports, with a particular focus on well-being indicators. While Timor-Leste has made substantial progress over the past 2 decades – transitioning from post-conflict status to an open economy characterised by reduced corruption, democracy, a free press, relative stability, and sufficient liquidity – its economic and social policies have not consistently prioritised high and sustainable growth. Consequently, challenges such as overreliance on a single commodity, insufficient human development, a pronounced rural–urban divide, a lack of decent and productive job creation, limited domestic revenue diversification, weak food security, and an underdeveloped domestic private sector persist. The research underscores the importance of modernising Timor-Leste's domestic institutions and enhancing their capacities to operate effectively in a larger, highly competitive, market-driven environment within the region and beyond. At the same time, it highlights the need to address the complex challenges that were also faced by some ASEAN Member States during their accession in the 1990s. Finally, the paper offers recommendations on how Timor-Leste can maximise the benefits of ASEAN integration. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth; Timor-Leste; ASEAN; development gaps; poverty |
| JEL: | O5 O2 F6 |
| Date: | 2025–01–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2024-33 |
| By: | Mahirah Mahusin (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Hilmy Prilliadi (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | The ASEAN Agreement on Electronic Commerce mandates ASEAN Member States (AMS) to implement electronic authentication in line with international standards, aiming for interoperable e-authentication across the region by 2025. The establishment of national legal frameworks is crucial for the validity and exchange of electronic records and signatures, with some AMS already adopting United Nations Commission on International Trade Law model law-influenced legislation. Three regulatory models for e-signature exist globally – prescriptive, minimalist, and two-tiered – each with distinct implications for security and flexibility. Successful e-authentication adoption involves legislative, administrative, and technological integration, along with user acceptance. Implementation status in the Asia-Pacific region correlates with gross domestic product per capita and overall capacity. Cross-border interoperability, particularly under a two-tiered approach, is essential for seamless e-signature adoption. Policy recommendations include ensuring ASEAN-wide interoperability; impact analysis on micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises; flexible implementation timelines; capacity building; and maintaining updated e-signature information on the ASEAN portal. Latest Articles |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2024-14 |
| By: | Mahirah Mahusin (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Hilmy Prilliadi (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | The growth of digital payment use in ASEAN has been significant, with digital payments accounting for over 50% of transactions and projected to reach US$416.60 billion by 2028. This expansion supports financial inclusion, enhances e-commerce, and bolsters micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises. However, challenges – such as interoperability, regulatory fragmentation, and data security – persist. ASEAN’s initiatives, including the Declaration on Advancing Regional Payment Connectivity and Promoting Local Currency Transaction, aim to address these issues. This policy brief emphasises the need for harmonised regulations, enhanced cross-sectoral collaboration, and robust security measures to ensure the seamless integration and sustainable growth of digital payments in the region. Latest Articles |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2024-13 |
| By: | Glauber, Joseph W.; Mamun, Abdullah |
| Abstract: | Rice is a major food crop supplying, on average, 516 kcal per capita per day or roughly 17.3% of total calories consumed globally in 2022. Rice production and consumption is concentrated in Asia though rice has grown as an important staple crop outside of Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa currently accounts for 7 percent of global rice consumption but account for over 28 percent of total rice imports. Rice is a thinly traded crop compared to other staples like wheat and maize. Rice imports account for about 10 percent of total consumption today but import penetration is expected to grow to about 11 percent by 2033. India is the world’s largest exporter accounting for about 40 percent of total exports in recent years. Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam and the United States account for an additional 40 percent of world exports. Mid-range projections for the next 10 years suggest that trends in place will likely continue. Yields are assumed to keep pace with global consumption trends. Sub-Saharan Africa will account for a significant share of the overall growth in consumption. