|
on South East Asia |
| By: | Amory Gethin (WIL - World Inequality Lab , PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Thanasak Jenmana (WIL - World Inequality Lab , PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes how democratization in Southeast Asia has led to the politicization of social and economic inequalities since the 1990s. Drawing on political attitudes surveys, we document how historical legacies, the structure of inequality, and institutional dynamics contributed to differentially structure political cleavages in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines. Ethnic inequalities in Malaysia and regional inequalities in Thailand played a key role in fostering the emergence of strong class divides in these two countries. In Indonesia, by contrast, the rise of new parties mainly used as political vehicles to support their leaders has eroded pre-existing religious and socioeconomic cleavages. The Philippines' highly unstable party system led to a third trajectory, whereby class divides have been strong, but have lacked the conditions required for their institutionalization and stabilization over time. We are grateful to Clara Martínez-Toledano, Thomas Piketty, Dirk Tomsa, and Andreas Ufen for their useful comments. |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wilwps:halshs-03215872&r= |
| By: | Amory Gethin (WIL - World Inequality Lab , PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Thanasak Jenmana (WIL - World Inequality Lab , PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes how democratization in Southeast Asia has led to the politicization of social and economic inequalities since the 1990s. Drawing on political attitudes surveys, we document how historical legacies, the structure of inequality, and institutional dynamics contributed to differentially structure political cleavages in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines. Ethnic inequalities in Malaysia and regional inequalities in Thailand played a key role in fostering the emergence of strong class divides in these two countries. In Indonesia, by contrast, the rise of new parties mainly used as political vehicles to support their leaders has eroded pre-existing religious and socioeconomic cleavages. The Philippines' highly unstable party system led to a third trajectory, whereby class divides have been strong, but have lacked the conditions required for their institutionalization and stabilization over time. We are grateful to Clara Martínez-Toledano, Thomas Piketty, Dirk Tomsa, and Andreas Ufen for their useful comments. |
| Date: | 2021–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-03215872&r= |
| By: | Dzung Bui (Philipps University Marburg); Lena Draeger (Leibniz University of Hannover); Bernd Hayo (Philipps University Marburg); Giang NghiemŸ (Leibniz University of Hannover) |
| Abstract: | In response to the economic crisis created by the COVID-19 pandemic, many governments provided financial assistance to households. Using representative consumer surveys conducted during the pandemic in 2020, we examine the effects of this fiscal policy instrument on households in two emerging economies, Vietnam and Thailand. Our paper contributes to the literature by studying consumer sentiment and durable spending responses to government financial support and the underlying transmission channels for these responses. We find that government support improves consumer sentiment and increases the likelihood of durable spending. Possible channels for these effects include more optimistic macroeconomic expectations and higher trust in the government's ability to deal with the pandemic, as well as less concern about the general impact of the crisis. We also find that financial support improves individuals' mental health and life satisfaction. Our results suggest that government financial support not only helps stimulate the economy but also enhances people's well-being more generally. |
| Keywords: | Fiscal policy; Financial support of households; Consumer sentiment; Durables spending; Expectations; Government trust; COVID-19; Thailand; Vietnam. |
| JEL: | E62 E71 D12 D83 H31 |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mar:magkse:202120&r= |
| By: | Gentile, Elisabetta (Asian Development Bank); Li, Gen (National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan); Mariasingham, Mahinthan Joseph (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | Since the onset of the ongoing United States (US)–People’s Republic of China (PRC) trade dispute in 2017, stakeholders and experts alike have expressed deep concerns that the tensions would come at a cost for the countries involved and the global economy. In this paper, we endeavor to quantify this cost by using a computable general equilibrium model based on the 2017 Asian Development Bank Multi-regional Input-Output Tables. We construct three scenarios: the baseline or business-as-usual (BAU) scenario; scenario 1, based on the bilateral measures implemented as of May 2019; and scenario 2, corresponding to a full-scale tariff war where both countries impose an additional 25% tariff on all bilateral imports. We find that