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on South East Asia |
| By: | Tijaja, Julia (ASEAN Secretariat); Faisal, Mohammad (Center of Reform on Economics Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | The gains of a country from participating in global value chains (GVCs) will depend on the productive activities taking place in its jurisdiction and their linkages to the domestic economy. Lead firms’ decision on where to locate and how to coordinate production activities is influenced, among others, by industrial policies. On the one side, policy space provides governments with some leverage in guiding economic activities and influencing development outcomes. On the other hand, policy risks have the potential to adversely affect the outcomes. This study focuses on industrial policies in Indonesia, using the mineral sector as a mini case study. The case study assesses the Indonesian Government’s recent effort to boost domestic value addition in the sector. This paper argues that the effectiveness of government policies in maximizing the gains from GVC participation depends not only on policy design, but also on policy consistency and coherence, effective implementation, and coordination. |
| Keywords: | industrial policy; Indonesia; global value chain; upgrading |
| JEL: | L52 L70 O25 |
| Date: | 2014–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbewp:0411&r=sea |
| By: | Nguyen, Huy Quynh |
| Abstract: | The success of exports in Vietnam has become a driving force for economic growth since the reform in 1986. The paper uses data from 2001 to 2004 to estimates the gravity model for Vietnam’s exports with the random effect estimation. The empirical results show that the bilateral trade of Vietnam has positive relationship with the country’s GDP and importing countries’ GDP. Furthermore, it has a negative relationship with distance from Vietnam to trading partners. These results are the same as the previous studies of the gravity model. Particularly, foreign direct investment, border effects and exchange rate play a significant role in promoting exports of Vietnam. Besides, the deepened integration into the region and world market also has significant impacts on expanding exports of Vietnam. Therefore, these factors have contributed to explaining the success in exports of Vietnam over the past few years. |
| Keywords: | Gravity model, exports , determinants of exports |
| JEL: | F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2014–10–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:59363&r=sea |
| By: | Masih, Mansur; Majid, Hamdan Abdul |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the volatility and correlations of stock returns of some crisis-hit countries such as, US, Greece, Thailand and Malaysia during the major global financial crises since 1992. The paper makes an attempt to address the following two issues: Firstly, to measure the extent of volatility of the stock indices under study and also the correlation of the Malaysian index with the other country indices. Secondly, given the correlations, how best can a normal investor harness them to ensure maximum return in the short and the long run with a particular reference to the correlation between the Malaysian index and other country indices. The MGARCH-DCC approach is employed for the analysis. The findings tend to indicate that the investors’ behaviour converges and correlations are significantly higher across the two Asian countries in the sample. The level of volatilities of the indices’ return of all the four markets has increased significantly for the period under study. The level and magnitude of volatilities and correlations is consistently high between Malaysia and Thailand market (lowest of 0.02 in 1993 to highest of 0.65 in 1998) followed by US and Greece markets. Greece seems to be the most volatile market followed by Malaysia, US and Thailand (except for the period between 1993 and 1998). One possible explanation is that the contagion effect takes place early in the crisis and that herding behaviour dominates the latter stages of the crisis. For our second question, the apparent high correlation coefficients during crisis periods imply that the gain from international diversification by holding a portfolio consisting of diverse stocks from these contagion countries declines, since these stock markets are commonly exposed to systematic risk(beta). An increasing integration and stronger co-movement among stock markets will result in decreasing opportunity to gain from portfolio diversification. |
| Keywords: | Volatility, Correlations, portfolio diversification, MGARCH-DCC |
| JEL: | C22 C58 G11 G15 |
| Date: | 2013–08–25 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:58946&r=sea |
| By: | Masih, Mansur; Majid, Hamdan Abdul |