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that Sub-Saharan Africa will account for 27 percent of the growth in global rice consumption and 47 percent of the growth in global imports over the next 10 years. Climate and government distortions remain the single largest vulnerabilities to the rice market. Because of the large concentration of rice production in South and Southeast Asia, crop production is vulnerable to El Niño and other climatic events like the Indian Ocean Dipole which can bring hot and dry weather and disrupt the monsoon season. Since rice is so thinly traded, market restrictions imposed by one of more of the major exporting countries can cause large price impacts. In 2007/08, export bans affected as much as 80 percent of rice trade which caused global prices to almost triple. In July 2023, India imposed export restrictions fearing that domestic production would be harmed by a developing El Nino event. Global rice prices rose by 30 percent as a result. Importing countries bore much of the brunt of those increases, particularly poorer countries in the rice-importing areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. Other potential vulnerabilities include logistical issues, particularly bottlenecks in the major shipping lanes of Asia. |
| Keywords: | climate; rice; risk; trade; vulnerability |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:ifprid:2310 |
| By: | Mahirah Mahusin (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)); Hilmy Prilliadi (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | This policy paper examines the critical role of talent mobility and cooperation in fostering innovation and addressing the growing digital skills gap in ASEAN. Despite rapid growth in the region’s digital economy, the talent pool remains insufficient to meet the demands of information and communications technology and knowledge-based industries. Current ASEAN efforts, such as the ASEAN Agreement on the Movement of Natural Persons and various mutual recognition arrangements, have not fully addressed these challenges. This paper argues that integrating talent mobility and development provisions into the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) will enhance regional competitiveness. By promoting regional cooperation, addressing skill gaps, and creating a unified framework for talent development, the DEFA can support ASEAN’s transition towards an innovation-driven economy. Key recommendations include the establishment of a regional dialogue platform, creation of a region-wide ‘tech pass’, and increased private sector involvement in workforce development. Latest Articles |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:pb-2024-12 |
| By: | Andreoni, Antonio; Anzolin, Guendalina; Labrunie, Mateus; Sartorello Spinola, Danilo |
| Abstract: | This research pioneers the construction of a novel Digital Production Technology Classification (DPTC) based on the latest Harmonised Commodity Description and Coding System (HS2017) of the World Customs Organisation. The DPTC enables the identification and comprehensive analysis of 127 tradable products associated with digital production technologies (DPTs). The development of this classification offers a substantial contribution to empirical research and policy analysis. It enables an extensive exploration of international trade in DPTs, such as the identification of emerging trade networks comprising final goods, intermediate components, and instrumentation technologies and the intricate regional and geopolitical dynamics related to DPTs. In this paper, we deploy our DPTC within a network analysis methodological framework to analyse countries' engagements with DPTs through bilateral and multilateral trade. By comparing the trade networks in DPTs in 2012 and 2019, we unveil dramat ic shifts in the global DPTs' network structure, different countries' roles, and their degree of centrality. Notably, our findings shed light on China's expanding role and the changing trade patterns of the USA in the digital technology realm. The analysis also brings to the fore the increasing significance of Southeast Asian countries, revealing the emergence of a regional hub within this area, characterised by dense bilateral networks in DPTs. Furthermore, our study points to the fragmented network structures in Europe and the bilateral dependencies that developed there. Being the first systematic DPTC, also deployed within a network analysis framework, we expect the classification to become an indispensable tool for researchers, policymakers, and stakeholders engaged in research on digitalisation and digital industrial policy. |
| JEL: | O14 O33 F14 |
| Date: | 2023–12–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2023044 |
| By: | Kene Boun My; Quang-Huy Nguyen; Phu Nguyen-Van; Thi Kim Cuong Pham; Anne Stenger; Tuyen Tiet; Nguyen To-The |