scenario 1 is associated with a contraction of gross domestic product (GDP) with respect to the baseline by 0.17% in the US and 0.36% in the PRC. Employment contracts by 0.24% in the US and 0.55% in the PRC. Similarly, consumption, and investment decrease by 0.14% and 0.45%, respectively in the US, and by 0.20% and 0.64% in the PRC. Scenario 2 is associated with an even larger contraction in trade flows, which leads to larger decreases in GDP, employment, consumption, and investment in both economies. We observe trade diversion to other Asian economies, with Japan, Malaysia, the Republic of Korea, and Viet Nam benefiting the most, but sectoral analysis shows that export-competing sectors to the PRC in other Asian countries stand to benefit from the ongoing trade dispute, whereas sectors that supply to the PRC stand to suffer. |
| Keywords: | computable general equilibrium (CGE) model; input output; Multi-regional Input-Output Tables (MRIOT) |
| JEL: | D57 D58 F13 F17 |
| Date: | 2020–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0620&r= |
| By: | Lionel Fontagné (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Michela Limardi (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, RIME-Lab - Recherche Interdisciplinaire en Management et Économie Lab - ULR 7396 - UA - Université d'Artois - Université de Lille) |
| Abstract: | Can preferential market access help to enforce Labor Laws in beneficiary countries? The Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) is accorded conditional on compliance with labor rights. The United States scheme leaves room for petitioning and revising the scheme upon request by interest groups. We here focus on such a review episode, and ask whether it led to the better enforcement of domestic Labor Laws in Indonesia. Using data from Indonesian Manufacturing firms, we show that GSP renegotiation combined with the activism of workers' rights groups helped increase firm-level average wages up to the minimum wage level, not only inside but also outside the export sector. GSP leverage allowed labor NGOs to act more effectively by putting the violation of national Labor Laws and poor working conditions under the international spotlight. |
| Keywords: | GSP,labor standards,NGOs,wage determination |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-03223795&r= |
| By: | Lionel Fontagné (UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPII - Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales - Centre d'analyse stratégique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Michela Limardi (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, RIME-Lab - Recherche Interdisciplinaire en Management et Économie Lab - ULR 7396 - UA - Université d'Artois - Université de Lille) |
| Abstract: | Can preferential market access help to enforce Labor Laws in beneficiary countries? The Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) is accorded conditional on compliance with labor rights. The United States scheme leaves room for petitioning and revising the scheme upon request by interest groups. We here focus on such a review episode, and ask whether it led to the better enforcement of domestic Labor Laws in Indonesia. Using data from Indonesian Manufacturing firms, we show that GSP renegotiation combined with the activism of workers' rights groups helped increase firm-level average wages up to the minimum wage level, not only inside but also outside the export sector. GSP leverage allowed labor NGOs to act more effectively by putting the violation of national Labor Laws and poor working conditions under the international spotlight. |
| Keywords: | GSP,labor standards,NGOs,wage determination |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-03223795&r= |
| By: | Pelzl, Paul; Poelhekke, Steven |
| Abstract: | We analyze the local effect of exogenous shocks to the value of mineral deposits on a panel of manufacturing plants in Indonesia. We introduce heterogeneity in natural resource extraction methods, which helps to explain the mixed evidence found in the `Dutch disease' literature. In districts where mineral extraction is relatively capital intensive, mining booms cause virtually no upward pressure on manufacturing wages, and both producers of more heavily traded and relatively less-traded manufacturing goods benefit from mining booms in terms of employment. In contrast, labor-intensive mining booms drive up local wages such that heavily traded goods producers respond by reducing employment. |
| Keywords: | Dutch disease; Indonesia; labor intensity; mining; Natural resources; traded sector |
| JEL: | F00 L16 L60 L72 O12 O13 Q30 |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15271&r= |
| By: | Arief Anshory Yusuf; Putri Riswani Halim |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the labour market dynamics in Indonesia from 2001 to 2015 and explores the role of the changing nature of occupational employment in explaining the rising earnings inequality during the same period. First, we find evidence of a disproportionate increase in the returns to tertiary education, the increasing shares of highly skilled and elementary workers, and a sign of job polarization. Second, we find evidence of job polarization in the periods 2005-10 and 2005-15. |