| Abstract: | This study accounts for the time-varying pattern of price shock transmission, exploring stock market co-movements using continuous wavelet coherency methodology to find the correlation analysis between stock market indices of Malaysia, Thailand (Asian), Greece (Europe) and United States, in the time-frequency domain of time-series data. We employ the Wavelet Coherence method with the consideration of the financial crisis episodes of 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, 1998 Russian Sovereign Debt Default, 9/11 Attack on World Trade Centre US, 2008 US Sub-Prime Mortgage Crisis and the recent 2010-2011 Greece Debt Crisis. Results tend to indicate that the relations among indices are strong but not homogeneous across time scales, that local phenomena are more evident than others in these markets and that there seems to be no quick transmission through markets around the world, but a significant time delay. The relations among these indices have changed and evolved through time, mostly due to the financial crises that occurred at different time periods. Results also favour the view that regionally and economically closer markets exhibit higher correlation and more short run co-movements among them. The high correlation between the two regional indices of Malaysia and Thailand, indicates that for the international investors, it is little gain to include both in their portfolio diversification. Strong co-movement is mostly confined to long-run fluctuations favouring contagion analysis. This indicates that shocks in the high frequency but low period are short term but shocks in the low frequency but high period are long term with the trend elements affecting the co-movements of the indices. The study of market correlations on the frequency-time scale domain using continuous wavelet coherency is appealing and can be an important tool in decision making for different types of investors. |
| Keywords: | stock market comovement; continuous wavelet transform; cross-wavelet; wavelet coherency; frequency-time scale domain |
| JEL: | C22 C58 E44 G15 |
| Date: | 2013–12–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:58313&r=sea |
| By: | Miyazaki, Suguru; Shimamura, Yasuharu |
| Abstract: | Utilizing original panel data collected in 2007 and 2010 in rural Indonesia for 2261 households located in 98 villages in 7 provinces, this paper investigates the food markets' functions with different extents of integration, and aims to interlink three important factors in the process of economic development — risk, infrastructure and welfare — of the rural poor. Focusing especially on irrigation systems and local paved roads, we explore the potential effect of infrastructure in relation to the global food price crisis that occurred in 2007–08 and thereafter affected poor households in rural Indonesia. The most important finding from our empirical analysis can be seen in the villages with relatively low integration to the surrounding markets, but which had access to irrigation systems. In those villages food prices, and in particular the price of rice, were kept lower, even when rural Indonesia experienced a spike in food prices. This implies that, although the implication is contrastive to rice producers (net sellers), irrigation facilities offset the negative effects for rural households by maintaining a relatively abundant food supply in local markets. Along with this investigation, the threshold estimation examines whether there exists a certain threshold for the proportion of local paved roads that divides villages according to either lower or higher spatial connectivity. Our results clearly indicate the existence of such a threshold. These findings suggest that when evaluating the potential role of irrigation and the effectiveness of irrigation development and management, it is important to pay more attention to the functions of the surrounding markets as related to rural road conditions, in addition to the direct impact of irrigation on agricultural productivity as it affects households. |
| Keywords: | risk , infrastructure , market integration , food price crisis , Indonesia |
| Date: | 2014–10–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jic:wpaper:81&r=sea |
| By: | Hakim, Idwan; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | The focus of this paper is to investigate the potential for portfolio diversification strategies based on investing across international markets or economic sectors, using Malaysia as a case study. Analysing the comovement and correlation between returns and volatilities of the different markets or assets, therefore, is the key to gauge the potential benefits from diversification. Two important features of the comovement are their dynamic fluctuations across time period and time horizon or scales. Thus, the paper applies recent techniques of multivariate volatility modelling and wavelet transform, which can analyse time series over both the time and frequency domain. Our findings suggest that there are potential for gains from portfolio diversification strategies into both international markets, as well as sectors of the domestic stock market. There are international stock markets and domestic sectors which have low correlations and comovement with the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index. The low correlation makes it ideal to diversify the portfolio and reduce the overall investment risks. However, the findings also noted that the correlations vary across time and scales. Hence, fund managers need to be aware of the dynamics which may change at any particular point in time, which may affect the portfolio risks. |