| Abstract: | This study uses a quantitative approach based on a discrete choice experiment with 586 farmers in Northern Vietnam to measure how representative market and non-market factors could influence their preferences for participating in organic certification schemes. Our results suggest that a sales contract with either flexible or guaranteed prices is a significant incentive to explain their willingness to pay higher production costs to be involved in organic certification schemes. Furthermore, providing farmers with training and technical support is also essential to motivate farmers toward organic agriculture. Finally, neighborhood cooperatives and formal leaders' participation in organic certification could encourage farmers to convert to organic agriculture. |
| Keywords: | Discrete choice experiment; Organic certification; Farmers' preferences; Leadership; Role of network |
| JEL: | C93 D10 Q00 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2025-6 |
| By: | Shota Watanabe; Ema Ogura; Keita Oikawa (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | The transition to data-driven societies has heightened the importance of balancing the free flow of data with robust data protection for privacy, intellectual property, trade secrets, and national security. While different countries have introduced various data governance frameworks, including comprehensive privacy laws, differences in regulations across borders hinder data flow, increasing compliance costs and limiting business expansion, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises. The concept of Data Free Flow with Trust (DFFT), introduced at the G20 in 2019, aims to address this balance by promoting interoperability while respecting national sovereignty. In ASEAN, however, regulatory fragmentation further complicates cross-border data flow. Variations in data localisation policies and personal data governance amongst ASEAN Member States (AMS) create significant challenges for businesses. For instance, differences in requirements for sensitive data, data subject rights, and security measures necessitate additional compliance efforts for companies operating in multiple jurisdictions. Moreover, non-personal data regulations, such as restrictions on supply chain and research and development (R&D) data sharing or mandatory technology transfers, impede global R&D collaboration and discourage investment in certain countries. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of data-related regulations in ASEAN and proposes policy recommendations for the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA), set for 2025. It highlights the need for transparency, regulatory alignment, and various mechanisms to ensure smoother cross-border data flow, ultimately fostering regional digital integration. |
| Keywords: | ASEAN; data governance; Data Free Flow with Trust (DFFT); ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) |
| JEL: | K2 |
| Date: | 2025–01–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2024-32 |
| By: | Nguyen, Trang; Termeer, Emma; Berkhout, Ezra; Mekonnen, Daniel Ayalew; Dijkxhoorn, Youri; de Steenhuijsen Pieters, Bart |
| Abstract: | In most low and middle-income countries (LMICs) the food system falls short in providing sufficient amounts of healthy foods to a burgeoning population. The growing awareness of how food systems are stressing planetary boundaries and failing to provide sustainable healthy diets and livelihoods has prompted the widespread call to transform the global food system (Béné 2022; FAO et al. 2020, 2024; Webb et al. 2020). Transforming food systems requires engaging various groups of actors with diverse perspectives and challenges (Leeuwis et al. 2021), including setting up alliances with the informal sector (Brouwer & Ruben 2021) and a strengthened focus on the role of micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs). Globally, MSMEs represent about 90 percent of all businesses and account for 60 to 70 percent of employment and 50 percent of GDP. In the current food system, by being present at all value chain stages and better linking small-scale farmers to markets, MSMEs can offer affordable food to both urban and rural areas, create jobs and opportunities for young and female entrepreneurs, and support sustainable, circular food practices (IFAD 2021). These promises can be fulfilled if certain barriers that can hinder their contributions, such as high rates of food loss and waste (FLW), food safety concerns, and the uncertain informal context in which the majority of them operate are addressed (Termeer et al. 2024). |
| Keywords: | food systems; small and medium enterprises; sustainability; healthy diets; value chains; fruits; vegetables; food environment; markets; Benin; Ethiopia; Philippines; Tanzania; Vietnam; Western Africa; Eastern Africa; South-eastern Asia; Africa; Asia |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:168852 |