| Keywords: | Labour market dynamics, Inequality, Occupations, Employment, Earnings inequality |
| Date: | 2021 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp-2021-81&r= |
| By: | Riaño, Juan Felipe; Valencia Caicedo, Felipe |
| Abstract: | As part of its Cold War counterinsurgency operations in Southeast Asia, the U.S. government conducted a "Secret War" in Laos from 1964-1973. This war constituted one of the most intensive bombing campaigns in human history. As a result, Laos is now severely contaminated with UXO (Unexploded Ordnance) and remains one of the poorest countries in the world. In this paper we document the negative long-term impact of conflict on economic development, using highly disaggregated and newly available data on bombing campaigns, satellite imagery and development outcomes. We find a negative, significant and economically meaningful impact of bombings on nighttime lights, expenditures and poverty rates. Almost 50 years after the conflict officially ended, bombed regions are poorer today and are growing at slower rates than unbombed areas. A one standard deviation increase in the total pounds of bombs dropped is associated with a 9.3% fall in GDP per capita. To deal with the potential endogeneity of bombing, we use as instruments the distance to the Vietnamese Ho Chi Minh Trail as well as US military airbases outside Laos. Using census data at the village and individual levels, we show the deleterious impact of UXOs in terms of health, as well as education, structural transformation and rural-urban migration. |
| Keywords: | Cold War; conflict; Development; growth; health; Human Capital; Laos; migration; structural transformation; UXO |
| JEL: | D74 N10 N15 O10 O53 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15349&r= |
| By: | Cirera, Xavier; Comin, Diego; Cruz, Marcio; Lee, Kyungmin |
| Abstract: | We collect data on the sophistication of technologies used at the business function level for a representative sample of firms from Vietnam, Senegal and the Brazilian state of Ceará. Our analysis finds a large variance in technology sophistication across the business functions of a firm. Specifically, the within-firm variance in technology sophistication is greater than the variance in sophistication across firms, which in turn is greater than the variance in sophistication across regions or countries. We document a stable cross-firm relationship between technology at the business function and at the firm level that we name the technology curve. We uncover significant heterogeneity in the slope of technology curves across business functions, a finding consistent with non-homotheticities in firm-level technology aggregators. Firm-productivity is positively associated to both the within-firm variance and average level of technology sophistication. Development accounting exercises show that cross-firm variation in technology accounts for one third of cross-firm differences in productivity, and one fifth of the agricultural vs. non-agricultural gap in cross-country differences in firm productivity. |
| Date: | 2020–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15427&r= |
| By: | Cosar, Kerem; Thomas, Benjamin |
| Abstract: | Motivated by the historically tense geopolitical situation in Southeast Asia, we simulate the potential closure of key maritime waterways in the region to predict the impact on trade and welfare. We generate initial (unobstructed) and counterfactual (rerouted) least-cost maritime paths between trading countries, and use the distances of these routes in a workhorse model of international trade to estimate welfare effects. We find heterogeneous and economically significant reductions in real GDP, and show the magnitude of welfare loss is directly correlated with military spending as a proportion of GDP, suggesting nations may be responding to economic security threats posed by such potential conflicts. |
| Keywords: | international trade; Military Spending; quantitative trade models |
| JEL: | F14 F5 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15414&r= |
| By: | Bryan, Gharad (London School of Economics); Chowdhury, Shyamal (University of Sydney); Mobarak, Ahmed Mushfiq (Yale University); Morten, Melanie (Stanford University); Smits, Joeri (Harvard Kennedy School) |
| Abstract: | Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs aim to reduce poverty or achieve other social goals by making the transfers conditional upon the receivers' actions. Conditions are designed to encourage some desirable behavior that recipients might otherwise under-invest in. An unintended consequence of the conditionality may be to distort recipients' actions in ways that lower their welfare. The transfer size plays an important role in shaping such distortionary effects. In certain circumstances, a larger transfer increases distortion more than that it raises benefits from stronger encouragement, implying that (i) there is an optimal transfer size for CCTs, and (ii) unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) may be better than CCTs when the transfer amount is large. We illustrate a range of distortions arising from CCT programs around the world. We then introduce an experimental design that permits a test of this distortionary effect, and implement it in a cash transfer program conditional on seasonal labor migration in rural Indonesia. We find that when the transfer size exceeds the amount required for travel expenses, distortion increases and CCT program outcomes deteriorate. |