| Keywords: | sectoral and international portfolio diversification, Malaysia, MGARCH-DCC, Wavelet coherence |
| JEL: | C22 C58 G11 G15 |
| Date: | 2014–09–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:58909&r=sea |
| By: | Swastika, Putri; Dewandaru, Ginanjar; Masih, Mansur |
| Abstract: | Mansur Masih3 Abstract This research studies the benefit of the practice of Restricted Short Selling (RSS) on the Islamic stocks. Benefit is defined as the influence of the application of RSS on the stock returns and ultimately, on the market. Malaysia is used as a case study. Using dynamic heterogeneous panel techniques, it is found that RSS brings long-term positive influence on the stocks. However, panel Granger causality analysis implied that it is indeed stock return which causes RSS, not the other way around. Henceforth, our findings tend to suggest to the policy makers, to revisit the permissibility of RSS in the Malaysian Islamic capital market (ICM). Moving forward, instead of having restricted short selling, a vibrant Islamic capital market should promote risk sharing instruments coupled with strengthened information dissemination. |
| Keywords: | Restricted Short Selling, Stock Returns, Islamic Capital Market, Pooled- Mean Group, Johansen Fisher Panel Cointegration, Panel Granger Causality |
| JEL: | C22 C58 G1 G18 |
| Date: | 2013–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:58833&r=sea |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Regional and Sustainable Development Department, ADB); ; |
| Abstract: | A robust and sustainable tax system requires good tax administration. This report compares the administrative frameworks, functions, and performances of tax administration bodies in 22 jurisdictions in Asia and the Pacific. The descriptive analysis is based on surveys of tax administration conducted in 2012 and 2013. The surveys attempt to provide internationally comparable data on aspects of the sample jurisdictions’ tax systems and their administration. Tentative conclusions emerge from the descriptive and comparative analysis. |
| Keywords: | tax system, tax administration, tax revenue, tax collection, nontax function, taxpayer, tax administration expenditure, tax expenditure, Electronic Tax Filing Systems, Electronic Tax Payment, Tax Debt Management, Administrative Review System, Gross Domestic Product, Internal Revenue Commission, taxation, fiscal resources, revenue bodies |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt146322&r=sea |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Strategy and Policy Department, ADB); ; |
| Abstract: | The 2013 Development Effectiveness Review (DEfR) is the seventh annual performance review of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the first to apply the revised corporate results framework. The DEfR uses the 89 performance indicators of the revised framework to assess progress in implementing Strategy 2020, ADB’s long-term strategic framework. It evaluates ADB’s strengths and identifies areas where performance needs to be improved. The findings of the 2013 DEfR will inform actions to improve ADB’s performance. |
| Keywords: | development effectiveness review, sults framework, performance, scorecard, progress in asia and the pacific, results, operational management, organizational management, challenges, actions, millennium development goal, financing, strategy 2020 core operational areas, success, outcome, outputs cofinancing, disbursement, processing time, budget, signals on track, off track, standard explanatory data, indicators target, performance |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt146413-2&r=sea |
| By: | Matsumoto, Haruka |
| Abstract: | This paper uses Taiwan's archival documents to reexamine the two Taiwan Strait crises and the characteristics of Chiang Kai-shek's strategic thinking. Section 2 examines the oscillation of U.S. policy concerning the ROC's offensive toward mainland China and the defense of the Da-chen islands before and after the initiation of the First Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1954-1955. Doing so will highlight the contradictory U.S. attitude that contributed to the crisis and weakened its ability to control Chiang. Section 3 focuses on Chiang Kai-shek's strategic vision toward East Asia. In particular, this section focuses on his strategic thinking and tries to assess whether or not he was a "reckless" or "irrational" leader as often described in the previous research on his personality. |
| Keywords: | Taiwan, China, East Asia, United States, Foreign policy, Foreign relations, International conflicts, Archives, Chiang Kai-shek, Taiwan Strait Crises, Quemoy, Da-chen |
| JEL: | F51 N45 Z00 |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper481&r=sea |