| By: | Minh Ha-Duong (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Purpose: To analyze the International Atomic Energy Agency's "Milestones" guidebook which provides a framework for developing national nuclear power programs. Methods: Review of the IAEA guidebook and recent nuclear industry reports, using architectural metaphors to explain concepts. Results: The guidebook presents nuclear power development as a system engineering challenge requiring coordinated progress across 19 infrastructure elements through 3 sequential phases over 10-15 years. The systematic approach remains relevant despite dramatic changes in the global energy landscape, where renewables now generate more electricity than nuclear in many markets. Practical implications: For Vietnam, which is considering restarting its nuclear program, the framework helps identify which foundational elements from previous work remain solid and which need reconstruction. Significant updating will be needed across all infrastructure elements to reach Phase 2 readiness for contracting. |
| Abstract: | Résumé structuré en français Objectif: Analyser le guide "Milestones" de l'Agence internationale de l'énergie atomique qui fournit un cadre pour le développement des programmes nucléaires nationaux. Méthode: Revue du guide AIEA et des rapports récents sur l'industrie nucléaire, utilisant des métaphores architecturales pour expliquer les concepts. Résultats: Le guide présente le développement de l'énergie nucléaire comme un défi d'ingénierie système nécessitant des progrès coordonnés à travers 19 éléments d'infrastructure en 3 phases séquentielles sur 10-15 ans. L'approche systématique reste pertinente malgré les changements spectaculaires du paysage énergétique mondial, où les énergies renouvelables produisent maintenant plus d'électricité que le nucléaire sur de nombreux marchés. Implications pratiques: Pour le Vietnam, qui envisage de relancer son programme nucléaire, le cadre aide à identifier quels éléments fondamentaux des travaux précédents restent solides et lesquels nécessitent une reconstruction. Des mises à jour importantes seront nécessaires pour tous les éléments d'infrastructure pour atteindre la Phase 2 de préparation à la contractualisation. |
| Abstract: | Mục đích: Phân tích sổ tay "Các mốc phát triển" của Cơ quan Năng lượng Nguyên tử Quốc tế, cung cấp khung phát triển chương trình điện hạt nhân quốc gia. Phương pháp: Rà soát sổ tay IAEA và các báo cáo gần đây về ngành công nghiệp hạt nhân, sử dụng phép ẩn dụ kiến trúc để giải thích các khái niệm. Kết quả: Sổ tay trình bày việc phát triển điện hạt nhân như một thách thức kỹ thuật hệ thống đòi hỏi tiến độ phối hợp trên 19 yếu tố cơ sở hạ tầng qua 3 giai đoạn tuần tự trong 10-15 năm. Cách tiếp cận có hệ thống vẫn phù hợp mặc dù có những thay đổi lớn trong bối cảnh năng lượng toàn cầu, nơi năng lượng tái tạo hiện đang sản xuất nhiều điện hơn hạt nhân trên nhiều thị trường. Ý nghĩa thực tiễn: Đối với Việt Nam, quốc gia đang xem xét khởi động lại chương trình hạt nhân, khung này giúp xác định những yếu tố nền tảng nào từ công việc trước đây vẫn còn vững chắc và những yếu tố nào cần được xây dựng lại. Cần cập nhật đáng kể trên tất cả các yếu tố cơ sở hạ tầng để đạt được sự sẵn sàng Giai đoạn 2 cho ký kết hợp đồng. |
| Date: | 2024–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:ciredw:hal-04816335 |
| By: | Pham, Thi Trang (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, Mt Economic Research Inst on Innov/Techn) |
| Abstract: | New developments of existing technologies over time have led to emergent patterns of technology adoption and accordingly changing impacts on economy and society. Focusing on the arrival of mobile Internet in the early 2010s in developing countries, we identified significant positive effects of mobile Internet on provinces’ average household income in Vietnam. The effect sizes are larger for lower-income quintiles groups and for rural areas, suggesting the more inclusive changing impact of the innovation over the last decade. Preliminary evidence of impact mechanisms via skilled employment rates and (formal) wages are also presented. The evidence from Vietnam, a lower middle-income country, can bring further understanding in the extent of development impacts of second-generation mobile for development (M4D 2.0) in particular and ICT for development (ICT4D) in general. |
| JEL: | D31 E20 E24 J24 O30 O53 R50 |
| Date: | 2023–11–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2023042 |
| By: | Tadashi Ito |
| Abstract: | Although there are many news articles about tariff dodging by re-routing made-in-China goods through third countries and relabelling them as made-in-Mexico or made-in-Viet Nam, there are no scientific studies on the issue. This paper provides statistical evidence on whether such practices are taking place. Using monthly trade statistics at the most disaggregated level, analysis using data up to 2019, the year before the COVID-19 shock, show little evidence of roundabout trade. With an extended data set up to 2023, overall, there is little sign of roundabout trade, although some slight signs of roundabout trade for Mexico and Viet Nam. |
