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on South East Asia |
| By: | Essahbi Essaadi (Unité d'Analyse Quantitative Appliquée (UAQUAP)-ISG Tunis and GATE (UMR 5824 CNRS),); Jamel Jouini (F.S.E.G.N., E.S.S.A.I. and L.E.G.I., Université 7 Novembre de Carthage, Tunisie, GREQAM, Université de la Méditerranée, France); Walih Khallouli (Unité d'Analyse Quantitative Appliquée (UAQUAP) and ESSEC, Université de Tunis, Tunisie) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we are interested in testing for contagion caused by the Thai bath collapse in July 1997. In line with earlier work, shift-contagion is defined as a structural change in the international propagation mechanisms of financial shocks. We adopt the Bai and Perron’s (1998) structural break approach to detect the endogenous break points in the pair-wise time-varying correlations between Thailand and seven Asian stock market returns. Our approach allows solving the misspecification problem of crisis window. Our results indicate the existence of shift-contagion in the Asian crisis caused by the crisis in Thailand. |
| Keywords: | sequential selection procedure, shift-contagion, time-varying correlation |
| JEL: | C22 G15 |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gat:wpaper:0725&r=sea |
| By: | Orden, David; Cheng, Fuzhi; Nguyen, Hoa; Grote, Ulrike; Thomas, Marcelle; Mullen, Kathleen; Sun, Dongsheng |
| Abstract: | "This study analyzes the evolution of agricultural policies from 1985 to 2002 in India, Indonesia, China, and Vietnam and provides empirical estimates of the degree of protection or disprotection to agriculture in these four countries, both by key commodities and in aggregate... Taken together the reported measures of support and disprotection of specific crops and agriculture in total provide a reasonable basis for assessing the stance of agricultural policies of India, Indonesia, China, and Vietnam. Attention to measurement issues provides a sensitivity analysis. The results reported are indicative of the range of outcomes likely to be found more broadly among developing countries. From regimes of heavy intervention in agricultural markets, each of the four countries in the study has undergone a substantial reform process." from text |
| Keywords: | Agricultural support, Agricultural policies, Reform, |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fpr:resrep:152&r=sea |
| By: | Armida Alisjahbana (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University); Chris Manning |
| Abstract: | This paper examines trends in non-farm employment and associated labor market constraints that have hindered the growth of non-farm employment (NFE) since the economic crisis in 1997-98. We observed, among others, apparent negative correlation between employment growth in agriculture and NFE, the high rate of urban employment growth, which was more than double the rate in rural areas, and the slow growth of formal sector employment – in both rural and urban areas and in farm and in non-farm sectors. Some policy implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | labor market constraints, non farm enterprises, Indonesia |
| JEL: | J0 J2 J7 |
| Date: | 2007–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unp:wpaper:200711&r=sea |
| By: | Alex Mandilaras (University of Surrey); Helen Popper (University of Santa Clara) |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the capital flows of seven Southeast Asian emerging economies over the last decade and a half. It first evaluates the role of economic conditions within a country itself, including the country's domestic financial conditions and the openness of its financial markets to international capital flows. Then, the role of the counties' own domestic conditions is compared with regional influences and with the importance of macroeconomic conditions elsewhere, such as in Europe, and in the largest single recipient of the outflows, the United States. Key results include: (1) domestic capital market conditions are the best predictors (among the variables that we examine) of the capital flows of these countries; (2) capital market openness is of little use in predicting changes in capital flows; and, (3) while the macroeconomic conditions of the United States are strong predictors of subsequent GDP growth in the region, they are not, by themselves, good predictors of the region's capital flows. |
| Keywords: | Global Imbalances, Financial Market Capitalization, Productivity |
| JEL: | F32 |
| Date: | 2007–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sur:surrec:1407&r=sea |
| By: | Robert C. Allen |
| Abstract: | The paper compares the standard of living of labourers in the Roman Empire in 301 AD with the standard of living of labourers in Europe and Asia from the middle ages to the industrial revolution. Roman data are drawn from Diocletian`s Price Edict. The real wage of Roman workers was like that of their counterparts in the lagging parts of Europe and much of Asia in the middle of the eighteenth century. Roman workers earned just enough to buy a minimal subsistence consumption basket. Real wages were considerably higher in the advanced parts of Europe in the eighteenth century, as they had been in Europe generally following the Black Death in 1348-9. |
| Keywords: | Standard of Living, Real Wage, Roman Empire, Long Run Economic Growth |
| JEL: | J31 N30 O47 |
| Date: | 2007 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oxf:wpaper:363&r=sea |
| By: | Changhui Kang (Department of Economics, National University of Singapore) |
| Abstract: | The causal relationship between educational investments and student outcomes continues to attract attention. The majority of studies have examined the effectiveness of public school expenditures or private school attendance on student outcomes. This paper contributes to the literature by examining the effectiveness of an unexplored dimension of educational inputs—private tutoring expenditures of South Korean parents. In the face of difficulties in causal estimation, the paper employs a nonparametric bounding method that is recently gaining popularity. With the method we show that the true effect of private tutoring remains at most modest. The tightest bounds suggest that a 10 percent increase in expenditure raises a student's test score by 0.764 percent at the largest. Such a modest effect remains similar across male and female students, and across students of different ability levels. |
| Keywords: | Private Tutoring, Test Scores, Nonparametric Bounds, South Korea |
| JEL: | I20 C30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nus:nusewp:wp0707&r=sea |