| By: | Nguyen, Anh; Nguyen, Mai; Doan, Hung |
| Abstract: | National Innovation Systems (NIS) plays a crucial role in countries’ efforts to catch up with technological advances which are critical for the long-term sustainable economic growth and development of countries. This paper provides a diagnostic review of the NIS in Viet Nam such that appropriate policies could be devised and im - plemented. This paper provides an analysis of the institutions, policies and linkages that characterize Viet Nam’s national innovation system. It focuses on the strengths and weaknesses of the nation’s system of innovation that Viet Nam has put in place in order to promote technological innovation for economic growth and development. The first part provides an overview of Viet Nam’s 20 years of economic reform as the context within which innovation takes place. The remainder offers a deeper insight into Viet Nam’s NIS, starting with the legal framework and institutions, including laws on science and technology, legislative government bodies and other supporting agencies. The current funding of R&D activities in general and in different sectors is given along with government’s attempts to encourage investment or financial support for R&D. The key actors in Viet Nam’s NIS are identified and investigated. The conclusion is a summary of rooms for improvement in Viet Nam’s NIS |
| Keywords: | Vietnam, Innovation System |
| JEL: | O3 O31 |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:58712&r=sea |
| By: | Senasu, Kalayanee; Singhapakdi, Anusorn |
| Abstract: | This research investigates the association between family, health, and job satisfaction, and happiness in Thailand. The data were collected by means of telephone survey questionnaires developed by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA). The research data are from simple random sampling and stratified multi-stage sampling from master 2012-NIDA (National Institute of Development Administration) poll data proportioned to the population, age, and household income in each region of Thailand. This poll data had a total of 1,004 respondents but this research focuses on employed people and consists of a total of 799 respondents. All research hypotheses were tested by means of hierarchical regression analysis and analysis of variance was used to verify some interesting issues relating to demographic factors. The analysis results indicate that all three types of satisfaction (i.e., family, health, and job satisfaction) have positive effects on happiness (measured in present and future happiness) in Thailand. Although only family satisfaction has a positive effect on future happiness, all three types of satisfaction have positive effects on present happiness. Additionally, among all three model variables, family satisfaction plays the most important role in predicting present and future aspects of happiness. Further, our results indicate that gender is of little influence as a moderator. Our results not only validate research findings in other countries but also verify the importance of subjective appreciation of life and happiness for public policy makers. |
| Keywords: | Family satisfaction , Health satisfaction , Job satisfaction , Happiness , Thailand |
| Date: | 2014–04–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jic:wpaper:76&r=sea |
| By: | Tran Quang, Tuyen |
| Abstract: | This study is the first to analyze the intensity of nonfarm participation and its correlates among ethnic minority households in the Northwest Mountains - the poorest region of Vietnam. We found that ethnic minority households depend heavily on agriculture for subsistence and their access to nonfarm employment is very limited. Households that participated in nonfarm activities have a much higher level of education, income, assets and a lower level of poverty than those without nonfarm participation. Factors affecting the level of nonfarm participation were examined by using a fractional logit model. The results show that education, notably among other factors, has a strongly increasing effect on the intensity of nonfarm participation. Having more annual crop land and water surface for aquaculture reduces the intensity of participation in nonfarm activities. In addition, some commune characteristics were found to be closely linked to the extent of nonfarm participation. A commune with nonfarm job opportunities and paved roads increases the intensity of nonfarm participation for households living in that commune. From the findings what policy implication can be drawn is that any poverty alleviation policies should aim at improving the access of ethnic minorities to education and nonfarm job opportunities. |
| Keywords: | fractional logit, ethnic minorities, intensity, nonfarm participation |
| JEL: | I38 J15 O12 |
| Date: | 2014–10–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:59158&r=sea |
| By: | Amjad, Rashid; Yusuf, Anam |
