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on South East Asia |
| By: | Taguchi, Hiroyuki; Lar, Ni |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the sectoral and intertemporal impacts of international emigrant remittances by using a vector auto-regression (VAR) estimation focusing on Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar and Vietnam (CLMV countries). The reason for targeting the CLMV countries is that they have still depended largely on remittance-earnings from their emigrant workers in their economies, and that the macroeconomic impacts of received remittances would be critical for their sustainable growth. The empirical study identified the decline in manufacturing-service ratio (the Dutch Disease effect) as a sectoral effect of remittances, and also the decline in investment-consumption ratio (the deteriorated capital accumulation effect) as their intertemporal effect, judging from the causalities and dynamic responses from remittances to both ratio in the VAR estimation outcomes. The strategic implication is that the CLMV countries should establish a framework to mobilize their remittance-earnings for more productive use. |
| Keywords: | Emigrant’s remittances, Dutch Disease, Capital accumulation, Vector auto-regression estimation, CLMV |
| JEL: | F22 O53 |
| Date: | 2017–08–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:80637&r=sea |
| By: | ENOMOTO Shunichi |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes a framework to analyze China's One Belt One Road Initiative (hereinafter, "Initiative") as the development of its foreign aid policy, and helps Japan take appropriate action toward China's New World Order. The major results of this study are as follows. First, the Initiative envisions a new world economic zone across the Eurasian continent based on land traffic systems, as alternatives to the world economy dominated by the United States, European Union (EU), and Japan based on marine traffic. Second, the Initiative, however, shares development-investment characteristics with other emerging donors, and tends to give priority to the short-term interests of China's state-owned enterprises, the project builders of China's foreign aid, over the recipient's long-term development. Third, China's aid to African nations in the 2000s is blamed as economic deprivation in the name of aid, and the same problem occurred in Sri Lanka (Laos has managed to control China's aid harmlessly and succeeded in generating profit). Fourth, Laos' success is owed not only to its solid governance and concrete development scheme but also to the multinational aid environment whereby it can receive economic aid from Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, and EU members, whereas Sri Lanka can only seek aid from China. Fifth, Japan needs to choose Initiative projects leading to the recipients' long-term development, and must keep a distance from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to strengthen the multinational aid environment in the One Belt One Road regions. |
| Date: | 2017–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:rpdpjp:17021&r=sea |
| By: | Nasrudin, Rus'an |
| Abstract: | Under a question whether corruption acts as grease or sand for development, this paper estimates the effect of special allocation fund (SAF) or DAK in road sector to infrastructure provision (road) at the district level in Indonesia. The political fragmentation and its political earmarking, defined as the effective number of central parliamentary members from a district are used as an instrumental variable (IV) for the amount of SAF in each district combined with a difference-in-difference measure for the rural road. Such empirical strategy is adopted to tackle three endogeneity problems: selection bias, measurement error and reverse causality between SAF allocation and rural road. First I find that the influence of political earmark is statistically significant than the formula-based approach. Second, under the influence of political earmarking, the IV result shows that the SAF allocation does not affect a rural-road provision in Indonesia in the early implementation of fiscal decentralisation. It seems that allocation based on the block grant or general allocation fund is having more clear effect in the presence of earmarking of special allocation fund. %A billion IDR the allocation is associated with 7 pp. increase in rural with asphalt road. The result challenges the sand hypothesis in the context of decentralising public fund in road sector in Indonesia in the early implementation of decentralisation period. |
| Keywords: | pork-barrel; road; special allocation fund; Indonesia |
| JEL: | H30 H60 O12 |
| Date: | 2015–12–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:80578&r=sea |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | A cyclical upswing in growth is under way driven by goods trade. But improved momentum has yet to extend beyond the export-oriented sectors, and structural headwinds to growth from aging, tighter foreign worker policies, and slow productivity growth remain. Inflation has turned positive after two years of subzero readings and the financial cycle is firming. Singapore’s external position continues to be substantially stronger than warranted by medium-term fundamentals and desired policies. Risks to the outlook are broadly balanced. Being highly open to trade and financial flows, Singapore stands to benefit from improving global sentiment. But more inward-looking policies in major economies and slowdowns in emerging economies would have an adverse impact. Domestic risks mainly relate to elevated household and corporate sector leverage, and the disruptive potential of economic restructuring through new technologies and automation for employment and inequality. |
| Date: | 2017–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/240&r=sea |
| By: | Bayudan, Connie B.; Baje, Lora Kryz |
| Abstract: | There are few studies in the Philippines that analyze poverty dynamics; and studies that analyze the effects of weather variability on food poverty dynamics are even fewer. Given that there are some sectors that are more adversely affected by the changing weather patterns, a study analyzing the effects of weather variability on poverty is essential. Using a simple spells approach to understand the food poverty dynamics in the Philippines, this paper finds that deviation of rainfall from its normal values and other key variables such as education, employment, assets, and armed conflict affect chronic food poverty. A discussion of some inputs to policies is provided. |
| Keywords: | Philippines, chronic food poverty, spells approach, food poverty, rainfall |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2017-25&r=sea |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Singapore: Selected Issues |
