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on South East Asia |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Teuku Riefky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Muhammad Adriansyah (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Difa Fitriani (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | The first quarter of 2024 in Indonesia is full of various events. The momentum of the General Election, the Ramadan period, accelerated completion of infrastructure projects towards the end of the government term and several long holidays have encouraged an increase in domestic economic activity. As a result, Indonesia's GDP grew 5, 11% in the first quarter of 2024, an increase from 5, 04% (yoy) in the fourth quarter of 2023 and higher than the overall growth in 2023 of 5, 05% (yoy). The combination of various seasonal factors can increase household consumption, government spending and infrastructure investment. Furthermore, sectors that rely on physical mobility, such as accommodation and food and beverage, transportation, health and social activities also enjoy high growth rates due to various seasonal factors. Information and communication, public administration and construction also grew drastically due to the holding of elections and increased government spending. |
| Keywords: | gdp — economic quarterly — economic outlook — inflation — macroeconomics |
| Date: | 2024–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:queout:202403 |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Syahda Sabrina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Nauli A. Desdiani (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Teuku Riefky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Amalia Cesarina (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Meila Husna (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Yoshua Caesar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | The latest development of Indonesia’s economy might suggest the occurrence of secular stagnation. Having no new source of growth, Indonesia prolonged its long-term growth trend of around 5% since 2014 in the second quarter of 2024 (excluding the COVID-19 period). During the first half of 2024, Indonesia was not able to grow considerably beyond a 5% rate despite having two consecutive quarters with seasonal boosters. In Q1-2024, Indonesia held Presidential and legislative elections and had a Ramadhan period, while Ied Al-Fitr, religious and school holidays occurred in the second quarter of 2024. This phenomenon might suggest a more worrying condition as there might be a risk for Indonesia only to be able to grow below 5% without seasonal factors. Indonesia’s GDP grew slower from 5.11% (y.o.y) in Q1-2024 to 5.05% (y.o.y) in Q2-2024. As GoI’s spending significantly decelerated from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2024 after the effort to speed up infrastructure completion projects and enhanced spending preceding the election period, Indonesia’s GDP growth declined. The dominance of government spending in the growth figure might verify the lethargic productivity of economic sectors in Indonesi |
| Keywords: | gdp — economic quarterly — economic outlook — inflation — macroeconomics |
| Date: | 2024–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:queout:202404 |
| By: | JC Punongbayan (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | Does identification with dominant ethnic groups lead individuals to diverge in their preferences for redistribution? This paper contributes to the comparative analysis of the role of ethnic background in shaping attitudes towards government's role in reducing income inequalities in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, where nearly half-aÂbillion people live and belong to more than sixty ethnic groups. Using a pool of nationally representative survey data from the five Southeast Asian countries, we first classified the respondents by population dominance of the ethnic groups they claim to belong, and then examine for differences across members of dominant ethnic groups in their preferences for government redistribution. Relative to the biggest ethnic group, the second biggest ethnic group is found to have less preference for redistribution, after controlling for other factors. No systematic differences in their redistributive preferences are found, however, between the biggest ethnic group and other smaller groups. The results are fairly robust even after accounting for the possible moderating effects of income status, trust in government and in people, subjective social mobility, concerns about social fairness, and views on the importance of fate in one's life. Moreover, the results hold out even in the sub-sample of low-income people for whom economic considerations more than ethnicity are expected to determine their redistributive preferences. Notwithstanding the importance of shared norms or beliefs in aligning he social choices of people with same ethnic or racial background, our results suggest their population sizes, which possibly reflect their relative influence over domestic policies, also matter. |
| Keywords: | inflation; supply and demand; Philippines |