| Abstract: | The central issue that this paper analysis is the role the manufacturing sector can play in reviving and sustaining economic growth in Pakistan while generating more and better job opportunities as it has done in the fast-growing East and Southeast Asian economies.It identifies needed policy measures to revive growth in manufacturing as well as generating decent jobs: these cover macro, sectoral and trade policies and labour market reforms the critical role of well functioning labour market institutions that foster commitment to social justice. |
| Keywords: | manufacturing,economic growth, economic policies, labour policies |
| JEL: | O14 |
| Date: | 2014–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:59518&r=sea |
| By: | Jiranyakul, Komain |
| Abstract: | This study examines both short-run and long-run causal relationship between stock market capitalization, trade openness and economic growth in Thailand. Quarterly data over the period from the first quarter of 1993 to the fourth quarter of 2013 are used in the analysis. The results from this study show that there exists a unidirectional long-run causality running from stock market capitalization and trade openness to real GDP. In the short run, an increase in stock market capitalization causes economic growth while an increase in trade openness decreases it and vice versa. Furthermore, there exist short-run bidirectional negative causations between economic growth and trade openness. However, the short-run phenomena are temporary. Based upon the results from this study, policymakers should pay attention to measures that are able to enhance stock market capitalization and trade openness if the long-run target is to achieve high economic growth rate. |
| Keywords: | Economic growth, market capitalization, trade openness, cointegration, causality |
| JEL: | C22 F41 O11 |
| Date: | 2014–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:59652&r=sea |
| By: | International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept |
| Abstract: | KEY ISSUES Outlook and risks. Following an upturn in 2013, growth is expected to moderate somewhat during 2014-2015, narrowing the positive output gap. The impact of recovering demand in advanced economies is likely to be offset by the ongoing real appreciation of the currency and the gradual tightening in global monetary conditions. Transitional costs related to the economic restructuring (see next paragraph) are also expected to dampen growth in the near term. As a very open economy, Singapore is particularly exposed to external risks related to a protracted period of slower growth in advanced and emerging economies, a continued buildup and eventual unwinding of excess capacity in China, an abrupt surge in financial market volatility as investors reassess underlying risks, and geopolitical risks. Medium- and long-term challenges. The authorities focus squarely on the implementation of their medium-term economic restructuring plan. With the aim to boost the productivity of labor and land, the plan could set the stage for a new era of sustainable growth. However, productivity improvements may take some time to materialize. For example, the slowing inflow of foreign workers, a key part of the reform agenda, could moderate potential growth and lower competitiveness in light of the tight labor market. The social safety net is being strengthened in the context of a rapidly aging population. Policy assessment. Singapore continues to implement a strong set of macroeconomic and financial sector policies. The moderately tight monetary policy remains appropriate but the fiscal stance is looser than would be warranted by cyclical considerations. The 2014 budget focuses on noncyclical considerations, including support for companies’ efforts to raise productivity and additional social spending on healthcare for the elderly. The authorities’ plan to raise social and infrastructure spending by 1-2 percent of GDP over the medium term should help reduce the large current account surplus. Financial regulation and supervision is among the best globally and Singapore is a frontrunner in implementing global regulatory reforms. Macroprudential policies have contributed to cool the housing and car permit markets and good progress has been made in implementing key short•term FSAP recommendations. |
| Keywords: | Article IV consultation reports;Monetary policy;Real effective exchange rates;Macroprudential Policy;Financial sector;Fiscal policy;Fiscal reforms;Economic indicators;Staff Reports;Press releases;Singapore; |
| Date: | 2014–10–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:14/312&r=sea |
| By: | Yoshino, Naoyuki (Asian Development Bank Institute); Kaji, Sahoko (Asian Development Bank Institute); Asonuma, Tamon (Asian Development Bank Institute) |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses desirable exchange rate regimes and how countries can shift from their current regimes to these regimes over the medium term. We demonstrate the superiority of a basket-peg regime with the basket weight rule over a floating regime with the interest rate rule or the money supply rule in small open economies, during periods when volatility of exchange rates is moderate. Countries which currently have fixed exchange rates would be better moving toward either a basket-peg or a floating regime over the medium term. A shift to a basket-peg regime is preferred when exchange rate fluctuations are large. |