| Keywords: | Trump tariffs; Roundabout trade |
| JEL: | F14 |
| Date: | 2024–11–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2024-31 |
| By: | Maarten van 't Riet; Arjan Lejour; Arjan M. Lejour |
| Abstract: | Analysis of the international network of double tax treaties reveals a large potential for tax avoidance. Developing countries are, on average, not more likely to suffer from tax revenue losses than other countries. Yet, this average masks the fact that several countries, such as Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Kenya, Uganda and Zambia, are vulnerable to substantial potential losses of withholding tax revenue by treaty shopping. The analysis combines tax parameters of more than a hundred countries with an algorithm from network theory, which simulates the tax minimizing behaviour of multinational enterprises. We introduce the notion of potentially aggressive tax treaties. These are the key treaties in treaty shopping routes, that may lead to substantial tax revenue losses in developing countries. Moreover, the treaty partners are often in a prime position to top-up tax undertaxed profits of developing countries that offer tax incentives to attract investment, thus nullifying the incentive effects. |
| Keywords: | tax treaties, treaty shopping, developing countries, network analysis, withholding taxes, aggressive tax treaties, global minimum tax |
| JEL: | F23 H25 H26 O10 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11641 |
| By: | Namugumya, Brenda S.; Herens, Marion; Kruft, Krista; de Groote, Bram; Tuyen, Huynh Thi Thanh; Huong, Pham Thi Mai; Thanh, Duong Thi |
| Abstract: | Collaborative governance processes are increasingly recognized as critical for normative food systems transformation (FST) globally. For instance, collective action and multistakeholder partnerships is one of the main levers of change stated in Viet Nam’s “National Action Plan on Food Systems Transformation in Viet Nam towards Transparency, Responsibility, and Sustainability by 2030†(FST-NAP). The collaborative processes bring together government, private actors and citizens in collective forums and networks to engage in long-term goal-oriented decision making and implementation, for example, change towards sustainable healthy diets and better planetary health for all populations (Ansell and Gash 2008). Forming and maintaining collaborative governance processes entail navigating different challenges attributed to the inherently dynamic nature of such partnerships. |
| Keywords: | capacity building; food systems; sustainability; healthy diets |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:cgiarp:169021 |
| By: | Schlicht, Haley |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the dynamics of Western OECD syndicated bank lending to East Asian borrowers during the 1997-1998 Asian Financial Crisis (AFC), focusing on the interplay between sentiment volatility and moral hazard. Analysing loan data from Thomson-Reuters DealScan reveals that between 1993-2003 East Asian borrowers received disproportionately high loan volumes compared to other emerging market countries and this phenomenon is not full explainable by economic fundamentals. Regression analysis highlights the paradoxical role of short-term debt: while it was associated with higher loan spreads and fees, reflecting an acknowledgment of risk, it simultaneously increased lending volumes, indicating conflicting risk assessment. The study employs the novel use of GenerativeAI to construct an estimate of volatility in sentiment towards East Asia from financial news headlines, offering an original assessment of how market sentiment influenced lending behaviour. The Difference-in-Differences analysis provides compelling evidence that, in the pre-crisis period, increased sentiment volatility spurred increased lending while post-crisis that same volatility deterred lending. This shift highlights how lenders engaged in excessive lending despite appreciable risk before the AFC, only to recalibrate their behaviour in response to the post-crisis fallout. These findings indicate that the "East Asia effect" was shaped not just by regional economic factors, but also by sentiment-driven decision-making which contributed to the financial instability that characterized the AFC. This research highlights the need for further investigation into the role of sentiment in international finance, particularly its influence on financial decision-making during periods of economic growth and crisis. |
| JEL: | F34 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:127154 |
| By: | Minjie Deng (Simon Fraser University); Chang Liu (National University of Singapore) |
| Abstract: | Online appendix for the Review of Economic Dynamics article |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:append:23-24 |