| JEL: | E31 E32 E52 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202404 |
| By: | Jahen F. Rezki (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Teuku Riefky (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Faradina Alifia Maizar (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Tarisha Yuliana (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Muhammad Adriansyah (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Indonesia's economic growth rebounded to 5.04% (yoy) in the fourth quarter of 2023, following a slowdown to 4.94% (yoy) in the previous quarter. This rebound brought the overall growth for 2023 to 5.05% (yoy), surpassing the 5% threshold. However, there are concerning signs, as the three largest sectors, agriculture, manufacturing, and trade, which cumulatively accounted for over 40% of the economy, showed signs of deceleration in the fourth quarter of 2023. Smaller sectors like transportation, mining, and electricity grew substantially, offsetting some of the decline from the major sectors. External factors, such as geopolitical tensions, China's economic slowdown, and El Niño's impact on agricultural productivity played a role in the challenges faced by Indonesia's economy. Additionally, domestic issues like structural productivity declines in agriculture, weakening purchasing power in the wholesale and retail trade sector, and the continued sluggishness of manufacturing raised concerns. Despite these challenges, the rebound indicates resilience, but it also serves as a call to action for Indonesia to accelerate structural transformation and improve overall productivity. |
| Keywords: | gdp — economic quarterly — economic outlook — inflation — macroeconomics |
| Date: | 2024–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:queout:202402 |
| By: | Chaikal Nuryakin (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Anita Putri Wulandari (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)); Dwi Sulistyorini (Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Indonesia (LPEM FEB UI)) |
| Abstract: | Indonesia is in a dire need of new engine of growth. This is evidently shown by economic growth performance that is highly dependable on business cycle and commodity prices. Following the moderation of commodity prices and the passing of holiday season in the previous quarter, Indonesia’s GDP only grew by 4.94% (y.o.y) in Q3-2023 and registered as the lowest quarterly growth since Q4-2016 (excluding Covid-19 period of 2020 and 2021). In addition, Indonesia is aspiring to become high-income country by 2045 and it necessitates the economy to grow substantially beyond the current level. To achieve this, reindustrialization and significant productivity improvement is required. However, the process of reindustrialization and productivity improvement is a medium- to long-term process due to its structural nature in the economy. Therefore, structural reform needs to be carried on and keep being policymaker’s priority. The upcoming general election will result in the new administration taking office and next administration should not lose focus on the issue of productivity and reindustrialization. |
| Keywords: | gdp — economic quarterly — economic outlook — inflation — macroeconomics |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lpe:queout:202401 |
| By: | YAMASHITA Kazuhito |
| Abstract: | Although there are claims that population growth will cause a food crisis in 2050, the inflaton-adjusted real price of world grains has been declining for more than a century. This is because the increase in grain production has outpaced population growth. However, grain prices do spike in the short term. People in developing countries, who spend more than half of their income on food consumption, will starve if they cannot afford to buy grain when prices triple. Grain exporting countries such as the U.S., Canada, and Australia export more than half of their production and do not restrict exports. In contrast, in developing countries, when international prices soar, grain flows out of the country for profit and domestic prices rise, causing starvation. Export restrictions in developing countries are intended to prevent such a situation. Demanding that developing countries not impose export restrictions despite starvation in the country is clearly unacceptable. Unlike wheat and soybeans, which are exported by the U.S. and other developed countries, rice is largely exported by developing countries such as India, Thailand, and Vietnam, which export only a marginal portion of their production and tend to employ export restrictions. Global rice markets are extremely unstable. If Japan abolishes its rice acreage reduction and exports larger amounts of rice, it could make a significant contribution to global food security. |
| Date: | 2025–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rpdpjp:25004 |
