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on Project, Program and Portfolio Management |
| By: | Lorko, Matej; Servátka, Maroš; Zhang, Le |
| Abstract: | The success of a business project often depends on the accuracy of project estimates. Inaccurate, often overoptimistic schedules can lead to significant project failures. In this paper, we experimentally investigate the effectiveness of two interventions designed to mitigate the pervasive underestimation bias and improve the accuracy of project duration estimates: (1) increasing the quantity of available information prior to estimation by providing historical information regarding the average duration of similar projects in the past and (2) increasing the quality of available information prior to estimation by providing a more detailed project specification. In addition, we also test whether it is more effective to provide historical information together with the project specification or only after the initial beliefs regarding the project duration are formed. We find that increasing both the quantity and quality of project relevant information successfully mitigates the underestimation bias. However, only the provision of historical information is also associated with significant improvement in absolute estimation accuracy. The timing at which such information is disclosed to planners does not seem to influence the effectiveness of the intervention. We also find that subjective confidence in the accuracy of duration estimates does not vary across experimental treatments, suggesting that the confidence in estimates is neither a function of the quantity nor the quality of available information prior to estimation. |
| Keywords: | project management, project planning, time management, duration estimation, historical information, project specification |
| JEL: | C91 D83 O21 O22 |
| Date: | 2019–08–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:95585&r=all |
| By: | John W. Anderson; Gordon W. Leslie; Frank A. Wolak |
| Abstract: | We investigate the relationship between accumulated experience completing wind power projects and the cost of installing wind projects in the U.S. from 2001-2015. Our modeling framework disentangles accumulated experience from input price changes, scale economies, and exogenous technical change; and accounts for both firm-specific and industry-wide accumulated experience. We find evidence consistent with cost-reducing benefits from firm-specific experience for that firm’s cost of future wind power projects, but no evidence of industry-wide learning from the experience of other participants in the industry. Further, our experience measure rapidly depreciates across time and distance, suggesting a stable industry trajectory would lower project costs. |
| JEL: | L94 O31 O33 |
| Date: | 2019–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26114&r=all |
| By: | Hoppe, Eva I.; Schmitz, Patrick W. |
| Abstract: | The government wants an infrastructure-based public service to be provided. First, the infrastructure has to be built; subsequently, it has to be operated. Should the government bundle the building and operating tasks in a public-private partnership? Or should it choose traditional procurement, i.e. delegate the tasks to different firms? Each task entails unobservable investments to come up with innovations. It turns out that depending on the nature of the innovations, bundling may either stimulate or discourage investments. Moreover, we find that if renegotiation cannot be prevented, public-private partnerships may lead the government to deliberately opt for technologically inferior projects. |
| Keywords: | Contract theory; procurement; public-private partnerships; moral hazard; renegotiation |
| JEL: | D86 H11 H54 H57 L33 |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:95615&r=all |
| By: | El hussieny, Nader; Gharib, Heba Ibrahim; Khamis, Mohab Ibrahim |
| Abstract: | The mobile market has experienced a huge surge in growth across the globe. However, mobile network operators are still struggling to extend coverage to rural areas. Universal Service would appear to be an emerging concept; the reason for this is that Universal Service aims to support the telecom rural connectivity therefore increases the competition. The expanding interest in extending the mobile coverage to rural areas has promoted the advancement in the elaboration of universal services policies and mechanisms. Universal service policies tend to focus on projects selection criteria mechanisms and funding mechanisms to achieve the policy goals. In this paper, we proposed universal service mechanisms able to optimize and enhance the universal service project quantity and quality in terms of: 1) coverage area, 2) network growth and 3) BTS average cost, 4) Planned time, and 5) Technology used in order to connect the underserved and rural areas in an effective and efficient manner. This paper does not intend to deal extensively with all the relevant aspects of Universal Service, but seeks primarily a regulatory/policy approach. The paper starts by formulating the definition of Universal Service and outlining the changes in the concept of Universal Service from a policy and regulatory perspective. The paper reveals that connecting remote and rural regions has presented tough challenges for the telecom industry. The paper then looks into the possibilities for further developing Universal Service policies. Then the paper discusses universal service projects quantity and quality factors. The paper also discusses the different aspects of projects quality, as projects tend to follow the triple constraint: scope, schedule, and budget. The paper also discusses thoroughly how to measure the projects quality. The paper will measure the quality and quantity of universal service projects before and after updating the universal service policy to compare between both results and to prove that the updated universal service policy has an impact on the number of projects and the quality of them and by applying and developing the different concepts of universal service policies, the quantity and quality of US projects will be improved and enhanced. |
| Keywords: | universal Service,universal service policies,mobile coverage,projects quality,universal service projects,rural areas |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsm19:201757&r=all |
| By: | Pang Long (SEGi university); Mui Yee Cheok (Berjaya University College) |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to propose a better management method of the practice under different circumstances for formulating strategy in project management of construction industry. The empirical data were absorbed from 40 studies related to project management between 1997 to 2017 by using Systematic Literature Review (SLR) approach. Based on these data, the researcher analysed and identified the better management methods: the uncertainty management, and also found some opportunities and gaps of further research. In conclusion, a better management method for project management under uncertainty circumstance may be able to enhance the strategy formulation of project management. |
| Keywords: | Project management, Management Method, Uncertainty, Strategy Formulation, Information |
| JEL: | D80 D81 D89 |
| Date: | 2019–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sek:ibmpro:8511326&r=all |
| By: | Eberhardt, Winfried |