| Keywords: | conditional cash transfers, distortion, seasonal migration |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14326&r= |
| By: | Chudik, Alexander; Mehdi, Raissi; Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M Hashem; Rebucci, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a threshold-augmented dynamic multi-country model (TGVAR) to quantify the macroeconomic effects of Covid-19. We show that there exist threshold effects in the relationship between output growth and excess global volatility at individual country levels in a significant majority of advanced economies and in the case of several emerging markets. We then estimate a more general multi-country model augmented with these threshold effects as well as long term interest rates, oil prices, exchange rates and equity returns to perform counterfactual analyses. We distinguish common global factors from trade-related spillovers, and identify the Covid-19 shock using GDP growth forecast revisions of the IMF in 2020Q1. We account for sample uncertainty by bootstrapping the multi-country model estimated over four decades of quarterly observations. Our results show that the Covid-19 pandemic will lead to a significant fall in world output that is most likely long-lasting, with outcomes that are quite heterogenous across countries and regions. While the impact on China and other emerging Asian economies are estimated to be less severe, the United States, the United Kingdom, and several other advanced economies may experience deeper and longer-lasting effects. Non-Asian emerging markets stand out for their vulnerability. We show that no country is immune to the economic fallout of the pandemic because of global interconnections as evidenced by the case of Sweden. We also find that long-term interest rates could fall significantly below their recent lows in core advanced economies, but this does not seem to be the case in emerging markets. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19; Global Volatility; international business cycle; Threshold Effects; Threshold-augmented Global VAR (TGVAR) |
| JEL: | C32 E44 F44 |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15312&r= |
| By: | Foad Shokrollahi; Davood Ahmadian; Luca Vincenzo Ballestra |
| Abstract: | The mixed fractional Brownian motion ($mfBm$) has become quite popular in finance, since it allows one to model long-range dependence and self-similarity while remaining, for certain values of the Hurst parameter, arbitrage-free. In the present paper, we propose approximate closed-form solutions for pricing arithmetic Asian options on an underlying described by the $mfBm$. Specifically, we consider both arithmetic Asian options and arithmetic Asian power options, and we obtain analytical formulas for pricing them based on a convenient approximation of the strike price. Both the standard $mfBm$ and the $mfBm$ with Poisson log-normally distributed jumps are taken into account. |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2105.06999&r= |
| By: | Jiang, Yi (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper introduces a new city-level panel dataset constructed using satellite nighttime light imagery and grid population data. The dataset contains over 1,500 cities covering 43 economies of Asia and the Pacific from 1992 to 2016. With the dataset, we perform a variety of analyses for Asia and the Pacific as a whole as well as five individual countries in the region. The exercise produces some novel evidence on several interrelated topics including urbanization status and patterns, relations between urbanization and economic growth, evolution of urban systems, primate cities, testing Zipf’s law and Gibrat’s law, the drivers of city growth, and emergence of city clusters. |
| Keywords: | city cluster; city growth; Gibrat’s law; nighttime lights; primate city; Zipf’s law |
| JEL: | O18 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2020–08–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0618&r= |
| By: | Cornelli, Giulio; Frost, Jon; Gambacorta, Leonardo; Rau, Raghavendra; Wardrop, Robert; Ziegler, Tania |
| Abstract: | Fintech and big tech platforms have expanded their lending around the world. We estimate that the flow of these new forms of credit reached USD 223 billion and USD 572 billion in 2019, respectively. China, the United States and the United Kingdom are the largest markets for fintech credit. Big tech credit is growing fast in China, Japan, Korea, Southeast Asia and some countries in Africa and Latin America. Cross-country panel regressions show that such lending is more developed in countries with higher GDP per capita (at a declining rate), where banking sector mark-ups are higher and where banking regulation is less stringent. Fintech credit is larger where there are fewer bank branches per capita. We also find that fintech and big tech credit are more developed where the ease of doing business is greater, and investor protection disclosure and the efficiency of the judicial system are more advanced, the bank credit-to-deposit ratio is lower and where bond and equity markets are more developed. Overall, alternative credit seems to complement other forms of credit, rather than substitute for them. |