| By: | WANG, Wenjie (Division of Economics, School of Social Sciences, Nanyang Technological University.); ZHANG, Yichong (School of Economics, Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | We study the gradient wild bootstrap-based inference for instrumental variable quantile regressions in the framework of a small number of large clusters in which the number of clusters is viewed as fixed, and the number of observations for each cluster diverges to infinity. For the Wald inference, we show that our wild bootstrap Wald test, with or without studentization using the cluster-robust covariance estimator (CRVE), controls size asymptotically up to a small error as long as the parameter of endogenous variable is strongly identified in at least one of the clusters. We further show that the wild bootstrap Wald test with CRVE studentization is more powerful for distant local alternatives than that without. Last, we develop a wild bootstrap Anderson-Rubin (AR) test for the weak-identification-robust inference. We show it controls size asymptotically up to a small error, even under weak or partial identification for all clusters. We illustrate the good f inite-sample performance of the new inference methods using simulations and provide an empirical application to a well-known dataset about US local labor markets. |
| Keywords: | Gradient Wild Bootstrap; Weak Instruments; Clustered Data; Randomization Test; Instrumental Variable Quantile Regression |
| JEL: | C12 C26 C31 |
| Date: | 2024–08–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:2024_015 |
| By: | Dou, Liyu (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); KASTL, Jakub (Department of Economics, Princeton University, NBER and CEPR); LAZAREV, John (Stern Economics, New York University) |
| Abstract: | We develop a framework for quantifying delay propagation in airline networks that combines structural modeling and machine learning methods together to estimate causal objects of interest. Using a large comprehensive data set on actual delays and a model-selection algorithm (elastic net) we estimate a weighted directed graph of delay propagation for each major airline in the US and derive conditions under which the estimates of the propagation coefficients are causal. We use these estimates to decompose the airline performance into “luck” and “ability.” We find that luck may explain about 38% of the performance difference between Delta and American in our data. We further use these estimates to describe how network topology and other airline network characteristics (such as aircraft fleet heterogeneity) affect the expected delays. |
| Keywords: | Airline Networks; Shock Propagation; Elastic Net |
| JEL: | C50 L14 L93 |
| Date: | 2025–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:2024_014 |
| By: | Dou, Liyu (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Ho, Paul (FRB); Lubik, Thomas A. (FRB) |
| Abstract: | Max-share identification relies on a decomposition of the forecast error variance (FEV) over a target horizon. Consequently, it often conflates multiple shocks because the contribution to the FEV depends on the impulse responses at untargeted horizons and the shapes of the responses to untargeted shocks. We alleviate the issues using a socalled “single horizon” alternative that focuses narrowly on the actual target horizon. We characterize the identified shock in terms of true structural shocks in the single horizon problem and show that this typically bounds results in the literature’s usual implementation. Using a numerical demand and supply example and an empirical news shock application, we show that the traditional max-share approach inadvertently places weight on untargeted transitory shocks, a problem that the single horizon approach avoids. |
| Date: | 2024–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:2024_013 |
| By: | Toby C. Monsod (School of Economics, University of the Philippines Diliman) |
| Abstract: | The paper explores how well the National Climate Budget (NCB), starting in 2016, has supported the climate reform agenda articulated in the National Climate Change Action Plan 2011-2028 (NCCAP), now on its 14th year. It observes that the NCB, as appropriated, grew from P175 billion in 2016 to P457.4 billion in 2024, or by 161%, with a sharp increase of P174.8 billion, or 60.3%, occurring between 2022 and 2023. However, the sharp increase in 2023 is accounted for by just two agencies - DPWH and DOTR - whose incremental climate budgets account for 98% of the increase, or P146 billion and P24 billion respectively. Moreover, the share of NCB in the primary budget was only 7.3% on average over the period, and never higher than 10% in any one year, raising doubts about a “whole-of-government†approach to addressing climate change risks and impacts. Among the seven NCCAP strategic priorities, Water Sufficiency accounts for the greatest share at an average of 63.9% of the climate budget every year. Yet recurring El Nino events, which are known to exacerbate water scarcity, continue to require the activation of an ad-hoc mechanism to “ensure the country’s readiness to fight the effects of the El Nino phenomenon†. A deeper dive into the items for Water Sufficiency indicates a budget that is almost totally allocated to flood control and other construction works of DPWH; allocations to strengthen the regulatory environment and better manage the supply and demand of water resources are negligible in comparison. Prospects for advancing water security and mitigating El Nino impacts are discussed. |