| Abstract: | The following working paper is a deliverable of the project “Dynamics of local supply in rural areas”. The paper focuses on funding programmes in Germany in the context of the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD). Particular consideration is paid to the current funding directives on national and state level in the current period from 2014 to 2020. In addition, initiatives from Austria at the county-level, which aim for an improvement of local supplies, are presented. A detailed overview over existing programmes, strategies and approaches are the core of this paper. An extensive literature review, the evaluation of databases and the analysis of documents are the methodological foundation for this working paper. Furthermore, results from conferences and further enquiries to experts for funding are incorporated. The following working paper is a deliverable of the project “Dynamics of local supply in rural areas”. The paper focuses on funding programmes in Germany in the context of the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD). Particular consideration is paid to the current funding directives on national and state level in the current period from 2014 to 2020. In addition, initiatives from Austria at the county-level, which aim for an improvement of local supplies, are presented. A detailed overview over existing programmes, strategies and approaches are the core of this paper. An extensive literature review, the evaluation of databases and the analysis of documents are the methodological foundation for this working paper. Furthermore, results from conferences and further enquiries to experts for funding are incorporated.Compared to the previous funding period (2007-2013) several aspects were given increased consideration. For example, consulting in the preliminary stage, situation analysis at the designated location (local needs), proof of economic viability and public participation during the conceptualisation, have frequently become a prerequisite. Moreover, subsidies for mobile services are frequently and explicitly mentioned as eligible. Common objects of support are investment subsidies for construction measures and material assets, but also consulting and/or engineering services that are related to the projects. In some federal states the property acquisition as well as the purchase of buildings, the equipping and/or reconstruction works, can be subsidised. Apart from that, some federal states provide consulting services of both existing and planned village shops. In case of economic constraints or difficulties, some state banks and guarantee banks provide aid. Examples of funding instruments from Austria that do not exist in this form in Germany broaden the content of this report. This includes operating grants for small-scale suppliers (food-stores up to a maximum of 400m² sales area), grants for home-delivery services and digital means of communication for the enhancement of the customer base. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Public Economics |
| Date: | 2019–08–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:jhimwp:292324&r=all |
| By: | Kikuchi, Masao; Mano, Yukichi; Njagi, Tim; Merrey, Douglas; Otsuka, Keijiro |
| Abstract: | The main reason for the success of the 20th century Green Revolution in Asia was the development of large-scale irrigation projects. But, since the late 1990s, these investments were out of the development agenda, partly because the success of the Green Revolution reduced the need for such irrigation development and partly because the lower-than-expected performance of many large-scale irrigation projects resulted from difficulties in designing, constructing, operating, and managing large-scale irrigation schemes. This was the case in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) as well. During the past decade, however, large-scale irrigation development seems to be coming back in SSA as a means to promote a Green Revolution there. This revival has evoked heated discussion as to whether the conditions that made the large-scale irrigation projects an infeasible option have been overcome. This paper examines whether large-scale irrigation construction in SSA is economically feasible by estimating how much it would cost if the Mwea Irrigation Scheme in Kenya, one of the best performing irrigation schemes in SSA, were to be constructed today as a brand-new scheme. The results show that the new construction of the Mwea Scheme may be economically viable if the shadow price of rice is as high as the world price that prevailed during the mini-rice crisis in 2008-2013; however, the viability is marginal, by no means robust. The project costs per unit of beneficiary irrigated area of our 'Mwea Project' and a few 21st century large-scale irrigation projects under planning or under construction are two to four times higher than those of 20th-century counterparts. For such expensive projects to be economically viable, the agricultural performance of these projects must be two to four times higher as well, which means, in terms of rice yield, 9 t/ha/year to 20 t/ha/year. There is certainly untapped potential in SSA for large-scale irrigation development, either construction of new schemes or rehabilitation of the existing ones, but the economically feasible potential remains limited. International donor agencies and national governments wanting to plan large-scale irrigation projects are recommended to assess seriously whether their plan is economically and technologically feasible and indisputably superior to other types of irrigation development, many of which were not available during the construction boom in the 20th century but are available now. |
| Date: | 2019–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-87&r=all |
| By: | Howell, Bronwyn E.; Potgieter, Petrus H.; Sadowski, Bert M. |
| Abstract: | Blockchains are the most well-known example of a distributed ledger technology (DLT). Unlike classic databases, the ledger is not maintained by any central authority. The integrity of the ledger is maintained automatically by an algorithmic consensus process whereby nodes vote and agree upon the authoritative version. In effect, the consensus algorithm operates in the manner of a decision-making process within a governance system. The technological characteristics of blockchain systems are well documented (Narayanan, Bonneau, Felton and Miller, 2016). We propose that one of the reasons why it has so far proved very difficult to seed large-scale commercial DLT (blockchain) projects lies in the arena of project ownership and governance. Unlike classic centralised database systems, DLTs have no one central point of "ownership" of any of the system's infrastructure or data. In this piece of exploratory research, we propose applying theories of club governance to both the technical design and operational development of a range of DLT (blockchain) systems, including (but not necessarily limited to) cryptocurrencies and enterprise applications to explore how they can explain the development of (or lack of development of) sustainable solutions to real business problems. There are many parallels to the governance arrangements observed historically in the origins of complex distributed telecommunications networks. |
| Keywords: | blockchain,distributed ledger,governance,club governance,distributed consensus |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:itsm19:201737&r=all |