| Keywords: | big tech; credit; data; digital innovation; Fintech; technology |
| JEL: | E51 G23 O31 |
| Date: | 2020–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15357&r= |
| By: | Chatterji, Shurojit (School of Economics, Singapore Management University); Liu, Peng (East China Normal University) |
| Abstract: | A common practice in dealing with the allocation of indivisible objects is to treat them as infinitely divisible and specify a fractional allocation, which is then implemented as a lottery on integer allocations that are feasible. The question we study is whether an arbitrary fractional allocation can be decomposed as a lottery on an arbitrary set of feasible integer allocations. The main result is a characterization of decomposable fractional allocations, that is obtained by transforming the decomposability problem into a maximum flow problem. We also provide a separate necessary condition for decomposability. |
| Keywords: | Indivisibility; Fractional allocation; Decomposability; Maximum flow |
| JEL: | C78 D82 |
| Date: | 2021–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:2021_003&r= |
| By: | Louise Guillouet; Amit Khandelwal; Rocco Macchiavello; Matthieu Teachout |
| Abstract: | A distinct feature of MNCs is a three-tier organizational structure: foreign managers (FMs) supervise domestic managers (DMs) who supervise production workers. Language barriers between FMs and DMs could impede transfers of management knowledge. We develop a model in which DMs learn general management by communicating with FMs, but communication effort is non-contractible. These conditions generate sub-optimal communication within the MNC. If communication is complementary with language skills, the planner could raise welfare by subsidizing foreign language acquisition. We experimentally assess the validity of the general skills and the complementarity assumptions in Myanmar, a setting where FMs and DMs communicate in English. The first experiment examines the general skills assumption by asking prospective employers at domestic firms to rate hypothetical job candidates. They value candidates with both higher English proficiency and MNC experience, a premium driven, in part, by frequent interactions with FMs. The second experiment examines the complementarity assumption by providing English training to a random sample of DMs working at MNCs. At endline, treated DMs have higher English proficiency, communicate more frequently with their FMs, are more involved in firm management, and perform better in simulated management tasks. Organizational barriers within MNCs can thus hinder knowledge transfers and lead to an under-investment in English relative to the social optimum. |
| JEL: | F0 F23 L20 |
| Date: | 2021–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28807&r= |
| By: | Gibbs, Michael (University of Chicago); Mengel, Friederike (University of Essex); Siemroth, Christoph (University of Mannheim) |
| Abstract: | Using personnel and analytics data from over 10,000 skilled professionals at a large Asian IT services company, we compare productivity before and during the work from home [WFH] period of the Covid-19 pandemic. Total hours worked increased by roughly 30%, including a rise of 18% in working after normal business hours. Average output did not significantly change. Therefore, productivity fell by about 20%. Time spent on coordination activities and meetings increased, but uninterrupted work hours shrank considerably. Employees also spent less time networking, and received less coaching and 1:1 meetings with supervisors. These findings suggest that communication and coordination costs increased substantially during WFH, and constituted an important source of the decline in productivity. Employees with children living at home increased hours worked more than those without children at home, and suffered a bigger decline in productivity than those without children. |
| Keywords: | collaboration, COVID-19, pandemic, productivity, remote working, telecommuting, working from home, work hours, work time |
| JEL: | D2 M5 |
| Date: | 2021–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14336&r= |