| Keywords: | climate change budget; El Nino; climate change; Philippines |
| JEL: | H61 Q57 |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phs:dpaper:202406 |
| By: | Christine Rifflart (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po); Amel Falah (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | En 2023, la croissance des économie émergentes et en développement s'est maintenue à 4 % avec de fortes disparités régionales. Après une année 2022 à 3 %, l'activité chinoise a rebondi à un rythme de 5, 2 % tandis que celle dans le reste de l'Asie continuait de progresser autour de 5, 4 %. À l'inverse, l'Amérique latine a vu sa croissance divisée de moitié, à 1, 9 % en moyenne cette année-là. En 2024 et 2025, la croissance de cette partie du monde baisserait légèrement, principalement entraînée par la Chine. Le reste de l'Asie résisterait plutôt bien avec une croissance autour de 5 %. En Amérique latine, la dégradation à 1, 1 % en 2024 puis 1, 9 % en 2025 est surtout imputable à deux grandes économies de la région (Argentine, Mexique), la situation dans les autres économies s'améliorant. Globalement, la croissance en Asie hors Chine est restée relativement dynamique et le restera en 2024 et 2025. Toutefois, malgré cette performance, le PIB de l'Asie hors Chine n'est pas revenu au niveau qu'il aurait eu si la croissance depuis 2020 s'était maintenue sur sa tendance pré Covid. C'est le cas pour la Corée du sud, et surtout Hong Kong qui accuse un net retard, mais aussi les pays du groupe des tigres (Malaisie, philippines, Thaïlande, …). Même l'Inde malgré un dynamisme qui se poursuit, reste légèrement en deçà. En Amérique latine, le PIB régional aurait dépassé ce niveau, porté par les bonnes performances du Brésil et de la Colombie, les autres pays n'ayant pas encore effacé les effets des crises récentes (graphique 1). À l'exception de quelques pays en crise (Argentine, Venezuela), l'inflation a reflué partout dès 2023. En Asie, elle est revenue à l'intérieur de la bande définie par les banques centrales dans le cadre de leur politique d'inflation targeting mais reste encore très supérieure en Amérique latine. Malgré tout, ce reflux a permis la baisse des taux d'intérêt nominaux en Amérique latine (le dernier pays à l'avoir fait étant le Mexique en début d'année). En Asie par contre, le mouvement vient seulement de commencer (Indonésie et Philippines), en ligne avec la détente des taux aux États-Unis. La politique monétaire y est malgré tout peu restrictive, voire neutre, à la différence de l'Amérique latine où les taux réels restent très élevés. Dans ce contexte, les perspectives pour 2024 et 2025 restent contraintes à la fois par des facteurs internes et externes. Sur le plan intérieur, les politiques monétaires resteront contraintes par le risque d'une reprise inflationnistes, notamment en Amérique latine. La baisse prévue des taux d'intérêt aux États-Unis relâchera la pression sur les taux de change face au dollar et permettra aussi aux banques centrales de baisser les taux. Pour l'heure, la volatilité sur le marché des changes est forte mais les monnaies sont plutôt bien positionnées en termes de compétitivité. Sur le plan externe, la conjoncture internationale n'est guère porteuse. La baisse de la croissance aux États-Unis et en Chine devrait affecter les exportations des pays émergents qui réalisent pour beaucoup d'entre eux près de 40 % de leurs exportations avec ces deux grands pays (près de 90 % pour le Mexique et 55 % pour le Chili) (graphique 2). Par ailleurs, la stratégie offensive de la Chine qui s'appuie sur des prix faibles pour gagner des parts de marché sur les marchés tiers devrait se poursuivre, au détriment de ses concurrents. Enfin, après la flambée de 2021-2022, les prix des matières premières sont revenus à des niveaux plus modérés et devraient le rester, ce qui est favorables aux pays importateurs (principalement d'Asie) mais défavorables aux pays exportateurs (principalement d'Amérique latine). [Premiers paragraphes] |
| Keywords: | tour du monde, situation conjoncturelle, pays émergents d’Asie, pays émergents d’Amérique latine, dynamiques croisées |
| Date: | 2024–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04807363 |
| By: | Edwige Landais (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement); Raphaël Pelloquin (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement); Elodie Maître D’hôtel (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement); Mai Truong Tuyet (NIN - National Institute of Nutrition); Nga Hoang Thu (NIN - National Institute of Nutrition); Yen Bui Thi Thao (NIN - National Institute of Nutrition); Ha Do Thi Phuong (NIN - National Institute of Nutrition); Trang Tran Thi Thu (NIN - National Institute of Nutrition); Jérôme Somé (IRSS - Institut de Recherche en Sciences de la Santé - CNRST - Centre national de la recherche scientifique et technologique [Ouagadougou]); Christophe Béné (The Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) [Cali] - Alliance - Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) [Rome] - CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR]); Eric O Verger (UMR MoISA - Montpellier Interdisciplinary center on Sustainable Agri-food systems (Social and nutritional sciences) - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - CIHEAM-IAMM - Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier - CIHEAM - Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Montpellier - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement, IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement) |