| By: | Prabir De; Komal Biswal; Venkatachalam Anbumozhi (Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)) |
| Abstract: | Renewable energy contributes to the acceleration of the energy transition, supports global environmental mitigation, and helps meet sustainable development goals. Energy connectivity of India’s Northeastern Region (NER) with neighbouring countries particularly ASEAN assumes critical importance for accelerating economic integration. NER can play a three-dimensional role as power producer, exporter, and transit provider provided a quadrangular approach to build energy linkages and promote integration is consciously put in place. To understand whether the NER states are capable enough to take forward the solar supply chain development and bolster the ASEAN-India engagements in solar energy sector, this study has designed a state-level index of solar supply chain development by factoring in seven parameters, namely, (i) economic situations, (ii) environmental factors, (iii) spread of connectivity, (iv) financial enabling conditions, (v) mobility, (vi) human development, and (vi) social cohesion, which directly or indirectly influence the solar supply chain development in India. The results show that a clean and decent environment is must for development of solar supply chain. In addition, the study suggests that there is a need to improve the solar supply chain capability in the NER to enhance the economic growth. Leveraging policy support and reinvigorating existing institutions and creating new ones are imperatives for predicting the solar supply chain in the NER. This indexing may help track the trends, allowing for more informed decision-making in securing regional solar supply chain. |
| Keywords: | NER; India; ASEAN; Solar supply chain; Energy; Renewable energy |
| Date: | 2024–11–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:era:wpaper:dp-2024-30 |
| By: | Dom Kandpinijsha (Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand) |
| Abstract: | Within the global value chain, firms' ability to generate economic rents—additional profits above baseline returns—is crucial to their competitiveness, with state-allocated exogenous rents also shaping industry structure. This research examines rent dynamics in the Thai automotive industry, focusing on the interplay between policy rents and GVC rents. It traces these dynamics along the evolving path from the inception of the automotive industry in Thailand to the ongoing disruptive transition to new energy vehicles (NEVs), which accentuates the established configuration of power and interests across the industry. Findings indicate that: 1) local firms occupy subordinate roles throughout the development trajectory due to a lack of policy rents specifically targeting the effective enhancement of indigenous productive competencies; 2) when an industry has matured with established positions within the value chain, stakeholders endowed with significant rents stand to capture more benefits from policy rents, especially during transitional phases; 3) as local firms are not encouraged to proactively accumulate technological rents, they resort to seeking non-productive rents as opportunities permit. This research underscores how the interaction between state policy and foreign investment influences the architecture of the Thai automotive industry, offering insights into broader economic effects in emerging economies. |
| Keywords: | economic rents, industrial policy, global value chain (GVC), foreign direct investment (FDI), automotive industry, NEV transition |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0475 |
| By: | Aidan Li (Xavier High School, New York, USA) |
| Abstract: | This study examines how six influence categories and 18 factors affect the college major selection process among Asian American students. Rising sophomores at US colleges (N=150) were asked to indicate their top major choices and estimate corresponding average median salaries. After an informational intervention (reviewing actual median salary data by major), students updated their choices, and 46% selected new majors. Students stack ranked the importance of six influence categories: their own interests in the major, characteristics intrinsic to the major, information about the major, family, college, and high school factors. 18 specific factors, including median salary data, social media, YouTube, parents, siblings, and grandparents, were rated on a 5-point Likert scale on their importance to the major selection process. Results indicated that Asian American students estimated the median salaries more accurately and were less influenced by high school factors, books and articles, grandparents, and family friends. A Probit regression model showed that the Bankrate median salary data was significant in predicting the likelihood of switching majors post informational intervention. A linear regression model showed that two categories—the own interests in the major and characteristics intrinsic to the major—and three factors—the median salary data, YouTube, and books—were statistically significant in estimating the top choice major’s actual median salary, while parents and siblings were not. |