| By: | Yu, Jun (School of Economics, Singapore Management University) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a class of state-space models where the state equation is a local-to-unity process. The large sample theory is obtained for the least squares (LS) estimator of the autoregressive (AR) parameter in the AR representation of the model under two sets of conditions. In the first set of conditions, the error term in the observation equation is independent and identically distributed (iid), and the error term in the state equation is stationary and fractionally integrated with memory parameter H ϵ 2 (0; 1). It is shown that both the rate of convergence and the asymptotic distribution of the LS estimator depend on H. In the second set of conditions, the error term in the observation equation is independent but not necessarily identically distributed, and the error term in the state equation is strong mixing. When both error terms are iid, we also develop the asymptotic theory for an instrumental variable estimator. Special cases of our models are discussed. |
| Keywords: | State-space; Local-to-unity; O-U process; Fractional O-U process; Fractional Brownian motion; Fractional integration; Instrumental variable |
| JEL: | C12 C22 G01 |
| Date: | 2021–05–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:smuesw:2021_004&r= |
| By: | Chen, Liming (Asian Development Bank); Hasan, Rana (Asian Development Bank); Jiang, Yi (Asian Development Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper presents evidence on the spatial distribution and effects of urban agglomeration on firm innovation. It uses a unique dataset that consistently defines city boundaries and identifies firms’ innovation-related activities across 25 developing countries in Asia. We find firm innovation to be highly concentrated at the city level. We also find substantial gains from increases in city population in terms of firms’ propensity to introduce process and product innovations and undertake research and development (R&D) activities. These gains remain even after addressing concerns regarding endogeneity through the use of historical population data as instruments. In addition, we present evidence that knowledge spillovers are an important channel through which agglomeration effects occur, specifically through the presence of top-tier universities in a given city and by raising the effectiveness of firms’ R&D efforts. These findings confirm the existence and significance of urban economies of scale in augmenting the knowledge flows that generate innovation. |
| Keywords: | agglomeration economies; innovation; knowledge spillovers |
| JEL: | O10 O30 R11 |
| Date: | 2020–07–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0616&r= |
| By: | Tran, Thi Xuyen (Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate whether and how households adjust their agricultural practices such as cultivation and livestock to adapt to a severe typhoon.We, therefore, make use of a natural experiment coming from the strong typhoon Ketsana in 2009. We apply the difference-in-differences approach using micro-data on household level and spatial data of this severe typhoon. Our empirical findings suggest that households alter their agricultural activities in response to a strong typhoon. While they decrease the crops-planted area, they tend to purchase more livestock in the short term and in the medium term. Our paper not only indicates the adjustment to the crop-livestock system as an adaptation strategy to a severe typhoon, but it also is a warning about the contraction of crops production in the aftermath of this type of event. |
| Keywords: | Typhoon; Agriculture; Crops; Livestock; Vietnam |
| JEL: | O12 O13 Q12 Q15 Q54 |
| Date: | 2021–05–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:vhsuwp:2021_188&r= |
| By: | Sansia Blackmore; Reneé van Eyden |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the fundamental or deep causes of poverty persistence, which remains a central challenge of the modern world. In theory, rising political participation in a democracy operationalises checks on state predation and cultivates development-enabling state capacity. This did not materialise post-colonial sub-Saharan Africa. The theoretical foundation of this premise is further brought into question by the development achievements of strong, capable non-democracies like Singapore and Hong Kong. This study uses a dynamic panel-data model specification and General Methods of Moments for a sample of 105 countries over the period 1981 to 2015 to explore a probabilistic development hypothesis that fuses broad institutionalism with modernisation human empowerment. In this model, regime-independent state capacity is relied on to trigger the transformational impetus associated with rising existential security, autonomy and individual agency. Ensuing shifts in societal value orientations towards emancipative mindsets then drive the progression towards prosperity and liberty. The results show that the poor-country in human empowerment, represented by mind-broadening education and emancipative mindset then drives the progression towards prosperity and liberty. The results show that the poor-country deficit in human empowerment, represented by mind-broadening education and emancipative values, dwarfs the shortcomings in all other drivers of prosperity, including exports and investment. The findings rule against geography and democracy as fundamental causes of poverty or prosperity. |
| Keywords: | Poverty Reversal, institutions, State Capacity, Human Empowerment |
| JEL: | O43 I25 P16 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:832&r= |