| Abstract: | In a world rapidly transitioning, food consumption away from home is rising, therefore representing an increasing share of individual's diet. Food consumed away from home negatively impacts diet, nutritional status and consequently has detrimental effects on health. In some contexts, where individual level dietary intake surveys are not regularly conducted, this behavior is not well documented leading to a gap of knowledge. The aim of the present study was to develop and validate in Burkina Faso and Vietnam specific modules that could be added to Household Consumption and Expenditure Surveys that are usually regularly conducted worldwide, in order to document the economic and nutritional importance of food consumption away from home. In each country, two survey modules, one long (100 food items) and one short (30 food items) were developed, to measure individual-level food consumption away from home over the last 7 days. The modules were relatively validated in comparison with data from three non-consecutive 24-hour dietary recalls conducted over the same 7-days period. The validation was conducted in different settings (urban, peri-urban and rural) in Burkina Faso (n = 924) and Vietnam (n = 918). In both countries, a good concordance between the 24-hour dietary recalls and the modules in their ability to identify a person as having consumed food away from home (>77%) was found. However, in both countries, both modules underestimate the mean energy intake coming from foods consumed away from home (from 122 to 408 kcal) while they overestimate the budget allocated to it (from -0.07 to -0.29 USD/day). None of developed food away from home modules were considered as valid. There is a need for the international community to continue to work on developing and validating tools capable to estimate nutritional intakes related to food consumption away from home and that could be added to regular national household-level surveys. |
| Keywords: | food consumed away from home, Vietnam, Burkina Faso, validation, module, assessment |
| Date: | 2024–12–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04815728 |
| By: | Vincent Chatellier (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | World trade (excluding intra-EU-27 trade) in poultry meat amounted to 23.9 billion euros in 2021. On the export side, three quarters of this amount were accounted for by just four players: Brazil (29.5%), the USA (18.2%), the EU-27 (14.2%) and Thailand (12.7%). While these countries already occupied a central position in 2000 (with 79% of total exports), the weight of Brazil has increased significantly, unlike that of the USA and the EU-27. On the import side, the level of concentration is less clear-cut, with 41% of global flows in 2021 coming from the top four players, namely China (12.6%), Japan (12.5%), the UK (10.2%) and the EU-27 (5.6%). In 2022, the EU-27 trade balance in poultry meat reached 2.12 billion euros. EU-27 exports went mainly to the UK (58.6% of the total in 2022), followed by Switzerland (4.7%), Ghana (3.7%) and Saudi Arabia (3.7%). Imports into the EU-27 came mainly, in 2022, from Brazil (35.1%), Thailand (26.7%) and Ukraine (10.7%), the latter gaining market share in recent years. Within the EU-27, the two Member States with the largest poultry meat surpluses in 2022 were Poland (4.4 billion euros) and the Netherlands (1.3 billion euros). France, which has seen its trade balance deteriorate sharply over the last two decades, has become the EU-27 member state with the biggest deficit (-1.14 billion euros in 2022, compared with +1.15 billion euros in 2000). Imports now cover a large share of domestic consumption (42% of volumes in 2022). By mobilizing three complementary customs databases (BACI, COMEXT and French Customs), over a long period (since 2000), the aim here is to highlight the main trends in the poultry meat trade (in terms of both value and volume), at different geographical scales (world, EU-27 and France). |
| Abstract: | Le commerce mondial (hors échanges intra-Union européenne -UE-27-) de viande de volailles s'est élevé à 23, 9 milliards d'euros en 2021. A l'export, les trois quarts de ce montant étaient le fait de seulement quatre acteurs : le Brésil (29, 5%), les Etats-Unis (18, 2%), l'UE-27 (14, 2%) et la Thaïlande (12, 7%). Si ces pays occupaient déjà une place centrale dès 2000 (avec 79% du total des exportations), le poids du Brésil a nettement augmenté contrairement à celui des Etats-Unis et de l'UE-27. A l'import, le niveau de concentration est moins net, 41% des flux mondiaux de 2021 résultant des quatre premiers acteurs, à savoir la Chine (12, 6%), le Japon (12, 5%), le Royaume-Uni (10, 2%) et l'UE-27 (5, 6%). En 2022, le solde commercial de l'UE-27 en viande de volailles atteignait 2, 12 milliards d'euros. Les exportations de l'UE-27 étaient surtout orientées vers le Royaume-Uni (58, 6% du total en 2022), les pays