| Keywords: | college major, Asian American, informational intervention, median salaries, YouTube |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0478 |
| By: | Anna Clevenhaus; Claudia Totzeck; Matthias Ehrhardt |
| Abstract: | We present a novel approach for parameter calibration of the Heston model for pricing an Asian put option, namely space mapping. Since few parameters of the Heston model can be directly extracted from real market data, calibration to real market data is implicit and therefore a challenging task. In addition, some of the parameters in the model are non-linear, which makes it difficult to find the global minimum of the optimization problem within the calibration. Our approach is based on the idea of space mapping, exploiting the residuum of a coarse surrogate model that allows optimization and a fine model that needs to be calibrated. In our case, the pricing of an Asian option using the Heston model SDE is the fine model, and the surrogate is chosen to be the Heston model PDE pricing a European option. We formally derive a gradient descent algorithm for the PDE constrained calibration model using well-known techniques from optimization with PDEs. Our main goal is to provide evidence that the space mapping approach can be useful in financial calibration tasks. Numerical results underline the feasibility of our approach. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2501.14521 |
| By: | Pham, Thi Trang (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, Mt Economic Research Inst on Innov/Techn); Caldarola, Bernardo (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, Mt Economic Research Inst on Innov/Techn) |
| Abstract: | While mobile internet diffusion in the last decade has led to significant growth and improvements in household income and employment, much less has been studied on education attainment outcomes, which matter especially for developing countries’ human capital policies for development catch-up. In this paper, we find that 3G internet diffusion improves lower-secondary school attainment but discourages upper-secondary achievement of youth in Viet Nam. We rationalize these findings through an education – employment tradeoff perspective by considering the opportunity costs of schooling vis `a vis employment. We show that the diffusion of fast mobile broadband internet is associated with more job opportunities and reduced returns to schooling during the period 2012-2016 following fast diffusion. Our results offer implications for developing countries’ education and human capital development policies in the age of (mobile) digitalization. |
| JEL: | I25 O33 J13 L96 |
| Date: | 2024–09–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2024022 |
| By: | Kang , Jong Woo (Asian Development Bank); Cabaero , Carlos (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Foreign exchange (FX) trading volume is a key factor in exchange rate volatility. Given the important role of volatility in economic growth and stability, this paper investigates the dynamic nature of exchange trading volume on exchange rate volatility using hourly high-frequency data. The estimation results from ordinary least squares, fixed effects and the general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model point to a significant impact of third-party foreign exchange trade volumes on the FX volatilities of original currency pairs. The United States dollar (USD), as the dominant currency, exerts sizeable effect through this third-party channel and the magnitude of the foreign exchange trading volume turns out to be a crucial factor to this effect. However, third-party currency pairs without USD linkages also exert non-negligible impact, calling for renewed attention to the effectiveness of regional financial cooperation in mitigating exchange rate volatility as compared with major foreign exchange trading partners, not only through direct transaction mechanisms but through third party currency channels. |
| Keywords: | FX volatility; third party channel; GARCH model |
| JEL: | F31 G15 G18 |
| Date: | 2025–02–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0768 |
| By: | Rachel Set Aung (Columbia University, United States of America) |