| Keywords: | exchange rate regimes; basket-peg; floating regime; interest rate rules |
| JEL: | E42 F33 F41 F42 |
| Date: | 2014–10–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0502&r=sea |
| By: | Nicola Kim Rowbotham, Adrian Saville & Douglas Mbululu |
| Abstract: | Increased globalisation, coupled with rising domestic competition, has led a growing number of firms to search beyond their traditional domestic markets for business opportunities in recent years. As a result, export-led economic growth has gained renewed attention amongst policy makers, particularly amongst those in industrialising nations, or so-called efficiency-driven economies. This search for drivers of economic growth has gained further impetus from the economic pressures brought about by the fall in growth in advanced markets following the global financial crisis coupled with the rising competitiveness of other industrialising emerging economies. A common policy proposal amongst countries trying to improve their competitiveness is to weaken the domestic exchange rate as a means to stimulate exports. However, depreciation also increases exchange rate risk. Given the renewed emphasis on this policy lever, this research examines the impact of exchange rate on export performance in a sample of nine efficiency-driven economies over the period 1990 to 2009. These economies that we survey include Brazil, the Dominican Republic, Malaysia, Mauritius, Mexico, Peru, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey, which all have floating exchange rate arrangements during the survey period. Panel data models using a fixed-effects method were used, and it was found that a weakening of the exchange rate does not necessarily improve export performance. To the contrary, for the nine countries surveyed, export growth seems to be associated with stronger exchange rates. Whilst our results suggest that the lag effect of exchange rate movement on export performance is slightly more pronounced, the relationship nevertheless remains statistically insignificant. |
| Keywords: | Exchange rate, export performance, efficiency-driven economy |
| JEL: | F31 F43 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:469&r=sea |
| By: | S. Mahendra Dev (Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research; Institute of Economic Growth) |
| Abstract: | Several countries in the Asia-Pacific region are experiencing demographic changes. Over 60 per cent of the world's youth live in Asia and the Pacific, which translates into more than 750 million young women and men aged 15 to 24 years. They represent a key asset for the countries of this region. Young people are a major human resource for development, key agents for social change and driving force for economic development and technological innovation. But harnessing these resources is a major challenge. The youth challenge is considered as the most critical of the 21st century's economic development challenge. In this context, this paper examines the labour market characteristics for adults and the entire population. Then it analyses challenges and opportunities in labour market for youth. Next, the paper discusses the existing and needed policies for taking care of the challenges in overall and youth labour markets. It also provides conclusions and recommendations. We also highlight the gender issues in the paper. The recommendations include direct policies such as active lbour market policies, social protection programmes, fair migration and indirect policies like pro employment macro policies. There are significant links between creating employment opportunities for the youth and enhancement of human development. Employment and livelihoods particularly productive youth employment has impact on most of the indicators of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). They can reduce poverty, under nutrition, improve the education, health and gender equality. |
| Keywords: | Youth employment, unemployment, active labour market policies, social protection, maternity benefits, employment injury, disability benefits, migration, skill development, pro employment macro policies |
| JEL: | J21 J23 J24 J28 J30 J61 J83 |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ind:igiwpp:2014-041&r=sea |
| By: | Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Regional and Sustainable Development Department, ADB); ; |
| Abstract: | Civil society organizations, including nongovernment organizations (NGOs), are important stakeholders of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). This report is a compilation of ADB’s engagement with civil society organizations, including NGOs, at the policy and strategy, country and regional programing, and project operations. ADB’s NGO and Civil Society Center, ADB focal points throughout the Bank, and the institution as one entity, seek to strengthen cooperation with civil society in the understanding that engagement of all stakeholders can further increase and boost development effectiveness. |