qui arrivaient ensuite étant la Suisse (4, 7%), le Ghana (3, 7%) et l'Arabie Saoudite (3, 7%). De leur côté, les importations de l'UE-27 résultaient, en 2022, pour l'essentiel du Brésil (35, 1%), de la Thaïlande (26, 7%) et de l'Ukraine (10, 7%), ce dernier pays gagnant des parts de marché depuis quelques années. Au sein de l'UE-27, les deux Etats membres les plus excédentaires en viande de volailles étaient, en 2022, la Pologne (4, 4 milliards d'euros) et les Pays-Bas (1, 3 milliard d'euros). La France, qui a enregistré une forte dégradation de sa balance commerciale au fil des deux dernières décennies, est devenue l'Etat membre de l'UE-27 le plus déficitaire (avec -1, 14 milliard d'euros en 2022 contre +1, 15 milliard d'euros en 2000). Les importations couvrent désormais une large part de la consommation intérieure (42% des volumes en 2022). En mobilisant trois bases de données complémentaires issues des douanées (BACI, COMEXT et les Douanes françaises), sur une période longue (depuis 2000), l'objectif poursuivi ici est de mettre en évidence les principales tendances à l'oeuvre dans le commerce de viande de volailles (tant en valeur qu'en volume), ce à différentes échelles géographiques (monde, UE-27 et France). |
| Keywords: | Poultry, Trade, Competitiveness, Volailles, Commerce, Echanges, Compétitivité |
| Date: | 2024–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04835283 |
| By: | Marlène Koffi; Roland Pongou; Leonard Wantchekon |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the existence of racial disparities in the dissemination of ideas using the paper citation network in economics. Exploiting a comprehensive dataset of over 330, 000 publications from 1950 to 2021, combined with manually collected data from the CVs of thousands of economists, we document that papers authored by non-White scholars (Black, Hispanic, or Asian) receive 5.1% to 9.6% fewer citations than those authored by White scholars. The citation gap remains or even amplifies with increasing author seniority and conventional quality indicators and is especially pronounced for Black authors. Moreover, papers authored by non-White scholars are less likely to serve as citation bridges and are less often cited by highly cited papers as measured by the centrality indexes, limiting both their direct and indirect influence. Our analysis indicates that this disparity is not attributable to differences in research quality, author ability, or visibility. Rather, it is largely driven by homophily in citation patterns and racial clusters in networks, where scholars tend to cite authors from their racial group. These findings can be rationalized by a simple theoretical model where citation costs and peer-review preferences influence citation behavior. Then, we provide suggestive evidence that reducing information friction—thereby lowering the cost of citing—could reduce the racial citation gap by up to 50%. Finally, using natural language processing, we highlight the complementarity across racial groups in research and discuss potential losses from racial barriers to idea diffusion. |
| JEL: | A14 I23 J15 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33150 |
| By: | Vincent Lee Wai Seng; Shariff Abu Bakar Sarip Abidinsa |
| Abstract: | Since 2017, licensed money services business (MSB) operators in Malaysia report transactional data to the Central Bank of Malaysia on a monthly basis. The data allow supervisors to conduct off-site monitoring on the MSB industry; however, due to the increasing size of data and large population of the operators, supervisors face resource challenges to timely identify higher risk patterns, especially at the outlet level of the MSB. The paper proposes a weakly-supervised machine learning approach to detect anomalies in the MSB outlets on a periodic basis by combining transactional data with outlet information, including geolocation-related data. The test results highlight the benefits of machine learning techniques in facilitating supervisors to focus their resources on MSB outlets with abnormal behaviours in a targeted location. |
| Keywords: | suptech, money services business transactional data, outlet geolocation, machine learning, supervision on money services business |
| JEL: | C38 C81 G28 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:bisiwp:23 |
| By: | Vincent Chatellier (SMART - Structures et Marché Agricoles, Ressources et Territoires - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - Institut Agro Rennes Angers - Institut Agro - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement) |
| Abstract: | World trade in poultry meat (all species, including preparations and cured meats), excluding intra-European Union (EU) trade, reached 22.3 million tce in 2022, worth 31.6 billion euros, the highest level ever. This increase in trade, dominated by exports from Brazil, the United States, the EU and Thailand, is taking place against a backdrop in which global consumption of poultry meat has doubled since 2000. The main importers are China, Japan, the UK and the EU. The EU's poultry meat trade balance remains positive (2.3 billion euros in 2023), thanks to sustained exports to the UK market and despite increased imports from Ukraine. Within the EU, Poland stands out with a four-fold increase in production and a rapid rise in exports in two decades. In France, the sector's economic trajectory is unfavorable, with imports accounting for 44 % of domestic consumption. Using three databases (BACI, COMEXT and French customs), this article summarizes the evolution of world, European and French trade in poultry meat. |