| Date: | 2017–07–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:17/241&r=sea |
| By: | Dacuycuy, Connie B.; Baje, Lora Kryz |
| Abstract: | Weather is an integral part of our life and weather shocks can have severe implications on income and household consumption. Given evidence that points to altered patterns of weather parameters resulting from climate change, this paper aims to contribute to poverty studies in the Philippines by analyzing the effects of geographic attributes, like weather variability, on chronic and transient poverty. Based on the estimates of the generalized linear model, higher than normal rainfall contributes to a modest increase in chronic total and chronic food poverty in both urban and rural areas. In addition, asset ownership and college education have the most impact on the reduction of both types of poverty. |
| Keywords: | Philippines, weather variability, poverty dynamics, components approach, chronic poverty, transient poverty, food poverty |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2017-24&r=sea |
| By: | Jia Pu; Katherine G. Hastings; Derek Boothroyd; Powell O. Jose; Sukyung Chung; Janki B. Shah; Mark R. Cullen; Latha P. Palaniappan; David H. Rehkopf |
| Abstract: | This study aims to examine geographical differences in CVD mortality among Asian American subgroups living in the United States and whether they are consistent with geographical differences observed among non†Hispanic whites. |
| Keywords: | epidemiology, geographical disparities, mortality rate, race and ethnicity |
| JEL: | I |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:ea84496772c3457eaa7f5c0bfdc0473a&r=sea |
| By: | Saing, Chan Hang; Cannonier, Colin |
| Abstract: | We exploit the exogenous variations of arsenic contamination across regions in Cambodia and apply two-period difference-in-differences (DID) to examine the impact of arsenic-contaminated groundwater on school participation among children aged 5-17. We find that conditional on the DID assumption, a standard deviation increase in the arsenic reduced the probability of having ever been enrolled for children aged 5-17 by approximately 0.017. The effects for girls are slightly larger than those for boys. Our results are robust to adding parental education, province fixed effects and zone trends. We also show that children of all specific age groups experienced the reduction in their probabilities of having ever been enrolled, while the children, who were between 12 and 17 years old, currently enrolled and active in the labor market, experienced more reduction in school enrollment relative to their peers, who were not active in the labor market. |
| Keywords: | Arsenic,Cambodia,Difference-in-Differences,School participation |
| JEL: | O15 I28 |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:95&r=sea |
| By: | Hooy, Chee-Wooi; Lee, Meng-Horng; Chong, Terence Tai Leung |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the possible determinants for the sources of variations in ASEAN stock returns across financial crises. Using a comprehensive data of 4043 firms from six ASEAN countries and 40 industries, we find that lagged country return and concentration are among the determinants that explain the country factors in the region, while size proved to be the determinant of industry factors for both tradable and non-tradable industries. In general, a higher previous return and lower industrial concentration would increase the country factor. We documented the loss of explanatory power of these determinants in the presence of crisis effects. |
| Keywords: | International diversification; Country effects; Industry effects; Determinants; ASEAN |
| JEL: | F21 G11 G15 |
| Date: | 2017–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:80574&r=sea |
| By: | Shahbaz, Muhammad; Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain; Mahalik, Mantu Kumar; Sadorsky, Perry |
| Abstract: | We examine the causal relationship between globalization, economic growth and energy consumption for 25 developed economies using both time series and panel data techniques for the period 1970-2014. Due to the presence of cross-sectional dependence in the panel (countries from Asia, North America, Western Europe and Oceania), we employ the Pesaran (2007) CIPS test to ascertain unit root properties. The Westerlund (2007) cointegration test indicates the presence of a long-run association between globalization, economic growth and energy consumption. Long-run heterogeneous panel elasticities are estimated through the Pesaran (2006) common correlated effects mean group (CMG) estimator and the Eberhardt and Teal (2010) augmented mean group (AMG) estimator. The causality between the variables is examined via Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012) and, Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) Granger causality tests. The empirical results reveal that, for most countries, globalization increases energy consumption. In the USA and UK globalization is negatively correlated with energy consumption. The causality analysis indicates the presence of the globalization driven energy consumption hypothesis. This empirical analysis suggests insightful policy guidelines for policy makers using globalization as an economic tool to utilize energy efficiently for sustainable economic development in the long-run. |
| Keywords: | Globalization, Energy Consumption, Causality |
| JEL: | A1 |
| Date: | 2017–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:80718&r=sea |
| By: | Asongu, Simplice; Asongu, Ndemaze |
| Abstract: | Purpose- We respond to some challenges in the transition to Sustainable Development Goals by examining the correlations between mobile and inclusive development (quality of growth, poverty and inequality) in 93 developing countries for the year 2011. Design/methodology/approach- Mobile money service entails: ‘mobile used to pay bills’ and ‘mobile used to receive/send money’. Interactive Ordinary Least Squares are employed. Findings- The following findings are established. First, increasing use of the mobile phones to pay bills: is positively linked to ‘quality of growth’ in lower-middle income countries (LMIC) and negatively correlated with inequality in Latin American countries (LA). Second, growing use of mobile phones to send/receive money is negatively associated with poverty in Asia and Pacific (AP) and Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Originality/value- Macroeconomic data on mobile money service is scarce. No study to the best of our knowledge has used this macroeconomic mobile money service data before. |
| Keywords: | Mobile money services, Quality of growth, poverty, inequality |
| JEL: | G20 I10 I20 I32 O40 |
| Date: | 2017–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:80648&r=sea |