| Keywords: | Cooperation, civil society, biennial report, good governance, human rights, environmental sustainability, community-based organizations, social movements, labor unions, CSO |
| Date: | 2014–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:asd:wpaper:rpt146284&r=sea |
| By: | Massimo Geloso Grosso; Iza Lejárraga; Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås; Frédéric Gonzales; Sébastien Miroudot; Asako Ueno; Dorothée Rouzet |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the services trade restrictiveness indices (STRIs) for construction, architecture and engineering services. The STRIs are composite indices taking values between zero and one, zero representing an open market and one a market completely closed to foreign services providers. The indices are calculated for 40 countries, the 34 OECD members and Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa. This report presents the first vintage of indicators for construction, architecture and engineering services and captures de jure regulations in force in 2013. The results for construction services indicate that the overall level of restrictiveness is relatively low, ranging from 0.05 to 0.32, with an average of 0.16. The more elevated levels of restriction can be largely attributed to general measures affecting all sectors of the economy. The STRI also supports the view that architecture and engineering services are less restrictively regulated than other accredited professional services, notably legal and accounting services. The average value for the STRI among the countries in the sample is 0.22 for architecture services, connoting a relatively low degree of regulatory restrictiveness; the corresponding value is only marginally lower, 0.2, for engineering services. The majority of regulations affecting trade in these sectors concern the movement of people. |
| Keywords: | services trade, construction services, engineering services, services trade restrictions, regulation, architecture services |
| JEL: | F13 F14 K33 L74 L84 |
| Date: | 2014–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:170-en&r=sea |
| By: | Dorothée Rouzet; Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås; Frederic Gonzales; Massimo Geloso Grosso; Iza Lejárraga; Sébastien Miroudot; Asako Ueno |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the services trade restrictiveness indices (STRIs) for financial services. The STRIs are composite indices taking values between zero and one, zero representing an open market and one a market completely closed to foreign services providers. The indices are calculated for 40 countries, the 34 OECD members and Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa. The STRIs capture de jure restrictions. This report presents the first vintage of indicators for commercial banking and insurance services and captures regulations in force in 2013. The scores in commercial banking range between 0.06 and 0.55, with a sample average of 0.19. The scores in insurance services range between 0.05 and 0.63, with a sample average of 0.20. The results are mainly driven by restrictions on market entry, where significant impediments remain in the form of foreign equity limits, restrictions on legal form, discriminatory licensing criteria and restrictions on cross-border transactions. Barriers to competition, including regulation of products and prices and preferential treatment granted to state-owned financial institutions, also make a substantive contribution to the index values. The paper presents the list of measures included in the indices, the scoring and weighting system for calculating the indices and an analysis of the results. |
| Keywords: | trade policy, bank, trade in services, services trade restrictions, regulation, insurance, regulatory reform, services liberalisation |
| JEL: | F13 F14 F21 G21 G22 G28 L88 |
| Date: | 2014–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:175-en&r=sea |
| By: | Massimo Geloso Grosso; Hildegunn Kyvik Nordås; Asako Ueno; Frederic Gonzales; Iza Lejárraga; Sébastien Miroudot; Dorothée Rouzet |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the services trade restrictiveness indices (STRIs) for transport and courier services. The STRIs are composite indices taking values between zero and one, zero representing an open market and one a market completely closed to foreign services providers. The indices are calculated for 40 countries, the 34 OECD members and Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa. This report presents the first vintage of indicators for transport and courier services and captures de jure regulations in force in 2013. The STRI supports the view that these services are subject to very different regulatory frameworks and, in some cases, to a relatively elevated degree of