| Abstract: | Le commerce mondial de viande de volailles (toutes espèces confondues, préparations et viandes saumurées incluses), mesuré hors échanges intra-Union européenne (UE), s'est élevé à 22, 3 millions de tec en 2022 pour un montant de 31, 6 milliards d'euros, le plus haut niveau jamais atteint. La hausse de ces échanges, dominés à l'export par le Brésil, les États-Unis, l'UE et la Thaïlande, intervient dans un contexte où la consommation mondiale de viandes de volailles a doublé depuis 2000. Les principaux importateurs sont la Chine, le Japon, le Royaume-Uni et l'UE. La balance commerciale de l'UE en viande de volailles demeure toujours positive (2, 3 milliards d'euros en 2023) grâce aux exportations soutenues vers le marché britannique et en dépit d'importations accentuées en provenance de l'Ukraine. Au sein de l'UE, la Pologne se distingue avec un quadruplement de sa production et un essor rapide de ses exportations en deux décennies. En France, la trajectoire économique de cette filière est défavorable avec des importations qui représentent 44 % de la consommation intérieure. En valorisant trois bases de données (BACI, COMEXT et douanes françaises), cet article propose une synthèse sur l'évolution du commerce mondial, européen et français de viande de volailles. |
| Keywords: | Trade, Competitiveness, Exports, Imports, Poultry, Commerce, Compétitivité, Exportations, Importations, Volailles |
| Date: | 2024–12–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04829482 |
| By: | Clemence M. Idoux; Viola Corradini |
| Abstract: | Differences in school choice by race contribute to school segregation and unequal access to effective schools. Conditional on test score and district of residence, Black and Hispanic families consistently choose schools with fewer white and Asian students, lower average achievement, and lower value-added. This paper combines unique survey data and administrative data from New York City to identify the determinants of racial disparities in school choice and shows that attending a more diverse middle school can mitigate racial choice gaps. Instrumental variable estimates show that middle school students exposed to more diverse peers apply to and enroll in high schools that are also more diverse. These effects particularly benefit Black and Hispanic students who, as a result, enroll in higher value-added high schools. A post-application survey of guardians of high school applicants suggests that most cross-race differences in choice stem from information gaps and homophily in preferences for school demographics. The survey results also reveal that exposure to diverse middle school peers reduces racial differences in choices by addressing these underlying determinants: it increases preferences for peer diversity and broadens the range of known school options. |
| JEL: | C26 I2 I28 |
| Date: | 2024–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:33179 |
| By: | Claudia Olivetti (Dartmouth College); Jessica Pan (National University of Singapore); Barbara Petrongolo |
| Abstract: | This chapter traces the evolution of the study of gender in the labor market, focusing on how academic thinking on this topic has evolved alongside real world developments in gender inequality from the 1980s to the present. We present a simple model of female labor supply to illustrate how various forces discussed in the literature (e.g., productivity differentials, unequal gender roles, wage markdowns) affect the gender earnings gap. A major development in the literature is a clearer distinction between intrinsic differences in preferences and skills between men and women versus differential constraints in driving gender gaps. We discuss insights from research on the relative importance of these explanations, and the implications for economic efficiency. We highlight that much of the literature today emphasizes the relevance of gendered constraints, where women and men typically face differential trade-offs between family and career, with implications for job sorting, job search, and earnings. These constraints have their roots in gender roles within the household that are shaped by wider societal norms. We review recent research that establishes the relevance of identity and norms for understanding gender inequalities in the labor market, both on the supply-side and on the demand-side, as well as what drives the formation and evolution of these norms. Finally, we conclude with suggestions for future research. |
| Date: | 2024–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2433 |
| By: | Hinh T. Dinh |