| Abstract: | Myanmar’s coup d’état of February 2021 deposed the democratically elected civilian administration with a military dictatorship, destabilizing the region with internal conflict and undue political imprisonments in the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic. Consequently, the sudden overthrow of the government revealed the fatal implications of politicizing public health crises and serves as a prominent modern representation of an unjust seizure of power and bio-weaponization. However, existing literature has relied predominantly on qualitative data to describe the unsettling humanitarian crisis in Myanmar, insufficiently highlighting a fraction of a multifaceted campaign against human rights. To address this significant gap in understanding, the current work departs from the qualitative focus of existing studies, and instead leverages quantitative methodology to draw relationships between socio-political factors, healthcare obstruction (e.g., 'Health Workers Killed', 'Forceful Entry into Health Facility'), and multi-year COVID-19 fatalities in Myanmar (2020-2023). Multivariate regression analysis results show significant associations between healthcare obstruction, vaccination uptake, testing, new cases, and COVID-19 fatalities, signaling that every additional incident of either healthcare obstruction, new COVID-19 case, or recorded testing incident is related to a staggering increase in COVID-19 fatalities. The findings emphasize the urgent need to address the weaponization of pandemics through political and public health interventions by authoritarian powers. Furthermore, this study highlights yet another large-scale humanitarian crisis in Myanmar and sparks a debate on the fundamental constitution of preventing the effects of disease weaponization and bio-warfare at the national and international levels. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Multivariate Regression, Human Rights, Public Health, Myanmar |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0442 |
| By: | Deniza Alieva (Management Development Institute of Singapore in Tashkent, Uzbekistan); Mark Beattie (Management Development Institute of Singapore in Tashkent, Uzbekistan); Odinabonu Khojiakbarova (Management Development Institute of Singapore in Tashkent, Uzbekistan); Diyorakhon Yuldasheva (Management Development Institute of Singapore in Tashkent, Uzbekistan) |
| Abstract: | Workplace bullying and violence are important issues that deeply impact employee well-being, organizational effectiveness, and overall workplace culture. This study explores these challenges through two surveys conducted in April 2024 in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, involving 92 individuals from the education, production, logistics, and sales sectors. Participants were divided into two groups of 46, with data collected through surveys self-administered in the presence of researchers and face-to-face interviews. The first study focused on workplace bullying, revealing that participants experienced various forms of mistreatment, including verbal abuse, social exclusion, and undermining of their work. Notably, cultural factors played a significant role in shaping the tolerance and perception of these behaviors. The second study examined workplace violence, uncovering instances of physical altercations and psychological harassment. Here, cultural attitudes toward authority, gender roles, and conflict resolution were found to influence the perception and management of such violence. These findings underscore the importance of culturally sensitive strategies for addressing workplace bullying and violence. Developing policies and interventions that respect and reflect local values can help organizations in Uzbekistan foster safer, more inclusive work environments. This research contributes to the ongoing conversation in management and business studies, offering practical insights for organizational leaders, policymakers, and scholars seeking to enhance workplace culture in the region. |
| Keywords: | workplace bullying, workplace violence, Uzbekistan, culture |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0453 |
| By: | Brynn Comes (Singapore American School, Singapore) |
| Abstract: | As social media has become commonplace, and influences thoughts and behaviors, one cannot help but wonder how social media causes shifts in the brain, specifically regarding mindset and emotions. This research paper was conducted to gather information on how different social media applications result in different emotions and behaviors. A survey that included 30 questions was conducted with a wide demographic of 95 participants, between the ages of 14 to 56. The survey evaluated how participants felt on a scale from 1 to 10 after using five social media websites: Facebook, YouTube, Instagram, Twitter (X), and TikTok. This paper analyzes the data collected and compares how different social media applications contribute to forming different feelings. By examining the results from a wide perspective, the research suggests how to make negative emotions that stem from social media less prominent. The goal is to inform the public of better ways to use social media applications for overall well-being. |
| Keywords: | social media, thoughts, behaviors, brain, mindset, emotions, feelings, loneliness, wellbeing, Instagram, YouTube, TikTok, Confidence, Facebook |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:smo:raiswp:0481 |