regulation. Indices for air transport covering measures affecting commercial establishment and accompanying movement of natural persons are on average quite high (0.43), with little variation across countries. A preliminary assessment of restrictiveness in cross-border trade in the sector shows that, while some progress in easing restrictions has been achieved through open skies agreements, significant limitations remain in place. The maritime transport sector is moderately open with an average STRI of 0.25. Foreign equity restrictions are still quite common in the sector and contribute significantly to the index. Most other sector-specific restrictions are found in the cabotage market and in ports. In road freight transport, the results confirm that the domestic road freight transport regime has been significantly liberalised over the years, and currently commercial establishment in the sector is largely affected by horizontal measures. The overall level of restrictiveness is relatively low with an average of 0.16, but exhibits pretty large variation. With respect to rail freight, the STRI also supports the view that considerable reforms have been undertaken in the sector in the past decades. The average level of restrictiveness is moderate at 0.22, although two countries maintain a statutory state-owned monopoly, which implies that the sector is completely closed to foreign suppliers. Finally, for courier services the results show that the overall level of restrictiveness is moderate with a sample average of 0.26. There is, however, large variation in STRI indices among countries. The elevated levels of restrictiveness are found in countries where foreign equity restrictions or statutory monopolies exist. |
| Keywords: | services trade, courier services, transport services, services trade restrictions, regulation |
| JEL: | F13 F14 K33 L87 L91 L92 L93 |
| Date: | 2014–11–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:traaab:176-en&r=sea |
| By: | Tomoki Fujii (School of Economics, Singapore Management University, Singapore, 178903); Denis H.Y. Leung (School of Economics, Singapore Management University, Singapore, 178903) |
| Abstract: | Objective: To find lower and upper bounds of HIV prevalence in Malawi under mild and intuitive assumptions to assess the importance of the refusal issue in the estimation of HIV prevalence. Methods: We derive bounds based on the following two key assumptions: (i) Among those who have never taken an HIV test before, those who refuse to take an HIV test (hereafter “refusers”) have at least as much risk to be HIV positive as those who participate in the HIV test, and (ii) among the refusers, those who have a prior testing experience are at least as likely to be HIV positive as those who have no prior experience. We compute the bounds using the Malawi Demographic and Health Survey and a longitudinal data set with a HIV testing component collected in the Malawi Diffusion and Ideational Change Project disaggregated by the sex, urban/rural areas, and three regions of Malawi. Findings: The bounds of HIV prevalence vary substantially across geographic and demographic groups. In particular, the bounds for males are tighter than those for females and the bounds for the Northern region are also tighter than those for other regions. There is no substantial difference in the width of bounds between the rural and urban populations. Conclusion: Bounds are useful for assessing the influence of refusal bias without the need for strong assumptions. Refusal issue is less of a concern if bounds are tight. However, when bounds are wide, refusal issue may be important. |
| Keywords: | Bias; Demographic and Health Surveys; Malawi; Missing data; Non-response; Refusals; Surveys |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:siu:wpaper:17-2014&r=sea |
| By: | Loh, Roger (Singapore Management University); Stulz, Rene M. (OH State University and ECGI, Brussels) |
| Abstract: | In bad times, uncertainty is high, so that investors find it more difficult to assess the prospects of the firms they invest in. Learning models suggest that in such times investors should, everything else equal, value informative signals such as analyst forecasts and recommendations more than in good times. However, the higher uncertainty in bad times and career concerns stemming from troubled employers may make the task of analysts harder, so that analyst output is noisier and hence less valuable in bad times. Consequently, whether analyst forecasts and recommendations are more valuable during bad times is an empirical matter. We examine a large sample of analyst output from 1983 to 2011. We find that analysts work harder in bad times, but their earnings forecasts accuracy is worse and that they disagree more. Despite more inaccurate earnings forecasts, revisions to earnings forecasts and stock recommendations have a more influential stock-price impact during bad times as predicted by a learning model. |
| JEL: | G14 G20 G24 |
| Date: | 2013–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2013-19&r=sea |