| Abstract: | This paper was originally published on The South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) In order for Africa to raise living standards, create employment for youth and diversify exports, it must industrialise. Until recently, sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries made limited progress in manufacturing value addition and employment, mirroring the de-industrialisation trend seen in many developing countries. To propel industrialisation, SSA countries should adopt flexible strategies that foster structural transformation and boost productivity in both large and small enterprises, whilst taking into account the environmental impact of industrialisation, given Africa’s susceptibility to climate change. The G20 has long recognised the importance of industrialisation on the continent. This policy insight examines the Indonesian and Indian G20 presidencies and assesses how they have addressed Africa’s priorities and concerns in terms of industrialisation. It also sets out recommendations for upcoming G20 presidencies. |
| Date: | 2024–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ocp:pbtrad:pbnn_38 |
| By: | Daniel Thiel (Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord); Erick Leroux (Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Université Sorbonne Paris Nord); Emmanuel Labarbe (UBM - Université Bordeaux Montaigne, D2iA - Dynamiques, Interactions, Interculturalité Asiatiques - ULR - La Rochelle Université - UBM - Université Bordeaux Montaigne, MICA - Médiation, Information, Communication, Art - UBM - Université Bordeaux Montaigne) |
| Abstract: | In order to reduce overtourism and traffic congestion, local authorities may have to divert recreational vehicle traffic to off-site service areas. The problem that will arise is how best to accommodate different types of users with opposing preferences in the same area, some wanting to be as close as possible to the major site to be visited, others seeking peace and quiet. We have represented their specific attitudes using a two-stage decision-making process via a conjunctive model followed by a compensatory model. We then propose to model three strategies, seeking either to optimise customer attractiveness, or profit, or space occupation, in order to define a location, capacity and price for this shared area. Using a realistic data set, the results show that economic performance follows a concave curve as a function of the population mix. Moreover, only the strategy of maximising attractiveness suggests always mixing users in the same area. |
| Keywords: | overtourism recreational vehicles service areas optimisation heterogeneous preferences, overtourism, recreational vehicles, service areas, optimisation, heterogeneous preferences |
| Date: | 2023–11–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04811280 |
| By: | Pavinee Pongpunpurt (TBI - Toulouse Biotechnology Institute - INSA Toulouse - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Toulouse - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - UT - Université de Toulouse - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, Faculté d'ingénierie, Université Chulalongkorn, Bangkok 10330); Pascal Guiraud (TBI - Toulouse Biotechnology Institute - INSA Toulouse - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Toulouse - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - UT - Université de Toulouse - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Ligia Barna (TBI - Toulouse Biotechnology Institute - INSA Toulouse - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Toulouse - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - UT - Université de Toulouse - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Nattawin Chawaloesphonsiya (Faculté d'ingénierie, Université Chulalongkorn, Bangkok 10330); Pisut Painmanakul (Faculté d'ingénierie, Université Chulalongkorn, Bangkok 10330) |
| Abstract: | Stratégies de gestion circulaire des déchets plastiques : Une étude de cas à Bangkok, Thaïlande. |
| Keywords: | recyclage, plastique, centre commercial, acteurs |
| Date: | 2024–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04815555 |
| By: | Pavinee Pongpunpurt (Chulalongkorn University [Bangkok], TBI - Toulouse Biotechnology Institute - INSA Toulouse - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Toulouse - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - UT - Université de Toulouse - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Pascal Guiraud (TBI - Toulouse Biotechnology Institute - INSA Toulouse - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Toulouse - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - UT - Université de Toulouse - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Ligia Barna (TBI - Toulouse Biotechnology Institute - INSA Toulouse - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - Toulouse - INSA - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées - UT - Université de Toulouse - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Nattawin Chawaloesphonsiya (Chulalongkorn University [Bangkok]); Pisut Painmanakul (Chulalongkorn University [Bangkok]) |
| Abstract: | Analyse de l'impact de la récupération des ressources pour la gestion des déchets plastiques dans les centres commerciaux : Une étude de cas à Bangkok, Thaïlande |
| Keywords: | recyclage, plastique, centre commercial, acteurs, flux, ACV, économie |
| Date: | 2024–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04815518 |